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000
FXUS64 KCRP 012015
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
315 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/GFS AND NAM STREAMLINES DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AT
THE COAST WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WEST OF THE
AXIS. EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY YET
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST (BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.)
GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC MAINTAIN HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER THE MSA. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS/MSTR SUGGEST ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION
OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. YET THE DETERMINISTIC NWP
MODELS PREDICT WEAK 700-300MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...WL MAINTAIN LOW POPS OVER THE
ERN CWA/SLIGHTLY GREATER OVER THE MSA DRG THE PERIOD...CONVECTION
MAINLY OVER THE MSA TNGT/EARLY WEDNESDAY (NIL DETERMINISTIC CIN
OVER THE MSA) WITH CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA OCCURRING MAINLY
DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS PROG UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS TO BE EAST OF THE CWA DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON THU.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS BEING OVER THE GULF
WATERS. HOWEVER...PWATS ARE PROGD TO BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH COMBINED WITH MOD INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT CONVECTION. THE BETTER CHC OF
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES THU
MORNING THEN SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE THU AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVG
W ACROSS THE FAR S PART OF TX AND NE MEX ON FRI WITH THE UPPER HIGH
SLIDING E ACROSS NRN TX PER THE GFS. THE ECMWF HAS THE CTR OF THE
HIGH MEANDERING ACROSS N AND W TX. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH UPPER
SUPPORT...BUT BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AM
EXPECTING A REPEAT OF SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE E ON FRI AND AGAIN
SAT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROG THE UPPER HIGH TO BE MORE IN
CONTROL BY SUNDAY MAKING THE POP FCST A BIT MORE TRICKY. FOR NOW
KEPT A CHC ACROSS THE E DUE TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST MON/TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  90  76  91  77  /  20  20  20  30  20
VICTORIA          73  89  73  90  74  /  20  30  20  40  20
LAREDO            76  96  76  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  93  73  94  74  /  20  30  10  40  10
ROCKPORT          79  87  77  89  78  /  20  20  20  30  30
COTULLA           75  95  75  97  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  93  75  93  76  /  20  30  20  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  88  79  /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 012015
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
315 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/GFS AND NAM STREAMLINES DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AT
THE COAST WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WEST OF THE
AXIS. EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY YET
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST (BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.)
GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC MAINTAIN HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER THE MSA. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS/MSTR SUGGEST ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION
OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. YET THE DETERMINISTIC NWP
MODELS PREDICT WEAK 700-300MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...WL MAINTAIN LOW POPS OVER THE
ERN CWA/SLIGHTLY GREATER OVER THE MSA DRG THE PERIOD...CONVECTION
MAINLY OVER THE MSA TNGT/EARLY WEDNESDAY (NIL DETERMINISTIC CIN
OVER THE MSA) WITH CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA OCCURRING MAINLY
DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS PROG UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS TO BE EAST OF THE CWA DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON THU.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS BEING OVER THE GULF
WATERS. HOWEVER...PWATS ARE PROGD TO BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH COMBINED WITH MOD INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT CONVECTION. THE BETTER CHC OF
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES THU
MORNING THEN SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE THU AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVG
W ACROSS THE FAR S PART OF TX AND NE MEX ON FRI WITH THE UPPER HIGH
SLIDING E ACROSS NRN TX PER THE GFS. THE ECMWF HAS THE CTR OF THE
HIGH MEANDERING ACROSS N AND W TX. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH UPPER
SUPPORT...BUT BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AM
EXPECTING A REPEAT OF SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE E ON FRI AND AGAIN
SAT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROG THE UPPER HIGH TO BE MORE IN
CONTROL BY SUNDAY MAKING THE POP FCST A BIT MORE TRICKY. FOR NOW
KEPT A CHC ACROSS THE E DUE TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST MON/TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  90  76  91  77  /  20  20  20  30  20
VICTORIA          73  89  73  90  74  /  20  30  20  40  20
LAREDO            76  96  76  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  93  73  94  74  /  20  30  10  40  10
ROCKPORT          79  87  77  89  78  /  20  20  20  30  30
COTULLA           75  95  75  97  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  93  75  93  76  /  20  30  20  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  88  79  /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 011749
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES NEAR ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST
OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281...AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/
VISIBILITIES DRG THE 08-13Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD. WEAK/MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. LGT/VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. FOR THE PUBLIC
FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. STILL THINK SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
REDEVELOP AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT MAY
TAKE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE /AND BASED OFF RADAR TRENDS/.

AVIATION...XPCTNG A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID
MRNG AT MOST S TX TERMINALS...AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST HAS STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. AFTER SEVERAL HRS OF DIURNAL
WARMING...AIRMASS SHOULD THEN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
ALLOW FOR ISO TO SCT CONVECTION VCNTY KCRP/KVCT/KALI BY LATE MRNG
THRU THE AFTN. MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING AWAY FROM CONVECTION DRNG THE AFTN. KLRD XPCTD TO
REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH ISO CONVECTION MAY DVLP IN THE
AREA BY LATE AFTN. SOME DENSE CI EARLY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
STRATUS DVLPNG LATE. E/SE SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...INCREASING IN
THE AFTN...AND STRONGER IN/NEAR CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ALL 00Z GUIDANCE EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS FAILED TO PROPERLY HANDLE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SUITES ARE PLAYING /CATCH
UP/ AS OF WRITING. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE AND COASTAL SPEED
CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG/ HAS LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE CWA WITH BASE OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS BRO MARINE AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE EXPLOSION IS THE
GREATEST. LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN TODAY/S FORECAST AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER END LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH ROUGHLY MID MORNING OWING TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE EFFECTS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION MAY IMPACT
CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SOME STABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE
MAY OCCUR AND DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TX COAST MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM BEING REALIZED. AFTER THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION /ASSUMING IT PANS OUT/...FOCUS WILL THEN
TURN TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS ATMOSPHERE INLAND BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. INLAND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN MONDAY GIVEN LOWER INLAND INSTABILITY VALUES AND AN INCREASE
IN SUBSIDENCE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTED ENHANCED LLVL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEABREEZE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE VALUES.
SOUTHERN END OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING ON TO SHORE. AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR ALOFT
ON WED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES FURTHER. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY AND
HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA)
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.7" TO 1.8") TO GENERATE ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
FLOW AND 2-3 FT SEAS.

MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A WATERSPOUT OR TWO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS GREAT AS EARLY THIS MORNING. SE WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
PREVAILING AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  92  76  91  77  /  20  30  30  30  20
VICTORIA          73  92  73  90  74  /  30  30  20  30  20
LAREDO            76  99  76  98  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             73  95  73  94  74  /  10  20  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          77  90  77  89  78  /  40  30  40  40  30
COTULLA           74  98  75  97  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  95  75  93  76  /  20  20  20  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  90  78  88  79  /  40  30  40  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011749
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES NEAR ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST
OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281...AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/
VISIBILITIES DRG THE 08-13Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD. WEAK/MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. LGT/VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. FOR THE PUBLIC
FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. STILL THINK SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
REDEVELOP AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT MAY
TAKE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE /AND BASED OFF RADAR TRENDS/.

AVIATION...XPCTNG A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID
MRNG AT MOST S TX TERMINALS...AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST HAS STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. AFTER SEVERAL HRS OF DIURNAL
WARMING...AIRMASS SHOULD THEN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
ALLOW FOR ISO TO SCT CONVECTION VCNTY KCRP/KVCT/KALI BY LATE MRNG
THRU THE AFTN. MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING AWAY FROM CONVECTION DRNG THE AFTN. KLRD XPCTD TO
REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH ISO CONVECTION MAY DVLP IN THE
AREA BY LATE AFTN. SOME DENSE CI EARLY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
STRATUS DVLPNG LATE. E/SE SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...INCREASING IN
THE AFTN...AND STRONGER IN/NEAR CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ALL 00Z GUIDANCE EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS FAILED TO PROPERLY HANDLE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SUITES ARE PLAYING /CATCH
UP/ AS OF WRITING. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE AND COASTAL SPEED
CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG/ HAS LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE CWA WITH BASE OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS BRO MARINE AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE EXPLOSION IS THE
GREATEST. LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN TODAY/S FORECAST AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER END LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH ROUGHLY MID MORNING OWING TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE EFFECTS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION MAY IMPACT
CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SOME STABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE
MAY OCCUR AND DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TX COAST MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM BEING REALIZED. AFTER THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION /ASSUMING IT PANS OUT/...FOCUS WILL THEN
TURN TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS ATMOSPHERE INLAND BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. INLAND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN MONDAY GIVEN LOWER INLAND INSTABILITY VALUES AND AN INCREASE
IN SUBSIDENCE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTED ENHANCED LLVL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEABREEZE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE VALUES.
SOUTHERN END OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING ON TO SHORE. AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR ALOFT
ON WED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES FURTHER. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY AND
HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA)
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.7" TO 1.8") TO GENERATE ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
FLOW AND 2-3 FT SEAS.

MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A WATERSPOUT OR TWO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS GREAT AS EARLY THIS MORNING. SE WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
PREVAILING AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  92  76  91  77  /  20  30  30  30  20
VICTORIA          73  92  73  90  74  /  30  30  20  30  20
LAREDO            76  99  76  98  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             73  95  73  94  74  /  10  20  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          77  90  77  89  78  /  40  30  40  40  30
COTULLA           74  98  75  97  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  95  75  93  76  /  20  20  20  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  90  78  88  79  /  40  30  40  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 011749
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES NEAR ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST
OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281...AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/
VISIBILITIES DRG THE 08-13Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD. WEAK/MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. LGT/VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. FOR THE PUBLIC
FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. STILL THINK SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
REDEVELOP AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT MAY
TAKE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE /AND BASED OFF RADAR TRENDS/.

AVIATION...XPCTNG A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID
MRNG AT MOST S TX TERMINALS...AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST HAS STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. AFTER SEVERAL HRS OF DIURNAL
WARMING...AIRMASS SHOULD THEN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
ALLOW FOR ISO TO SCT CONVECTION VCNTY KCRP/KVCT/KALI BY LATE MRNG
THRU THE AFTN. MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING AWAY FROM CONVECTION DRNG THE AFTN. KLRD XPCTD TO
REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH ISO CONVECTION MAY DVLP IN THE
AREA BY LATE AFTN. SOME DENSE CI EARLY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
STRATUS DVLPNG LATE. E/SE SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...INCREASING IN
THE AFTN...AND STRONGER IN/NEAR CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ALL 00Z GUIDANCE EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS FAILED TO PROPERLY HANDLE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SUITES ARE PLAYING /CATCH
UP/ AS OF WRITING. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE AND COASTAL SPEED
CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG/ HAS LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE CWA WITH BASE OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS BRO MARINE AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE EXPLOSION IS THE
GREATEST. LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN TODAY/S FORECAST AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER END LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH ROUGHLY MID MORNING OWING TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE EFFECTS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION MAY IMPACT
CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SOME STABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE
MAY OCCUR AND DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TX COAST MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM BEING REALIZED. AFTER THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION /ASSUMING IT PANS OUT/...FOCUS WILL THEN
TURN TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS ATMOSPHERE INLAND BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. INLAND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN MONDAY GIVEN LOWER INLAND INSTABILITY VALUES AND AN INCREASE
IN SUBSIDENCE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTED ENHANCED LLVL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEABREEZE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE VALUES.
SOUTHERN END OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING ON TO SHORE. AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR ALOFT
ON WED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES FURTHER. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY AND
HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA)
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.7" TO 1.8") TO GENERATE ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
FLOW AND 2-3 FT SEAS.

MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A WATERSPOUT OR TWO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS GREAT AS EARLY THIS MORNING. SE WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
PREVAILING AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  92  76  91  77  /  20  30  30  30  20
VICTORIA          73  92  73  90  74  /  30  30  20  30  20
LAREDO            76  99  76  98  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             73  95  73  94  74  /  10  20  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          77  90  77  89  78  /  40  30  40  40  30
COTULLA           74  98  75  97  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  95  75  93  76  /  20  20  20  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  90  78  88  79  /  40  30  40  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 011118 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
618 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. FOR THE PUBLIC
FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. STILL THINK SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
REDEVELOP AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT MAY
TAKE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE /AND BASED OFF RADAR TRENDS/.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCTNG A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID
MRNG AT MOST S TX TERMINALS...AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST HAS STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. AFTER SEVERAL HRS OF DIURNAL
WARMING...AIRMASS SHOULD THEN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
ALLOW FOR ISO TO SCT CONVECTION VCNTY KCRP/KVCT/KALI BY LATE MRNG
THRU THE AFTN. MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING AWAY FROM CONVECTION DRNG THE AFTN. KLRD XPCTD TO
REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH ISO CONVECTION MAY DVLP IN THE
AREA BY LATE AFTN. SOME DENSE CI EARLY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
STRATUS DVLPNG LATE. E/SE SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...INCREASING IN
THE AFTN...AND STRONGER IN/NEAR CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ALL 00Z GUIDANCE EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS FAILED TO PROPERLY HANDLE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SUITES ARE PLAYING /CATCH
UP/ AS OF WRITING. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE AND COASTAL SPEED
CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG/ HAS LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE CWA WITH BASE OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS BRO MARINE AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE EXPLOSION IS THE
GREATEST. LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN TODAY/S FORECAST AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER END LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH ROUGHLY MID MORNING OWING TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE EFFECTS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION MAY IMPACT
CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SOME STABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE
MAY OCCUR AND DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TX COAST MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM BEING REALIZED. AFTER THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION /ASSUMING IT PANS OUT/...FOCUS WILL THEN
TURN TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS ATMOSPHERE INLAND BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. INLAND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN MONDAY GIVEN LOWER INLAND INSTABILITY VALUES AND AN INCREASE
IN SUBSIDENCE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTED ENHANCED LLVL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEABREEZE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE VALUES.
SOUTHERN END OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING ON TO SHORE. AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR ALOFT
ON WED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES FURTHER. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY AND
HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA)
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.7" TO 1.8") TO GENERATE ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
FLOW AND 2-3 FT SEAS.

MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A WATERSPOUT OR TWO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS GREAT AS EARLY THIS MORNING. SE WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
PREVAILING AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  75  92  76  91  /  50  20  30  30  30
VICTORIA          90  73  92  73  90  /  60  30  30  20  30
LAREDO            98  76  99  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             93  73  95  73  94  /  50  10  20  20  30
ROCKPORT          90  77  90  77  89  /  50  40  30  40  40
COTULLA           98  74  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  74  95  75  93  /  50  20  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  90  78  88  /  50  40  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 011118 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
618 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. FOR THE PUBLIC
FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. STILL THINK SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
REDEVELOP AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT MAY
TAKE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE /AND BASED OFF RADAR TRENDS/.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCTNG A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID
MRNG AT MOST S TX TERMINALS...AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST HAS STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. AFTER SEVERAL HRS OF DIURNAL
WARMING...AIRMASS SHOULD THEN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
ALLOW FOR ISO TO SCT CONVECTION VCNTY KCRP/KVCT/KALI BY LATE MRNG
THRU THE AFTN. MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING AWAY FROM CONVECTION DRNG THE AFTN. KLRD XPCTD TO
REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH ISO CONVECTION MAY DVLP IN THE
AREA BY LATE AFTN. SOME DENSE CI EARLY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
STRATUS DVLPNG LATE. E/SE SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...INCREASING IN
THE AFTN...AND STRONGER IN/NEAR CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ALL 00Z GUIDANCE EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS FAILED TO PROPERLY HANDLE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SUITES ARE PLAYING /CATCH
UP/ AS OF WRITING. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE AND COASTAL SPEED
CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG/ HAS LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE CWA WITH BASE OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS BRO MARINE AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE EXPLOSION IS THE
GREATEST. LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN TODAY/S FORECAST AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER END LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH ROUGHLY MID MORNING OWING TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE EFFECTS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION MAY IMPACT
CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SOME STABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE
MAY OCCUR AND DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TX COAST MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM BEING REALIZED. AFTER THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION /ASSUMING IT PANS OUT/...FOCUS WILL THEN
TURN TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS ATMOSPHERE INLAND BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. INLAND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN MONDAY GIVEN LOWER INLAND INSTABILITY VALUES AND AN INCREASE
IN SUBSIDENCE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTED ENHANCED LLVL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEABREEZE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE VALUES.
SOUTHERN END OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING ON TO SHORE. AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR ALOFT
ON WED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES FURTHER. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY AND
HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA)
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.7" TO 1.8") TO GENERATE ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
FLOW AND 2-3 FT SEAS.

MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A WATERSPOUT OR TWO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS GREAT AS EARLY THIS MORNING. SE WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
PREVAILING AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  75  92  76  91  /  50  20  30  30  30
VICTORIA          90  73  92  73  90  /  60  30  30  20  30
LAREDO            98  76  99  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             93  73  95  73  94  /  50  10  20  20  30
ROCKPORT          90  77  90  77  89  /  50  40  30  40  40
COTULLA           98  74  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  74  95  75  93  /  50  20  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  90  78  88  /  50  40  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011118 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
618 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. FOR THE PUBLIC
FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. STILL THINK SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
REDEVELOP AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT MAY
TAKE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE /AND BASED OFF RADAR TRENDS/.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCTNG A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID
MRNG AT MOST S TX TERMINALS...AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST HAS STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. AFTER SEVERAL HRS OF DIURNAL
WARMING...AIRMASS SHOULD THEN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
ALLOW FOR ISO TO SCT CONVECTION VCNTY KCRP/KVCT/KALI BY LATE MRNG
THRU THE AFTN. MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING AWAY FROM CONVECTION DRNG THE AFTN. KLRD XPCTD TO
REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH ISO CONVECTION MAY DVLP IN THE
AREA BY LATE AFTN. SOME DENSE CI EARLY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
STRATUS DVLPNG LATE. E/SE SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...INCREASING IN
THE AFTN...AND STRONGER IN/NEAR CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ALL 00Z GUIDANCE EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS FAILED TO PROPERLY HANDLE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SUITES ARE PLAYING /CATCH
UP/ AS OF WRITING. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE AND COASTAL SPEED
CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG/ HAS LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE CWA WITH BASE OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS BRO MARINE AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE EXPLOSION IS THE
GREATEST. LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN TODAY/S FORECAST AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER END LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH ROUGHLY MID MORNING OWING TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE EFFECTS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION MAY IMPACT
CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SOME STABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE
MAY OCCUR AND DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TX COAST MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM BEING REALIZED. AFTER THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION /ASSUMING IT PANS OUT/...FOCUS WILL THEN
TURN TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS ATMOSPHERE INLAND BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. INLAND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN MONDAY GIVEN LOWER INLAND INSTABILITY VALUES AND AN INCREASE
IN SUBSIDENCE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTED ENHANCED LLVL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEABREEZE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE VALUES.
SOUTHERN END OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING ON TO SHORE. AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR ALOFT
ON WED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES FURTHER. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY AND
HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA)
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.7" TO 1.8") TO GENERATE ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
FLOW AND 2-3 FT SEAS.

MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A WATERSPOUT OR TWO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS GREAT AS EARLY THIS MORNING. SE WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
PREVAILING AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  75  92  76  91  /  50  20  30  30  30
VICTORIA          90  73  92  73  90  /  60  30  30  20  30
LAREDO            98  76  99  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             93  73  95  73  94  /  50  10  20  20  30
ROCKPORT          90  77  90  77  89  /  50  40  30  40  40
COTULLA           98  74  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  74  95  75  93  /  50  20  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  90  78  88  /  50  40  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011118 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
618 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. FOR THE PUBLIC
FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. STILL THINK SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
REDEVELOP AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT MAY
TAKE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE /AND BASED OFF RADAR TRENDS/.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCTNG A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID
MRNG AT MOST S TX TERMINALS...AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST HAS STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. AFTER SEVERAL HRS OF DIURNAL
WARMING...AIRMASS SHOULD THEN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
ALLOW FOR ISO TO SCT CONVECTION VCNTY KCRP/KVCT/KALI BY LATE MRNG
THRU THE AFTN. MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING AWAY FROM CONVECTION DRNG THE AFTN. KLRD XPCTD TO
REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH ISO CONVECTION MAY DVLP IN THE
AREA BY LATE AFTN. SOME DENSE CI EARLY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
STRATUS DVLPNG LATE. E/SE SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...INCREASING IN
THE AFTN...AND STRONGER IN/NEAR CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ALL 00Z GUIDANCE EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS FAILED TO PROPERLY HANDLE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SUITES ARE PLAYING /CATCH
UP/ AS OF WRITING. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE AND COASTAL SPEED
CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG/ HAS LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE CWA WITH BASE OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS BRO MARINE AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE EXPLOSION IS THE
GREATEST. LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN TODAY/S FORECAST AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER END LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH ROUGHLY MID MORNING OWING TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE EFFECTS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION MAY IMPACT
CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SOME STABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE
MAY OCCUR AND DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TX COAST MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM BEING REALIZED. AFTER THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION /ASSUMING IT PANS OUT/...FOCUS WILL THEN
TURN TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS ATMOSPHERE INLAND BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. INLAND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN MONDAY GIVEN LOWER INLAND INSTABILITY VALUES AND AN INCREASE
IN SUBSIDENCE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTED ENHANCED LLVL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEABREEZE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE VALUES.
SOUTHERN END OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING ON TO SHORE. AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR ALOFT
ON WED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES FURTHER. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY AND
HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA)
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.7" TO 1.8") TO GENERATE ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
FLOW AND 2-3 FT SEAS.

MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A WATERSPOUT OR TWO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS GREAT AS EARLY THIS MORNING. SE WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
PREVAILING AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  75  92  76  91  /  50  20  30  30  30
VICTORIA          90  73  92  73  90  /  60  30  30  20  30
LAREDO            98  76  99  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             93  73  95  73  94  /  50  10  20  20  30
ROCKPORT          90  77  90  77  89  /  50  40  30  40  40
COTULLA           98  74  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  74  95  75  93  /  50  20  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  90  78  88  /  50  40  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010851
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
351 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ALL 00Z GUIDANCE EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS FAILED TO PROPERLY HANDLE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SUITES ARE PLAYING /CATCH
UP/ AS OF WRITING. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE AND COASTAL SPEED
CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG/ HAS LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE CWA WITH BASE OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS BRO MARINE AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE EXPLOSION IS THE
GREATEST. LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN TODAY/S FORECAST AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER END LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH ROUGHLY MID MORNING OWING TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE EFFECTS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION MAY IMPACT
CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SOME STABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE
MAY OCCUR AND DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TX COAST MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM BEING REALIZED. AFTER THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION /ASSUMING IT PANS OUT/...FOCUS WILL THEN
TURN TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS ATMOSPHERE INLAND BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. INLAND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN MONDAY GIVEN LOWER INLAND INSTABILITY VALUES AND AN INCREASE
IN SUBSIDENCE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTED ENHANCED LLVL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEABREEZE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE VALUES.
SOUTHERN END OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING ON TO SHORE. AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR ALOFT
ON WED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES FURTHER. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY AND
HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA)
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.7" TO 1.8") TO GENERATE ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
FLOW AND 2-3 FT SEAS.
&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A WATERSPOUT OR TWO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS GREAT AS EARLY THIS MORNING. SE WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
PREVAILING AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  75  92  76  91  /  70  20  30  30  30
VICTORIA          90  73  92  73  90  /  60  30  30  20  30
LAREDO            98  76  99  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             93  73  95  73  94  /  50  10  20  20  30
ROCKPORT          90  77  90  77  89  /  70  40  30  40  40
COTULLA           98  74  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  74  95  75  93  /  60  20  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  90  78  88  /  70  40  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010851
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
351 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ALL 00Z GUIDANCE EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS FAILED TO PROPERLY HANDLE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SUITES ARE PLAYING /CATCH
UP/ AS OF WRITING. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE AND COASTAL SPEED
CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG/ HAS LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE CWA WITH BASE OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS BRO MARINE AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE EXPLOSION IS THE
GREATEST. LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN TODAY/S FORECAST AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER END LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH ROUGHLY MID MORNING OWING TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE EFFECTS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION MAY IMPACT
CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SOME STABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE
MAY OCCUR AND DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TX COAST MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM BEING REALIZED. AFTER THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION /ASSUMING IT PANS OUT/...FOCUS WILL THEN
TURN TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS ATMOSPHERE INLAND BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. INLAND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN MONDAY GIVEN LOWER INLAND INSTABILITY VALUES AND AN INCREASE
IN SUBSIDENCE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTED ENHANCED LLVL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEABREEZE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE VALUES.
SOUTHERN END OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING ON TO SHORE. AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR ALOFT
ON WED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES FURTHER. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY AND
HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA)
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.7" TO 1.8") TO GENERATE ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
FLOW AND 2-3 FT SEAS.
&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A WATERSPOUT OR TWO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS GREAT AS EARLY THIS MORNING. SE WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
PREVAILING AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  75  92  76  91  /  70  20  30  30  30
VICTORIA          90  73  92  73  90  /  60  30  30  20  30
LAREDO            98  76  99  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             93  73  95  73  94  /  50  10  20  20  30
ROCKPORT          90  77  90  77  89  /  70  40  30  40  40
COTULLA           98  74  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  74  95  75  93  /  60  20  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  90  78  88  /  70  40  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010536 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1236 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...COMPLEX TAF FCSTS WITH CONVECTION BEING PRIMARY
AVIATION WX CONCERN. XPCTNG SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE MID TX COAST
TO TRY TO DVLP INLAND OVERNIGHT AND APPROACH KCRP AT TIMES...AND
POSSIBLY KVCT BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE IN CONVECTION
XPCTD TO INCREASE THRU THE DAYLIGHT MRNG HOURS WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY IMPACTING KCRP/KVCT/KALI AT TIMES. CONVECTION TO THEN SHIFT
WWRD THRU THE AFTN WITH THREAT DIMINISHING AT KCRP. ISO CONVECTION
MAY APPROACH KLRD BY LATE AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUCH OCCURRENCE
NOT OVERLY HIGH ATTM. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER
SHRA/TSRA. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPINGS FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
/AS NEEDED/ AND WILL INCLUDE ADDITIONAL TEMPO GROUPINGS FOR LATER
TUES IN UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...MAINLY A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR SET TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY.
LIGHT SERLY SFC WINDS REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  76  90  76  /  30  50  20  40  20
VICTORIA          74  88  73  92  73  /  30  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            73  96  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             74  91  74  93  74  /  20  40  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  86  78  88  78  /  40  50  20  40  30
COTULLA           72  95  75  95  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  90  75  93  75  /  30  40  20  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  79  89  78  /  40  50  20  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010150
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
850 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA AS THE
AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WL ADJUST
POPS ACCORDINGLY THROUGH 06Z.  THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION IN
ASSCTN WITH THE UPR LOW WL BEGIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
08Z. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WHILE SPREADING GRADUALLY INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
AND VICTORIA AREA. THE CURRENT FCST HAS THIS SCENARO COVERED WELL.

&&

.MARINE...AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WANE
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN. SEAS WL AVG AROUND 2
FT. AS NOTED ABOVE...CONVECTION WL BE DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
ASSCTN WITH THE SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  76  90  76  /  30  50  20  40  20
VICTORIA          74  88  73  92  73  /  30  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            73  96  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             74  91  74  93  74  /  20  40  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  86  78  88  78  /  40  50  20  40  30
COTULLA           72  95  75  95  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  90  75  93  75  /  30  40  20  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  79  89  78  /  40  50  20  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010150
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
850 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA AS THE
AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WL ADJUST
POPS ACCORDINGLY THROUGH 06Z.  THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION IN
ASSCTN WITH THE UPR LOW WL BEGIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
08Z. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WHILE SPREADING GRADUALLY INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
AND VICTORIA AREA. THE CURRENT FCST HAS THIS SCENARO COVERED WELL.

