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000
FXUS64 KCRP 262321 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
621 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...First, confidence in convection developing over the
mountains of Mexico this evening is waning, as KLRD winds are more
SSE than SE (or even better ESE). However, will maintain a VCTS
for 03Z time frame as there is still some suggestion that
moisture advection may be proximate enough and cap may weaken (and
winds back a bit more) to bring convection to the area. Elsewhere,
will not mention showers/thunder tonight with only VCSH overnight
at KVCT where some energy from upper trough could impact area.
Otherwise, as usual winds diminish slowly and veer overnight with
MVFR ceilings developing again this evening and overnight eastern
terminals. Am not sure we will see MVFR ceilings at KLRD so for
now went with a tempo group toward 12Z. For Friday, will maintain
or put in showers at KCRP for the morning, and thunder at KVCT
for the late morning and afternoon, although thunder by late
afternoon may be well to the north and east. Looking at the
pressure gradient for Friday, am expecting gusty SSE winds KCRP
and KVCT after sunrise, with less wind and more south at KLRD.
Will keep some gusts in KALI for 15Z and beyond, although winds
could diminish enough by 21Z as surface trough approaches the
terminal and weakens gradient.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
 by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night)...Majority of
convection this morning and afternoon has remained to the
northeast of the region with a backbuilding MCS located over
southeast Texas. Another impulse is progged to move off upper low
as it moves further east tonight. Confidence is still lower in
thunderstorms making it into the region again tonight. Convection
has been developing well west of the region over the Sierra Madres
and could push further in from the west overnight. High CAPE
values remain over the region, and if convection does make it into
the region, could see some strong storms with hail and gusty winds
develop. However, overall better dynamics still remain to the
north of the region. Tomorrow confidence is a little better as
upper low lifts northeast over the panhandles. A dryline will push
in from the west and diffluent region of upper jet noses into
south Texas, with the majority of the convection concentrated
across our eastern zones. Kept a mention of slight chance PoPs
through Friday night for any lingering convection. PWAT values
remain well above normal for the time of year tonight, but
higher moisture will decrease Friday afternoon into Friday night.

South southeast winds have strengthened in response to tightening
pressure gradient from surface low over northwest Texas. Seas will
build in response to persistent onshore flow, and a small craft
advisory has been issued for the middle Texas coastal waters
through tomorrow night.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)...Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue for much of the extended. Upper level
ridge will build northward this weekend. However, moisture will
remain adequate across South Texas that daytime heating may result
in additional convection. Moisture levels will be most favorable
across the western zones on Saturday as PW values approach 2 inches.
Pops will remain in the 20 to 40 percent on Saturday with highest
chances over the Rio Grande Plains.  Moisture decreases slightly on
Sunday but still sufficient to warrant 20 and 30 pops. A slow moving
upper level trough across the Desert Southwest will slide eastward
during the early to middle part of next week. Upper system will
still be to the west of the area by Wednesday. Several impulses will
approach area during the Monday through Wednesday time frame. This
will result in daily chances of showers and thunderstorms across
South Texas. Pops were capped at 50 percent for the Tuesday and
Wednesday, but may need to be raised in later forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  89  79  90  78  /  40  40  20  20  10
Victoria          77  85  77  89  76  /  50  60  40  30  10
Laredo            77  96  77  98  77  /  50  20  20  40  30
Alice             78  92  77  93  76  /  40  40  20  30  10
Rockport          79  86  80  88  79  /  40  50  20  20  10
Cotulla           75  95  75  95  75  /  50  20  20  30  30
Kingsville        79  91  78  92  78  /  40  40  20  20  10
Navy Corpus       80  87  80  88  79  /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
     Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port OConnor.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 260550 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1250 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.AVIATION...Diminishing SHRAs as of writing, with -RA possible for
the next few hours. SHRAs look to be struggling to develop west
of LRD especially with the loss of heating, but may see some
redevelopment west of the Rio Grande late tonight toward daybreak.
CIGs are transitioning to MVFR overnight, hanging around 1500-2500
FT. Gradual lifting is expected through midday, with VFR by or
around 18Z with SCT-BKN skies. With additional heating,
redevelopment of SHRAs/TSRAs possible by the afternoon continuing
through early evening, with the exception at LRD, where rain
chances continue through the end of the 06Z TAF period. A return
of MVFR CIGs once more tonight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 939 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...Lowered rain chances over most areas, with the best
chances of precipitation probably over the southern areas where
instability is best and CIN is weakest. 4 KM models have shown
significant differences, so confidence in these models are not
very high at this time. Thus, am basing forecast on forecast
basics (more or less), that being we may see some showers and
possible thunder over the southern areas where there appears to be
some weak diffluence (still hard to break the cap), the lesser
chances northeast. Other than that, most other parameters appear
to be doing OK for the greater part of the forecast. Thus, only
made a few other cosmetic changes. to the first period. Left rest
of forecast unchanged at this time, as looks like the overall
forecast trend for convection on Thursday appears reasonable.

