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000
FXUS64 KCRP 222332
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
532 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT EARLY TNGT AND WITH LLVL
MSTR IN PLACE EXPECT TO QUICKLY SEE VIS/CIGS DETERIORATE.
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE LRD WHERE AIR IS A LITTLE DRIER. MAINTAINED
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALI/CRP/VCT GENERALLY AFTER 06-08Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE VERY QUICKLY BY MIDDAY TUE AS GUSTY NW
WINDS DVLP ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST
NEAR 30 KTS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTN FRI.

QUICK MAINTENANCE NOTE - THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT ALI APPEARS TO
BE MALFUNCTIONING. REPAIR PERSONNEL HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED BUT UNTIL
THE ISSUE IS RESOLVED WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING AMENDMENTS FOR THE SITE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE
FOG TONIGHT AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY (THUS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES). FOG AGAIN LOOKS REASONABLE TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND AGAIN HOW DENSE IT GETS WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND HOW STRONG ARE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA (OR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS)...BUT ALSO IN
LOCATIONS WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ALSO...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DOES NOT GET
SCOURED OUT SO WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME STRATUS WITH THE FOG. IN
SHORT...AM EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. DID NOT
CHANGE AREAS OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT LOOKED GOOD.

FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ENTERING THE GULF
EITHER LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH COUPLED JET WILL PRODUCE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. THAT...ALONG WITH FRONT
COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA...BUT MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES OTHER LOCATIONS. THINK MUCH OF
THE RAIN WILL BE SPRINKLES (WITH MOST ENERGY AND DIFFLUENCE TO THE
NORTH AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 8000 TO 10000
FEET). CONCERNING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AM GOING CLOSER
TO THE NAM/NAM-MOS VALUES AS EXPECT AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
FRONT WILL BE LATE WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO WARM UP A BIT (AND 2
METER TEMPERATURES FROM OTHER MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME 70S BEFORE
FROPA). COOLER AND BREEZY/WINDY BEHIND FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING AND COOLER ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND AM GENERALLY USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THERE (GENERALLY WARMER SIDE THOUGH) SINCE
MOS HAS BEEN A BIT COOL DURING STRONG FROPAS THIS YEAR AND LAST
YEAR TOO.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE AND FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 40 KNOTS. ERGO...GALE WATCH. NO GALE WARNING YET DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AND SINCE CRITERION WILL BE MET ONLY ON GUSTS AND NOT
SUSTAINED (MID SHIFT CAN LOOK AT AND DECIDE SCA OR GALE). WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL MARINE INTERESTS
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY
MAINLY OFFSHORE.

FIRE WEATHER (TUESDAY)...WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. NW WINDS MAY STILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS S TX
WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WED
NIGHT WILL ALLOW OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. MN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY THU
MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE HAS 30 DEGREES FOR COT AND 32-34 FOR VCT. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MODELS WHICH KEEPS MN TEMPS ABV FREEZING. SUNNY
SKIES AND INCREASING SLY WINDS ON THU WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS...BUT REMAINING MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AREA-WIDE. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO FRI AHD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH
MODELS PROG TO MOVE THRU S TX ON SAT. MODELS PROG INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHC
OF -RA FOR THE EASTERN CWA AND COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
OF -RA IS FCST TO CONTINUE INTO SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DVLPS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  AS A RESULT...MCLDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY NEXT
MONDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN FLOW USHERING IN WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  61  73  42  60  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA          76  59  65  40  58  /  10  10  30  10  10
LAREDO            81  59  71  42  61  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             80  60  72  42  60  /  10  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          73  63  70  47  60  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           78  52  64  37  61  /   0  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  60  75  44  61  /  10  10  10   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  63  72  47  61  /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JOHNSTONE






000
FXUS64 KCRP 222332
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
532 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT EARLY TNGT AND WITH LLVL
MSTR IN PLACE EXPECT TO QUICKLY SEE VIS/CIGS DETERIORATE.
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE LRD WHERE AIR IS A LITTLE DRIER. MAINTAINED
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALI/CRP/VCT GENERALLY AFTER 06-08Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE VERY QUICKLY BY MIDDAY TUE AS GUSTY NW
WINDS DVLP ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST
NEAR 30 KTS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTN FRI.

QUICK MAINTENANCE NOTE - THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT ALI APPEARS TO
BE MALFUNCTIONING. REPAIR PERSONNEL HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED BUT UNTIL
THE ISSUE IS RESOLVED WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING AMENDMENTS FOR THE SITE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE
FOG TONIGHT AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY (THUS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES). FOG AGAIN LOOKS REASONABLE TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND AGAIN HOW DENSE IT GETS WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND HOW STRONG ARE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA (OR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS)...BUT ALSO IN
LOCATIONS WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ALSO...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DOES NOT GET
SCOURED OUT SO WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME STRATUS WITH THE FOG. IN
SHORT...AM EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. DID NOT
CHANGE AREAS OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT LOOKED GOOD.

FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ENTERING THE GULF
EITHER LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH COUPLED JET WILL PRODUCE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. THAT...ALONG WITH FRONT
COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA...BUT MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES OTHER LOCATIONS. THINK MUCH OF
THE RAIN WILL BE SPRINKLES (WITH MOST ENERGY AND DIFFLUENCE TO THE
NORTH AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 8000 TO 10000
FEET). CONCERNING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AM GOING CLOSER
TO THE NAM/NAM-MOS VALUES AS EXPECT AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
FRONT WILL BE LATE WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO WARM UP A BIT (AND 2
METER TEMPERATURES FROM OTHER MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME 70S BEFORE
FROPA). COOLER AND BREEZY/WINDY BEHIND FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING AND COOLER ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND AM GENERALLY USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THERE (GENERALLY WARMER SIDE THOUGH) SINCE
MOS HAS BEEN A BIT COOL DURING STRONG FROPAS THIS YEAR AND LAST
YEAR TOO.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE AND FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 40 KNOTS. ERGO...GALE WATCH. NO GALE WARNING YET DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AND SINCE CRITERION WILL BE MET ONLY ON GUSTS AND NOT
SUSTAINED (MID SHIFT CAN LOOK AT AND DECIDE SCA OR GALE). WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL MARINE INTERESTS
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY
MAINLY OFFSHORE.

FIRE WEATHER (TUESDAY)...WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. NW WINDS MAY STILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS S TX
WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WED
NIGHT WILL ALLOW OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. MN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY THU
MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE HAS 30 DEGREES FOR COT AND 32-34 FOR VCT. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MODELS WHICH KEEPS MN TEMPS ABV FREEZING. SUNNY
SKIES AND INCREASING SLY WINDS ON THU WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS...BUT REMAINING MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AREA-WIDE. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO FRI AHD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH
MODELS PROG TO MOVE THRU S TX ON SAT. MODELS PROG INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHC
OF -RA FOR THE EASTERN CWA AND COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
OF -RA IS FCST TO CONTINUE INTO SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DVLPS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  AS A RESULT...MCLDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY NEXT
MONDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN FLOW USHERING IN WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  61  73  42  60  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA          76  59  65  40  58  /  10  10  30  10  10
LAREDO            81  59  71  42  61  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             80  60  72  42  60  /  10  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          73  63  70  47  60  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           78  52  64  37  61  /   0  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  60  75  44  61  /  10  10  10   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  63  72  47  61  /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JOHNSTONE







000
FXUS64 KCRP 222121
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
321 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE
FOG TONIGHT AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY (THUS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES). FOG AGAIN LOOKS REASONABLE TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND AGAIN HOW DENSE IT GETS WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND HOW STRONG ARE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA (OR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS)...BUT ALSO IN
LOCATIONS WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ALSO...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DOES NOT GET
SCOURED OUT SO WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME STRATUS WITH THE FOG. IN
SHORT...AM EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. DID NOT
CHANGE AREAS OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT LOOKED GOOD.

FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ENTERING THE GULF
EITHER LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH COUPLED JET WILL PRODUCE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. THAT...ALONG WITH FRONT
COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA...BUT MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES OTHER LOCATIONS. THINK MUCH OF
THE RAIN WILL BE SPRINKLES (WITH MOST ENERGY AND DIFFLUENCE TO THE
NORTH AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 8000 TO 10000
FEET). CONCERNING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AM GOING CLOSER
TO THE NAM/NAM-MOS VALUES AS EXPECT AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
FRONT WILL BE LATE WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO WARM UP A BIT (AND 2
METER TEMPERATURES FROM OTHER MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME 70S BEFORE
FROPA). COOLER AND BREEZY/WINDY BEHIND FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING AND COOLER ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND AM GENERALLY USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THERE (GENERALLY WARMER SIDE THOUGH) SINCE
MOS HAS BEEN A BIT COOL DURING STRONG FROPAS THIS YEAR AND LAST
YEAR TOO.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE AND FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 40 KNOTS. ERGO...GALE WATCH. NO GALE WARNING YET DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AND SINCE CRITERION WILL BE MET ONLY ON GUSTS AND NOT
SUSTAINED (MID SHIFT CAN LOOK AT AND DECIDE SCA OR GALE). WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL MARINE INTERESTS
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY
MAINLY OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER (TUESDAY)...WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.

&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. NW WINDS MAY STILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS S TX
WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WED
NIGHT WILL ALLOW OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. MN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY THU
MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE HAS 30 DEGREES FOR COT AND 32-34 FOR VCT. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MODELS WHICH KEEPS MN TEMPS ABV FREEZING. SUNNY
SKIES AND INCREASING SLY WINDS ON THU WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS...BUT REMAINING MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AREA-WIDE. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO FRI AHD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH
MODELS PROG TO MOVE THRU S TX ON SAT. MODELS PROG INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHC
OF -RA FOR THE EASTERN CWA AND COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
OF -RA IS FCST TO CONTINUE INTO SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DVLPS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  AS A RESULT...MCLDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY NEXT
MONDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN FLOW USHERING IN WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  73  42  60  35  /  10  10   0  10   0
VICTORIA          59  65  40  58  34  /  10  30  10  10   0
LAREDO            59  71  42  61  39  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             60  72  42  60  34  /  10  10   0  10   0
ROCKPORT          63  70  47  60  41  /  10  20  10  10   0
COTULLA           52  64  37  61  34  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        60  75  44  61  34  /  10  10   0  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       63  72  47  61  44  /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 222121
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
321 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE
FOG TONIGHT AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY (THUS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES). FOG AGAIN LOOKS REASONABLE TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND AGAIN HOW DENSE IT GETS WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND HOW STRONG ARE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA (OR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS)...BUT ALSO IN
LOCATIONS WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ALSO...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DOES NOT GET
SCOURED OUT SO WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME STRATUS WITH THE FOG. IN
SHORT...AM EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. DID NOT
CHANGE AREAS OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT LOOKED GOOD.

FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ENTERING THE GULF
EITHER LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH COUPLED JET WILL PRODUCE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. THAT...ALONG WITH FRONT
COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA...BUT MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES OTHER LOCATIONS. THINK MUCH OF
THE RAIN WILL BE SPRINKLES (WITH MOST ENERGY AND DIFFLUENCE TO THE
NORTH AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 8000 TO 10000
FEET). CONCERNING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AM GOING CLOSER
TO THE NAM/NAM-MOS VALUES AS EXPECT AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
FRONT WILL BE LATE WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO WARM UP A BIT (AND 2
METER TEMPERATURES FROM OTHER MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME 70S BEFORE
FROPA). COOLER AND BREEZY/WINDY BEHIND FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING AND COOLER ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND AM GENERALLY USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THERE (GENERALLY WARMER SIDE THOUGH) SINCE
MOS HAS BEEN A BIT COOL DURING STRONG FROPAS THIS YEAR AND LAST
YEAR TOO.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE AND FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 40 KNOTS. ERGO...GALE WATCH. NO GALE WARNING YET DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AND SINCE CRITERION WILL BE MET ONLY ON GUSTS AND NOT
SUSTAINED (MID SHIFT CAN LOOK AT AND DECIDE SCA OR GALE). WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL MARINE INTERESTS
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY
MAINLY OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER (TUESDAY)...WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.

