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000
FXUS64 KCRP 220546
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...WITH TEMPO LIFR AT ALI.
EXPECT A MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CRP...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM VCT AND ALI
DURING THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR VC SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR
ALL SITES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MOST SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WX/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING`S FCST IS A BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS S
TX AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO...IS PROGD TO
REACH THE W CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND TRACK EAST THROUGH
FRI MORNING. THERE IS ALSO THE WEAK FRONTAL BDRY THAT IS PROGD TO
REMAINED DRAPED ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT/FRI MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING/WASHING OUT FRIDAY. THESE FEATURES WOULD NORMALLY BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SCT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MODELS PROG CIN VALUES TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG WITH LOW CAPE
VALUES...OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE THINK THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
MEX WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT
WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AND ELEVATED. A SECONDARY AREA OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE BDRY AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY. THE GFS THEN DEEPENS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVR S TX ON FRIDAY...MAINTAINING RAIN CHCS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN
STRENGTH OF OVERNIGHT CAP...TIMING AND ACTUAL POSITION OF SHORT
WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD TX. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT HAVE A CHANCE AT LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS BEFORE
MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ECMWF WAS THE ONLY
MODEL SUITE TO PROPERLY HANDLE THIS MORNING/S MCS DOWN THE RIO
GRANDE. EVEN TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED HI RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS MORNING/S EVENT. IN TURN THIS LEADS
TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS OF WRITING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NEAR MATHIS TO SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY WANES. BRUSH COUNTRY REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION AND THUS AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP THERE THIS EVENING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM OLD MX
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HANDLING OF H5
S/W TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH. 12Z ECMWF ADVECTS A S/W TROUGH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA /ASIDE FROM
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/. THE GFS ON THE
OTHERHAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND INITIATES DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS COAHUILA MX AND INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL...HAVE UNDERCUT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE 30/40 POPS FROM EAST TO
WEST. OTHER THAN PRECIP POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. ASSUMING THAT THERE IS NOT ANOTHER MCS TRAVERSING THE AREA
IN THE MORNING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD
COVER/RAIN IMPACTING MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH 30 POPS IN THE MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING TO ACROSS THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER MCS TO OUR NW IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOCUS AGAIN WOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN PARTS ON THE
REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DEEP LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  74  85  77  84  /  40  20  30  40  70
VICTORIA          84  73  84  75  82  /  40  10  40  40  70
LAREDO            88  74  89  74  89  /  30  20  30  60  50
ALICE             85  73  88  77  87  /  40  20  40  50  70
ROCKPORT          85  76  85  78  84  /  40  20  30  40  60
COTULLA           87  73  86  73  86  /  40  20  50  60  60
KINGSVILLE        86  74  87  77  86  /  40  10  30  40  60
NAVY CORPUS       84  76  84  78  83  /  40  20  30  40  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 220546
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...WITH TEMPO LIFR AT ALI.
EXPECT A MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CRP...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM VCT AND ALI
DURING THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR VC SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR
ALL SITES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MOST SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WX/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING`S FCST IS A BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS S
TX AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO...IS PROGD TO
REACH THE W CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND TRACK EAST THROUGH
FRI MORNING. THERE IS ALSO THE WEAK FRONTAL BDRY THAT IS PROGD TO
REMAINED DRAPED ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT/FRI MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING/WASHING OUT FRIDAY. THESE FEATURES WOULD NORMALLY BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SCT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MODELS PROG CIN VALUES TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG WITH LOW CAPE
VALUES...OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE THINK THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
MEX WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT
WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AND ELEVATED. A SECONDARY AREA OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE BDRY AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY. THE GFS THEN DEEPENS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVR S TX ON FRIDAY...MAINTAINING RAIN CHCS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN
STRENGTH OF OVERNIGHT CAP...TIMING AND ACTUAL POSITION OF SHORT
WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD TX. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT HAVE A CHANCE AT LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS BEFORE
MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ECMWF WAS THE ONLY
MODEL SUITE TO PROPERLY HANDLE THIS MORNING/S MCS DOWN THE RIO
GRANDE. EVEN TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED HI RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS MORNING/S EVENT. IN TURN THIS LEADS
TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS OF WRITING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NEAR MATHIS TO SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY WANES. BRUSH COUNTRY REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION AND THUS AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP THERE THIS EVENING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM OLD MX
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HANDLING OF H5
S/W TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH. 12Z ECMWF ADVECTS A S/W TROUGH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA /ASIDE FROM
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/. THE GFS ON THE
OTHERHAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND INITIATES DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS COAHUILA MX AND INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL...HAVE UNDERCUT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE 30/40 POPS FROM EAST TO
WEST. OTHER THAN PRECIP POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. ASSUMING THAT THERE IS NOT ANOTHER MCS TRAVERSING THE AREA
IN THE MORNING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD
COVER/RAIN IMPACTING MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH 30 POPS IN THE MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING TO ACROSS THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER MCS TO OUR NW IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOCUS AGAIN WOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN PARTS ON THE
REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DEEP LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  74  85  77  84  /  40  20  30  40  70
VICTORIA          84  73  84  75  82  /  40  10  40  40  70
LAREDO            88  74  89  74  89  /  30  20  30  60  50
ALICE             85  73  88  77  87  /  40  20  40  50  70
ROCKPORT          85  76  85  78  84  /  40  20  30  40  60
COTULLA           87  73  86  73  86  /  40  20  50  60  60
KINGSVILLE        86  74  87  77  86  /  40  10  30  40  60
NAVY CORPUS       84  76  84  78  83  /  40  20  30  40  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 220546
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...WITH TEMPO LIFR AT ALI.
EXPECT A MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CRP...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM VCT AND ALI
DURING THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR VC SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR
ALL SITES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MOST SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WX/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING`S FCST IS A BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS S
TX AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO...IS PROGD TO
REACH THE W CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND TRACK EAST THROUGH
FRI MORNING. THERE IS ALSO THE WEAK FRONTAL BDRY THAT IS PROGD TO
REMAINED DRAPED ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT/FRI MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING/WASHING OUT FRIDAY. THESE FEATURES WOULD NORMALLY BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SCT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MODELS PROG CIN VALUES TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG WITH LOW CAPE
VALUES...OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE THINK THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
MEX WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT
WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AND ELEVATED. A SECONDARY AREA OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE BDRY AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY. THE GFS THEN DEEPENS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVR S TX ON FRIDAY...MAINTAINING RAIN CHCS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN
STRENGTH OF OVERNIGHT CAP...TIMING AND ACTUAL POSITION OF SHORT
WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD TX. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT HAVE A CHANCE AT LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS BEFORE
MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ECMWF WAS THE ONLY
MODEL SUITE TO PROPERLY HANDLE THIS MORNING/S MCS DOWN THE RIO
GRANDE. EVEN TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED HI RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS MORNING/S EVENT. IN TURN THIS LEADS
TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS OF WRITING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NEAR MATHIS TO SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY WANES. BRUSH COUNTRY REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION AND THUS AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP THERE THIS EVENING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM OLD MX
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HANDLING OF H5
S/W TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH. 12Z ECMWF ADVECTS A S/W TROUGH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA /ASIDE FROM
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/. THE GFS ON THE
OTHERHAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND INITIATES DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS COAHUILA MX AND INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL...HAVE UNDERCUT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE 30/40 POPS FROM EAST TO
WEST. OTHER THAN PRECIP POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. ASSUMING THAT THERE IS NOT ANOTHER MCS TRAVERSING THE AREA
IN THE MORNING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD
COVER/RAIN IMPACTING MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH 30 POPS IN THE MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING TO ACROSS THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER MCS TO OUR NW IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOCUS AGAIN WOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN PARTS ON THE
REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DEEP LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  74  85  77  84  /  40  20  30  40  70
VICTORIA          84  73  84  75  82  /  40  10  40  40  70
LAREDO            88  74  89  74  89  /  30  20  30  60  50
ALICE             85  73  88  77  87  /  40  20  40  50  70
ROCKPORT          85  76  85  78  84  /  40  20  30  40  60
COTULLA           87  73  86  73  86  /  40  20  50  60  60
KINGSVILLE        86  74  87  77  86  /  40  10  30  40  60
NAVY CORPUS       84  76  84  78  83  /  40  20  30  40  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 220248
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
948 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WX/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING`S FCST IS A BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS S
TX AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO...IS PROGD TO
REACH THE W CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND TRACK EAST THROUGH
FRI MORNING. THERE IS ALSO THE WEAK FRONTAL BDRY THAT IS PROGD TO
REMAINED DRAPED ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT/FRI MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING/WASHING OUT FRIDAY. THESE FEATURES WOULD NORMALLY BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SCT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MODELS PROG CIN VALUES TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG WITH LOW CAPE
VALUES...OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE THINK THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
MEX WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT
WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AND ELEVATED. A SECONDARY AREA OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE BDRY AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY. THE GFS THEN DEEPENS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVR S TX ON FRIDAY...MAINTAINING RAIN CHCS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN
STRENGTH OF OVERNIGHT CAP...TIMING AND ACTUAL POSITION OF SHORT
WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD TX. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT HAVE A CHANCE AT LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS BEFORE
MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...A LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM S OF
KINGSVILLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TOWARD ROCKPORT...IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH 01Z. LRD...ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LULL THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BDRY...WHILE CONVECTION IN
MEXICO ALSO MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS THEN VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW. GENERALLY VFR CIGS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THEN LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DVLP
LEADING TO MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. IN AND AROUND
STORMS...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ECMWF WAS THE ONLY
MODEL SUITE TO PROPERLY HANDLE THIS MORNING/S MCS DOWN THE RIO
GRANDE. EVEN TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED HI RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS MORNING/S EVENT. IN TURN THIS LEADS
TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS OF WRITING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NEAR MATHIS TO SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY WANES. BRUSH COUNTRY REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION AND THUS AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP THERE THIS EVENING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM OLD MX
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HANDLING OF H5
S/W TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH. 12Z ECMWF ADVECTS A S/W TROUGH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA /ASIDE FROM
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/. THE GFS ON THE
OTHERHAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND INITIATES DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS COAHUILA MX AND INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL...HAVE UNDERCUT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE 30/40 POPS FROM EAST TO
WEST. OTHER THAN PRECIP POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. ASSUMING THAT THERE IS NOT ANOTHER MCS TRAVERSING THE AREA
IN THE MORNING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD
COVER/RAIN IMPACTING MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH 30 POPS IN THE MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING TO ACROSS THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER MCS TO OUR NW IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOCUS AGAIN WOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN PARTS ON THE
REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DEEP LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  84  74  85  77  /  30  40  20  30  40
VICTORIA          70  84  73  84  75  /  30  40  10  40  40
LAREDO            72  88  74  89  74  /  50  30  20  30  60
ALICE             71  85  73  88  77  /  30  40  20  40  50
ROCKPORT          74  85  76  85  78  /  30  40  20  30  40
COTULLA           70  87  73  86  73  /  50  40  20  50  60
KINGSVILLE        72  86  74  87  77  /  30  40  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       75  84  76  84  78  /  30  40  20  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 220248
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
948 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WX/POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING`S FCST IS A BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS S
TX AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO...IS PROGD TO
REACH THE W CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND TRACK EAST THROUGH
FRI MORNING. THERE IS ALSO THE WEAK FRONTAL BDRY THAT IS PROGD TO
REMAINED DRAPED ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT/FRI MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING/WASHING OUT FRIDAY. THESE FEATURES WOULD NORMALLY BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SCT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MODELS PROG CIN VALUES TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG WITH LOW CAPE
VALUES...OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE THINK THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
MEX WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT
WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AND ELEVATED. A SECONDARY AREA OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE BDRY AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY. THE GFS THEN DEEPENS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVR S TX ON FRIDAY...MAINTAINING RAIN CHCS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN
STRENGTH OF OVERNIGHT CAP...TIMING AND ACTUAL POSITION OF SHORT
WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD TX. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT HAVE A CHANCE AT LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS BEFORE
MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...A LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM S OF
KINGSVILLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TOWARD ROCKPORT...IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH 01Z. LRD...ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LULL THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BDRY...WHILE CONVECTION IN
MEXICO ALSO MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS THEN VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW. GENERALLY VFR CIGS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THEN LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DVLP
LEADING TO MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. IN AND AROUND
STORMS...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ECMWF WAS THE ONLY
MODEL SUITE TO PROPERLY HANDLE THIS MORNING/S MCS DOWN THE RIO
GRANDE. EVEN TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED HI RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS MORNING/S EVENT. IN TURN THIS LEADS
TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS OF WRITING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NEAR MATHIS TO SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY WANES. BRUSH COUNTRY REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION AND THUS AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP THERE THIS EVENING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM OLD MX
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HANDLING OF H5
S/W TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH. 12Z ECMWF ADVECTS A S/W TROUGH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA /ASIDE FROM
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/. THE GFS ON THE
OTHERHAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND INITIATES DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS COAHUILA MX AND INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL...HAVE UNDERCUT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE 30/40 POPS FROM EAST TO
WEST. OTHER THAN PRECIP POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. ASSUMING THAT THERE IS NOT ANOTHER MCS TRAVERSING THE AREA
IN THE MORNING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD
COVER/RAIN IMPACTING MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH 30 POPS IN THE MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING TO ACROSS THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER MCS TO OUR NW IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOCUS AGAIN WOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN PARTS ON THE
REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DEEP LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  84  74  85  77  /  30  40  20  30  40
VICTORIA          70  84  73  84  75  /  30  40  10  40  40
LAREDO            72  88  74  89  74  /  50  30  20  30  60
ALICE             71  85  73  88  77  /  30  40  20  40  50
ROCKPORT          74  85  76  85  78  /  30  40  20  30  40
COTULLA           70  87  73  86  73  /  50  40  20  50  60
KINGSVILLE        72  86  74  87  77  /  30  40  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       75  84  76  84  78  /  30  40  20  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 212337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM S OF
KINGSVILLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TOWARD ROCKPORT...IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH 01Z. LRD...ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LULL THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BDRY...WHILE CONVECTION IN
MEXICO ALSO MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS THEN VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW. GENERALLY VFR CIGS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THEN LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DVLP
LEADING TO MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. IN AND AROUND
STORMS...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ECMWF WAS THE ONLY
MODEL SUITE TO PROPERLY HANDLE THIS MORNING/S MCS DOWN THE RIO
GRANDE. EVEN TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED HI RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS MORNING/S EVENT. IN TURN THIS LEADS
TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS OF WRITING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NEAR MATHIS TO SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY WANES. BRUSH COUNTRY REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION AND THUS AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP THERE THIS EVENING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM OLD MX
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HANDLING OF H5
S/W TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH. 12Z ECMWF ADVECTS A S/W TROUGH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA /ASIDE FROM
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/. THE GFS ON THE
OTHERHAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND INITIATES DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS COAHUILA MX AND INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL...HAVE UNDERCUT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE 30/40 POPS FROM EAST TO
WEST. OTHER THAN PRECIP POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. ASSUMING THAT THERE IS NOT ANOTHER MCS TRAVERSING THE AREA
IN THE MORNING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD
COVER/RAIN IMPACTING MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH 30 POPS IN THE MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING TO ACROSS THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER MCS TO OUR NW IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOCUS AGAIN WOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN PARTS ON THE
REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DEEP LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  84  74  85  77  /  30  40  20  30  40
VICTORIA          70  84  73  84  75  /  30  40  10  40  40
LAREDO            72  88  74  89  74  /  40  30  20  30  60
ALICE             71  85  73  88  77  /  30  40  20  40  50
ROCKPORT          74  85  76  85  78  /  30  40  20  30  40
COTULLA           70  87  73  86  73  /  40  40  20  50  60
KINGSVILLE        72  86  74  87  77  /  30  40  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       75  84  76  84  78  /  30  40  20  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 212337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM S OF
KINGSVILLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TOWARD ROCKPORT...IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH 01Z. LRD...ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LULL THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BDRY...WHILE CONVECTION IN
MEXICO ALSO MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS THEN VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW. GENERALLY VFR CIGS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THEN LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DVLP
LEADING TO MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. IN AND AROUND
STORMS...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ECMWF WAS THE ONLY
MODEL SUITE TO PROPERLY HANDLE THIS MORNING/S MCS DOWN THE RIO
GRANDE. EVEN TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED HI RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS MORNING/S EVENT. IN TURN THIS LEADS
TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS OF WRITING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NEAR MATHIS TO SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY WANES. BRUSH COUNTRY REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION AND THUS AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP THERE THIS EVENING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM OLD MX
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HANDLING OF H5
S/W TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH. 12Z ECMWF ADVECTS A S/W TROUGH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA /ASIDE FROM
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/. THE GFS ON THE
OTHERHAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND INITIATES DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS COAHUILA MX AND INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL...HAVE UNDERCUT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE 30/40 POPS FROM EAST TO
WEST. OTHER THAN PRECIP POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. ASSUMING THAT THERE IS NOT ANOTHER MCS TRAVERSING THE AREA
IN THE MORNING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD
COVER/RAIN IMPACTING MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH 30 POPS IN THE MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING TO ACROSS THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER MCS TO OUR NW IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOCUS AGAIN WOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN PARTS ON THE
REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DEEP LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  84  74  85  77  /  30  40  20  30  40
VICTORIA          70  84  73  84  75  /  30  40  10  40  40
LAREDO            72  88  74  89  74  /  40  30  20  30  60
ALICE             71  85  73  88  77  /  30  40  20  40  50
ROCKPORT          74  85  76  85  78  /  30  40  20  30  40
COTULLA           70  87  73  86  73  /  40  40  20  50  60
KINGSVILLE        72  86  74  87  77  /  30  40  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       75  84  76  84  78  /  30  40  20  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 212337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM S OF
KINGSVILLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TOWARD ROCKPORT...IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH 01Z. LRD...ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LULL THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BDRY...WHILE CONVECTION IN
MEXICO ALSO MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS THEN VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW. GENERALLY VFR CIGS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THEN LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DVLP
LEADING TO MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. IN AND AROUND
STORMS...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ECMWF WAS THE ONLY
MODEL SUITE TO PROPERLY HANDLE THIS MORNING/S MCS DOWN THE RIO
GRANDE. EVEN TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED HI RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS MORNING/S EVENT. IN TURN THIS LEADS
TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS OF WRITING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NEAR MATHIS TO SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY WANES. BRUSH COUNTRY REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION AND THUS AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP THERE THIS EVENING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM OLD MX
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HANDLING OF H5
S/W TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH. 12Z ECMWF ADVECTS A S/W TROUGH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA /ASIDE FROM
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/. THE GFS ON THE
OTHERHAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND INITIATES DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS COAHUILA MX AND INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL...HAVE UNDERCUT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE 30/40 POPS FROM EAST TO
WEST. OTHER THAN PRECIP POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. ASSUMING THAT THERE IS NOT ANOTHER MCS TRAVERSING THE AREA
IN THE MORNING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD
COVER/RAIN IMPACTING MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH 30 POPS IN THE MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING TO ACROSS THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER MCS TO OUR NW IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOCUS AGAIN WOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN PARTS ON THE
REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DEEP LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  84  74  85  77  /  30  40  20  30  40
VICTORIA          70  84  73  84  75  /  30  40  10  40  40
LAREDO            72  88  74  89  74  /  40  30  20  30  60
ALICE             71  85  73  88  77  /  30  40  20  40  50
ROCKPORT          74  85  76  85  78  /  30  40  20  30  40
COTULLA           70  87  73  86  73  /  40  40  20  50  60
KINGSVILLE        72  86  74  87  77  /  30  40  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       75  84  76  84  78  /  30  40  20  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 212337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM S OF
KINGSVILLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TOWARD ROCKPORT...IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH 01Z. LRD...ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LULL THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BDRY...WHILE CONVECTION IN
MEXICO ALSO MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS THEN VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW. GENERALLY VFR CIGS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THEN LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DVLP
LEADING TO MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. IN AND AROUND
STORMS...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ECMWF WAS THE ONLY
MODEL SUITE TO PROPERLY HANDLE THIS MORNING/S MCS DOWN THE RIO
GRANDE. EVEN TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED HI RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS MORNING/S EVENT. IN TURN THIS LEADS
TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS OF WRITING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NEAR MATHIS TO SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY WANES. BRUSH COUNTRY REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION AND THUS AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP THERE THIS EVENING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM OLD MX
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HANDLING OF H5
S/W TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH. 12Z ECMWF ADVECTS A S/W TROUGH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA /ASIDE FROM
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/. THE GFS ON THE
OTHERHAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND INITIATES DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS COAHUILA MX AND INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL...HAVE UNDERCUT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE 30/40 POPS FROM EAST TO
WEST. OTHER THAN PRECIP POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. ASSUMING THAT THERE IS NOT ANOTHER MCS TRAVERSING THE AREA
IN THE MORNING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD
COVER/RAIN IMPACTING MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH 30 POPS IN THE MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING TO ACROSS THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER MCS TO OUR NW IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOCUS AGAIN WOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN PARTS ON THE
REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DEEP LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  84  74  85  77  /  30  40  20  30  40
VICTORIA          70  84  73  84  75  /  30  40  10  40  40
LAREDO            72  88  74  89  74  /  40  30  20  30  60
ALICE             71  85  73  88  77  /  30  40  20  40  50
ROCKPORT          74  85  76  85  78  /  30  40  20  30  40
COTULLA           70  87  73  86  73  /  40  40  20  50  60
KINGSVILLE        72  86  74  87  77  /  30  40  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       75  84  76  84  78  /  30  40  20  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 212059
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ECMWF WAS THE ONLY
MODEL SUITE TO PROPERLY HANDLE THIS MORNING/S MCS DOWN THE RIO
GRANDE. EVEN TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED HI RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS MORNING/S EVENT. IN TURN THIS LEADS
TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS OF WRITING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NEAR MATHIS TO SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY WANES. BRUSH COUNTRY REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION AND THUS AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP THERE THIS EVENING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM OLD MX
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HANDLING OF H5
S/W TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH. 12Z ECMWF ADVECTS A S/W TROUGH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA /ASIDE FROM
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/. THE GFS ON THE
OTHERHAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND INITIATES DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS COAHUILA MX AND INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL...HAVE UNDERCUT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE 30/40 POPS FROM EAST TO
WEST. OTHER THAN PRECIP POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. ASSUMING THAT THERE IS NOT ANOTHER MCS TRAVERSING THE AREA
IN THE MORNING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD
COVER/RAIN IMPACTING MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH 30 POPS IN THE MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING TO ACROSS THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER MCS TO OUR NW IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOCUS AGAIN WOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN PARTS ON THE
REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DEEP LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  84  74  85  77  /  30  40  20  30  40
VICTORIA          70  84  73  84  75  /  30  40  10  40  40
LAREDO            72  88  74  89  74  /  40  30  20  30  60
ALICE             71  85  73  88  77  /  30  40  20  40  50
ROCKPORT          74  85  76  85  78  /  30  40  20  30  40
COTULLA           70  87  73  86  73  /  40  40  20  50  60
KINGSVILLE        72  86  74  87  77  /  30  40  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       75  84  76  84  78  /  30  40  20  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 212059
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ECMWF WAS THE ONLY
MODEL SUITE TO PROPERLY HANDLE THIS MORNING/S MCS DOWN THE RIO
GRANDE. EVEN TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED HI RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS MORNING/S EVENT. IN TURN THIS LEADS
TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS OF WRITING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NEAR MATHIS TO SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY WANES. BRUSH COUNTRY REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION AND THUS AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP THERE THIS EVENING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM OLD MX
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HANDLING OF H5
S/W TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH. 12Z ECMWF ADVECTS A S/W TROUGH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA /ASIDE FROM
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/. THE GFS ON THE
OTHERHAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND INITIATES DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS COAHUILA MX AND INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL...HAVE UNDERCUT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE 30/40 POPS FROM EAST TO
WEST. OTHER THAN PRECIP POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. ASSUMING THAT THERE IS NOT ANOTHER MCS TRAVERSING THE AREA
IN THE MORNING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD
COVER/RAIN IMPACTING MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH 30 POPS IN THE MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING TO ACROSS THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER MCS TO OUR NW IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOCUS AGAIN WOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN PARTS ON THE
REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DEEP LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  84  74  85  77  /  30  40  20  30  40
VICTORIA          70  84  73  84  75  /  30  40  10  40  40
LAREDO            72  88  74  89  74  /  40  30  20  30  60
ALICE             71  85  73  88  77  /  30  40  20  40  50
ROCKPORT          74  85  76  85  78  /  30  40  20  30  40
COTULLA           70  87  73  86  73  /  40  40  20  50  60
KINGSVILLE        72  86  74  87  77  /  30  40  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       75  84  76  84  78  /  30  40  20  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 212059
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ECMWF WAS THE ONLY
MODEL SUITE TO PROPERLY HANDLE THIS MORNING/S MCS DOWN THE RIO
GRANDE. EVEN TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED HI RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS MORNING/S EVENT. IN TURN THIS LEADS
TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS OF WRITING...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NEAR MATHIS TO SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY WANES. BRUSH COUNTRY REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION AND THUS AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP THERE THIS EVENING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM OLD MX
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HANDLING OF H5
S/W TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH. 12Z ECMWF ADVECTS A S/W TROUGH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA /ASIDE FROM
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/. THE GFS ON THE
OTHERHAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND INITIATES DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS COAHUILA MX AND INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL...HAVE UNDERCUT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE 30/40 POPS FROM EAST TO
WEST. OTHER THAN PRECIP POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. ASSUMING THAT THERE IS NOT ANOTHER MCS TRAVERSING THE AREA
IN THE MORNING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD
COVER/RAIN IMPACTING MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH 30 POPS IN THE MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING TO ACROSS THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER MCS TO OUR NW IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOCUS AGAIN WOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN PARTS ON THE
REGION INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DEEP LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  84  74  85  77  /  30  40  20  30  40
VICTORIA          70  84  73  84  75  /  30  40  10  40  40
LAREDO            72  88  74  89  74  /  40  30  20  30  60
ALICE             71  85  73  88  77  /  30  40  20  40  50
ROCKPORT          74  85  76  85  78  /  30  40  20  30  40
COTULLA           70  87  73  86  73  /  40  40  20  50  60
KINGSVILLE        72  86  74  87  77  /  30  40  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       75  84  76  84  78  /  30  40  20  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 211739 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FCST. AS OF MIDDAY A SFC FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM JUST S OF KVCT WWRD TO NEAR KBEA...AND THEN SWWRD TO
S OF KLRD. TSRA WERE DVLPNG VCNTY KVCT AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
AREA THRU EARLY AFTN AS THE FRONT SAGS SWRD. HAVE TEMPO GROUPINGS
FOR EARLY/MID AFTN AT KCRP/KVCT WITH VCNTY MENTION AT KALI. KLRD
CURRENTLY STABILIZED FROM EARLY MRNG CONVECTION AND CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIP ARE LOW ATTM. A LULL IN PRECIP AREAWIDE MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL PRECIP DVLPS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AS A WX DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITH PRECIP...OTHERWISE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THIS
AFTN...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. ESERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...NRLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  85  77  87  77  /  20  30  20  40  30
VICTORIA          72  84  75  85  75  /  30  40  10  40  40
LAREDO            73  89  76  91  75  /  50  40  30  30  60
ALICE             74  86  77  89  76  /  30  30  20  40  50
ROCKPORT          76  83  79  85  78  /  20  30  20  30  30
COTULLA           70  86  73  85  73  /  50  40  30  50  60
KINGSVILLE        75  86  77  88  77  /  20  30  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       77  83  78  85  78  /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 211739 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FCST. AS OF MIDDAY A SFC FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM JUST S OF KVCT WWRD TO NEAR KBEA...AND THEN SWWRD TO
S OF KLRD. TSRA WERE DVLPNG VCNTY KVCT AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
AREA THRU EARLY AFTN AS THE FRONT SAGS SWRD. HAVE TEMPO GROUPINGS
FOR EARLY/MID AFTN AT KCRP/KVCT WITH VCNTY MENTION AT KALI. KLRD
CURRENTLY STABILIZED FROM EARLY MRNG CONVECTION AND CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIP ARE LOW ATTM. A LULL IN PRECIP AREAWIDE MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL PRECIP DVLPS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AS A WX DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITH PRECIP...OTHERWISE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THIS
AFTN...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. ESERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...NRLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  85  77  87  77  /  20  30  20  40  30
VICTORIA          72  84  75  85  75  /  30  40  10  40  40
LAREDO            73  89  76  91  75  /  50  40  30  30  60
ALICE             74  86  77  89  76  /  30  30  20  40  50
ROCKPORT          76  83  79  85  78  /  20  30  20  30  30
COTULLA           70  86  73  85  73  /  50  40  30  50  60
KINGSVILLE        75  86  77  88  77  /  20  30  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       77  83  78  85  78  /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211648
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1148 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS MORNING MCS
HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE A BIT WITH ONLY SLOW RECOVERY
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS /ESPECIALLY NE COUNTIES/ WHERE
GREATEST DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. HAVE TRENDED POPS FOR
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NE AND LOWEST ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  75  85  77  87  /  50  20  30  20  40
VICTORIA          84  72  84  75  85  /  70  30  40  10  40
LAREDO            83  73  89  76  91  /  30  50  40  30  30
ALICE             84  74  86  77  89  /  50  30  30  20  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  83  79  85  /  50  20  30  20  30
COTULLA           80  70  86  73  85  /  30  50  40  30  50
KINGSVILLE        84  75  86  77  88  /  50  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  85  /  50  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211648 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1148 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS MORNING MCS
HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE A BIT WITH ONLY SLOW RECOVERY
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS /ESPECIALLY NE COUNTIES/ WHERE
GREATEST DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. HAVE TRENDED POPS FOR
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NE AND LOWEST ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  75  85  77  87  /  50  20  30  20  40
VICTORIA          84  72  84  75  85  /  70  30  40  10  40
LAREDO            83  73  89  76  91  /  30  50  40  30  30
ALICE             84  74  86  77  89  /  50  30  30  20  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  83  79  85  /  50  20  30  20  30
COTULLA           80  70  86  73  85  /  30  50  40  30  50
KINGSVILLE        84  75  86  77  88  /  50  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  85  /  50  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211648 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1148 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS MORNING MCS
HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE A BIT WITH ONLY SLOW RECOVERY
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS /ESPECIALLY NE COUNTIES/ WHERE
GREATEST DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. HAVE TRENDED POPS FOR
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NE AND LOWEST ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  75  85  77  87  /  50  20  30  20  40
VICTORIA          84  72  84  75  85  /  70  30  40  10  40
LAREDO            83  73  89  76  91  /  30  50  40  30  30
ALICE             84  74  86  77  89  /  50  30  30  20  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  83  79  85  /  50  20  30  20  30
COTULLA           80  70  86  73  85  /  30  50  40  30  50
KINGSVILLE        84  75  86  77  88  /  50  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  85  /  50  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79