MARINE...Continuing to monitor the winds, which could get close
to SCEC later tonight. Will take a closer look just before
issuance, but may need to go SCEC at least for the Gulf of Mexico
as observed winds are getting close and forecast winds are going
to SCEC values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  89  78  88  78  /  40  40  20  20  10
Victoria          75  85  74  86  74  /  40  60  40  20  10
Laredo            76  95  76  94  76  /  40  20  20  30  20
Alice             77  91  75  90  76  /  40  40  20  20  20
Rockport          78  87  79  86  78  /  40  40  20  20  10
Cotulla           75  94  73  93  75  /  50  20  20  40  20
Kingsville        78  91  77  90  77  /  40  40  20  20  10
Navy Corpus       78  87  79  87  79  /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 260000 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
700 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...CIN is lessening but should be coming back by mid
evening. This may be enough to bring a strong storm to KLRD
terminal before 04Z (have in tempo). Otherwise, am expecting
storms to weaken as they move east into South Texas overnight,
with mainly elevated/nimbo-stratus type of thunder during the
evening hours/overnight. Feel somewhat confident that some thunder
will get to KALI by 06Z (nothing too strong...have tempo for
terminal), then farther east becomes more uncertain as storms move
even farther away from best lift, moisture and instability. Still
will have some tempos at KCRP and KVCT (may just be showers but
could not rule out thunder). Since rainfall is within 9 hour
timeline (no PROB30), will go with tempo thunder at both KCRP and
KVCT. Could have some remnant rains at KLRD and KALI between 08Z-
11Z (ending west to east). Chance for convection again Thursday
afternoon after 20Z...but for now will only go with VCTS.
Otherwise, am expecting MVFR conditions to develop even outside
of convection eastern terminals by 03Z and KLRD after 06Z. Will
forecast VFR after 16Z all terminals. Weakening SE winds tonight
and then South on Thursday morning becoming SE in the afternoon
with a few gusts as surface pressure gradient tightens and
approaching upper system helps increase winds.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 425 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night)...Uncertainty still
lies in the short term forecast with regard to the exact development
of convection over the next 24 to 36 hours. Upper level low
positioned over southern CA and the Baja Peninsula will slowly
track further east over the desert southwest/Four Corners region.
Several impulses ejecting from this low will cross the region
overnight through Thursday night. Morning sounding from DRT showed
massive capping over the region, but very steep EML lapse rates.
Special 18Z sounding again from DRT showed cap still holding on
over this region. That said, capping may hold and inhibit storms.
Further west of the Rio Grande over Mexico, instability appears
greater though, and starting to see convection forming over the
mountains west of the CWA with strengthening shortwave impulse
aloft. Convection that does make push into the region would have
the potential to produce hail and strong winds with such steep
lapse rates and around 35 to 40 kts 0-6km shear. Hi-res models
continue to indicate an MCS developing over the Mexican border and
pushing east to northeast overnight across the region. There are
still some uncertainty though as to whether or not this
development will make it into South Texas and/or how much it will
weaken as it move across the region.

