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000
FXUS64 KCRP 181137 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FROM VFR AT
ALI/CRP TO MVFR AT VCT...AND LIFR AT LRD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED FOR
NOW VCTS AT ALI/VCT/CRP. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR/VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY...PERHAPS LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEATHER IS MUCH MORE QUIET
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AS STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE MARINE AREAS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHS
PLAINS. AT THE SFC...TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE PANHANDLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BIG BEND INTO MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF UPPER LOW...SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERING AFTER LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION...WITH SBCAPES
AOA 2000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY HAZARDS
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...GFS THE STRONGEST WITH THE FRONT...ECMWF RATHER WEAK. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OFF AND ON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HAVE MAINLY CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD AS THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNALS TO FOCUS ON TO GIVE A
MORE CLEAR PICTURE. AFTER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH PWAT VALUES BACK UP OVER
1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY...AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE WEAK. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  68  86  68  77  /  50  30  20  20  30
VICTORIA          82  66  87  62  76  /  50  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            89  67  92  67  78  /  30  20  20  20  30
ALICE             85  67  89  67  78  /  50  30  20  20  30
ROCKPORT          78  70  80  68  75  /  50  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           86  65  91  64  77  /  40  20  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        85  68  88  68  78  /  50  30  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  69  80  69  75  /  50  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 180914
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
414 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEATHER IS MUCH MORE QUIET
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AS STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE MARINE AREAS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHS
PLAINS. AT THE SFC...TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE PANHANDLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BIG BEND INTO MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF UPPER LOW...SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERING AFTER LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION...WITH SBCAPES
AOA 2000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY HAZARDS
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...GFS THE STRONGEST WITH THE FRONT...ECMWF RATHER WEAK. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OFF AND ON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HAVE MAINLY CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD AS THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNALS TO FOCUS ON TO GIVE A
MORE CLEAR PICTURE. AFTER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH PWAT VALUES BACK UP OVER
1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY...AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE WEAK. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  68  86  68  77  /  50  30  20  20  30
VICTORIA          82  66  87  62  76  /  50  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            89  67  92  67  78  /  30  20  20  20  30
ALICE             85  67  89  67  78  /  50  30  20  20  30
ROCKPORT          78  70  80  68  75  /  50  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           86  65  91  64  77  /  40  20  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        85  68  88  68  78  /  50  30  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  69  80  69  75  /  50  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180914
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
414 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEATHER IS MUCH MORE QUIET
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AS STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE MARINE AREAS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHS
PLAINS. AT THE SFC...TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE PANHANDLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BIG BEND INTO MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF UPPER LOW...SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERING AFTER LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION...WITH SBCAPES
AOA 2000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY HAZARDS
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...GFS THE STRONGEST WITH THE FRONT...ECMWF RATHER WEAK. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OFF AND ON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HAVE MAINLY CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD AS THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNALS TO FOCUS ON TO GIVE A
MORE CLEAR PICTURE. AFTER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH PWAT VALUES BACK UP OVER
1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY...AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE WEAK. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  68  86  68  77  /  50  30  20  20  30
VICTORIA          82  66  87  62  76  /  50  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            89  67  92  67  78  /  30  20  20  20  30
ALICE             85  67  89  67  78  /  50  30  20  20  30
ROCKPORT          78  70  80  68  75  /  50  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           86  65  91  64  77  /  40  20  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        85  68  88  68  78  /  50  30  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  69  80  69  75  /  50  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 180534
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF ALL TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR CRP/VCT FOR A BIT LONGER. COULD STILL SEE
SOME FOG SET IN FOR MOST SITES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
SEE IMPROVING CIGS ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALI EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...TORNADO WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. STRONGEST STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE GULF
WATERS. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO REFLECT HEADLINE CANCELLATIONS
AND UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS UNTIL 07Z SAT. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL AT LEAST ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 06-12Z SATURDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DRG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  67  86  68  79  /  50  30  20  20  30
VICTORIA          80  65  85  63  79  /  50  30  10  20  20
LAREDO            88  66  90  67  82  /  30  20  10  30  30
ALICE             84  66  89  67  80  /  50  30  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          77  69  81  69  76  /  50  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           85  64  90  64  80  /  40  20  10  20  30
KINGSVILLE        84  67  88  68  80  /  50  30  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       77  68  80  70  76  /  50  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180534
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF ALL TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR CRP/VCT FOR A BIT LONGER. COULD STILL SEE
SOME FOG SET IN FOR MOST SITES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
SEE IMPROVING CIGS ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALI EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...TORNADO WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. STRONGEST STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE GULF
WATERS. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO REFLECT HEADLINE CANCELLATIONS
AND UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS UNTIL 07Z SAT. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL AT LEAST ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 06-12Z SATURDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DRG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  67  86  68  79  /  50  30  20  20  30
VICTORIA          80  65  85  63  79  /  50  30  10  20  20
LAREDO            88  66  90  67  82  /  30  20  10  30  30
ALICE             84  66  89  67  80  /  50  30  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          77  69  81  69  76  /  50  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           85  64  90  64  80  /  40  20  10  20  30
KINGSVILLE        84  67  88  68  80  /  50  30  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       77  68  80  70  76  /  50  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 180534
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF ALL TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR CRP/VCT FOR A BIT LONGER. COULD STILL SEE
SOME FOG SET IN FOR MOST SITES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
SEE IMPROVING CIGS ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALI EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...TORNADO WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. STRONGEST STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE GULF
WATERS. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO REFLECT HEADLINE CANCELLATIONS
AND UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS UNTIL 07Z SAT. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL AT LEAST ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 06-12Z SATURDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DRG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  67  86  68  79  /  50  30  20  20  30
VICTORIA          80  65  85  63  79  /  50  30  10  20  20
LAREDO            88  66  90  67  82  /  30  20  10  30  30
ALICE             84  66  89  67  80  /  50  30  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          77  69  81  69  76  /  50  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           85  64  90  64  80  /  40  20  10  20  30
KINGSVILLE        84  67  88  68  80  /  50  30  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       77  68  80  70  76  /  50  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 180534
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF ALL TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR CRP/VCT FOR A BIT LONGER. COULD STILL SEE
SOME FOG SET IN FOR MOST SITES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
SEE IMPROVING CIGS ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALI EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...TORNADO WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. STRONGEST STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE GULF
WATERS. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO REFLECT HEADLINE CANCELLATIONS
AND UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS UNTIL 07Z SAT. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL AT LEAST ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 06-12Z SATURDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DRG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  67  86  68  79  /  50  30  20  20  30
VICTORIA          80  65  85  63  79  /  50  30  10  20  20
LAREDO            88  66  90  67  82  /  30  20  10  30  30
ALICE             84  66  89  67  80  /  50  30  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          77  69  81  69  76  /  50  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           85  64  90  64  80  /  40  20  10  20  30
KINGSVILLE        84  67  88  68  80  /  50  30  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       77  68  80  70  76  /  50  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180518 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1218 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...TORNADO WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. STRONGEST STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE GULF
WATERS. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO REFLECT HEADLINE CANCELLATIONS
AND UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS UNTIL 07Z SAT. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL AT LEAST ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 06-12Z SATURDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DRG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  67  86  68  79  /  50  30  20  20  30
VICTORIA          80  65  85  63  79  /  50  30  10  20  20
LAREDO            88  66  90  67  82  /  30  20  10  30  30
ALICE             84  66  89  67  80  /  50  30  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          77  69  81  69  76  /  50  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           85  64  90  64  80  /  40  20  10  20  30
KINGSVILLE        84  67  88  68  80  /  50  30  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       77  68  80  70  76  /  50  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 180518 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1218 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...TORNADO WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. STRONGEST STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE GULF
WATERS. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO REFLECT HEADLINE CANCELLATIONS
AND UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS UNTIL 07Z SAT. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL AT LEAST ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 06-12Z SATURDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DRG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  67  86  68  79  /  50  30  20  20  30
VICTORIA          80  65  85  63  79  /  50  30  10  20  20
LAREDO            88  66  90  67  82  /  30  20  10  30  30
ALICE             84  66  89  67  80  /  50  30  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          77  69  81  69  76  /  50  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           85  64  90  64  80  /  40  20  10  20  30
KINGSVILLE        84  67  88  68  80  /  50  30  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       77  68  80  70  76  /  50  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180029
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
729 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS UNTIL 07Z SAT. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL AT LEAST ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 06-12Z SATURDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DRG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  82  67  86  68  /  70  50  30  20  20
VICTORIA          68  80  65  85  63  /  80  50  30  10  20
LAREDO            69  88  66  90  67  /  50  30  20  10  30
ALICE             70  84  66  89  67  /  70  50  30  10  20
ROCKPORT          71  77  69  81  69  /  70  50  30  20  20
COTULLA           65  85  64  90  64  /  80  40  20  10  20
KINGSVILLE        71  84  67  88  68  /  70  50  30  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       72  77  68  80  70  /  70  50  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180029
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
729 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS UNTIL 07Z SAT. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL AT LEAST ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 06-12Z SATURDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DRG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  82  67  86  68  /  70  50  30  20  20
VICTORIA          68  80  65  85  63  /  80  50  30  10  20
LAREDO            69  88  66  90  67  /  50  30  20  10  30
ALICE             70  84  66  89  67  /  70  50  30  10  20
ROCKPORT          71  77  69  81  69  /  70  50  30  20  20
COTULLA           65  85  64  90  64  /  80  40  20  10  20
KINGSVILLE        71  84  67  88  68  /  70  50  30  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       72  77  68  80  70  /  70  50  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180029
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
729 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS UNTIL 07Z SAT. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL AT LEAST ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 06-12Z SATURDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DRG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  82  67  86  68  /  70  50  30  20  20
VICTORIA          68  80  65  85  63  /  80  50  30  10  20
LAREDO            69  88  66  90  67  /  50  30  20  10  30
ALICE             70  84  66  89  67  /  70  50  30  10  20
ROCKPORT          71  77  69  81  69  /  70  50  30  20  20
COTULLA           65  85  64  90  64  /  80  40  20  10  20
KINGSVILLE        71  84  67  88  68  /  70  50  30  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       72  77  68  80  70  /  70  50  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 172041
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.




&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  80  80  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  10
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  10
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  80  80  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

99...SHORT TERM
99...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 172041
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.




&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  80  80  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  10
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  10
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  80  80  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

99...SHORT TERM
99...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 172041
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.




&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  80  80  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  10
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  10
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  80  80  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

99...SHORT TERM
99...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 172041
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.




&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  80  80  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  10
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  10
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  80  80  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

