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000
FXUS64 KCRP 020918
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
418 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE NORTH OF TROPICAL
STORM DOLLY...THAT HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...MOVING
INTO THE GULF WATERS. VALUES ARE RANGE FROM 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AND
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MODELS MOVING THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHILE MODELS SHOW A
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE COAST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED AND KEPT WITH POPS THAT
ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY HAS SYSTEM MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWEST THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. LEANED
TOWARD COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION AS TROPICAL STORM DOLLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS INCREASING SWELLS THAT
ADVANCE NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. SCA IS
IN EFFECT FROM 21Z TODAY UNTIL 21Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS
COULD MAKE FOR ROUGHER MARINE CONDITIONS ALSO. SCATTERED CONVECTION
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...INCREASING SWELLS WITH HIGHER
PERIODS...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL ADVANCE TOWARD
THE COAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GULF FACING BEACHES TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TIDES ARE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS...COULD
SEE TIDE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 2 FEET MSL...ESPECIALLY FOR
BEACHES SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT DETERMINE IF
ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHT FIELD WHICH MOVES AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR
THE WRN CWA EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A PREDOMINATE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR/UPPER
DYNAMICS TO RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION. AFTERWARD...MSTR WL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. YET EXPECT MSTR TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR (AND GFS DETERMINISTIC CIN/CAPE PATTERNS CONSISTENT
WITH) A RETURN TO DIURNAL/NOCTURAL CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION FRIDAY-SUNDAY YET ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY
MONDAY. AT LEAST A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 100F OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SUNDAY OWING TO DRIER CONDITIONS. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100F OR LESS OVR THE CWA DRG THE AFTN HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  78  90  78  90  /  50  30  60  30  40
VICTORIA          93  76  93  77  94  /  50  20  40  20  30
LAREDO           101  80  94  79  92  /  20  20  50  40  40
ALICE             95  77  91  76  91  /  50  20  60  30  40
ROCKPORT          91  81  90  80  88  /  50  30  50  30  40
COTULLA           99  76  94  77  92  /  20  20  40  20  40
KINGSVILLE        94  78  90  77  92  /  50  30  60  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  89  80  87  /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 020918
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
418 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE NORTH OF TROPICAL
STORM DOLLY...THAT HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...MOVING
INTO THE GULF WATERS. VALUES ARE RANGE FROM 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AND
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MODELS MOVING THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHILE MODELS SHOW A
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE COAST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED AND KEPT WITH POPS THAT
ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY HAS SYSTEM MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWEST THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. LEANED
TOWARD COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION AS TROPICAL STORM DOLLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS INCREASING SWELLS THAT
ADVANCE NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. SCA IS
IN EFFECT FROM 21Z TODAY UNTIL 21Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS
COULD MAKE FOR ROUGHER MARINE CONDITIONS ALSO. SCATTERED CONVECTION
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...INCREASING SWELLS WITH HIGHER
PERIODS...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL ADVANCE TOWARD
THE COAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GULF FACING BEACHES TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TIDES ARE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS...COULD
SEE TIDE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 2 FEET MSL...ESPECIALLY FOR
BEACHES SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT DETERMINE IF
ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHT FIELD WHICH MOVES AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR
THE WRN CWA EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A PREDOMINATE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR/UPPER
DYNAMICS TO RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION. AFTERWARD...MSTR WL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. YET EXPECT MSTR TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR (AND GFS DETERMINISTIC CIN/CAPE PATTERNS CONSISTENT
WITH) A RETURN TO DIURNAL/NOCTURAL CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION FRIDAY-SUNDAY YET ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY
MONDAY. AT LEAST A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 100F OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SUNDAY OWING TO DRIER CONDITIONS. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100F OR LESS OVR THE CWA DRG THE AFTN HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  78  90  78  90  /  50  30  60  30  40
VICTORIA          93  76  93  77  94  /  50  20  40  20  30
LAREDO           101  80  94  79  92  /  20  20  50  40  40
ALICE             95  77  91  76  91  /  50  20  60  30  40
ROCKPORT          91  81  90  80  88  /  50  30  50  30  40
COTULLA           99  76  94  77  92  /  20  20  40  20  40
KINGSVILLE        94  78  90  77  92  /  50  30  60  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  89  80  87  /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 020537 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S.
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM BETWEEN 08-09Z OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AND REACHING LRD AREA BETWEEN 10-14Z. LIGHT LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WILL LEAD TO FOG FORMING THERE
AROUND 09Z WITH MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED BUT IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. THE
GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS VERY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL
AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND EARLY THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND TO
THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS BUT IFR VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL AFFECT LRD AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS MOVING BACK INTO THE CRP AREA BY 03-06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  88  77  91  78  /  30  70  40  40  20
VICTORIA          77  92  76  94  76  /  20  50  20  30  10
LAREDO            79  93  78  95  79  /  10  60  30  40  30
ALICE             77  88  75  92  76  /  20  70  30  40  20
ROCKPORT          81  88  79  90  80  /  30  60  30  40  20
COTULLA           77  93  76  93  76  /  10  40  30  40  30
KINGSVILLE        78  88  76  91  77  /  30  70  40  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  88  79  90  81  /  30  70  40  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 020537 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S.
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM BETWEEN 08-09Z OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AND REACHING LRD AREA BETWEEN 10-14Z. LIGHT LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WILL LEAD TO FOG FORMING THERE
AROUND 09Z WITH MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED BUT IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. THE
GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS VERY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL
AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND EARLY THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND TO
THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS BUT IFR VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL AFFECT LRD AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS MOVING BACK INTO THE CRP AREA BY 03-06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  88  77  91  78  /  30  70  40  40  20
VICTORIA          77  92  76  94  76  /  20  50  20  30  10
LAREDO            79  93  78  95  79  /  10  60  30  40  30
ALICE             77  88  75  92  76  /  20  70  30  40  20
ROCKPORT          81  88  79  90  80  /  30  60  30  40  20
COTULLA           77  93  76  93  76  /  10  40  30  40  30
KINGSVILLE        78  88  76  91  77  /  30  70  40  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  88  79  90  81  /  30  70  40  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 020054
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
754 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPGRADED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BASED ON EXPECTED SWELL HEIGHTS/PERIOD
AND WIND.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MSTR WL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
NEAR THE COAST. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND THEN
TRANSITIONING WESTWARD DRG THE AFTN HOURS. GENERALLY LGT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LESS CONVECTION
NOTICED ON RADAR AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DESPITE THE NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AVAILABLE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE WEAK
THETA-E RIDGE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MOISTURE
INCREASES HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER HOWEVER BRING AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THIS SAID...POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
BEGINNING TUESDAY. AS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY. DID EXTEND HIGH END CHANCE POPS FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WATERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MADE MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES KEEPING RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TO NEAR 100 OUT WEST DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
PROG TO BE PUSHING INLAND OVER NE MX AT START OF LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER CWA /ASSUMING TD5 DOES
NOT INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEEP MOISTURE FROM OVERSPREADING THE
REGION/. WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POPS OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS AXIS OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF LOW CONVECTIVE TEMP VALUES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. REMNANTS OF TD5 SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE LIKELY
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA /GREATEST VALUES ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEARLY AREAWIDE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. ECMWF/CMC ARE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC AND SLIGHT GFS
BLEND FOR POPS. MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS PROG TO EXIT THE REGION BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAILY CONVECTION EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT IS PROG BY THE
ECMWF/GFS TO STALL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE CMC WANTS TO BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/GFS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ ON
WED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DETERMINED BY
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS /WHICH ARE NOW STARTING TO
SLOWLY COOL/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  88  77  /  20  50  30  70  40
VICTORIA          77  94  77  92  76  /  20  50  20  50  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  93  78  /  10  20  10  60  30
ALICE             76  95  77  88  75  /  10  50  20  70  30
ROCKPORT          81  91  81  88  79  /  30  40  30  60  30
COTULLA           77  98  77  93  76  /  10  20  10  40  30
KINGSVILLE        78  93  78  88  76  /  20  50  30  70  40
NAVY CORPUS       81  90  81  88  79  /  20  40  30  70  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION
IB/90...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 012053
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
353 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LESS CONVECTION
NOTICED ON RADAR AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DESPITE THE NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AVAILABLE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE WEAK
THETA-E RIDGE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MOISTURE
INCREASES HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER HOWEVER BRING AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THIS SAID...POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
BEGINNING TUESDAY. AS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY. DID EXTEND HIGH END CHANCE POPS FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WATERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MADE MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES KEEPING RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TO NEAR 100 OUT WEST DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
PROG TO BE PUSHING INLAND OVER NE MX AT START OF LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER CWA /ASSUMING TD5 DOES
NOT INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEEP MOISTURE FROM OVERSPREADING THE
REGION/. WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POPS OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS AXIS OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF LOW CONVECTIVE TEMP VALUES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. REMNANTS OF TD5 SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE LIKELY
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA /GREATEST VALUES ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEARLY AREAWIDE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. ECMWF/CMC ARE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC AND SLIGHT GFS
BLEND FOR POPS. MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS PROG TO EXIT THE REGION BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAILY CONVECTION EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT IS PROG BY THE
ECMWF/GFS TO STALL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE CMC WANTS TO BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/GFS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ ON
WED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DETERMINED BY
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS /WHICH ARE NOW STARTING TO
SLOWLY COOL/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  88  77  /  20  50  30  70  40
VICTORIA          77  94  77  92  76  /  20  50  20  50  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  93  78  /  10  20  10  60  30
ALICE             76  95  77  88  75  /  10  50  20  70  30
ROCKPORT          81  91  81  88  79  /  30  40  30  60  30
COTULLA           77  98  77  93  76  /  10  20  10  40  30
KINGSVILLE        78  93  78  88  76  /  20  50  30  70  40
NAVY CORPUS       81  90  81  88  79  /  20  40  30  70  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 012053
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
353 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LESS CONVECTION
NOTICED ON RADAR AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DESPITE THE NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AVAILABLE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE WEAK
THETA-E RIDGE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MOISTURE
INCREASES HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER HOWEVER BRING AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THIS SAID...POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
BEGINNING TUESDAY. AS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY. DID EXTEND HIGH END CHANCE POPS FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WATERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MADE MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES KEEPING RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TO NEAR 100 OUT WEST DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
PROG TO BE PUSHING INLAND OVER NE MX AT START OF LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER CWA /ASSUMING TD5 DOES
NOT INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEEP MOISTURE FROM OVERSPREADING THE
REGION/. WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POPS OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS AXIS OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF LOW CONVECTIVE TEMP VALUES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. REMNANTS OF TD5 SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE LIKELY
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA /GREATEST VALUES ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEARLY AREAWIDE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. ECMWF/CMC ARE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC AND SLIGHT GFS
BLEND FOR POPS. MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS PROG TO EXIT THE REGION BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAILY CONVECTION EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT IS PROG BY THE
ECMWF/GFS TO STALL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE CMC WANTS TO BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/GFS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ ON
WED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DETERMINED BY
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS /WHICH ARE NOW STARTING TO
SLOWLY COOL/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  88  77  /  20  50  30  70  40
VICTORIA          77  94  77  92  76  /  20  50  20  50  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  93  78  /  10  20  10  60  30
ALICE             76  95  77  88  75  /  10  50  20  70  30
ROCKPORT          81  91  81  88  79  /  30  40  30  60  30
COTULLA           77  98  77  93  76  /  10  20  10  40  30
KINGSVILLE        78  93  78  88  76  /  20  50  30  70  40
NAVY CORPUS       81  90  81  88  79  /  20  40  30  70  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 011738 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE TOO
SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT NEAR VCT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z. STRATUS SHOULD FILL IN FROM ALI-VCT...WITH DEVELOPMENT
REACHING WEST TOWARD LRD AROUND 12Z. PROFILE SOUNDING FOR CRP
LOOKS A BIT DRY FOR THE THICKER DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
VFR STRATUS FOR NOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z
FROM EAST TO WEST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE 10-15
KTS...GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM ALI-CRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  78  92  79  89  /  20  20  50  30  50
VICTORIA          95  77  93  77  92  /  20  20  50  20  40
LAREDO           102  79 100  79  94  /  10  10  20  10  50
ALICE             98  77  95  78  91  /  20  10  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          93  80  91  81  88  /  20  30  40  30  50
COTULLA          101  77  98  77  94  /  10  10  20  10  30
KINGSVILLE        96  78  92  79  90  /  20  20  50  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       92  81  90  81  88  /  20  20  40  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 011738 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE TOO
SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT NEAR VCT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z. STRATUS SHOULD FILL IN FROM ALI-VCT...WITH DEVELOPMENT
REACHING WEST TOWARD LRD AROUND 12Z. PROFILE SOUNDING FOR CRP
LOOKS A BIT DRY FOR THE THICKER DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
VFR STRATUS FOR NOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z
FROM EAST TO WEST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE 10-15
KTS...GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM ALI-CRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  78  92  79  89  /  20  20  50  30  50
VICTORIA          95  77  93  77  92  /  20  20  50  20  40
LAREDO           102  79 100  79  94  /  10  10  20  10  50
ALICE             98  77  95  78  91  /  20  10  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          93  80  91  81  88  /  20  30  40  30  50
COTULLA          101  77  98  77  94  /  10  10  20  10  30
KINGSVILLE        96  78  92  79  90  /  20  20  50  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       92  81  90  81  88  /  20  20  40  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 011540 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1040 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...TRENDED THE GRID LIKEWISE. THIS COMBINED WITH ELEVATED
DEW POINTS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SPS CRITERIA
OF 105 TO 109 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THIS LATE
MORNING...TRANSITIONING FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE WEAK THETA-E
RIDGING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE AREAS OF STRATUS/MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG/MVFR VSBYS OVER
THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. EXPECT
THIS CLOUD COVER/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY...WHILE CEILINGS LIFT BUT REMAIN MVFR OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
PREVALENT FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 14-15Z OUTSIDE OF THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SLIGHTLY INLAND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHT. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AROUND
08Z NEAR 1500 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS MOISTURE HAS DECREASED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL
REAMIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281.
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TO 2-2.25 INCHES FOR COASTAL AREAS. NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF INDICATE
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 25H WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY TUESDAY PROVIDING WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
COASTAL BEND. INCREASED POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT FROM THE EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST OVER THE GULF WATERS TUESDAY AND BAYS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SWELLS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG WITH HIGHER PERIODS. THERE WILL BE
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH THREAT INCREASING TO
HIGH RISK FOR TUESDAY...AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT BEGINNING OF LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DEPEND
ENTIRELY ON THE FUTURE PROGRESSION/DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS PROG
THE WAVE TO MOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH MOST
MODELS DEVELOPING A CLOSER CIRCULATION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY
OF THE SYSTEM SOUTH. WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PWATS BACK WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
MADE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...STILL THINK
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS ANY POTENTIAL CIRCULATION
REACHES THE MEXICO COAST. MOISTURE LINGERS THURSDAY...AND WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS...SHOULD STAY IN A
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL STREAMER/SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED
BY EXPECTED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD THEN OCCUR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  78  92  79  89  /  20  20  50  30  50
VICTORIA          95  77  93  77  92  /  20  20  50  20  40
LAREDO           102  79 100  79  94  /  10  10  20  10  50
ALICE             98  77  95  78  91  /  20  10  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          93  80  91  81  88  /  20  30  40  30  50
COTULLA          101  77  98  77  94  /  10  10  20  10  30
KINGSVILLE        96  78  92  79  90  /  20  20  50  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       92  81  90  81  88  /  20  20  40  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 011540 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1040 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...TRENDED THE GRID LIKEWISE. THIS COMBINED WITH ELEVATED
DEW POINTS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SPS CRITERIA
OF 105 TO 109 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THIS LATE
MORNING...TRANSITIONING FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE WEAK THETA-E
RIDGING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE AREAS OF STRATUS/MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG/MVFR VSBYS OVER
THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. EXPECT
THIS CLOUD COVER/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY...WHILE CEILINGS LIFT BUT REMAIN MVFR OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
PREVALENT FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 14-15Z OUTSIDE OF THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SLIGHTLY INLAND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHT. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AROUND
08Z NEAR 1500 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS MOISTURE HAS DECREASED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL
REAMIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281.
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TO 2-2.25 INCHES FOR COASTAL AREAS. NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF INDICATE
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 25H WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY TUESDAY PROVIDING WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
COASTAL BEND. INCREASED POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT FROM THE EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST OVER THE GULF WATERS TUESDAY AND BAYS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SWELLS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG WITH HIGHER PERIODS. THERE WILL BE
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH THREAT INCREASING TO
HIGH RISK FOR TUESDAY...AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT BEGINNING OF LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DEPEND
ENTIRELY ON THE FUTURE PROGRESSION/DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS PROG
THE WAVE TO MOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH MOST
MODELS DEVELOPING A CLOSER CIRCULATION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY
OF THE SYSTEM SOUTH. WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PWATS BACK WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
MADE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...STILL THINK
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS ANY POTENTIAL CIRCULATION
REACHES THE MEXICO COAST. MOISTURE LINGERS THURSDAY...AND WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS...SHOULD STAY IN A
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL STREAMER/SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED
BY EXPECTED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD THEN OCCUR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  78  92  79  89  /  20  20  50  30  50
VICTORIA          95  77  93  77  92  /  20  20  50  20  40
LAREDO           102  79 100  79  94  /  10  10  20  10  50
ALICE             98  77  95  78  91  /  20  10  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          93  80  91  81  88  /  20  30  40  30  50
COTULLA          101  77  98  77  94  /  10  10  20  10  30
KINGSVILLE        96  78  92  79  90  /  20  20  50  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       92  81  90  81  88  /  20  20  40  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 011136 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE AREAS OF STRATUS/MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG/MVFR VSBYS OVER
THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. EXPECT
THIS CLOUD COVER/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY...WHILE CEILINGS LIFT BUT REMAIN MVFR OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
PREVALENT FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 14-15Z OUTSIDE OF THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SLIGHTLY INLAND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHT. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AROUND
08Z NEAR 1500 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS MOISTURE HAS DECREASED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL
REAMIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281.
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TO 2-2.25 INCHES FOR COASTAL AREAS. NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF INDICATE
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 25H WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY TUESDAY PROVIDING WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
COASTAL BEND. INCREASED POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT FROM THE EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST OVER THE GULF WATERS TUESDAY AND BAYS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SWELLS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG WITH HIGHER PERIODS. THERE WILL BE
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH THREAT INCREASING TO
HIGH RISK FOR TUESDAY...AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT BEGINNING OF LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DEPEND
ENTIRELY ON THE FUTURE PROGRESSION/DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS PROG
THE WAVE TO MOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH MOST
MODELS DEVELOPING A CLOSER CIRCULATION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY
OF THE SYSTEM SOUTH. WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PWATS BACK WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
MADE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...STILL THINK
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS ANY POTENTIAL CIRCULATION
REACHES THE MEXICO COAST. MOISTURE LINGERS THURSDAY...AND WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS...SHOULD STAY IN A
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL STREAMER/SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED
BY EXPECTED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD THEN OCCUR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  78  92  79  89  /  20  20  50  30  50
VICTORIA          95  77  93  77  92  /  20  20  50  20  40
LAREDO           102  79 100  79  94  /  10  10  20  10  50
ALICE             98  77  95  78  91  /  20  10  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          93  80  91  81  88  /  20  30  40  30  50
COTULLA          101  77  98  77  94  /  10  10  20  10  30
KINGSVILLE        96  78  92  79  90  /  20  20  50  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       92  81  90  81  88  /  20  20  40  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 011136 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE AREAS OF STRATUS/MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG/MVFR VSBYS OVER
THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. EXPECT
THIS CLOUD COVER/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY...WHILE CEILINGS LIFT BUT REMAIN MVFR OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
PREVALENT FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 14-15Z OUTSIDE OF THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SLIGHTLY INLAND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHT. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AROUND
08Z NEAR 1500 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS MOISTURE HAS DECREASED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL
REAMIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281.
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TO 2-2.25 INCHES FOR COASTAL AREAS. NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF INDICATE
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 25H WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY TUESDAY PROVIDING WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
COASTAL BEND. INCREASED POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT FROM THE EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST OVER THE GULF WATERS TUESDAY AND BAYS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SWELLS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG WITH HIGHER PERIODS. THERE WILL BE
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH THREAT INCREASING TO
HIGH RISK FOR TUESDAY...AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT BEGINNING OF LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DEPEND
ENTIRELY ON THE FUTURE PROGRESSION/DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS PROG
THE WAVE TO MOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH MOST
MODELS DEVELOPING A CLOSER CIRCULATION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY
OF THE SYSTEM SOUTH. WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PWATS BACK WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
MADE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...STILL THINK
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS ANY POTENTIAL CIRCULATION
REACHES THE MEXICO COAST. MOISTURE LINGERS THURSDAY...AND WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS...SHOULD STAY IN A
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL STREAMER/SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED
BY EXPECTED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD THEN OCCUR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  78  92  79  89  /  20  20  50  30  50
VICTORIA          95  77  93  77  92  /  20  20  50  20  40
LAREDO           102  79 100  79  94  /  10  10  20  10  50
ALICE             98  77  95  78  91  /  20  10  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          93  80  91  81  88  /  20  30  40  30  50
COTULLA          101  77  98  77  94  /  10  10  20  10  30
KINGSVILLE        96  78  92  79  90  /  20  20  50  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       92  81  90  81  88  /  20  20  40  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 010915
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
415 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS MOISTURE HAS DECREASED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL
REAMIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281.
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TO 2-2.25 INCHES FOR COASTAL AREAS. NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF INDICATE
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 25H WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY TUESDAY PROVIDING WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
COASTAL BEND. INCREASED POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT FROM THE EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST OVER THE GULF WATERS TUESDAY AND BAYS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SWELLS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG WITH HIGHER PERIODS. THERE WILL BE
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH THREAT INCREASING TO
HIGH RISK FOR TUESDAY...AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT BEGINNING OF LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DEPEND
ENTIRELY ON THE FUTURE PROGRESSION/DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS PROG
THE WAVE TO MOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH MOST
MODELS DEVELOPING A CLOSER CIRCULATION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY
OF THE SYSTEM SOUTH. WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PWATS BACK WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
MADE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...STILL THINK
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS ANY POTENTIAL CIRCULATION
REACHES THE MEXICO COAST. MOISTURE LINGERS THURSDAY...AND WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS...SHOULD STAY IN A
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL STREAMER/SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED
BY EXPECTED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD THEN OCCUR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  78  92  79  89  /  20  20  50  30  50
VICTORIA          95  77  93  77  92  /  20  20  50  20  40
LAREDO           102  79 100  79  94  /  10  10  20  10  50
ALICE             98  77  95  78  91  /  20  10  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          93  80  91  81  88  /  20  30  40  30  50
COTULLA          101  77  98  77  94  /  10  10  20  10  30
KINGSVILLE        96  78  92  79  90  /  20  20  50  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       92  81  90  81  88  /  20  20  40  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 010915
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
415 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS MOISTURE HAS DECREASED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL
REAMIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281.
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TO 2-2.25 INCHES FOR COASTAL AREAS. NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF INDICATE
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 25H WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY TUESDAY PROVIDING WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
COASTAL BEND. INCREASED POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT FROM THE EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST OVER THE GULF WATERS TUESDAY AND BAYS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SWELLS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG WITH HIGHER PERIODS. THERE WILL BE
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH THREAT INCREASING TO
HIGH RISK FOR TUESDAY...AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT BEGINNING OF LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DEPEND
ENTIRELY ON THE FUTURE PROGRESSION/DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS PROG
THE WAVE TO MOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH MOST
MODELS DEVELOPING A CLOSER CIRCULATION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY
OF THE SYSTEM SOUTH. WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PWATS BACK WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
MADE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...STILL THINK
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS ANY POTENTIAL CIRCULATION
REACHES THE MEXICO COAST. MOISTURE LINGERS THURSDAY...AND WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS...SHOULD STAY IN A
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL STREAMER/SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED
BY EXPECTED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD THEN OCCUR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  78  92  79  89  /  20  20  50  30  50
VICTORIA          95  77  93  77  92  /  20  20  50  20  40
LAREDO           102  79 100  79  94  /  10  10  20  10  50
ALICE             98  77  95  78  91  /  20  10  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          93  80  91  81  88  /  20  30  40  30  50
COTULLA          101  77  98  77  94  /  10  10  20  10  30
KINGSVILLE        96  78  92  79  90  /  20  20  50  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       92  81  90  81  88  /  20  20  40  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 010543 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...EVEN THOUGH GOES SOUNDER SHOWS THAT AIR MASS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS HAS DRIED OUT SOME DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THERE
REMAINS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED AREAS OF STRATUS/MVFR CEILINGS FROM HEBBRONVILLE TO
BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE WEAK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHOULD SEE AREAS OF FOG FORM FROM ALICE TO
BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BUT IFR VSBYS COULD
OCCUR FROM 09-13Z IN THE VICTORIA AREA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME PREVALENT BETWEEN 14-15Z. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN INLAND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELD (500MB)
OVER THE COAST. COPIOUS MSTR REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL BEND/MSA
THIS EVENING (GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES.) NAM AND GFS DIVERGE WITH
REGARD TO CIN VALUES OVER LAND OVERNIGHT WITH GFS DEPICTING HIGH
VALUES AND THE CORRESPONDING NAM VALUES NEAR NIL. WL COMPROMISE
WITH INTRODUCTION OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SREF QPF
PROBABILITIES.) ANTICIPATE THAT WIND WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
BELOW SCEC OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT (NAM/GFS/LOCAL
ARW/RAP DETERMINISTIC.) THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR FOG OVER MAINLY
THE WRN CWA OVERNIGHT YET NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO GRIDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  79  87  78  /  20  40  30  60  30
VICTORIA          77  94  77  91  76  /  20  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            78 100  80  96  80  /  10  20  10  40  20
ALICE             77  95  77  89  77  /  10  40  20  60  20
ROCKPORT          80  89  80  87  80  /  30  40  30  60  30
COTULLA           77  99  77  94  76  /  10  20  10  30  20
KINGSVILLE        78  91  78  88  79  /  20  40  30  60  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  88  80  87  80  /  30  40  30  60  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 010543 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...EVEN THOUGH GOES SOUNDER SHOWS THAT AIR MASS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS HAS DRIED OUT SOME DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THERE
REMAINS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED AREAS OF STRATUS/MVFR CEILINGS FROM HEBBRONVILLE TO
BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE WEAK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHOULD SEE AREAS OF FOG FORM FROM ALICE TO
BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BUT IFR VSBYS COULD
OCCUR FROM 09-13Z IN THE VICTORIA AREA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME PREVALENT BETWEEN 14-15Z. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN INLAND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELD (500MB)
OVER THE COAST. COPIOUS MSTR REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL BEND/MSA
THIS EVENING (GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES.) NAM AND GFS DIVERGE WITH
REGARD TO CIN VALUES OVER LAND OVERNIGHT WITH GFS DEPICTING HIGH
VALUES AND THE CORRESPONDING NAM VALUES NEAR NIL. WL COMPROMISE
WITH INTRODUCTION OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SREF QPF
PROBABILITIES.) ANTICIPATE THAT WIND WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
BELOW SCEC OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT (NAM/GFS/LOCAL
ARW/RAP DETERMINISTIC.) THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR FOG OVER MAINLY
THE WRN CWA OVERNIGHT YET NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO GRIDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  79  87  78  /  20  40  30  60  30
VICTORIA          77  94  77  91  76  /  20  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            78 100  80  96  80  /  10  20  10  40  20
ALICE             77  95  77  89  77  /  10  40  20  60  20
ROCKPORT          80  89  80  87  80  /  30  40  30  60  30
COTULLA           77  99  77  94  76  /  10  20  10  30  20
KINGSVILLE        78  91  78  88  79  /  20  40  30  60  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  88  80  87  80  /  30  40  30  60  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 010258
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
958 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELD (500MB)
OVER THE COAST. COPIOUS MSTR REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL BEND/MSA
THIS EVENING (GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES.) NAM AND GFS DIVERGE WITH
REGARD TO CIN VALUES OVER LAND OVERNIGHT WITH GFS DEPICTING HIGH
VALUES AND THE CORRESPONDING NAM VALUES NEAR NIL. WL COMPROMISE
WITH INTRODUCTION OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SREF QPF
PROBABILITIES.) ANTICIPATE THAT WIND WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
BELOW SCEC OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT (NAM/GFS/LOCAL
ARW/RAP DETERMINISTIC.) THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR FOG OVER MAINLY
THE WRN CWA OVERNIGHT YET NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...RAIN CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS S TX AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND STRATUS TOWARD MON MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF TONIGHT
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-14Z THEN VFR THE
REMAINDER OF MONDAY. WILL NOT MENTION SHRA`S AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...DESPITE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH...POPS DIMINISH OVER SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW AS
BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MOVES BACK OUT OVER THE GULF. TROUGH
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS WEST BY TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE
INCREASES YET AGAIN. INCREASED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PERIOD DUE TO RECENT RAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN
PARTICULAR. MENTIONED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TOMORROW DUE
TO ROUGHLY 7.5 S SWELLS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS ONLY TWEAKED A LITTLE BIT FROM THE MIDNIGHT PACKAGE TO
REFLECT SLIGHT INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...RETURN OF WET SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS PROG TO OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FORECAST IS
PRIMARILY CONTINGENT UPON FUTURE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL WAVE
THAT JUST RECENTLY MOVED INTO BELIZE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WAVE TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED /PER NHC/ ONCE IT EMERGES IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE/SW GULF EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
INTO MX. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PROG TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWEST
AROUND THE SYSTEM...BUT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW /WRAPPED UP/ SYSTEM CAN BECOME. WITH
EXPECTATION OF A WEAKER TYPE OF ORGANIZATION...FEEL THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVING TUESDAY AND MOISTURE CONTENT PEAKING ON WED. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND HAVE WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED POSITIONING OF MOISTURE AXIS
AND PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL WAVE/LOW. GREATEST MOISTURE DEPTH SHIFTS
WEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
IS PROG TO EXIST AREAWIDE /ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY LOW HEIGHT
FIELDS/ FOR AT LEAST A DAILY CHANCE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS WEEK GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE /PWATS
NEARING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/
AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY. HUMID TO OPPRESSIVE FEELING
NIGHTS ARE LIKELY FOR MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
CWA/ GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND RECENT RAINFALL WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HAVE GONE BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS MOST DAYS GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...WITH WED
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE /COOLEST/ DAY OF THE FORECAST.