Overnight convection lingering into mid tomorrow morning will be possible.
However, another round of storms developing and pushing across the
CWA will be possible tomorrow afternoon and continuing into
Thursday night. Potential for strong to severe storms still exists
(SPC has placed Slight Risk to the northwest of the region, with
most of South Texas in a Marginal Risk), with the primary threats
again being hail and strong winds.

In addition to the strong to severe storms threat, potentially
heavy rainfall will be an issue. PWAT values near to slightly
above 2 inches (+2SD) are progged across the region through
Thursday into Thursday night. If training or slow moving storms
were to develop, localized flooding may become an issue,
especially across areas that have received an abundant amount of
rain already this month. QPF amounts through Friday are expected
to be 1-2 inches, with locally higher amounts of 4 inches
possible.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Unsettled weather pattern for South Texas continues with continued
deep layer southerly flow in place. The stronger shortwave forecast
to move through the region on Thursday should be ejecting to our
north-northeast by early Friday morning with another shortwave right
on its tails. Highest POPs Friday are confirmed mostly to the
Northern Brush Country east into Victoria Crossroads and then taper
off gradually through Saturday. Some of the storms on Friday may
become severe in nature with ample instability and lots of dynamics
to work with. Upper level subtropical jet will place its left exit
region overhead while the polar jet to our north has us in its right
entrance region. This adds to stronger upper level lift adding to
the potential for the strong/severe thunderstorm potential. On top
of that with excessive PWATs values these storms may cause localized
flash flooding, though the best chances for this all may be just a
tad to our north.

Saturday and Sunday we should dry out some as the PWATs are forecast
to drop towards 1.5 inches, at least across the east, but we reload
and are running near 2 inches by early next week. Capping inversion
does not appear to as strong as we have seen the past several days
so any embedded impulse within the southerly flow aloft would be
enough to trigger scattered convection. We carry chance POPs through
much of the period, better west than east, to account for the lack
of capping, some cooler mid-level temperatures with troughing nearby
and several shortwaves moving through the mean flow.

Marine...Moderate to strong onshore Friday allows for SCA conditions
as seas continue to remain elevated around 6 feet nearshore and
around 8 feet farther offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  87  78  89  78  /  40  50  40  40  20
Victoria          76  84  75  85  74  /  30  50  40  60  40
Laredo            77  93  76  95  76  /  50  40  40  20  20
Alice             77  89  77  91  75  /  50  50  40  40  20
Rockport          79  85  78  87  79  /  30  40  40  40  20
Cotulla           76  91  75  94  73  /  50  50  50  20  20
Kingsville        78  90  78  91  77  /  40  50  40  40  20
Navy Corpus       79  85  78  87  79  /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 252125
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
425 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night)...Uncertainty still
lies in the short term forecast with regard to the exact development
of convection over the next 24 to 36 hours. Upper level low
positioned over southern CA and the Baja Peninsula will slowly
track further east over the desert southwest/Four Corners region.
Several impulses ejecting from this low will cross the region
overnight through Thursday night. Morning sounding from DRT showed
massive capping over the region, but very steep EML lapse rates.
Special 18Z sounding again from DRT showed cap still holding on
over this region. That said, capping may hold and inhibit storms.
Further west of the Rio Grande over Mexico, instability appears
greater though, and starting to see convection forming over the
mountains west of the CWA with strengthening shortwave impulse
aloft. Convection that does make push into the region would have
the potential to produce hail and strong winds with such steep
lapse rates and around 35 to 40 kts 0-6km shear. Hi-res models
continue to indicate an MCS developing over the Mexican border and
pushing east to northeast overnight across the region. There are
still some uncertainty though as to whether or not this
development will make it into South Texas and/or how much it will
weaken as it move across the region.

