000
FXUS64 KCRP 232350
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
650 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AFTER SUNSET AS
LOW STRATUS FORMS AND LOWERS. EXPECT STRATUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...OCNLY BECMG IFR IN SOME SPOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME VFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND HAZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BENEATH WEAK MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SIERRA MADRE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE BRINGING COMPLEX OF STORMS OUT OF WEST TEXAS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THE STORMS WOULD REACH THE LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES AND
WILL JUST HAVE A SILENT 10 POP OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE WEAKENING THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AND SLIGHT MID LEVEL COOLING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MOISTURE AXIS WILL DRIFT SLIGHT EAST
AS WELL...INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WEAK FORCING COULD GENERATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS LA SALLE AND
WEBB COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TOMORROW...BUT WARM WITH PATCHY HAZE.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. WITH
MOISTURE CONTINUING OUT WEST WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20 POPS FOR THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE THEN
STRENGTHENS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
HOT TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN US IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST BY MID WEEK AS WELL. WHILE
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD THEY ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW. THE MORE
REASONABLE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS THE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS THE TROUGH
UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH...INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS. NOT READY TO INTRODUCE ANY POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 90 77 91 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 73 88 73 90 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 95 76 94 75 / 10 20 20 20 10
ALICE 76 90 76 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 85 77 87 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 95 76 96 72 / 10 20 20 20 10
KINGSVILLE 77 90 76 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 77 84 76 85 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JV/71...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 232038
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND HAZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BENEATH WEAK MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SIERRA MADRE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE BRINGING COMPLEX OF STORMS OUT OF WEST TEXAS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THE STORMS WOULD REACH THE LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES AND
WILL JUST HAVE A SILENT 10 POP OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE WEAKENING THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AND SLIGHT MID LEVEL COOLING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MOISTURE AXIS WILL DRIFT SLIGHT EAST
AS WELL...INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WEAK FORCING COULD GENERATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS LA SALLE AND
WEBB COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TOMORROW...BUT WARM WITH PATCHY HAZE.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. WITH
MOISTURE CONTINUING OUT WEST WILL HOLD ONTO THE 20 POPS FOR THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BUT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE THEN
STRENGTHENS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
HOT TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN US IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST BY MID WEEK AS WELL. WHILE
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD THEY ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW. THE MORE
REASONABLE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS THE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS THE TROUGH
UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH...INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS. NOT READY TO INTRODUCE ANY POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 90 77 91 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 73 88 73 90 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 95 76 94 75 / 10 20 20 20 10
ALICE 76 90 76 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 85 77 87 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 95 76 96 72 / 10 20 20 20 10
KINGSVILLE 77 90 76 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 77 84 76 85 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 231804
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
104 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH 19-20Z...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
TO AT TIMES BKN CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET. HAZE FROM SMOKE
ORIGINATING IN MEXICO WILL PRODUCE 6-7SM VISIBILITIES AT SOME
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON (3-4SM VISIBILITIES AT SOME
OFFSHORE LOCATIONS). STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS BY 03-04Z AND LRD BY 07Z. GENERALLY MVFR IN
STRATUS...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TEMPO IFR. SE WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.
MORNING STRATUS WILL SCATTER IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE
OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION ALSO. AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN NEW MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD SO DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE ABOVE MODERATE LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY AND THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
GENERATE CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT COULD MOVE CLOSE TO
THE RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT AND LEAVE OUT WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW DVLPG ACROSS W TX AND SLOWLY MOVG E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE W CWA
OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ON SAT. AIRMASS IS PROGD TO BE UNSTABLE
AND PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO INCREASE TO ABV 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA.