&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. NW WINDS MAY STILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS S TX
WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WED
NIGHT WILL ALLOW OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. MN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY THU
MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE HAS 30 DEGREES FOR COT AND 32-34 FOR VCT. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MODELS WHICH KEEPS MN TEMPS ABV FREEZING. SUNNY
SKIES AND INCREASING SLY WINDS ON THU WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS...BUT REMAINING MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AREA-WIDE. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO FRI AHD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH
MODELS PROG TO MOVE THRU S TX ON SAT. MODELS PROG INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHC
OF -RA FOR THE EASTERN CWA AND COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
OF -RA IS FCST TO CONTINUE INTO SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DVLPS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  AS A RESULT...MCLDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY NEXT
MONDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN FLOW USHERING IN WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  73  42  60  35  /  10  10   0  10   0
VICTORIA          59  65  40  58  34  /  10  30  10  10   0
LAREDO            59  71  42  61  39  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             60  72  42  60  34  /  10  10   0  10   0
ROCKPORT          63  70  47  60  41  /  10  20  10  10   0
COTULLA           52  64  37  61  34  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        60  75  44  61  34  /  10  10   0  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       63  72  47  61  44  /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221808 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1208 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST BASED ON NEW
FORECAST DATA BUT ALSO ON THE FACT THAT WHERE CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED
TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A HARD TIME TO MOVE UP. THEY WILL MOVE UP
RAPIDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY NOT REACH SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TODAY (AT LEAST THAT IS THE THINKING).
HOWEVER...MOST OTHER AREAS WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE IF NOT MAYBE
EXCEED THEIR HIGHS...SO DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH. OTHER
MODIFICATIONS TO FIRST PERIOD AND SOME SECOND PERIOD
PARAMETERS... BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES AFTER THE FIRST
PERIOD UNTIL NEW MODEL DATA IS LOOKED AT. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE
OUT.

SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS FINALLY CLEARING AND VFR EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 11 KNOTS...BUT COULD SEE A
FEW GUSTS IN KCRP AND KVCT (DID NOT MENTION IN TERMINALS BECAUSE
BELIEVE BY MID AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL NOT BE TOO FREQUENT).
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MAINLY OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP (EITHER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS) EASTERN
TERMINALS (NOT LAREDO). AM GOING AS LOW AS 1SM FOR VSBYS AND 100
FEET FOR CIGS FOR NOW EASTERN TERMINALS. FRONT STARTS TO COME DOWN
LATE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST (BUT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z IN
KLRD)...AND DRIER WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP DISSIPATE FOG/CLOUDS A
BIT MORE ON TUESDAY BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...SINCE FRONT MAY BE NEAR
THE END OF FORECAST AT KCRP/KVCT...STILL COULD HAVE SOME IFR/MVFR
CIGS LEFT OVER. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF VFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT KCRP AND/OR KVCT BEFORE 23/18Z BUT
TERMINALS ARE ALREADY KIND VERBOSE WITH ALL GOING ON SO HAVE HELD
OFF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR CLOUD COVER...SINCE IT IS TAKING SOME
TIME FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE OUT OF THE AREA. CRP MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
LEVEL SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...AM GOING TO HOLD OFF LOWERING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON (UPDATED THEM EARLIER). KCRP
SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH 80F AND
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE DECK THE POTENTIAL IS
STILL THERE TO REACH THESE. WILL MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG IS LIFT RATHER RAPIDLY...SO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
DITTO FOR THE BAYS...AS NEARBY OBS AND ANY AVAILABLE WEBCAMS SHOW
THAT THE FOG IS LIFTING THERE AS WELL. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AOA
8 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IMPACTING ALL FOUR SOUTH TEXAS
TERMINALS. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN
IS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
HAS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE FOG OVER THE
AREA. NUMEROUS SITES ARE STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG ARE EAST OF A LINE FROM VICTORIA TO BEEVILLE
TO KINGSVILLE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
ELEVATED FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS MORNING.
FOG SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
THE S TO SSW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL REACH
80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...
WITH MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY WENT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN ALL LOCATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODERATE TO STRONG CAA
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN WAKE OF
TUESDAY/S FROPA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A 1020+ MB
HIGH SETTLES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AS PWATS FALL TO LESS THAN .40
INCHES...BUT EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HAVE LOWERED INHERITED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN EXPECTED COLD
AIR DRAINAGE WIND FLOW PATTERN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS/. A
FEW RURAL LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT ATTM THE MAIN NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZE WILL BE IF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THE WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS FOR
MAX TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS...SO I HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND THE
FORECAST NOW REFLECTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND FOR TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
BAYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY PEAK
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FEW TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH
AT THIS TIME GIVEN MARGINAL GALE POTENTIAL. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT REMAIN AT AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
/AS AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  63  64  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  60  61  41  56  /  10  10  20  10   0
LAREDO            81  56  65  44  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
ALICE             80  59  65  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          73  63  64  48  58  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           78  50  64  40  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  60  66  44  59  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  64  65  49  59  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221615 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1015 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR CLOUD COVER...SINCE IT IS TAKING SOME
TIME FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE OUT OF THE AREA. CRP MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
LEVEL SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...AM GOING TO HOLD OFF LOWERING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON (UPDATED THEM EARLIER). KCRP
SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH 80F AND
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE DECK THE POTENTIAL IS
STILL THERE TO REACH THESE. WILL MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG IS LIFT RATHER RAPIDLY...SO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
DITTO FOR THE BAYS...AS NEARBY OBS AND ANY AVAILABLE WEBCAMS SHOW
THAT THE FOG IS LIFTING THERE AS WELL. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AOA
8 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IMPACTING ALL FOUR SOUTH TEXAS
TERMINALS. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN
IS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
HAS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE FOG OVER THE
AREA. NUMEROUS SITES ARE STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG ARE EAST OF A LINE FROM VICTORIA TO BEEVILLE
TO KINGSVILLE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
ELEVATED FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS MORNING.
FOG SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
THE S TO SSW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL REACH
80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...
WITH MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY WENT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN ALL LOCATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODERATE TO STRONG CAA
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN WAKE OF
TUESDAY/S FROPA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A 1020+ MB
HIGH SETTLES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AS PWATS FALL TO LESS THAN .40
INCHES...BUT EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HAVE LOWERED INHERITED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN EXPECTED COLD
AIR DRAINAGE WIND FLOW PATTERN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS/. A
FEW RURAL LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT ATTM THE MAIN NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZE WILL BE IF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THE WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS FOR
MAX TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS...SO I HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND THE
FORECAST NOW REFLECTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND FOR TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
BAYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY PEAK
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FEW TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH
AT THIS TIME GIVEN MARGINAL GALE POTENTIAL. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT REMAIN AT AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
/AS AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  64  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  60  61  41  56  /  10  10  20  10   0
LAREDO            82  56  65  44  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
ALICE             81  59  65  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  63  64  48  58  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           81  50  64  40  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        80  60  66  44  59  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  65  49  59  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221615 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1015 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR CLOUD COVER...SINCE IT IS TAKING SOME
TIME FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE OUT OF THE AREA. CRP MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
LEVEL SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...AM GOING TO HOLD OFF LOWERING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON (UPDATED THEM EARLIER). KCRP
SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH 80F AND
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE DECK THE POTENTIAL IS
STILL THERE TO REACH THESE. WILL MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG IS LIFT RATHER RAPIDLY...SO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
DITTO FOR THE BAYS...AS NEARBY OBS AND ANY AVAILABLE WEBCAMS SHOW
THAT THE FOG IS LIFTING THERE AS WELL. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AOA
8 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IMPACTING ALL FOUR SOUTH TEXAS
TERMINALS. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN
IS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
HAS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE FOG OVER THE
AREA. NUMEROUS SITES ARE STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG ARE EAST OF A LINE FROM VICTORIA TO BEEVILLE
TO KINGSVILLE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
ELEVATED FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS MORNING.
FOG SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
THE S TO SSW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL REACH
80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...
WITH MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY WENT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN ALL LOCATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODERATE TO STRONG CAA
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN WAKE OF
TUESDAY/S FROPA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A 1020+ MB
HIGH SETTLES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AS PWATS FALL TO LESS THAN .40
INCHES...BUT EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HAVE LOWERED INHERITED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN EXPECTED COLD
AIR DRAINAGE WIND FLOW PATTERN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS/. A
FEW RURAL LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT ATTM THE MAIN NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZE WILL BE IF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THE WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS FOR
MAX TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS...SO I HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND THE
FORECAST NOW REFLECTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND FOR TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
BAYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY PEAK
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FEW TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH
AT THIS TIME GIVEN MARGINAL GALE POTENTIAL. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT REMAIN AT AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
/AS AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  64  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  60  61  41  56  /  10  10  20  10   0
LAREDO            82  56  65  44  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
ALICE             81  59  65  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  63  64  48  58  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           81  50  64  40  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        80  60  66  44  59  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  65  49  59  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 221337 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
737 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG IS LIFT RATHER RAPIDLY...SO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
DITTO FOR THE BAYS...AS NEARBY OBS AND ANY AVAILABLE WEBCAMS SHOW
THAT THE FOG IS LIFTING THERE AS WELL. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AOA
8 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IMPACTING ALL FOUR SOUTH TEXAS
TERMINALS. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN
IS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
HAS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE FOG OVER THE
AREA. NUMEROUS SITES ARE STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG ARE EAST OF A LINE FROM VICTORIA TO BEEVILLE
TO KINGSVILLE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
ELEVATED FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS MORNING.
FOG SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
THE S TO SSW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL REACH
80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...
WITH MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY WENT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN ALL LOCATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODERATE TO STRONG CAA
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN WAKE OF
TUESDAY/S FROPA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A 1020+ MB
HIGH SETTLES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AS PWATS FALL TO LESS THAN .40
INCHES...BUT EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HAVE LOWERED INHERITED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN EXPECTED COLD
AIR DRAINAGE WIND FLOW PATTERN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS/. A
FEW RURAL LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT ATTM THE MAIN NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZE WILL BE IF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THE WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS FOR
MAX TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS...SO I HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND THE
FORECAST NOW REFLECTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND FOR TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
BAYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY PEAK
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FEW TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH
AT THIS TIME GIVEN MARGINAL GALE POTENTIAL. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT REMAIN AT AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
/AS AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  64  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  60  61  41  56  /  10  10  20  10   0
LAREDO            82  56  65  44  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
ALICE             81  59  65  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  63  64  48  58  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           81  50  64  40  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        80  60  66  44  59  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  65  49  59  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 221337 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
737 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG IS LIFT RATHER RAPIDLY...SO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
DITTO FOR THE BAYS...AS NEARBY OBS AND ANY AVAILABLE WEBCAMS SHOW
THAT THE FOG IS LIFTING THERE AS WELL. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AOA
8 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IMPACTING ALL FOUR SOUTH TEXAS
TERMINALS. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN
IS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
HAS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE FOG OVER THE
AREA. NUMEROUS SITES ARE STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG ARE EAST OF A LINE FROM VICTORIA TO BEEVILLE
TO KINGSVILLE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
ELEVATED FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS MORNING.
FOG SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
THE S TO SSW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL REACH
80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...
WITH MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY WENT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN ALL LOCATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODERATE TO STRONG CAA
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN WAKE OF
TUESDAY/S FROPA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A 1020+ MB
HIGH SETTLES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AS PWATS FALL TO LESS THAN .40
INCHES...BUT EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HAVE LOWERED INHERITED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN EXPECTED COLD
AIR DRAINAGE WIND FLOW PATTERN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS/. A
FEW RURAL LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT ATTM THE MAIN NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZE WILL BE IF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THE WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS FOR
MAX TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS...SO I HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND THE
FORECAST NOW REFLECTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND FOR TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
BAYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY PEAK
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FEW TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH
AT THIS TIME GIVEN MARGINAL GALE POTENTIAL. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT REMAIN AT AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
/AS AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  64  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  60  61  41  56  /  10  10  20  10   0
LAREDO            82  56  65  44  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
ALICE             81  59  65  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  63  64  48  58  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           81  50  64  40  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        80  60  66  44  59  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  65  49  59  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221145 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
545 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IMPACTING ALL FOUR SOUTH TEXAS
TERMINALS. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN
IS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
HAS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE FOG OVER THE
AREA. NUMEROUS SITES ARE STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG ARE EAST OF A LINE FROM VICTORIA TO BEEVILLE
TO KINGSVILLE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
ELEVATED FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS MORNING.
FOG SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
THE S TO SSW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL REACH
80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...
WITH MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY WENT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN ALL LOCATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODERATE TO STRONG CAA
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN WAKE OF
TUESDAY/S FROPA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A 1020+ MB
HIGH SETTLES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AS PWATS FALL TO LESS THAN .40
INCHES...BUT EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HAVE LOWERED INHERITED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN EXPECTED COLD
AIR DRAINAGE WIND FLOW PATTERN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS/. A
FEW RURAL LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT ATTM THE MAIN NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZE WILL BE IF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THE WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS FOR
MAX TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS...SO I HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND THE
FORECAST NOW REFLECTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND FOR TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
BAYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY PEAK
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FEW TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH
AT THIS TIME GIVEN MARGINAL GALE POTENTIAL. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT REMAIN AT AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
/AS AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  64  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  60  61  41  56  /  10  10  20  10   0
LAREDO            82  56  65  44  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
ALICE             81  59  65  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  63  64  48  58  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           81  50  64  40  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        80  60  66  44  59  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  65  49  59  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221145 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
545 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IMPACTING ALL FOUR SOUTH TEXAS
TERMINALS. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN
IS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
HAS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE FOG OVER THE
AREA. NUMEROUS SITES ARE STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG ARE EAST OF A LINE FROM VICTORIA TO BEEVILLE
TO KINGSVILLE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
ELEVATED FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS MORNING.
FOG SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
THE S TO SSW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL REACH
80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...
WITH MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY WENT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN ALL LOCATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODERATE TO STRONG CAA
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN WAKE OF
TUESDAY/S FROPA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A 1020+ MB
HIGH SETTLES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AS PWATS FALL TO LESS THAN .40
INCHES...BUT EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HAVE LOWERED INHERITED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN EXPECTED COLD
AIR DRAINAGE WIND FLOW PATTERN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS/. A
FEW RURAL LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT ATTM THE MAIN NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZE WILL BE IF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THE WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS FOR
MAX TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS...SO I HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND THE
FORECAST NOW REFLECTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND FOR TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
BAYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY PEAK
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FEW TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH
AT THIS TIME GIVEN MARGINAL GALE POTENTIAL. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT REMAIN AT AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
/AS AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  64  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  60  61  41  56  /  10  10  20  10   0
LAREDO            82  56  65  44  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
ALICE             81  59  65  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  63  64  48  58  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           81  50  64  40  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        80  60  66  44  59  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  65  49  59  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 221005
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
405 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN
IS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
HAS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE FOG OVER THE
AREA. NUMEROUS SITES ARE STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG ARE EAST OF A LINE FROM VICTORIA TO BEEVILLE
TO KINGSVILLE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
ELEVATED FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS MORNING.
FOG SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
THE S TO SSW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL REACH
80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...
WITH MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY WENT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN ALL LOCATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODERATE TO STRONG CAA
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN WAKE OF
TUESDAY/S FROPA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A 1020+ MB
HIGH SETTLES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AS PWATS FALL TO LESS THAN .40
INCHES...BUT EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HAVE LOWERED INHERITED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN EXPECTED COLD
AIR DRAINAGE WIND FLOW PATTERN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS/. A
FEW RURAL LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT ATTM THE MAIN NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZE WILL BE IF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THE WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS FOR
MAX TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS...SO I HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND THE
FORECAST NOW REFLECTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND FOR TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.


MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
BAYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY PEAK
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FEW TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH
AT THIS TIME GIVEN MARGINAL GALE POTENTIAL. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT REMAIN AT AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
/AS AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  64  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  60  61  41  56  /  10  10  20  10   0
LAREDO            82  56  65  44  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
ALICE             81  59  65  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  63  64  48  58  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           81  50  64  40  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        80  60  66  44  59  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  65  49  59  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 220748 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
148 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
BEND COUNTIES AS SEVERAL SITES ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM
THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO SPREAD FOG TO THE COAST
AS SEVERAL REPORTING SITES VSBYS LESS THAN 3 MILES. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF THE COASTAL BEND. WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...DEPTH OF MOISTURE
LAYER WILL DIMINISH. BUT HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. LIFR/VLIFR CONDS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS BY 08-10Z. LOW STRATUS/IFR
CONDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED LRD AREA WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
BY 09Z. VFR CONDS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 16Z AS DRIER AIR MIXES
DOWN. CONDS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL BEND AROUND 16Z
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER VCT
UNTIL AROUND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  64  45  60  43  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          59  61  40  58  39  /  10  20  10   0   0
LAREDO            54  65  43  62  43  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             59  65  42  61  40  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          63  64  48  59  48  /  10  20  10  10   0
COTULLA           49  64  37  61  39  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        60  66  44  61  40  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       64  65  48  59  48  /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 220748 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
148 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
BEND COUNTIES AS SEVERAL SITES ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM
THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO SPREAD FOG TO THE COAST
AS SEVERAL REPORTING SITES VSBYS LESS THAN 3 MILES. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF THE COASTAL BEND. WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...DEPTH OF MOISTURE
LAYER WILL DIMINISH. BUT HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. LIFR/VLIFR CONDS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS BY 08-10Z. LOW STRATUS/IFR
CONDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED LRD AREA WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
BY 09Z. VFR CONDS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 16Z AS DRIER AIR MIXES
DOWN. CONDS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL BEND AROUND 16Z
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER VCT
UNTIL AROUND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  64  45  60  43  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          59  61  40  58  39  /  10  20  10   0   0
LAREDO            54  65  43  62  43  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             59  65  42  61  40  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          63  64  48  59  48  /  10  20  10  10   0
COTULLA           49  64  37  61  39  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        60  66  44  61  40  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       64  65  48  59  48  /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220748 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
148 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
BEND COUNTIES AS SEVERAL SITES ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM
THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO SPREAD FOG TO THE COAST
AS SEVERAL REPORTING SITES VSBYS LESS THAN 3 MILES. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF THE COASTAL BEND. WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...DEPTH OF MOISTURE
LAYER WILL DIMINISH. BUT HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. LIFR/VLIFR CONDS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS BY 08-10Z. LOW STRATUS/IFR
CONDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED LRD AREA WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
BY 09Z. VFR CONDS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 16Z AS DRIER AIR MIXES
DOWN. CONDS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL BEND AROUND 16Z
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER VCT
UNTIL AROUND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  64  45  60  43  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          59  61  40  58  39  /  10  20  10   0   0
LAREDO            54  65  43  62  43  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             59  65  42  61  40  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          63  64  48  59  48  /  10  20  10  10   0
COTULLA           49  64  37  61  39  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        60  66  44  61  40  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       64  65  48  59  48  /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220748 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
148 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
BEND COUNTIES AS SEVERAL SITES ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM
THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO SPREAD FOG TO THE COAST
AS SEVERAL REPORTING SITES VSBYS LESS THAN 3 MILES. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF THE COASTAL BEND. WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...DEPTH OF MOISTURE
LAYER WILL DIMINISH. BUT HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. LIFR/VLIFR CONDS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS BY 08-10Z. LOW STRATUS/IFR
CONDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED LRD AREA WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
BY 09Z. VFR CONDS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 16Z AS DRIER AIR MIXES
DOWN. CONDS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL BEND AROUND 16Z
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER VCT
UNTIL AROUND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  64  45  60  43  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          59  61  40  58  39  /  10  20  10   0   0
LAREDO            54  65  43  62  43  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             59  65  42  61  40  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          63  64  48  59  48  /  10  20  10  10   0
COTULLA           49  64  37  61  39  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        60  66  44  61  40  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       64  65  48  59  48  /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 220621 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1221 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO SPREAD FOG TO THE COAST
AS SEVERAL REPORTING SITES VSBYS LESS THAN 3 MILES. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF THE COASTAL BEND. WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...DEPTH OF MOISTURE
LAYER WILL DIMINISH. BUT HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. LIFR/VLIFR CONDS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS BY 08-10Z. LOW STRATUS/IFR
CONDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED LRD AREA WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
BY 09Z. VFR CONDS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 16Z AS DRIER AIR MIXES
DOWN. CONDS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL BEND AROUND 16Z
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER VCT
UNTIL AROUND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  64  45  60  /  10  10  20   0  10
VICTORIA          76  59  61  40  58  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            81  54  65  43  62  /   0  10  10   0   0
ALICE             81  59  65  42  61  /  10  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          75  63  64  48  59  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           80  49  64  37  61  /   0  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        80  60  66  44  61  /  10  10  10   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  65  48  59  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 220445 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1045 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF THE COASTAL BEND. WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...DEPTH OF MOISTURE
LAYER WILL DIMINISH. BUT HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. LIFR/VLIFR CONDS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS BY 08-10Z. LOW STRATUS/IFR
CONDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED LRD AREA WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
BY 09Z. VFR CONDS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 16Z AS DRIER AIR MIXES
DOWN. CONDS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL BEND AROUND 16Z
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER VCT
UNTIL AROUND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  79  63  64  45  /  10  10  10  20   0
VICTORIA          52  76  59  61  40  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            53  81  54  65  43  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             53  81  59  65  42  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          54  75  63  64  48  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           49  80  49  64  37  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        54  80  60  66  44  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       58  74  64  65  48  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220445 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1045 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF THE COASTAL BEND. WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...DEPTH OF MOISTURE
LAYER WILL DIMINISH. BUT HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. LIFR/VLIFR CONDS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS BY 08-10Z. LOW STRATUS/IFR
CONDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED LRD AREA WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
BY 09Z. VFR CONDS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 16Z AS DRIER AIR MIXES
DOWN. CONDS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL BEND AROUND 16Z
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER VCT
UNTIL AROUND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  79  63  64  45  /  10  10  10  20   0
VICTORIA          52  76  59  61  40  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            53  81  54  65  43  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             53  81  59  65  42  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          54  75  63  64  48  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           49  80  49  64  37  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        54  80  60  66  44  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       58  74  64  65  48  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 212341 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
541 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEARING LINE WAS ROUGHLY NEAR JUST WEST OF A HBV-COT
LINE AT 23Z WITH A FEW BREAKS OCCURRING IN THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE
COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. BUT GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS
WERE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BETWEEN 03Z
AND 05Z WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG DEVELOPING BEFORE 06Z. WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE LAYER
WILL DIMINISH. BUT HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 08-10Z. LOW STRATUS/IFR
CONDS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 07Z WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE BY
10Z. VFR CONDS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 15Z AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN.
CONDS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL BEND BETWEEN 15-16Z
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER VCT
UNTIL AROUND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUE IS FOG
TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING (IF FRONT GOES
THROUGH ENOUGH AREAS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES AROUND 8 AM).
BEYOND THAT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN RAINFALL WHATSOEVER...SINCE
(EXCEPT FOR NEAR SURFACE) LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE THREE PERIODS...AND UPPER SUPPORT GENERALLY STAYS NORTH.
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG MANY AREAS TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE. PROBLEM WITH ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME IS THE
FACT THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MODERATE...
ALONG WITH TIMING/AREA ISSUES (WHO TO INCLUDE AND WHO TO LEAVE OUT)
SO NO ADVISORY ISSUED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES CAN BE A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT...SINCE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...BUT FOG AND DEW FORMATION WILL HELP TO LOWER
TEMPS. SHOULD BE A WARM DAY ON MONDAY ONCE THE FOG DISPERSES...WITH
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE AND DRYING
AIR. FRONT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF AREA BEFORE 12Z TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
START TO COME DOWN AFTER 12Z AND MAY GO THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...AM GOING TO GO COOL
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BUT WARM CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOG LIKELY
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
TONIGHT BUT THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OF IT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. NO
OTHER PRECIPITATING ISSUES...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN/KEEP THE PATCHY SEA FOG
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS STILL COULD HAVE SOME DEVELOP BEFORE FROPA
ON TUESDAY (AND MAINLY NORTHEASTERN WATERS).