Overnight convection lingering into mid tomorrow morning will be possible.
However, another round of storms developing and pushing across the
CWA will be possible tomorrow afternoon and continuing into
Thursday night. Potential for strong to severe storms still exists
(SPC has placed Slight Risk to the northwest of the region, with
most of South Texas in a Marginal Risk), with the primary threats
again being hail and strong winds.

In addition to the strong to severe storms threat, potentially
heavy rainfall will be an issue. PWAT values near to slightly
above 2 inches (+2SD) are progged across the region through
Thursday into Thursday night. If training or slow moving storms
were to develop, localized flooding may become an issue,
especially across areas that have received an abundant amount of
rain already this month. QPF amounts through Friday are expected
to be 1-2 inches, with locally higher amounts of 4 inches
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Unsettled weather pattern for South Texas continues with continued
deep layer southerly flow in place. The stronger shortwave forecast
to move through the region on Thursday should be ejecting to our
north-northeast by early Friday morning with another shortwave right
on its tails. Highest POPs Friday are confirmed mostly to the
Northern Brush Country east into Victoria Crossroads and then taper
off gradually through Saturday. Some of the storms on Friday may
become severe in nature with ample instability and lots of dynamics
to work with. Upper level subtropical jet will place its left exit
region overhead while the polar jet to our north has us in its right
entrance region. This adds to stronger upper level lift adding to
the potential for the strong/severe thunderstorm potential. On top
of that with excessive PWATs values these storms may cause localized
flash flooding, though the best chances for this all may be just a
tad to our north.

Saturday and Sunday we should dry out some as the PWATs are forecast
to drop towards 1.5 inches, at least across the east, but we reload
and are running near 2 inches by early next week. Capping inversion
does not appear to as strong as we have seen the past several days
so any embedded impulse within the southerly flow aloft would be
enough to trigger scattered convection. We carry chance POPs through
much of the period, better west than east, to account for the lack
of capping, some cooler mid-level temperatures with troughing nearby
and several shortwaves moving through the mean flow.

Marine...Moderate to strong onshore Friday allows for SCA conditions
as seas continue to remain elevated around 6 feet nearshore and
around 8 feet farther offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  87  78  89  78  /  40  50  40  40  20
Victoria          76  84  75  85  74  /  30  50  40  60  40
Laredo            77  93  76  95  76  /  50  40  40  20  20
Alice             77  89  77  91  75  /  50  50  40  40  20
Rockport          79  85  78  87  79  /  30  40  40  40  20
Cotulla           76  91  75  94  73  /  50  50  50  20  20
Kingsville        78  90  78  91  77  /  40  50  40  40  20
Navy Corpus       79  85  78  87  79  /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
GH/77...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 251000 CCA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
500 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...Positioned underneath a
midlevel ridge and 20C-22C H85 cap, should see a relatively quiet
day through the early afternoon. Tightening pressure gradient and
moisture convergence along the seabreeze may allow for enough
forcing for a few isolated showers and possible thunderstorms
mainly across the western Brush Country this late afternoon and
early evening.

Things change further tonight as the ridge begins to be pushed
farther south as the next midlevel trough/low currently over
southern California swings east, nudging into the Four-Corners
region late tonight. Embedded s/w impulses south of the main low
enter Texas along the Rio Grande south of the Big Bend. This should
help fire off convection along the Sierra Madre, with storm flow
pushing these storms across the border late tonight. Models
soundings show a gradual waning of the cap, but elevated convection
working off of available midlevel potential energy and steep lapse
rates, along with an inverted-v profile, may be able to erase the
cap a bit quicker. That said, SPC has much of the western half of
the CWA under Marginal Risk, with hail and very strong damaging
winds being the biggest threats. Forcing remains best farther
north in proximity of the s/w and diffluent flow of the upper jet
stream, but the strong to severe thunderstorm development remains
for the western areas of S.TX.