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR COT HAS AROUND 50 PERCENT CHC OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS ONLY 20 PERCENT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP
FOR THE WESTERN CWA FOR SAT BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER AS
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LOW LEVEL FORCING OTHER THAN SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE W CWA. MODELS KEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS DRAPED ACROSS SE AND
S TX SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON THE LESS FAVORABLE W SIDE OF THE TROF. A DRIER
AIRMASS IS PRGD TO BE ACROSS THE E CWA AND GULF WATERS THRU THE
WEEKEND. KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE W FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGD TO BE ACROSS MEX AND THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. RIDGING ALOFT THEN TAKES HOLD MON/TUE WITH LITTLE TO
NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WARMER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING E AS A LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE W U.S. RESULTING IN DEEPER MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
INTO S TX BY WED. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR WED BUT IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. AS FOR
WINDS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY NEXT TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 87 76 91 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 73 88 73 89 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 97 77 97 77 / 10 10 10 20 10
ALICE 75 91 75 92 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 76 84 76 84 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 95 73 97 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 76 90 75 92 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 77 84 76 84 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 231134 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE NOT LOWERED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED WITH
MOST OF THE AREA WITH MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500-2000 FEET. THERE ARE
EVEN SOME BREAKS EVIDENT ON LOW CLOUD/FOG LOOP OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN RESTRICTED THIS MORNING
EITHER...BUT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF SHOW LOWER VSBYS IN
HAZE/SMOKE AND EXPECT SOME OF THIS HAZE WILL REACH THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABOVE 2 KFT
AROUND 15Z AND LIFT TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SCATTER
OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS BY 03-04Z AND LRD BY 07Z. KEPT CIGS AT MVFR FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXCEPT VCT AREA WHERE IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.
MORNING STRATUS WILL SCATTER IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE
OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION ALSO. AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN NEW MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD SO DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE ABOVE MODERATE LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY AND THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
GENERATE CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT COULD MOVE CLOSE TO
THE RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT AND LEAVE OUT WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW DVLPG ACROSS W TX AND SLOWLY MOVG E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE W CWA
OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ON SAT. AIRMASS IS PROGD TO BE UNSTABLE
AND PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO INCREASE TO ABV 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA.
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR COT HAS AROUND 50 PERCENT CHC OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS ONLY 20 PERCENT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP
FOR THE WESTERN CWA FOR SAT BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER AS
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LOW LEVEL FORCING OTHER THAN SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE W CWA. MODELS KEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS DRAPED ACROSS SE AND
S TX SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON THE LESS FAVORABLE W SIDE OF THE TROF. A DRIER
AIRMASS IS PRGD TO BE ACROSS THE E CWA AND GULF WATERS THRU THE
WEEKEND. KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE W FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGD TO BE ACROSS MEX AND THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. RIDGING ALOFT THEN TAKES HOLD MON/TUE WITH LITTLE TO
NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WARMER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING E AS A LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE W U.S. RESULTING IN DEEPER MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
INTO S TX BY WED. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR WED BUT IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. AS FOR
WINDS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY NEXT TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 76 87 76 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 90 73 88 73 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 98 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 20
ALICE 92 75 91 75 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 85 76 84 76 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 96 74 95 73 97 / 10 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 90 76 90 75 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 77 84 76 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 230906
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
406 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.
MORNING STRATUS WILL SCATTER IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE
OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION ALSO. AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN NEW MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD SO DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE ABOVE MODERATE LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY AND THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
GENERATE CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT COULD MOVE CLOSE TO
THE RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT AND LEAVE OUT WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW DVLPG ACROSS W TX AND SLOWLY MOVG E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE W CWA
OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ON SAT. AIRMASS IS PROGD TO BE UNSTABLE
AND PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO INCREASE TO ABV 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA.