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A
POTENT UPPER LOW TO SWING ACROSS TX AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
S TX. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z AND
QUICKLY PUSH OFF THE COAST BY NOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A
QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE AHD OF THE FRONT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT
SRHA`S ACROSS THE E CWA AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS PROG
WEAK CAPE AND LIFT ALONG WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. CONTEMPLATED PUTTING TSRA`S IN THE FCST FOR
TUE...HOWEVER AM SKEPTICAL ON THE AMOUNT OF RETURN MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL KEEP SHRA`S IN THE FCST BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSRA OR TWO. STRONG NW WINDS ARE PROGD TO DVLP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND USHER IN COOLER AIR. TUE`S MX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING. KEPT THE TREND OF FALLING TEMPS THRU TUE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY THE NE CWA. MODELS VARY ON JUST HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL BE ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. KEPT WITH SUSTAINED
25-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS.
MAY NEED A GALE WATCH FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR NIGHT IF GUSTS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BE FREQUENTLY GALE FORCE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE TIMING IS STILL LATE 3RD INTO 4TH PERIOD. WINDS ACROSS THE LAND
WILL LIKELY BE WINDY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL FILTER INTO S TX TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. SUNNY SKIES CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE FRI AHD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS PROGD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LACKING
MOISTURE...THUS AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THE FRI NIGHT
FRONT...EXCEPT ISOLD SHRA`S OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  79  63  64  45  /  10  10  10  20   0
VICTORIA          52  76  59  61  40  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            53  81  54  65  43  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             53  81  59  65  42  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          54  75  63  64  48  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           49  80  49  64  37  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        54  80  60  66  44  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       58  74  64  65  48  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 212341 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
541 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEARING LINE WAS ROUGHLY NEAR JUST WEST OF A HBV-COT
LINE AT 23Z WITH A FEW BREAKS OCCURRING IN THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE
COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. BUT GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS
WERE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BETWEEN 03Z
AND 05Z WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG DEVELOPING BEFORE 06Z. WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE LAYER
WILL DIMINISH. BUT HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 08-10Z. LOW STRATUS/IFR
CONDS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 07Z WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE BY
10Z. VFR CONDS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 15Z AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN.
CONDS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL BEND BETWEEN 15-16Z
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER VCT
UNTIL AROUND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUE IS FOG
TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING (IF FRONT GOES
THROUGH ENOUGH AREAS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES AROUND 8 AM).
BEYOND THAT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN RAINFALL WHATSOEVER...SINCE
(EXCEPT FOR NEAR SURFACE) LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE THREE PERIODS...AND UPPER SUPPORT GENERALLY STAYS NORTH.
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG MANY AREAS TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE. PROBLEM WITH ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME IS THE
FACT THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MODERATE...
ALONG WITH TIMING/AREA ISSUES (WHO TO INCLUDE AND WHO TO LEAVE OUT)
SO NO ADVISORY ISSUED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES CAN BE A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT...SINCE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...BUT FOG AND DEW FORMATION WILL HELP TO LOWER
TEMPS. SHOULD BE A WARM DAY ON MONDAY ONCE THE FOG DISPERSES...WITH
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE AND DRYING
AIR. FRONT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF AREA BEFORE 12Z TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
START TO COME DOWN AFTER 12Z AND MAY GO THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...AM GOING TO GO COOL
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BUT WARM CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOG LIKELY
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
TONIGHT BUT THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OF IT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. NO
OTHER PRECIPITATING ISSUES...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN/KEEP THE PATCHY SEA FOG
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS STILL COULD HAVE SOME DEVELOP BEFORE FROPA
ON TUESDAY (AND MAINLY NORTHEASTERN WATERS).

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A
POTENT UPPER LOW TO SWING ACROSS TX AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
S TX. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z AND
QUICKLY PUSH OFF THE COAST BY NOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A
QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE AHD OF THE FRONT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT
SRHA`S ACROSS THE E CWA AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS PROG
WEAK CAPE AND LIFT ALONG WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. CONTEMPLATED PUTTING TSRA`S IN THE FCST FOR
TUE...HOWEVER AM SKEPTICAL ON THE AMOUNT OF RETURN MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL KEEP SHRA`S IN THE FCST BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSRA OR TWO. STRONG NW WINDS ARE PROGD TO DVLP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND USHER IN COOLER AIR. TUE`S MX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING. KEPT THE TREND OF FALLING TEMPS THRU TUE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY THE NE CWA. MODELS VARY ON JUST HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL BE ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. KEPT WITH SUSTAINED
25-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS.
MAY NEED A GALE WATCH FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR NIGHT IF GUSTS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BE FREQUENTLY GALE FORCE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE TIMING IS STILL LATE 3RD INTO 4TH PERIOD. WINDS ACROSS THE LAND
WILL LIKELY BE WINDY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL FILTER INTO S TX TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. SUNNY SKIES CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE FRI AHD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS PROGD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LACKING
MOISTURE...THUS AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THE FRI NIGHT
FRONT...EXCEPT ISOLD SHRA`S OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  79  63  64  45  /  10  10  10  20   0
VICTORIA          52  76  59  61  40  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            53  81  54  65  43  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             53  81  59  65  42  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          54  75  63  64  48  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           49  80  49  64  37  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        54  80  60  66  44  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       58  74  64  65  48  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 212042
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
242 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUE IS FOG
TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING (IF FRONT GOES
THROUGH ENOUGH AREAS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES AROUND 8 AM).
BEYOND THAT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN RAINFALL WHATSOEVER...SINCE
(EXCEPT FOR NEAR SURFACE) LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE THREE PERIODS...AND UPPER SUPPORT GENERALLY STAYS NORTH.
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG MANY AREAS TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE. PROBLEM WITH ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME IS THE
FACT THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MODERATE...
ALONG WITH TIMING/AREA ISSUES (WHO TO INCLUDE AND WHO TO LEAVE OUT)
SO NO ADVISORY ISSUED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES CAN BE A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT...SINCE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...BUT FOG AND DEW FORMATION WILL HELP TO LOWER
TEMPS. SHOULD BE A WARM DAY ON MONDAY ONCE THE FOG DISPERSES...WITH
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE AND DRYING
AIR. FRONT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF AREA BEFORE 12Z TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
START TO COME DOWN AFTER 12Z AND MAY GO THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...AM GOING TO GO COOL
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BUT WARM CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOG LIKELY
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
TONIGHT BUT THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OF IT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. NO
OTHER PRECIPITATING ISSUES...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN/KEEP THE PATCHY SEA FOG
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS STILL COULD HAVE SOME DEVELOP BEFORE FROPA
ON TUESDAY (AND MAINLY NORTHEASTERN WATERS).

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A
POTENT UPPER LOW TO SWING ACROSS TX AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
S TX. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z AND
QUICKLY PUSH OFF THE COAST BY NOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A
QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE AHD OF THE FRONT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT
SRHA`S ACROSS THE E CWA AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS PROG
WEAK CAPE AND LIFT ALONG WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. CONTEMPLATED PUTTING TSRA`S IN THE FCST FOR
TUE...HOWEVER AM SKEPTICAL ON THE AMOUNT OF RETURN MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL KEEP SHRA`S IN THE FCST BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSRA OR TWO. STRONG NW WINDS ARE PROGD TO DVLP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND USHER IN COOLER AIR. TUE`S MX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING. KEPT THE TREND OF FALLING TEMPS THRU TUE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY THE NE CWA. MODELS VARY ON JUST HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL BE ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. KEPT WITH SUSTAINED
25-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS.
MAY NEED A GALE WATCH FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR NIGHT IF GUSTS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BE FREQUENTLY GALE FORCE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE TIMING IS STILL LATE 3RD INTO 4TH PERIOD. WINDS ACROSS THE LAND
WILL LIKELY BE WINDY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL FILTER INTO S TX TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. SUNNY SKIES CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE FRI AHD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS PROGD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LACKING
MOISTURE...THUS AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THE FRI NIGHT
FRONT...EXCEPT ISOLD SHRA`S OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  79  63  64  45  /  10  10  10  20   0
VICTORIA          52  76  59  61  40  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            53  81  54  65  43  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             53  81  59  65  42  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          54  75  63  64  48  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           49  80  49  64  37  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        54  80  60  66  44  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       58  74  64  65  48  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 212042
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
242 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUE IS FOG
TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING (IF FRONT GOES
THROUGH ENOUGH AREAS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES AROUND 8 AM).
BEYOND THAT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN RAINFALL WHATSOEVER...SINCE
(EXCEPT FOR NEAR SURFACE) LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE THREE PERIODS...AND UPPER SUPPORT GENERALLY STAYS NORTH.
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG MANY AREAS TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE. PROBLEM WITH ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME IS THE
FACT THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MODERATE...
ALONG WITH TIMING/AREA ISSUES (WHO TO INCLUDE AND WHO TO LEAVE OUT)
SO NO ADVISORY ISSUED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES CAN BE A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT...SINCE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...BUT FOG AND DEW FORMATION WILL HELP TO LOWER
TEMPS. SHOULD BE A WARM DAY ON MONDAY ONCE THE FOG DISPERSES...WITH
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE AND DRYING
AIR. FRONT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF AREA BEFORE 12Z TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
START TO COME DOWN AFTER 12Z AND MAY GO THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...AM GOING TO GO COOL
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BUT WARM CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOG LIKELY
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
TONIGHT BUT THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OF IT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. NO
OTHER PRECIPITATING ISSUES...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN/KEEP THE PATCHY SEA FOG
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS STILL COULD HAVE SOME DEVELOP BEFORE FROPA
ON TUESDAY (AND MAINLY NORTHEASTERN WATERS).