&&

.MARINE...AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WANE
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN. SEAS WL AVG AROUND 2
FT. AS NOTED ABOVE...CONVECTION WL BE DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
ASSCTN WITH THE SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  76  90  76  /  30  50  20  40  20
VICTORIA          74  88  73  92  73  /  30  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            73  96  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             74  91  74  93  74  /  20  40  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  86  78  88  78  /  40  50  20  40  30
COTULLA           72  95  75  95  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  90  75  93  75  /  30  40  20  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  79  89  78  /  40  50  20  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010003
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
703 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO KLRD WL BE CLOSE TO
LINGERING SHOWERS THAT WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH TX WL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS HAS
STABILIZED FROM PRIOR CONVECTION AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. THE LINGERING UPR LOW AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WL ALLOW THE NEXT ROUND TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING TWDS THE
COAST BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. WL SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
AROUND 13Z FOR KCRP AND KVCT WITH KALI AROUND AN HOUR LATER.
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY NOON ACROSS
MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS
ACTED UPON BY THE UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SEABREEZE. WL SHOW
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING KLRD BY 22Z WITH THE APPROACHING
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR AND
GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE QUASI-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WITH GENERALLY N-S AXIS OVER THE WRN
CWA. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DRG THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA AT
LEAST TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY. COPIOUS MSTR OFFSHORE SHOULD ENTER THE
COAST/ERN CWA OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)
THUS...ISOLD CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE CWA UNTIL AROUND 03Z
TUESDAY (NOT CONFIDENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION AS CIN VALUES INCREASE TNGT...UPPER FORCING
NOTWITHSTANDING.) SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
MSA/NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY (UPPER FORCING/LOWER
CIN/MSTR.) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY
(THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT 15Z TUESDAY PER NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONSISTENT WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.) DECAY IN
CONVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE A
LITTLE WETTER FOR LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW AXIS SHIFTING JUST E OF THE
CWA BY WED...BUT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS E SO DO THE BETTER RAIN CHCS THU INTO FRI. THE
MODELS PROG THE UPPER LOW TO BEGIN TO MOVE W FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THUS RESULTING IN A DEEPER E TO SE FLOW. MODELS PROG PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.8 AT TIMES THROUGH THE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...KEPT 20-30 POPS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
WIND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  76  90  76  /  30  50  20  40  20
VICTORIA          74  88  73  92  73  /  30  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            73  96  76  98  76  /  20  10  10  20  10
ALICE             74  91  74  93  74  /  20  40  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  86  78  88  78  /  40  50  20  40  30
COTULLA           72  95  75  95  74  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  90  75  93  75  /  30  40  20  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  79  89  78  /  40  50  20  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010003
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
703 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO KLRD WL BE CLOSE TO
LINGERING SHOWERS THAT WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH TX WL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS HAS
STABILIZED FROM PRIOR CONVECTION AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. THE LINGERING UPR LOW AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WL ALLOW THE NEXT ROUND TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING TWDS THE
COAST BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. WL SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
AROUND 13Z FOR KCRP AND KVCT WITH KALI AROUND AN HOUR LATER.
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY NOON ACROSS
MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS
ACTED UPON BY THE UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SEABREEZE. WL SHOW
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING KLRD BY 22Z WITH THE APPROACHING
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR AND
GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE QUASI-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WITH GENERALLY N-S AXIS OVER THE WRN
CWA. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DRG THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA AT
LEAST TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY. COPIOUS MSTR OFFSHORE SHOULD ENTER THE
COAST/ERN CWA OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)
THUS...ISOLD CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE CWA UNTIL AROUND 03Z
TUESDAY (NOT CONFIDENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION AS CIN VALUES INCREASE TNGT...UPPER FORCING
NOTWITHSTANDING.) SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
MSA/NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY (UPPER FORCING/LOWER
CIN/MSTR.) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY
(THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT 15Z TUESDAY PER NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONSISTENT WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.) DECAY IN
CONVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE A
LITTLE WETTER FOR LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW AXIS SHIFTING JUST E OF THE
CWA BY WED...BUT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS E SO DO THE BETTER RAIN CHCS THU INTO FRI. THE
MODELS PROG THE UPPER LOW TO BEGIN TO MOVE W FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THUS RESULTING IN A DEEPER E TO SE FLOW. MODELS PROG PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.8 AT TIMES THROUGH THE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...KEPT 20-30 POPS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
WIND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  76  90  76  /  30  50  20  40  20
VICTORIA          74  88  73  92  73  /  30  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            73  96  76  98  76  /  20  10  10  20  10
ALICE             74  91  74  93  74  /  20  40  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  86  78  88  78  /  40  50  20  40  30
COTULLA           72  95  75  95  74  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  90  75  93  75  /  30  40  20  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  79  89  78  /  40  50  20  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010003
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
703 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO KLRD WL BE CLOSE TO
LINGERING SHOWERS THAT WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH TX WL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS HAS
STABILIZED FROM PRIOR CONVECTION AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. THE LINGERING UPR LOW AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WL ALLOW THE NEXT ROUND TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING TWDS THE
COAST BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. WL SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
AROUND 13Z FOR KCRP AND KVCT WITH KALI AROUND AN HOUR LATER.
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY NOON ACROSS
MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS
ACTED UPON BY THE UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SEABREEZE. WL SHOW
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING KLRD BY 22Z WITH THE APPROACHING
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR AND
GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE QUASI-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WITH GENERALLY N-S AXIS OVER THE WRN
CWA. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DRG THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA AT
LEAST TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY. COPIOUS MSTR OFFSHORE SHOULD ENTER THE
COAST/ERN CWA OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)
THUS...ISOLD CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE CWA UNTIL AROUND 03Z
TUESDAY (NOT CONFIDENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION AS CIN VALUES INCREASE TNGT...UPPER FORCING
NOTWITHSTANDING.) SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
MSA/NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY (UPPER FORCING/LOWER
CIN/MSTR.) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY
(THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT 15Z TUESDAY PER NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONSISTENT WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.) DECAY IN
CONVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE A
LITTLE WETTER FOR LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW AXIS SHIFTING JUST E OF THE
CWA BY WED...BUT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS E SO DO THE BETTER RAIN CHCS THU INTO FRI. THE
MODELS PROG THE UPPER LOW TO BEGIN TO MOVE W FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THUS RESULTING IN A DEEPER E TO SE FLOW. MODELS PROG PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.8 AT TIMES THROUGH THE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...KEPT 20-30 POPS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
WIND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  76  90  76  /  30  50  20  40  20
VICTORIA          74  88  73  92  73  /  30  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            73  96  76  98  76  /  20  10  10  20  10
ALICE             74  91  74  93  74  /  20  40  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  86  78  88  78  /  40  50  20  40  30
COTULLA           72  95  75  95  74  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  90  75  93  75  /  30  40  20  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  79  89  78  /  40  50  20  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010003
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
703 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO KLRD WL BE CLOSE TO
LINGERING SHOWERS THAT WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH TX WL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS HAS
STABILIZED FROM PRIOR CONVECTION AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. THE LINGERING UPR LOW AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WL ALLOW THE NEXT ROUND TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING TWDS THE
COAST BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. WL SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
AROUND 13Z FOR KCRP AND KVCT WITH KALI AROUND AN HOUR LATER.
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY NOON ACROSS
MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS
ACTED UPON BY THE UPR LOW AND DEVELOPING SEABREEZE. WL SHOW
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING KLRD BY 22Z WITH THE APPROACHING
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR AND
GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE QUASI-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WITH GENERALLY N-S AXIS OVER THE WRN
CWA. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DRG THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA AT
LEAST TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY. COPIOUS MSTR OFFSHORE SHOULD ENTER THE
COAST/ERN CWA OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)
THUS...ISOLD CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE CWA UNTIL AROUND 03Z
TUESDAY (NOT CONFIDENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION AS CIN VALUES INCREASE TNGT...UPPER FORCING
NOTWITHSTANDING.) SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
MSA/NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY (UPPER FORCING/LOWER
CIN/MSTR.) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY
(THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT 15Z TUESDAY PER NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONSISTENT WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.) DECAY IN
CONVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE A
LITTLE WETTER FOR LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW AXIS SHIFTING JUST E OF THE
CWA BY WED...BUT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS E SO DO THE BETTER RAIN CHCS THU INTO FRI. THE
MODELS PROG THE UPPER LOW TO BEGIN TO MOVE W FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THUS RESULTING IN A DEEPER E TO SE FLOW. MODELS PROG PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.8 AT TIMES THROUGH THE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...KEPT 20-30 POPS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
WIND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  76  90  76  /  30  50  20  40  20
VICTORIA          74  88  73  92  73  /  30  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            73  96  76  98  76  /  20  10  10  20  10
ALICE             74  91  74  93  74  /  20  40  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  86  78  88  78  /  40  50  20  40  30
COTULLA           72  95  75  95  74  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  90  75  93  75  /  30  40  20  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  79  89  78  /  40  50  20  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 312048
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
348 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR AND
GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE QUASI-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WITH GENERALLY N-S AXIS OVER THE WRN
CWA. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DRG THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA AT
LEAST TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY. COPIOUS MSTR OFFSHORE SHOULD ENTER THE
COAST/ERN CWA OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)
THUS...ISOLD CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE CWA UNTIL AROUND 03Z
TUESDAY (NOT CONFIDENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION AS CIN VALUES INCREASE TNGT...UPPER FORCING
NOTWITHSTANDING.) SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
MSA/NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY (UPPER FORCING/LOWER
CIN/MSTR.) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY
(THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT 15Z TUESDAY PER NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONSISTENT WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.) DECAY IN
CONVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE A
LITTLE WETTER FOR LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW AXIS SHIFTING JUST E OF THE
CWA BY WED...BUT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS E SO DO THE BETTER RAIN CHCS THU INTO FRI. THE
MODELS PROG THE UPPER LOW TO BEGIN TO MOVE W FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THUS RESULTING IN A DEEPER E TO SE FLOW. MODELS PROG PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.8 AT TIMES THROUGH THE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...KEPT 20-30 POPS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
WIND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  76  90  76  /  30  50  20  40  20
VICTORIA          74  88  73  92  73  /  30  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            73  96  76  98  76  /  20  10  10  20  10
ALICE             74  91  74  93  74  /  20  40  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  86  78  88  78  /  40  50  20  40  30
COTULLA           72  95  75  95  74  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  90  75  93  75  /  30  40  20  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  79  89  78  /  40  50  20  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 312048
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
348 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR AND
GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE QUASI-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WITH GENERALLY N-S AXIS OVER THE WRN
CWA. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DRG THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA AT
LEAST TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY. COPIOUS MSTR OFFSHORE SHOULD ENTER THE
COAST/ERN CWA OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)
THUS...ISOLD CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE CWA UNTIL AROUND 03Z
TUESDAY (NOT CONFIDENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION AS CIN VALUES INCREASE TNGT...UPPER FORCING
NOTWITHSTANDING.) SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
MSA/NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY (UPPER FORCING/LOWER
CIN/MSTR.) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY
(THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT 15Z TUESDAY PER NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONSISTENT WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.) DECAY IN
CONVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE A
LITTLE WETTER FOR LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW AXIS SHIFTING JUST E OF THE
CWA BY WED...BUT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS E SO DO THE BETTER RAIN CHCS THU INTO FRI. THE
MODELS PROG THE UPPER LOW TO BEGIN TO MOVE W FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THUS RESULTING IN A DEEPER E TO SE FLOW. MODELS PROG PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.8 AT TIMES THROUGH THE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...KEPT 20-30 POPS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
WIND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  76  90  76  /  30  50  20  40  20
VICTORIA          74  88  73  92  73  /  30  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            73  96  76  98  76  /  20  10  10  20  10
ALICE             74  91  74  93  74  /  20  40  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  86  78  88  78  /  40  50  20  40  30
COTULLA           72  95  75  95  74  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  90  75  93  75  /  30  40  20  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  79  89  78  /  40  50  20  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 311820
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
120 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DRG ISOLATED/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE
281. ANTICIPATE THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY/ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WATERS
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
MVFR CONDITION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING WHILE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL BEND. LGT/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LGT/VARIABLE WIND ANTICIPATED FOR
EARLY/MID MORNING TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR MOST OF NEXT 24 HRS. PATCHES OF STRATUS CURRENTLY
SHIFTING N ALONG RIO GRANDE MAY LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...CU FIELD TO DVLP ACROSS TERMINALS BY
MID MRNG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE UNTIL CU CIGS RISE ABOVE
3KFT BY LATE MRNG. CONVECTION MAY THREATEN MOST TERMINALS TODAY
WITH SCT SHRA DVLPNG BY LATE MRNG VCNTY KCRP/KALI WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF TSRA OCCRNG AROUND MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. KCRP WILL BE
ON EDGE OF ZONE WHERE BEST TS COVERAGE IS XPCTD...AND THUS WILL
ONLY CARRY VCTS THIS AFTN. HAVE TEMPO TS GROUPINGS FOR KVCT/KALI
THIS AFTN AS CONVECTION DVLPS WITH AID OF SEABREEZE. CONVECTION
MAY APPROACH KLRD LATE THIS AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT CURRENTLY
HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL REACH TERMINAL. MAINLY QUIET WX MOST OF
TONIGHT...WITH SCT SHRA APPROACHING KCRP/KVCT LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG SERLY 10 TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTN AFTER SEABREEZE PASSAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EARLY THIS
MORNING AN IMPRESSIVE LATE AUGUST H5 LOW DIGGING INTO THE NW CWA
WAS EASILY NOTICEABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY
INDICATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA
WHILE LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE PROG TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. AN UNSTABLE
MARINE AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS CROSSING THE SHORE
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. BY LATE MORNING...ENOUGH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY /ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHT
FIELDS/ SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING/DEVELOPING INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE ACTIVATES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE VALUES AND INSTABILITY ARE PROG TO BE THE GREATEST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY LATE IN THE DAY AS SEABREEZE ARRIVES. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM /PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS
SBCAPES OF 300O TO 4000 J/KG ARE PROG TO BE IN PLACE AND AS BASE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. DEEPER MOISTURE
/PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ IS PROG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH BASE OF PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA...ANY DIURNAL WARMING SHOULD BE THE NEEDED /TRIGGER/ TO LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WITH COVERAGE IN
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING INLAND AND BASED MORE UPON SEABREEZE
INTERACTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RATHER TRICKY TODAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY. RATHER MUGGY NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LOW WILL PULL EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH A MID LVL SHEAR AXIS LOOKS
TO GET LEFT BEHIND.  MOISTURE WILL DECREASE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
TOTALLY REMOVE LOW POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THE
WATERS.  OVERALL THE MEX TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR
HIGHS AND LEANED CLOSER TO THE COOLER HPC NUMBERS.   DEEP MSTR
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.  MEX
TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT
BY A CPL DEGREES.

MARINE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS/ OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN AREAL
COVERAGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODERATE SE FLOW TODAY
/STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...GULF WATERS MAY BE RATHER
GUSTY /SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  92  76  91  76  /  30  50  30  30  20
VICTORIA          73  93  75  92  73  /  30  50  30  30  20
LAREDO            76  99  77  99  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             73  96  75  96  74  /  20  40  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          78  90  80  88  78  /  40  50  30  30  20
COTULLA           74  98  75  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  94  76  95  75  /  30  50  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  90  80  89  78  /  40  50  30  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 311114 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF NEXT 24 HRS. PATCHES OF STRATUS CURRENTLY
SHIFTING N ALONG RIO GRANDE MAY LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...CU FIELD TO DVLP ACROSS TERMINALS BY
MID MRNG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE UNTIL CU CIGS RISE ABOVE
3KFT BY LATE MRNG. CONVECTION MAY THREATEN MOST TERMINALS TODAY
WITH SCT SHRA DVLPNG BY LATE MRNG VCNTY KCRP/KALI WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF TSRA OCCRNG AROUND MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. KCRP WILL BE
ON EDGE OF ZONE WHERE BEST TS COVERAGE IS XPCTD...AND THUS WILL
ONLY CARRY VCTS THIS AFTN. HAVE TEMPO TS GROUPINGS FOR KVCT/KALI
THIS AFTN AS CONVECTION DVLPS WITH AID OF SEABREEZE. CONVECTION
MAY APPROACH KLRD LATE THIS AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT CURRENTLY
HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL REACH TERMINAL. MAINLY QUIET WX MOST OF
TONIGHT...WITH SCT SHRA APPROACHING KCRP/KVCT LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG SERLY 10 TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTN AFTER SEABREEZE PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EARLY THIS
MORNING AN IMPRESSIVE LATE AUGUST H5 LOW DIGGING INTO THE NW CWA
WAS EASILY NOTICEABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY
INDICATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA
WHILE LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE PROG TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. AN UNSTABLE
MARINE AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS CROSSING THE SHORE
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. BY LATE MORNING...ENOUGH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY /ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHT
FIELDS/ SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING/DEVELOPING INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE ACTIVATES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE VALUES AND INSTABILITY ARE PROG TO BE THE GREATEST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY LATE IN THE DAY AS SEABREEZE ARRIVES. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM /PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS
SBCAPES OF 300O TO 4000 J/KG ARE PROG TO BE IN PLACE AND AS BASE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. DEEPER MOISTURE
/PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ IS PROG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH BASE OF PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA...ANY DIURNAL WARMING SHOULD BE THE NEEDED /TRIGGER/ TO LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WITH COVERAGE IN
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING INLAND AND BASED MORE UPON SEABREEZE
INTERACTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RATHER TRICKY TODAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY. RATHER MUGGY NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LOW WILL PULL EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH A MID LVL SHEAR AXIS LOOKS
TO GET LEFT BEHIND.  MOISTURE WILL DECREASE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
TOTALLY REMOVE LOW POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THE
WATERS.  OVERALL THE MEX TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR
HIGHS AND LEANED CLOSER TO THE COOLER HPC NUMBERS.   DEEP MSTR
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.  MEX
TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT
BY A CPL DEGREES.

