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000
FXUS64 KCRP 250126 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
826 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL BEND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AXIS HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION PERSISTS. UPDATED COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED T-STORMS FOR EARLY EVENING
HOURS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE TREND THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPING HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 03-05Z ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT
TAF SITES DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE WINDS.
ISOLATED SHRAS OVER THE WATERS WL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AWAY FROM
LAND EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 05Z AS WEAKENING WINDS...ABUNDANT SFC-BASED
MOISTURE AND DRYING ALOFT PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALI AND
VCT TAF SITES WL BE DENSE AT TIMES MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. IFR
CONDITIONS WL REACH LRD BY 09Z AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
CIGS/VSBYS WL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 15-16Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW...MVFR CIGS WL LKLY PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST 18-19Z
FRIDAY ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA OUTSIDE
OF THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH WEAK WINDS EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...AM ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TOMORROW...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BELOW ABOUT 850 MB TO ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND
LOW STRATUS BURN OFF. HAVE GONE QUITE WARM TOMORROW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TOMORROW NIGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. AM NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO GET VERY DENSE OR WIDESPREAD...AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE...REALLY NOT MUCH
TO SAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO APPROACH S TX ON SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE. THIS CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO THE W CWA BY SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS ENE AND COMBINES WITH
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE
WARM WITH PCLDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS. MODELS
PROG THE POTENT UPPER LOW TO BE CTRD NEAR COLORADO BY SUNDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS JUST W OF THE CWA...MOVG E. THIS WILL BRING A DRYLINE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN VERY DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION AHD OF THE DRYLINE BDRY INITIALLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA...SHIFTING TO THE NE CWA THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP DUE TO CAPPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA AND BETTER DYNAMICS BEING N TO NE OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POOL OF MOISTURE PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE NE CWA
ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE LOWEST CIN VALUES. IN
ADDITION...A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POLAR JET OVER N CENTRAL TX
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET JUST S OF BRO`S CWA...WILL PROVIDE UPPER
SUPPORT ACROSS S TX. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
FILTER INTO MUCH OF S TX AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTS NE. AT THE
SFC...MODELS PROG A TROF TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
DIFFER ON WHERE CTR WILL BE POSITIONED. FOR NOW KEPT THE SFC TROF
N-S ORIENTED AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE THROUGH S TX ON TUE. THE GFS IS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HRS THAN THE ECMWF AND IS ALSO WETTER
WITH A POOL OF MOISTURE ADVECTING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. KEPT WITH
THE DRIER SCENARIO DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  71  89  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            71  95  73  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             70  88  71  92  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          71  75  72  82  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           69  95  69  93  71  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        70  85  71  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  75  72  83  73  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 250126 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
826 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL BEND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AXIS HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION PERSISTS. UPDATED COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED T-STORMS FOR EARLY EVENING
HOURS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE TREND THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPING HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 03-05Z ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT
TAF SITES DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE WINDS.
ISOLATED SHRAS OVER THE WATERS WL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AWAY FROM
LAND EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 05Z AS WEAKENING WINDS...ABUNDANT SFC-BASED
MOISTURE AND DRYING ALOFT PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALI AND
VCT TAF SITES WL BE DENSE AT TIMES MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. IFR
CONDITIONS WL REACH LRD BY 09Z AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
CIGS/VSBYS WL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 15-16Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW...MVFR CIGS WL LKLY PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST 18-19Z
FRIDAY ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA OUTSIDE
OF THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH WEAK WINDS EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...AM ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TOMORROW...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BELOW ABOUT 850 MB TO ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND
LOW STRATUS BURN OFF. HAVE GONE QUITE WARM TOMORROW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TOMORROW NIGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. AM NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO GET VERY DENSE OR WIDESPREAD...AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE...REALLY NOT MUCH
TO SAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO APPROACH S TX ON SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE. THIS CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO THE W CWA BY SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS ENE AND COMBINES WITH
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE
WARM WITH PCLDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS. MODELS
PROG THE POTENT UPPER LOW TO BE CTRD NEAR COLORADO BY SUNDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS JUST W OF THE CWA...MOVG E. THIS WILL BRING A DRYLINE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN VERY DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION AHD OF THE DRYLINE BDRY INITIALLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA...SHIFTING TO THE NE CWA THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP DUE TO CAPPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA AND BETTER DYNAMICS BEING N TO NE OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POOL OF MOISTURE PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE NE CWA
ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE LOWEST CIN VALUES. IN
ADDITION...A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POLAR JET OVER N CENTRAL TX
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET JUST S OF BRO`S CWA...WILL PROVIDE UPPER
SUPPORT ACROSS S TX. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
FILTER INTO MUCH OF S TX AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTS NE. AT THE
SFC...MODELS PROG A TROF TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
DIFFER ON WHERE CTR WILL BE POSITIONED. FOR NOW KEPT THE SFC TROF
N-S ORIENTED AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE THROUGH S TX ON TUE. THE GFS IS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HRS THAN THE ECMWF AND IS ALSO WETTER
WITH A POOL OF MOISTURE ADVECTING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. KEPT WITH
THE DRIER SCENARIO DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  71  89  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            71  95  73  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             70  88  71  92  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          71  75  72  82  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           69  95  69  93  71  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        70  85  71  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  75  72  83  73  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 242320
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 03-05Z ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT
TAF SITES DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE WINDS.