99...SHORT TERM
99...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 171732
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1232 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WEBB...LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM CDT. AN ENHANCED
RISK CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS AS PREVAILING CIGS LIFT...HOWEVER TSRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS S TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR STORMS AT TIMES. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. PREVAILING CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING
TO MVFR LEVELS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION DVLPG AND INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE LIKELIEST CHCS ACROSS THE N CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND S TX TODAY. THE INSTABILITY AND UPPER DYNAMICS
COMBINED WITH ANY OUTFLOW BDRIES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR
STORMS. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS S TX IN AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SVR STORMS TODAY. THE HIGHER PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE E HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA AND DUE TO THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NE
CWA TODAY. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FROM VFR TO
IFR/LIFR WITH LOW CLOUDS AT ALI/CRP. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING. OTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
REMARKS AT THE TERMINALS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT VCT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER
ABOUT CHANCES OF STORMS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW TODAY MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET NEARBY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN SBCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NW
OF THE AREA AND PROPAGATE TO E AND ESE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A
MCS. PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST DEPENDING ON
ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT MAY TAKE PLACE. ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS OF HEAVIER RAIN
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THESE
AREAS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED BOTH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY
RAIN IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND BASE OF
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY HAZARDS AGAIN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS IS OUTLOOKED FOR AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK BOUNDARY ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. UPPER JET IS ALSO BEGINNING TO NOSE BACK
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH NO DECREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DAILY. UPPER LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND A BIT OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AT 250MB LEVEL...THUS ENDING ANY JET DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE COULD SEE A
BRIEF DRIER PERIOD AS SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH FEWER
CLOUDS AND LESS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 90S
WEST. CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER WARM UP LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  70  70  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  20
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  20
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  60  40  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 171732
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1232 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WEBB...LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM CDT. AN ENHANCED
RISK CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS AS PREVAILING CIGS LIFT...HOWEVER TSRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS S TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR STORMS AT TIMES. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. PREVAILING CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING
TO MVFR LEVELS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION DVLPG AND INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE LIKELIEST CHCS ACROSS THE N CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND S TX TODAY. THE INSTABILITY AND UPPER DYNAMICS
COMBINED WITH ANY OUTFLOW BDRIES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR
STORMS. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS S TX IN AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SVR STORMS TODAY. THE HIGHER PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE E HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA AND DUE TO THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NE
CWA TODAY. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FROM VFR TO
IFR/LIFR WITH LOW CLOUDS AT ALI/CRP. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING. OTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
REMARKS AT THE TERMINALS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT VCT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER
ABOUT CHANCES OF STORMS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW TODAY MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET NEARBY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN SBCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NW
OF THE AREA AND PROPAGATE TO E AND ESE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A
MCS. PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST DEPENDING ON
ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT MAY TAKE PLACE. ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS OF HEAVIER RAIN
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THESE
AREAS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED BOTH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY
RAIN IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND BASE OF
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY HAZARDS AGAIN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS IS OUTLOOKED FOR AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK BOUNDARY ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. UPPER JET IS ALSO BEGINNING TO NOSE BACK
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH NO DECREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DAILY. UPPER LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND A BIT OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AT 250MB LEVEL...THUS ENDING ANY JET DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE COULD SEE A
BRIEF DRIER PERIOD AS SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH FEWER
CLOUDS AND LESS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 90S
WEST. CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER WARM UP LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  70  70  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  20
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  20
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  60  40  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 171732
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1232 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WEBB...LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM CDT. AN ENHANCED
RISK CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS AS PREVAILING CIGS LIFT...HOWEVER TSRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS S TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR STORMS AT TIMES. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. PREVAILING CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING
TO MVFR LEVELS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION DVLPG AND INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE LIKELIEST CHCS ACROSS THE N CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND S TX TODAY. THE INSTABILITY AND UPPER DYNAMICS
COMBINED WITH ANY OUTFLOW BDRIES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR
STORMS. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS S TX IN AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SVR STORMS TODAY. THE HIGHER PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE E HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA AND DUE TO THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NE
CWA TODAY. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FROM VFR TO
IFR/LIFR WITH LOW CLOUDS AT ALI/CRP. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING. OTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
REMARKS AT THE TERMINALS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT VCT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER
ABOUT CHANCES OF STORMS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW TODAY MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET NEARBY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN SBCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NW
OF THE AREA AND PROPAGATE TO E AND ESE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A
MCS. PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST DEPENDING ON
ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT MAY TAKE PLACE. ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS OF HEAVIER RAIN
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THESE
AREAS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED BOTH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY
RAIN IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND BASE OF
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY HAZARDS AGAIN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS IS OUTLOOKED FOR AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK BOUNDARY ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. UPPER JET IS ALSO BEGINNING TO NOSE BACK
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH NO DECREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DAILY. UPPER LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND A BIT OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AT 250MB LEVEL...THUS ENDING ANY JET DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE COULD SEE A
BRIEF DRIER PERIOD AS SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH FEWER
CLOUDS AND LESS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 90S
WEST. CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER WARM UP LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  70  70  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  20
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  20
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  60  40  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 171401
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
901 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION DVLPG AND INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE LIKELIEST CHCS ACROSS THE N CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND S TX TODAY. THE INSTABILITY AND UPPER DYNAMICS
COMBINED WITH ANY OUTFLOW BDRIES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR
STORMS. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS S TX IN AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SVR STORMS TODAY. THE HIGHER PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE E HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA AND DUE TO THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NE
CWA TODAY. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FROM VFR TO
IFR/LIFR WITH LOW CLOUDS AT ALI/CRP. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING. OTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
REMARKS AT THE TERMINALS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT VCT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER
ABOUT CHANCES OF STORMS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW TODAY MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET NEARBY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN SBCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NW
OF THE AREA AND PROPAGATE TO E AND ESE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A
MCS. PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST DEPENDING ON
ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT MAY TAKE PLACE. ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS OF HEAVIER RAIN
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THESE
AREAS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED BOTH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY
RAIN IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND BASE OF
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY HAZARDS AGAIN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS IS OUTLOOKED FOR AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK BOUNDARY ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. UPPER JET IS ALSO BEGINNING TO NOSE BACK
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH NO DECREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DAILY. UPPER LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND A BIT OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AT 250MB LEVEL...THUS ENDING ANY JET DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE COULD SEE A
BRIEF DRIER PERIOD AS SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH FEWER
CLOUDS AND LESS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 90S
WEST. CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER WARM UP LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  70  70  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  20
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  20
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  60  40  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 171401
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
901 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION DVLPG AND INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE LIKELIEST CHCS ACROSS THE N CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND S TX TODAY. THE INSTABILITY AND UPPER DYNAMICS
COMBINED WITH ANY OUTFLOW BDRIES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR
STORMS. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS S TX IN AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SVR STORMS TODAY. THE HIGHER PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE E HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA AND DUE TO THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NE
CWA TODAY. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FROM VFR TO
IFR/LIFR WITH LOW CLOUDS AT ALI/CRP. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING. OTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
REMARKS AT THE TERMINALS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT VCT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER
ABOUT CHANCES OF STORMS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW TODAY MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET NEARBY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN SBCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NW
OF THE AREA AND PROPAGATE TO E AND ESE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A
MCS. PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST DEPENDING ON
ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT MAY TAKE PLACE. ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS OF HEAVIER RAIN
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THESE
AREAS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED BOTH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY
RAIN IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND BASE OF
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY HAZARDS AGAIN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS IS OUTLOOKED FOR AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK BOUNDARY ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. UPPER JET IS ALSO BEGINNING TO NOSE BACK
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH NO DECREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DAILY. UPPER LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND A BIT OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AT 250MB LEVEL...THUS ENDING ANY JET DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE COULD SEE A
BRIEF DRIER PERIOD AS SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH FEWER
CLOUDS AND LESS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 90S
WEST. CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER WARM UP LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  70  70  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  20
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  20
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  60  40  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 171133 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
633 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FROM VFR TO
IFR/LIFR WITH LOW CLOUDS AT ALI/CRP. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING. OTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
REMARKS AT THE TERMINALS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT VCT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER
ABOUT CHANCES OF STORMS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW TODAY MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET NEARBY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN SBCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NW
OF THE AREA AND PROPAGATE TO E AND ESE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A
MCS. PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST DEPENDING ON
ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT MAY TAKE PLACE. ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS OF HEAVIER RAIN
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THESE
AREAS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED BOTH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY
RAIN IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND BASE OF
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY HAZARDS AGAIN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS IS OUTLOOKED FOR AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK BOUNDARY ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. UPPER JET IS ALSO BEGINNING TO NOSE BACK
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH NO DECREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DAILY. UPPER LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND A BIT OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AT 250MB LEVEL...THUS ENDING ANY JET DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE COULD SEE A
BRIEF DRIER PERIOD AS SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH FEWER
CLOUDS AND LESS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 90S
WEST. CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER WARM UP LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  70  70  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  20
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  20
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  60  40  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 171133 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
633 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FROM VFR TO
IFR/LIFR WITH LOW CLOUDS AT ALI/CRP. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING. OTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
REMARKS AT THE TERMINALS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT VCT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER
ABOUT CHANCES OF STORMS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW TODAY MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET NEARBY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN SBCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NW
OF THE AREA AND PROPAGATE TO E AND ESE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A
MCS. PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST DEPENDING ON
ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT MAY TAKE PLACE. ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS OF HEAVIER RAIN
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THESE
AREAS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED BOTH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY
RAIN IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND BASE OF
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY HAZARDS AGAIN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS IS OUTLOOKED FOR AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK BOUNDARY ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. UPPER JET IS ALSO BEGINNING TO NOSE BACK
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH NO DECREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DAILY. UPPER LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND A BIT OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AT 250MB LEVEL...THUS ENDING ANY JET DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE COULD SEE A
BRIEF DRIER PERIOD AS SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH FEWER
CLOUDS AND LESS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 90S
WEST. CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER WARM UP LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  70  70  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  20
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  20
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  60  40  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 170928
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
428 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW TODAY MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET NEARBY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN SBCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NW
OF THE AREA AND PROPAGATE TO E AND ESE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A
MCS. PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST DEPENDING ON
ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT MAY TAKE PLACE. ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS OF HEAVIER RAIN
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THESE
AREAS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED BOTH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY
RAIN IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND BASE OF
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY HAZARDS AGAIN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS IS OUTLOOKED FOR AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK BOUNDARY ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. UPPER JET IS ALSO BEGINNING TO NOSE BACK
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH NO DECREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DAILY. UPPER LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND A BIT OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AT 250MB LEVEL...THUS ENDING ANY JET DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE COULD SEE A
BRIEF DRIER PERIOD AS SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH FEWER
CLOUDS AND LESS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 90S
WEST. CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER WARM UP LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  70  70  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  20
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  20
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  60  40  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...
     GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 170542 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALI/CRP/VCT WITH A
TRANSITION TO LOW CEILINGS AT LAREDO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS BY 15Z/16Z. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS COMPLEX
DEVELOPS TO THE NW OF THE AREA AND APPROACHES THE TERMINALS.
PREVAIL VCTS OR TEMPO TSRA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWER AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE OF STORMS BEYOND 00Z IS LOWER AT THIS TIME SO WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE TAFS JUST YET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A
STRONG CAP AROUND 750 MBS WHILE THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING WAS EVEN
STRONGER AND LOWER AROUND 830 MBS. THIS DRIER AIR AT 85H WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMING
SHALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NOT REMOVE POPS
ENTIRELY...DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH 06Z WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION POSSIBLY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL APPEARS TO BE AN A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE MCS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT OF CONVECTION MAY BE
WANING FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A MODEST
INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 750 MB. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000
TO 2200 FEET. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR ALONG THE COAST
BY 02Z AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 05-07Z.
AREAS OF FOG/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE
PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK (10-14Z). ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO WITH REGION IN FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. EXPECT
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO FORM NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONG STORMS
FROM 19-23Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  80  67  82  68  /  50  50  30  20  20
VICTORIA          66  79  64  83  64  /  60  50  30  20  20
LAREDO            66  87  64  87  68  /  40  30  20  20  30
ALICE             67  83  65  85  67  /  50  50  30  20  20
ROCKPORT          68  76  68  78  69  /  50  50  30  20  20
COTULLA           64  85  63  87  64  /  30  40  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        68  82  67  85  68  /  50  50  30  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       69  76  69  78  69  /  50  50  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 170542 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALI/CRP/VCT WITH A
TRANSITION TO LOW CEILINGS AT LAREDO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS BY 15Z/16Z. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS COMPLEX
DEVELOPS TO THE NW OF THE AREA AND APPROACHES THE TERMINALS.
PREVAIL VCTS OR TEMPO TSRA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWER AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE OF STORMS BEYOND 00Z IS LOWER AT THIS TIME SO WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE TAFS JUST YET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A
STRONG CAP AROUND 750 MBS WHILE THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING WAS EVEN
STRONGER AND LOWER AROUND 830 MBS. THIS DRIER AIR AT 85H WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMING
SHALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NOT REMOVE POPS
ENTIRELY...DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH 06Z WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION POSSIBLY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL APPEARS TO BE AN A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE MCS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT OF CONVECTION MAY BE
WANING FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A MODEST
INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 750 MB. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000
TO 2200 FEET. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR ALONG THE COAST
BY 02Z AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 05-07Z.
AREAS OF FOG/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE
PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK (10-14Z). ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO WITH REGION IN FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. EXPECT
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO FORM NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONG STORMS
FROM 19-23Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  80  67  82  68  /  50  50  30  20  20
VICTORIA          66  79  64  83  64  /  60  50  30  20  20
LAREDO            66  87  64  87  68  /  40  30  20  20  30
ALICE             67  83  65  85  67  /  50  50  30  20  20
ROCKPORT          68  76  68  78  69  /  50  50  30  20  20
COTULLA           64  85  63  87  64  /  30  40  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        68  82  67  85  68  /  50  50  30  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       69  76  69  78  69  /  50  50  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 170205 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
905 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A
STRONG CAP AROUND 750 MBS WHILE THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING WAS EVEN
STRONGER AND LOWER AROUND 830 MBS. THIS DRIER AIR AT 85H WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMING
SHALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NOT REMOVE POPS
ENTIRELY...DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH 06Z WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION POSSIBLY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL APPEARS TO BE AN A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE MCS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT OF CONVECTION MAY BE
WANING FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A MODEST
INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 750 MB. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000
TO 2200 FEET. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR ALONG THE COAST
BY 02Z AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 05-07Z.
AREAS OF FOG/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE
PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK (10-14Z). ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO WITH REGION IN FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. EXPECT
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO FORM NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONG STORMS
FROM 19-23Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  80  68  80  67  /  30  60  50  50  30
VICTORIA          69  80  66  79  64  /  30  70  60  50  30
LAREDO            71  84  66  87  64  /  30  50  40  30  20
ALICE             71  82  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  50  30
ROCKPORT          73  77  68  76  68  /  30  60  50  50  30
COTULLA           69  80  64  85  63  /  30  60  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        72  82  68  82  67  /  30  50  50  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       73  78  69  76  69  /  30  50  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 170205 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
905 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A
STRONG CAP AROUND 750 MBS WHILE THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING WAS EVEN
STRONGER AND LOWER AROUND 830 MBS. THIS DRIER AIR AT 85H WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMING
SHALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NOT REMOVE POPS
ENTIRELY...DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH 06Z WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION POSSIBLY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL APPEARS TO BE AN A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE MCS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT OF CONVECTION MAY BE
WANING FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A MODEST
INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 750 MB. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000
TO 2200 FEET. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR ALONG THE COAST
BY 02Z AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 05-07Z.
AREAS OF FOG/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE
PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK (10-14Z). ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO WITH REGION IN FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. EXPECT
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO FORM NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONG STORMS
FROM 19-23Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  80  68  80  67  /  30  60  50  50  30
VICTORIA          69  80  66  79  64  /  30  70  60  50  30
LAREDO            71  84  66  87  64  /  30  50  40  30  20
ALICE             71  82  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  50  30
ROCKPORT          73  77  68  76  68  /  30  60  50  50  30
COTULLA           69  80  64  85  63  /  30  60  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        72  82  68  82  67  /  30  50  50  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       73  78  69  76  69  /  30  50  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 170205 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
905 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A
STRONG CAP AROUND 750 MBS WHILE THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING WAS EVEN
STRONGER AND LOWER AROUND 830 MBS. THIS DRIER AIR AT 85H WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMING
SHALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NOT REMOVE POPS
ENTIRELY...DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH 06Z WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION POSSIBLY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL APPEARS TO BE AN A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE MCS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT OF CONVECTION MAY BE
WANING FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A MODEST
INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 750 MB. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000
TO 2200 FEET. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR ALONG THE COAST
BY 02Z AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 05-07Z.
AREAS OF FOG/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE
PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK (10-14Z). ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO WITH REGION IN FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. EXPECT
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO FORM NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONG STORMS
FROM 19-23Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  80  68  80  67  /  30  60  50  50  30
VICTORIA          69  80  66  79  64  /  30  70  60  50  30
LAREDO            71  84  66  87  64  /  30  50  40  30  20
ALICE             71  82  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  50  30
ROCKPORT          73  77  68  76  68  /  30  60  50  50  30
COTULLA           69  80  64  85  63  /  30  60  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        72  82  68  82  67  /  30  50  50  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       73  78  69  76  69  /  30  50  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 170205 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
905 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A
STRONG CAP AROUND 750 MBS WHILE THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING WAS EVEN
STRONGER AND LOWER AROUND 830 MBS. THIS DRIER AIR AT 85H WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMING
SHALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NOT REMOVE POPS
ENTIRELY...DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH 06Z WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION POSSIBLY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL APPEARS TO BE AN A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE MCS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT OF CONVECTION MAY BE
WANING FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A MODEST
INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 750 MB. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000
TO 2200 FEET. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR ALONG THE COAST
BY 02Z AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 05-07Z.
AREAS OF FOG/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE
PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK (10-14Z). ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO WITH REGION IN FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. EXPECT
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO FORM NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONG STORMS
FROM 19-23Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  80  68  80  67  /  30  60  50  50  30
VICTORIA          69  80  66  79  64  /  30  70  60  50  30
LAREDO            71  84  66  87  64  /  30  50  40  30  20
ALICE             71  82  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  50  30
ROCKPORT          73  77  68  76  68  /  30  60  50  50  30
COTULLA           69  80  64  85  63  /  30  60  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        72  82  68  82  67  /  30  50  50  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       73  78  69  76  69  /  30  50  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 162358 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
658 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT OF CONVECTION MAY BE
WANING FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A MODEST
INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 750 MB. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000
TO 2200 FEET. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR ALONG THE COAST
BY 02Z AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 05-07Z.
AREAS OF FOG/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE
PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK (10-14Z). ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO WITH REGION IN FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. EXPECT
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO FORM NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONG STORMS
FROM 19-23Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 23Z AS
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND SHEAR AOA 45 KT WL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SO WHILE THE OVERALL
TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WL BE WANING...IT WL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET A QUICK PULSE-TYPE STRONG/SVR STORM. AS THE NIGHT
UNFOLDS...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AND KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SIERRA MADRE
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS
SCENARIO THOUGH.