MARINE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS/ OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN AREAL
COVERAGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODERATE SE FLOW TODAY
/STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...GULF WATERS MAY BE RATHER
GUSTY /SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  92  76  91  /  30  30  50  30  30
VICTORIA          94  73  93  75  92  /  30  30  50  30  30
LAREDO           100  76  99  77  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             97  73  96  75  96  /  40  20  40  20  30
ROCKPORT          91  78  90  80  88  /  30  40  50  30  30
COTULLA           99  74  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        96  75  94  76  95  /  40  30  50  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       90  78  90  80  89  /  30  40  50  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 311114 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF NEXT 24 HRS. PATCHES OF STRATUS CURRENTLY
SHIFTING N ALONG RIO GRANDE MAY LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...CU FIELD TO DVLP ACROSS TERMINALS BY
MID MRNG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE UNTIL CU CIGS RISE ABOVE
3KFT BY LATE MRNG. CONVECTION MAY THREATEN MOST TERMINALS TODAY
WITH SCT SHRA DVLPNG BY LATE MRNG VCNTY KCRP/KALI WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF TSRA OCCRNG AROUND MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. KCRP WILL BE
ON EDGE OF ZONE WHERE BEST TS COVERAGE IS XPCTD...AND THUS WILL
ONLY CARRY VCTS THIS AFTN. HAVE TEMPO TS GROUPINGS FOR KVCT/KALI
THIS AFTN AS CONVECTION DVLPS WITH AID OF SEABREEZE. CONVECTION
MAY APPROACH KLRD LATE THIS AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT CURRENTLY
HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL REACH TERMINAL. MAINLY QUIET WX MOST OF
TONIGHT...WITH SCT SHRA APPROACHING KCRP/KVCT LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG SERLY 10 TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTN AFTER SEABREEZE PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EARLY THIS
MORNING AN IMPRESSIVE LATE AUGUST H5 LOW DIGGING INTO THE NW CWA
WAS EASILY NOTICEABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY
INDICATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA
WHILE LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE PROG TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. AN UNSTABLE
MARINE AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS CROSSING THE SHORE
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. BY LATE MORNING...ENOUGH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY /ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHT
FIELDS/ SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING/DEVELOPING INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE ACTIVATES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE VALUES AND INSTABILITY ARE PROG TO BE THE GREATEST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY LATE IN THE DAY AS SEABREEZE ARRIVES. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM /PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS
SBCAPES OF 300O TO 4000 J/KG ARE PROG TO BE IN PLACE AND AS BASE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. DEEPER MOISTURE
/PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ IS PROG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH BASE OF PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA...ANY DIURNAL WARMING SHOULD BE THE NEEDED /TRIGGER/ TO LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WITH COVERAGE IN
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING INLAND AND BASED MORE UPON SEABREEZE
INTERACTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RATHER TRICKY TODAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY. RATHER MUGGY NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LOW WILL PULL EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH A MID LVL SHEAR AXIS LOOKS
TO GET LEFT BEHIND.  MOISTURE WILL DECREASE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
TOTALLY REMOVE LOW POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THE
WATERS.  OVERALL THE MEX TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR
HIGHS AND LEANED CLOSER TO THE COOLER HPC NUMBERS.   DEEP MSTR
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.  MEX
TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT
BY A CPL DEGREES.

MARINE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS/ OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN AREAL
COVERAGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODERATE SE FLOW TODAY
/STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...GULF WATERS MAY BE RATHER
GUSTY /SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  92  76  91  /  30  30  50  30  30
VICTORIA          94  73  93  75  92  /  30  30  50  30  30
LAREDO           100  76  99  77  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             97  73  96  75  96  /  40  20  40  20  30
ROCKPORT          91  78  90  80  88  /  30  40  50  30  30
COTULLA           99  74  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        96  75  94  76  95  /  40  30  50  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       90  78  90  80  89  /  30  40  50  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 311114 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF NEXT 24 HRS. PATCHES OF STRATUS CURRENTLY
SHIFTING N ALONG RIO GRANDE MAY LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...CU FIELD TO DVLP ACROSS TERMINALS BY
MID MRNG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE UNTIL CU CIGS RISE ABOVE
3KFT BY LATE MRNG. CONVECTION MAY THREATEN MOST TERMINALS TODAY
WITH SCT SHRA DVLPNG BY LATE MRNG VCNTY KCRP/KALI WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF TSRA OCCRNG AROUND MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. KCRP WILL BE
ON EDGE OF ZONE WHERE BEST TS COVERAGE IS XPCTD...AND THUS WILL
ONLY CARRY VCTS THIS AFTN. HAVE TEMPO TS GROUPINGS FOR KVCT/KALI
THIS AFTN AS CONVECTION DVLPS WITH AID OF SEABREEZE. CONVECTION
MAY APPROACH KLRD LATE THIS AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT CURRENTLY
HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL REACH TERMINAL. MAINLY QUIET WX MOST OF
TONIGHT...WITH SCT SHRA APPROACHING KCRP/KVCT LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG SERLY 10 TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTN AFTER SEABREEZE PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EARLY THIS
MORNING AN IMPRESSIVE LATE AUGUST H5 LOW DIGGING INTO THE NW CWA
WAS EASILY NOTICEABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY
INDICATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA
WHILE LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE PROG TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. AN UNSTABLE
MARINE AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS CROSSING THE SHORE
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. BY LATE MORNING...ENOUGH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY /ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHT
FIELDS/ SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING/DEVELOPING INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE ACTIVATES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE VALUES AND INSTABILITY ARE PROG TO BE THE GREATEST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY LATE IN THE DAY AS SEABREEZE ARRIVES. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM /PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS
SBCAPES OF 300O TO 4000 J/KG ARE PROG TO BE IN PLACE AND AS BASE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. DEEPER MOISTURE
/PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ IS PROG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH BASE OF PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA...ANY DIURNAL WARMING SHOULD BE THE NEEDED /TRIGGER/ TO LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WITH COVERAGE IN
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING INLAND AND BASED MORE UPON SEABREEZE
INTERACTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RATHER TRICKY TODAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY. RATHER MUGGY NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LOW WILL PULL EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH A MID LVL SHEAR AXIS LOOKS
TO GET LEFT BEHIND.  MOISTURE WILL DECREASE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
TOTALLY REMOVE LOW POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THE
WATERS.  OVERALL THE MEX TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR
HIGHS AND LEANED CLOSER TO THE COOLER HPC NUMBERS.   DEEP MSTR
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.  MEX
TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT
BY A CPL DEGREES.

MARINE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS/ OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN AREAL
COVERAGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODERATE SE FLOW TODAY
/STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...GULF WATERS MAY BE RATHER
GUSTY /SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  92  76  91  /  30  30  50  30  30
VICTORIA          94  73  93  75  92  /  30  30  50  30  30
LAREDO           100  76  99  77  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             97  73  96  75  96  /  40  20  40  20  30
ROCKPORT          91  78  90  80  88  /  30  40  50  30  30
COTULLA           99  74  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        96  75  94  76  95  /  40  30  50  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       90  78  90  80  89  /  30  40  50  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 311114 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF NEXT 24 HRS. PATCHES OF STRATUS CURRENTLY
SHIFTING N ALONG RIO GRANDE MAY LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...CU FIELD TO DVLP ACROSS TERMINALS BY
MID MRNG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE UNTIL CU CIGS RISE ABOVE
3KFT BY LATE MRNG. CONVECTION MAY THREATEN MOST TERMINALS TODAY
WITH SCT SHRA DVLPNG BY LATE MRNG VCNTY KCRP/KALI WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF TSRA OCCRNG AROUND MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. KCRP WILL BE
ON EDGE OF ZONE WHERE BEST TS COVERAGE IS XPCTD...AND THUS WILL
ONLY CARRY VCTS THIS AFTN. HAVE TEMPO TS GROUPINGS FOR KVCT/KALI
THIS AFTN AS CONVECTION DVLPS WITH AID OF SEABREEZE. CONVECTION
MAY APPROACH KLRD LATE THIS AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT CURRENTLY
HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL REACH TERMINAL. MAINLY QUIET WX MOST OF
TONIGHT...WITH SCT SHRA APPROACHING KCRP/KVCT LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG SERLY 10 TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTN AFTER SEABREEZE PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EARLY THIS
MORNING AN IMPRESSIVE LATE AUGUST H5 LOW DIGGING INTO THE NW CWA
WAS EASILY NOTICEABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY
INDICATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA
WHILE LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE PROG TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. AN UNSTABLE
MARINE AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS CROSSING THE SHORE
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. BY LATE MORNING...ENOUGH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY /ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHT
FIELDS/ SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING/DEVELOPING INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE ACTIVATES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE VALUES AND INSTABILITY ARE PROG TO BE THE GREATEST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY LATE IN THE DAY AS SEABREEZE ARRIVES. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM /PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS
SBCAPES OF 300O TO 4000 J/KG ARE PROG TO BE IN PLACE AND AS BASE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. DEEPER MOISTURE
/PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ IS PROG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH BASE OF PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA...ANY DIURNAL WARMING SHOULD BE THE NEEDED /TRIGGER/ TO LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WITH COVERAGE IN
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING INLAND AND BASED MORE UPON SEABREEZE
INTERACTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RATHER TRICKY TODAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY. RATHER MUGGY NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LOW WILL PULL EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH A MID LVL SHEAR AXIS LOOKS
TO GET LEFT BEHIND.  MOISTURE WILL DECREASE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
TOTALLY REMOVE LOW POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THE
WATERS.  OVERALL THE MEX TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR
HIGHS AND LEANED CLOSER TO THE COOLER HPC NUMBERS.   DEEP MSTR
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.  MEX
TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT
BY A CPL DEGREES.