REGARDING COASTAL/MARINE AREAS...DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR /ESPECIALLY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS/. AN INCREASE IN THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MAY ALSO OCCUR FOR MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGHER SWELLS
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  92  79  /  10  20  20  40  30
VICTORIA          77  96  77  94  77  /  10  20  20  40  20
LAREDO            79 102  78 100  80  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  10  10  10  40  20
ROCKPORT          80  93  80  89  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           76 101  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  78  91  78  /  10  20  20  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  92  80  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010258
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
958 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELD (500MB)
OVER THE COAST. COPIOUS MSTR REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL BEND/MSA
THIS EVENING (GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES.) NAM AND GFS DIVERGE WITH
REGARD TO CIN VALUES OVER LAND OVERNIGHT WITH GFS DEPICTING HIGH
VALUES AND THE CORRESPONDING NAM VALUES NEAR NIL. WL COMPROMISE
WITH INTRODUCTION OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SREF QPF
PROBABILITIES.) ANTICIPATE THAT WIND WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
BELOW SCEC OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT (NAM/GFS/LOCAL
ARW/RAP DETERMINISTIC.) THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR FOG OVER MAINLY
THE WRN CWA OVERNIGHT YET NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...RAIN CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS S TX AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND STRATUS TOWARD MON MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF TONIGHT
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-14Z THEN VFR THE
REMAINDER OF MONDAY. WILL NOT MENTION SHRA`S AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...DESPITE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH...POPS DIMINISH OVER SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW AS
BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MOVES BACK OUT OVER THE GULF. TROUGH
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS WEST BY TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE
INCREASES YET AGAIN. INCREASED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PERIOD DUE TO RECENT RAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN
PARTICULAR. MENTIONED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TOMORROW DUE
TO ROUGHLY 7.5 S SWELLS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS ONLY TWEAKED A LITTLE BIT FROM THE MIDNIGHT PACKAGE TO
REFLECT SLIGHT INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...RETURN OF WET SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS PROG TO OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FORECAST IS
PRIMARILY CONTINGENT UPON FUTURE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL WAVE
THAT JUST RECENTLY MOVED INTO BELIZE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WAVE TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED /PER NHC/ ONCE IT EMERGES IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE/SW GULF EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
INTO MX. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PROG TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWEST
AROUND THE SYSTEM...BUT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW /WRAPPED UP/ SYSTEM CAN BECOME. WITH
EXPECTATION OF A WEAKER TYPE OF ORGANIZATION...FEEL THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVING TUESDAY AND MOISTURE CONTENT PEAKING ON WED. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND HAVE WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED POSITIONING OF MOISTURE AXIS
AND PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL WAVE/LOW. GREATEST MOISTURE DEPTH SHIFTS
WEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
IS PROG TO EXIST AREAWIDE /ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY LOW HEIGHT
FIELDS/ FOR AT LEAST A DAILY CHANCE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS WEEK GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE /PWATS
NEARING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/
AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY. HUMID TO OPPRESSIVE FEELING
NIGHTS ARE LIKELY FOR MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
CWA/ GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND RECENT RAINFALL WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HAVE GONE BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS MOST DAYS GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...WITH WED
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE /COOLEST/ DAY OF THE FORECAST.