000
FXUS64 KCRP 211430
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
930 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...COMPLEX FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY. MCS THAT
PUSHED SOUTH AND INTENSIFIED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO BRO CWA WITH NE WEAKER FRINGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP FARTHER EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. 12Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH BY
LAST NIGHT/S MCS AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR VICTORIA SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY. COMBINATION OF FRONT AND AN
UNSTABLE/MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
NVA BEHIND A H5 VORT MAX CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA MAY
NEGATE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT ACROSS EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA...WITH ADDITIONAL UPDATES
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING BASED UPON FUTURE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
HAVE MAINTAINED FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN ONGOING
PRECIP...AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND FARTHER EAST LATER IF HEAVY
RAINFALL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  75  85  77  87  /  50  20  30  20  40
VICTORIA          84  72  84  75  85  /  70  30  40  10  40
LAREDO            87  73  89  76  91  /  50  50  40  30  30
ALICE             86  74  86  77  89  /  60  30  30  20  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  83  79  85  /  50  20  30  20  30
COTULLA           83  70  86  73  85  /  50  50  40  30  50
KINGSVILLE        87  75  86  77  88  /  60  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  85  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DUVAL...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211430 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
930 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...COMPLEX FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY. MCS THAT
PUSHED SOUTH AND INTENSIFIED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO BRO CWA WITH NE WEAKER FRINGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP FARTHER EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. 12Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH BY
LAST NIGHT/S MCS AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR VICTORIA SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY. COMBINATION OF FRONT AND AN
UNSTABLE/MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
NVA BEHIND A H5 VORT MAX CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA MAY
NEGATE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT ACROSS EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA...WITH ADDITIONAL UPDATES
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING BASED UPON FUTURE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
HAVE MAINTAINED FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN ONGOING
PRECIP...AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND FARTHER EAST LATER IF HEAVY
RAINFALL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  75  85  77  87  /  50  20  30  20  40
VICTORIA          84  72  84  75  85  /  70  30  40  10  40
LAREDO            87  73  89  76  91  /  50  50  40  30  30
ALICE             86  74  86  77  89  /  60  30  30  20  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  83  79  85  /  50  20  30  20  30
COTULLA           83  70  86  73  85  /  50  50  40  30  50
KINGSVILLE        87  75  86  77  88  /  60  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  85  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DUVAL...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79