THE MAIN WX STORY CONTINUES TO BE FRIDAY`S EXPECTED SVR WX EVENT.
MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
EWX CWA DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IMPACT THIS AREA. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AND PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME AND
EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIFLUENT FLOW AND
INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE MOVES EWD INTO OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...CAPES
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 55-60 KT BY FRI
AFTN WL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THIS MCS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH YDA`S
THINKING AND SPC ALREADY HAS OUR CWA IN AN ENHANCED RISK. WL THUS
MENTION SEVERE IN THE WX GRIDS FOR FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WL BE TRICKY AS THE MCS MAY
ACCELERATE AND BLAST THROUGH SOONER. HOWEVER WL BE CONSERVATIVE
AND MAINTAIN CHC/LKLY POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AS WE WL LKLY STILL BE
DEALING WITH THE MCS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A
DIMINISHMENT OF RAIN CHANCES MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS
THE MCS PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME.

DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS...SKY COVER AND QPF FROM THE
PRIOR FCST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF THAT THE UPPER LOW WL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY. 700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND/OR THE UPPER SUB-TROPICAL JET MAY
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SATURDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA. PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
CWA/MSA WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOSS OF FORCING FROM THE
UPPER LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD/DISSIPATE. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY WL
THEN MEANDER OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
FURTHER...THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS IS PROGD TO BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL WITH AT LEAST WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE
REGION. (ACTUALLY...THE GFS DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS A STG UPPER JET
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY.) THUS
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION...MAINLY DRG THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...WITH CONVECTION FCST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD...THE
OVERALL GRADIENT WL REMAIN WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND SEAS WL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  80  68  80  67  /  30  60  50  50  30
VICTORIA          68  80  66  79  64  /  40  70  60  50  30
LAREDO            70  84  66  87  64  /  30  50  40  30  20
ALICE             70  82  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  50  30
ROCKPORT          72  77  68  76  68  /  40  60  50  50  30
COTULLA           68  80  64  85  63  /  40  60  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        71  82  68  82  67  /  30  50  50  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       72  78  69  76  69  /  30  50  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 162358 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
658 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT OF CONVECTION MAY BE
WANING FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A MODEST
INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 750 MB. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000
TO 2200 FEET. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR ALONG THE COAST
BY 02Z AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 05-07Z.
AREAS OF FOG/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE
PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK (10-14Z). ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO WITH REGION IN FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. EXPECT
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO FORM NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONG STORMS
FROM 19-23Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 23Z AS
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND SHEAR AOA 45 KT WL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SO WHILE THE OVERALL
TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WL BE WANING...IT WL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET A QUICK PULSE-TYPE STRONG/SVR STORM. AS THE NIGHT
UNFOLDS...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AND KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SIERRA MADRE
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS
SCENARIO THOUGH.

THE MAIN WX STORY CONTINUES TO BE FRIDAY`S EXPECTED SVR WX EVENT.
MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
EWX CWA DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IMPACT THIS AREA. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AND PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME AND
EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIFLUENT FLOW AND
INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE MOVES EWD INTO OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...CAPES
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 55-60 KT BY FRI
AFTN WL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THIS MCS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH YDA`S
THINKING AND SPC ALREADY HAS OUR CWA IN AN ENHANCED RISK. WL THUS
MENTION SEVERE IN THE WX GRIDS FOR FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WL BE TRICKY AS THE MCS MAY
ACCELERATE AND BLAST THROUGH SOONER. HOWEVER WL BE CONSERVATIVE
AND MAINTAIN CHC/LKLY POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AS WE WL LKLY STILL BE
DEALING WITH THE MCS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A
DIMINISHMENT OF RAIN CHANCES MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS
THE MCS PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME.

DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS...SKY COVER AND QPF FROM THE
PRIOR FCST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF THAT THE UPPER LOW WL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY. 700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND/OR THE UPPER SUB-TROPICAL JET MAY
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SATURDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA. PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
CWA/MSA WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOSS OF FORCING FROM THE
UPPER LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD/DISSIPATE. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY WL
THEN MEANDER OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
FURTHER...THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS IS PROGD TO BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL WITH AT LEAST WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE
REGION. (ACTUALLY...THE GFS DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS A STG UPPER JET
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY.) THUS
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION...MAINLY DRG THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...WITH CONVECTION FCST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD...THE
OVERALL GRADIENT WL REMAIN WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND SEAS WL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  80  68  80  67  /  30  60  50  50  30
VICTORIA          68  80  66  79  64  /  40  70  60  50  30
LAREDO            70  84  66  87  64  /  30  50  40  30  20
ALICE             70  82  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  50  30
ROCKPORT          72  77  68  76  68  /  40  60  50  50  30
COTULLA           68  80  64  85  63  /  40  60  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        71  82  68  82  67  /  30  50  50  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       72  78  69  76  69  /  30  50  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 162358 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
658 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT OF CONVECTION MAY BE
WANING FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A MODEST
INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 750 MB. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000
TO 2200 FEET. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR ALONG THE COAST
BY 02Z AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 05-07Z.
AREAS OF FOG/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE
PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK (10-14Z). ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO WITH REGION IN FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. EXPECT
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO FORM NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONG STORMS
FROM 19-23Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 23Z AS
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND SHEAR AOA 45 KT WL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SO WHILE THE OVERALL
TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WL BE WANING...IT WL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET A QUICK PULSE-TYPE STRONG/SVR STORM. AS THE NIGHT
UNFOLDS...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AND KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SIERRA MADRE
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS
SCENARIO THOUGH.

THE MAIN WX STORY CONTINUES TO BE FRIDAY`S EXPECTED SVR WX EVENT.
MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
EWX CWA DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IMPACT THIS AREA. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AND PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME AND
EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIFLUENT FLOW AND
INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE MOVES EWD INTO OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...CAPES
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 55-60 KT BY FRI
AFTN WL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THIS MCS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH YDA`S
THINKING AND SPC ALREADY HAS OUR CWA IN AN ENHANCED RISK. WL THUS
MENTION SEVERE IN THE WX GRIDS FOR FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WL BE TRICKY AS THE MCS MAY
ACCELERATE AND BLAST THROUGH SOONER. HOWEVER WL BE CONSERVATIVE
AND MAINTAIN CHC/LKLY POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AS WE WL LKLY STILL BE
DEALING WITH THE MCS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A
DIMINISHMENT OF RAIN CHANCES MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS
THE MCS PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME.

DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS...SKY COVER AND QPF FROM THE
PRIOR FCST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF THAT THE UPPER LOW WL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY. 700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND/OR THE UPPER SUB-TROPICAL JET MAY
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SATURDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA. PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
CWA/MSA WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOSS OF FORCING FROM THE
UPPER LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD/DISSIPATE. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY WL
THEN MEANDER OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
FURTHER...THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS IS PROGD TO BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL WITH AT LEAST WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE
REGION. (ACTUALLY...THE GFS DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS A STG UPPER JET
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY.) THUS
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION...MAINLY DRG THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...WITH CONVECTION FCST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD...THE
OVERALL GRADIENT WL REMAIN WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND SEAS WL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  80  68  80  67  /  30  60  50  50  30
VICTORIA          68  80  66  79  64  /  40  70  60  50  30
LAREDO            70  84  66  87  64  /  30  50  40  30  20
ALICE             70  82  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  50  30
ROCKPORT          72  77  68  76  68  /  40  60  50  50  30
COTULLA           68  80  64  85  63  /  40  60  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        71  82  68  82  67  /  30  50  50  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       72  78  69  76  69  /  30  50  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 162358 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
658 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT OF CONVECTION MAY BE
WANING FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A MODEST
INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 750 MB. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000
TO 2200 FEET. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR ALONG THE COAST
BY 02Z AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 05-07Z.
AREAS OF FOG/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE
PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK (10-14Z). ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO WITH REGION IN FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. EXPECT
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO FORM NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BUT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONG STORMS
FROM 19-23Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 23Z AS
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND SHEAR AOA 45 KT WL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SO WHILE THE OVERALL
TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WL BE WANING...IT WL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET A QUICK PULSE-TYPE STRONG/SVR STORM. AS THE NIGHT
UNFOLDS...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AND KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SIERRA MADRE
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS
SCENARIO THOUGH.