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A
POTENT UPPER LOW TO SWING ACROSS TX AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
S TX. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z AND
QUICKLY PUSH OFF THE COAST BY NOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A
QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE AHD OF THE FRONT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT
SRHA`S ACROSS THE E CWA AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS PROG
WEAK CAPE AND LIFT ALONG WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. CONTEMPLATED PUTTING TSRA`S IN THE FCST FOR
TUE...HOWEVER AM SKEPTICAL ON THE AMOUNT OF RETURN MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL KEEP SHRA`S IN THE FCST BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSRA OR TWO. STRONG NW WINDS ARE PROGD TO DVLP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND USHER IN COOLER AIR. TUE`S MX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING. KEPT THE TREND OF FALLING TEMPS THRU TUE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY THE NE CWA. MODELS VARY ON JUST HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL BE ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. KEPT WITH SUSTAINED
25-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS.
MAY NEED A GALE WATCH FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR NIGHT IF GUSTS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BE FREQUENTLY GALE FORCE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE TIMING IS STILL LATE 3RD INTO 4TH PERIOD. WINDS ACROSS THE LAND
WILL LIKELY BE WINDY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL FILTER INTO S TX TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. SUNNY SKIES CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE FRI AHD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS PROGD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LACKING
MOISTURE...THUS AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THE FRI NIGHT
FRONT...EXCEPT ISOLD SHRA`S OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  79  63  64  45  /  10  10  10  20   0
VICTORIA          52  76  59  61  40  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            53  81  54  65  43  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             53  81  59  65  42  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          54  75  63  64  48  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           49  80  49  64  37  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        54  80  60  66  44  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       58  74  64  65  48  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 211738 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1138 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS MAY IMPROVE FOR A SHORT TIME TO VFR (ESPECIALLY
AT KLRD)...BUT GENERALLY SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. COULD EVEN INITIALLY HAVE IFR AT KCRP AND KALI
WITH ISENTROPIC PATTERN NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WORSEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST FOG LIKELY TO FORM
OVERNIGHT ALL TERMINALS...AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ASSISTED BY
VERY MOIST NEAR THE SURFACE AND DRY A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT
AIDED BY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY 16Z...WITH VFR (OR NEAR VFR) CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST WITH SSW/SW WINDS IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH
TEXAS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CATEGORIES RANGE FROM VFR AT ALI...
TO IFR AT CRP/LRD...TO MVFR AT VCT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STILL IMPACT
ALI AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MVFR GROUP. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END VFR BY MIDDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG
WILL RETURN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL VEER FROM NE TO E TODAY....TO
SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON AVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...HOWEVER SOME GRADUAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK TODAY...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID
60S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ENDING. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS S AND SSW FLOW SETS UP BEFORE TUESDAY/S COLD
FRONT. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S LIKELY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WAA EXPECTED TO BE
OCCURRING AT START OF MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. IF SFC/LLVL WINDS CAN REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF DUE
SOUTH THEN A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROG TO DEVELOP MON NIGHT ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT WAA AND FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC LOW SHIFTS SE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT PROG TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND SUNRISE
AND PUSH OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY. MAX TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY IN THE 50S TUES MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON. A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS IS PROG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THIS FRONT. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS /STRONGEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST/ SHOULD OCCUR AFTER FROPA TUE AS CAA DEVELOPS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS AN ECMWF/NAM BLEND FOR POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS AS
GFS DEEPENING OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE ALONG WITH DIGGING OF A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. MAIN
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA TUES NIGHT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS OCCURRING THROUGH MID WEEK. MAX TEMPS ON
WED MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AIDS IN CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE AS COLD AS MEX GUIDANCE JUST YET AS ECMWF INDICATES A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S BY
SUNRISE CHRISTMAS MORNING. CHRISTMAS DAY IS PROG TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES C FROM
THE DAY BEFORE...AND WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS /PWATS NEARLY 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL/ MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 70S. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  55  75  63  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          63  53  75  61  61  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            67  55  80  55  65  /  10  10   0  10  10
ALICE             64  53  78  60  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          63  57  70  62  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           66  51  79  52  64  /  10  10   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        65  54  78  61  66  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       64  58  72  63  65  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211139
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
539 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH
TEXAS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CATEGORIES RANGE FROM VFR AT ALI...
TO IFR AT CRP/LRD...TO MVFR AT VCT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STILL IMPACT
ALI AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MVFR GROUP. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END VFR BY MIDDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG
WILL RETURN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL VEER FROM NE TO E TODAY....TO
SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON AVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...HOWEVER SOME GRADUAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK TODAY...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID
60S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ENDING. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS S AND SSW FLOW SETS UP BEFORE TUESDAY/S COLD
FRONT. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S LIKELY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WAA EXPECTED TO BE
OCCURRING AT START OF MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. IF SFC/LLVL WINDS CAN REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF DUE
SOUTH THEN A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROG TO DEVELOP MON NIGHT ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT WAA AND FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC LOW SHIFTS SE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT PROG TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND SUNRISE
AND PUSH OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY. MAX TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY IN THE 50S TUES MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON. A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS IS PROG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THIS FRONT. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS /STRONGEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST/ SHOULD OCCUR AFTER FROPA TUE AS CAA DEVELOPS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS AN ECMWF/NAM BLEND FOR POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS AS
GFS DEEPENING OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE ALONG WITH DIGGING OF A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. MAIN
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA TUES NIGHT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS OCCURRING THROUGH MID WEEK. MAX TEMPS ON
WED MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AIDS IN CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE AS COLD AS MEX GUIDANCE JUST YET AS ECMWF INDICATES A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S BY
SUNRISE CHRISTMAS MORNING. CHRISTMAS DAY IS PROG TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES C FROM
THE DAY BEFORE...AND WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS /PWATS NEARLY 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL/ MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 70S. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  55  75  63  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          63  53  75  61  61  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            67  55  80  55  65  /  10  10   0  10  10
ALICE             64  53  78  60  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          63  57  70  62  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           66  51  79  52  64  /  10  10   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        65  54  78  61  66  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       64  58  72  63  65  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 211139
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
539 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH
TEXAS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CATEGORIES RANGE FROM VFR AT ALI...
TO IFR AT CRP/LRD...TO MVFR AT VCT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STILL IMPACT
ALI AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MVFR GROUP. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END VFR BY MIDDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG
WILL RETURN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL VEER FROM NE TO E TODAY....TO
SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON AVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...HOWEVER SOME GRADUAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK TODAY...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID
60S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ENDING. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS S AND SSW FLOW SETS UP BEFORE TUESDAY/S COLD
FRONT. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S LIKELY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WAA EXPECTED TO BE
OCCURRING AT START OF MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. IF SFC/LLVL WINDS CAN REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF DUE
SOUTH THEN A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROG TO DEVELOP MON NIGHT ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT WAA AND FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC LOW SHIFTS SE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT PROG TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND SUNRISE
AND PUSH OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY. MAX TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY IN THE 50S TUES MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON. A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS IS PROG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THIS FRONT. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS /STRONGEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST/ SHOULD OCCUR AFTER FROPA TUE AS CAA DEVELOPS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS AN ECMWF/NAM BLEND FOR POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS AS
GFS DEEPENING OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE ALONG WITH DIGGING OF A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. MAIN
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA TUES NIGHT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS OCCURRING THROUGH MID WEEK. MAX TEMPS ON
WED MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AIDS IN CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE AS COLD AS MEX GUIDANCE JUST YET AS ECMWF INDICATES A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S BY
SUNRISE CHRISTMAS MORNING. CHRISTMAS DAY IS PROG TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES C FROM
THE DAY BEFORE...AND WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS /PWATS NEARLY 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL/ MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 70S. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  55  75  63  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          63  53  75  61  61  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            67  55  80  55  65  /  10  10   0  10  10
ALICE             64  53  78  60  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          63  57  70  62  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           66  51  79  52  64  /  10  10   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        65  54  78  61  66  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       64  58  72  63  65  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211004
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
404 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...HOWEVER SOME GRADUAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK TODAY...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID
60S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ENDING. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS S AND SSW FLOW SETS UP BEFORE TUESDAY/S COLD
FRONT. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WAA EXPECTED TO BE
OCCURRING AT START OF MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. IF SFC/LLVL WINDS CAN REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF DUE
SOUTH THEN A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROG TO DEVELOP MON NIGHT ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT WAA AND FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC LOW SHIFTS SE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT PROG TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND SUNRISE
AND PUSH OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY. MAX TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY IN THE 50S TUES MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON. A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS IS PROG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THIS FRONT. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS /STRONGEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST/ SHOULD OCCUR AFTER FROPA TUE AS CAA DEVELOPS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS AN ECMWF/NAM BLEND FOR POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS AS
GFS DEEPENING OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE ALONG WITH DIGGING OF A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. MAIN
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA TUES NIGHT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS OCCURRING THROUGH MID WEEK. MAX TEMPS ON
WED MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AIDS IN CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE AS COLD AS MEX GUIDANCE JUST YET AS ECMWF INDICATES A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S BY
SUNRISE CHRISTMAS MORNING. CHRISTMAS DAY IS PROG TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES C FROM
THE DAY BEFORE...AND WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS /PWATS NEARLY 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL/ MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 70S. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  55  75  63  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          63  53  75  61  61  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            67  55  80  55  65  /  10  10   0  10  10
ALICE             64  53  78  60  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          63  57  70  62  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           66  51  79  52  64  /  10  10   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        65  54  78  61  66  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       64  58  72  63  65  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 211004
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
404 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...HOWEVER SOME GRADUAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK TODAY...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID
60S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ENDING. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS S AND SSW FLOW SETS UP BEFORE TUESDAY/S COLD
FRONT. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WAA EXPECTED TO BE
OCCURRING AT START OF MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. IF SFC/LLVL WINDS CAN REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF DUE
SOUTH THEN A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROG TO DEVELOP MON NIGHT ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT WAA AND FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC LOW SHIFTS SE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT PROG TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND SUNRISE
AND PUSH OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY. MAX TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY IN THE 50S TUES MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON. A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS IS PROG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THIS FRONT. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS /STRONGEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST/ SHOULD OCCUR AFTER FROPA TUE AS CAA DEVELOPS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS AN ECMWF/NAM BLEND FOR POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS AS
GFS DEEPENING OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE ALONG WITH DIGGING OF A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. MAIN
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA TUES NIGHT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS OCCURRING THROUGH MID WEEK. MAX TEMPS ON
WED MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AIDS IN CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE AS COLD AS MEX GUIDANCE JUST YET AS ECMWF INDICATES A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S BY
SUNRISE CHRISTMAS MORNING. CHRISTMAS DAY IS PROG TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES C FROM
THE DAY BEFORE...AND WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS /PWATS NEARLY 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL/ MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 70S. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  55  75  63  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          63  53  75  61  61  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            67  55  80  55  65  /  10  10   0  10  10
ALICE             64  53  78  60  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          63  57  70  62  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           66  51  79  52  64  /  10  10   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        65  54  78  61  66  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       64  58  72  63  65  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211004
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
404 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...HOWEVER SOME GRADUAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK TODAY...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID
60S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ENDING. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS S AND SSW FLOW SETS UP BEFORE TUESDAY/S COLD