MARINE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS/ OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN AREAL
COVERAGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODERATE SE FLOW TODAY
/STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...GULF WATERS MAY BE RATHER
GUSTY /SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  92  76  91  /  30  30  50  30  30
VICTORIA          94  73  93  75  92  /  30  30  50  30  30
LAREDO           100  76  99  77  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             97  73  96  75  96  /  40  20  40  20  30
ROCKPORT          91  78  90  80  88  /  30  40  50  30  30
COTULLA           99  74  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        96  75  94  76  95  /  40  30  50  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       90  78  90  80  89  /  30  40  50  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 310824
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EARLY THIS
MORNING AN IMPRESSIVE LATE AUGUST H5 LOW DIGGING INTO THE NW CWA
WAS EASILY NOTICEABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY
INDICATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA
WHILE LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE PROG TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. AN UNSTABLE
MARINE AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS CROSSING THE SHORE
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. BY LATE MORNING...ENOUGH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY /ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHT
FIELDS/ SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING/DEVELOPING INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE ACTIVATES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE VALUES AND INSTABILITY ARE PROG TO BE THE GREATEST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY LATE IN THE DAY AS SEABREEZE ARRIVES. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM /PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS
SBCAPES OF 300O TO 4000 J/KG ARE PROG TO BE IN PLACE AND AS BASE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. DEEPER MOISTURE
/PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ IS PROG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH BASE OF PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA...ANY DIURNAL WARMING SHOULD BE THE NEEDED /TRIGGER/ TO LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WITH COVERAGE IN
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING INLAND AND BASED MORE UPON SEABREEZE
INTERACTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RATHER TRICKY TODAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY. RATHER MUGGY NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LOW WILL PULL EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH A MID LVL SHEAR AXIS LOOKS
TO GET LEFT BEHIND.  MOISTURE WILL DECREASE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
TOTALLY REMOVE LOW POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THE
WATERS.  OVERALL THE MEX TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR
HIGHS AND LEANED CLOSER TO THE COOLER HPC NUMBERS.   DEEP MSTR
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.  MEX
TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT
BY A CPL DEGREES.
&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS/ OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN AREAL
COVERAGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODERATE SE FLOW TODAY
/STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...GULF WATERS MAY BE RATHER
GUSTY /SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  92  76  91  /  30  30  50  30  30
VICTORIA          94  73  93  75  92  /  30  30  50  30  30
LAREDO           100  76  99  77  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             97  73  96  75  96  /  40  20  40  20  30
ROCKPORT          91  78  90  80  88  /  30  40  50  30  30
COTULLA           99  74  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        96  75  94  76  95  /  40  30  50  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       90  78  90  80  89  /  30  40  50  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM/MARINE
TJ/70...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 310824
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EARLY THIS
MORNING AN IMPRESSIVE LATE AUGUST H5 LOW DIGGING INTO THE NW CWA
WAS EASILY NOTICEABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY
INDICATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA
WHILE LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE PROG TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. AN UNSTABLE
MARINE AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS CROSSING THE SHORE
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. BY LATE MORNING...ENOUGH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY /ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHT
FIELDS/ SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING/DEVELOPING INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE ACTIVATES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE VALUES AND INSTABILITY ARE PROG TO BE THE GREATEST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY LATE IN THE DAY AS SEABREEZE ARRIVES. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM /PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ AS
SBCAPES OF 300O TO 4000 J/KG ARE PROG TO BE IN PLACE AND AS BASE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. DEEPER MOISTURE
/PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ IS PROG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH BASE OF PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA...ANY DIURNAL WARMING SHOULD BE THE NEEDED /TRIGGER/ TO LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WITH COVERAGE IN
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING INLAND AND BASED MORE UPON SEABREEZE
INTERACTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RATHER TRICKY TODAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY. RATHER MUGGY NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LOW WILL PULL EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH A MID LVL SHEAR AXIS LOOKS
TO GET LEFT BEHIND.  MOISTURE WILL DECREASE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
TOTALLY REMOVE LOW POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THE
WATERS.  OVERALL THE MEX TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR
HIGHS AND LEANED CLOSER TO THE COOLER HPC NUMBERS.   DEEP MSTR
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.  MEX
TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT
BY A CPL DEGREES.
&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS/ OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN AREAL
COVERAGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODERATE SE FLOW TODAY
/STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...GULF WATERS MAY BE RATHER
GUSTY /SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  92  76  91  /  30  30  50  30  30
VICTORIA          94  73  93  75  92  /  30  30  50  30  30
LAREDO           100  76  99  77  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             97  73  96  75  96  /  40  20  40  20  30
ROCKPORT          91  78  90  80  88  /  30  40  50  30  30
COTULLA           99  74  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        96  75  94  76  95  /  40  30  50  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       90  78  90  80  89  /  30  40  50  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM/MARINE
TJ/70...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 310518 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1218 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION DRNG THE DAY MON. AREAS OF
STRATUS AND/OR BR PROG TO DVLP BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S
TX WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KLRD/KALI AND POSSIBLY KVCT.
ATTM XPCTNG KCRP TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE NIGHT. DRNG THE MRNG...CU
FIELD WILL DVLP ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AROUND MID MRNG UNTIL CIGS RISE ABOVE 3KFT WITH VFR TO THEN
PREVAIL REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA POSSIBLE
ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF MID TX COAST BY SUNRISE. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO OCCUR INLAND FROM EAST TO WEST FROM MID/LATE MRNG
MON THRU THE AFTN AND HAVE MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
12Z TAFS MAY REQUIRE TEMPO GROUPINGS FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. LIGHT
SSERLY SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT BECMG 10 T0 20 KTS FROM THE SE MON
AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  91  76  92  76  /  10  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          71  92  73  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            76  97  74 100  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             72  95  74  96  75  /  10  20  20  40  20
ROCKPORT          78  88  78  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           74  96  74  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  90  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 310518 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1218 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION DRNG THE DAY MON. AREAS OF
STRATUS AND/OR BR PROG TO DVLP BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S
TX WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KLRD/KALI AND POSSIBLY KVCT.
ATTM XPCTNG KCRP TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE NIGHT. DRNG THE MRNG...CU
FIELD WILL DVLP ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AROUND MID MRNG UNTIL CIGS RISE ABOVE 3KFT WITH VFR TO THEN
PREVAIL REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA POSSIBLE
ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF MID TX COAST BY SUNRISE. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO OCCUR INLAND FROM EAST TO WEST FROM MID/LATE MRNG
MON THRU THE AFTN AND HAVE MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
12Z TAFS MAY REQUIRE TEMPO GROUPINGS FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. LIGHT
SSERLY SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT BECMG 10 T0 20 KTS FROM THE SE MON
AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  91  76  92  76  /  10  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          71  92  73  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            76  97  74 100  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             72  95  74  96  75  /  10  20  20  40  20
ROCKPORT          78  88  78  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           74  96  74  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  90  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 310518 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1218 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION DRNG THE DAY MON. AREAS OF
STRATUS AND/OR BR PROG TO DVLP BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S
TX WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KLRD/KALI AND POSSIBLY KVCT.
ATTM XPCTNG KCRP TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE NIGHT. DRNG THE MRNG...CU
FIELD WILL DVLP ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AROUND MID MRNG UNTIL CIGS RISE ABOVE 3KFT WITH VFR TO THEN
PREVAIL REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA POSSIBLE
ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF MID TX COAST BY SUNRISE. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO OCCUR INLAND FROM EAST TO WEST FROM MID/LATE MRNG
MON THRU THE AFTN AND HAVE MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
12Z TAFS MAY REQUIRE TEMPO GROUPINGS FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. LIGHT
SSERLY SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT BECMG 10 T0 20 KTS FROM THE SE MON
AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  91  76  92  76  /  10  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          71  92  73  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            76  97  74 100  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             72  95  74  96  75  /  10  20  20  40  20
ROCKPORT          78  88  78  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           74  96  74  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  90  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 310518 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1218 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION DRNG THE DAY MON. AREAS OF
STRATUS AND/OR BR PROG TO DVLP BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S
TX WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KLRD/KALI AND POSSIBLY KVCT.
ATTM XPCTNG KCRP TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE NIGHT. DRNG THE MRNG...CU
FIELD WILL DVLP ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AROUND MID MRNG UNTIL CIGS RISE ABOVE 3KFT WITH VFR TO THEN
PREVAIL REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA POSSIBLE
ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF MID TX COAST BY SUNRISE. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO OCCUR INLAND FROM EAST TO WEST FROM MID/LATE MRNG
MON THRU THE AFTN AND HAVE MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
12Z TAFS MAY REQUIRE TEMPO GROUPINGS FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION. LIGHT
SSERLY SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT BECMG 10 T0 20 KTS FROM THE SE MON
AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  91  76  92  76  /  10  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          71  92  73  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            76  97  74 100  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             72  95  74  96  75  /  10  20  20  40  20
ROCKPORT          78  88  78  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           74  96  74  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  90  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 310218
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
918 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW CENTERED
BETWEEN EAGLE PASS AND UVALDE...MOVING SLOWLY SSE TWDS THE CWA.
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THIS UPR LOW IS
CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE. COULD STILL SEE A STRAY ELEVATED SHOWER
ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BUT THAT IS PRETTY REMOTE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE OVERALL DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SO A MOSTLY DRY
FCST IS STILL EXPECTED TNT FOR SOUTH TX. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
INCREASED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSCTD WITH THE UPR LOW MOVING INTO THE
CWA.

&&

.MARINE...GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LYR
CONVERGENCE WL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WATERS. SOME OF THESE MAY GET CLOSE TO THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND WL BE
BELOW 10 KT EVERYWHERE BY THE EARLY MORNING. SEAS WL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 2 FT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  91  76  92  76  /  10  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          71  92  73  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            76  97  74 100  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             72  95  74  96  75  /  10  20  20  40  20
ROCKPORT          78  88  78  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           74  96  74  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  90  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 310218
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
918 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW CENTERED
BETWEEN EAGLE PASS AND UVALDE...MOVING SLOWLY SSE TWDS THE CWA.
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THIS UPR LOW IS
CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE. COULD STILL SEE A STRAY ELEVATED SHOWER
ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BUT THAT IS PRETTY REMOTE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE OVERALL DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SO A MOSTLY DRY
FCST IS STILL EXPECTED TNT FOR SOUTH TX. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
INCREASED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSCTD WITH THE UPR LOW MOVING INTO THE
CWA.