Marginal risk shifts farther east Thursday as the main line shifts
east as well, with chance to likely pops covering much of S.TX,
continuing the threat of hail and strong winds. A moderate storm
flow should keep storms from lingering too long in one place, but
should storms train over each other, localized flooding may be
possible.

Outside rain chances, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in place
for the Southern Coastal Bend from lingering long period swells
combined with locations entering high tide this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...The mid to upper level
low over southern Colorado/northern New Mexico Thursday evening will
move northeast into the high plains of western Kansas/Nebraska on
Friday with the trough extending south of the low moving across
central Texas. Southerly low level flow will increase to 30-40 knots
Thursday night into Friday before decreasing Friday night. High
moisture will be in place with precipitable water values ranging
from 1.8 to slightly above 2 inches through Friday night. Expect air
mass to recover from earlier convection on Thursday for adequate
instability over the Brush Country into the higher terrain of
northeast Mexico. Models depict a short wave trough in the southwest
flow aloft moving out of Mexico into central Texas by Friday morning.
Convection over northeast Mexico will move east across the region
Thursday night. As the upper low moves into the central plains...a
coupled upper jet structure will exist over north and central Texas
as 25H 90 knot jet moves through Oklahoma and subtropical jet moves
out of Mexico into south Texas. Expecting an organized mesoscale
convective system to form over north-central Texas by Friday
morning. This MCS should move to the east-southeast on Friday and
affect the Victoria Crossroads. SPC has northeast counties in a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Some uncertainty on
whether early morning convection over south Texas will disturb the
southerly low level inflow to complex. The upper level short wave
trough will be moving northeast of the area Friday night. But the
left exit region of upper jet moving out of Mexico will keep
favorable upper level divergence over south-central Texas. Another
slow moving MCS could affect Victoria Crossroads Friday night.

A short wave ridge will move over the region on Saturday but high
moisture/instability will keep a chance of storms possible over the
western Brush Country. Active weather pattern will continue into
next week as another short wave trough moves into the Desert
Southwest and another upper level jet moves across Mexico into south
Texas. Moisture axis will remain over the western counties where
chance POPs will continue for Sunday and Monday. The short wave
trough will move into the southern Rockies/northern Mexico by
Tuesday. Another weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft will give
a chance of storms for all of south Texas Tuesday.

.MARINE (Thursday night through Friday night)...With the low level
flow increasing to 30-40 knots early in the period...expect winds
will increase to SCA levels over the coastal waters Thursday night
into Friday. Seas will be slow to diminish with seas of 7 feet
lingering into Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  86  78  89  77  /  40  50  40  40  20
Victoria          76  85  75  86  75  /  30  50  50  60  40
Laredo            77  94  76  98  77  /  50  30  40  20  20
Alice             77  89  76  92  76  /  50  50  40  40  20
Rockport          79  84  79  85  78  /  30  40  40  40  20
Cotulla           76  91  74  95  74  /  50  50  50  20  20
Kingsville        78  89  77  91  77  /  40  50  40  40  20
Navy Corpus       79  84  79  87  79  /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CDT today For the following
     zones: Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...None.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 250558 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1258 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...A mixture of MVFR/IFR CIGS overnight. Slowed timing
for lowering CIGs as a weak S-LY LLJ begins to develop, mainly
across the western sites of CRP-ALI-LRD. Gradual lifting of CIGS
through 18Z, with general VFR developing around and after 18Z.
Gusty conditions are expected to develop during the afternoon with
gusts out of the SE 20-30 KT, with the strongest winds along the
coastal bend area toward CRP. Isolated/scattered SHRAs/TSRAs
possible late in the afternoon at LRD along the seabreeze, with a
brief quiet window before additional SHRAs/TSRAs develop across
Mexico and move east through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  87  78  87  77  /  30  40  40  50  20
Victoria          75  86  75  84  75  /  30  60  40  60  30
Laredo            77  93  76  97  77  /  60  40  50  20  20
Alice             77  88  76  91  76  /  30  50  40  50  20
Rockport          78  85  79  84  78  /  20  40  40  40  20
Cotulla           75  89  74  94  74  /  60  50  50  20  20
Kingsville        77  89  77  90  77  /  30  40  40  50  20
Navy Corpus       79  85  79  84  79  /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to noon CDT today
     For the following zones: Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...None.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 241802
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
102 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