REGARDING COASTAL/MARINE AREAS...DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR /ESPECIALLY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS/. AN INCREASE IN THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MAY ALSO OCCUR FOR MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGHER SWELLS
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  92  79  /  10  20  20  40  30
VICTORIA          77  96  77  94  77  /  10  20  20  40  20
LAREDO            79 102  78 100  80  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  10  10  10  40  20
ROCKPORT          80  93  80  89  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           76 101  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  78  91  78  /  10  20  20  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  92  80  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 312323
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
623 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS S TX AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND STRATUS TOWARD MON MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF TONIGHT
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-14Z THEN VFR THE
REMAINDER OF MONDAY. WILL NOT MENTION SHRA`S AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...DESPITE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH...POPS DIMINISH OVER SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW AS
BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MOVES BACK OUT OVER THE GULF. TROUGH
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS WEST BY TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE
INCREASES YET AGAIN. INCREASED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PERIOD DUE TO RECENT RAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN
PARTICULAR. MENTIONED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TOMORROW DUE
TO ROUGHLY 7.5 S SWELLS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS ONLY TWEAKED A LITTLE BIT FROM THE MIDNIGHT PACKAGE TO
REFLECT SLIGHT INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...RETURN OF WET SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS PROG TO OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FORECAST IS
PRIMARILY CONTINGENT UPON FUTURE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL WAVE
THAT JUST RECENTLY MOVED INTO BELIZE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WAVE TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED /PER NHC/ ONCE IT EMERGES IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE/SW GULF EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
INTO MX. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PROG TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWEST
AROUND THE SYSTEM...BUT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW /WRAPPED UP/ SYSTEM CAN BECOME. WITH
EXPECTATION OF A WEAKER TYPE OF ORGANIZATION...FEEL THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVING TUESDAY AND MOISTURE CONTENT PEAKING ON WED. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND HAVE WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED POSITIONING OF MOISTURE AXIS
AND PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL WAVE/LOW. GREATEST MOISTURE DEPTH SHIFTS
WEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
IS PROG TO EXIST AREAWIDE /ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY LOW HEIGHT
FIELDS/ FOR AT LEAST A DAILY CHANCE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS WEEK GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE /PWATS
NEARING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/
AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY. HUMID TO OPPRESSIVE FEELING
NIGHTS ARE LIKELY FOR MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
CWA/ GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND RECENT RAINFALL WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HAVE GONE BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS MOST DAYS GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...WITH WED
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE /COOLEST/ DAY OF THE FORECAST.