ISOLATED SHRAS OVER THE WATERS WL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AWAY FROM
LAND EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 05Z AS WEAKENING WINDS...ABUNDANT SFC-BASED
MOISTURE AND DRYING ALOFT PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALI AND
VCT TAF SITES WL BE DENSE AT TIMES MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. IFR
CONDITIONS WL REACH LRD BY 09Z AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
CIGS/VSBYS WL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 15-16Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW...MVFR CIGS WL LKLY PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST 18-19Z
FRIDAY ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA OUTSIDE
OF THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH WEAK WINDS EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...AM ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TOMORROW...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BELOW ABOUT 850 MB TO ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND
LOW STRATUS BURN OFF. HAVE GONE QUITE WARM TOMORROW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TOMORROW NIGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. AM NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO GET VERY DENSE OR WIDESPREAD...AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE...REALLY NOT MUCH
TO SAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO APPROACH S TX ON SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE. THIS CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO THE W CWA BY SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS ENE AND COMBINES WITH
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE
WARM WITH PCLDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS. MODELS
PROG THE POTENT UPPER LOW TO BE CTRD NEAR COLORADO BY SUNDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS JUST W OF THE CWA...MOVG E. THIS WILL BRING A DRYLINE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN VERY DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION AHD OF THE DRYLINE BDRY INITIALLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA...SHIFTING TO THE NE CWA THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP DUE TO CAPPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA AND BETTER DYNAMICS BEING N TO NE OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POOL OF MOISTURE PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE NE CWA
ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE LOWEST CIN VALUES. IN
ADDITION...A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POLAR JET OVER N CENTRAL TX
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET JUST S OF BRO`S CWA...WILL PROVIDE UPPER
SUPPORT ACROSS S TX. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
FILTER INTO MUCH OF S TX AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTS NE. AT THE
SFC...MODELS PROG A TROF TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
DIFFER ON WHERE CTR WILL BE POSITIONED. FOR NOW KEPT THE SFC TROF
N-S ORIENTED AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE THROUGH S TX ON TUE. THE GFS IS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HRS THAN THE ECMWF AND IS ALSO WETTER
WITH A POOL OF MOISTURE ADVECTING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. KEPT WITH
THE DRIER SCENARIO DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  71  89  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            71  95  73  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             71  88  71  92  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          71  75  72  82  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           69  95  69  93  71  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        70  85  71  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  75  72  83  73  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 242320
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 03-05Z ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT
TAF SITES DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE WINDS.
ISOLATED SHRAS OVER THE WATERS WL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AWAY FROM
LAND EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 05Z AS WEAKENING WINDS...ABUNDANT SFC-BASED
MOISTURE AND DRYING ALOFT PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALI AND
VCT TAF SITES WL BE DENSE AT TIMES MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. IFR
CONDITIONS WL REACH LRD BY 09Z AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
CIGS/VSBYS WL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 15-16Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW...MVFR CIGS WL LKLY PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST 18-19Z
FRIDAY ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA OUTSIDE
OF THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH WEAK WINDS EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...AM ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TOMORROW...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BELOW ABOUT 850 MB TO ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND
LOW STRATUS BURN OFF. HAVE GONE QUITE WARM TOMORROW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TOMORROW NIGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. AM NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO GET VERY DENSE OR WIDESPREAD...AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE...REALLY NOT MUCH
TO SAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO APPROACH S TX ON SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE. THIS CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO THE W CWA BY SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS ENE AND COMBINES WITH
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE
WARM WITH PCLDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS. MODELS
PROG THE POTENT UPPER LOW TO BE CTRD NEAR COLORADO BY SUNDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS JUST W OF THE CWA...MOVG E. THIS WILL BRING A DRYLINE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN VERY DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION AHD OF THE DRYLINE BDRY INITIALLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA...SHIFTING TO THE NE CWA THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP DUE TO CAPPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA AND BETTER DYNAMICS BEING N TO NE OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POOL OF MOISTURE PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE NE CWA
ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE LOWEST CIN VALUES. IN
ADDITION...A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POLAR JET OVER N CENTRAL TX
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET JUST S OF BRO`S CWA...WILL PROVIDE UPPER
SUPPORT ACROSS S TX. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
FILTER INTO MUCH OF S TX AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTS NE. AT THE
SFC...MODELS PROG A TROF TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
DIFFER ON WHERE CTR WILL BE POSITIONED. FOR NOW KEPT THE SFC TROF
N-S ORIENTED AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE THROUGH S TX ON TUE. THE GFS IS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HRS THAN THE ECMWF AND IS ALSO WETTER
WITH A POOL OF MOISTURE ADVECTING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. KEPT WITH
THE DRIER SCENARIO DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  71  89  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            71  95  73  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             71  88  71  92  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          71  75  72  82  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           69  95  69  93  71  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        70  85  71  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  75  72  83  73  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 242038
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA OUTSIDE
OF THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH WEAK WINDS EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...AM ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TOMORROW...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BELOW ABOUT 850 MB TO ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND
LOW STRATUS BURN OFF. HAVE GONE QUITE WARM TOMORROW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TOMORROW NIGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. AM NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO GET VERY DENSE OR WIDESPREAD...AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE...REALLY NOT MUCH
TO SAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO APPROACH S TX ON SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE. THIS CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO THE W CWA BY SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS ENE AND COMBINES WITH
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE
WARM WITH PCLDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS. MODELS
PROG THE POTENT UPPER LOW TO BE CTRD NEAR COLORADO BY SUNDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS JUST W OF THE CWA...MOVG E. THIS WILL BRING A DRYLINE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN VERY DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION AHD OF THE DRYLINE BDRY INITIALLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA...SHIFTING TO THE NE CWA THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP DUE TO CAPPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA AND BETTER DYNAMICS BEING N TO NE OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POOL OF MOISTURE PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE NE CWA
ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE LOWEST CIN VALUES. IN
ADDITION...A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POLAR JET OVER N CENTRAL TX
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET JUST S OF BRO`S CWA...WILL PROVIDE UPPER
SUPPORT ACROSS S TX. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
FILTER INTO MUCH OF S TX AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTS NE. AT THE
SFC...MODELS PROG A TROF TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
DIFFER ON WHERE CTR WILL BE POSITIONED. FOR NOW KEPT THE SFC TROF
N-S ORIENTED AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE THROUGH S TX ON TUE. THE GFS IS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HRS THAN THE ECMWF AND IS ALSO WETTER
WITH A POOL OF MOISTURE ADVECTING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. KEPT WITH
THE DRIER SCENARIO DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  71  89  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            71  95  73  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             71  88  71  92  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          71  75  72  82  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           69  95  69  93  71  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        70  85  71  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  75  72  83  73  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 242038
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA OUTSIDE
OF THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH WEAK WINDS EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...AM ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TOMORROW...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BELOW ABOUT 850 MB TO ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND
LOW STRATUS BURN OFF. HAVE GONE QUITE WARM TOMORROW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TOMORROW NIGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. AM NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO GET VERY DENSE OR WIDESPREAD...AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE...REALLY NOT MUCH
TO SAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO APPROACH S TX ON SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE. THIS CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO THE W CWA BY SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS ENE AND COMBINES WITH
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE
WARM WITH PCLDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS. MODELS
PROG THE POTENT UPPER LOW TO BE CTRD NEAR COLORADO BY SUNDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS JUST W OF THE CWA...MOVG E. THIS WILL BRING A DRYLINE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN VERY DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION AHD OF THE DRYLINE BDRY INITIALLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA...SHIFTING TO THE NE CWA THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP DUE TO CAPPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA AND BETTER DYNAMICS BEING N TO NE OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POOL OF MOISTURE PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE NE CWA
ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE LOWEST CIN VALUES. IN
ADDITION...A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POLAR JET OVER N CENTRAL TX
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET JUST S OF BRO`S CWA...WILL PROVIDE UPPER
SUPPORT ACROSS S TX. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
FILTER INTO MUCH OF S TX AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTS NE. AT THE
SFC...MODELS PROG A TROF TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
DIFFER ON WHERE CTR WILL BE POSITIONED. FOR NOW KEPT THE SFC TROF
N-S ORIENTED AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE THROUGH S TX ON TUE. THE GFS IS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HRS THAN THE ECMWF AND IS ALSO WETTER
WITH A POOL OF MOISTURE ADVECTING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. KEPT WITH
THE DRIER SCENARIO DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  71  89  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            71  95  73  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             71  88  71  92  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          71  75  72  82  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           69  95  69  93  71  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        70  85  71  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  75  72  83  73  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 241740
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1240 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
NIGHTFALL. A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DECK
THICKEN AND BEGIN TRANSITION TO IFR CEILINGS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNSET. AT EASTERN SITES...AM EXPECTING IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG. AFTER SUNRISE...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT VCT TODAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL BE SO
SPOTTY THAT I DIDN`T BOTHER MENTIONING IT IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...CIGS ARE MVFR THIS MORNING EXCEPT AT KVCT (WERE FOR A
WHILE) BUT AM EXPECTING THEM TO COME BACK. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME
VFR NO LATER THAN 16Z (ACCORDING TO FORECAST). QUICK LOOK AT NEW
SOUNDING DATA (NOT SENT YET) INDICATES 1000 AND 2000 FOOT WINDS
ARE BELOW 20 KNOTS OR SO...SO REMOVED WIND SHEAR IN KVCT TERMINAL.