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR COT HAS AROUND 50 PERCENT CHC OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS ONLY 20 PERCENT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP
FOR THE WESTERN CWA FOR SAT BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER AS
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LOW LEVEL FORCING OTHER THAN SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE W CWA. MODELS KEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS DRAPED ACROSS SE AND
S TX SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON THE LESS FAVORABLE W SIDE OF THE TROF. A DRIER
AIRMASS IS PRGD TO BE ACROSS THE E CWA AND GULF WATERS THRU THE
WEEKEND. KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE W FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGD TO BE ACROSS MEX AND THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. RIDGING ALOFT THEN TAKES HOLD MON/TUE WITH LITTLE TO
NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WARMER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING E AS A LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE W U.S. RESULTING IN DEEPER MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
INTO S TX BY WED. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR WED BUT IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. AS FOR
WINDS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY NEXT TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 76 87 76 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 90 73 88 73 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 98 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 20
ALICE 92 75 91 75 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 85 76 84 76 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 96 74 95 73 97 / 10 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 90 76 90 75 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 77 84 76 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 230542 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS BEGINNING TO FILL IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR AROUND 800 FT. VSBYS HAVE
IMPROVED FROM EARLIER HAZE RESTRICTIONS BUT EXPECT VSBYS WILL FALL
BACK TO MVFR RANGE OVER THE AREA BY 09Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REACH
LRD BY 09Z ALSO...BUT LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH HAZE RESTRICTING VSBYS. VFR CONDS EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO MID EVENING. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL SITES BY 03-04Z
FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 89 76 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 89 73 89 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 76 97 77 97 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 91 75 93 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 82 76 84 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 96 73 97 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 91 75 92 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 77 84 76 84 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 222307
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
607 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR BY 03Z MOST LOCATIONS AS LOW STRATUS DECK ROLLS IN.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE RESTRICTED DUE TO SMOKE/HAZE FROM THE
YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AGAIN THURSDAY. CEILINGS/VSBY`S
WILL LIFT TO VFR RANGE BY NOON ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND ATMOSPHERE DRIES SLIGHTLY. MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 13KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 92 77 89 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 74 89 75 89 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 97 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 75 93 76 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 86 77 82 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 97 75 96 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 92 77 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 77 84 77 84 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JM/75...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 222012
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
312 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...THE WEAK COLD FRONT
HAS LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH
OUT. WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALONG WITH SLIGHT DRYING. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
WIND TOMORROW. WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MIXING TODAY HAS
RESULTED IN MORE PREVALENT HAZE AND SMOKE OVER THE REGION...
ORIGINATING FROM THE AGRICULTURAL BURNS IN MEXICO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY STILL CONFIRMS A DEEP FETCH OF SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPEHCE...SO PERIODS OF HAZY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY BUT HUMID AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS TRAP
MOISTURE UNDER A LARGE CAP FRIDAY/SATURDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF
TEMPERATURES A BIT IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE HUMIDITY AND POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER. MODELS BACK OFF ON MOISTURE POOLING SUN/MON AS RIDGE
REBUILDS SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS THEN DISAGREE ON THE DISPOSITION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.
GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND ACTUALLY PRODUCES PRECIPITATION FROM VERY
LARGE PWAT VALUES AND MODERATE FORCING IN THE WED/WED NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. GIVEN WHAT IT HAS TO WORK WITH THIS APPEARS A BIT
OVERDONE SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW OUT ON THAT END OF
THE PERIOD AND WAIT FOR SOME CONTINUITY OR AGREEMENT. IN THE
MEANTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOA NORMALS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ONSHORE WIND FLOW PATTERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 92 77 89 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 74 89 75 89 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 97 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 75 93 76 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 86 77 82 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 97 75 96 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 92 77 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 77 84 77 84 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 221739
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...BKN CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD RISE INTO VFR RANGE. SMOKE THAT
ORIGINATED FROM MEXICO WILL ALSO PRODUCE HAZE ISSUES TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. VISIBILITIES IN THE 5-6SM RANGE WILL OCCUR IN MANY
LOCATIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO 2-4SM. MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND THIS EVENING...AND EXPAND INLAND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY E TO SE