REGARDING COASTAL/MARINE AREAS...DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR /ESPECIALLY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS/. AN INCREASE IN THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MAY ALSO OCCUR FOR MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGHER SWELLS
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  92  79  /  10  20  20  40  30
VICTORIA          77  96  77  94  77  /  10  20  20  40  20
LAREDO            79 102  78 100  80  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  10  10  10  40  20
ROCKPORT          80  93  80  89  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           76 101  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  78  91  78  /  10  20  20  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  92  80  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 312323
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
623 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS S TX AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND STRATUS TOWARD MON MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF TONIGHT
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-14Z THEN VFR THE
REMAINDER OF MONDAY. WILL NOT MENTION SHRA`S AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...DESPITE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH...POPS DIMINISH OVER SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW AS
BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MOVES BACK OUT OVER THE GULF. TROUGH
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS WEST BY TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE
INCREASES YET AGAIN. INCREASED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PERIOD DUE TO RECENT RAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN
PARTICULAR. MENTIONED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TOMORROW DUE
TO ROUGHLY 7.5 S SWELLS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS ONLY TWEAKED A LITTLE BIT FROM THE MIDNIGHT PACKAGE TO
REFLECT SLIGHT INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...RETURN OF WET SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS PROG TO OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FORECAST IS
PRIMARILY CONTINGENT UPON FUTURE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL WAVE
THAT JUST RECENTLY MOVED INTO BELIZE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WAVE TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED /PER NHC/ ONCE IT EMERGES IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE/SW GULF EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
INTO MX. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PROG TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWEST
AROUND THE SYSTEM...BUT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW /WRAPPED UP/ SYSTEM CAN BECOME. WITH
EXPECTATION OF A WEAKER TYPE OF ORGANIZATION...FEEL THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVING TUESDAY AND MOISTURE CONTENT PEAKING ON WED. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND HAVE WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED POSITIONING OF MOISTURE AXIS
AND PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL WAVE/LOW. GREATEST MOISTURE DEPTH SHIFTS
WEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
IS PROG TO EXIST AREAWIDE /ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY LOW HEIGHT
FIELDS/ FOR AT LEAST A DAILY CHANCE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS WEEK GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE /PWATS
NEARING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/
AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY. HUMID TO OPPRESSIVE FEELING
NIGHTS ARE LIKELY FOR MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
CWA/ GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND RECENT RAINFALL WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HAVE GONE BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS MOST DAYS GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...WITH WED
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE /COOLEST/ DAY OF THE FORECAST.