MAIN ISSUE IN THE 12Z TERMINAL FORECAST IS TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FOG AND CIGS...AS WINDS (SURFACE AND ALOFT) DECREASE WITH
BOUNDARY APPROACHING AND FRONT STAYS TO THE NORTH (KEEPING AREA IN
GOOD MOISTURE). FOR NOW...AM GOING WITH LIFR CIGS AT KALI AND KVCT
(AND 1-2 SM BR)...IFR CIGS AT KCRP AND MVFR CIGS AT KLRD...
OCCURRING AFTER 25/06Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WARM AND MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH
MAIN ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRST THE RAIN CHANCES...NOT VERY HIGH BUT 4 KM MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT (NSSL WRF AND
TTU MODELS). THUS...WILL GO WITH A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LIMITED (THAT IS WHAT THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING TOO)...AS MID LEVEL DRYING STARTS TO GET RATHER
GOOD. FOR TODAY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND
HEATING TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED CELL. LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN AREAS ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. JUST
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY AND PROBABLY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD
DIE DOWN BY MID MORNING AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES AND WEAKENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK TO MODERATE BY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF NORTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE VEERING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...PRIMARY WEATHER
IMPACTS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD ARE WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT
CHANCES OF CONVECTION. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY CONVECTION AS SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES...H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE REGION...AND SERLY LLJ
DEVELOPS AROUND SUNSET. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WITH BETTER CHANCES EXISTING TO THE NNW OF
CWA. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY...A THERMAL
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EMERGE EAST OUT OF OLD MX WITH STRONG ADIABATIC
WARMING PROCESSES RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL RETREAT DURING THE
EVENING/SUN NIGHT ONLY TO REPEAT THE DIURNAL PROCESS ON MONDAY. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
EITHER AFTERNOON GIVEN FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMP THRESHOLDS...BUT FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS DUE TO VERY ISOLATED NATURE. A DRY
SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...BUT GIVEN
DRY AIRMASS AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD STILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPS /VALUES CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS/ SHOULD ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MORE
SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON CAA DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  69  88  69  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          89  65  87  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            99  71  97  72  98  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  67  91  69  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          84  69  82  72  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           95  66  93  70  93  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        91  68  88  71  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  69  82  71  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 241740
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1240 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
NIGHTFALL. A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DECK
THICKEN AND BEGIN TRANSITION TO IFR CEILINGS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNSET. AT EASTERN SITES...AM EXPECTING IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG. AFTER SUNRISE...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT VCT TODAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL BE SO
SPOTTY THAT I DIDN`T BOTHER MENTIONING IT IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...CIGS ARE MVFR THIS MORNING EXCEPT AT KVCT (WERE FOR A
WHILE) BUT AM EXPECTING THEM TO COME BACK. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME
VFR NO LATER THAN 16Z (ACCORDING TO FORECAST). QUICK LOOK AT NEW
SOUNDING DATA (NOT SENT YET) INDICATES 1000 AND 2000 FOOT WINDS
ARE BELOW 20 KNOTS OR SO...SO REMOVED WIND SHEAR IN KVCT TERMINAL.
MAIN ISSUE IN THE 12Z TERMINAL FORECAST IS TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FOG AND CIGS...AS WINDS (SURFACE AND ALOFT) DECREASE WITH
BOUNDARY APPROACHING AND FRONT STAYS TO THE NORTH (KEEPING AREA IN
GOOD MOISTURE). FOR NOW...AM GOING WITH LIFR CIGS AT KALI AND KVCT
(AND 1-2 SM BR)...IFR CIGS AT KCRP AND MVFR CIGS AT KLRD...