WINDS 5-10 KTS BECOMING SE 8-12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS LATE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 90 75 89 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 72 90 74 89 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 100 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 73 94 75 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 76 88 75 82 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 73 97 74 96 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 74 92 75 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 85 75 84 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 221456
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
956 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR A PORT
LAVACA TO MATHIS TO ENCINAL LINE...AND WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE
DIFFUSE THROUGH THE DAY. STILL COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH
MIDDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS FOR TODAY AS WELL AS TO
RE-ESTABLISH TRENDS ON WINDS/DEW POINT/RH. HAZE/SMOKE TO PERSIST
ACROSS COASTAL BEND AND MARINE AREAS TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF A PORT LAVACA TO
LAREDO LINE AT 11Z. IFR CEILINGS ARE PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED. MVFR CEILINGS ARE HOLDING
OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY EXCEPT AROUND COT WHERE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED IN AND CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE 3 KFT. EXPECT
IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z THEN MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT OF THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDS. THE
LOW CLOUDS/LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAINS
BY 02Z-03Z...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 08Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED
INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR A PORT LAVACA TO ENCINAL
LINE AT 09Z. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 85H
ELEVATED ABOVE THE SHALLOW FRONT...ALONG WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS...PROVIDES
LIFT OVER THIS AREA TO OVER CAP. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
DIFFUSE BY THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. PERSISTENT AREA OF HAZE/SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LEAD TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...MODELS
PROG A SHORT WAVE TO ROUND THE TOP PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
DRAW MOISTURE N...MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA...BUT MOISTURE STILL
LOOKS TOO LIMITED AND A MARGINAL CAP IS PROGD TO BE IN PLACE SO WILL
NOT MENTION PRECIP JUST YET FOR FRI. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL AS A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT DO HAVE 10 POPS STRETCHING TO THE NE CWA FRI EVENING AS
THE FIRST UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS S TX
SUNDAY/MON AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW...LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR WINDS...WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE MODELS WHICH WAS A FEW KNOTS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCSTD...MAINLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 75 90 75 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 72 90 74 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 97 77 100 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 92 73 94 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 87 76 88 75 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 96 73 97 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 91 74 92 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 76 85 75 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 221141 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF A PORT LAVACA TO
LAREDO LINE AT 11Z. IFR CEILINGS ARE PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED. MVFR CEILINGS ARE HOLDING
OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY EXCEPT AROUND COT WHERE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED IN AND CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE 3 KFT. EXPECT
IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z THEN MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT OF THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDS. THE
LOW CLOUDS/LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAINS
BY 02Z-03Z...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 08Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED
INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR A PORT LAVACA TO ENCINAL
LINE AT 09Z. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 85H
ELEVATED ABOVE THE SHALLOW FRONT...ALONG WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS...PROVIDES
LIFT OVER THIS AREA TO OVER CAP. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
DIFFUSE BY THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. PERSISTENT AREA OF HAZE/SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LEAD TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...MODELS
PROG A SHORT WAVE TO ROUND THE TOP PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
DRAW MOISTURE N...MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA...BUT MOISTURE STILL
LOOKS TOO LIMITED AND A MARGINAL CAP IS PROGD TO BE IN PLACE SO WILL
NOT MENTION PRECIP JUST YET FOR FRI. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL AS A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT DO HAVE 10 POPS STRETCHING TO THE NE CWA FRI EVENING AS
THE FIRST UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS S TX
SUNDAY/MON AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW...LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR WINDS...WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE MODELS WHICH WAS A FEW KNOTS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCSTD...MAINLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 75 90 75 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 72 90 74 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 99 77 100 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 93 73 94 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 87 76 88 75 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 95 73 97 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 91 74 92 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 76 85 75 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 220929
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
429 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED
INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR A PORT LAVACA TO ENCINAL
LINE AT 09Z. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 85H
ELEVATED ABOVE THE SHALLOW FRONT...ALONG WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS...PROVIDES
LIFT OVER THIS AREA TO OVER CAP. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
DIFFUSE BY THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. PERSISTENT AREA OF HAZE/SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LEAD TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...MODELS