000
FXUS64 KCRP 211430 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
930 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...COMPLEX FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY. MCS THAT
PUSHED SOUTH AND INTENSIFIED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO BRO CWA WITH NE WEAKER FRINGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP FARTHER EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. 12Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH BY
LAST NIGHT/S MCS AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR VICTORIA SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY. COMBINATION OF FRONT AND AN
UNSTABLE/MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
NVA BEHIND A H5 VORT MAX CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA MAY
NEGATE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT ACROSS EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA...WITH ADDITIONAL UPDATES
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING BASED UPON FUTURE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
HAVE MAINTAINED FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN ONGOING
PRECIP...AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND FARTHER EAST LATER IF HEAVY
RAINFALL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  75  85  77  87  /  50  20  30  20  40
VICTORIA          84  72  84  75  85  /  70  30  40  10  40
LAREDO            87  73  89  76  91  /  50  50  40  30  30
ALICE             86  74  86  77  89  /  60  30  30  20  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  83  79  85  /  50  20  30  20  30
COTULLA           83  70  86  73  85  /  50  50  40  30  50
KINGSVILLE        87  75  86  77  88  /  60  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  85  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DUVAL...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211143
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 281.
ANTICIPATE SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL.
CONTINUE TO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT. GENERALLY LGT/MODERATE EAST FLOW EXPECTED
DRG THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS AND NAM DETERMINISTIC
SUGGEST THAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD. CONCUR WITH THE NAM
DETERMINISTIC THAT A FRONT (PER MSAS) WL STALL ACRS THE NRN CWA
TODAY. FURTHER...THE NAM DEPICT HIGH PWAT VALUES DRG THE PERIOD.
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/ALONG THE STALL BOUNDARY OVR THE NRN CWA. CONCUR WITH WPC
THAT THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS SIGNIFICANT FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA. YET...WL RESTRICT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING TO LOCATIONS
OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER WEBB/DUVAL
COUNTIES BASED ON SREF OUTPUT. ISSUED A FFA FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH DID NOT EXTEND THE FFA BEYOND 00Z
FRIDAY...AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN CONTINUED PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCES/COPIOUS MOISTURE. THE RISK FOF FLASH
FLOODING MAY DECREASE BY FRIDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE/MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGING
EXITS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THIS...LINGERING PWATS OF 1.7-
1.8 INCHES AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. IN THE MEAN TIME...FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...KICKING OFF SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING.
AND WITH THE UPPER JET SNEAKING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIFFLUENT
FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND THROUGH
THE NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM A MCS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS AND
PUSHES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD PULLING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTOMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A WITH
THIS EVENT. BY MONDAY...BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. BROAD RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  75  85  77  87  /  40  20  30  20  40
VICTORIA          84  72  84  75  85  /  50  30  40  10  40
LAREDO            87  73  89  76  91  /  50  50  40  30  30
ALICE             86  74  86  77  89  /  50  30  30  20  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  83  79  85  /  40  20  30  20  30
COTULLA           83  70  86  73  85  /  60  50  40  30  50
KINGSVILLE        87  75  86  77  88  /  40  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  85  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DUVAL...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211143
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 281.
ANTICIPATE SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL.
CONTINUE TO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT. GENERALLY LGT/MODERATE EAST FLOW EXPECTED
DRG THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS AND NAM DETERMINISTIC
SUGGEST THAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD. CONCUR WITH THE NAM
DETERMINISTIC THAT A FRONT (PER MSAS) WL STALL ACRS THE NRN CWA
TODAY. FURTHER...THE NAM DEPICT HIGH PWAT VALUES DRG THE PERIOD.
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/ALONG THE STALL BOUNDARY OVR THE NRN CWA. CONCUR WITH WPC
THAT THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS SIGNIFICANT FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA. YET...WL RESTRICT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING TO LOCATIONS
OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER WEBB/DUVAL
COUNTIES BASED ON SREF OUTPUT. ISSUED A FFA FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH DID NOT EXTEND THE FFA BEYOND 00Z
FRIDAY...AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN CONTINUED PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCES/COPIOUS MOISTURE. THE RISK FOF FLASH
FLOODING MAY DECREASE BY FRIDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE/MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGING
EXITS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THIS...LINGERING PWATS OF 1.7-
1.8 INCHES AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. IN THE MEAN TIME...FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...KICKING OFF SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING.
AND WITH THE UPPER JET SNEAKING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIFFLUENT
FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND THROUGH
THE NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM A MCS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS AND
PUSHES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD PULLING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTOMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A WITH
THIS EVENT. BY MONDAY...BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. BROAD RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  75  85  77  87  /  40  20  30  20  40
VICTORIA          84  72  84  75  85  /  50  30  40  10  40
LAREDO            87  73  89  76  91  /  50  50  40  30  30
ALICE             86  74  86  77  89  /  50  30  30  20  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  83  79  85  /  40  20  30  20  30
COTULLA           83  70  86  73  85  /  60  50  40  30  50
KINGSVILLE        87  75  86  77  88  /  40  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  85  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DUVAL...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 211143
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 281.
ANTICIPATE SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL.
CONTINUE TO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT. GENERALLY LGT/MODERATE EAST FLOW EXPECTED
DRG THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS AND NAM DETERMINISTIC
SUGGEST THAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD. CONCUR WITH THE NAM
DETERMINISTIC THAT A FRONT (PER MSAS) WL STALL ACRS THE NRN CWA
TODAY. FURTHER...THE NAM DEPICT HIGH PWAT VALUES DRG THE PERIOD.
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/ALONG THE STALL BOUNDARY OVR THE NRN CWA. CONCUR WITH WPC
THAT THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS SIGNIFICANT FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA. YET...WL RESTRICT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING TO LOCATIONS
OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER WEBB/DUVAL
COUNTIES BASED ON SREF OUTPUT. ISSUED A FFA FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH DID NOT EXTEND THE FFA BEYOND 00Z
FRIDAY...AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN CONTINUED PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCES/COPIOUS MOISTURE. THE RISK FOF FLASH
FLOODING MAY DECREASE BY FRIDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE/MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGING
EXITS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THIS...LINGERING PWATS OF 1.7-
1.8 INCHES AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. IN THE MEAN TIME...FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...KICKING OFF SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING.
AND WITH THE UPPER JET SNEAKING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIFFLUENT
FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND THROUGH
THE NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM A MCS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS AND
PUSHES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD PULLING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTOMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A WITH
THIS EVENT. BY MONDAY...BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. BROAD RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  75  85  77  87  /  40  20  30  20  40
VICTORIA          84  72  84  75  85  /  50  30  40  10  40
LAREDO            87  73  89  76  91  /  50  50  40  30  30
ALICE             86  74  86  77  89  /  50  30  30  20  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  83  79  85  /  40  20  30  20  30
COTULLA           83  70  86  73  85  /  60  50  40  30  50
KINGSVILLE        87  75  86  77  88  /  40  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  85  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DUVAL...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211143
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 281.
ANTICIPATE SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL.
CONTINUE TO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT. GENERALLY LGT/MODERATE EAST FLOW EXPECTED
DRG THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS AND NAM DETERMINISTIC
SUGGEST THAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD. CONCUR WITH THE NAM
DETERMINISTIC THAT A FRONT (PER MSAS) WL STALL ACRS THE NRN CWA
TODAY. FURTHER...THE NAM DEPICT HIGH PWAT VALUES DRG THE PERIOD.
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/ALONG THE STALL BOUNDARY OVR THE NRN CWA. CONCUR WITH WPC
THAT THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS SIGNIFICANT FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA. YET...WL RESTRICT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING TO LOCATIONS
OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER WEBB/DUVAL
COUNTIES BASED ON SREF OUTPUT. ISSUED A FFA FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH DID NOT EXTEND THE FFA BEYOND 00Z
FRIDAY...AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN CONTINUED PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCES/COPIOUS MOISTURE. THE RISK FOF FLASH
FLOODING MAY DECREASE BY FRIDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE/MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGING
EXITS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THIS...LINGERING PWATS OF 1.7-
1.8 INCHES AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. IN THE MEAN TIME...FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...KICKING OFF SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING.
AND WITH THE UPPER JET SNEAKING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIFFLUENT
FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND THROUGH
THE NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM A MCS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS AND
PUSHES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD PULLING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTOMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A WITH
THIS EVENT. BY MONDAY...BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. BROAD RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  75  85  77  87  /  40  20  30  20  40
VICTORIA          84  72  84  75  85  /  50  30  40  10  40
LAREDO            87  73  89  76  91  /  50  50  40  30  30
ALICE             86  74  86  77  89  /  50  30  30  20  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  83  79  85  /  40  20  30  20  30
COTULLA           83  70  86  73  85  /  60  50  40  30  50
KINGSVILLE        87  75  86  77  88  /  40  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  85  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DUVAL...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 210935
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
435 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS AND NAM DETERMINISTIC
SUGGEST THAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD. CONCUR WITH THE NAM
DETERMINISTIC THAT A FRONT (PER MSAS) WL STALL ACRS THE NRN CWA
TODAY. FURTHER...THE NAM DEPICT HIGH PWAT VALUES DRG THE PERIOD.
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/ALONG THE STALL BOUNDARY OVR THE NRN CWA. CONCUR WITH WPC
THAT THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS SIGNIFICANT FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA. YET...WL RESTRICT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING TO LOCATIONS
OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER WEBB/DUVAL
COUNTIES BASED ON SREF OUTPUT. ISSUED A FFA FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH DID NOT EXTEND THE FFA BEYOND 00Z
FRIDAY...AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN CONTINUED PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCES/COPIOUS MOISTURE. THE RISK FOF FLASH
FLOODING MAY DECREASE BY FRIDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE/MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGING
EXITS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THIS...LINGERING PWATS OF 1.7-
1.8 INCHES AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. IN THE MEAN TIME...FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...KICKING OFF SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING.
AND WITH THE UPPER JET SNEAKING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIFFLUENT
FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND THROUGH
THE NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM A MCS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS AND
PUSHES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD PULLING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTOMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A WITH
THIS EVENT. BY MONDAY...BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. BROAD RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  75  85  77  87  /  40  20  30  20  40
VICTORIA          84  72  84  75  85  /  50  30  40  10  40
LAREDO            87  73  89  76  91  /  50  50  40  30  30
ALICE             86  74  86  77  89  /  50  30  30  20  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  83  79  85  /  40  20  30  20  30
COTULLA           83  70  86  73  85  /  60  50  40  30  50
KINGSVILLE        87  75  86  77  88  /  40  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  85  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DUVAL...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 210935
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
435 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS AND NAM DETERMINISTIC
SUGGEST THAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD. CONCUR WITH THE NAM
DETERMINISTIC THAT A FRONT (PER MSAS) WL STALL ACRS THE NRN CWA
TODAY. FURTHER...THE NAM DEPICT HIGH PWAT VALUES DRG THE PERIOD.
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/ALONG THE STALL BOUNDARY OVR THE NRN CWA. CONCUR WITH WPC
THAT THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS SIGNIFICANT FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA. YET...WL RESTRICT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING TO LOCATIONS
OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER WEBB/DUVAL
COUNTIES BASED ON SREF OUTPUT. ISSUED A FFA FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH DID NOT EXTEND THE FFA BEYOND 00Z
FRIDAY...AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN CONTINUED PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCES/COPIOUS MOISTURE. THE RISK FOF FLASH
FLOODING MAY DECREASE BY FRIDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE/MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGING
EXITS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THIS...LINGERING PWATS OF 1.7-
1.8 INCHES AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. IN THE MEAN TIME...FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...KICKING OFF SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING.
AND WITH THE UPPER JET SNEAKING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIFFLUENT
FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND THROUGH
THE NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM A MCS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS AND
PUSHES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD PULLING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTOMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A WITH
THIS EVENT. BY MONDAY...BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. BROAD RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  75  85  77  87  /  40  20  30  20  40
VICTORIA          84  72  84  75  85  /  50  30  40  10  40
LAREDO            87  73  89  76  91  /  50  50  40  30  30
ALICE             86  74  86  77  89  /  50  30  30  20  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  83  79  85  /  40  20  30  20  30
COTULLA           83  70  86  73  85  /  60  50  40  30  50
KINGSVILLE        87  75  86  77  88  /  40  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  85  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DUVAL...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 210644
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
144 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 281.
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 MAINTAIN 09-14Z
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS...DRG THE MID MORNING/AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLD
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT. GENERALLY
LGT/MODERATE EAST FLOW DRG THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...STORMS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA IN MEXICO SHOULD
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING INTO THE CWA AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MEXICO CONVECTION
POTENTIALLY MOVG ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AS THEY WEAKEN. WIND AND
TEMP FCST ALSO LOOK REASONABLE WITH NO CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AM EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AM GOING TO GO WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...MAINLY FOR CIGS BUT COULD ALSO BE FOG AT KALI AND
KVCT. AT KLRD...ALSO ADDED VCTS AFTER 21/06Z WITH A PROB30 TSRA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z BASED ON NSSL 4KM MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM PROBABILITIES (TTU HAS NO CONVECTION TONIGHT). LESS WIND
ON THURSDAY WITH FRONT PROXIMATE AND MORE EASTERLY AS WELL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AOA 17Z OR SO. DID
MENTION PROB30 THUNDER AT KALI...SHOWERS AT KCRP...AND TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT...TEMPO AT KVCT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MEXICAN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AT KLRD...DO NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE A PROB30/TEMPO THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO FOR NOW
AM GOING WITH ONLY A VCTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  76  86  77  88  /  40  20  30  10  30
VICTORIA          85  72  86  76  87  /  50  30  30  10  30
LAREDO            87  74  91  76  92  /  50  50  30  30  30
ALICE             87  74  92  75  90  /  50  30  30  10  40
ROCKPORT          85  77  87  78  86  /  40  20  30  20  20
COTULLA           85  72  89  74  90  /  50  50  30  30  50
KINGSVILLE        87  75  88  76  90  /  40  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  86  78  87  /  40  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 210644
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
144 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 281.
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 MAINTAIN 09-14Z
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS...DRG THE MID MORNING/AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLD
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT. GENERALLY
LGT/MODERATE EAST FLOW DRG THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...STORMS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA IN MEXICO SHOULD
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING INTO THE CWA AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MEXICO CONVECTION
POTENTIALLY MOVG ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AS THEY WEAKEN. WIND AND
TEMP FCST ALSO LOOK REASONABLE WITH NO CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AM EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AM GOING TO GO WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...MAINLY FOR CIGS BUT COULD ALSO BE FOG AT KALI AND
KVCT. AT KLRD...ALSO ADDED VCTS AFTER 21/06Z WITH A PROB30 TSRA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z BASED ON NSSL 4KM MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM PROBABILITIES (TTU HAS NO CONVECTION TONIGHT). LESS WIND
ON THURSDAY WITH FRONT PROXIMATE AND MORE EASTERLY AS WELL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AOA 17Z OR SO. DID
MENTION PROB30 THUNDER AT KALI...SHOWERS AT KCRP...AND TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT...TEMPO AT KVCT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MEXICAN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AT KLRD...DO NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE A PROB30/TEMPO THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO FOR NOW
AM GOING WITH ONLY A VCTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  76  86  77  88  /  40  20  30  10  30
VICTORIA          85  72  86  76  87  /  50  30  30  10  30
LAREDO            87  74  91  76  92  /  50  50  30  30  30
ALICE             87  74  92  75  90  /  50  30  30  10  40
ROCKPORT          85  77  87  78  86  /  40  20  30  20  20
COTULLA           85  72  89  74  90  /  50  50  30  30  50
KINGSVILLE        87  75  88  76  90  /  40  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  86  78  87  /  40  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 210644
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
144 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 281.
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 MAINTAIN 09-14Z
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS...DRG THE MID MORNING/AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLD
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT. GENERALLY
LGT/MODERATE EAST FLOW DRG THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...STORMS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA IN MEXICO SHOULD
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING INTO THE CWA AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MEXICO CONVECTION
POTENTIALLY MOVG ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AS THEY WEAKEN. WIND AND
TEMP FCST ALSO LOOK REASONABLE WITH NO CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AM EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AM GOING TO GO WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...MAINLY FOR CIGS BUT COULD ALSO BE FOG AT KALI AND
KVCT. AT KLRD...ALSO ADDED VCTS AFTER 21/06Z WITH A PROB30 TSRA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z BASED ON NSSL 4KM MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM PROBABILITIES (TTU HAS NO CONVECTION TONIGHT). LESS WIND
ON THURSDAY WITH FRONT PROXIMATE AND MORE EASTERLY AS WELL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AOA 17Z OR SO. DID
MENTION PROB30 THUNDER AT KALI...SHOWERS AT KCRP...AND TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT...TEMPO AT KVCT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MEXICAN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AT KLRD...DO NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE A PROB30/TEMPO THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO FOR NOW
AM GOING WITH ONLY A VCTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  76  86  77  88  /  40  20  30  10  30
VICTORIA          85  72  86  76  87  /  50  30  30  10  30
LAREDO            87  74  91  76  92  /  50  50  30  30  30
ALICE             87  74  92  75  90  /  50  30  30  10  40
ROCKPORT          85  77  87  78  86  /  40  20  30  20  20
COTULLA           85  72  89  74  90  /  50  50  30  30  50
KINGSVILLE        87  75  88  76  90  /  40  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  86  78  87  /  40  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 210644
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
144 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 281.
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 MAINTAIN 09-14Z
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS...DRG THE MID MORNING/AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLD
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT. GENERALLY
LGT/MODERATE EAST FLOW DRG THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...STORMS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA IN MEXICO SHOULD
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING INTO THE CWA AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MEXICO CONVECTION
POTENTIALLY MOVG ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AS THEY WEAKEN. WIND AND
TEMP FCST ALSO LOOK REASONABLE WITH NO CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AM EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AM GOING TO GO WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...MAINLY FOR CIGS BUT COULD ALSO BE FOG AT KALI AND
KVCT. AT KLRD...ALSO ADDED VCTS AFTER 21/06Z WITH A PROB30 TSRA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z BASED ON NSSL 4KM MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM PROBABILITIES (TTU HAS NO CONVECTION TONIGHT). LESS WIND
ON THURSDAY WITH FRONT PROXIMATE AND MORE EASTERLY AS WELL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AOA 17Z OR SO. DID
MENTION PROB30 THUNDER AT KALI...SHOWERS AT KCRP...AND TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT...TEMPO AT KVCT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MEXICAN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AT KLRD...DO NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE A PROB30/TEMPO THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO FOR NOW
AM GOING WITH ONLY A VCTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  76  86  77  88  /  40  20  30  10  30
VICTORIA          85  72  86  76  87  /  50  30  30  10  30
LAREDO            87  74  91  76  92  /  50  50  30  30  30
ALICE             87  74  92  75  90  /  50  30  30  10  40
ROCKPORT          85  77  87  78  86  /  40  20  30  20  20
COTULLA           85  72  89  74  90  /  50  50  30  30  50
KINGSVILLE        87  75  88  76  90  /  40  20  30  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  86  78  87  /  40  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 210031
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
731 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...STORMS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA IN MEXICO SHOULD
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING INTO THE CWA AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MEXICO CONVECTION
POTENTIALLY MOVG ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AS THEY WEAKEN. WIND AND
TEMP FCST ALSO LOOK REASONABLE WITH NO CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AM EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AM GOING TO GO WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...MAINLY FOR CIGS BUT COULD ALSO BE FOG AT KALI AND
KVCT. AT KLRD...ALSO ADDED VCTS AFTER 21/06Z WITH A PROB30 TSRA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z BASED ON NSSL 4KM MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM PROBABILITIES (TTU HAS NO CONVECTION TONIGHT). LESS WIND
ON THURSDAY WITH FRONT PROXIMATE AND MORE EASTERLY AS WELL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AOA 17Z OR SO. DID
MENTION PROB30 THUNDER AT KALI...SHOWERS AT KCRP...AND TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT...TEMPO AT KVCT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MEXICAN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AT KLRD...DO NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE A PROB30/TEMPO THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO FOR NOW
AM GOING WITH ONLY A VCTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  86  76  86  77  /  10  40  20  30  10
VICTORIA          73  85  72  86  76  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  87  74  91  76  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  87  74  92  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
ROCKPORT          77  85  77  87  78  /  10  40  20  30  20
COTULLA           74  85  72  89  74  /  30  50  50  30  30
KINGSVILLE        76  87  75  88  76  /  10  40  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  86  78  /  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 210031
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
731 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...STORMS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA IN MEXICO SHOULD
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING INTO THE CWA AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MEXICO CONVECTION
POTENTIALLY MOVG ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AS THEY WEAKEN. WIND AND
TEMP FCST ALSO LOOK REASONABLE WITH NO CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AM EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AM GOING TO GO WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...MAINLY FOR CIGS BUT COULD ALSO BE FOG AT KALI AND
KVCT. AT KLRD...ALSO ADDED VCTS AFTER 21/06Z WITH A PROB30 TSRA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z BASED ON NSSL 4KM MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM PROBABILITIES (TTU HAS NO CONVECTION TONIGHT). LESS WIND
ON THURSDAY WITH FRONT PROXIMATE AND MORE EASTERLY AS WELL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AOA 17Z OR SO. DID
MENTION PROB30 THUNDER AT KALI...SHOWERS AT KCRP...AND TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT...TEMPO AT KVCT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MEXICAN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AT KLRD...DO NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE A PROB30/TEMPO THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO FOR NOW
AM GOING WITH ONLY A VCTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  86  76  86  77  /  10  40  20  30  10
VICTORIA          73  85  72  86  76  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  87  74  91  76  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  87  74  92  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
ROCKPORT          77  85  77  87  78  /  10  40  20  30  20
COTULLA           74  85  72  89  74  /  30  50  50  30  30
KINGSVILLE        76  87  75  88  76  /  10  40  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  86  78  /  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 202339 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AM EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AM GOING TO GO WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...MAINLY FOR CIGS BUT COULD ALSO BE FOG AT KALI AND
KVCT. AT KLRD...ALSO ADDED VCTS AFTER 21/06Z WITH A PROB30 TSRA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z BASED ON NSSL 4KM MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM PROBABILITIES (TTU HAS NO CONVECTION TONIGHT). LESS WIND
ON THURSDAY WITH FRONT PROXIMATE AND MORE EASTERLY AS WELL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AOA 17Z OR SO. DID
MENTION PROB30 THUNDER AT KALI...SHOWERS AT KCRP...AND TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT...TEMPO AT KVCT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MEXICAN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AT KLRD...DO NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE A PROB30/TEMPO THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO FOR NOW
AM GOING WITH ONLY A VCTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  86  76  86  77  /  10  40  20  30  10
VICTORIA          73  85  72  86  76  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  87  74  91  76  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  87  74  92  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
ROCKPORT          77  85  77  87  78  /  10  40  20  30  20
COTULLA           74  85  72  89  74  /  30  50  50  30  30
KINGSVILLE        76  87  75  88  76  /  10  40  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  86  78  /  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 202339 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AM EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AM GOING TO GO WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...MAINLY FOR CIGS BUT COULD ALSO BE FOG AT KALI AND
KVCT. AT KLRD...ALSO ADDED VCTS AFTER 21/06Z WITH A PROB30 TSRA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z BASED ON NSSL 4KM MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM PROBABILITIES (TTU HAS NO CONVECTION TONIGHT). LESS WIND
ON THURSDAY WITH FRONT PROXIMATE AND MORE EASTERLY AS WELL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AOA 17Z OR SO. DID
MENTION PROB30 THUNDER AT KALI...SHOWERS AT KCRP...AND TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT...TEMPO AT KVCT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MEXICAN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AT KLRD...DO NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE A PROB30/TEMPO THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO FOR NOW
AM GOING WITH ONLY A VCTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  86  76  86  77  /  10  40  20  30  10
VICTORIA          73  85  72  86  76  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  87  74  91  76  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  87  74  92  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
ROCKPORT          77  85  77  87  78  /  10  40  20  30  20
COTULLA           74  85  72  89  74  /  30  50  50  30  30
KINGSVILLE        76  87  75  88  76  /  10  40  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  86  78  /  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 202339 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AM EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AM GOING TO GO WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...MAINLY FOR CIGS BUT COULD ALSO BE FOG AT KALI AND
KVCT. AT KLRD...ALSO ADDED VCTS AFTER 21/06Z WITH A PROB30 TSRA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z BASED ON NSSL 4KM MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM PROBABILITIES (TTU HAS NO CONVECTION TONIGHT). LESS WIND
ON THURSDAY WITH FRONT PROXIMATE AND MORE EASTERLY AS WELL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AOA 17Z OR SO. DID
MENTION PROB30 THUNDER AT KALI...SHOWERS AT KCRP...AND TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT...TEMPO AT KVCT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MEXICAN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AT KLRD...DO NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE A PROB30/TEMPO THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO FOR NOW
AM GOING WITH ONLY A VCTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  86  76  86  77  /  10  40  20  30  10
VICTORIA          73  85  72  86  76  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  87  74  91  76  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  87  74  92  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
ROCKPORT          77  85  77  87  78  /  10  40  20  30  20
COTULLA           74  85  72  89  74  /  30  50  50  30  30
KINGSVILLE        76  87  75  88  76  /  10  40  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  86  78  /  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 202339
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AM EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AM GOING TO GO WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...MAINLY FOR CIGS BUT COULD ALSO BE FOG AT KALI AND
KVCT. AT KLRD...ALSO ADDED VCTS AFTER 21/06Z WITH A PROB30 TSRA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z BASED ON NSSL 4KM MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM PROBABILITIES (TTU HAS NO CONVECTION TONIGHT). LESS WIND
ON THURSDAY WITH FRONT PROXIMATE AND MORE EASTERLY AS WELL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AOA 17Z OR SO. DID
MENTION PROB30 THUNDER AT KALI...SHOWERS AT KCRP...AND TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT...TEMPO AT KVCT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MEXICAN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AT KLRD...DO NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE A PROB30/TEMPO THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO FOR NOW
AM GOING WITH ONLY A VCTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  86  76  86  77  /  10  40  20  30  10
VICTORIA          73  85  72  86  76  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  87  74  91  76  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  87  74  92  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
ROCKPORT          77  85  77  87  78  /  10  40  20  30  20
COTULLA           74  85  72  89  74  /  30  50  50  30  30
KINGSVILLE        76  87  75  88  76  /  10  40  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  86  78  /  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 202339 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AM EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AM GOING TO GO WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...MAINLY FOR CIGS BUT COULD ALSO BE FOG AT KALI AND
KVCT. AT KLRD...ALSO ADDED VCTS AFTER 21/06Z WITH A PROB30 TSRA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z BASED ON NSSL 4KM MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM PROBABILITIES (TTU HAS NO CONVECTION TONIGHT). LESS WIND
ON THURSDAY WITH FRONT PROXIMATE AND MORE EASTERLY AS WELL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AOA 17Z OR SO. DID
MENTION PROB30 THUNDER AT KALI...SHOWERS AT KCRP...AND TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT...TEMPO AT KVCT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MEXICAN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AT KLRD...DO NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE A PROB30/TEMPO THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO FOR NOW
AM GOING WITH ONLY A VCTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  86  76  86  77  /  10  40  20  30  10
VICTORIA          73  85  72  86  76  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  87  74  91  76  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  87  74  92  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
ROCKPORT          77  85  77  87  78  /  10  40  20  30  20
COTULLA           74  85  72  89  74  /  30  50  50  30  30
KINGSVILLE        76  87  75  88  76  /  10  40  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  86  78  /  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 202339
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AM EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AM GOING TO GO WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...MAINLY FOR CIGS BUT COULD ALSO BE FOG AT KALI AND
KVCT. AT KLRD...ALSO ADDED VCTS AFTER 21/06Z WITH A PROB30 TSRA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z BASED ON NSSL 4KM MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM PROBABILITIES (TTU HAS NO CONVECTION TONIGHT). LESS WIND
ON THURSDAY WITH FRONT PROXIMATE AND MORE EASTERLY AS WELL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AOA 17Z OR SO. DID
MENTION PROB30 THUNDER AT KALI...SHOWERS AT KCRP...AND TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT...TEMPO AT KVCT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MEXICAN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AT KLRD...DO NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE A PROB30/TEMPO THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO FOR NOW
AM GOING WITH ONLY A VCTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  86  76  86  77  /  10  40  20  30  10
VICTORIA          73  85  72  86  76  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  87  74  91  76  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  87  74  92  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
ROCKPORT          77  85  77  87  78  /  10  40  20  30  20
COTULLA           74  85  72  89  74  /  30  50  50  30  30
KINGSVILLE        76  87  75  88  76  /  10  40  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  86  78  /  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 201958
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  86  76  84  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
VICTORIA          74  85  72  85  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  89  75  89  77  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  88  75  88  76  /  10  40  30  40  10
ROCKPORT          76  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  30  10
COTULLA           73  86  73  87  73  /  30  50  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        75  88  76  86  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 201958
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  86  76  84  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
VICTORIA          74  85  72  85  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  89  75  89  77  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  88  75  88  76  /  10  40  30  40  10
ROCKPORT          76  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  30  10
COTULLA           73  86  73  87  73  /  30  50  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        75  88  76  86  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201958
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  86  76  84  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
VICTORIA          74  85  72  85  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  89  75  89  77  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  88  75  88  76  /  10  40  30  40  10
ROCKPORT          76  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  30  10
COTULLA           73  86  73  87  73  /  30  50  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        75  88  76  86  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 201958
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST IT
PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN QUESTION. BELIEVE STORMS COULD APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO NONMENTIONABLE NEAR
THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY
WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
INSTABILITY MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ON THURSDAY SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT WON/T MENTION IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS AGAIN TO THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS INCREASING. BEFORE
THEN...H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CWA LATE THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
BEING A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
IN THE SW H5 FLOW IS PROG TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND WITH A SE LLJ DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR SATURDAY...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES
NOT PUSH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASING AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY ACROSS BRUSH
COUNTRY/. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SW INTO TEXAS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. INTERACTION
OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IF
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE/. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND /AND
THAT NUMBER MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BASED OFF SOME MODEL SUITES/.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
TROUGH KICKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS NOT AS STRONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITES AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  86  76  84  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
VICTORIA          74  85  72  85  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  89  75  89  77  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  88  75  88  76  /  10  40  30  40  10
ROCKPORT          76  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  30  10
COTULLA           73  86  73  87  73  /  30  50  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        75  88  76  86  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201751
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1251 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES NEEDED TO HOURLY WX ELEMENTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY KEEP AT 20 POP IN THE FORECAST.
WARM CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA.