We have cancelled the coastal flood advisory for Nueces and
Kleberg counties as tide levels have dropped below 2 feet mean sea
level. Tidal departures will remain elevated with the stronger
onshore flow through the next couple of high tide cycles, but they
should remain below minor thresholds. We will continue to watch
the departures.

18Z aviation discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Today...Another mix of VFR/MVFR conditions across the region.
Should start to see some better lifting of the cigs to mostly a
VFR deck at our terminals, though KVCT is already VFR. This looks
to last a handful of hours before any scattering of the deck fills
back in and cigs lower again by later this evening. Gusty
southeast winds are expected, upwards of 25 knots. Medium
confidence on ceiling timing.

Tonight...MVFR/IFR. Lower cig conditions will prevail across the
region tonight with better chances for IFR at KALI and KVCT with
some light fog as winds subside a bit. Southeast winds less than 10
knots. Medium to high confidence.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Expecting a repeat of conditions areawide
tomorrow as IFR lifts to a predominant MVFR deck that may lift
higher towards the late afternoon into VFR. Still expecting a dry
forecast through much of the day. Gusty southeast winds expected
again. Medium to high confidence.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  90  77  88  79  /  10  10  20  40  30
Victoria          76  89  76  86  77  /  10  10  20  50  30
Laredo            78  98  78  96  77  /  10  20  40  40  40
Alice             77  93  77  90  78  /  10  10  20  50  40
Rockport          80  87  78  85  80  /  10  10  20  40  30
Cotulla           77  95  76  92  75  /  10  20  50  50  40
Kingsville        78  92  77  90  79  /  10  10  20  40  30
Navy Corpus       79  89  79  85  80  /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 241148 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
648 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Tides continue to increase along the coast south of
Port Aransas. Tides are a little above 1 foot above expected
levels this morning with water around 2 feet MSL at Bob Hall Pier.
Will likely be slightly above 2 feet around time of high tide
around 745 AM this morning. Issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for
coast south of Port Aransas until 18z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 628 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...See aviation section for 12z TAFs.

AVIATION...MVFR ceilings were prevalent across most of South
Texas early this morning with an area of LIFR ceilings from
Beeville to near Alice along with MVFR vsbys in fog. Strong mid
level inversion will keep moisture/clouds trapped beneath it
similar to yesterday. Ceilings will lift to around 2500 feet by
mid morning but hold through mid afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected from late afternoon through early evening with ceilings
around 5 kft. MVFR ceilings will return to the coastal plains by
04-06z Wednesday and reach LRD area by 09z. Ceilings could fall
to IFR for coastal terminals with MVFR vsbys in fog 09-10z Wed.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 407 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...The mid to upper level
ridge over northern Mexico will build into south Texas today
and translate slowly east through the area on Wednesday. The
strong inversion evident on 00z CRP sounding will hold or
strengthen slightly with 70H temperatures around 14 degrees C.
High moisture will continue beneath the cap with clouds
persisting both days. With high humidity and warmer temperatures
expected for the western Brush Country...afternoon heat index
values could range from 105 to 109 degrees. With the strength
of the cap extending into higher terrain...not expecting any
convective development there this evening that could affect the
Rio Grande region. Strength of low level flow should inhibit
fog formation over the inland coastal plains late tonight.
The deeper low level moisture axis will move west into the
Brush Country for Wednesday. As the upper low over central
California early this morning moves east into the desert
southwest Wednesday afternoon...impulses in the southwest
flow aloft will move across Mexico and approach the Rio
Grande Wednesday afternoon. Better rain chances will be beyond
this period but could see isolated thunderstorms form over the
western Brush Country Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE (Today through Wednesday)...low pressure in west Texas
will maintain a southerly low level flow of 20-30 knots across
south Texas and the nearby coastal waters through Wednesday.
A moderate onshore flow will persist through the period with
SCEC conditions for all marine areas except the northern bays.