OCCURRING AFTER 25/06Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WARM AND MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH
MAIN ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRST THE RAIN CHANCES...NOT VERY HIGH BUT 4 KM MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT (NSSL WRF AND
TTU MODELS). THUS...WILL GO WITH A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LIMITED (THAT IS WHAT THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING TOO)...AS MID LEVEL DRYING STARTS TO GET RATHER
GOOD. FOR TODAY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND
HEATING TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED CELL. LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN AREAS ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. JUST
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY AND PROBABLY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD
DIE DOWN BY MID MORNING AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES AND WEAKENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK TO MODERATE BY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF NORTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE VEERING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...PRIMARY WEATHER
IMPACTS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD ARE WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT
CHANCES OF CONVECTION. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY CONVECTION AS SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES...H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE REGION...AND SERLY LLJ
DEVELOPS AROUND SUNSET. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WITH BETTER CHANCES EXISTING TO THE NNW OF
CWA. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY...A THERMAL
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EMERGE EAST OUT OF OLD MX WITH STRONG ADIABATIC
WARMING PROCESSES RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL RETREAT DURING THE
EVENING/SUN NIGHT ONLY TO REPEAT THE DIURNAL PROCESS ON MONDAY. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
EITHER AFTERNOON GIVEN FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMP THRESHOLDS...BUT FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS DUE TO VERY ISOLATED NATURE. A DRY
SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...BUT GIVEN
DRY AIRMASS AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD STILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPS /VALUES CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS/ SHOULD ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MORE
SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON CAA DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  69  88  69  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          89  65  87  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            99  71  97  72  98  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  67  91  69  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          84  69  82  72  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           95  66  93  70  93  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        91  68  88  71  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  69  82  71  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 241138 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE MVFR THIS MORNING EXCEPT AT KVCT (WERE FOR A
WHILE) BUT AM EXPECTING THEM TO COME BACK. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME
VFR NO LATER THAN 16Z (ACCORDING TO FORECAST). QUICK LOOK AT NEW
SOUNDING DATA (NOT SENT YET) INDICATES 1000 AND 2000 FOOT WINDS
ARE BELOW 20 KNOTS OR SO...SO REMOVED WIND SHEAR IN KVCT TERMINAL.
MAIN ISSUE IN THE 12Z TERMINAL FORECAST IS TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FOG AND CIGS...AS WINDS (SURFACE AND ALOFT) DECREASE WITH
BOUNDARY APPROACHING AND FRONT STAYS TO THE NORTH (KEEPING AREA IN
GOOD MOISTURE). FOR NOW...AM GOING WITH LIFR CIGS AT KALI AND KVCT
(AND 1-2 SM BR)...IFR CIGS AT KCRP AND MVFR CIGS AT KLRD...
OCCURRING AFTER 25/06Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WARM AND MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH
MAIN ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRST THE RAIN CHANCES...NOT VERY HIGH BUT 4 KM MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT (NSSL WRF AND
TTU MODELS). THUS...WILL GO WITH A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LIMITED (THAT IS WHAT THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING TOO)...AS MID LEVEL DRYING STARTS TO GET RATHER
GOOD. FOR TODAY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND
HEATING TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED CELL. LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN AREAS ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. JUST
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY AND PROBABLY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD
DIE DOWN BY MID MORNING AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES AND WEAKENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK TO MODERATE BY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF NORTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE VEERING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...PRIMARY WEATHER
IMPACTS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD ARE WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT
CHANCES OF CONVECTION. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY CONVECTION AS SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES...H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE REGION...AND SERLY LLJ
DEVELOPS AROUND SUNSET. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WITH BETTER CHANCES EXISTING TO THE NNW OF
CWA. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY...A THERMAL
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EMERGE EAST OUT OF OLD MX WITH STRONG ADIABATIC
WARMING PROCESSES RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL RETREAT DURING THE
EVENING/SUN NIGHT ONLY TO REPEAT THE DIURNAL PROCESS ON MONDAY. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
EITHER AFTERNOON GIVEN FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMP THRESHOLDS...BUT FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS DUE TO VERY ISOLATED NATURE. A DRY
SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...BUT GIVEN
DRY AIRMASS AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD STILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPS /VALUES CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS/ SHOULD ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MORE
SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON CAA DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  69  88  69  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          89  65  87  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            99  71  97  72  98  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  67  91  69  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          84  69  82  72  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           95  66  93  70  93  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        91  68  88  71  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  69  82  71  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 241138 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE MVFR THIS MORNING EXCEPT AT KVCT (WERE FOR A
WHILE) BUT AM EXPECTING THEM TO COME BACK. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME
VFR NO LATER THAN 16Z (ACCORDING TO FORECAST). QUICK LOOK AT NEW
SOUNDING DATA (NOT SENT YET) INDICATES 1000 AND 2000 FOOT WINDS
ARE BELOW 20 KNOTS OR SO...SO REMOVED WIND SHEAR IN KVCT TERMINAL.
MAIN ISSUE IN THE 12Z TERMINAL FORECAST IS TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FOG AND CIGS...AS WINDS (SURFACE AND ALOFT) DECREASE WITH
BOUNDARY APPROACHING AND FRONT STAYS TO THE NORTH (KEEPING AREA IN
GOOD MOISTURE). FOR NOW...AM GOING WITH LIFR CIGS AT KALI AND KVCT
(AND 1-2 SM BR)...IFR CIGS AT KCRP AND MVFR CIGS AT KLRD...