THE MAIN WX STORY CONTINUES TO BE FRIDAY`S EXPECTED SVR WX EVENT.
MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
EWX CWA DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IMPACT THIS AREA. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AND PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME AND
EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIFLUENT FLOW AND
INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE MOVES EWD INTO OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...CAPES
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 55-60 KT BY FRI
AFTN WL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THIS MCS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH YDA`S
THINKING AND SPC ALREADY HAS OUR CWA IN AN ENHANCED RISK. WL THUS
MENTION SEVERE IN THE WX GRIDS FOR FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WL BE TRICKY AS THE MCS MAY
ACCELERATE AND BLAST THROUGH SOONER. HOWEVER WL BE CONSERVATIVE
AND MAINTAIN CHC/LKLY POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AS WE WL LKLY STILL BE
DEALING WITH THE MCS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A
DIMINISHMENT OF RAIN CHANCES MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS
THE MCS PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME.

DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS...SKY COVER AND QPF FROM THE
PRIOR FCST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF THAT THE UPPER LOW WL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY. 700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND/OR THE UPPER SUB-TROPICAL JET MAY
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SATURDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA. PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
CWA/MSA WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOSS OF FORCING FROM THE
UPPER LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD/DISSIPATE. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY WL
THEN MEANDER OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
FURTHER...THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS IS PROGD TO BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL WITH AT LEAST WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE
REGION. (ACTUALLY...THE GFS DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS A STG UPPER JET
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY.) THUS
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION...MAINLY DRG THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...WITH CONVECTION FCST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD...THE
OVERALL GRADIENT WL REMAIN WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND SEAS WL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  80  68  80  67  /  30  60  50  50  30
VICTORIA          68  80  66  79  64  /  40  70  60  50  30
LAREDO            70  84  66  87  64  /  30  50  40  30  20
ALICE             70  82  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  50  30
ROCKPORT          72  77  68  76  68  /  40  60  50  50  30
COTULLA           68  80  64  85  63  /  40  60  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        71  82  68  82  67  /  30  50  50  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       72  78  69  76  69  /  30  50  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 162045
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
345 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 23Z AS
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND SHEAR AOA 45 KT WL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SO WHILE THE OVERALL
TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WL BE WANING...IT WL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET A QUICK PULSE-TYPE STRONG/SVR STORM. AS THE NIGHT
UNFOLDS...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AND KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SIERRA MADRE
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS
SCENARIO THOUGH.

THE MAIN WX STORY CONTINUES TO BE FRIDAY`S EXPECTED SVR WX EVENT.
MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
EWX CWA DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IMPACT THIS AREA. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AND PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME AND
EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIFLUENT FLOW AND
INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE MOVES EWD INTO OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...CAPES
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 55-60 KT BY FRI
AFTN WL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THIS MCS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH YDA`S
THINKING AND SPC ALREADY HAS OUR CWA IN AN ENHANCED RISK. WL THUS
MENTION SEVERE IN THE WX GRIDS FOR FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WL BE TRICKY AS THE MCS MAY
ACCELERATE AND BLAST THROUGH SOONER. HOWEVER WL BE CONSERVATIVE
AND MAINTAIN CHC/LKLY POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AS WE WL LKLY STILL BE
DEALING WITH THE MCS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A
DIMINISHMENT OF RAIN CHANCES MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS
THE MCS PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME.

DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS...SKY COVER AND QPF FROM THE
PRIOR FCST PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF THAT THE UPPER LOW WL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY. 700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND/OR THE UPPER SUB-TROPICAL JET MAY
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SATURDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA. PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
CWA/MSA WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOSS OF FORCING FROM THE
UPPER LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD/DISSIPATE. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY WL
THEN MEANDER OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
FURTHER...THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS IS PROGD TO BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL WITH AT LEAST WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE
REGION. (ACTUALLY...THE GFS DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS A STG UPPER JET
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY.) THUS
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION...MAINLY DRG THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WITH CONVECTION FCST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PD...THE
OVERALL GRADIENT WL REMAIN WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND SEAS WL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  80  68  80  67  /  30  60  50  50  30
VICTORIA          68  80  66  79  64  /  40  70  60  50  30
LAREDO            70  84  66  87  64  /  30  50  40  30  20
ALICE             70  82  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  50  30
ROCKPORT          72  77  68  76  68  /  40  60  50  50  30
COTULLA           68  80  64  85  63  /  40  60  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        71  82  68  82  67  /  30  50  50  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       72  78  69  76  69  /  30  50  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 162045
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
345 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 23Z AS
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND SHEAR AOA 45 KT WL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SO WHILE THE OVERALL
TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WL BE WANING...IT WL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET A QUICK PULSE-TYPE STRONG/SVR STORM. AS THE NIGHT
UNFOLDS...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AND KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SIERRA MADRE
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS
SCENARIO THOUGH.

THE MAIN WX STORY CONTINUES TO BE FRIDAY`S EXPECTED SVR WX EVENT.
MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
EWX CWA DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IMPACT THIS AREA. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AND PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME AND
EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIFLUENT FLOW AND
INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE MOVES EWD INTO OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...CAPES
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 55-60 KT BY FRI
AFTN WL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THIS MCS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH YDA`S
THINKING AND SPC ALREADY HAS OUR CWA IN AN ENHANCED RISK. WL THUS
MENTION SEVERE IN THE WX GRIDS FOR FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WL BE TRICKY AS THE MCS MAY
ACCELERATE AND BLAST THROUGH SOONER. HOWEVER WL BE CONSERVATIVE
AND MAINTAIN CHC/LKLY POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AS WE WL LKLY STILL BE
DEALING WITH THE MCS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A
DIMINISHMENT OF RAIN CHANCES MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS
THE MCS PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME.

DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS...SKY COVER AND QPF FROM THE
PRIOR FCST PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF THAT THE UPPER LOW WL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY. 700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND/OR THE UPPER SUB-TROPICAL JET MAY
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SATURDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA. PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
CWA/MSA WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOSS OF FORCING FROM THE
UPPER LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD/DISSIPATE. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY WL
THEN MEANDER OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
FURTHER...THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS IS PROGD TO BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL WITH AT LEAST WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE
REGION. (ACTUALLY...THE GFS DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS A STG UPPER JET
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY.) THUS
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION...MAINLY DRG THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WITH CONVECTION FCST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PD...THE
OVERALL GRADIENT WL REMAIN WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND SEAS WL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  80  68  80  67  /  30  60  50  50  30
VICTORIA          68  80  66  79  64  /  40  70  60  50  30
LAREDO            70  84  66  87  64  /  30  50  40  30  20
ALICE             70  82  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  50  30
ROCKPORT          72  77  68  76  68  /  40  60  50  50  30
COTULLA           68  80  64  85  63  /  40  60  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        71  82  68  82  67  /  30  50  50  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       72  78  69  76  69  /  30  50  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 162045
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
345 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 23Z AS
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND SHEAR AOA 45 KT WL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SO WHILE THE OVERALL
TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WL BE WANING...IT WL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET A QUICK PULSE-TYPE STRONG/SVR STORM. AS THE NIGHT
UNFOLDS...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AND KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SIERRA MADRE
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS
SCENARIO THOUGH.

THE MAIN WX STORY CONTINUES TO BE FRIDAY`S EXPECTED SVR WX EVENT.
MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
EWX CWA DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IMPACT THIS AREA. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AND PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME AND
EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIFLUENT FLOW AND
INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE MOVES EWD INTO OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...CAPES
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 55-60 KT BY FRI
AFTN WL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THIS MCS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH YDA`S
THINKING AND SPC ALREADY HAS OUR CWA IN AN ENHANCED RISK. WL THUS
MENTION SEVERE IN THE WX GRIDS FOR FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WL BE TRICKY AS THE MCS MAY
ACCELERATE AND BLAST THROUGH SOONER. HOWEVER WL BE CONSERVATIVE
AND MAINTAIN CHC/LKLY POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AS WE WL LKLY STILL BE
DEALING WITH THE MCS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A
DIMINISHMENT OF RAIN CHANCES MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS
THE MCS PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME.

DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS...SKY COVER AND QPF FROM THE
PRIOR FCST PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF THAT THE UPPER LOW WL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY. 700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND/OR THE UPPER SUB-TROPICAL JET MAY
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SATURDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA. PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
CWA/MSA WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOSS OF FORCING FROM THE
UPPER LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD/DISSIPATE. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY WL
THEN MEANDER OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
FURTHER...THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS IS PROGD TO BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL WITH AT LEAST WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE
REGION. (ACTUALLY...THE GFS DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS A STG UPPER JET
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY.) THUS
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION...MAINLY DRG THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WITH CONVECTION FCST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PD...THE
OVERALL GRADIENT WL REMAIN WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND SEAS WL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  80  68  80  67  /  30  60  50  50  30
VICTORIA          68  80  66  79  64  /  40  70  60  50  30
LAREDO            70  84  66  87  64  /  30  50  40  30  20
ALICE             70  82  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  50  30
ROCKPORT          72  77  68  76  68  /  40  60  50  50  30
COTULLA           68  80  64  85  63  /  40  60  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        71  82  68  82  67  /  30  50  50  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       72  78  69  76  69  /  30  50  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 162045
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
345 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 23Z AS
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND SHEAR AOA 45 KT WL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SO WHILE THE OVERALL
TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WL BE WANING...IT WL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET A QUICK PULSE-TYPE STRONG/SVR STORM. AS THE NIGHT
UNFOLDS...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AND KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SIERRA MADRE
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS
SCENARIO THOUGH.

THE MAIN WX STORY CONTINUES TO BE FRIDAY`S EXPECTED SVR WX EVENT.
MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
EWX CWA DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IMPACT THIS AREA. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AND PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME AND
EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIFLUENT FLOW AND
INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE MOVES EWD INTO OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...CAPES
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 55-60 KT BY FRI
AFTN WL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THIS MCS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH YDA`S
THINKING AND SPC ALREADY HAS OUR CWA IN AN ENHANCED RISK. WL THUS
MENTION SEVERE IN THE WX GRIDS FOR FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WL BE TRICKY AS THE MCS MAY
ACCELERATE AND BLAST THROUGH SOONER. HOWEVER WL BE CONSERVATIVE
AND MAINTAIN CHC/LKLY POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AS WE WL LKLY STILL BE
DEALING WITH THE MCS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A
DIMINISHMENT OF RAIN CHANCES MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS
THE MCS PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME.

DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS...SKY COVER AND QPF FROM THE
PRIOR FCST PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF THAT THE UPPER LOW WL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY. 700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND/OR THE UPPER SUB-TROPICAL JET MAY
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SATURDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA. PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
CWA/MSA WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOSS OF FORCING FROM THE
UPPER LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD/DISSIPATE. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY WL
THEN MEANDER OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
FURTHER...THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS IS PROGD TO BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL WITH AT LEAST WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE
REGION. (ACTUALLY...THE GFS DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS A STG UPPER JET
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY.) THUS
ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION...MAINLY DRG THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WITH CONVECTION FCST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PD...THE
OVERALL GRADIENT WL REMAIN WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND SEAS WL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  80  68  80  67  /  30  60  50  50  30
VICTORIA          68  80  66  79  64  /  40  70  60  50  30
LAREDO            70  84  66  87  64  /  30  50  40  30  20
ALICE             70  82  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  50  30
ROCKPORT          72  77  68  76  68  /  40  60  50  50  30
COTULLA           68  80  64  85  63  /  40  60  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        71  82  68  82  67  /  30  50  50  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       72  78  69  76  69  /  30  50  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 161949 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR SVR TSM WATCH 60 FOR NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS REFUGIO
COUNTY WITH ALREADY REPORTS OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL. LAPS INDICATES CAPES OF 2400-3600 J/KG ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 40-45 KT WITH A
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN.
EXPECT THE SVR THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND THEN IT
SHOULD WANE AS THE FORCING SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  71  80  68  80  /  50  30  60  50  50
VICTORIA          79  68  80  66  79  /  60  40  70  60  50
LAREDO            86  70  84  66  87  /  40  30  50  40  30
ALICE             82  70  82  67  83  /  50  30  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          77  72  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  50  50
COTULLA           82  68  80  64  85  /  40  40  60  30  30
KINGSVILLE        82  71  82  68  82  /  50  30  50  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  78  69  76  /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 161949 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR SVR TSM WATCH 60 FOR NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS REFUGIO
COUNTY WITH ALREADY REPORTS OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL. LAPS INDICATES CAPES OF 2400-3600 J/KG ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 40-45 KT WITH A
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN.
EXPECT THE SVR THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND THEN IT
SHOULD WANE AS THE FORCING SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  71  80  68  80  /  50  30  60  50  50
VICTORIA          79  68  80  66  79  /  60  40  70  60  50
LAREDO            86  70  84  66  87  /  40  30  50  40  30
ALICE             82  70  82  67  83  /  50  30  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          77  72  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  50  50
COTULLA           82  68  80  64  85  /  40  40  60  30  30
KINGSVILLE        82  71  82  68  82  /  50  30  50  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  78  69  76  /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 161734
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
IN MOST AREAS TO JUST ABV 3K FT. SCTD STRONG TO SVR STORMS WITH
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT WL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z TDA.
VCT AND ALI WOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL AT SEEING A STORM TDA.
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KT WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR SOME
OF THESE STORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL QUICKLY RE-DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z
AND 05Z. THERE WL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF LRD SEEING SOME STORMS
DURING THE 10-14Z TIME PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S HAS LED TO INCREASING SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
THIS TREND WL CONTINUE AS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND
CONVERGENCE ASSCTD WITH A WK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HOURS.