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Monday)...

Lead short wave will rotate around the southwest CONUS upper low and
trigger deep convection over the Sierra Madre Wed evening which will
likely overspread parts of our western counties overnight.  Too
early to tell whether this will evolve as an MCS or just a few
clusters so will hold onto the prev fcst which tapers pops from 50
far west to 20 closer to the coast.

Convective trends Wed Night will obviously have an impact on how
Thursday plays out storm wise as an early outflow boundary would
dramatically shift convective focus. Impossible to figure out how
the complex mesoscale process will work out at this juncture so will
focus higher pops (60 pct) in the less capped north-central tapering
to lower chances toward the coast and far west.  Stronger short wave
associated with a negative tilt upper sys over the plains will drive
through the area on Friday.  Still see a window for potential MCS
with strong wind threat - esply over the far north and east where
I`ve carried the highest pops. Drying/capping will overspread the
area late in the day cutting the precip off.  Blended guidance temps
looked fine. SCA conditions still look psbl Thurs and esply Friday
as onshore flow/seas peak in response to strongest p-gradient.

Deep ridging builds through the weekend into early next week but
plentiful mstr should yield isolated diurnal convection.  Will
maintain slight chance pops through the period.  Mex temperatures
looked good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  90  77  88  79  /  10  10  20  40  30
Victoria          76  89  76  86  77  /  10  10  20  50  30
Laredo            78  98  78  96  77  /  10  20  40  40  40
Alice             77  93  77  90  78  /  10  10  20  50  40
Rockport          80  87  78  85  80  /  10  10  20  40  30
Cotulla           77  95  76  92  75  /  10  20  50  50  40
Kingsville        78  92  77  90  79  /  10  10  20  40  30
Navy Corpus       79  89  79  85  80  /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon For the
     following zones: Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 241128 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
628 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...See aviation section for 12z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR ceilings were prevalent across most of South
Texas early this morning with an area of LIFR ceilings from
Beeville to near Alice along with MVFR vsbys in fog. Strong mid
level inversion will keep moisture/clouds trapped beneath it
similar to yesterday. Ceilings will lift to around 2500 feet by
mid morning but hold through mid afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected from late afternoon through early evening with ceilings
around 5 kft. MVFR ceilings will return to the coastal plains by
04-06z Wednesday and reach LRD area by 09z. Ceilings could fall
to IFR for coastal terminals with MVFR vsbys in fog 09-10z Wed.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 407 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...The mid to upper level
ridge over northern Mexico will build into south Texas today
and translate slowly east through the area on Wednesday. The
strong inversion evident on 00z CRP sounding will hold or
strengthen slightly with 70H temperatures around 14 degrees C.
High moisture will continue beneath the cap with clouds
persisting both days. With high humidity and warmer temperatures
expected for the western Brush Country...afternoon heat index
values could range from 105 to 109 degrees. With the strength
of the cap extending into higher terrain...not expecting any
convective development there this evening that could affect the
Rio Grande region. Strength of low level flow should inhibit
fog formation over the inland coastal plains late tonight.
The deeper low level moisture axis will move west into the
Brush Country for Wednesday. As the upper low over central
California early this morning moves east into the desert
southwest Wednesday afternoon...impulses in the southwest
flow aloft will move across Mexico and approach the Rio
Grande Wednesday afternoon. Better rain chances will be beyond
this period but could see isolated thunderstorms form over the
western Brush Country Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE (Today through Wednesday)...low pressure in west Texas
will maintain a southerly low level flow of 20-30 knots across
south Texas and the nearby coastal waters through Wednesday.
A moderate onshore flow will persist through the period with
SCEC conditions for all marine areas except the northern bays.