FRONT. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WAA EXPECTED TO BE
OCCURRING AT START OF MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. IF SFC/LLVL WINDS CAN REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF DUE
SOUTH THEN A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROG TO DEVELOP MON NIGHT ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT WAA AND FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC LOW SHIFTS SE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT PROG TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND SUNRISE
AND PUSH OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY. MAX TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY IN THE 50S TUES MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON. A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS IS PROG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THIS FRONT. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS /STRONGEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST/ SHOULD OCCUR AFTER FROPA TUE AS CAA DEVELOPS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS AN ECMWF/NAM BLEND FOR POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS AS
GFS DEEPENING OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE ALONG WITH DIGGING OF A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. MAIN
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA TUES NIGHT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS OCCURRING THROUGH MID WEEK. MAX TEMPS ON
WED MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AIDS IN CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE AS COLD AS MEX GUIDANCE JUST YET AS ECMWF INDICATES A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S BY
SUNRISE CHRISTMAS MORNING. CHRISTMAS DAY IS PROG TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES C FROM
THE DAY BEFORE...AND WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS /PWATS NEARLY 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL/ MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 70S. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  55  75  63  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          63  53  75  61  61  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            67  55  80  55  65  /  10  10   0  10  10
ALICE             64  53  78  60  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          63  57  70  62  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           66  51  79  52  64  /  10  10   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        65  54  78  61  66  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       64  58  72  63  65  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 211004
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
404 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...HOWEVER SOME GRADUAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK TODAY...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID
60S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ENDING. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS S AND SSW FLOW SETS UP BEFORE TUESDAY/S COLD
FRONT. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WAA EXPECTED TO BE
OCCURRING AT START OF MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. IF SFC/LLVL WINDS CAN REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF DUE
SOUTH THEN A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROG TO DEVELOP MON NIGHT ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT WAA AND FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC LOW SHIFTS SE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT PROG TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND SUNRISE
AND PUSH OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY. MAX TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY IN THE 50S TUES MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON. A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS IS PROG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THIS FRONT. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS /STRONGEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST/ SHOULD OCCUR AFTER FROPA TUE AS CAA DEVELOPS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS AN ECMWF/NAM BLEND FOR POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS AS
GFS DEEPENING OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE ALONG WITH DIGGING OF A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. MAIN
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA TUES NIGHT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS OCCURRING THROUGH MID WEEK. MAX TEMPS ON
WED MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AIDS IN CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE AS COLD AS MEX GUIDANCE JUST YET AS ECMWF INDICATES A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S BY
SUNRISE CHRISTMAS MORNING. CHRISTMAS DAY IS PROG TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES C FROM
THE DAY BEFORE...AND WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS /PWATS NEARLY 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL/ MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 70S. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  55  75  63  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          63  53  75  61  61  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            67  55  80  55  65  /  10  10   0  10  10
ALICE             64  53  78  60  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          63  57  70  62  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           66  51  79  52  64  /  10  10   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        65  54  78  61  66  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       64  58  72  63  65  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210444
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1044 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
STRATUS DECK PERSISTING. SEEING SOME FOG DEVELOP AT VCT TAF SITE
WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS NOT PRESENT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG FOR OTHER SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR VISBY. STRATUS SHOULD HOLD FOR MOST SITES DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WIND. LRD COULD BREAK THE CIG IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER SITES LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...OVERCAST CLOUD DECK COVERING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO VERY LIMITED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. MADE CHANGES
TO OVERCAST SKY CONDITION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT AND MODIFIED TEMPERATURE TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL APPEARS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...NO CHANGES THERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
NELY FLOW. JUST ABV THE SFC...WINDS ARE PROGD TO BECOME MORE S TO SW
WHICH WILL DRAW MOISTURE OVR THE SHALLOW COLD DOME AND BRING PATCHY
-DZ/BR TO THE COASTAL BEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO
TRACK ACROSS S TX THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PATCHY
FOG/DZ SPREADING N AND W ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF -RA ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS
TO THE E THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED
TO END FROM W TO E. STRATUS/DZ WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE...BUT A TAD WARMER
ACROSS THE W WITH UPPER 60S AS SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THRU
THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING ABOVE THE SFC IS PROGD FOR SUN
NIGHT LEADING TO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR SUN NIGHT BUT IF WINDS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD/THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ENSUING DURING THE WEEK...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS
OFFSHORE (HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH YET AS STILL A BIT EARLY AND
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS). BRIEF WARM
UP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. GOING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT (THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT). SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY BEHIND FRONT ON TUESDAY
COULD BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST LATE TUESDAY. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...AND MAIN IMPACTS FOR SOUTH TEXAS ARE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES (AS WELL AS HUMIDITY). HOWEVER...
ONCE AGAIN... APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS...AND MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN ENOUGH IN TIME FOR THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS/IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE A BIT BETTER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND STILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY (MAYBE SOME WEAK
CONVECTION/RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS). COOLER AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  63  53  75  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          49  62  51  73  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            51  67  54  80  54  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             51  64  51  78  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  52  72  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           49  66  50  79  49  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        52  63  51  78  59  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  64  57  72  62  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210444
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1044 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
STRATUS DECK PERSISTING. SEEING SOME FOG DEVELOP AT VCT TAF SITE
WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS NOT PRESENT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG FOR OTHER SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR VISBY. STRATUS SHOULD HOLD FOR MOST SITES DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WIND. LRD COULD BREAK THE CIG IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER SITES LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...OVERCAST CLOUD DECK COVERING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO VERY LIMITED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. MADE CHANGES
TO OVERCAST SKY CONDITION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT AND MODIFIED TEMPERATURE TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL APPEARS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...NO CHANGES THERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
NELY FLOW. JUST ABV THE SFC...WINDS ARE PROGD TO BECOME MORE S TO SW
WHICH WILL DRAW MOISTURE OVR THE SHALLOW COLD DOME AND BRING PATCHY
-DZ/BR TO THE COASTAL BEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO
TRACK ACROSS S TX THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PATCHY
FOG/DZ SPREADING N AND W ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF -RA ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS
TO THE E THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED
TO END FROM W TO E. STRATUS/DZ WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE...BUT A TAD WARMER
ACROSS THE W WITH UPPER 60S AS SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THRU
THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING ABOVE THE SFC IS PROGD FOR SUN
NIGHT LEADING TO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR SUN NIGHT BUT IF WINDS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD/THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ENSUING DURING THE WEEK...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS
OFFSHORE (HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH YET AS STILL A BIT EARLY AND
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS). BRIEF WARM
UP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. GOING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT (THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT). SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY BEHIND FRONT ON TUESDAY
COULD BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST LATE TUESDAY. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...AND MAIN IMPACTS FOR SOUTH TEXAS ARE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES (AS WELL AS HUMIDITY). HOWEVER...
ONCE AGAIN... APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS...AND MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN ENOUGH IN TIME FOR THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS/IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE A BIT BETTER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND STILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY (MAYBE SOME WEAK
CONVECTION/RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS). COOLER AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  63  53  75  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          49  62  51  73  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            51  67  54  80  54  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             51  64  51  78  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  52  72  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           49  66  50  79  49  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        52  63  51  78  59  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  64  57  72  62  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 210444
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1044 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
STRATUS DECK PERSISTING. SEEING SOME FOG DEVELOP AT VCT TAF SITE
WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS NOT PRESENT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG FOR OTHER SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR VISBY. STRATUS SHOULD HOLD FOR MOST SITES DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WIND. LRD COULD BREAK THE CIG IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER SITES LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...OVERCAST CLOUD DECK COVERING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO VERY LIMITED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. MADE CHANGES
TO OVERCAST SKY CONDITION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT AND MODIFIED TEMPERATURE TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL APPEARS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...NO CHANGES THERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
NELY FLOW. JUST ABV THE SFC...WINDS ARE PROGD TO BECOME MORE S TO SW
WHICH WILL DRAW MOISTURE OVR THE SHALLOW COLD DOME AND BRING PATCHY
-DZ/BR TO THE COASTAL BEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO
TRACK ACROSS S TX THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PATCHY
FOG/DZ SPREADING N AND W ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF -RA ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS
TO THE E THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED
TO END FROM W TO E. STRATUS/DZ WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE...BUT A TAD WARMER
ACROSS THE W WITH UPPER 60S AS SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THRU
THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING ABOVE THE SFC IS PROGD FOR SUN
NIGHT LEADING TO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR SUN NIGHT BUT IF WINDS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD/THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ENSUING DURING THE WEEK...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS
OFFSHORE (HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH YET AS STILL A BIT EARLY AND
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS). BRIEF WARM
UP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. GOING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT (THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT). SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY BEHIND FRONT ON TUESDAY
COULD BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST LATE TUESDAY. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...AND MAIN IMPACTS FOR SOUTH TEXAS ARE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES (AS WELL AS HUMIDITY). HOWEVER...
ONCE AGAIN... APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS...AND MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN ENOUGH IN TIME FOR THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS/IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE A BIT BETTER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND STILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY (MAYBE SOME WEAK
CONVECTION/RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS). COOLER AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  63  53  75  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          49  62  51  73  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            51  67  54  80  54  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             51  64  51  78  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  52  72  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           49  66  50  79  49  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        52  63  51  78  59  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  64  57  72  62  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 210225 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
825 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...OVERCAST CLOUD DECK COVERING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO VERY LIMITED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. MADE CHANGES
TO OVERCAST SKY CONDITION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT AND MODIFIED TEMPERATURE TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL APPEARS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...STEADY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE TEMPO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR
ALI/CRP SITES. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD NOT
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH THE THICK STRATUS DECK
IN PLACE. GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING THE STRATUS WELL...AND
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW...DESPITE GUIDANCE
INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...THINK WE WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
NELY FLOW. JUST ABV THE SFC...WINDS ARE PROGD TO BECOME MORE S TO SW
WHICH WILL DRAW MOISTURE OVR THE SHALLOW COLD DOME AND BRING PATCHY
-DZ/BR TO THE COASTAL BEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO
TRACK ACROSS S TX THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PATCHY
FOG/DZ SPREADING N AND W ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF -RA ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS
TO THE E THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED
TO END FROM W TO E. STRATUS/DZ WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE...BUT A TAD WARMER
ACROSS THE W WITH UPPER 60S AS SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THRU
THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING ABOVE THE SFC IS PROGD FOR SUN
NIGHT LEADING TO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR SUN NIGHT BUT IF WINDS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD/THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ENSUING DURING THE WEEK...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS
OFFSHORE (HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH YET AS STILL A BIT EARLY AND
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS). BRIEF WARM
UP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. GOING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT (THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT). SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY BEHIND FRONT ON TUESDAY
COULD BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST LATE TUESDAY. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...AND MAIN IMPACTS FOR SOUTH TEXAS ARE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES (AS WELL AS HUMIDITY). HOWEVER...
ONCE AGAIN... APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS...AND MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN ENOUGH IN TIME FOR THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS/IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE A BIT BETTER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND STILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY (MAYBE SOME WEAK
CONVECTION/RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS). COOLER AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  63  53  75  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          49  62  51  73  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            51  67  54  80  54  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             51  64  51  78  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  63  52  72  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           49  66  50  79  49  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        53  63  51  78  59  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  64  57  72  62  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210225 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