OCCURRING AFTER 25/06Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WARM AND MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH
MAIN ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRST THE RAIN CHANCES...NOT VERY HIGH BUT 4 KM MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT (NSSL WRF AND
TTU MODELS). THUS...WILL GO WITH A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LIMITED (THAT IS WHAT THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING TOO)...AS MID LEVEL DRYING STARTS TO GET RATHER
GOOD. FOR TODAY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND
HEATING TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED CELL. LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN AREAS ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. JUST
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY AND PROBABLY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD
DIE DOWN BY MID MORNING AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES AND WEAKENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK TO MODERATE BY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF NORTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE VEERING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...PRIMARY WEATHER
IMPACTS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD ARE WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT
CHANCES OF CONVECTION. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY CONVECTION AS SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES...H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE REGION...AND SERLY LLJ
DEVELOPS AROUND SUNSET. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WITH BETTER CHANCES EXISTING TO THE NNW OF
CWA. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY...A THERMAL
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EMERGE EAST OUT OF OLD MX WITH STRONG ADIABATIC
WARMING PROCESSES RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL RETREAT DURING THE
EVENING/SUN NIGHT ONLY TO REPEAT THE DIURNAL PROCESS ON MONDAY. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
EITHER AFTERNOON GIVEN FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMP THRESHOLDS...BUT FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS DUE TO VERY ISOLATED NATURE. A DRY
SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...BUT GIVEN
DRY AIRMASS AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD STILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPS /VALUES CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS/ SHOULD ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MORE
SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON CAA DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  69  88  69  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          89  65  87  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            99  71  97  72  98  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  67  91  69  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          84  69  82  72  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           95  66  93  70  93  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        91  68  88  71  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  69  82  71  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 240824
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
324 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WARM AND MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH
MAIN ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRST THE RAIN CHANCES...NOT VERY HIGH BUT 4 KM MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT (NSSL WRF AND
TTU MODELS). THUS...WILL GO WITH A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LIMITED (THAT IS WHAT THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING TOO)...AS MID LEVEL DRYING STARTS TO GET RATHER
GOOD. FOR TODAY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND
HEATING TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED CELL. LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN AREAS ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. JUST
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY AND PROBABLY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD
DIE DOWN BY MID MORNING AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES AND WEAKENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK TO MODERATE BY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF NORTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE VEERING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...PRIMARY WEATHER
IMPACTS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD ARE WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT
CHANCES OF CONVECTION. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY CONVECTION AS SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES...H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE REGION...AND SERLY LLJ
DEVELOPS AROUND SUNSET. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WITH BETTER CHANCES EXISTING TO THE NNW OF
CWA. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY...A THERMAL
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EMERGE EAST OUT OF OLD MX WITH STRONG ADIABATIC
WARMING PROCESSES RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL RETREAT DURING THE
EVENING/SUN NIGHT ONLY TO REPEAT THE DIURNAL PROCESS ON MONDAY. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
EITHER AFTERNOON GIVEN FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMP THRESHOLDS...BUT FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS DUE TO VERY ISOLATED NATURE. A DRY
SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...BUT GIVEN
DRY AIRMASS AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD STILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPS /VALUES CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS/ SHOULD ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MORE
SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON CAA DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  69  88  69  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          89  65  87  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            99  71  97  72  98  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  67  91  69  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          84  69  82  72  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           95  66  93  70  93  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        91  68  88  71  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  69  82  71  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 240542 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWING SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AM EXPECTING CIGS TO FALL TO IFR AROUND
09Z EASTERN TERMINALS...AND MVFR AT KLRD ABOUT 10Z. CIGS IMPROVE
TO MVFR ABOUT 15Z...THEN VFR BEFORE 18Z. SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES
KLRD AROUND NOON...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. FARTHER
EAST...GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST WITH SEA-BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
KCRP AND KALI. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY AFTER SUNSET...
MEANING LOW CIGS AND/OR MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP BEFORE END OF
TERMINAL FORECAST. FOR NOW...WITH WITH MVFR BR AT KALI AND KVCT
WITH MVFR CIGS AT KCRP OCCURRING AOA 25/02Z. 12Z TERMINAL FORECAST
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THIS MORE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CWA. IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL TRACKING
ACROSS MAVERICK COUNTY EAST OF EAGLE PASS ATTM. THIS STORM
DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID LVL S/W AND DIVERGENCE
IN UPR JET STRUCTURE. AS THIS STORM MOVES ESE...IT WILL ENCOUNTER
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING CAP...AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. QUESTION IS WHEN/WHERE. EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE CURRENT STORM MOTION BRINGS THE STORM INTO LASALLE COUNTY
BETWEEN 10-11PM. THE LATEST HRRR/ARW MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AND TIME FRAME. THUS EXTENDED POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT LAVACA WL QUICKLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS WL BE MVFR BY
02-03Z AND IFR BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WL REACH LRD BY 08Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WL RISE TO VFR LVLS BY 15-16Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF DRT (INITIATED BY THE SIERRA
MADRE) WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NORTH OF LRD BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  87  70  88  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          66  85  69  87  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            73  96  73  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  70  92  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  79  71  80  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           68  94  70  94  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  90  70  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  80  71  81  73  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 240542 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWING SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AM EXPECTING CIGS TO FALL TO IFR AROUND
09Z EASTERN TERMINALS...AND MVFR AT KLRD ABOUT 10Z. CIGS IMPROVE
TO MVFR ABOUT 15Z...THEN VFR BEFORE 18Z. SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES
KLRD AROUND NOON...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. FARTHER
EAST...GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST WITH SEA-BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
KCRP AND KALI. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY AFTER SUNSET...
MEANING LOW CIGS AND/OR MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP BEFORE END OF
TERMINAL FORECAST. FOR NOW...WITH WITH MVFR BR AT KALI AND KVCT
WITH MVFR CIGS AT KCRP OCCURRING AOA 25/02Z. 12Z TERMINAL FORECAST
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THIS MORE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CWA. IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL TRACKING
ACROSS MAVERICK COUNTY EAST OF EAGLE PASS ATTM. THIS STORM
DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID LVL S/W AND DIVERGENCE
IN UPR JET STRUCTURE. AS THIS STORM MOVES ESE...IT WILL ENCOUNTER
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING CAP...AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. QUESTION IS WHEN/WHERE. EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE CURRENT STORM MOTION BRINGS THE STORM INTO LASALLE COUNTY
BETWEEN 10-11PM. THE LATEST HRRR/ARW MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AND TIME FRAME. THUS EXTENDED POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT LAVACA WL QUICKLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS WL BE MVFR BY
02-03Z AND IFR BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WL REACH LRD BY 08Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WL RISE TO VFR LVLS BY 15-16Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF DRT (INITIATED BY THE SIERRA
MADRE) WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NORTH OF LRD BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  87  70  88  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          66  85  69  87  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            73  96  73  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  70  92  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  79  71  80  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           68  94  70  94  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  90  70  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  80  71  81  73  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 240128
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