REGARDING COASTAL/MARINE AREAS...DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR /ESPECIALLY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS/. AN INCREASE IN THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MAY ALSO OCCUR FOR MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGHER SWELLS
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  92  79  /  10  20  20  40  30
VICTORIA          77  96  77  94  77  /  10  20  20  40  20
LAREDO            79 102  78 100  80  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  10  10  10  40  20
ROCKPORT          80  93  80  89  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           76 101  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  78  91  78  /  10  20  20  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  92  80  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 312029
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...DESPITE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH...POPS DIMINISH OVER SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW AS
BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MOVES BACK OUT OVER THE GULF. TROUGH
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS WEST BY TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE
INCREASES YET AGAIN. INCREASED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PERIOD DUE TO RECENT RAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN
PARTICULAR. MENTIONED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TOMORROW DUE
TO ROUGHLY 7.5 S SWELLS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS ONLY TWEAKED A LITTLE BIT FROM THE MIDNIGHT PACKAGE TO
REFLECT SLIGHT INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...RETURN OF WET SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS PROG TO OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FORECAST IS
PRIMARILY CONTINGENT UPON FUTURE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL WAVE
THAT JUST RECENTLY MOVED INTO BELIZE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WAVE TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED /PER NHC/ ONCE IT EMERGES IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE/SW GULF EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
INTO MX. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PROG TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWEST
AROUND THE SYSTEM...BUT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW /WRAPPED UP/ SYSTEM CAN BECOME. WITH
EXPECTATION OF A WEAKER TYPE OF ORGANIZATION...FEEL THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVING TUESDAY AND MOISTURE CONTENT PEAKING ON WED. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND HAVE WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED POSITIONING OF MOISTURE AXIS
AND PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL WAVE/LOW. GREATEST MOISTURE DEPTH SHIFTS
WEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
IS PROG TO EXIST AREAWIDE /ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY LOW HEIGHT
FIELDS/ FOR AT LEAST A DAILY CHANCE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS WEEK GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE /PWATS
NEARING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/
AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY. HUMID TO OPPRESSIVE FEELING
NIGHTS ARE LIKELY FOR MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
CWA/ GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND RECENT RAINFALL WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HAVE GONE BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS MOST DAYS GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...WITH WED
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE /COOLEST/ DAY OF THE FORECAST.

REGARDING COASTAL/MARINE AREAS...DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR /ESPECIALLY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS/. AN INCREASE IN THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MAY ALSO OCCUR FOR MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGHER SWELLS
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  92  79  /  10  20  20  40  30
VICTORIA          77  96  77  94  77  /  10  20  20  40  20
LAREDO            79 102  78 100  80  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  10  10  10  40  20
ROCKPORT          80  93  80  89  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           76 101  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  78  91  78  /  10  20  20  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  92  80  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 312029
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...DESPITE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH...POPS DIMINISH OVER SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW AS
BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MOVES BACK OUT OVER THE GULF. TROUGH
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS WEST BY TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE
INCREASES YET AGAIN. INCREASED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PERIOD DUE TO RECENT RAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN
PARTICULAR. MENTIONED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TOMORROW DUE
TO ROUGHLY 7.5 S SWELLS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS ONLY TWEAKED A LITTLE BIT FROM THE MIDNIGHT PACKAGE TO
REFLECT SLIGHT INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...RETURN OF WET SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS PROG TO OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FORECAST IS
PRIMARILY CONTINGENT UPON FUTURE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL WAVE
THAT JUST RECENTLY MOVED INTO BELIZE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WAVE TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED /PER NHC/ ONCE IT EMERGES IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE/SW GULF EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
INTO MX. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PROG TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWEST
AROUND THE SYSTEM...BUT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW /WRAPPED UP/ SYSTEM CAN BECOME. WITH
EXPECTATION OF A WEAKER TYPE OF ORGANIZATION...FEEL THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVING TUESDAY AND MOISTURE CONTENT PEAKING ON WED. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND HAVE WIDESPREAD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED POSITIONING OF MOISTURE AXIS
AND PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL WAVE/LOW. GREATEST MOISTURE DEPTH SHIFTS
WEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
IS PROG TO EXIST AREAWIDE /ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY LOW HEIGHT
FIELDS/ FOR AT LEAST A DAILY CHANCE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS WEEK GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE /PWATS
NEARING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/
AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY. HUMID TO OPPRESSIVE FEELING
NIGHTS ARE LIKELY FOR MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
CWA/ GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND RECENT RAINFALL WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HAVE GONE BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS MOST DAYS GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...WITH WED
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE /COOLEST/ DAY OF THE FORECAST.

REGARDING COASTAL/MARINE AREAS...DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR /ESPECIALLY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS/. AN INCREASE IN THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MAY ALSO OCCUR FOR MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGHER SWELLS
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  92  79  /  10  20  20  40  30
VICTORIA          77  96  77  94  77  /  10  20  20  40  20
LAREDO            79 102  78 100  80  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  10  10  10  40  20
ROCKPORT          80  93  80  89  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           76 101  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  78  91  78  /  10  20  20  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  92  80  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 311729
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER COASTAL
PLAINS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS. TIMING OF VCSH/VCTS GENERALLY REFLECTS THIS TREND AT ALL
SITES. MOSTLY VFR DESPITE THE VCSH/VCTS...WITH MAYBE SOME TEMPO
MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KALI KCRP AND KVCT IN THE
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO
REFLECT SLOWED WARMING AS A RESULT OF RAINFALL OVER SOME
AREAS...BUT OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS LEFT
UNTOUCHED. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE CRP AND ALI TAF SITES. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...AFFECTING MOSTLY CRP/VCT SITES. MAINLY MVFR CIGS
SHOULD BE AT ALL TAF SITES BY AFTERNOON. DECREASING COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD PUSH WESTWARD TO ALI/LRD TAF SITES. FOR NOW HAVE VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST SITES...BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A SIMILAR STORY TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING
OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...BUT LESS
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS SUPPOSED TO
SHIFT WEST TODAY...BUT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER
INLAND. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES START TO SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY...AND HAVE
30/40 POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS
AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW...PWAT VALUES SHOULD BE BACK DOWN MORE
TOWARD NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE AREA.