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Monday)...

Lead short wave will rotate around the southwest CONUS upper low and
trigger deep convection over the Sierra Madre Wed evening which will
likely overspread parts of our western counties overnight.  Too
early to tell whether this will evolve as an MCS or just a few
clusters so will hold onto the prev fcst which tapers pops from 50
far west to 20 closer to the coast.

Convective trends Wed Night will obviously have an impact on how
Thursday plays out storm wise as an early outflow boundary would
dramatically shift convective focus. Impossible to figure out how
the complex mesoscale process will work out at this juncture so will
focus higher pops (60 pct) in the less capped north-central tapering
to lower chances toward the coast and far west.  Stronger short wave
associated with a negative tilt upper sys over the plains will drive
through the area on Friday.  Still see a window for potential MCS
with strong wind threat - esply over the far north and east where
I`ve carried the highest pops. Drying/capping will overspread the
area late in the day cutting the precip off.  Blended guidance temps
looked fine. SCA conditions still look psbl Thurs and esply Friday
as onshore flow/seas peak in response to strongest p-gradient.

Deep ridging builds through the weekend into early next week but
plentiful mstr should yield isolated diurnal convection.  Will
maintain slight chance pops through the period.  Mex temperatures
looked good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  90  77  88  79  /  10  10  20  40  30
Victoria          76  89  76  86  77  /  10  10  20  50  30
Laredo            78  98  78  96  77  /  10  20  40  40  40
Alice             77  93  77  90  78  /  10  10  20  50  40
Rockport          80  87  78  85  80  /  10  10  20  40  30
Cotulla           77  95  76  92  75  /  10  20  50  50  40
Kingsville        78  92  77  90  79  /  10  10  20  40  30
Navy Corpus       79  89  79  85  80  /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 240549 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1249 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...see aviation section for 06z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Cirrus canopy from strong convection west of the Rio
Grande covers much of South Texas early this morning. Area of
convection showing a more eastward component to movement as
the storms weakened. Lightning strikes in the downstream anvil
area could affect LRD area for another hour or two but convection
is expected to keep a diminishing trend. MVFR ceilings were
occurring over the inland coastal plains to the northern Coastal
Bend. Expect MVFR ceiling will become prevalent by 08-09z across
most of the area. MVFR vsbys along with IFR ceilings will be
possible at ALI/VCT from 09-13z. Strong mid level inversion will
keep moisture/clouds trapped beneath it similar to yesterday.
Ceilings will lift to around 2500 feet by mid morning but hold
through mid afternoon. VFR conditions are expected from late
afternoon through early evening. MVFR ceilings will return to the
coastal plains by 03-04z Wednesday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1109 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...Adjusted forecast to add generally less than 20 POPs
for the Western CWA until 09z Tuesday as compromise between upper
jet dynamics which might maintain convection west of the Rio
Grande which could enter the Western CWA...and increasing CIN
values (most recent LAPS analysis depicts values above 200 J/kg
over Webb County) which is expected to preclude surface-based
convection. From another prespective with the same low POP
conclusion...only elevated convection seems possible (owing to
upper forcing yet high CIN) yet moisture limited aloft (LAPS
analysis sounding over LRD.)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  89  77  88  78  /  10  10  20  40  30
Victoria          77  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  20  50  30
Laredo            78  98  78  98  76  /  10  20  40  40  50
Alice             78  92  77  90  77  /  10  10  20  50  50
Rockport          79  85  78  85  79  /  10  10  20  40  30
Cotulla           77  94  76  92  74  /  10  20  50  50  50
Kingsville        78  92  77  90  78  /  10  10  20  40  30
Navy Corpus       79  86  79  85  79  /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





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