828 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CWA. IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL TRACKING
ACROSS MAVERICK COUNTY EAST OF EAGLE PASS ATTM. THIS STORM
DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID LVL S/W AND DIVERGENCE
IN UPR JET STRUCTURE. AS THIS STORM MOVES ESE...IT WILL ENCOUNTER
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING CAP...AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. QUESTION IS WHEN/WHERE. EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE CURRENT STORM MOTION BRINGS THE STORM INTO LASALLE COUNTY
BETWEEN 10-11PM. THE LATEST HRRR/ARW MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AND TIME FRAME. THUS EXTENDED POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT LAVACA WL QUICKLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS WL BE MVFR BY
02-03Z AND IFR BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WL REACH LRD BY 08Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WL RISE TO VFR LVLS BY 15-16Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF DRT (INITIATED BY THE SIERRA
MADRE) WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NORTH OF LRD BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
.HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 240128
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
828 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CWA. IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL TRACKING
ACROSS MAVERICK COUNTY EAST OF EAGLE PASS ATTM. THIS STORM
DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID LVL S/W AND DIVERGENCE
IN UPR JET STRUCTURE. AS THIS STORM MOVES ESE...IT WILL ENCOUNTER
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING CAP...AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. QUESTION IS WHEN/WHERE. EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE CURRENT STORM MOTION BRINGS THE STORM INTO LASALLE COUNTY
BETWEEN 10-11PM. THE LATEST HRRR/ARW MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AND TIME FRAME. THUS EXTENDED POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT LAVACA WL QUICKLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS WL BE MVFR BY
02-03Z AND IFR BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WL REACH LRD BY 08Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WL RISE TO VFR LVLS BY 15-16Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF DRT (INITIATED BY THE SIERRA
MADRE) WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NORTH OF LRD BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
.HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232320
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT LAVACA WL QUICKLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS WL BE MVFR BY
02-03Z AND IFR BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WL REACH LRD BY 08Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WL RISE TO VFR LVLS BY 15-16Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF DRT (INITIATED BY THE SIERRA
MADRE) WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NORTH OF LRD BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
..HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 232320
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT LAVACA WL QUICKLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS WL BE MVFR BY
02-03Z AND IFR BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WL REACH LRD BY 08Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WL RISE TO VFR LVLS BY 15-16Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF DRT (INITIATED BY THE SIERRA
MADRE) WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NORTH OF LRD BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
..HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232048
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
...HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE-ANM/81-88...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 232048
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
...HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE-ANM/81-88...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231746 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NEAR HEBBRONVILLE AT 17Z WILL LIFT ABOVE 3 KFT BY
19Z. CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 21-22Z OVER
THE INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT LOW MVFR CEILINGS TO
FORM BETWEEN 02-04Z THURSDAY OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND
SPREAD TO LAREDO AREA BY 10Z THURSDAY. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR BY 07-08Z FOR COASTAL TAF SITES WITH MVFR VSBY IN FOG
POSSIBLE FOR VCT/ALI. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 15Z FOR
COASTAL AREAS WHILE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AT LRD TO
VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            96  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 231746 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NEAR HEBBRONVILLE AT 17Z WILL LIFT ABOVE 3 KFT BY
19Z. CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 21-22Z OVER
THE INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT LOW MVFR CEILINGS TO
FORM BETWEEN 02-04Z THURSDAY OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND
SPREAD TO LAREDO AREA BY 10Z THURSDAY. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR BY 07-08Z FOR COASTAL TAF SITES WITH MVFR VSBY IN FOG
POSSIBLE FOR VCT/ALI. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 15Z FOR
COASTAL AREAS WHILE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AT LRD TO
VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            96  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231449 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
949 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOG HAS LIFTED BUT STRATUS LINGERING A LITTLE WHILE
LONGER THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. OTHER THAN SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE TREND...NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...AM EXPECTING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AOA 15Z ALL BUT KVCT
WHERE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR NO LATER THAN 17Z. SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS...DIMINISHING FROM
EAST TO WEST DURING THE EVENING. AM EXPECTING CIGS BELOW VFR BY
06Z EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEFORE THE END OF
THE TERMINAL FORECAST. WITH LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM BUT SHOULD SEE THE IFR CIGS. AT KLRD...WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS GOING AFTER 23/15Z AND KEEP THIS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST. THINK CONVECTION NEAR RIO
GRANDE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF KLRD SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            96  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 231449 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
949 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOG HAS LIFTED BUT STRATUS LINGERING A LITTLE WHILE
LONGER THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. OTHER THAN SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE TREND...NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...AM EXPECTING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AOA 15Z ALL BUT KVCT
WHERE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR NO LATER THAN 17Z. SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS...DIMINISHING FROM
EAST TO WEST DURING THE EVENING. AM EXPECTING CIGS BELOW VFR BY
06Z EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEFORE THE END OF
THE TERMINAL FORECAST. WITH LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM BUT SHOULD SEE THE IFR CIGS. AT KLRD...WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS GOING AFTER 23/15Z AND KEEP THIS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST. THINK CONVECTION NEAR RIO
GRANDE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF KLRD SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            96  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231136 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AOA 15Z ALL BUT KVCT
WHERE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR NO LATER THAN 17Z. SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS...DIMINISHING FROM
EAST TO WEST DURING THE EVENING. AM EXPECTING CIGS BELOW VFR BY
06Z EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEFORE THE END OF
THE TERMINAL FORECAST. WITH LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM BUT SHOULD SEE THE IFR CIGS. AT KLRD...WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS GOING AFTER 23/15Z AND KEEP THIS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST. THINK CONVECTION NEAR RIO
GRANDE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF KLRD SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AND SHOULD STAY TIL ABOUT 9 AM. FARTHER SOUTH...THINK
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR DENSE FOG.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH A
WEAK JET STREAK COULD HAVE CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE RIVER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRONG CAP WEAKENS AND ENDS ACTIVITY. JET
MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STILL WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA
THURSDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...LOOKS TO BE WARM AND
HUMID...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. AM GENERALLY GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC FOR
SOUTHERN BAYS AND TONIGHT OVER THE GULFMEX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. FLOW WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
AXIS STAYS INLAND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MINOR H5 VORT MAXES
ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROG TO
STALL ACROSS EWX CWA THURS NIGHT WITH ISO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
/SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT/ WILL OCCUR SAT EVENING ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AS SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT H5 VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AS 85KT H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA. ATTM CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ
DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DROP BACK TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LACK OF FORCING AND DRYING
OF ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH A THERMAL
TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. HAVE GONE WELL
ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSE TO ECX
GUIDANCE. A DRY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR
OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE /PWATS LOWERING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH/. VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY/WED GIVEN STRONG SUN
ANGLE...DRY AIRMASS...AND VERY WARM H9 TEMPS. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR TUES/WED DUE SURROUNDING CWA
CONSISTENCY...BUT MAY NEED TO WARM TEMPS SOME IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            95  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 231136 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AOA 15Z ALL BUT KVCT
WHERE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR NO LATER THAN 17Z. SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS...DIMINISHING FROM
EAST TO WEST DURING THE EVENING. AM EXPECTING CIGS BELOW VFR BY
06Z EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEFORE THE END OF
THE TERMINAL FORECAST. WITH LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM BUT SHOULD SEE THE IFR CIGS. AT KLRD...WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS GOING AFTER 23/15Z AND KEEP THIS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST. THINK CONVECTION NEAR RIO
GRANDE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF KLRD SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AND SHOULD STAY TIL ABOUT 9 AM. FARTHER SOUTH...THINK
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR DENSE FOG.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH A