ALSO UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTY SELY WINDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE SOME SUNSET WITH CEILINGS
TRANSITIONING TO MVFR LEVELS. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP
TO THE NW OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND COULD APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS REMARKS FOR NOW AT LRD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CONTINUE TO EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR BY MID MORNING
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ANTICIPATED GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 281
THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LGT WIND AGAIN TNGT WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 DRG THE 10-12Z THURSDAY
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA/MSA
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PER MSAS WAS APPROACHING NORTH
CENTRAL TX. CONCUR WITH NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
FRONT WL ENTER CNTRL TX THEN STALL NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES/2000-2500J/KG CAPE (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE
TO SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
SECTIONS. SCEC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SRN BAYS/COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW DECREASING TNGT/THURSDAY OWING TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT SWELL
PERIODS WL REMAIN BELOW MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STALLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOCUS AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY
EVENING TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STRONG SHEARING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY WITH BROAD
MIDLEVEL RIDGING...HOWEVER DUE TO LINGERING ENERGY...INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FARTHER
EAST. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MEXICO INTO THE REGION. SLOW MOVEMENT
EASTWARD OF THE TROUGH WITH A CONTINUED STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS AND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS THEN PULLED TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE LIFTS
OUT OF THE REGION...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY. MAINTAINED BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. ALSO WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  86  76  84  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
VICTORIA          74  85  72  85  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  89  75  89  77  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  88  75  88  76  /  10  40  30  40  10
ROCKPORT          76  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  30  10
COTULLA           73  86  73  87  73  /  30  50  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        75  88  76  86  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 201751
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1251 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES NEEDED TO HOURLY WX ELEMENTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY KEEP AT 20 POP IN THE FORECAST.
WARM CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA.