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TDA WL BE THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AND
SVR WX POTENTIAL. THE HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS/TEXAS TECH SOLNS ALL
INDICATE THAT A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
AFTN/EVE AND AFFECT MOSTLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DECENT INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS
AND THE VEERING OF THE 700 MB WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE UPR JET SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
ALL OF THESE SOLNS POINT TO THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE NERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY THE AFTN. WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN MUCAPES BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT BY THE AFTN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. AS A RESULT...ADDED
THE MENTION OF SEVERE ACROSS THE NERN ZONES INTO THE GRIDS.
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THE RISK OF SEVERE WL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
AND MOSTLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.

LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD CVR (AND THE
EXTRA TIME IT WL TAKE TO THIN THESE CLOUDS OUT) AND THE STILL WET
SOILS.

MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS
TDA WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT. THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  71  80  68  80  /  50  30  50  50  50
VICTORIA          79  68  80  66  79  /  60  50  70  60  50
LAREDO            86  70  84  66  87  /  40  30  50  40  30
ALICE             82  70  82  67  83  /  50  30  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          77  72  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  50  50
COTULLA           82  68  80  64  85  /  40  30  60  30  30
KINGSVILLE        82  71  82  68  82  /  50  30  50  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  78  69  76  /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 161734
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
IN MOST AREAS TO JUST ABV 3K FT. SCTD STRONG TO SVR STORMS WITH
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT WL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z TDA.
VCT AND ALI WOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL AT SEEING A STORM TDA.
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KT WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR SOME
OF THESE STORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL QUICKLY RE-DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z
AND 05Z. THERE WL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF LRD SEEING SOME STORMS
DURING THE 10-14Z TIME PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S HAS LED TO INCREASING SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
THIS TREND WL CONTINUE AS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND
CONVERGENCE ASSCTD WITH A WK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HOURS.

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TDA WL BE THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AND
SVR WX POTENTIAL. THE HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS/TEXAS TECH SOLNS ALL
INDICATE THAT A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
AFTN/EVE AND AFFECT MOSTLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DECENT INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS
AND THE VEERING OF THE 700 MB WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE UPR JET SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
ALL OF THESE SOLNS POINT TO THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE NERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY THE AFTN. WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN MUCAPES BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT BY THE AFTN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. AS A RESULT...ADDED
THE MENTION OF SEVERE ACROSS THE NERN ZONES INTO THE GRIDS.
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THE RISK OF SEVERE WL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
AND MOSTLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.

LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD CVR (AND THE
EXTRA TIME IT WL TAKE TO THIN THESE CLOUDS OUT) AND THE STILL WET
SOILS.

MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS
TDA WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT. THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  71  80  68  80  /  50  30  50  50  50
VICTORIA          79  68  80  66  79  /  60  50  70  60  50
LAREDO            86  70  84  66  87  /  40  30  50  40  30
ALICE             82  70  82  67  83  /  50  30  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          77  72  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  50  50
COTULLA           82  68  80  64  85  /  40  30  60  30  30
KINGSVILLE        82  71  82  68  82  /  50  30  50  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  78  69  76  /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 161734
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
IN MOST AREAS TO JUST ABV 3K FT. SCTD STRONG TO SVR STORMS WITH
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT WL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z TDA.
VCT AND ALI WOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL AT SEEING A STORM TDA.
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KT WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR SOME
OF THESE STORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL QUICKLY RE-DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z
AND 05Z. THERE WL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF LRD SEEING SOME STORMS
DURING THE 10-14Z TIME PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S HAS LED TO INCREASING SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
THIS TREND WL CONTINUE AS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND
CONVERGENCE ASSCTD WITH A WK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HOURS.

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TDA WL BE THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AND
SVR WX POTENTIAL. THE HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS/TEXAS TECH SOLNS ALL
INDICATE THAT A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
AFTN/EVE AND AFFECT MOSTLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DECENT INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS
AND THE VEERING OF THE 700 MB WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE UPR JET SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
ALL OF THESE SOLNS POINT TO THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE NERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY THE AFTN. WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN MUCAPES BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT BY THE AFTN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. AS A RESULT...ADDED
THE MENTION OF SEVERE ACROSS THE NERN ZONES INTO THE GRIDS.
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THE RISK OF SEVERE WL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
AND MOSTLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.

LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD CVR (AND THE
EXTRA TIME IT WL TAKE TO THIN THESE CLOUDS OUT) AND THE STILL WET
SOILS.

MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS
TDA WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT. THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  71  80  68  80  /  50  30  50  50  50
VICTORIA          79  68  80  66  79  /  60  50  70  60  50
LAREDO            86  70  84  66  87  /  40  30  50  40  30
ALICE             82  70  82  67  83  /  50  30  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          77  72  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  50  50
COTULLA           82  68  80  64  85  /  40  30  60  30  30
KINGSVILLE        82  71  82  68  82  /  50  30  50  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  78  69  76  /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 161734
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
IN MOST AREAS TO JUST ABV 3K FT. SCTD STRONG TO SVR STORMS WITH
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT WL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z TDA.
VCT AND ALI WOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL AT SEEING A STORM TDA.
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KT WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR SOME
OF THESE STORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL QUICKLY RE-DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z
AND 05Z. THERE WL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF LRD SEEING SOME STORMS
DURING THE 10-14Z TIME PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S HAS LED TO INCREASING SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
THIS TREND WL CONTINUE AS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND
CONVERGENCE ASSCTD WITH A WK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HOURS.

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TDA WL BE THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AND
SVR WX POTENTIAL. THE HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS/TEXAS TECH SOLNS ALL
INDICATE THAT A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
AFTN/EVE AND AFFECT MOSTLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DECENT INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS
AND THE VEERING OF THE 700 MB WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE UPR JET SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
ALL OF THESE SOLNS POINT TO THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE NERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY THE AFTN. WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN MUCAPES BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT BY THE AFTN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. AS A RESULT...ADDED
THE MENTION OF SEVERE ACROSS THE NERN ZONES INTO THE GRIDS.
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THE RISK OF SEVERE WL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
AND MOSTLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.

LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD CVR (AND THE
EXTRA TIME IT WL TAKE TO THIN THESE CLOUDS OUT) AND THE STILL WET
SOILS.

MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS
TDA WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT. THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  71  80  68  80  /  50  30  50  50  50
VICTORIA          79  68  80  66  79  /  60  50  70  60  50
LAREDO            86  70  84  66  87  /  40  30  50  40  30
ALICE             82  70  82  67  83  /  50  30  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          77  72  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  50  50
COTULLA           82  68  80  64  85  /  40  30  60  30  30
KINGSVILLE        82  71  82  68  82  /  50  30  50  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  78  69  76  /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 161546
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1046 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S HAS LED TO INCREASING SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
THIS TREND WL CONTINUE AS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND
CONVERGENCE ASSCTD WITH A WK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HOURS.

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TDA WL BE THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AND
SVR WX POTENTIAL. THE HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS/TEXAS TECH SOLNS ALL
INDICATE THAT A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
AFTN/EVE AND AFFECT MOSTLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DECENT INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS
AND THE VEERING OF THE 700 MB WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE UPR JET SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
ALL OF THESE SOLNS POINT TO THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE NERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY THE AFTN. WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN MUCAPES BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT BY THE AFTN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. AS A RESULT...ADDED
THE MENTION OF SEVERE ACROSS THE NERN ZONES INTO THE GRIDS.
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THE RISK OF SEVERE WL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
AND MOSTLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.

LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD CVR (AND THE
EXTRA TIME IT WL TAKE TO THIN THESE CLOUDS OUT) AND THE STILL WET
SOILS.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS
TDA WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT. THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  71  80  68  80  /  50  30  50  50  50
VICTORIA          79  68  80  66  79  /  60  50  70  60  50
LAREDO            86  70  84  66  87  /  40  30  50  40  30
ALICE             82  70  82  67  83  /  50  30  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          77  72  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  50  50
COTULLA           82  68  80  64  85  /  40  30  60  30  30
KINGSVILLE        82  71  82  68  82  /  50  30  50  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  78  69  76  /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 161546
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1046 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S HAS LED TO INCREASING SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
THIS TREND WL CONTINUE AS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND
CONVERGENCE ASSCTD WITH A WK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HOURS.

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TDA WL BE THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AND
SVR WX POTENTIAL. THE HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS/TEXAS TECH SOLNS ALL
INDICATE THAT A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
AFTN/EVE AND AFFECT MOSTLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DECENT INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS
AND THE VEERING OF THE 700 MB WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE UPR JET SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
ALL OF THESE SOLNS POINT TO THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE NERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY THE AFTN. WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN MUCAPES BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT BY THE AFTN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. AS A RESULT...ADDED
THE MENTION OF SEVERE ACROSS THE NERN ZONES INTO THE GRIDS.
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THE RISK OF SEVERE WL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
AND MOSTLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.

LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD CVR (AND THE
EXTRA TIME IT WL TAKE TO THIN THESE CLOUDS OUT) AND THE STILL WET
SOILS.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS
TDA WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT. THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  71  80  68  80  /  50  30  50  50  50
VICTORIA          79  68  80  66  79  /  60  50  70  60  50
LAREDO            86  70  84  66  87  /  40  30  50  40  30
ALICE             82  70  82  67  83  /  50  30  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          77  72  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  50  50
COTULLA           82  68  80  64  85  /  40  30  60  30  30
KINGSVILLE        82  71  82  68  82  /  50  30  50  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  78  69  76  /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 161127
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
627 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT
TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MID-DAY. HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID DAY AND GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...THINK WE WILL HAVE
LOWER CIGS...AT LEAST LOW MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH SHORT TERM PERIOD. HAVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE SOME GROWING DOUBTS IN THE POTENTIAL TODAY
DUE TO A FEW FACTORS...FIRST THERE IS NOT A REAL CLEAR
FORCING/FOCUS MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE. VERY WEAK BOUNDARY THAT
HAS BEEN IN THE AREA APPEARS TO HAVE WASHED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY...WILL SEE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE TURN TO MORE OF A
SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THAT COULD DEVELOP A CAP THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL JET THAT HAD BEEN PROGGED TO BE
NOSING INTO THE AREA IS NOW LOOKING TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING US INTO THE LESS FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE
JET. ALL THAT SAID...WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS...GOOD INSTABILITY AND
PLENTY OF SHEAR. IF WE WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING COULD DEVELOP
SOME STORMS BEFORE OTHER FACTORS BECOME MORE NEGATIVE. MESO
MODELS...EXCEPT FOR NCEP 4KM WRF /WHICH IS ALREADY NOT
INITIALIZING WELL/ DO NOT REALLY DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY.
HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT THE MESO MODELS AS A WHOLE HAVE
NOT BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL THROUGHOUT THIS PAST WEEK OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. ALL SAID AND DONE...BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IS NORTH
PORTIONS OF CWA LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER...WITH INDICATIONS OF AN MCS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS THE MCS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CUT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY BOUNDARYS KICKED
OUT BY THIS MCS WOULD THEN ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL
WOULD BECOME AN ISSUE FRIDAY DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN NORTHERN ZONES
WITH MCS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE ATMOSPHERE...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES TO
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS AGREE WITH
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED. PERSISTENT SELY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
ABUNDANT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. MCS/COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PUSHING EAST ON FRIDAY... WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. LOWER HEIGHTS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
ON SATURDAY COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM FRIDAY/S
STORM WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY...BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AS GUIDANCE INDICATES BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  80  68  80  /  50  30  50  50  50
VICTORIA          81  68  80  66  79  /  60  50  70  60  50
LAREDO            87  70  84  66  87  /  40  30  50  40  30
ALICE             83  70  82  67  83  /  50  30  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          78  72  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  50  50
COTULLA           83  68  80  64  85  /  40  30  60  30  30
KINGSVILLE        83  71  82  68  82  /  40  30  50  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       79  72  78  69  76  /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 161127
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
627 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT
TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MID-DAY. HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID DAY AND GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...THINK WE WILL HAVE
LOWER CIGS...AT LEAST LOW MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH SHORT TERM PERIOD. HAVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE SOME GROWING DOUBTS IN THE POTENTIAL TODAY
DUE TO A FEW FACTORS...FIRST THERE IS NOT A REAL CLEAR
FORCING/FOCUS MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE. VERY WEAK BOUNDARY THAT
HAS BEEN IN THE AREA APPEARS TO HAVE WASHED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY...WILL SEE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE TURN TO MORE OF A
SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THAT COULD DEVELOP A CAP THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL JET THAT HAD BEEN PROGGED TO BE
NOSING INTO THE AREA IS NOW LOOKING TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING US INTO THE LESS FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE
JET. ALL THAT SAID...WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS...GOOD INSTABILITY AND
PLENTY OF SHEAR. IF WE WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING COULD DEVELOP
SOME STORMS BEFORE OTHER FACTORS BECOME MORE NEGATIVE. MESO
MODELS...EXCEPT FOR NCEP 4KM WRF /WHICH IS ALREADY NOT
INITIALIZING WELL/ DO NOT REALLY DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY.
HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT THE MESO MODELS AS A WHOLE HAVE
NOT BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL THROUGHOUT THIS PAST WEEK OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. ALL SAID AND DONE...BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IS NORTH
PORTIONS OF CWA LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER...WITH INDICATIONS OF AN MCS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS THE MCS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CUT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY BOUNDARYS KICKED
OUT BY THIS MCS WOULD THEN ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL
WOULD BECOME AN ISSUE FRIDAY DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN NORTHERN ZONES
WITH MCS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE ATMOSPHERE...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES TO
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS AGREE WITH
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED. PERSISTENT SELY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
ABUNDANT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. MCS/COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PUSHING EAST ON FRIDAY... WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. LOWER HEIGHTS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
ON SATURDAY COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM FRIDAY/S
STORM WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY...BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AS GUIDANCE INDICATES BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  80  68  80  /  50  30  50  50  50
VICTORIA          81  68  80  66  79  /  60  50  70  60  50
LAREDO            87  70  84  66  87  /  40  30  50  40  30
ALICE             83  70  82  67  83  /  50  30  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          78  72  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  50  50
COTULLA           83  68  80  64  85  /  40  30  60  30  30
KINGSVILLE        83  71  82  68  82  /  40  30  50  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       79  72  78  69  76  /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 161127
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
627 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT
TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MID-DAY. HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID DAY AND GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...THINK WE WILL HAVE
LOWER CIGS...AT LEAST LOW MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH SHORT TERM PERIOD. HAVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE SOME GROWING DOUBTS IN THE POTENTIAL TODAY
DUE TO A FEW FACTORS...FIRST THERE IS NOT A REAL CLEAR
FORCING/FOCUS MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE. VERY WEAK BOUNDARY THAT
HAS BEEN IN THE AREA APPEARS TO HAVE WASHED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY...WILL SEE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE TURN TO MORE OF A
SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THAT COULD DEVELOP A CAP THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL JET THAT HAD BEEN PROGGED TO BE
NOSING INTO THE AREA IS NOW LOOKING TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING US INTO THE LESS FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE
JET. ALL THAT SAID...WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS...GOOD INSTABILITY AND
PLENTY OF SHEAR. IF WE WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING COULD DEVELOP
SOME STORMS BEFORE OTHER FACTORS BECOME MORE NEGATIVE. MESO
MODELS...EXCEPT FOR NCEP 4KM WRF /WHICH IS ALREADY NOT
INITIALIZING WELL/ DO NOT REALLY DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY.
HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT THE MESO MODELS AS A WHOLE HAVE
NOT BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL THROUGHOUT THIS PAST WEEK OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. ALL SAID AND DONE...BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IS NORTH
PORTIONS OF CWA LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER...WITH INDICATIONS OF AN MCS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS THE MCS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CUT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY BOUNDARYS KICKED
OUT BY THIS MCS WOULD THEN ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL
WOULD BECOME AN ISSUE FRIDAY DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN NORTHERN ZONES
WITH MCS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE ATMOSPHERE...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES TO
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS AGREE WITH
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED. PERSISTENT SELY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
ABUNDANT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. MCS/COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PUSHING EAST ON FRIDAY... WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. LOWER HEIGHTS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
ON SATURDAY COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM FRIDAY/S
STORM WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY...BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AS GUIDANCE INDICATES BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  80  68  80  /  50  30  50  50  50
VICTORIA          81  68  80  66  79  /  60  50  70  60  50
LAREDO            87  70  84  66  87  /  40  30  50  40  30
ALICE             83  70  82  67  83  /  50  30  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          78  72  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  50  50
COTULLA           83  68  80  64  85  /  40  30  60  30  30
KINGSVILLE        83  71  82  68  82  /  40  30  50  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       79  72  78  69  76  /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 160923
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH SHORT TERM PERIOD. HAVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE SOME GROWING DOUBTS IN THE POTENTIAL TODAY
DUE TO A FEW FACTORS...FIRST THERE IS NOT A REAL CLEAR
FORCING/FOCUS MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE. VERY WEAK BOUNDARY THAT
HAS BEEN IN THE AREA APPEARS TO HAVE WASHED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY...WILL SEE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE TURN TO MORE OF A
SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THAT COULD DEVELOP A CAP THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL JET THAT HAD BEEN PROGGED TO BE
NOSING INTO THE AREA IS NOW LOOKING TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING US INTO THE LESS FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE
JET. ALL THAT SAID...WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS...GOOD INSTABILITY AND
PLENTY OF SHEAR. IF WE WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING COULD DEVELOP
SOME STORMS BEFORE OTHER FACTORS BECOME MORE NEGATIVE. MESO
MODELS...EXCEPT FOR NCEP 4KM WRF /WHICH IS ALREADY NOT
INITIALIZING WELL/ DO NOT REALLY DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY.
HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT THE MESO MODELS AS A WHOLE HAVE
NOT BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL THROUGHOUT THIS PAST WEEK OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. ALL SAID AND DONE...BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IS NORTH
PORTIONS OF CWA LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER...WITH INDICATIONS OF AN MCS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS THE MCS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CUT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY BOUNDARYS KICKED
OUT BY THIS MCS WOULD THEN ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL
WOULD BECOME AN ISSUE FRIDAY DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN NORTHERN ZONES
WITH MCS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE ATMOSPHERE...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES TO
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS AGREE WITH
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED. PERSISTENT SELY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
ABUNDANT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. MCS/COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PUSHING EAST ON FRIDAY... WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. LOWER HEIGHTS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
ON SATURDAY COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM FRIDAY/S
STORM WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY...BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AS GUIDANCE INDICATES BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  80  68  80  /  50  30  50  50  50
VICTORIA          81  68  80  66  79  /  60  50  70  60  50
LAREDO            87  70  84  66  87  /  40  30  50  40  30
ALICE             83  70  82  67  83  /  50  30  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          78  72  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  50  50
COTULLA           83  68  80  64  85  /  40  30  60  30  30
KINGSVILLE        83  71  82  68  82  /  40  30  50  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       79  72  78  69  76  /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 160923
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH SHORT TERM PERIOD. HAVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE SOME GROWING DOUBTS IN THE POTENTIAL TODAY
DUE TO A FEW FACTORS...FIRST THERE IS NOT A REAL CLEAR
FORCING/FOCUS MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE. VERY WEAK BOUNDARY THAT
HAS BEEN IN THE AREA APPEARS TO HAVE WASHED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY...WILL SEE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE TURN TO MORE OF A
SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THAT COULD DEVELOP A CAP THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL JET THAT HAD BEEN PROGGED TO BE
NOSING INTO THE AREA IS NOW LOOKING TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING US INTO THE LESS FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE
JET. ALL THAT SAID...WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS...GOOD INSTABILITY AND
PLENTY OF SHEAR. IF WE WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING COULD DEVELOP
SOME STORMS BEFORE OTHER FACTORS BECOME MORE NEGATIVE. MESO
MODELS...EXCEPT FOR NCEP 4KM WRF /WHICH IS ALREADY NOT
INITIALIZING WELL/ DO NOT REALLY DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY.
HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT THE MESO MODELS AS A WHOLE HAVE
NOT BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL THROUGHOUT THIS PAST WEEK OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. ALL SAID AND DONE...BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IS NORTH
PORTIONS OF CWA LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER...WITH INDICATIONS OF AN MCS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS THE MCS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CUT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY BOUNDARYS KICKED
OUT BY THIS MCS WOULD THEN ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL
WOULD BECOME AN ISSUE FRIDAY DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN NORTHERN ZONES
WITH MCS...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE ATMOSPHERE...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES TO
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS AGREE WITH
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED. PERSISTENT SELY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
ABUNDANT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. MCS/COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PUSHING EAST ON FRIDAY... WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. LOWER HEIGHTS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
ON SATURDAY COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM FRIDAY/S
STORM WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY...BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AS GUIDANCE INDICATES BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  80  68  80  /  50  30  50  50  50
VICTORIA          81  68  80  66  79  /  60  50  70  60  50
LAREDO            87  70  84  66  87  /  40  30  50  40  30
ALICE             83  70  82  67  83  /  50  30  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          78  72  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  50  50
COTULLA           83  68  80  64  85  /  40  30  60  30  30
KINGSVILLE        83  71  82  68  82  /  40  30  50  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       79  72  78  69  76  /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 160529
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL LEAD TO LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL SITES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CIS DURING THE DAY...BUT COULD BREAK OUT TO VFR IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DEL RIO. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT
MOVED FURTHER EAST INTO INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THAT WAS
NOTED ON 00Z DRT SOUNDING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
THE BRUSH COUNTRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CASE THIS ACTIVITY
REACHES THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
1.9 INCHES. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS.
LITTLE LEARY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OVER MEXICO NOSING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARD MATAGORDA
BAY OVERNIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MADE CHANGES TO INCREASE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT.

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT IN STORE FOR THURSDAY. SEVERAL
SHORT RANGE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z. STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
ADEQUATE SHEAR WITH THE UPPER JET AXIS OVER THE REGION COULD LEAD
TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. NO CHANGES MADE TO THURSDAY FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS S TX ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH A
FEW MVFR OBS. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH LITTLE PRECIP. AFTER MIDNIGHT AM
EXPECTING RAIN CHCS TO INCREASE WITH THE MAIN CHC FOR TSRA`S
EXPECTED BY EARLY THU MORNING FOR LRD THEN MID MORNING FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AND
ON THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. MVFR...TO AT TIMES IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN AND NEAR CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  70  81  68  80  /  60  40  60  40  40
VICTORIA          79  69  79  65  79  /  60  50  60  50  40
LAREDO            85  70  85  66  87  /  40  30  50  30  40
ALICE             82  70  83  67  83  /  50  40  60  40  40
ROCKPORT          77  70  77  68  76  /  50  40  60  40  40
COTULLA           81  67  82  63  84  /  50  40  60  30  40
KINGSVILLE        82  70  83  68  82  /  50  40  60  40  40
NAVY CORPUS       77  71  79  69  76  /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 160245 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
945 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DEL RIO. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT
MOVED FURTHER EAST INTO INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THAT WAS
NOTED ON 00Z DRT SOUNDING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
THE BRUSH COUNTRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CASE THIS ACTIVITY
REACHES THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
1.9 INCHES. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS.
LITTLE LEARY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OVER MEXICO NOSING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARD MATAGORDA
BAY OVERNIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MADE CHANGES TO INCREASE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT.

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT IN STORE FOR THURSDAY. SEVERAL
SHORT RANGE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z. STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
ADEQUATE SHEAR WITH THE UPPER JET AXIS OVER THE REGION COULD LEAD
TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. NO CHANGES MADE TO THURSDAY FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS S TX ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH A
FEW MVFR OBS. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH LITTLE PRECIP. AFTER MIDNIGHT AM
EXPECTING RAIN CHCS TO INCREASE WITH THE MAIN CHC FOR TSRA`S
EXPECTED BY EARLY THU MORNING FOR LRD THEN MID MORNING FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AND
ON THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. MVFR...TO AT TIMES IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN AND NEAR CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  70  81  68  /  20  60  40  60  40
VICTORIA          66  79  69  79  65  /  20  60  50  60  50
LAREDO            67  85  70  85  66  /  20  40  30  50  30
ALICE             68  82  70  83  67  /  20  50  40  60  40
ROCKPORT          70  77  70  77  68  /  20  50  40  60  40
COTULLA           66  81  67  82  63  /  20  50  40  60  30
KINGSVILLE        68  82  70  83  68  /  20  50  40  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       70  77  71  79  69  /  20  50  40  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 160245 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
945 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DEL RIO. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT
MOVED FURTHER EAST INTO INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THAT WAS
NOTED ON 00Z DRT SOUNDING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
THE BRUSH COUNTRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CASE THIS ACTIVITY
REACHES THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
1.9 INCHES. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS.
LITTLE LEARY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OVER MEXICO NOSING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARD MATAGORDA
BAY OVERNIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MADE CHANGES TO INCREASE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT.