HAVE TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOWER 90S EAST...TO
AROUND 100 WEST. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY WITH FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS. PRETTY CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING
THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THIS MORNING/S 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. DESPITE SYSTEM GOING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPROVE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO SOUTH TEXAS. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND
50 POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND MOS POPS FOR RAIN CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
OVER THE AREA. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY...THEN TEMPS
WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON WED/THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  94  78  /  10  20  10  30  20
VICTORIA          77  96  77  96  77  /  10  20  10  30  20
LAREDO            79 102  78 102  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  97  77  96  76  /  10  10  10  30  10
ROCKPORT          80  93  80  91  81  /  10  20  20  30  20
COTULLA           76 101  77 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  78  96  77  /  10  20  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  92  80  92  81  /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 311729
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER COASTAL
PLAINS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS. TIMING OF VCSH/VCTS GENERALLY REFLECTS THIS TREND AT ALL
SITES. MOSTLY VFR DESPITE THE VCSH/VCTS...WITH MAYBE SOME TEMPO
MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KALI KCRP AND KVCT IN THE
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO
REFLECT SLOWED WARMING AS A RESULT OF RAINFALL OVER SOME
AREAS...BUT OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS LEFT
UNTOUCHED. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE CRP AND ALI TAF SITES. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...AFFECTING MOSTLY CRP/VCT SITES. MAINLY MVFR CIGS
SHOULD BE AT ALL TAF SITES BY AFTERNOON. DECREASING COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD PUSH WESTWARD TO ALI/LRD TAF SITES. FOR NOW HAVE VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST SITES...BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A SIMILAR STORY TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING
OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...BUT LESS
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS SUPPOSED TO
SHIFT WEST TODAY...BUT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER
INLAND. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES START TO SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY...AND HAVE
30/40 POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS
AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW...PWAT VALUES SHOULD BE BACK DOWN MORE
TOWARD NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE AREA.

HAVE TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOWER 90S EAST...TO
AROUND 100 WEST. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY WITH FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS. PRETTY CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING
THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THIS MORNING/S 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. DESPITE SYSTEM GOING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPROVE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO SOUTH TEXAS. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND
50 POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND MOS POPS FOR RAIN CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
OVER THE AREA. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY...THEN TEMPS
WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON WED/THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  94  78  /  10  20  10  30  20
VICTORIA          77  96  77  96  77  /  10  20  10  30  20
LAREDO            79 102  78 102  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  97  77  96  76  /  10  10  10  30  10
ROCKPORT          80  93  80  91  81  /  10  20  20  30  20
COTULLA           76 101  77 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  78  96  77  /  10  20  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  92  80  92  81  /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 311536
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1036 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO
REFLECT SLOWED WARMING AS A RESULT OF RAINFALL OVER SOME
AREAS...BUT OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS LEFT
UNTOUCHED. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE CRP AND ALI TAF SITES. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...AFFECTING MOSTLY CRP/VCT SITES. MAINLY MVFR CIGS
SHOULD BE AT ALL TAF SITES BY AFTERNOON. DECREASING COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD PUSH WESTWARD TO ALI/LRD TAF SITES. FOR NOW HAVE VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST SITES...BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A SIMILAR STORY TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING
OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...BUT LESS
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS SUPPOSED TO
SHIFT WEST TODAY...BUT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER
INLAND. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES START TO SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY...AND HAVE
30/40 POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS
AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW...PWAT VALUES SHOULD BE BACK DOWN MORE
TOWARD NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE AREA.

HAVE TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOWER 90S EAST...TO
AROUND 100 WEST. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY WITH FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS. PRETTY CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING
THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THIS MORNING/S 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. DESPITE SYSTEM GOING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPROVE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO SOUTH TEXAS. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND
50 POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND MOS POPS FOR RAIN CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
OVER THE AREA. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY...THEN TEMPS
WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON WED/THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  77  95  78  94  /  40  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          92  77  96  77  96  /  50  10  20  10  30
LAREDO           100  79 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             95  76  97  77  96  /  30  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          89  80  93  80  91  /  50  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           99  76 101  77 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  77  97  78  96  /  30  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       89  81  92  80  92  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 311536
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1036 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO
REFLECT SLOWED WARMING AS A RESULT OF RAINFALL OVER SOME
AREAS...BUT OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS LEFT
UNTOUCHED. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE CRP AND ALI TAF SITES. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...AFFECTING MOSTLY CRP/VCT SITES. MAINLY MVFR CIGS
SHOULD BE AT ALL TAF SITES BY AFTERNOON. DECREASING COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD PUSH WESTWARD TO ALI/LRD TAF SITES. FOR NOW HAVE VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST SITES...BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A SIMILAR STORY TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING
OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...BUT LESS
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS SUPPOSED TO
SHIFT WEST TODAY...BUT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER
INLAND. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES START TO SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY...AND HAVE
30/40 POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS
AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW...PWAT VALUES SHOULD BE BACK DOWN MORE
TOWARD NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE AREA.

HAVE TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOWER 90S EAST...TO
AROUND 100 WEST. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY WITH FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS. PRETTY CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING
THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THIS MORNING/S 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. DESPITE SYSTEM GOING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPROVE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO SOUTH TEXAS. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND
50 POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND MOS POPS FOR RAIN CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
OVER THE AREA. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY...THEN TEMPS
WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON WED/THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  77  95  78  94  /  40  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          92  77  96  77  96  /  50  10  20  10  30
LAREDO           100  79 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             95  76  97  77  96  /  30  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          89  80  93  80  91  /  50  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           99  76 101  77 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  77  97  78  96  /  30  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       89  81  92  80  92  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 311130
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE CRP AND ALI TAF SITES. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...AFFECTING MOSTLY CRP/VCT SITES. MAINLY MVFR CIGS
SHOULD BE AT ALL TAF SITES BY AFTERNOON. DECREASING COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD PUSH WESTWARD TO ALI/LRD TAF SITES. FOR NOW HAVE VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST SITES...BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A SIMILAR STORY TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING
OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...BUT LESS
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS SUPPOSED TO
SHIFT WEST TODAY...BUT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER
INLAND. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES START TO SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY...AND HAVE
30/40 POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS
AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW...PWAT VALUES SHOULD BE BACK DOWN MORE
TOWARD NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE AREA.

HAVE TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOWER 90S EAST...TO
AROUND 100 WEST. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY WITH FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS. PRETTY CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING
THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THIS MORNING/S 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. DESPITE SYSTEM GOING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPROVE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO SOUTH TEXAS. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND
50 POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND MOS POPS FOR RAIN CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
OVER THE AREA. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY...THEN TEMPS
WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON WED/THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  77  95  78  94  /  40  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          92  77  96  77  96  /  50  10  20  10  30
LAREDO           100  79 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             95  76  97  77  96  /  30  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          89  80  93  80  91  /  50  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           99  76 101  77 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  77  97  78  96  /  30  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       89  81  92  80  92  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 311130
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE CRP AND ALI TAF SITES. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...AFFECTING MOSTLY CRP/VCT SITES. MAINLY MVFR CIGS
SHOULD BE AT ALL TAF SITES BY AFTERNOON. DECREASING COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD PUSH WESTWARD TO ALI/LRD TAF SITES. FOR NOW HAVE VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST SITES...BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A SIMILAR STORY TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING
OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...BUT LESS
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS SUPPOSED TO
SHIFT WEST TODAY...BUT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER
INLAND. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES START TO SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY...AND HAVE
30/40 POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS
AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW...PWAT VALUES SHOULD BE BACK DOWN MORE
TOWARD NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE AREA.

HAVE TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOWER 90S EAST...TO
AROUND 100 WEST. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY WITH FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS. PRETTY CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING
THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THIS MORNING/S 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. DESPITE SYSTEM GOING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPROVE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO SOUTH TEXAS. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND
50 POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND MOS POPS FOR RAIN CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
OVER THE AREA. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY...THEN TEMPS
WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON WED/THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  77  95  78  94  /  40  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          92  77  96  77  96  /  50  10  20  10  30
LAREDO           100  79 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             95  76  97  77  96  /  30  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          89  80  93  80  91  /  50  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           99  76 101  77 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  77  97  78  96  /  30  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       89  81  92  80  92  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 310916
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
416 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A SIMILAR STORY TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING
OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...BUT LESS
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS SUPPOSED TO
SHIFT WEST TODAY...BUT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER
INLAND. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES START TO SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY...AND HAVE
30/40 POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS
AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW...PWAT VALUES SHOULD BE BACK DOWN MORE
TOWARD NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE AREA.