WEAK JET STREAK COULD HAVE CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE RIVER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRONG CAP WEAKENS AND ENDS ACTIVITY. JET
MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STILL WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA
THURSDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...LOOKS TO BE WARM AND
HUMID...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. AM GENERALLY GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC FOR
SOUTHERN BAYS AND TONIGHT OVER THE GULFMEX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. FLOW WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
AXIS STAYS INLAND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MINOR H5 VORT MAXES
ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROG TO
STALL ACROSS EWX CWA THURS NIGHT WITH ISO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
/SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT/ WILL OCCUR SAT EVENING ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AS SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT H5 VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AS 85KT H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA. ATTM CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ
DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DROP BACK TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LACK OF FORCING AND DRYING
OF ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH A THERMAL
TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. HAVE GONE WELL
ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSE TO ECX
GUIDANCE. A DRY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR
OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE /PWATS LOWERING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH/. VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY/WED GIVEN STRONG SUN
ANGLE...DRY AIRMASS...AND VERY WARM H9 TEMPS. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR TUES/WED DUE SURROUNDING CWA
CONSISTENCY...BUT MAY NEED TO WARM TEMPS SOME IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            95  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231011 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
511 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AND SHOULD STAY TIL ABOUT 9 AM. FARTHER SOUTH...THINK
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR DENSE FOG.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH A
WEAK JET STREAK COULD HAVE CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE RIVER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRONG CAP WEAKENS AND ENDS ACTIVITY. JET
MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STILL WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA
THURSDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...LOOKS TO BE WARM AND
HUMID...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. AM GENERALLY GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC FOR
SOUTHERN BAYS AND TONIGHT OVER THE GULFMEX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. FLOW WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
AXIS STAYS INLAND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MINOR H5 VORT MAXES
ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROG TO
STALL ACROSS EWX CWA THURS NIGHT WITH ISO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
/SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT/ WILL OCCUR SAT EVENING ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AS SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT H5 VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AS 85KT H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA. ATTM CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ
DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DROP BACK TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LACK OF FORCING AND DRYING
OF ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH A THERMAL
TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. HAVE GONE WELL
ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSE TO ECX
GUIDANCE. A DRY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR
OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE /PWATS LOWERING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH/. VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY/WED GIVEN STRONG SUN
ANGLE...DRY AIRMASS...AND VERY WARM H9 TEMPS. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR TUES/WED DUE SURROUNDING CWA
CONSISTENCY...BUT MAY NEED TO WARM TEMPS SOME IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            95  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 231011 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
511 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AND SHOULD STAY TIL ABOUT 9 AM. FARTHER SOUTH...THINK
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR DENSE FOG.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH A
WEAK JET STREAK COULD HAVE CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE RIVER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRONG CAP WEAKENS AND ENDS ACTIVITY. JET
MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STILL WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA
THURSDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...LOOKS TO BE WARM AND
HUMID...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. AM GENERALLY GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC FOR
SOUTHERN BAYS AND TONIGHT OVER THE GULFMEX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. FLOW WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
AXIS STAYS INLAND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MINOR H5 VORT MAXES
ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROG TO
STALL ACROSS EWX CWA THURS NIGHT WITH ISO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
/SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT/ WILL OCCUR SAT EVENING ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AS SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT H5 VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AS 85KT H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA. ATTM CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ
DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DROP BACK TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LACK OF FORCING AND DRYING
OF ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH A THERMAL
TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. HAVE GONE WELL
ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSE TO ECX
GUIDANCE. A DRY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR
OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE /PWATS LOWERING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH/. VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY/WED GIVEN STRONG SUN
ANGLE...DRY AIRMASS...AND VERY WARM H9 TEMPS. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR TUES/WED DUE SURROUNDING CWA
CONSISTENCY...BUT MAY NEED TO WARM TEMPS SOME IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            95  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 230838
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH A
WEAK JET STREAK COULD HAVE CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE RIVER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRONG CAP WEAKENS AND ENDS ACTIVITY. JET
MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STILL WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA
THURSDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...LOOKS TO BE WARM AND
HUMID...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. AM GENERALLY GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC FOR
SOUTHERN BAYS AND TONIGHT OVER THE GULFMEX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. FLOW WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
AXIS STAYS INLAND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MINOR H5 VORT MAXES
ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROG TO
STALL ACROSS EWX CWA THURS NIGHT WITH ISO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
/SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT/ WILL OCCUR SAT EVENING ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AS SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT H5 VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AS 85KT H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA. ATTM CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ
DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DROP BACK TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LACK OF FORCING AND DRYING
OF ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH A THERMAL
TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. HAVE GONE WELL
ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSE TO ECX
GUIDANCE. A DRY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR
OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE /PWATS LOWERING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH/. VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY/WED GIVEN STRONG SUN
ANGLE...DRY AIRMASS...AND VERY WARM H9 TEMPS. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR TUES/WED DUE SURROUNDING CWA
CONSISTENCY...BUT MAY NEED TO WARM TEMPS SOME IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            95  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 230517 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1217 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE WITH
MVFR CIGS AT KLRD AND KCRP...AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KALI AND KVCT (FOG AND CIGS). LOOKING AT THE TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS...SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS END AOA 15Z...WITH SOME CIRRUS
COMING IN DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST (OBVIOUSLY). WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN TAF AND GENERALLY SSE...
CONTINUING TIL ABOUT 24/02Z OR SO. CONVERSELY...KLRD WILL NOT HAVE
GUSTY WINDS TIL LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE TIME. COULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEFORE
END OF TERMINALS EASTERN TAFS...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING THIS. WILL LOOK AT IT AGAIN FOR 12Z
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY ALONG THE WEAKENING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. WEAKENING IN
THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE
EAST BEHIND THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
WITH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE IN PLACE...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A BIT OF STRATUS AS WELL TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KLRD AND KCRP FROM THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS...AND IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KALI AND KVCT DURING THE SAME
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  85  69  85  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          66  85  68  85  68  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  97  72  96  72  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             67  90  69  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  78  69  77  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  93  67  95  70  /  20  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        69  89  69  88  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  80  69  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 230517 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1217 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE WITH
MVFR CIGS AT KLRD AND KCRP...AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KALI AND KVCT (FOG AND CIGS). LOOKING AT THE TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS...SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS END AOA 15Z...WITH SOME CIRRUS
COMING IN DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST (OBVIOUSLY). WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN TAF AND GENERALLY SSE...