825 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...OVERCAST CLOUD DECK COVERING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO VERY LIMITED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. MADE CHANGES
TO OVERCAST SKY CONDITION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT AND MODIFIED TEMPERATURE TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL APPEARS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...STEADY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE TEMPO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR
ALI/CRP SITES. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD NOT
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH THE THICK STRATUS DECK
IN PLACE. GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING THE STRATUS WELL...AND
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW...DESPITE GUIDANCE
INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...THINK WE WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
NELY FLOW. JUST ABV THE SFC...WINDS ARE PROGD TO BECOME MORE S TO SW
WHICH WILL DRAW MOISTURE OVR THE SHALLOW COLD DOME AND BRING PATCHY
-DZ/BR TO THE COASTAL BEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO
TRACK ACROSS S TX THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PATCHY
FOG/DZ SPREADING N AND W ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF -RA ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS
TO THE E THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED
TO END FROM W TO E. STRATUS/DZ WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE...BUT A TAD WARMER
ACROSS THE W WITH UPPER 60S AS SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THRU
THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING ABOVE THE SFC IS PROGD FOR SUN
NIGHT LEADING TO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR SUN NIGHT BUT IF WINDS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD/THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ENSUING DURING THE WEEK...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS
OFFSHORE (HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH YET AS STILL A BIT EARLY AND
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS). BRIEF WARM
UP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. GOING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT (THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT). SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY BEHIND FRONT ON TUESDAY
COULD BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST LATE TUESDAY. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...AND MAIN IMPACTS FOR SOUTH TEXAS ARE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES (AS WELL AS HUMIDITY). HOWEVER...
ONCE AGAIN... APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS...AND MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN ENOUGH IN TIME FOR THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS/IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE A BIT BETTER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND STILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY (MAYBE SOME WEAK
CONVECTION/RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS). COOLER AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  63  53  75  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          49  62  51  73  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            51  67  54  80  54  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             51  64  51  78  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  63  52  72  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           49  66  50  79  49  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        53  63  51  78  59  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  64  57  72  62  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 202328
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
528 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...STEADY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE TEMPO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR
ALI/CRP SITES. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD NOT
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH THE THICK STRATUS DECK
IN PLACE. GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING THE STRATUS WELL...AND
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW...DESPITE GUIDANCE
INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...THINK WE WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
NELY FLOW. JUST ABV THE SFC...WINDS ARE PROGD TO BECOME MORE S TO SW
WHICH WILL DRAW MOISTURE OVR THE SHALLOW COLD DOME AND BRING PATCHY
-DZ/BR TO THE COASTAL BEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO
TRACK ACROSS S TX THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PATCHY
FOG/DZ SPREADING N AND W ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF -RA ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS
TO THE E THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED
TO END FROM W TO E. STRATUS/DZ WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE...BUT A TAD WARMER
ACROSS THE W WITH UPPER 60S AS SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THRU
THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING ABOVE THE SFC IS PROGD FOR SUN
NIGHT LEADING TO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR SUN NIGHT BUT IF WINDS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD/THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ENSUING DURING THE WEEK...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS
OFFSHORE (HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH YET AS STILL A BIT EARLY AND
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS). BRIEF WARM
UP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. GOING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT (THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT). SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY BEHIND FRONT ON TUESDAY
COULD BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST LATE TUESDAY. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...AND MAIN IMPACTS FOR SOUTH TEXAS ARE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES (AS WELL AS HUMIDITY). HOWEVER...
ONCE AGAIN... APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS...AND MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN ENOUGH IN TIME FOR THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS/IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE A BIT BETTER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND STILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY (MAYBE SOME WEAK
CONVECTION/RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS). COOLER AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    52  63  53  75  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          47  62  51  73  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            50  67  54  80  54  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             51  64  51  78  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  63  52  72  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           48  66  50  79  49  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        53  63  51  78  59  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  64  57  72  62  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 202055
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
NELY FLOW. JUST ABV THE SFC...WINDS ARE PROGD TO BECOME MORE S TO SW
WHICH WILL DRAW MOISTURE OVR THE SHALLOW COLD DOME AND BRING PATCHY
-DZ/BR TO THE COASTAL BEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO
TRACK ACROSS S TX THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PATCHY
FOG/DZ SPREADING N AND W ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF -RA ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS
TO THE E THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED
TO END FROM W TO E. STRATUS/DZ WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE...BUT A TAD WARMER
ACROSS THE W WITH UPPER 60S AS SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THRU
THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING ABOVE THE SFC IS PROGD FOR SUN
NIGHT LEADING TO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR SUN NIGHT BUT IF WINDS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD/THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ENSUING DURING THE WEEK...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS
OFFSHORE (HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH YET AS STILL A BIT EARLY AND
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS). BRIEF WARM
UP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. GOING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT (THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT). SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY BEHIND FRONT ON TUESDAY
COULD BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST LATE TUESDAY. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...AND MAIN IMPACTS FOR SOUTH TEXAS ARE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES (AS WELL AS HUMIDITY). HOWEVER...
ONCE AGAIN... APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS...AND MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN ENOUGH IN TIME FOR THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS/IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE A BIT BETTER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND STILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY (MAYBE SOME WEAK
CONVECTION/RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS). COOLER AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    52  63  53  75  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          47  62  51  73  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            50  67  54  80  54  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             51  64  51  78  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  63  52  72  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           48  66  50  79  49  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        53  63  51  78  59  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  64  57  72  62  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 202055
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
NELY FLOW. JUST ABV THE SFC...WINDS ARE PROGD TO BECOME MORE S TO SW
WHICH WILL DRAW MOISTURE OVR THE SHALLOW COLD DOME AND BRING PATCHY
-DZ/BR TO THE COASTAL BEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO
TRACK ACROSS S TX THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PATCHY
FOG/DZ SPREADING N AND W ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF -RA ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS
TO THE E THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED
TO END FROM W TO E. STRATUS/DZ WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE...BUT A TAD WARMER
ACROSS THE W WITH UPPER 60S AS SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THRU
THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING ABOVE THE SFC IS PROGD FOR SUN
NIGHT LEADING TO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR SUN NIGHT BUT IF WINDS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD/THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ENSUING DURING THE WEEK...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS
OFFSHORE (HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH YET AS STILL A BIT EARLY AND
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS). BRIEF WARM
UP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. GOING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT (THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT). SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY BEHIND FRONT ON TUESDAY
COULD BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST LATE TUESDAY. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...AND MAIN IMPACTS FOR SOUTH TEXAS ARE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES (AS WELL AS HUMIDITY). HOWEVER...
ONCE AGAIN... APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS...AND MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN ENOUGH IN TIME FOR THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS/IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE A BIT BETTER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND STILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY (MAYBE SOME WEAK
CONVECTION/RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS). COOLER AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    52  63  53  75  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          47  62  51  73  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            50  67  54  80  54  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             51  64  51  78  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  63  52  72  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           48  66  50  79  49  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        53  63  51  78  59  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  64  57  72  62  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 201722
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1122 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRATUS DECK ACROSS S TX WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LRD`S CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ALL SITES WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR TONIGHT. LIGHT
PATCHY FOG AND DZ WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AT
MVFR AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST LAYER UP TO
APPROXIMATELY 2800FT AND MUCH DRIER ALOFT. PER BOTH SATELLITE AND
RADAR...APPEARS A GRAVITY WAVE IS SURGING N ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND AND NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. THE CORPUS CHRISTI NAVY
BASE REPORTED A GUST TO 29KTS AS THIS FEATURED PUSHED THROUGH.
HOWEVER...IT WAS SHORT-LIVED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT TO MOD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE BELOW SCA THUS HAVE ALLOWED
THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...GENERALLY IFR CIGS THIS MRNG AT MAIN S TX AERODROMES
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY MIDDAY AND THRU THE AFTN. HIGH END MVFR TO
VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTN...WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
MID/LATE AFTN THRU EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AGAIN MID/LATE EVENING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD. LOWEST CIGS TONIGHT XPCTD FROM KLRD TO KCRP WITH
-DZ AND GRADUALLY LOWERING VSBYS. LIGHT NERLY WINDS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD /SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS AT KCRP/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  55  63  52  73  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          59  50  62  49  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            61  51  67  54  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             59  53  64  50  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  55  63  52  69  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           61  49  66  49  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        60  55  63  51  75  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       59  56  63  54  69  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 201722
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1122 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRATUS DECK ACROSS S TX WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LRD`S CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ALL SITES WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR TONIGHT. LIGHT
PATCHY FOG AND DZ WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AT
MVFR AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST LAYER UP TO
APPROXIMATELY 2800FT AND MUCH DRIER ALOFT. PER BOTH SATELLITE AND
RADAR...APPEARS A GRAVITY WAVE IS SURGING N ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND AND NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. THE CORPUS CHRISTI NAVY
BASE REPORTED A GUST TO 29KTS AS THIS FEATURED PUSHED THROUGH.
HOWEVER...IT WAS SHORT-LIVED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT TO MOD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE BELOW SCA THUS HAVE ALLOWED
THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...GENERALLY IFR CIGS THIS MRNG AT MAIN S TX AERODROMES
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY MIDDAY AND THRU THE AFTN. HIGH END MVFR TO
VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTN...WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
MID/LATE AFTN THRU EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AGAIN MID/LATE EVENING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD. LOWEST CIGS TONIGHT XPCTD FROM KLRD TO KCRP WITH
-DZ AND GRADUALLY LOWERING VSBYS. LIGHT NERLY WINDS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD /SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS AT KCRP/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  55  63  52  73  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          59  50  62  49  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            61  51  67  54  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             59  53  64  50  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  55  63  52  69  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           61  49  66  49  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        60  55  63  51  75  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       59  56  63  54  69  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 201504
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
904 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST LAYER UP TO
APPROXIMATELY 2800FT AND MUCH DRIER ALOFT. PER BOTH SATELLITE AND
RADAR...APPEARS A GRAVITY WAVE IS SURGING N ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND AND NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. THE CORPUS CHRISTI NAVY
BASE REPORTED A GUST TO 29KTS AS THIS FEATURED PUSHED THROUGH.
HOWEVER...IT WAS SHORT-LIVED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT TO MOD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE BELOW SCA THUS HAVE ALLOWED
THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...GENERALLY IFR CIGS THIS MRNG AT MAIN S TX AERODROMES
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY MIDDAY AND THRU THE AFTN. HIGH END MVFR TO
VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTN...WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
MID/LATE AFTN THRU EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AGAIN MID/LATE EVENING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD. LOWEST CIGS TONIGHT XPCTD FROM KLRD TO KCRP WITH
-DZ AND GRADUALLY LOWERING VSBYS. LIGHT NERLY WINDS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD /SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS AT KCRP/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  55  63  52  73  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          59  50  62  49  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            61  51  67  54  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             59  53  64  50  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  55  63  52  69  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           61  49  66  49  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        60  55  63  51  75  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       59  56  63  54  69  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 201504
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
904 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST LAYER UP TO
APPROXIMATELY 2800FT AND MUCH DRIER ALOFT. PER BOTH SATELLITE AND
RADAR...APPEARS A GRAVITY WAVE IS SURGING N ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND AND NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. THE CORPUS CHRISTI NAVY
BASE REPORTED A GUST TO 29KTS AS THIS FEATURED PUSHED THROUGH.
HOWEVER...IT WAS SHORT-LIVED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT TO MOD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE BELOW SCA THUS HAVE ALLOWED
THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...GENERALLY IFR CIGS THIS MRNG AT MAIN S TX AERODROMES
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY MIDDAY AND THRU THE AFTN. HIGH END MVFR TO
VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTN...WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
MID/LATE AFTN THRU EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AGAIN MID/LATE EVENING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD. LOWEST CIGS TONIGHT XPCTD FROM KLRD TO KCRP WITH