PROG A SHORT WAVE TO ROUND THE TOP PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
DRAW MOISTURE N...MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA...BUT MOISTURE STILL
LOOKS TOO LIMITED AND A MARGINAL CAP IS PROGD TO BE IN PLACE SO WILL
NOT MENTION PRECIP JUST YET FOR FRI. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL AS A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT DO HAVE 10 POPS STRETCHING TO THE NE CWA FRI EVENING AS
THE FIRST UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS S TX
SUNDAY/MON AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW...LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR WINDS...WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE MODELS WHICH WAS A FEW KNOTS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCSTD...MAINLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 75 90 75 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 72 90 74 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 99 77 100 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 93 73 94 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 87 76 88 75 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 95 73 97 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 91 74 92 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 76 85 75 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 220542 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...LOOP OF KCRP RADAR SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT MOVING
SOUTH AT 20 MPH INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. LOW STRATUS HAS
MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM IFR IN THE
COASTAL BEND TO LOW END MVFR IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OR COASTAL
BEND LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL PUSH LOW CLOUDS WESTWARD INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY REACHING LRD
AREA BY 09Z. ONLY PLACED A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VCT TAF
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SCATTER OUT BY 18Z AREA-WIDE. VFR CONDS
WILL EXIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING
TO THE COASTAL PLAINS BY 02-03Z THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP AS OF WRITING AS SSW
FLOW FROM H95 TO H7, PER 00Z AREA RAOBS, IS LIKELY NEGATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST AVAILABLE HRRR AND 18Z TTU WRF ALSO INDICATE
ONLY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE LOWERED
POPS FOR TONIGHT AREAWIDE. STILL THINK A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NE ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION THROUGH
THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF HAZE AND SMOKE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT AS SMOKE
FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES OVER STATE OF YUCATAN MEX CONTINUES TO
IMPACT S TX. AIR PARTICULATES WILL LIKELY POOL ALONG STALLING WEAK
SFC FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF HAZE/SMOKINESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS
TO BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 92 75 91 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 73 90 74 89 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 76 98 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 73 93 75 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 75 86 75 85 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 73 98 74 96 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 74 92 75 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 75 84 75 84 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 220206 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
906 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...CONVETION HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP AS OF WRITING AS SSW
FLOW FROM H95 TO H7, PER 00Z AREA RAOBS, IS LIKELY NEGATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST AVAILABLE HRRR AND 18Z TTU WRF ALSO INDICATE
ONLY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE LOWERED
POPS FOR TONIGHT AREAWIDE. STILL THINK A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NE ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION THROUGH
THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF HAZE AND SMOKE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT AS SMOKE
FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES OVER STATE OF YUCATAN MEX CONTINUES TO
IMPACT S TX. AIR PARTICULATES WILL LIKELY POOL ALONG STALLING WEAK
SFC FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF HAZE/SMOKINESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS
TO BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 89 75 92 75 / 10 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 89 73 90 74 / 20 20 10 10 10
LAREDO 76 97 76 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 75 93 73 93 75 / 10 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 76 80 75 86 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 73 96 73 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 91 74 92 75 / 10 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 84 75 84 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HART/79
000
FXUS64 KCRP 212347
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...A TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING WEST OF
U.S. ROUTE 281 AND OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. A RISK FOR
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT (AT LEAST TILL AROUND 09Z WED) OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BRIEF MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 10-14Z WED PERIOD. A TRANSITION
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SE/E WEAK SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SE
FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...VORT MAX LOBE WILL
ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO
SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 00Z. WEAKENING IN THE CAP IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...YET REMAIN STRONG ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH UPPER
SUPPORT IN A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND INCREASED 70KT JET...AM EXPECTING
STORM DEVELOPMENT TO REACH WESTERN AREAS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
STRONGEST OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE CAP WEAKENS
FARTHER EAST...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO MAKE IT
TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE TO NO
CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO HEATING MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR WILL END RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM YET BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH PERSISTENT WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS THAT DEVELOPS ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND MEXICO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW GIVEN UNCLEAR HOW
MUCH CAP WILL ERODE EACH AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP
ZFP/GRIDS DRY FOR THE MOMENT BUT LEAVE A SILENT 10 POP OUT WEST.