HAVE TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOWER 90S EAST...TO
AROUND 100 WEST. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY WITH FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS. PRETTY CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING
THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THIS MORNING/S 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. DESPITE SYSTEM GOING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPROVE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO SOUTH TEXAS. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND
50 POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND MOS POPS FOR RAIN CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
OVER THE AREA. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY...THEN TEMPS
WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON WED/THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  77  95  78  94  /  40  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          92  77  96  77  96  /  50  10  20  10  30
LAREDO           100  79 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             95  76  97  77  96  /  30  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          89  80  93  80  91  /  50  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           99  76 101  77 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  77  97  78  96  /  30  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       89  81  92  80  92  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 310916
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
416 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A SIMILAR STORY TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING
OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...BUT LESS
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS SUPPOSED TO
SHIFT WEST TODAY...BUT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER
INLAND. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES START TO SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY...AND HAVE
30/40 POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS
AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW...PWAT VALUES SHOULD BE BACK DOWN MORE
TOWARD NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE AREA.

HAVE TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOWER 90S EAST...TO
AROUND 100 WEST. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY WITH FEWER
SHOWERS/CLOUDS. PRETTY CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING
THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THIS MORNING/S 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. DESPITE SYSTEM GOING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPROVE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO SOUTH TEXAS. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND
50 POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND MOS POPS FOR RAIN CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
OVER THE AREA. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY...THEN TEMPS
WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON WED/THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  77  95  78  94  /  40  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          92  77  96  77  96  /  50  10  20  10  30
LAREDO           100  79 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             95  76  97  77  96  /  30  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          89  80  93  80  91  /  50  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           99  76 101  77 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  77  97  78  96  /  30  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       89  81  92  80  92  /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 302354
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
654 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...ADJUSTED WIND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO SCEC LEVELS
OWING TO EXPECTATION OF VERTICAL MIXING OF GREATER MOMENTUM FROM
ALOFT (NAM DETERMINISTIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES/925MB WIND)
NOTWITHSTANDING SLIGHTLY COOLER SST VALUES OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS (06Z SAT SPORT SST COMPOSITE.)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS S TX WITH ONLY ISOLD
PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. REDVLPMNT IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING INITIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN SHIFTING INLAND BUT
DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD
SUNDAY MORNING MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB
GROUP FOR TSRA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR CRP THEN LATER IN THE
MORNING FOR ALI AND VCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...NE TO SW ORIENTED
INVERTED H5 TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IS PROG TO SHIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. H25 TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PRIMARY FEATURES...IN ADDITION TO
PERSISTENT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN SPEED
CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE NIGHT/MORNING OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INLAND CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH A LULL OF PRECIP EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND APPROACH/DEVELOP TOWARDS/OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE. GREATER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT /AS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND/VICTORIA AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW/AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
WEST. AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS LOWER LEVEL SPEED SHEAR/CONVERGENCE DECREASE WITH
DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND
AREAS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST...AND THUS GREATEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MAX TEMP ON SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS
AFTER A VERY SHORT REPRIEVE. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PRETTY WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE (AND NOT MAKING IT A MAJOR TROPICAL SYSTEM)...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST SOME GOOD ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FROM IT (PWATS OVER 2 INCHES). WITH WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW
STILL OVER THE AREA (AND SOME MODELS SHOWING SOME UPPER
SUPPORT)...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SINCE GFS/ECMWF GRIDDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE AS WE
HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE GETTING CONVECTION RECENTLY WITH PWATS
WELL OVER 2 INCHES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...SO AM GOING TO GO NO MORE
THAN 20 POPS FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS) WHERE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE RATHER LOW FROM WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME...SO THINK
MAY NOT SEE 100 DEGREE OR MORE READINGS WESTERN AREAS AFTER
TUESDAY. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  92  78  95  78  /  30  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  93  77  97  77  /  30  50  10  20  10
LAREDO            79 100  80 102  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  95  76  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  89  80  92  80  /  50  50  10  20  20
COTULLA           75  99  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  77  97  78  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  80  92  80  /  50  40  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 302318
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
618 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS S TX WITH ONLY ISOLD
PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. REDVLPMNT IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING INITIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN SHIFTING INLAND BUT
DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD
SUNDAY MORNING MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB
GROUP FOR TSRA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR CRP THEN LATER IN THE
MORNING FOR ALI AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...NE TO SW ORIENTED
INVERTED H5 TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IS PROG TO SHIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. H25 TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PRIMARY FEATURES...IN ADDITION TO
PERSISTENT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN SPEED
CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE NIGHT/MORNING OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INLAND CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH A LULL OF PRECIP EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND APPROACH/DEVELOP TOWARDS/OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE. GREATER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT /AS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND/VICTORIA AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW/AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
WEST. AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS LOWER LEVEL SPEED SHEAR/CONVERGENCE DECREASE WITH
DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND
AREAS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST...AND THUS GREATEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MAX TEMP ON SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS
AFTER A VERY SHORT REPRIEVE. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PRETTY WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE (AND NOT MAKING IT A MAJOR TROPICAL SYSTEM)...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST SOME GOOD ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FROM IT (PWATS OVER 2 INCHES). WITH WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW
STILL OVER THE AREA (AND SOME MODELS SHOWING SOME UPPER
SUPPORT)...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SINCE GFS/ECMWF GRIDDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE AS WE
HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE GETTING CONVECTION RECENTLY WITH PWATS
WELL OVER 2 INCHES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...SO AM GOING TO GO NO MORE
THAN 20 POPS FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS) WHERE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE RATHER LOW FROM WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME...SO THINK
MAY NOT SEE 100 DEGREE OR MORE READINGS WESTERN AREAS AFTER
TUESDAY. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  92  78  95  78  /  30  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  93  77  97  77  /  30  50  10  20  10
LAREDO            79 100  80 102  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  95  76  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  89  80  92  80  /  50  50  10  20  20
COTULLA           75  99  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  77  97  78  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  80  92  80  /  50  40  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 302318
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
618 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS S TX WITH ONLY ISOLD
PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. REDVLPMNT IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING INITIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN SHIFTING INLAND BUT
DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD
SUNDAY MORNING MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB
GROUP FOR TSRA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR CRP THEN LATER IN THE
MORNING FOR ALI AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...NE TO SW ORIENTED
INVERTED H5 TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IS PROG TO SHIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. H25 TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PRIMARY FEATURES...IN ADDITION TO
PERSISTENT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN SPEED
CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE NIGHT/MORNING OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INLAND CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH A LULL OF PRECIP EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND APPROACH/DEVELOP TOWARDS/OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE. GREATER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT /AS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND/VICTORIA AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW/AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
WEST. AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS LOWER LEVEL SPEED SHEAR/CONVERGENCE DECREASE WITH
DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND
AREAS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST...AND THUS GREATEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MAX TEMP ON SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS
AFTER A VERY SHORT REPRIEVE. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PRETTY WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE (AND NOT MAKING IT A MAJOR TROPICAL SYSTEM)...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST SOME GOOD ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FROM IT (PWATS OVER 2 INCHES). WITH WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW
STILL OVER THE AREA (AND SOME MODELS SHOWING SOME UPPER
SUPPORT)...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SINCE GFS/ECMWF GRIDDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE AS WE
HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE GETTING CONVECTION RECENTLY WITH PWATS
WELL OVER 2 INCHES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...SO AM GOING TO GO NO MORE
THAN 20 POPS FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS) WHERE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE RATHER LOW FROM WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME...SO THINK
MAY NOT SEE 100 DEGREE OR MORE READINGS WESTERN AREAS AFTER
TUESDAY. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  92  78  95  78  /  30  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  93  77  97  77  /  30  50  10  20  10
LAREDO            79 100  80 102  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  95  76  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  89  80  92  80  /  50  50  10  20  20
COTULLA           75  99  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  77  97  78  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  80  92  80  /  50  40  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 302028
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
328 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...NE TO SW ORIENTED
INVERTED H5 TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IS PROG TO SHIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. H25 TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PRIMARY FEATURES...IN ADDITION TO
PERSISTENT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN SPEED
CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE NIGHT/MORNING OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INLAND CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH A LULL OF PRECIP EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND APPROACH/DEVELOP TOWARDS/OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE. GREATER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT /AS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND/VICTORIA AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW/AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
WEST. AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS LOWER LEVEL SPEED SHEAR/CONVERGENCE DECREASE WITH
DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND
AREAS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST...AND THUS GREATEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MAX TEMP ON SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS
AFTER A VERY SHORT REPRIEVE. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PRETTY WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE (AND NOT MAKING IT A MAJOR TROPICAL SYSTEM)...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST SOME GOOD ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FROM IT (PWATS OVER 2 INCHES). WITH WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW
STILL OVER THE AREA (AND SOME MODELS SHOWING SOME UPPER
SUPPORT)...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SINCE GFS/ECMWF GRIDDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE AS WE
HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE GETTING CONVECTION RECENTLY WITH PWATS
WELL OVER 2 INCHES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...SO AM GOING TO GO NO MORE
THAN 20 POPS FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS) WHERE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE RATHER LOW FROM WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME...SO THINK
MAY NOT SEE 100 DEGREE OR MORE READINGS WESTERN AREAS AFTER
TUESDAY. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  92  78  95  78  /  30  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  93  77  97  77  /  30  50  10  20  10
LAREDO            79 100  80 102  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  95  76  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  89  80  92  80  /  50  50  10  20  20
COTULLA           75  99  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  77  97  78  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  80  92  80  /  50  40  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 302028
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
328 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...NE TO SW ORIENTED
INVERTED H5 TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IS PROG TO SHIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. H25 TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PRIMARY FEATURES...IN ADDITION TO
PERSISTENT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN SPEED
CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE NIGHT/MORNING OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INLAND CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH A LULL OF PRECIP EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND APPROACH/DEVELOP TOWARDS/OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE. GREATER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT /AS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND/VICTORIA AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW/AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
WEST. AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS LOWER LEVEL SPEED SHEAR/CONVERGENCE DECREASE WITH
DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND
AREAS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST...AND THUS GREATEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MAX TEMP ON SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS
AFTER A VERY SHORT REPRIEVE. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PRETTY WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE (AND NOT MAKING IT A MAJOR TROPICAL SYSTEM)...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST SOME GOOD ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FROM IT (PWATS OVER 2 INCHES). WITH WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW
STILL OVER THE AREA (AND SOME MODELS SHOWING SOME UPPER
SUPPORT)...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SINCE GFS/ECMWF GRIDDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE AS WE
HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE GETTING CONVECTION RECENTLY WITH PWATS
WELL OVER 2 INCHES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...SO AM GOING TO GO NO MORE
THAN 20 POPS FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS) WHERE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE RATHER LOW FROM WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME...SO THINK
MAY NOT SEE 100 DEGREE OR MORE READINGS WESTERN AREAS AFTER
TUESDAY. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  92  78  95  78  /  30  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  93  77  97  77  /  30  50  10  20  10
LAREDO            79 100  80 102  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  95  76  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  89  80  92  80  /  50  50  10  20  20
COTULLA           75  99  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  77  97  78  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  80  92  80  /  50  40  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 301735 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UDPATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAJORITY OF NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MRNG /MVFR CIGS VCNTY KVCT AT
START OF TAF PERIOD SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME VFR EARLY THIS AFTN/.
ISO SHRA/TSRA XPCTD TO DVLP ACROSS S TX THIS AFTN...BUT COVERAGE
XPCTD TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM /THOUGH
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR ESPECIALLY KVCT/. OVERNIGHT...CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THRU THE NIGHT WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS BY LATE TONIGHT. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA XPCTD TO DVLP
ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME CONVECTION
XPCTD TO APPROACH KCRP/KVCT LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MRNG. HAVE PROB30
OF CONVECTION INCLUDED IN KCRP/KVCT TAFS. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DVLPS SHOULD END BY LATE MRNG WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS OCCRNG.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MORE OF A SERLY
DIRECTION AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  77  96  78  96  /  50  30  30  10  10
VICTORIA          96  76  96  78  97  /  30  30  40  10  20
LAREDO           100  80 100  80 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             93  76  96  77  99  /  30  20  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          89  78  93  82  93  /  40  30  40  10  20
COTULLA           99  76  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  77  97  78  97  /  60  30  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       88  80  93  81  93  /  50  30  30  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 301532 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1032 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR EASTERN ZONES FOR REMAINDER OF
MORNING...BUT INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
BIT OF A TROWAL EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA HAS AIDED
IN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX
DIGGING SOUTH INTO SE COAHUILA MX IS HELPING PULL DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER WEST. OVERALL...EXPECTING STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY...GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE DECREASED COASTAL TEMPS SLIGHTLY...BUT OVERALL LEFT INHERITED
MAX TEMPS INTACT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  77  96  78  96  /  30  30  30  10  10
VICTORIA          96  76  96  78  97  /  30  30  40  10  20
LAREDO           100  80 100  80 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             93  76  96  77  99  /  30  20  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          89  78  93  82  93  /  40  30  40  10  20
COTULLA           99  76  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  77  97  78  97  /  40  30  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       88  80  93  81  93  /  30  30  30  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 301329 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
829 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE SENT TO INCREASE POPS FOR SE ZONES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN
DUVAL...JIM WELLS...AND KLEBERG COUNTIES. A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  77  96  78  96  /  40  30  30  10  10
VICTORIA          96  76  96  78  97  /  30  30  40  10  20
LAREDO           100  80 100  80 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             94  76  96  77  99  /  40  20  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  78  93  82  93  /  40  30  40  10  20
COTULLA           99  76  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        92  77  97  78  97  /  60  30  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       90  80  93  81  93  /  50  30  30  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79