-DZ AND GRADUALLY LOWERING VSBYS. LIGHT NERLY WINDS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD /SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS AT KCRP/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  55  63  52  73  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          59  50  62  49  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            61  51  67  54  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             59  53  64  50  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  55  63  52  69  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           61  49  66  49  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        60  55  63  51  75  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       59  56  63  54  69  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 201136 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
536 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY IFR CIGS THIS MRNG AT MAIN S TX AERODROMES
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY MIDDAY AND THRU THE AFTN. HIGH END MVFR TO
VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTN...WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
MID/LATE AFTN THRU EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AGAIN MID/LATE EVENING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD. LOWEST CIGS TONIGHT XPCTD FROM KLRD TO KCRP WITH
-DZ AND GRADUALLY LOWERING VSBYS. LIGHT NERLY WINDS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD /SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS AT KCRP/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  55  63  52  73  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          59  50  62  49  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            61  51  67  54  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             59  53  64  50  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  55  63  52  69  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           61  49  66  49  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        60  55  63  51  75  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       59  56  63  54  69  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201136 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
536 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY IFR CIGS THIS MRNG AT MAIN S TX AERODROMES
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY MIDDAY AND THRU THE AFTN. HIGH END MVFR TO
VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTN...WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
MID/LATE AFTN THRU EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AGAIN MID/LATE EVENING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD. LOWEST CIGS TONIGHT XPCTD FROM KLRD TO KCRP WITH
-DZ AND GRADUALLY LOWERING VSBYS. LIGHT NERLY WINDS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD /SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS AT KCRP/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  55  63  52  73  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          59  50  62  49  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            61  51  67  54  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             59  53  64  50  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  55  63  52  69  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           61  49  66  49  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        60  55  63  51  75  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       59  56  63  54  69  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 201007
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
407 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STRATUS HAS SPREAD WESTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAS REACHED BEYOND THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS OF WRITING. A RATHER POTENT H5 VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY
RACING EASTWARD OVER CHIHUAHUA MX AND SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS
CRP/EWX CWAS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
MORNING /PRIMARILY SE COUNTIES/...BUT AS THE VORT MAX KICKS EAST
SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER MAY TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER WITH MOST AREA STRUGGLING TO REACH 60
DEGREES /AND EVEN THEN FORECAST TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE TO
OPTIMISTIC/. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS MODEST
WAA DEVELOPS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AN ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL VORT
MAX IS PROG TO APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE RRQ OF A
110KT H25 JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE BY LATE
TONIGHT /PRIMARILY SE COUNTIES/ AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AS MENTIONED VORT MAX KICKS EAST...AND IS THEN
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER ONE BY LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE GONE AT LEAST
A CATEGORY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS BEING THE WARMEST GIVEN
EXPECTED CLEARING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST ALONG THE EASTERN ZONES...SWIFTLY
EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. MONDAY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE TROUGH...USHERING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL SWIFTLY REBOUND TO TEN DEGREES OR
MORE WARMER THAN THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL QUICKLY COOL AGAIN AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY CHRISTMAS
DAY ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH DISCREPANCIES STILL LIE WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING
AND POSITION OF FROPA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  55  63  52  73  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          59  50  62  49  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            61  51  67  54  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             59  53  64  50  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  55  63  52  69  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           61  49  66  49  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        60  55  63  51  75  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       59  56  63  54  69  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201007
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
407 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STRATUS HAS SPREAD WESTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAS REACHED BEYOND THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS OF WRITING. A RATHER POTENT H5 VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY
RACING EASTWARD OVER CHIHUAHUA MX AND SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS
CRP/EWX CWAS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
MORNING /PRIMARILY SE COUNTIES/...BUT AS THE VORT MAX KICKS EAST
SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER MAY TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER WITH MOST AREA STRUGGLING TO REACH 60
DEGREES /AND EVEN THEN FORECAST TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE TO
OPTIMISTIC/. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS MODEST
WAA DEVELOPS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AN ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL VORT
MAX IS PROG TO APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE RRQ OF A
110KT H25 JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE BY LATE
TONIGHT /PRIMARILY SE COUNTIES/ AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AS MENTIONED VORT MAX KICKS EAST...AND IS THEN
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER ONE BY LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE GONE AT LEAST
A CATEGORY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS BEING THE WARMEST GIVEN
EXPECTED CLEARING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST ALONG THE EASTERN ZONES...SWIFTLY
EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. MONDAY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE TROUGH...USHERING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL SWIFTLY REBOUND TO TEN DEGREES OR
MORE WARMER THAN THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL QUICKLY COOL AGAIN AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY CHRISTMAS
DAY ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH DISCREPANCIES STILL LIE WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING
AND POSITION OF FROPA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  55  63  52  73  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          59  50  62  49  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            61  51  67  54  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             59  53  64  50  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  55  63  52  69  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           61  49  66  49  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        60  55  63  51  75  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       59  56  63  54  69  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 200530 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1130 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH
OF TOMORROW FOR EASTERN THREE TAF SITES. LRD SITE HAS CLEARED OUT
HOWEVER AND WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. TOWARD
MORNING...LOW CLOUDS COULD BUILD INTO LRD AREA...BUT FOG IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY. TOMORROW FORECAST DOESNT GET ANY EASIER WITH HIGH
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER EASTERN SITES. THINK LRD...IF THEY DROP TO
MVFR...WILL RETURN TO VFR BY MID/LATE MORNING WHILE OTHER SITES
REMAIN MVFR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO START TO WEAKEN LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND COULD START TO SCATTER OUT LOW DECK...BUT WILL
KEEP MID LEVEL DECK. HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT AS LOW MOISTURE COULD STILL HANG ON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  60  50  63  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
VICTORIA          48  59  45  62  47  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            50  62  50  66  51  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             50  60  49  64  50  /  10  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          50  58  51  62  53  /  10  10  20  30  10
COTULLA           46  60  45  64  48  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        51  60  50  64  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  60  52  62  55  /  10  10  20  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 200530 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1130 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH
OF TOMORROW FOR EASTERN THREE TAF SITES. LRD SITE HAS CLEARED OUT
HOWEVER AND WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. TOWARD
MORNING...LOW CLOUDS COULD BUILD INTO LRD AREA...BUT FOG IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY. TOMORROW FORECAST DOESNT GET ANY EASIER WITH HIGH
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER EASTERN SITES. THINK LRD...IF THEY DROP TO
MVFR...WILL RETURN TO VFR BY MID/LATE MORNING WHILE OTHER SITES
REMAIN MVFR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO START TO WEAKEN LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND COULD START TO SCATTER OUT LOW DECK...BUT WILL
KEEP MID LEVEL DECK. HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT AS LOW MOISTURE COULD STILL HANG ON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  60  50  63  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
VICTORIA          48  59  45  62  47  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            50  62  50  66  51  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             50  60  49  64  50  /  10  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          50  58  51  62  53  /  10  10  20  30  10
COTULLA           46  60  45  64  48  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        51  60  50  64  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  60  52  62  55  /  10  10  20  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 200409
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1009 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER TODAY WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE (SUBSIDENCE)
OCCURRING. DISPITE THIS SUBSIDENCE A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK WAS
ADVECTING INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH A MOISTURE DEPTH OF ABOUT 1500 FT.
EXPECT THE SUBSIDENCE TO HELP ERODE THE CLOUD DECK HOWEVER IT MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE BREAKS IN OVC TONIGHT. BASED ON TRENDS
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY FILL IN OUT WEST TOWARD
MORNING. ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER
NEW 00Z NAM SHOWING THIS IS LESS LIKELY. KEPT SCA`S FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT WEST...BUT HOLDING ON IN THE
EAST MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED TAF...ESPECIALLY FOR ALI AS CLEARING
LINE CURRENTLY VERY NEAR THIS TERMINAL. THINK ALI SITE WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. WHETHER IT STAYS CLEAR OR THE CLOUDS
BACK INTO TO AREA AGAIN IS THE QUESTION. HAVE TRIED TO COVER THIS
WITH TEMPO GROUPS EARLY. LRD SITE SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...GOING MVFR EARLY MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG AT LRD AND ALI SITES. VCT/CRP SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TO IFR DURING
THE NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS HOLD OVER THE REGION. THINK ALL SITES
SHOULD GO MVFR LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND AN OVERCAST MID LEVEL DECK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST TODAY TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT. ISOLD -SHRA`S
CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SOME EROSION OF CLOUDS HAS TAKEN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID SECTIONS OF S TX...HOWEVER LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MODELS PROG LIGHT PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW RELATIVELY DRIER
NEAR SFC LAYER. IF FOG DOES DVLP...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST 5SM OR BETTER...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FCST. WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20KT THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7FT. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z
SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY BE BELOW ADVISORY BY AROUND 12Z BUT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS KEEP CLOUDS IN THE
FCST THRU SAT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OVC CONDITIONS. WENT WITH
PC ACROSS THE W TO MC SKIES ACROSS THE E. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP HIGHS ON
SAT FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN CWA. BY SAT
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN WITH OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING INITIALLY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS SAT EVENING
THEN SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WARMING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...CAA AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
MN TEMPS SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST.  A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WITH MOSTLY
ABV NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WK.  WK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AXIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT WATERS.  BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THE S/WV TROUGH AXIS WL HAVE PASSED EAST AND USHER
IN DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND S/SW FLOW ON MONDAY...AFTN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S IN
MOST AREAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
BREEZY/SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT.  SFC AND UPR
LVL RIDGING WL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...
KEEPING A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AND AGAIN ON NEXT FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  60  50  63  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
VICTORIA          48  59  45  62  47  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            50  62  50  66  51  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             50  60  49  64  50  /  10  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          50  58  51  62  53  /  10  10  20  30  10
COTULLA           46  60  45  64  48  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        51  60  50  64  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  60  52  62  55  /  10  10  20  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 200409
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1009 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER TODAY WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE (SUBSIDENCE)
OCCURRING. DISPITE THIS SUBSIDENCE A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK WAS
ADVECTING INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH A MOISTURE DEPTH OF ABOUT 1500 FT.
EXPECT THE SUBSIDENCE TO HELP ERODE THE CLOUD DECK HOWEVER IT MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE BREAKS IN OVC TONIGHT. BASED ON TRENDS
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY FILL IN OUT WEST TOWARD
MORNING. ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER
NEW 00Z NAM SHOWING THIS IS LESS LIKELY. KEPT SCA`S FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT WEST...BUT HOLDING ON IN THE
EAST MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED TAF...ESPECIALLY FOR ALI AS CLEARING
LINE CURRENTLY VERY NEAR THIS TERMINAL. THINK ALI SITE WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. WHETHER IT STAYS CLEAR OR THE CLOUDS
BACK INTO TO AREA AGAIN IS THE QUESTION. HAVE TRIED TO COVER THIS
WITH TEMPO GROUPS EARLY. LRD SITE SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...GOING MVFR EARLY MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG AT LRD AND ALI SITES. VCT/CRP SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TO IFR DURING
THE NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS HOLD OVER THE REGION. THINK ALL SITES
SHOULD GO MVFR LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND AN OVERCAST MID LEVEL DECK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST TODAY TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT. ISOLD -SHRA`S
CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SOME EROSION OF CLOUDS HAS TAKEN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID SECTIONS OF S TX...HOWEVER LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MODELS PROG LIGHT PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW RELATIVELY DRIER
NEAR SFC LAYER. IF FOG DOES DVLP...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST 5SM OR BETTER...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FCST. WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20KT THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7FT. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z
SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY BE BELOW ADVISORY BY AROUND 12Z BUT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS KEEP CLOUDS IN THE
FCST THRU SAT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OVC CONDITIONS. WENT WITH
PC ACROSS THE W TO MC SKIES ACROSS THE E. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP HIGHS ON
SAT FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN CWA. BY SAT
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN WITH OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING INITIALLY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS SAT EVENING
THEN SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WARMING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...CAA AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
MN TEMPS SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST.  A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WITH MOSTLY
ABV NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WK.  WK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AXIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT WATERS.  BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THE S/WV TROUGH AXIS WL HAVE PASSED EAST AND USHER
IN DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND S/SW FLOW ON MONDAY...AFTN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S IN
MOST AREAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
BREEZY/SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT.  SFC AND UPR
LVL RIDGING WL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...
KEEPING A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AND AGAIN ON NEXT FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  60  50  63  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
VICTORIA          48  59  45  62  47  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            50  62  50  66  51  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             50  60  49  64  50  /  10  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          50  58  51  62  53  /  10  10  20  30  10
COTULLA           46  60  45  64  48  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        51  60  50  64  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  60  52  62  55  /  10  10  20  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM






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