ALSO UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTY SELY WINDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE SOME SUNSET WITH CEILINGS
TRANSITIONING TO MVFR LEVELS. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP
TO THE NW OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND COULD APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS REMARKS FOR NOW AT LRD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CONTINUE TO EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR BY MID MORNING
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ANTICIPATED GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 281
THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LGT WIND AGAIN TNGT WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 DRG THE 10-12Z THURSDAY
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA/MSA
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PER MSAS WAS APPROACHING NORTH
CENTRAL TX. CONCUR WITH NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
FRONT WL ENTER CNTRL TX THEN STALL NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES/2000-2500J/KG CAPE (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE
TO SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
SECTIONS. SCEC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SRN BAYS/COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW DECREASING TNGT/THURSDAY OWING TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT SWELL
PERIODS WL REMAIN BELOW MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STALLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOCUS AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY
EVENING TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STRONG SHEARING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY WITH BROAD
MIDLEVEL RIDGING...HOWEVER DUE TO LINGERING ENERGY...INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FARTHER
EAST. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MEXICO INTO THE REGION. SLOW MOVEMENT
EASTWARD OF THE TROUGH WITH A CONTINUED STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS AND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS THEN PULLED TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE LIFTS
OUT OF THE REGION...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY. MAINTAINED BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. ALSO WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  86  76  84  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
VICTORIA          74  85  72  85  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  89  75  89  77  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  88  75  88  76  /  10  40  30  40  10
ROCKPORT          76  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  30  10
COTULLA           73  86  73  87  73  /  30  50  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        75  88  76  86  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 201751
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1251 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES NEEDED TO HOURLY WX ELEMENTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY KEEP AT 20 POP IN THE FORECAST.
WARM CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA.