000
FXUS64 KCRP 301329 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
829 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE SENT TO INCREASE POPS FOR SE ZONES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN
DUVAL...JIM WELLS...AND KLEBERG COUNTIES. A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  77  96  78  96  /  40  30  30  10  10
VICTORIA          96  76  96  78  97  /  30  30  40  10  20
LAREDO           100  80 100  80 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             94  76  96  77  99  /  40  20  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  78  93  82  93  /  40  30  40  10  20
COTULLA           99  76  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        92  77  97  78  97  /  60  30  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       90  80  93  81  93  /  50  30  30  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 301127
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND TO CRP AND VCT TAF SITES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MAKE IT
AS FAR INLAND AS ALI IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CLEARER PICTURE TODAY IN
TERMS OF CONVECTION. ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG AND JUST
OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL KEEP FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE
CONVECTION TODAY IN THE MARINE AREAS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND DURING THE DAY
HOWEVER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. PWATS
STILL VERY HIGH...SO WOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITHIN CONVECTION. AS YESTERDAY...EXPECT CONVECTION
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME
CLOUD BREAKS. WILL ALSO EXPECT ONCE AGAIN A REDEVELOPMENT IN
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
PROGRESS WESTWARD TAKING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL
STILL SEE CHANCE POPS EAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN FOR THE BRUSH
COUNTRY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG MUCH OF
THE DAY IN THE EAST...WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. FEWER CLOUDS/LESS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP TO AROUND 100. MILD MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH
VERY MOIST AIRMASS STILL OVER THE AREA. SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER ON
SUNDAY WITH LESS CONVECTION AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...00Z MODELS NOW ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON LABOR DAY. PW
VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MAINLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NHC IS CURRENTLY GIVING
THIS SYSTEM A CHANCE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS IT STANDS NOW...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AS PW/S CLIMB ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE REGION...AND HAVE GENERALLY KEPT POPS IN THE 20 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW (MAY NEED TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS IN FUTURE
FORECASTS). SIMILAR TO THIS LAST SYSTEM...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST AT TIMES NEXT WEEK. WARMEST DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN TEMPS WILL BE SET
BACK A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASES CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  77  96  78  96  /  30  30  30  10  10
VICTORIA          96  76  96  78  97  /  30  30  40  10  20
LAREDO           100  80 100  80 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             94  76  96  77  99  /  20  20  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  78  93  82  93  /  40  30  40  10  20
COTULLA           99  76  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        92  77  97  78  97  /  30  30  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       90  80  93  81  93  /  50  30  30  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 301127
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND TO CRP AND VCT TAF SITES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MAKE IT
AS FAR INLAND AS ALI IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CLEARER PICTURE TODAY IN
TERMS OF CONVECTION. ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG AND JUST
OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL KEEP FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE
CONVECTION TODAY IN THE MARINE AREAS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND DURING THE DAY
HOWEVER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. PWATS
STILL VERY HIGH...SO WOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITHIN CONVECTION. AS YESTERDAY...EXPECT CONVECTION
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME
CLOUD BREAKS. WILL ALSO EXPECT ONCE AGAIN A REDEVELOPMENT IN
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
PROGRESS WESTWARD TAKING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL
STILL SEE CHANCE POPS EAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN FOR THE BRUSH
COUNTRY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG MUCH OF
THE DAY IN THE EAST...WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. FEWER CLOUDS/LESS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP TO AROUND 100. MILD MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH
VERY MOIST AIRMASS STILL OVER THE AREA. SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER ON
SUNDAY WITH LESS CONVECTION AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...00Z MODELS NOW ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON LABOR DAY. PW
VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MAINLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NHC IS CURRENTLY GIVING
THIS SYSTEM A CHANCE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS IT STANDS NOW...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AS PW/S CLIMB ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE REGION...AND HAVE GENERALLY KEPT POPS IN THE 20 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW (MAY NEED TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS IN FUTURE
FORECASTS). SIMILAR TO THIS LAST SYSTEM...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST AT TIMES NEXT WEEK. WARMEST DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN TEMPS WILL BE SET
BACK A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASES CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  77  96  78  96  /  30  30  30  10  10
VICTORIA          96  76  96  78  97  /  30  30  40  10  20
LAREDO           100  80 100  80 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             94  76  96  77  99  /  20  20  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  78  93  82  93  /  40  30  40  10  20
COTULLA           99  76  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        92  77  97  78  97  /  30  30  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       90  80  93  81  93  /  50  30  30  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







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