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT IN STORE FOR THURSDAY. SEVERAL
SHORT RANGE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z. STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
ADEQUATE SHEAR WITH THE UPPER JET AXIS OVER THE REGION COULD LEAD
TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. NO CHANGES MADE TO THURSDAY FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS S TX ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH A
FEW MVFR OBS. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH LITTLE PRECIP. AFTER MIDNIGHT AM
EXPECTING RAIN CHCS TO INCREASE WITH THE MAIN CHC FOR TSRA`S
EXPECTED BY EARLY THU MORNING FOR LRD THEN MID MORNING FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AND
ON THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. MVFR...TO AT TIMES IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN AND NEAR CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  70  81  68  /  20  60  40  60  40
VICTORIA          66  79  69  79  65  /  20  60  50  60  50
LAREDO            67  85  70  85  66  /  20  40  30  50  30
ALICE             68  82  70  83  67  /  20  50  40  60  40
ROCKPORT          70  77  70  77  68  /  20  50  40  60  40
COTULLA           66  81  67  82  63  /  20  50  40  60  30
KINGSVILLE        68  82  70  83  68  /  20  50  40  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       70  77  71  79  69  /  20  50  40  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 152306
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
606 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS S TX ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH A
FEW MVFR OBS. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH LITTLE PRECIP. AFTER MIDNIGHT AM
EXPECTING RAIN CHCS TO INCREASE WITH THE MAIN CHC FOR TSRA`S
EXPECTED BY EARLY THU MORNING FOR LRD THEN MID MORNING FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AND
ON THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. MVFR...TO AT TIMES IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN AND NEAR CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT
WITH REGARD TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. MOST RECENT
NSSL/TEXAS TECH WRF RUNS/SREF MEAN QPF DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH
ACTIVITY TONIGHT. YET...THE NAM DETERMINISTIC (RELATIVE THE THE
GFS) APPEARS TO DEPICT MORE CONTINUITY IN A SUBTROPICAL JET THAT
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA/MSA BEGINNING TONIGHT. FURTHER...THE
GFS (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM) DETERMINISTIC PROG A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER/SFC FORCING TO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION THURSDAY. SREF MEAN PCPN/TEXAS
TECH WRF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT ADDS CREDENCE TO CONVECTION FOR
THURSDAY AFTN. SELECTED NAM SOUNDINGS PROG SBCAPE VALUES
2000-3000J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTN. BRN VALUES
CONSISTENT WITH MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS. CONCUR WITH SLGT RISK OF
SEVERE FROM SPC. ADDED SVR WORDING TO ZFP FOR THURSDAY AFTN/
EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
OWING TO THE UPPER JET.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN WL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LET UP IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN
THE WEEK.  ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 45 KT ALONG WITH MUCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUCAPES TO REACH 4000+ J/KG WL SET THE STAGE FOR FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN MCS (LKLY
INITIATED FROM A S/WV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 90-100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET)
WL LKLY BE ONGOING AND/OR DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EWX CWA EXTENDING INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALONG AND NORTH
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS MCS WL LKLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS IT PROPAGATES ESEWD.  THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR
TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ATTM.  RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY (CAPES A BIT LESS AT AROUND 2500 J/KG) WITH PERHAPS AN
OLD OUTFLOW FROM FRIDAY`S CONVECTION WL BE IN PLAY ON SATURDAY.
WITH LESS FORCING...WL ONLY GO WITH CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY.  A
PARTIAL DRYING PROCESS WL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WL HELP TO
LOWER RAIN CHANCES.  RAIN CHANCES WL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY TUE AS A
STALLED FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH OF THE CWA AND HELPS TO USHER IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIMRASS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WL BE
TRICKY WITH CONVECTION IN THE FCST AND WET SOILS.  WL GENERALLY GO
WITH AT OR BELOW CLIMO AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  70  81  68  /  20  60  40  60  40
VICTORIA          67  79  69  79  65  /  20  60  50  60  50
LAREDO            68  85  70  85  66  /  20  40  30  50  30
ALICE             68  82  70  83  67  /  20  50  40  60  40
ROCKPORT          71  77  70  77  68  /  20  50  40  60  40
COTULLA           67  81  67  82  63  /  20  50  40  60  30
KINGSVILLE        69  82  70  83  68  /  20  50  40  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       71  77  71  79  69  /  20  50  40  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 152306
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
606 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS S TX ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH A
FEW MVFR OBS. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH LITTLE PRECIP. AFTER MIDNIGHT AM
EXPECTING RAIN CHCS TO INCREASE WITH THE MAIN CHC FOR TSRA`S
EXPECTED BY EARLY THU MORNING FOR LRD THEN MID MORNING FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AND
ON THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. MVFR...TO AT TIMES IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN AND NEAR CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT
WITH REGARD TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. MOST RECENT
NSSL/TEXAS TECH WRF RUNS/SREF MEAN QPF DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH
ACTIVITY TONIGHT. YET...THE NAM DETERMINISTIC (RELATIVE THE THE
GFS) APPEARS TO DEPICT MORE CONTINUITY IN A SUBTROPICAL JET THAT
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA/MSA BEGINNING TONIGHT. FURTHER...THE
GFS (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM) DETERMINISTIC PROG A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER/SFC FORCING TO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION THURSDAY. SREF MEAN PCPN/TEXAS
TECH WRF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT ADDS CREDENCE TO CONVECTION FOR
THURSDAY AFTN. SELECTED NAM SOUNDINGS PROG SBCAPE VALUES
2000-3000J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTN. BRN VALUES
CONSISTENT WITH MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS. CONCUR WITH SLGT RISK OF
SEVERE FROM SPC. ADDED SVR WORDING TO ZFP FOR THURSDAY AFTN/
EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
OWING TO THE UPPER JET.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN WL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LET UP IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN
THE WEEK.  ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 45 KT ALONG WITH MUCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUCAPES TO REACH 4000+ J/KG WL SET THE STAGE FOR FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN MCS (LKLY
INITIATED FROM A S/WV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 90-100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET)
WL LKLY BE ONGOING AND/OR DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EWX CWA EXTENDING INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALONG AND NORTH
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS MCS WL LKLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS IT PROPAGATES ESEWD.  THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR
TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ATTM.  RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY (CAPES A BIT LESS AT AROUND 2500 J/KG) WITH PERHAPS AN
OLD OUTFLOW FROM FRIDAY`S CONVECTION WL BE IN PLAY ON SATURDAY.
WITH LESS FORCING...WL ONLY GO WITH CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY.  A
PARTIAL DRYING PROCESS WL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WL HELP TO
LOWER RAIN CHANCES.  RAIN CHANCES WL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY TUE AS A
STALLED FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH OF THE CWA AND HELPS TO USHER IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIMRASS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WL BE
TRICKY WITH CONVECTION IN THE FCST AND WET SOILS.  WL GENERALLY GO
WITH AT OR BELOW CLIMO AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  70  81  68  /  20  60  40  60  40
VICTORIA          67  79  69  79  65  /  20  60  50  60  50
LAREDO            68  85  70  85  66  /  20  40  30  50  30
ALICE             68  82  70  83  67  /  20  50  40  60  40
ROCKPORT          71  77  70  77  68  /  20  50  40  60  40
COTULLA           67  81  67  82  63  /  20  50  40  60  30
KINGSVILLE        69  82  70  83  68  /  20  50  40  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       71  77  71  79  69  /  20  50  40  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 152117
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
417 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT
WITH REGARD TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. MOST RECENT
NSSL/TEXAS TECH WRF RUNS/SREF MEAN QPF DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH
ACTIVITY TONIGHT. YET...THE NAM DETERMINISTIC (RELATIVE THE THE
GFS) APPEARS TO DEPICT MORE CONTINUITY IN A SUBTROPICAL JET THAT
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA/MSA BEGINNING TONIGHT. FURTHER...THE
GFS (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM) DETERMINISTIC PROG A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER/SFC FORCING TO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION THURSDAY. SREF MEAN PCPN/TEXAS
TECH WRF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT ADDS CREDENCE TO CONVECTION FOR
THURSDAY AFTN. SELECTED NAM SOUNDINGS PROG SBCAPE VALUES
2000-3000J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTN. BRN VALUES
CONSISTENT WITH MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS. CONCUR WITH SLGT RISK OF
SEVERE FROM SPC. ADDED SVR WORDING TO ZFP FOR THURSDAY AFTN/
EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
OWING TO THE UPPER JET.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN WL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LET UP IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN
THE WEEK.  ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 45 KT ALONG WITH MUCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUCAPES TO REACH 4000+ J/KG WL SET THE STAGE FOR FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN MCS (LKLY
INITIATED FROM A S/WV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 90-100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET)
WL LKLY BE ONGOING AND/OR DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EWX CWA EXTENDING INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALONG AND NORTH
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS MCS WL LKLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS IT PROPAGATES ESEWD.  THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR
TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ATTM.  RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY (CAPES A BIT LESS AT AROUND 2500 J/KG) WITH PERHAPS AN
OLD OUTFLOW FROM FRIDAY`S CONVECTION WL BE IN PLAY ON SATURDAY.
WITH LESS FORCING...WL ONLY GO WITH CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY.  A
PARTIAL DRYING PROCESS WL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WL HELP TO
LOWER RAIN CHANCES.  RAIN CHANCES WL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY TUE AS A
STALLED FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH OF THE CWA AND HELPS TO USHER IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIMRASS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WL BE
TRICKY WITH CONVECTION IN THE FCST AND WET SOILS.  WL GENERALLY GO
WITH AT OR BELOW CLIMO AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  70  81  68  /  20  60  40  60  40
VICTORIA          67  79  69  79  65  /  20  60  50  60  50
LAREDO            68  85  70  85  66  /  20  40  30  50  30
ALICE             68  82  70  83  67  /  20  50  40  60  40
ROCKPORT          71  77  70  77  68  /  20  50  40  60  40
COTULLA           67  81  67  82  63  /  20  50  40  60  30
KINGSVILLE        69  82  70  83  68  /  20  50  40  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       71  77  71  79  69  /  20  50  40  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 152117
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
417 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT
WITH REGARD TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. MOST RECENT
NSSL/TEXAS TECH WRF RUNS/SREF MEAN QPF DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH
ACTIVITY TONIGHT. YET...THE NAM DETERMINISTIC (RELATIVE THE THE
GFS) APPEARS TO DEPICT MORE CONTINUITY IN A SUBTROPICAL JET THAT
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA/MSA BEGINNING TONIGHT. FURTHER...THE
GFS (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM) DETERMINISTIC PROG A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER/SFC FORCING TO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION THURSDAY. SREF MEAN PCPN/TEXAS
TECH WRF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT ADDS CREDENCE TO CONVECTION FOR
THURSDAY AFTN. SELECTED NAM SOUNDINGS PROG SBCAPE VALUES
2000-3000J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTN. BRN VALUES
CONSISTENT WITH MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS. CONCUR WITH SLGT RISK OF
SEVERE FROM SPC. ADDED SVR WORDING TO ZFP FOR THURSDAY AFTN/
EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
OWING TO THE UPPER JET.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN WL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LET UP IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN
THE WEEK.  ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AOA 45 KT ALONG WITH MUCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUCAPES TO REACH 4000+ J/KG WL SET THE STAGE FOR FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN MCS (LKLY
INITIATED FROM A S/WV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 90-100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET)
WL LKLY BE ONGOING AND/OR DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EWX CWA EXTENDING INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALONG AND NORTH
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS MCS WL LKLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS IT PROPAGATES ESEWD.  THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR
TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ATTM.  RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY (CAPES A BIT LESS AT AROUND 2500 J/KG) WITH PERHAPS AN
OLD OUTFLOW FROM FRIDAY`S CONVECTION WL BE IN PLAY ON SATURDAY.
WITH LESS FORCING...WL ONLY GO WITH CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY.  A
PARTIAL DRYING PROCESS WL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WL HELP TO
LOWER RAIN CHANCES.  RAIN CHANCES WL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY TUE AS A
STALLED FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH OF THE CWA AND HELPS TO USHER IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIMRASS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WL BE
TRICKY WITH CONVECTION IN THE FCST AND WET SOILS.  WL GENERALLY GO
WITH AT OR BELOW CLIMO AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  70  81  68  /  20  60  40  60  40
VICTORIA          67  79  69  79  65  /  20  60  50  60  50
LAREDO            68  85  70  85  66  /  20  40  30  50  30
ALICE             68  82  70  83  67  /  20  50  40  60  40
ROCKPORT          71  77  70  77  68  /  20  50  40  60  40
COTULLA           67  81  67  82  63  /  20  50  40  60  30
KINGSVILLE        69  82  70  83  68  /  20  50  40  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       71  77  71  79  69  /  20  50  40  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 151805
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
105 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR THIS AFTN/EVENING EXCEPT MVFR
NEAR/DRG DEVELOPING ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS...ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 77
AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16...ANTICIPATED DRG THE 06-13Z THU PERIOD.
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...COMMENCING DRG THE
MID/LATE MORNING THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FCST TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CWA/MSA FOR TODAY OWING TO CURRENT CONVECTION/UPPER JET
DYNAMICS (GFS DETERMINISTIC)/SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY (MSAS
THETA-E.)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HAVE IMPROVED TAF CATEGORIES TO MAINLY VFR THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. LIKELY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING. HAVE AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR CIG
DEVELOPING FOR ALL SITES ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST WILL BE IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME WHEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. BUT FIRST...STILL HAVE SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AREA TODAY AND COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. SHOULD BE JUST
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT WE/LL SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