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS...BUT STILL WARM AFTERNOONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 89 75 92 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 89 73 90 74 / 30 20 10 10 10
LAREDO 76 97 76 98 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 75 93 73 93 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 76 80 75 86 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 73 96 73 98 74 / 30 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 91 74 92 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 84 75 84 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 212051
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
351 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...VORT MAX LOBE WILL
ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO
SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 00Z. WEAKENING IN THE CAP IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...YET REMAIN STRONG ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH UPPER
SUPPORT IN A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND INCREASED 70KT JET...AM EXPECTING
STORM DEVELOPMENT TO REACH WESTERN AREAS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
STRONGEST OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE CAP WEAKENS
FARTHER EAST...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO MAKE IT
TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE TO NO
CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO HEATING MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR WILL END RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM YET BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH PERSISTENT WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS THAT DEVELOPS ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND MEXICO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW GIVEN UNCLEAR HOW
MUCH CAP WILL ERODE EACH AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP
ZFP/GRIDS DRY FOR THE MOMENT BUT LEAVE A SILENT 10 POP OUT WEST.
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS...BUT STILL WARM AFTERNOONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 89 75 92 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 89 73 90 74 / 30 20 10 10 10
LAREDO 76 97 76 98 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 75 93 73 93 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 76 80 75 86 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 73 96 73 98 74 / 30 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 91 74 92 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 84 75 84 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 211815 AAC
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
115 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT/BKN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 25KTS (LESS AT LRD). WINDS SHOULD RELAX WITH THE
APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECTING THE DEVELOPING LINE OF
STORMS OVER NORTHERN TEXAS TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REACH SOUTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. A STRONG CAP REMAINS OVER THE AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FROM WEST TO EAST...EXPECTING
MOSTLY SHOWERS HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL EXIST FOR
LRD AND VCT WHERE THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN THE MOST. THE 4KM WRF
MODELS SUGGEST THAT OVERNIGHT THE LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE COAST AS THE CAP FURTHER ERODES HOWEVER WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR ALI AND CRP.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GENERAL LIGHT
ESE WINDS DEVELOPING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 77 92 74 92 / 10 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 76 89 73 90 / 10 30 20 10 10
LAREDO 100 76 98 76 99 / 10 20 10 10 10
ALICE 93 76 94 73 94 / 10 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 76 82 75 86 / 10 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 99 74 96 73 97 / 10 30 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 90 77 93 74 93 / 10 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 84 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS.
&&
$$
CB/85...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 211617 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1117 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AS WELL AS INCREASED
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO RELAX INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING A LINE OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING THE WESTERN CWA THIS
EVENING...MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. AN INCREASED UPPER JET AND
WEAKENING CAP ACROSS THIS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAYS THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO ISSUE AN SCA FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...THE CRP TAF SITE CURRENTLY HAS IFR CIGS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE AT MVFR LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING AS THE STRATUS DECK MIXES OUT/LIFTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD BE A FEW KNOTS LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BDRY MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX. TSRA`S CHCS WILL INCREASE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS FROM LRD TO COT THEN SHIFTING E
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR
TSRA`S FOR LRD AND VCT DUE TO BETTER DYNAMICS ACROSS THE W AND NRN
PORTIONS OF S TX. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
FARTHER SE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF S TX.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TAP
ALONG WITH GENERALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS/WINDY ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL
BEND....ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A COUPLE OF KNOTS LESS THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT/WED AS
AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS TX AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BDRY ACROSS N
AND CENTRAL TX...THUS RELAXING THE GRADIENT ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG
AN INVERTED TROF TO DVLP ACROSS MEX AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHD OF THE FRONTAL BDRY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE W CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS PROG MOISTURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS S TX WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE NW CWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS POOL OF MOISTURE THEN SHIFTS E OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALSO PROG
THE ENVIRONMENT TO BE UNSTABLE...HOWEVER A STRONG CAP WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE TODAY BUT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS COOL. KEPT SILENT 10 POPS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG CAP. AS
THE UPPER TROF NEARS THE W CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PRECIP CHCS INCREASE BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SRN CWA AND
LOW END CHC ACROSS THE NRN CWA TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING THE BETTER
CHCS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
LOCATED. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX JUST N OF THE CWA WITH
GENERAL TSRA`S ACROSS THE CWA. AM EXPECTING THAT CONVECTION TO THE
N AND NW OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER S AND SE
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE ELEVATED
STORMS MAKE IT FARTHER S DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NE CWA ON WED DUE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM EXITING
TO THE NE AND MERGING WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
TODAY AND AGAIN WED.
MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MODERATE TODAY BUT WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL
BDRY MVG INTO CENTRAL TX AND RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS S
TX. A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ON WED.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOSE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MID/UPPER 90S OUT WEST TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO CREEP BACK ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN CONVECTION OVER MEXICO MAY BE A POSSIBILITY...
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS AS TO WHETHER STORMS WOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES DUE TO STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. DO NOT FEEL IT IS
WORTH A MENTIONABLE POP AT THIS TIME SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 77 92 74 92 / 10 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 76 89 73 90 / 10 30 20 10 10
LAREDO 100 76 98 76 99 / 10 20 10 10 10
ALICE 93 76 94 73 94 / 10 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 76 82 75 86 / 10 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 99 74 96 73 97 / 10 30 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 90 77 93 74 93 / 10 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 84 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS.
&&
$$
CB/85...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 211130
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...THE CRP TAF SITE CURRENTLY HAS IFR CIGS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE AT MVFR LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING AS THE STRATUS DECK MIXES OUT/LIFTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD BE A FEW KNOTS LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BDRY MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX. TSRA`S CHCS WILL INCREASE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS FROM LRD TO COT THEN SHIFTING E
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR
TSRA`S FOR LRD AND VCT DUE TO BETTER DYNAMICS ACROSS THE W AND NRN
PORTIONS OF S TX. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
FARTHER SE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF S TX.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TAP
ALONG WITH GENERALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS/WINDY ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL
BEND....ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A COUPLE OF KNOTS LESS THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT/WED AS
AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS TX AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BDRY ACROSS N
AND CENTRAL TX...THUS RELAXING THE GRADIENT ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG
AN INVERTED TROF TO DVLP ACROSS MEX AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHD OF THE FRONTAL BDRY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE W CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS PROG MOISTURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS S TX WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE NW CWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS POOL OF MOISTURE THEN SHIFTS E OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALSO PROG
THE ENVIRONMENT TO BE UNSTABLE...HOWEVER A STRONG CAP WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE TODAY BUT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS COOL. KEPT SILENT 10 POPS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG CAP. AS
THE UPPER TROF NEARS THE W CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PRECIP CHCS INCREASE BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SRN CWA AND
LOW END CHC ACROSS THE NRN CWA TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING THE BETTER
CHCS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
LOCATED. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX JUST N OF THE CWA WITH
GENERAL TSRA`S ACROSS THE CWA. AM EXPECTING THAT CONVECTION TO THE
N AND NW OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER S AND SE
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE ELEVATED
STORMS MAKE IT FARTHER S DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NE CWA ON WED DUE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM EXITING
TO THE NE AND MERGING WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
TODAY AND AGAIN WED.
MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MODERATE TODAY BUT WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL
BDRY MVG INTO CENTRAL TX AND RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS S
TX. A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ON WED.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOSE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MID/UPPER 90S OUT WEST TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO CREEP BACK ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN CONVECTION OVER MEXICO MAY BE A POSSIBILITY...