ALSO UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTY SELY WINDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE SOME SUNSET WITH CEILINGS
TRANSITIONING TO MVFR LEVELS. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP
TO THE NW OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND COULD APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS REMARKS FOR NOW AT LRD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CONTINUE TO EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR BY MID MORNING
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ANTICIPATED GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 281
THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LGT WIND AGAIN TNGT WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 DRG THE 10-12Z THURSDAY
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA/MSA
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PER MSAS WAS APPROACHING NORTH
CENTRAL TX. CONCUR WITH NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
FRONT WL ENTER CNTRL TX THEN STALL NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES/2000-2500J/KG CAPE (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE
TO SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
SECTIONS. SCEC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SRN BAYS/COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW DECREASING TNGT/THURSDAY OWING TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT SWELL
PERIODS WL REMAIN BELOW MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STALLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOCUS AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY
EVENING TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STRONG SHEARING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY WITH BROAD
MIDLEVEL RIDGING...HOWEVER DUE TO LINGERING ENERGY...INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FARTHER
EAST. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MEXICO INTO THE REGION. SLOW MOVEMENT
EASTWARD OF THE TROUGH WITH A CONTINUED STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS AND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS THEN PULLED TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE LIFTS
OUT OF THE REGION...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY. MAINTAINED BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. ALSO WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  86  76  84  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
VICTORIA          74  85  72  85  75  /  10  50  30  30  10
LAREDO            75  89  75  89  77  /  30  50  50  30  30
ALICE             75  88  75  88  76  /  10  40  30  40  10
ROCKPORT          76  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  30  10
COTULLA           73  86  73  87  73  /  30  50  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        75  88  76  86  77  /  10  30  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  83  78  /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201153
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
653 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUE TO EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR BY MID MORNING
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ANTICIPATED GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 281
THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LGT WIND AGAIN TNGT WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 DRG THE 10-12Z THURSDAY
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA/MSA
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PER MSAS WAS APPROACHING NORTH
CENTRAL TX. CONCUR WITH NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
FRONT WL ENTER CNTRL TX THEN STALL NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES/2000-2500J/KG CAPE (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE
TO SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
SECTIONS. SCEC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SRN BAYS/COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW DECREASING TNGT/THURSDAY OWING TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT SWELL
PERIODS WL REMAIN BELOW MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STALLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOCUS AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY
EVENING TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STRONG SHEARING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY WITH BROAD
MIDLEVEL RIDGING...HOWEVER DUE TO LINGERING ENERGY...INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FARTHER
EAST. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MEXICO INTO THE REGION. SLOW MOVEMENT
EASTWARD OF THE TROUGH WITH A CONTINUED STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS AND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS THEN PULLED TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE LIFTS
OUT OF THE REGION...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY. MAINTAINED BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. ALSO WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  75  86  76  84  /  10  10  30  20  30
VICTORIA          87  74  85  72  85  /  20  10  50  30  30
LAREDO            91  75  89  75  89  /  10  30  50  50  30
ALICE             89  75  88  75  88  /  10  10  40  30  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  30
COTULLA           89  73  86  73  87  /  20  30  50  50  40
KINGSVILLE        89  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  30  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 201153
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
653 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUE TO EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR BY MID MORNING
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ANTICIPATED GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 281
THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LGT WIND AGAIN TNGT WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 DRG THE 10-12Z THURSDAY
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA/MSA
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PER MSAS WAS APPROACHING NORTH
CENTRAL TX. CONCUR WITH NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
FRONT WL ENTER CNTRL TX THEN STALL NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES/2000-2500J/KG CAPE (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE
TO SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
SECTIONS. SCEC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SRN BAYS/COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW DECREASING TNGT/THURSDAY OWING TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT SWELL
PERIODS WL REMAIN BELOW MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STALLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOCUS AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY
EVENING TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STRONG SHEARING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY WITH BROAD
MIDLEVEL RIDGING...HOWEVER DUE TO LINGERING ENERGY...INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FARTHER
EAST. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MEXICO INTO THE REGION. SLOW MOVEMENT
EASTWARD OF THE TROUGH WITH A CONTINUED STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS AND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS THEN PULLED TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE LIFTS
OUT OF THE REGION...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY. MAINTAINED BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. ALSO WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  75  86  76  84  /  10  10  30  20  30
VICTORIA          87  74  85  72  85  /  20  10  50  30  30
LAREDO            91  75  89  75  89  /  10  30  50  50  30
ALICE             89  75  88  75  88  /  10  10  40  30  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  30
COTULLA           89  73  86  73  87  /  20  30  50  50  40
KINGSVILLE        89  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  30  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201153
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
653 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUE TO EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR BY MID MORNING
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ANTICIPATED GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 281
THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LGT WIND AGAIN TNGT WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 DRG THE 10-12Z THURSDAY
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA/MSA
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PER MSAS WAS APPROACHING NORTH
CENTRAL TX. CONCUR WITH NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
FRONT WL ENTER CNTRL TX THEN STALL NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES/2000-2500J/KG CAPE (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE
TO SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
SECTIONS. SCEC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SRN BAYS/COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW DECREASING TNGT/THURSDAY OWING TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT SWELL
PERIODS WL REMAIN BELOW MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STALLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOCUS AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY
EVENING TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STRONG SHEARING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY WITH BROAD
MIDLEVEL RIDGING...HOWEVER DUE TO LINGERING ENERGY...INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FARTHER
EAST. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MEXICO INTO THE REGION. SLOW MOVEMENT
EASTWARD OF THE TROUGH WITH A CONTINUED STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS AND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS THEN PULLED TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE LIFTS
OUT OF THE REGION...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY. MAINTAINED BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. ALSO WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  75  86  76  84  /  10  10  30  20  30
VICTORIA          87  74  85  72  85  /  20  10  50  30  30
LAREDO            91  75  89  75  89  /  10  30  50  50  30
ALICE             89  75  88  75  88  /  10  10  40  30  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  30
COTULLA           89  73  86  73  87  /  20  30  50  50  40
KINGSVILLE        89  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  30  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 201153
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
653 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUE TO EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR BY MID MORNING
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ANTICIPATED GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 281
THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LGT WIND AGAIN TNGT WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 DRG THE 10-12Z THURSDAY
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA/MSA
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PER MSAS WAS APPROACHING NORTH
CENTRAL TX. CONCUR WITH NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
FRONT WL ENTER CNTRL TX THEN STALL NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES/2000-2500J/KG CAPE (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE
TO SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
SECTIONS. SCEC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SRN BAYS/COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW DECREASING TNGT/THURSDAY OWING TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT SWELL
PERIODS WL REMAIN BELOW MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STALLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOCUS AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY
EVENING TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STRONG SHEARING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY WITH BROAD
MIDLEVEL RIDGING...HOWEVER DUE TO LINGERING ENERGY...INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FARTHER
EAST. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MEXICO INTO THE REGION. SLOW MOVEMENT
EASTWARD OF THE TROUGH WITH A CONTINUED STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS AND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS THEN PULLED TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE LIFTS
OUT OF THE REGION...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY. MAINTAINED BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. ALSO WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  75  86  76  84  /  10  10  30  20  30
VICTORIA          87  74  85  72  85  /  20  10  50  30  30
LAREDO            91  75  89  75  89  /  10  30  50  50  30
ALICE             89  75  88  75  88  /  10  10  40  30  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  30
COTULLA           89  73  86  73  87  /  20  30  50  50  40
KINGSVILLE        89  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  30  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 200945
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
445 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA/MSA
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PER MSAS WAS APPROACHING NORTH
CENTRAL TX. CONCUR WITH NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
FRONT WL ENTER CNTRL TX THEN STALL NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES/2000-2500J/KG CAPE (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE
TO SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
SECTIONS. SCEC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SRN BAYS/COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW DECREASING TNGT/THURSDAY OWING TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT SWELL
PERIODS WL REMAIN BELOW MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STALLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOCUS AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY
EVENING TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STRONG SHEARING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY WITH BROAD
MIDLEVEL RIDGING...HOWEVER DUE TO LINGERING ENERGY...INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FARTHER
EAST. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MEXICO INTO THE REGION. SLOW MOVEMENT
EASTWARD OF THE TROUGH WITH A CONTINUED STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS AND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS THEN PULLED TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE LIFTS
OUT OF THE REGION...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY. MAINTAINED BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. ALSO WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  75  86  76  84  /  10  10  30  20  30
VICTORIA          87  74  85  72  85  /  20  10  50  30  30
LAREDO            91  75  89  75  89  /  10  30  50  50  30
ALICE             89  75  88  75  88  /  10  10  40  30  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  30
COTULLA           89  73  86  73  87  /  20  30  50  50  40
KINGSVILLE        89  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  30  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 200945
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
445 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA/MSA
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PER MSAS WAS APPROACHING NORTH
CENTRAL TX. CONCUR WITH NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
FRONT WL ENTER CNTRL TX THEN STALL NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES/2000-2500J/KG CAPE (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE
TO SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
SECTIONS. SCEC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SRN BAYS/COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW DECREASING TNGT/THURSDAY OWING TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT SWELL
PERIODS WL REMAIN BELOW MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STALLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOCUS AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY
EVENING TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STRONG SHEARING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY WITH BROAD
MIDLEVEL RIDGING...HOWEVER DUE TO LINGERING ENERGY...INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FARTHER
EAST. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MEXICO INTO THE REGION. SLOW MOVEMENT
EASTWARD OF THE TROUGH WITH A CONTINUED STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS AND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS THEN PULLED TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE LIFTS
OUT OF THE REGION...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY. MAINTAINED BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. ALSO WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  75  86  76  84  /  10  10  30  20  30
VICTORIA          87  74  85  72  85  /  20  10  50  30  30
LAREDO            91  75  89  75  89  /  10  30  50  50  30
ALICE             89  75  88  75  88  /  10  10  40  30  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  30
COTULLA           89  73  86  73  87  /  20  30  50  50  40
KINGSVILLE        89  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  30  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 200945
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
445 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA/MSA
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PER MSAS WAS APPROACHING NORTH
CENTRAL TX. CONCUR WITH NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
FRONT WL ENTER CNTRL TX THEN STALL NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY/ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES/2000-2500J/KG CAPE (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE
TO SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
SECTIONS. SCEC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SRN BAYS/COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW DECREASING TNGT/THURSDAY OWING TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT SWELL
PERIODS WL REMAIN BELOW MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STALLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOCUS AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY
EVENING TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STRONG SHEARING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY WITH BROAD
MIDLEVEL RIDGING...HOWEVER DUE TO LINGERING ENERGY...INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FARTHER
EAST. A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MEXICO INTO THE REGION. SLOW MOVEMENT
EASTWARD OF THE TROUGH WITH A CONTINUED STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS AND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS THEN PULLED TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE LIFTS
OUT OF THE REGION...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY. MAINTAINED BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. ALSO WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  75  86  76  84  /  10  10  30  20  30
VICTORIA          87  74  85  72  85  /  20  10  50  30  30
LAREDO            91  75  89  75  89  /  10  30  50  50  30
ALICE             89  75  88  75  88  /  10  10  40  30  40
ROCKPORT          84  76  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  30
COTULLA           89  73  86  73  87  /  20  30  50  50  40
KINGSVILLE        89  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  30  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 200603
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
103 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREDOMINATE VFR BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...
ANTICIPATED GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 281 WEDNESDAY EVENING/EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO MODERATE LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS (AS WELL AS
DEVELOPING CAP AND 4 KM MODEL RUNS)...REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN
OVER THE RIO GRANDE AREA. ALSO...NUDGED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A
DEGREE AS EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
BUT MAYBE A TAD WARMER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT TO
CHANGE. MARINE PACKAGE LOOKS FINE. PRODUCT UPDATES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT PLOTS AND
OBSERVATIONS...AM GOING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH A FEW MODIFICATIONS. CONCERNING CIGS...AM GOING TO BRING THE
MVFR CIGS IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS YESTERDAY OVER TERMINALS. FOG
(MVFR IF THAT) IS A BIT TRICKIER...SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BE UP MORE AND WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO WITH MVFR BR AT KVCT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME...WITH TEMPO MVFR BR AT KALI WHERE JET IS A BIT BETTER
AND WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN EAST. OTHER THAN THAT...ABOUT THE
SAME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS AS TODAY
(ABOUT 14Z- 17Z)...WITH WINDS A BIT LESS GUSTY WEDNESDAY THAN
TODAY SINCE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE DAY. NO PRECIP IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...AS CAP IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS WANED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE
VICTORIA REGION...BUT HAVE STRUGGLED THUS FAR. ANTICIPATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT BEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS ON THE LOW
SIDE. SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN MCS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LATEST RUN OF
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W ZONES. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH LOW/MID 70S AREA WIDE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH TEXAS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE. EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH AN MCS IN OR NEAR THE
AREA BASED ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY
PROVIDE AMPLE INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.

NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FOCUS BRIEFLY SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS OFTEN
PROBLEMATIC. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BROADSCALE LIFT LOOK TO
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN THIS TIME PERIOD...ANY OR
ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO EXTEND AND WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  76  86  76  85  /  10  10  30  20  30
VICTORIA          86  74  85  72  84  /  20  10  50  20  30
LAREDO            92  75  91  75  91  /  10  30  50  50  20
ALICE             90  75  89  75  87  /  10  10  40  30  30
ROCKPORT          85  77  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20
COTULLA           89  74  86  73  87  /  20  30  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        89  76  87  75  86  /  10  10  30  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  83  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 200603
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
103 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREDOMINATE VFR BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...
ANTICIPATED GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 281 WEDNESDAY EVENING/EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO MODERATE LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS (AS WELL AS
DEVELOPING CAP AND 4 KM MODEL RUNS)...REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN
OVER THE RIO GRANDE AREA. ALSO...NUDGED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A
DEGREE AS EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
BUT MAYBE A TAD WARMER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT TO
CHANGE. MARINE PACKAGE LOOKS FINE. PRODUCT UPDATES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT PLOTS AND
OBSERVATIONS...AM GOING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH A FEW MODIFICATIONS. CONCERNING CIGS...AM GOING TO BRING THE
MVFR CIGS IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS YESTERDAY OVER TERMINALS. FOG
(MVFR IF THAT) IS A BIT TRICKIER...SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BE UP MORE AND WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO WITH MVFR BR AT KVCT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME...WITH TEMPO MVFR BR AT KALI WHERE JET IS A BIT BETTER
AND WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN EAST. OTHER THAN THAT...ABOUT THE
SAME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS AS TODAY
(ABOUT 14Z- 17Z)...WITH WINDS A BIT LESS GUSTY WEDNESDAY THAN
TODAY SINCE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE DAY. NO PRECIP IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...AS CAP IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS WANED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE
VICTORIA REGION...BUT HAVE STRUGGLED THUS FAR. ANTICIPATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT BEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS ON THE LOW
SIDE. SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN MCS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LATEST RUN OF
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W ZONES. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH LOW/MID 70S AREA WIDE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH TEXAS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE. EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH AN MCS IN OR NEAR THE
AREA BASED ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY
PROVIDE AMPLE INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.

NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FOCUS BRIEFLY SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS OFTEN
PROBLEMATIC. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BROADSCALE LIFT LOOK TO
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN THIS TIME PERIOD...ANY OR
ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO EXTEND AND WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  76  86  76  85  /  10  10  30  20  30
VICTORIA          86  74  85  72  84  /  20  10  50  20  30
LAREDO            92  75  91  75  91  /  10  30  50  50  20
ALICE             90  75  89  75  87  /  10  10  40  30  30
ROCKPORT          85  77  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20
COTULLA           89  74  86  73  87  /  20  30  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        89  76  87  75  86  /  10  10  30  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  83  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 200603
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
103 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREDOMINATE VFR BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...
ANTICIPATED GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 281 WEDNESDAY EVENING/EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO MODERATE LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS (AS WELL AS
DEVELOPING CAP AND 4 KM MODEL RUNS)...REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN
OVER THE RIO GRANDE AREA. ALSO...NUDGED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A
DEGREE AS EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
BUT MAYBE A TAD WARMER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT TO
CHANGE. MARINE PACKAGE LOOKS FINE. PRODUCT UPDATES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT PLOTS AND
OBSERVATIONS...AM GOING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH A FEW MODIFICATIONS. CONCERNING CIGS...AM GOING TO BRING THE
MVFR CIGS IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS YESTERDAY OVER TERMINALS. FOG
(MVFR IF THAT) IS A BIT TRICKIER...SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BE UP MORE AND WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO WITH MVFR BR AT KVCT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME...WITH TEMPO MVFR BR AT KALI WHERE JET IS A BIT BETTER
AND WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN EAST. OTHER THAN THAT...ABOUT THE
SAME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS AS TODAY
(ABOUT 14Z- 17Z)...WITH WINDS A BIT LESS GUSTY WEDNESDAY THAN
TODAY SINCE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE DAY. NO PRECIP IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...AS CAP IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS WANED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE
VICTORIA REGION...BUT HAVE STRUGGLED THUS FAR. ANTICIPATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT BEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS ON THE LOW
SIDE. SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN MCS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LATEST RUN OF
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W ZONES. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH LOW/MID 70S AREA WIDE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH TEXAS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE. EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH AN MCS IN OR NEAR THE
AREA BASED ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY
PROVIDE AMPLE INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.

NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FOCUS BRIEFLY SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS OFTEN
PROBLEMATIC. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BROADSCALE LIFT LOOK TO
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN THIS TIME PERIOD...ANY OR
ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO EXTEND AND WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  76  86  76  85  /  10  10  30  20  30
VICTORIA          86  74  85  72  84  /  20  10  50  20  30
LAREDO            92  75  91  75  91  /  10  30  50  50  20
ALICE             90  75  89  75  87  /  10  10  40  30  30
ROCKPORT          85  77  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20
COTULLA           89  74  86  73  87  /  20  30  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        89  76  87  75  86  /  10  10  30  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  83  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 200603
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
103 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREDOMINATE VFR BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...
ANTICIPATED GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 281 WEDNESDAY EVENING/EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING
TO MODERATE LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS (AS WELL AS
DEVELOPING CAP AND 4 KM MODEL RUNS)...REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN
OVER THE RIO GRANDE AREA. ALSO...NUDGED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A
DEGREE AS EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
BUT MAYBE A TAD WARMER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT TO
CHANGE. MARINE PACKAGE LOOKS FINE. PRODUCT UPDATES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT PLOTS AND
OBSERVATIONS...AM GOING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH A FEW MODIFICATIONS. CONCERNING CIGS...AM GOING TO BRING THE
MVFR CIGS IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS YESTERDAY OVER TERMINALS. FOG
(MVFR IF THAT) IS A BIT TRICKIER...SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BE UP MORE AND WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO WITH MVFR BR AT KVCT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME...WITH TEMPO MVFR BR AT KALI WHERE JET IS A BIT BETTER
AND WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN EAST. OTHER THAN THAT...ABOUT THE
SAME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS AS TODAY
(ABOUT 14Z- 17Z)...WITH WINDS A BIT LESS GUSTY WEDNESDAY THAN
TODAY SINCE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE DAY. NO PRECIP IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...AS CAP IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS WANED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE
VICTORIA REGION...BUT HAVE STRUGGLED THUS FAR. ANTICIPATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT BEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS ON THE LOW
SIDE. SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN MCS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LATEST RUN OF
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W ZONES. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH LOW/MID 70S AREA WIDE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH TEXAS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE. EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH AN MCS IN OR NEAR THE
AREA BASED ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY
PROVIDE AMPLE INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.

NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FOCUS BRIEFLY SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS OFTEN
PROBLEMATIC. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BROADSCALE LIFT LOOK TO
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN THIS TIME PERIOD...ANY OR
ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO EXTEND AND WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  76  86  76  85  /  10  10  30  20  30
VICTORIA          86  74  85  72  84  /  20  10  50  20  30
LAREDO            92  75  91  75  91  /  10  30  50  50  20
ALICE             90  75  89  75  87  /  10  10  40  30  30
ROCKPORT          85  77  84  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20
COTULLA           89  74  86  73  87  /  20  30  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        89  76  87  75  86  /  10  10  30  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       84  77  83  77  83  /  10  10  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 200229 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
929 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS (AS WELL AS
DEVELOPING CAP AND 4 KM MODEL RUNS)...REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN
OVER THE RIO GRANDE AREA. ALSO...NUDGED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A
DEGREE AS EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
BUT MAYBE A TAD WARMER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT TO
CHANGE. MARINE PACKAGE LOOKS FINE. PRODUCT UPDATES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT PLOTS AND
OBSERVATIONS...AM GOING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH A FEW MODIFICATIONS. CONCERNING CIGS...AM GOING TO BRING THE
MVFR CIGS IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS YESTERDAY OVER TERMINALS. FOG
(MVFR IF THAT) IS A BIT TRICKIER...SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BE UP MORE AND WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO WITH MVFR BR AT KVCT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME...WITH TEMPO MVFR BR AT KALI WHERE JET IS A BIT BETTER
AND WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN EAST. OTHER THAN THAT...ABOUT THE
SAME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS AS TODAY
(ABOUT 14Z- 17Z)...WITH WINDS A BIT LESS GUSTY WEDNESDAY THAN
TODAY SINCE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE DAY. NO PRECIP IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...AS CAP IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS WANED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE
VICTORIA REGION...BUT HAVE STRUGGLED THUS FAR. ANTICIPATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT BEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS ON THE LOW
SIDE. SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN MCS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LATEST RUN OF
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W ZONES. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH LOW/MID 70S AREA WIDE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH TEXAS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE. EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH AN MCS IN OR NEAR THE
AREA BASED ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY
PROVIDE AMPLE INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.

NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FOCUS BRIEFLY SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS OFTEN
PROBLEMATIC. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BROADSCALE LIFT LOOK TO
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN THIS TIME PERIOD...ANY OR
ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO EXTEND AND WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  86  76  86  76  /  10  10  10  30  20
VICTORIA          75  86  74  85  72  /  10  20  10  50  20
LAREDO            77  92  75  91  75  /  10  10  30  50  50
ALICE             76  90  75  89  75  /  10  10  10  40  30
ROCKPORT          79  85  77  84  77  /  10  10  10  30  20
COTULLA           75  89  74  86  73  /  10  20  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        78  89  76  87  75  /  10  10  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  84  77  83  77  /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM/SYNOPTIC/GRIDS/AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 200229 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
929 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS (AS WELL AS
DEVELOPING CAP AND 4 KM MODEL RUNS)...REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN
OVER THE RIO GRANDE AREA. ALSO...NUDGED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A
DEGREE AS EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
BUT MAYBE A TAD WARMER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT TO
CHANGE. MARINE PACKAGE LOOKS FINE. PRODUCT UPDATES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT PLOTS AND
OBSERVATIONS...AM GOING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH A FEW MODIFICATIONS. CONCERNING CIGS...AM GOING TO BRING THE
MVFR CIGS IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS YESTERDAY OVER TERMINALS. FOG
(MVFR IF THAT) IS A BIT TRICKIER...SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BE UP MORE AND WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO WITH MVFR BR AT KVCT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME...WITH TEMPO MVFR BR AT KALI WHERE JET IS A BIT BETTER
AND WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN EAST. OTHER THAN THAT...ABOUT THE
SAME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS AS TODAY
(ABOUT 14Z- 17Z)...WITH WINDS A BIT LESS GUSTY WEDNESDAY THAN
TODAY SINCE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE DAY. NO PRECIP IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...AS CAP IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS WANED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE
VICTORIA REGION...BUT HAVE STRUGGLED THUS FAR. ANTICIPATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT BEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS ON THE LOW
SIDE. SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN MCS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LATEST RUN OF
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W ZONES. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH LOW/MID 70S AREA WIDE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH TEXAS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE. EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH AN MCS IN OR NEAR THE
AREA BASED ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY
PROVIDE AMPLE INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.

NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FOCUS BRIEFLY SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS OFTEN
PROBLEMATIC. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BROADSCALE LIFT LOOK TO
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN THIS TIME PERIOD...ANY OR
ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO EXTEND AND WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  86  76  86  76  /  10  10  10  30  20
VICTORIA          75  86  74  85  72  /  10  20  10  50  20
LAREDO            77  92  75  91  75  /  10  10  30  50  50
ALICE             76  90  75  89  75  /  10  10  10  40  30
ROCKPORT          79  85  77  84  77  /  10  10  10  30  20
COTULLA           75  89  74  86  73  /  10  20  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        78  89  76  87  75  /  10  10  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  84  77  83  77  /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM/SYNOPTIC/GRIDS/AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 200229 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
929 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS (AS WELL AS
DEVELOPING CAP AND 4 KM MODEL RUNS)...REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN
OVER THE RIO GRANDE AREA. ALSO...NUDGED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A
DEGREE AS EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
BUT MAYBE A TAD WARMER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT TO
CHANGE. MARINE PACKAGE LOOKS FINE. PRODUCT UPDATES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT PLOTS AND
OBSERVATIONS...AM GOING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH A FEW MODIFICATIONS. CONCERNING CIGS...AM GOING TO BRING THE
MVFR CIGS IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS YESTERDAY OVER TERMINALS. FOG
(MVFR IF THAT) IS A BIT TRICKIER...SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BE UP MORE AND WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO WITH MVFR BR AT KVCT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME...WITH TEMPO MVFR BR AT KALI WHERE JET IS A BIT BETTER
AND WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN EAST. OTHER THAN THAT...ABOUT THE
SAME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS AS TODAY
(ABOUT 14Z- 17Z)...WITH WINDS A BIT LESS GUSTY WEDNESDAY THAN
TODAY SINCE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE DAY. NO PRECIP IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...AS CAP IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS WANED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE
VICTORIA REGION...BUT HAVE STRUGGLED THUS FAR. ANTICIPATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT BEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS ON THE LOW
SIDE. SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN MCS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LATEST RUN OF
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W ZONES. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH LOW/MID 70S AREA WIDE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH TEXAS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE. EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH AN MCS IN OR NEAR THE
AREA BASED ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY
PROVIDE AMPLE INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.

NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FOCUS BRIEFLY SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS OFTEN
PROBLEMATIC. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BROADSCALE LIFT LOOK TO
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN THIS TIME PERIOD...ANY OR
ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO EXTEND AND WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  86  76  86  76  /  10  10  10  30  20
VICTORIA          75  86  74  85  72  /  10  20  10  50  20
LAREDO            77  92  75  91  75  /  10  10  30  50  50
ALICE             76  90  75  89  75  /  10  10  10  40  30
ROCKPORT          79  85  77  84  77  /  10  10  10  30  20
COTULLA           75  89  74  86  73  /  10  20  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        78  89  76  87  75  /  10  10  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  84  77  83  77  /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM/SYNOPTIC/GRIDS/AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 200229 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
929 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS (AS WELL AS
DEVELOPING CAP AND 4 KM MODEL RUNS)...REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN
OVER THE RIO GRANDE AREA. ALSO...NUDGED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A
DEGREE AS EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
BUT MAYBE A TAD WARMER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT TO
CHANGE. MARINE PACKAGE LOOKS FINE. PRODUCT UPDATES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT PLOTS AND
OBSERVATIONS...AM GOING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH A FEW MODIFICATIONS. CONCERNING CIGS...AM GOING TO BRING THE
MVFR CIGS IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS YESTERDAY OVER TERMINALS. FOG
(MVFR IF THAT) IS A BIT TRICKIER...SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BE UP MORE AND WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO WITH MVFR BR AT KVCT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME...WITH TEMPO MVFR BR AT KALI WHERE JET IS A BIT BETTER
AND WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN EAST. OTHER THAN THAT...ABOUT THE
SAME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS AS TODAY
(ABOUT 14Z- 17Z)...WITH WINDS A BIT LESS GUSTY WEDNESDAY THAN
TODAY SINCE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE DAY. NO PRECIP IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...AS CAP IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS WANED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE
VICTORIA REGION...BUT HAVE STRUGGLED THUS FAR. ANTICIPATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT BEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS ON THE LOW
SIDE. SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN MCS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LATEST RUN OF
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W ZONES. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH LOW/MID 70S AREA WIDE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH TEXAS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE. EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH AN MCS IN OR NEAR THE
AREA BASED ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY
PROVIDE AMPLE INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.

NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FOCUS BRIEFLY SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS OFTEN
PROBLEMATIC. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BROADSCALE LIFT LOOK TO
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN THIS TIME PERIOD...ANY OR
ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO EXTEND AND WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  86  76  86  76  /  10  10  10  30  20
VICTORIA          75  86  74  85  72  /  10  20  10  50  20
LAREDO            77  92  75  91  75  /  10  10  30  50  50
ALICE             76  90  75  89  75  /  10  10  10  40  30
ROCKPORT          79  85  77  84  77  /  10  10  10  30  20
COTULLA           75  89  74  86  73  /  10  20  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        78  89  76  87  75  /  10  10  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  84  77  83  77  /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM/SYNOPTIC/GRIDS/AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 192338 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT PLOTS AND
OBSERVATIONS...AM GOING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH A FEW MODIFICATIONS. CONCERNING CIGS...AM GOING TO BRING THE
MVFR CIGS IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS YESTERDAY OVER TERMINALS. FOG
(MVFR IF THAT) IS A BIT TRICKIER...SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BE UP MORE AND WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO WITH MVFR BR AT KVCT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME...WITH TEMPO MVFR BR AT KALI WHERE JET IS A BIT BETTER
AND WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN EAST. OTHER THAN THAT...ABOUT THE
SAME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS AS TODAY
(ABOUT 14Z- 17Z)...WITH WINDS A BIT LESS GUSTY WEDNESDAY THAN
TODAY SINCE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE DAY. NO PRECIP IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...AS CAP IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS WANED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE
VICTORIA REGION...BUT HAVE STRUGGLED THUS FAR. ANTICIPATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT BEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS ON THE LOW
SIDE. SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN MCS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LATEST RUN OF
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W ZONES. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH LOW/MID 70S AREA WIDE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH TEXAS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE. EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH AN MCS IN OR NEAR THE
AREA BASED ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY
PROVIDE AMPLE INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.

NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FOCUS BRIEFLY SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS OFTEN
PROBLEMATIC. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BROADSCALE LIFT LOOK TO
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN THIS TIME PERIOD...ANY OR
ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO EXTEND AND WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  86  76  86  76  /  10  10  10  30  20
VICTORIA          74  86  74  85  72  /  10  20  10  50  20
LAREDO            76  92  75  91  75  /  10  10  30  50  50
ALICE             75  90  75  89  75  /  10  10  10  40  30
ROCKPORT          78  85  77  84  77  /  10  10  10  30  20
COTULLA           74  89  74  86  73  /  20  20  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        77  89  76  87  75  /  10  10  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  84  77  83  77  /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 191956
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
256 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS WANED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE
VICTORIA REGION...BUT HAVE STRUGGLED THUS FAR. ANTICIPATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT BEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS ON THE LOW
SIDE. SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN MCS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LATEST RUN OF
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W ZONES. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH LOW/MID 70S AREA WIDE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH TEXAS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE. EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH AN MCS IN OR NEAR THE
AREA BASED ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY
PROVIDE AMPLE INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.

NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FOCUS BRIEFLY SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS OFTEN
PROBLEMATIC. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BROADSCALE LIFT LOOK TO
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN THIS TIME PERIOD...ANY OR
ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO EXTEND AND WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  10  30  20
VICTORIA          75  87  73  85  72  /  10  20  10  50  20
LAREDO            77  94  75  90  75  /  10  10  30  50  50
ALICE             75  90  75  89  75  /  10  10  10  40  30
ROCKPORT          78  86  77  84  77  /  10  10  10  30  20
COTULLA           74  90  73  86  73  /  20  20  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        76  90  76  87  75  /  10  10  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  77  83  77  /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 191956
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
256 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS WANED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE
VICTORIA REGION...BUT HAVE STRUGGLED THUS FAR. ANTICIPATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT BEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS ON THE LOW
SIDE. SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN MCS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LATEST RUN OF
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W ZONES. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH LOW/MID 70S AREA WIDE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH TEXAS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE. EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH AN MCS IN OR NEAR THE
AREA BASED ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY
PROVIDE AMPLE INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.

NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FOCUS BRIEFLY SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS OFTEN
PROBLEMATIC. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BROADSCALE LIFT LOOK TO
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN THIS TIME PERIOD...ANY OR
ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO EXTEND AND WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  10  30  20
VICTORIA          75  87  73  85  72  /  10  20  10  50  20
LAREDO            77  94  75  90  75  /  10  10  30  50  50
ALICE             75  90  75  89  75  /  10  10  10  40  30
ROCKPORT          78  86  77  84  77  /  10  10  10  30  20
COTULLA           74  90  73  86  73  /  20  20  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        76  90  76  87  75  /  10  10  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  77  83  77  /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191750 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD APPROACH THE LRD THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS REMARKS IN THE LRD TAF.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WITH AT TIMES
BREEZY SELY WINDS. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND WILL PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND 14Z/15Z WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR MADE THIS
MORNING. MAINLY UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SW TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF WEBB COUNTY. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK WITH LOWER 90S
OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ALSO...ADDED POPS TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A
MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
LRD THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WANE AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD THE VCT SITE
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  10  30  20
VICTORIA          75  87  73  85  72  /  10  20  10  50  20
LAREDO            77  94  75  90  75  /  10  10  30  50  50
ALICE             75  90  75  89  75  /  10  10  10  40  30
ROCKPORT          78  86  77  84  77  /  10  10  10  30  20
COTULLA           74  90  73  86  73  /  20  20  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        76  90  76  87  75  /  10  10  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  77  83  77  /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191750 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD APPROACH THE LRD THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS REMARKS IN THE LRD TAF.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WITH AT TIMES
BREEZY SELY WINDS. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND WILL PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND 14Z/15Z WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR MADE THIS
MORNING. MAINLY UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SW TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF WEBB COUNTY. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK WITH LOWER 90S
OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ALSO...ADDED POPS TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A
MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
LRD THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WANE AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD THE VCT SITE
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  10  30  20
VICTORIA          75  87  73  85  72  /  10  20  10  50  20
LAREDO            77  94  75  90  75  /  10  10  30  50  50
ALICE             75  90  75  89  75  /  10  10  10  40  30
ROCKPORT          78  86  77  84  77  /  10  10  10  30  20
COTULLA           74  90  73  86  73  /  20  20  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        76  90  76  87  75  /  10  10  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  77  83  77  /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 191750 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD APPROACH THE LRD THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS REMARKS IN THE LRD TAF.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WITH AT TIMES
BREEZY SELY WINDS. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND WILL PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND 14Z/15Z WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR MADE THIS
MORNING. MAINLY UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SW TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF WEBB COUNTY. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK WITH LOWER 90S
OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ALSO...ADDED POPS TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A
MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
LRD THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WANE AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD THE VCT SITE
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  10  30  20
VICTORIA          75  87  73  85  72  /  10  20  10  50  20
LAREDO            77  94  75  90  75  /  10  10  30  50  50
ALICE             75  90  75  89  75  /  10  10  10  40  30
ROCKPORT          78  86  77  84  77  /  10  10  10  30  20
COTULLA           74  90  73  86  73  /  20  20  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        76  90  76  87  75  /  10  10  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  77  83  77  /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191750 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD APPROACH THE LRD THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS REMARKS IN THE LRD TAF.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WITH AT TIMES
BREEZY SELY WINDS. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND WILL PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND 14Z/15Z WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR MADE THIS
MORNING. MAINLY UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SW TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF WEBB COUNTY. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK WITH LOWER 90S
OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ALSO...ADDED POPS TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A
MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
LRD THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WANE AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD THE VCT SITE
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  10  30  20
VICTORIA          75  87  73  85  72  /  10  20  10  50  20
LAREDO            77  94  75  90  75  /  10  10  30  50  50
ALICE             75  90  75  89  75  /  10  10  10  40  30
ROCKPORT          78  86  77  84  77  /  10  10  10  30  20
COTULLA           74  90  73  86  73  /  20  20  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        76  90  76  87  75  /  10  10  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  77  83  77  /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 191624 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR MADE THIS
MORNING. MAINLY UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SW TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF WEBB COUNTY. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK WITH LOWER 90S
OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ALSO...ADDED POPS TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A
MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
LRD THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WANE AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD THE VCT SITE
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  77  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          87  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  20  10  50
LAREDO            94  77  94  75  90  /  20  10  10  30  50
ALICE             90  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
ROCKPORT          86  78  86  77  84  /  20  10  10  10  30
COTULLA           92  74  90  73  86  /  20  20  20  30  50
KINGSVILLE        90  76  90  76  87  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  77  83  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 191624 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR MADE THIS
MORNING. MAINLY UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SW TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF WEBB COUNTY. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK WITH LOWER 90S
OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ALSO...ADDED POPS TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A
MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
LRD THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WANE AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD THE VCT SITE
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  77  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          87  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  20  10  50
LAREDO            94  77  94  75  90  /  20  10  10  30  50
ALICE             90  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
ROCKPORT          86  78  86  77  84  /  20  10  10  10  30
COTULLA           92  74  90  73  86  /  20  20  20  30  50
KINGSVILLE        90  76  90  76  87  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  77  83  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191624 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR MADE THIS
MORNING. MAINLY UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SW TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF WEBB COUNTY. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK WITH LOWER 90S
OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ALSO...ADDED POPS TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A
MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
LRD THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WANE AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD THE VCT SITE
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  77  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          87  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  20  10  50
LAREDO            94  77  94  75  90  /  20  10  10  30  50
ALICE             90  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
ROCKPORT          86  78  86  77  84  /  20  10  10  10  30
COTULLA           92  74  90  73  86  /  20  20  20  30  50
KINGSVILLE        90  76  90  76  87  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  77  83  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 191624 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR MADE THIS
MORNING. MAINLY UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SW TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF WEBB COUNTY. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK WITH LOWER 90S
OUT WEST WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ALSO...ADDED POPS TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A
MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
LRD THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WANE AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD THE VCT SITE
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  77  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          87  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  20  10  50
LAREDO            94  77  94  75  90  /  20  10  10  30  50
ALICE             90  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
ROCKPORT          86  78  86  77  84  /  20  10  10  10  30
COTULLA           92  74  90  73  86  /  20  20  20  30  50
KINGSVILLE        90  76  90  76  87  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  77  83  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191150 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ALSO...ADDED POPS TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A
MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
LRD THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WANE AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD THE VCT SITE
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  77  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          87  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  20  10  50
LAREDO            94  77  94  75  90  /  20  10  10  30  50
ALICE             90  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
ROCKPORT          86  78  86  77  84  /  20  10  10  10  30
COTULLA           92  74  90  73  86  /  20  20  20  30  50
KINGSVILLE        90  76  90  76  87  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  77  83  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 191150 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ALSO...ADDED POPS TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A
MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
LRD THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WANE AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD THE VCT SITE
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  77  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          87  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  20  10  50
LAREDO            94  77  94  75  90  /  20  10  10  30  50
ALICE             90  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
ROCKPORT          86  78  86  77  84  /  20  10  10  10  30
COTULLA           92  74  90  73  86  /  20  20  20  30  50
KINGSVILLE        90  76  90  76  87  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  77  83  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 191150 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ALSO...ADDED POPS TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A
MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
LRD THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WANE AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD THE VCT SITE
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  77  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          87  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  20  10  50
LAREDO            94  77  94  75  90  /  20  10  10  30  50
ALICE             90  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
ROCKPORT          86  78  86  77  84  /  20  10  10  10  30
COTULLA           92  74  90  73  86  /  20  20  20  30  50
KINGSVILLE        90  76  90  76  87  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  77  83  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191150 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ALSO...ADDED POPS TO LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A
MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
LRD THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WANE AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD THE VCT SITE
WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE RESIDES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  77  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          87  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  20  10  50
LAREDO            94  77  94  75  90  /  20  10  10  30  50
ALICE             90  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
ROCKPORT          86  78  86  77  84  /  20  10  10  10  30
COTULLA           92  74  90  73  86  /  20  20  20  30  50
KINGSVILLE        90  76  90  76  87  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  77  83  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 190952
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  77  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          87  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  20  10  50
LAREDO            94  77  94  75  90  /  20  10  10  30  50
ALICE             90  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
ROCKPORT          86  78  86  77  84  /  20  10  10  10  30
COTULLA           92  74  90  73  86  /  20  20  20  30  50
KINGSVILLE        90  76  90  76  87  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  77  83  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 190952
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
452 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION
WEST ACROSS MEXICO HAS WANED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HI-RES AND TX TECH WRF
MODELS ARE HANDLING DEVELOPMENT WELL...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS
COVERAGE...KEEPING THE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS SHOWERS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE
EXCEPTION RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AS BROAD RIDGING SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT
IS NOT TO SAY CONVECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE POINT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. A REPEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF SURFACE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUE WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF MCS STAYS ORGANIZED MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY
FRIDAY AND REGION SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP 20-30 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF TROUGH DEEPENS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/COAHUILA REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
HIGHER MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SHOWED POPS 50-60
PERCENT. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  77  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          87  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  20  10  50
LAREDO            94  77  94  75  90  /  20  10  10  30  50
ALICE             90  75  90  75  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
ROCKPORT          86  78  86  77  84  /  20  10  10  10  30
COTULLA           92  74  90  73  86  /  20  20  20  30  50
KINGSVILLE        90  76  90  76  87  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  77  83  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM





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