THE BIGGER STORY IS THURSDAY AS A NUMBER OF FACTORS ARE LINING UP
FOR A POTENTIAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. ON THE LARGE SCALE...HAVE
NOSE OF SUBTROPICAL JET PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME KEEPS US IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUAD...OR RIGHT UNDER THE NOSE OF THE JETSTREAK. NOT A LOT GOING
ON AT THE 500MB LEVEL...BUT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE
ROTATING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ONE FACTOR THAT IS SOMEWHAT
UNUSUAL FOR US THIS TIME OF YEAR IS RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-500 MB RANGE. THIS SHOULD KEEP US LARGELY UNCAPPED
DURING THE DAY. WITH JUST A BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PRIME
THE ATMOSPHERE WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING SURFACE BASED CAPE. 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 50-60KT BY THE AFTERNOON. ITS UNCLEAR AT
THIS TIME WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE...BUT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR CELLULAR STORMS...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. HAVE
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION
TO THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND THE OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A TORNADO...WILL ALSO BE CONCERNED WITH FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING EVEN MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ON GROUNDS THAT ARE NEARLY
SATURATED FROM TUESDAY RAINS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS SIMILAR CONDITIONS
RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...SENDING A STRONG ROUND OF ENERGY AT H5 MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE UPPER JET WILL WEAKEN AS COMPARED
TO THURSDAY YET STILL REMAIN AN INFLUENCE WITH A 90-100KT FLOW. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED WITH OVER 1.7 INCH
PWATS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CAPE VALUES ONCE AGAIN AVERAGING 2500
J/KG TO 3500 J/KG. THE BIGGER CAVEAT IS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT H85 WITH 17C-20C DEG...SO CIN VALUES ARE A
BIT HIGHER. BUT ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTH TEXAS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAPPING. SO ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME
SEVERE...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS SAID...SPC HAS FRIDAY NIGHT IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE MIDLEVEL LOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LOW BECOMES ABSORBED
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH LEADING TO THE LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW SOUTH THE CWA WILL LIFT THE TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST...DRYING AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  81  72  81  68  /  20  50  30  60  30
VICTORIA          67  81  68  79  65  /  20  60  50  60  30
LAREDO            67  87  70  85  66  /  20  40  30  40  30
ALICE             68  83  70  83  67  /  20  50  30  60  30
ROCKPORT          71  78  71  77  68  /  20  60  40  60  30
COTULLA           67  83  68  82  63  /  20  40  40  40  30
KINGSVILLE        69  83  71  83  68  /  20  40  30  60  30
NAVY CORPUS       71  79  72  79  69  /  20  50  30  60  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 151805
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
105 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR THIS AFTN/EVENING EXCEPT MVFR
NEAR/DRG DEVELOPING ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS...ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 77
AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16...ANTICIPATED DRG THE 06-13Z THU PERIOD.
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...COMMENCING DRG THE
MID/LATE MORNING THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FCST TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CWA/MSA FOR TODAY OWING TO CURRENT CONVECTION/UPPER JET
DYNAMICS (GFS DETERMINISTIC)/SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY (MSAS
THETA-E.)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HAVE IMPROVED TAF CATEGORIES TO MAINLY VFR THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. LIKELY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING. HAVE AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR CIG
DEVELOPING FOR ALL SITES ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST WILL BE IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME WHEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. BUT FIRST...STILL HAVE SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AREA TODAY AND COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. SHOULD BE JUST
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT WE/LL SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

THE BIGGER STORY IS THURSDAY AS A NUMBER OF FACTORS ARE LINING UP
FOR A POTENTIAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. ON THE LARGE SCALE...HAVE
NOSE OF SUBTROPICAL JET PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME KEEPS US IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUAD...OR RIGHT UNDER THE NOSE OF THE JETSTREAK. NOT A LOT GOING
ON AT THE 500MB LEVEL...BUT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE
ROTATING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ONE FACTOR THAT IS SOMEWHAT
UNUSUAL FOR US THIS TIME OF YEAR IS RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-500 MB RANGE. THIS SHOULD KEEP US LARGELY UNCAPPED
DURING THE DAY. WITH JUST A BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PRIME
THE ATMOSPHERE WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING SURFACE BASED CAPE. 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 50-60KT BY THE AFTERNOON. ITS UNCLEAR AT
THIS TIME WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE...BUT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR CELLULAR STORMS...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. HAVE
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION
TO THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND THE OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A TORNADO...WILL ALSO BE CONCERNED WITH FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING EVEN MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ON GROUNDS THAT ARE NEARLY
SATURATED FROM TUESDAY RAINS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS SIMILAR CONDITIONS
RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...SENDING A STRONG ROUND OF ENERGY AT H5 MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE UPPER JET WILL WEAKEN AS COMPARED
TO THURSDAY YET STILL REMAIN AN INFLUENCE WITH A 90-100KT FLOW. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED WITH OVER 1.7 INCH
PWATS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CAPE VALUES ONCE AGAIN AVERAGING 2500
J/KG TO 3500 J/KG. THE BIGGER CAVEAT IS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT H85 WITH 17C-20C DEG...SO CIN VALUES ARE A
BIT HIGHER. BUT ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTH TEXAS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAPPING. SO ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME
SEVERE...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS SAID...SPC HAS FRIDAY NIGHT IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE MIDLEVEL LOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LOW BECOMES ABSORBED
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH LEADING TO THE LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW SOUTH THE CWA WILL LIFT THE TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST...DRYING AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  81  72  81  68  /  20  50  30  60  30
VICTORIA          67  81  68  79  65  /  20  60  50  60  30
LAREDO            67  87  70  85  66  /  20  40  30  40  30
ALICE             68  83  70  83  67  /  20  50  30  60  30
ROCKPORT          71  78  71  77  68  /  20  60  40  60  30
COTULLA           67  83  68  82  63  /  20  40  40  40  30
KINGSVILLE        69  83  71  83  68  /  20  40  30  60  30
NAVY CORPUS       71  79  72  79  69  /  20  50  30  60  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 151403
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
903 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FCST TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CWA/MSA FOR TODAY OWING TO CURRENT CONVECTION/UPPER JET
DYNAMICS (GFS DETERMINISTIC)/SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY (MSAS
THETA-E.)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HAVE IMPROVED TAF CATEGORIES TO MAINLY VFR THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. LIKELY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING. HAVE AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR CIG
DEVELOPING FOR ALL SITES ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST WILL BE IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME WHEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. BUT FIRST...STILL HAVE SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AREA TODAY AND COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. SHOULD BE JUST
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT WE/LL SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

THE BIGGER STORY IS THURSDAY AS A NUMBER OF FACTORS ARE LINING UP
FOR A POTENTIAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. ON THE LARGE SCALE...HAVE
NOSE OF SUBTROPICAL JET PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME KEEPS US IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUAD...OR RIGHT UNDER THE NOSE OF THE JETSTREAK. NOT A LOT GOING
ON AT THE 500MB LEVEL...BUT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE
ROTATING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ONE FACTOR THAT IS SOMEWHAT
UNUSUAL FOR US THIS TIME OF YEAR IS RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-500 MB RANGE. THIS SHOULD KEEP US LARGELY UNCAPPED
DURING THE DAY. WITH JUST A BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PRIME
THE ATMOSPHERE WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING SURFACE BASED CAPE. 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 50-60KT BY THE AFTERNOON. ITS UNCLEAR AT
THIS TIME WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE...BUT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR CELLULAR STORMS...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. HAVE
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION
TO THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND THE OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A TORNADO...WILL ALSO BE CONCERNED WITH FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING EVEN MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ON GROUNDS THAT ARE NEARLY
SATURATED FROM TUESDAY RAINS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS SIMILAR CONDITIONS
RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...SENDING A STRONG ROUND OF ENERGY AT H5 MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE UPPER JET WILL WEAKEN AS COMPARED
TO THURSDAY YET STILL REMAIN AN INFLUENCE WITH A 90-100KT FLOW. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED WITH OVER 1.7 INCH
PWATS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CAPE VALUES ONCE AGAIN AVERAGING 2500
J/KG TO 3500 J/KG. THE BIGGER CAVEAT IS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT H85 WITH 17C-20C DEG...SO CIN VALUES ARE A
BIT HIGHER. BUT ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTH TEXAS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAPPING. SO ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME
SEVERE...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS SAID...SPC HAS FRIDAY NIGHT IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE MIDLEVEL LOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LOW BECOMES ABSORBED
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH LEADING TO THE LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW SOUTH THE CWA WILL LIFT THE TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST...DRYING AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  70  81  72  81  /  40  20  50  30  60
VICTORIA          81  67  81  68  79  /  30  20  60  50  60
LAREDO            83  67  87  70  85  /  30  20  40  30  40
ALICE             82  68  83  70  83  /  40  20  50  30  60
ROCKPORT          76  71  78  71  77  /  40  20  60  40  60
COTULLA           85  67  83  68  82  /  20  20  40  40  40
KINGSVILLE        82  69  83  71  83  /  40  20  40  30  60
NAVY CORPUS       76  71  79  72  79  /  40  20  50  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 151403
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
903 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FCST TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CWA/MSA FOR TODAY OWING TO CURRENT CONVECTION/UPPER JET
DYNAMICS (GFS DETERMINISTIC)/SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY (MSAS
THETA-E.)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HAVE IMPROVED TAF CATEGORIES TO MAINLY VFR THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. LIKELY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING. HAVE AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR CIG
DEVELOPING FOR ALL SITES ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST WILL BE IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME WHEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. BUT FIRST...STILL HAVE SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AREA TODAY AND COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. SHOULD BE JUST
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT WE/LL SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

THE BIGGER STORY IS THURSDAY AS A NUMBER OF FACTORS ARE LINING UP
FOR A POTENTIAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. ON THE LARGE SCALE...HAVE
NOSE OF SUBTROPICAL JET PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME KEEPS US IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUAD...OR RIGHT UNDER THE NOSE OF THE JETSTREAK. NOT A LOT GOING
ON AT THE 500MB LEVEL...BUT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE
ROTATING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ONE FACTOR THAT IS SOMEWHAT
UNUSUAL FOR US THIS TIME OF YEAR IS RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-500 MB RANGE. THIS SHOULD KEEP US LARGELY UNCAPPED
DURING THE DAY. WITH JUST A BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PRIME
THE ATMOSPHERE WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING SURFACE BASED CAPE. 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 50-60KT BY THE AFTERNOON. ITS UNCLEAR AT
THIS TIME WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE...BUT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR CELLULAR STORMS...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. HAVE
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION
TO THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND THE OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A TORNADO...WILL ALSO BE CONCERNED WITH FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING EVEN MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ON GROUNDS THAT ARE NEARLY
SATURATED FROM TUESDAY RAINS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS SIMILAR CONDITIONS
RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...SENDING A STRONG ROUND OF ENERGY AT H5 MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE UPPER JET WILL WEAKEN AS COMPARED
TO THURSDAY YET STILL REMAIN AN INFLUENCE WITH A 90-100KT FLOW. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED WITH OVER 1.7 INCH
PWATS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CAPE VALUES ONCE AGAIN AVERAGING 2500
J/KG TO 3500 J/KG. THE BIGGER CAVEAT IS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT H85 WITH 17C-20C DEG...SO CIN VALUES ARE A
BIT HIGHER. BUT ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTH TEXAS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAPPING. SO ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME
SEVERE...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS SAID...SPC HAS FRIDAY NIGHT IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE MIDLEVEL LOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LOW BECOMES ABSORBED
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH LEADING TO THE LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW SOUTH THE CWA WILL LIFT THE TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST...DRYING AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  70  81  72  81  /  40  20  50  30  60
VICTORIA          81  67  81  68  79  /  30  20  60  50  60
LAREDO            83  67  87  70  85  /  30  20  40  30  40
ALICE             82  68  83  70  83  /  40  20  50  30  60
ROCKPORT          76  71  78  71  77  /  40  20  60  40  60
COTULLA           85  67  83  68  82  /  20  20  40  40  40
KINGSVILLE        82  69  83  71  83  /  40  20  40  30  60
NAVY CORPUS       76  71  79  72  79  /  40  20  50  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM





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