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS AS TO WHETHER STORMS WOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES DUE TO STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. DO NOT FEEL IT IS
WORTH A MENTIONABLE POP AT THIS TIME SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 77 92 74 92 / 10 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 76 89 73 90 / 10 30 20 10 10
LAREDO 100 76 98 76 99 / 10 20 10 10 10
ALICE 93 76 94 73 94 / 10 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 76 82 75 86 / 10 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 99 74 96 73 97 / 10 30 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 90 77 93 74 93 / 10 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 84 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 210924
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
424 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TAP
ALONG WITH GENERALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS/WINDY ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL
BEND....ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A COUPLE OF KNOTS LESS THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT/WED AS
AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS TX AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BDRY ACROSS N
AND CENTRAL TX...THUS RELAXING THE GRADIENT ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG
AN INVERTED TROF TO DVLP ACROSS MEX AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHD OF THE FRONTAL BDRY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE W CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS PROG MOISTURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS S TX WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE NW CWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS POOL OF MOISTURE THEN SHIFTS E OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALSO PROG
THE ENVIRONMENT TO BE UNSTABLE...HOWEVER A STRONG CAP WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE TODAY BUT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS COOL. KEPT SILENT 10 POPS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG CAP. AS
THE UPPER TROF NEARS THE W CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PRECIP CHCS INCREASE BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SRN CWA AND
LOW END CHC ACROSS THE NRN CWA TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING THE BETTER
CHCS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
LOCATED. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX JUST N OF THE CWA WITH
GENERAL TSRA`S ACROSS THE CWA. AM EXPECTING THAT CONVECTION TO THE
N AND NW OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER S AND SE
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE ELEVATED
STORMS MAKE IT FARTHER S DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NE CWA ON WED DUE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM EXITING
TO THE NE AND MERGING WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
TODAY AND AGAIN WED.
&&
.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MODERATE TODAY BUT WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL
BDRY MVG INTO CENTRAL TX AND RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS S
TX. A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ON WED.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOSE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MID/UPPER 90S OUT WEST TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO CREEP BACK ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN CONVECTION OVER MEXICO MAY BE A POSSIBILITY...
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS AS TO WHETHER STORMS WOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES DUE TO STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. DO NOT FEEL IT IS
WORTH A MENTIONABLE POP AT THIS TIME SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 77 92 74 92 / 10 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 76 89 73 90 / 10 30 20 10 10
LAREDO 100 76 98 76 99 / 10 20 10 10 10
ALICE 93 76 94 73 94 / 10 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 76 82 75 86 / 10 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 99 74 96 73 97 / 10 30 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 90 77 93 74 93 / 10 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 84 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 210550
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONT ACROSS THE ERN CWA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EFFECTING ALI...CRP AND VCT BUT ALSO LRD
BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH TUE AND AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LEADING
TO A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THE
LRD TAF FOR TUE EVENING...BUT AREAS N OF LRD HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
CONVECTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...AS OF WRITING...KDFX WSR 88D INDICATED A STRONG TO
SEVERE SUPERCELL OVER NE COAHUILA MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
0130Z MESOANALYSIS OF THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS STORMS
INDICATES SUFFICIENT H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT BISECTING A CORRIDOR
OF MLCAPE VALUES OF APPROX 5000 J/KG THAT EXTEND FROM JUST WEST OF
LAREDO NORTHEAST TO NEAR PEARSALL. HOWEVER...CINH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER OLD MEX SHOULD
DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING WEBB COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ONGOING CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A LATE EVENING
FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE LIKELY TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING
CONVECTION AND TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THICK DEBRIS CIRRUS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 92 76 92 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 89 73 90 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
LAREDO 76 98 76 98 76 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 76 86 76 86 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 98 73 97 72 / 30 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 93 74 93 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 75 85 75 85 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 210149 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
849 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF WRITING...KDFX WSR 88D INDICATED A STRONG TO
SEVERE SUPERCELL OVER NE COAHUILA MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
0130Z MESOANALYSIS OF THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS STORMS
INDICATES SUFFICIENT H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT BISECTING A CORRIDOR
OF MLCAPE VALUES OF APPROX 5000 J/KG THAT EXTEND FROM JUST WEST OF
LAREDO NORTHEAST TO NEAR PEARSALL. HOWEVER...CINH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER OLD MEX SHOULD
DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING WEBB COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ONGOING CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A LATE EVENING
FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE LIKELY TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING
CONVECTION AND TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THICK DEBRIS CIRRUS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 90 76 92 76 / 10 10 20 10 10
VICTORIA 76 89 75 89 73 / 10 10 20 20 10
LAREDO 76 100 76 98 76 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALICE 75 93 76 94 74 / 10 10 20 10 10
ROCKPORT 76 84 76 86 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 99 74 98 73 / 10 10 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 90 77 93 74 / 10 10 20 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 84 75 85 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HART/79
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