CONTINUING TIL ABOUT 24/02Z OR SO. CONVERSELY...KLRD WILL NOT HAVE
GUSTY WINDS TIL LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE TIME. COULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEFORE
END OF TERMINALS EASTERN TAFS...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING THIS. WILL LOOK AT IT AGAIN FOR 12Z
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY ALONG THE WEAKENING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. WEAKENING IN
THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE
EAST BEHIND THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
WITH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE IN PLACE...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A BIT OF STRATUS AS WELL TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KLRD AND KCRP FROM THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS...AND IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KALI AND KVCT DURING THE SAME
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  85  69  85  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          66  85  68  85  68  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  97  72  96  72  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             67  90  69  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  78  69  77  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  93  67  95  70  /  20  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        69  89  69  88  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  80  69  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 230244 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
944 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY ALONG THE WEAKENING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. WEAKENING IN
THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE
EAST BEHIND THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
WITH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE IN PLACE...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A BIT OF STRATUS AS WELL TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KLRD AND KCRP FROM THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS...AND IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KALI AND KVCT DURING THE SAME
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 230244 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
944 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY ALONG THE WEAKENING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. WEAKENING IN
THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE
EAST BEHIND THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
WITH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE IN PLACE...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A BIT OF STRATUS AS WELL TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KLRD AND KCRP FROM THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS...AND IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KALI AND KVCT DURING THE SAME
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 222354
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
654 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KLRD AND KCRP FROM THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS...AND IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KALI AND KVCT DURING THE SAME
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 222354
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
654 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KLRD AND KCRP FROM THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS...AND IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KALI AND KVCT DURING THE SAME
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 222052
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 222052
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 221823 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
123 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED ON THE TAFS...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT WHICH POINT MVFR LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IMPACTING ALL SITES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER ALI/VCT. LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE SHIFTING EAST
DUE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECTING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 14Z. BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG A PORT
LAVACA TO ALICE TO LAREDO LINE LATE THIS MORNING. ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH STRONG HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...CAP OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN. THERE
WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
COULD BE BROKEN BY 19-20Z OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE VARIETY BUT THE INSTABILITY...CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             91  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AN/88...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 221823 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
123 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED ON THE TAFS...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT WHICH POINT MVFR LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IMPACTING ALL SITES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER ALI/VCT. LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE SHIFTING EAST
DUE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECTING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 14Z. BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG A PORT
LAVACA TO ALICE TO LAREDO LINE LATE THIS MORNING. ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH STRONG HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...CAP OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN. THERE
WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
COULD BE BROKEN BY 19-20Z OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE VARIETY BUT THE INSTABILITY...CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             91  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AN/88...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221504 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1004 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 14Z. BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG A PORT
LAVACA TO ALICE TO LAREDO LINE LATE THIS MORNING. ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH STRONG HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...CAP OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN. THERE
WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
COULD BE BROKEN BY 19-20Z OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE VARIETY BUT THE INSTABILITY...CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION
POSSIBLITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             91  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221504 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1004 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 14Z. BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG A PORT
LAVACA TO ALICE TO LAREDO LINE LATE THIS MORNING. ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH STRONG HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...CAP OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN. THERE
WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
COULD BE BROKEN BY 19-20Z OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE VARIETY BUT THE INSTABILITY...CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION
POSSIBLITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             91  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 221132 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             92  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 220921
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
421 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CI
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG STILL A POSSIBILITY BY SUNRISE. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
DRIFT INTO OUR CWA TODAY BEFORE LOSING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG /IF IT DEVELOPS/ WILL MIX OUT BY MID/LATE
MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY WILL BE LOW...BUT NOT NIL. A WEAK MCV WAS
NOTED ACROSS EWX CWA EARLIER TONIGHT AND WITH REMNANT MCV MOVING
SOUTH...ALONG WITH INTERACTION FROM WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
POSSIBLE SEABREEZE ACTIVATION /AND VERY WEAK H5 VORT MAX SLIDING
S/...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY
WARM TO HOT WITH MANY INLAND LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 90 DEGREES.
DRYING OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN PROG TO OCCUR TONIGHT AND WED
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
MAX/MIN TEMPS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN BY WED AFTERNOON
AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC CONTINUE TO PROG AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS
TX/SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER FORCING WL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA... ANTICIPATE
THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS SYSTEM AND PWAT VALUES ABOVE
NORMAL WL RESULT IN ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND HIGH CIN VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE
CONVECTION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO PROG ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM TO ENTER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EWD OVER THE CNTRL CONUS SUNDAY/MONDAY. DESPITE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...BOTH SOLNS SUGGEST ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS TO AFFECT THE
CWA/MSA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT CIN VALUES DRG THIS PERIOD. YET...THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MSTR MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROGS DRY
ADABATIC FLOW ACRS THE SIERRA MADRE INTO THE WRN CWA DRG THE AFTN
HOURS SUNDAY/MONDAY RESULTING IN HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             92  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220921
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
421 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CI
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG STILL A POSSIBILITY BY SUNRISE. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
DRIFT INTO OUR CWA TODAY BEFORE LOSING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG /IF IT DEVELOPS/ WILL MIX OUT BY MID/LATE
MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY WILL BE LOW...BUT NOT NIL. A WEAK MCV WAS
NOTED ACROSS EWX CWA EARLIER TONIGHT AND WITH REMNANT MCV MOVING
SOUTH...ALONG WITH INTERACTION FROM WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
POSSIBLE SEABREEZE ACTIVATION /AND VERY WEAK H5 VORT MAX SLIDING
S/...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY
WARM TO HOT WITH MANY INLAND LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 90 DEGREES.
DRYING OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN PROG TO OCCUR TONIGHT AND WED
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
MAX/MIN TEMPS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN BY WED AFTERNOON
AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC CONTINUE TO PROG AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS
TX/SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER FORCING WL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA... ANTICIPATE
THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS SYSTEM AND PWAT VALUES ABOVE
NORMAL WL RESULT IN ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND HIGH CIN VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE
CONVECTION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO PROG ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM TO ENTER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EWD OVER THE CNTRL CONUS SUNDAY/MONDAY. DESPITE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...BOTH SOLNS SUGGEST ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS TO AFFECT THE
CWA/MSA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT CIN VALUES DRG THIS PERIOD. YET...THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MSTR MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROGS DRY
ADABATIC FLOW ACRS THE SIERRA MADRE INTO THE WRN CWA DRG THE AFTN
HOURS SUNDAY/MONDAY RESULTING IN HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             92  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM





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