&&

.MARINE...GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LYR
CONVERGENCE WL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WATERS. SOME OF THESE MAY GET CLOSE TO THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND WL BE
BELOW 10 KT EVERYWHERE BY THE EARLY MORNING. SEAS WL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 2 FT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  91  76  92  76  /  10  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          71  92  73  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            76  97  74 100  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             72  95  74  96  75  /  10  20  20  40  20
ROCKPORT          78  88  78  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           74  96  74  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  90  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 302332
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU INTO SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY TNT. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN TMW AS THE UPR
LOW WL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WL BE IN
THE VCNTY OF THE SEABREEZE AS IT PASSES ALI AND VCT BETWEEN 20Z
AND 22Z. SOME ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALI AND VCT BY
11Z BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS
AND NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
CNTRL TX. CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH N-S AXIS WL MEANDER OVER THE CWA DRG THE PERIOD
WITH THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (700-300MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE) OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA. GOES SOUNDER DPI TPW FIELD
ANALYSES REVEAL AN INCREASE IN MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA TODAY. CONCUR
WITH THE NAM DETERMINISTIC WHICH GRADUALLY INCREASE PWAT VALUES
FURTHER OVER THE CWA/MSA TNGT/MONDAY. ANTICIPATE ISOLD ELEVATED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA/MSA MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES EXPECTED
OVER THE MSA/ERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WHICH
SHOULD COMBINE WITH UPPER FORCING TO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
CONVECTION. NO GREATER THAN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS DRG THE PERIOD. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT PREDICT THAT PRIMARY
SWELL PERIODS AND SWELL HEIGHTS WL REMAIN WELL BELOW RIP CURRENT
RISK THRESHOLDS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100F OR LESS
EXPECTED MONDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS E AND S TX THROUGH TUE
BUT A TAD FARTHER W WHICH WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE WENT WITH 20 POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TO 50 OVER THE WATERS FOR TUE MORNING. BY TUE
AFTERNOON...THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND WITH RAIN CHCS
DECREASING SOMEWHAT OVER THE WATERS. RAIN CHCS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TUE EVENING THEN REDVLP TOWARD EARLY WED MORNING. THE RAIN
CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WED DUE TO THE
UPPER TROF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY E. RAIN CHCS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THU
AND FRI FROM W TO E AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE NW GULF
PLACING S TX ON DRIER/SUBSIDENT W SIDE OF THE TROF. FEEL THAT THE
SUPER BLEND OUTPUT THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN PRODUCING POPS THAT
ARE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PLACEMENT OF
UPPER TROF...ESPECIALLY WED THROUGH SAT. THUS...DID NOT GO AS HIGH
AS THE SUPER BLEND FOR MOST DAYS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BUT DID SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE FOR TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHCS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  91  76  92  76  /  20  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          71  92  73  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            76  97  74 100  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             72  95  74  96  75  /  20  20  20  40  20
ROCKPORT          78  88  78  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           74  96  74  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  94  75  95  76  /  20  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  90  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 302332
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU INTO SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY TNT. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN TMW AS THE UPR
LOW WL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WL BE IN
THE VCNTY OF THE SEABREEZE AS IT PASSES ALI AND VCT BETWEEN 20Z
AND 22Z. SOME ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALI AND VCT BY
11Z BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS
AND NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
CNTRL TX. CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH N-S AXIS WL MEANDER OVER THE CWA DRG THE PERIOD
WITH THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (700-300MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE) OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA. GOES SOUNDER DPI TPW FIELD
ANALYSES REVEAL AN INCREASE IN MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA TODAY. CONCUR
WITH THE NAM DETERMINISTIC WHICH GRADUALLY INCREASE PWAT VALUES
FURTHER OVER THE CWA/MSA TNGT/MONDAY. ANTICIPATE ISOLD ELEVATED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA/MSA MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES EXPECTED
OVER THE MSA/ERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WHICH
SHOULD COMBINE WITH UPPER FORCING TO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
CONVECTION. NO GREATER THAN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS DRG THE PERIOD. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT PREDICT THAT PRIMARY
SWELL PERIODS AND SWELL HEIGHTS WL REMAIN WELL BELOW RIP CURRENT
RISK THRESHOLDS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100F OR LESS
EXPECTED MONDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS E AND S TX THROUGH TUE
BUT A TAD FARTHER W WHICH WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE WENT WITH 20 POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TO 50 OVER THE WATERS FOR TUE MORNING. BY TUE
AFTERNOON...THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND WITH RAIN CHCS
DECREASING SOMEWHAT OVER THE WATERS. RAIN CHCS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TUE EVENING THEN REDVLP TOWARD EARLY WED MORNING. THE RAIN
CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WED DUE TO THE
UPPER TROF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY E. RAIN CHCS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THU
AND FRI FROM W TO E AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE NW GULF
PLACING S TX ON DRIER/SUBSIDENT W SIDE OF THE TROF. FEEL THAT THE
SUPER BLEND OUTPUT THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN PRODUCING POPS THAT
ARE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PLACEMENT OF
UPPER TROF...ESPECIALLY WED THROUGH SAT. THUS...DID NOT GO AS HIGH
AS THE SUPER BLEND FOR MOST DAYS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BUT DID SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE FOR TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHCS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  91  76  92  76  /  20  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          71  92  73  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            76  97  74 100  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             72  95  74  96  75  /  20  20  20  40  20
ROCKPORT          78  88  78  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           74  96  74  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  94  75  95  76  /  20  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  90  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 302037
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
337 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS
AND NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
CNTRL TX. CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH N-S AXIS WL MEANDER OVER THE CWA DRG THE PERIOD
WITH THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (700-300MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE) OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA. GOES SOUNDER DPI TPW FIELD
ANALYSES REVEAL AN INCREASE IN MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA TODAY. CONCUR
WITH THE NAM DETERMINISTIC WHICH GRADUALLY INCREASE PWAT VALUES
FURTHER OVER THE CWA/MSA TNGT/MONDAY. ANTICIPATE ISOLD ELEVATED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA/MSA MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES EXPECTED
OVER THE MSA/ERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WHICH
SHOULD COMBINE WITH UPPER FORCING TO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
CONVECTION. NO GREATER THAN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS DRG THE PERIOD. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT PREDICT THAT PRIMARY
SWELL PERIODS AND SWELL HEIGHTS WL REMAIN WELL BELOW RIP CURRENT
RISK THRESHOLDS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100F OR LESS
EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS E AND S TX THROUGH TUE
BUT A TAD FARTHER W WHICH WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE WENT WITH 20 POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TO 50 OVER THE WATERS FOR TUE MORNING. BY TUE
AFTERNOON...THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND WITH RAIN CHCS
DECREASING SOMEWHAT OVER THE WATERS. RAIN CHCS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TUE EVENING THEN REDVLP TOWARD EARLY WED MORNING. THE RAIN
CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WED DUE TO THE
UPPER TROF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY E. RAIN CHCS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THU
AND FRI FROM W TO E AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE NW GULF
PLACING S TX ON DRIER/SUBSIDENT W SIDE OF THE TROF. FEEL THAT THE
SUPER BLEND OUTPUT THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN PRODUCING POPS THAT
ARE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PLACEMENT OF
UPPER TROF...ESPECIALLY WED THROUGH SAT. THUS...DID NOT GO AS HIGH
AS THE SUPER BLEND FOR MOST DAYS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BUT DID SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE FOR TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHCS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  91  76  92  76  /  20  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          71  92  73  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            76  97  74 100  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             72  95  74  96  75  /  20  20  20  40  20
ROCKPORT          78  88  78  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           74  96  74  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  94  75  95  76  /  20  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  90  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 302037
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
337 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS
AND NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
CNTRL TX. CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH N-S AXIS WL MEANDER OVER THE CWA DRG THE PERIOD
WITH THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (700-300MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE) OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA. GOES SOUNDER DPI TPW FIELD
ANALYSES REVEAL AN INCREASE IN MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA TODAY. CONCUR
WITH THE NAM DETERMINISTIC WHICH GRADUALLY INCREASE PWAT VALUES
FURTHER OVER THE CWA/MSA TNGT/MONDAY. ANTICIPATE ISOLD ELEVATED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA/MSA MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES EXPECTED
OVER THE MSA/ERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WHICH
SHOULD COMBINE WITH UPPER FORCING TO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
CONVECTION. NO GREATER THAN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS DRG THE PERIOD. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT PREDICT THAT PRIMARY
SWELL PERIODS AND SWELL HEIGHTS WL REMAIN WELL BELOW RIP CURRENT
RISK THRESHOLDS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100F OR LESS
EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS E AND S TX THROUGH TUE
BUT A TAD FARTHER W WHICH WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE WENT WITH 20 POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TO 50 OVER THE WATERS FOR TUE MORNING. BY TUE
AFTERNOON...THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND WITH RAIN CHCS
DECREASING SOMEWHAT OVER THE WATERS. RAIN CHCS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TUE EVENING THEN REDVLP TOWARD EARLY WED MORNING. THE RAIN
CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WED DUE TO THE
UPPER TROF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY E. RAIN CHCS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THU
AND FRI FROM W TO E AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE NW GULF
PLACING S TX ON DRIER/SUBSIDENT W SIDE OF THE TROF. FEEL THAT THE
SUPER BLEND OUTPUT THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN PRODUCING POPS THAT
ARE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PLACEMENT OF
UPPER TROF...ESPECIALLY WED THROUGH SAT. THUS...DID NOT GO AS HIGH
AS THE SUPER BLEND FOR MOST DAYS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BUT DID SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE FOR TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHCS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  91  76  92  76  /  20  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          71  92  73  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            76  97  74 100  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             72  95  74  96  75  /  20  20  20  40  20
ROCKPORT          78  88  78  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           74  96  74  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  94  75  95  76  /  20  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  90  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 301750
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMIATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. PATCHY FOG...WITH MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITIES...ANTICIPATED DRG THE 09-14Z MONDAY PERIOD GENERALLY
WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND/COASTAL WATERS. GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN LGT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...DECIDED TO ADD ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
AREAWIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ANALYSES AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT. MSTR REMAINS
THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...YET GOES SOUNDER DPI PWAT OUTPUT
DEPICT AN INCREASE IN MSTR FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH. WL ISSUE
20 POPS FOR THE SERN CWA/SRN MSA WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS
ELSEWHERE. WL CONFINE THUNDER TO THE SRN CWA OWING TO RECENT CAPE
TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF WRITING WITH CIGS AT
OR GREATER THAN 3KFT. MORE ORGANIZED CU FIELD SHOULD DVLP BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID MRNG AT KCRP/KALI/KVCT IF CIGS LOWER
ENOUGH. CU FIELD SHOULD THIN BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH LITTLE TO NO
LLVL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BR/PATCHES OF STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE REGION. LIGHT/VRB
SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG ESERLY 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER SEABREEZE
PASSAGE THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT/VRB AGAIN OVERNIGHT /MORE SERLY
THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS EWX CWA
HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MESOANALYSIS AND
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BUT GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY H85 TO H5 WILL PERSIST...THUS
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA /PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH/ WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MARINE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY CROSSING
SHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO
BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IF MOISTURE VALUES END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY NIGHT (SEA-BREEZE APPARENTLY)...AS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH SURFACE FORCING AND POTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
(AND ITS ASSOCIATED ADVECTION). DID EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE THERE. BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA...APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF STILL HAVE VERY HIGH POPS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND DID TREND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AFTER THAT...AND TAKES THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH
IT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE THE FEELING THAT RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS DO PLACE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
LOUISIANA AND HAVE OUR AREA UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (WAS ALMOST TEMPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN GOING
IN CASE TROUGH IS NOT THAT FAR TO THE EAST). FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN GOING WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS AS
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD (DUE TO THE
HIGH POPS). JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPERBLEND MIN
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MAINTAINED ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...WEAK SSE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  92  76  92  77  /  10  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          70  92  74  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            75  99  77  97  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             71  96  74  95  75  /  10  20  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          77  91  78  90  80  /  10  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           73  97  74  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  95  75  96  76  /  10  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  90  80  89  80  /  10  20  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 301750
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMIATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. PATCHY FOG...WITH MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITIES...ANTICIPATED DRG THE 09-14Z MONDAY PERIOD GENERALLY
WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND/COASTAL WATERS. GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN LGT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...DECIDED TO ADD ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
AREAWIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ANALYSES AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT. MSTR REMAINS
THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...YET GOES SOUNDER DPI PWAT OUTPUT
DEPICT AN INCREASE IN MSTR FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH. WL ISSUE
20 POPS FOR THE SERN CWA/SRN MSA WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS
ELSEWHERE. WL CONFINE THUNDER TO THE SRN CWA OWING TO RECENT CAPE
TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF WRITING WITH CIGS AT
OR GREATER THAN 3KFT. MORE ORGANIZED CU FIELD SHOULD DVLP BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID MRNG AT KCRP/KALI/KVCT IF CIGS LOWER
ENOUGH. CU FIELD SHOULD THIN BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH LITTLE TO NO
LLVL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BR/PATCHES OF STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE REGION. LIGHT/VRB
SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG ESERLY 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER SEABREEZE
PASSAGE THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT/VRB AGAIN OVERNIGHT /MORE SERLY
THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS EWX CWA
HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MESOANALYSIS AND
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BUT GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY H85 TO H5 WILL PERSIST...THUS
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA /PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH/ WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MARINE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY CROSSING
SHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO
BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IF MOISTURE VALUES END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY NIGHT (SEA-BREEZE APPARENTLY)...AS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH SURFACE FORCING AND POTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
(AND ITS ASSOCIATED ADVECTION). DID EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE THERE. BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA...APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF STILL HAVE VERY HIGH POPS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND DID TREND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AFTER THAT...AND TAKES THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH
IT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE THE FEELING THAT RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS DO PLACE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
LOUISIANA AND HAVE OUR AREA UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (WAS ALMOST TEMPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN GOING
IN CASE TROUGH IS NOT THAT FAR TO THE EAST). FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN GOING WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS AS
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD (DUE TO THE
HIGH POPS). JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPERBLEND MIN
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MAINTAINED ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...WEAK SSE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  92  76  92  77  /  10  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          70  92  74  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            75  99  77  97  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             71  96  74  95  75  /  10  20  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          77  91  78  90  80  /  10  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           73  97  74  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  95  75  96  76  /  10  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  90  80  89  80  /  10  20  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 301750
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMIATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. PATCHY FOG...WITH MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITIES...ANTICIPATED DRG THE 09-14Z MONDAY PERIOD GENERALLY
WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND/COASTAL WATERS. GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN LGT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...DECIDED TO ADD ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
AREAWIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ANALYSES AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT. MSTR REMAINS
THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...YET GOES SOUNDER DPI PWAT OUTPUT
DEPICT AN INCREASE IN MSTR FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH. WL ISSUE
20 POPS FOR THE SERN CWA/SRN MSA WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS
ELSEWHERE. WL CONFINE THUNDER TO THE SRN CWA OWING TO RECENT CAPE
TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF WRITING WITH CIGS AT
OR GREATER THAN 3KFT. MORE ORGANIZED CU FIELD SHOULD DVLP BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID MRNG AT KCRP/KALI/KVCT IF CIGS LOWER
ENOUGH. CU FIELD SHOULD THIN BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH LITTLE TO NO
LLVL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BR/PATCHES OF STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE REGION. LIGHT/VRB
SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG ESERLY 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER SEABREEZE
PASSAGE THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT/VRB AGAIN OVERNIGHT /MORE SERLY
THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS EWX CWA
HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MESOANALYSIS AND
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BUT GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY H85 TO H5 WILL PERSIST...THUS
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA /PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH/ WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MARINE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY CROSSING
SHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO
BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IF MOISTURE VALUES END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY NIGHT (SEA-BREEZE APPARENTLY)...AS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH SURFACE FORCING AND POTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
(AND ITS ASSOCIATED ADVECTION). DID EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE THERE. BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA...APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF STILL HAVE VERY HIGH POPS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND DID TREND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AFTER THAT...AND TAKES THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH
IT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE THE FEELING THAT RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS DO PLACE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
LOUISIANA AND HAVE OUR AREA UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (WAS ALMOST TEMPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN GOING
IN CASE TROUGH IS NOT THAT FAR TO THE EAST). FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN GOING WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS AS
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD (DUE TO THE
HIGH POPS). JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPERBLEND MIN
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MAINTAINED ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...WEAK SSE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  92  76  92  77  /  10  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          70  92  74  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            75  99  77  97  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             71  96  74  95  75  /  10  20  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          77  91  78  90  80  /  10  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           73  97  74  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  95  75  96  76  /  10  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  90  80  89  80  /  10  20  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 301750
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMIATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. PATCHY FOG...WITH MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITIES...ANTICIPATED DRG THE 09-14Z MONDAY PERIOD GENERALLY
WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND/COASTAL WATERS. GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN LGT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...DECIDED TO ADD ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
AREAWIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ANALYSES AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT. MSTR REMAINS
THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...YET GOES SOUNDER DPI PWAT OUTPUT
DEPICT AN INCREASE IN MSTR FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH. WL ISSUE
20 POPS FOR THE SERN CWA/SRN MSA WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS
ELSEWHERE. WL CONFINE THUNDER TO THE SRN CWA OWING TO RECENT CAPE
TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF WRITING WITH CIGS AT
OR GREATER THAN 3KFT. MORE ORGANIZED CU FIELD SHOULD DVLP BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID MRNG AT KCRP/KALI/KVCT IF CIGS LOWER
ENOUGH. CU FIELD SHOULD THIN BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH LITTLE TO NO
LLVL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BR/PATCHES OF STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE REGION. LIGHT/VRB
SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG ESERLY 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER SEABREEZE
PASSAGE THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT/VRB AGAIN OVERNIGHT /MORE SERLY
THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS EWX CWA
HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MESOANALYSIS AND
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BUT GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY H85 TO H5 WILL PERSIST...THUS
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA /PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH/ WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MARINE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY CROSSING
SHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO
BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IF MOISTURE VALUES END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY NIGHT (SEA-BREEZE APPARENTLY)...AS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH SURFACE FORCING AND POTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
(AND ITS ASSOCIATED ADVECTION). DID EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE THERE. BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA...APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF STILL HAVE VERY HIGH POPS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND DID TREND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AFTER THAT...AND TAKES THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH
IT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE THE FEELING THAT RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS DO PLACE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
LOUISIANA AND HAVE OUR AREA UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (WAS ALMOST TEMPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN GOING
IN CASE TROUGH IS NOT THAT FAR TO THE EAST). FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN GOING WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS AS
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD (DUE TO THE
HIGH POPS). JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPERBLEND MIN
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MAINTAINED ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...WEAK SSE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  92  76  92  77  /  10  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          70  92  74  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            75  99  77  97  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             71  96  74  95  75  /  10  20  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          77  91  78  90  80  /  10  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           73  97  74  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  95  75  96  76  /  10  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  90  80  89  80  /  10  20  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 301533 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...DECIDED TO ADD ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
AREAWIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ANALYSES AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT. MSTR REMAINS
THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...YET GOES SOUNDER DPI PWAT OUTPUT
DEPICT AN INCREASE IN MSTR FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH. WL ISSUE
20 POPS FOR THE SERN CWA/SRN MSA WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS
ELSEWHERE. WL CONFINE THUNDER TO THE SRN CWA OWING TO RECENT CAPE
TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF WRITING WITH CIGS AT
OR GREATER THAN 3KFT. MORE ORGANIZED CU FIELD SHOULD DVLP BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID MRNG AT KCRP/KALI/KVCT IF CIGS LOWER
ENOUGH. CU FIELD SHOULD THIN BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH LITTLE TO NO
LLVL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BR/PATCHES OF STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE REGION. LIGHT/VRB
SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG ESERLY 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER SEABREEZE
PASSAGE THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT/VRB AGAIN OVERNIGHT /MORE SERLY
THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS EWX CWA
HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MESOANALYSIS AND
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BUT GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY H85 TO H5 WILL PERSIST...THUS
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA /PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH/ WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MARINE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY CROSSING
SHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO
BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IF MOISTURE VALUES END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY NIGHT (SEA-BREEZE APPARENTLY)...AS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH SURFACE FORCING AND POTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
(AND ITS ASSOCIATED ADVECTION). DID EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE THERE. BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA...APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF STILL HAVE VERY HIGH POPS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND DID TREND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AFTER THAT...AND TAKES THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH
IT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE THE FEELING THAT RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS DO PLACE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
LOUISIANA AND HAVE OUR AREA UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (WAS ALMOST TEMPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN GOING
IN CASE TROUGH IS NOT THAT FAR TO THE EAST). FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN GOING WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS AS
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD (DUE TO THE
HIGH POPS). JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPERBLEND MIN
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MAINTAINED ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...WEAK SSE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  74  92  76  92  /  20  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          92  70  92  74  92  /  10  10  20  20  40
LAREDO           100  75  99  77  97  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             96  71  96  74  95  /  20  10  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  77  91  78  90  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           98  73  97  74  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        95  73  95  75  96  /  20  10  20  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       89  77  90  80  89  /  20  10  20  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 301533 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...DECIDED TO ADD ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
AREAWIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ANALYSES AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT. MSTR REMAINS
THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...YET GOES SOUNDER DPI PWAT OUTPUT
DEPICT AN INCREASE IN MSTR FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH. WL ISSUE
20 POPS FOR THE SERN CWA/SRN MSA WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS
ELSEWHERE. WL CONFINE THUNDER TO THE SRN CWA OWING TO RECENT CAPE
TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF WRITING WITH CIGS AT
OR GREATER THAN 3KFT. MORE ORGANIZED CU FIELD SHOULD DVLP BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID MRNG AT KCRP/KALI/KVCT IF CIGS LOWER
ENOUGH. CU FIELD SHOULD THIN BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH LITTLE TO NO
LLVL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BR/PATCHES OF STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE REGION. LIGHT/VRB
SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG ESERLY 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER SEABREEZE
PASSAGE THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT/VRB AGAIN OVERNIGHT /MORE SERLY
THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS EWX CWA
HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MESOANALYSIS AND
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BUT GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY H85 TO H5 WILL PERSIST...THUS
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA /PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH/ WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MARINE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY CROSSING
SHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO
BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IF MOISTURE VALUES END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY NIGHT (SEA-BREEZE APPARENTLY)...AS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH SURFACE FORCING AND POTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
(AND ITS ASSOCIATED ADVECTION). DID EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE THERE. BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA...APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF STILL HAVE VERY HIGH POPS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND DID TREND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AFTER THAT...AND TAKES THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH
IT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE THE FEELING THAT RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS DO PLACE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
LOUISIANA AND HAVE OUR AREA UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (WAS ALMOST TEMPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN GOING
IN CASE TROUGH IS NOT THAT FAR TO THE EAST). FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN GOING WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS AS
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD (DUE TO THE
HIGH POPS). JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPERBLEND MIN
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MAINTAINED ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...WEAK SSE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  74  92  76  92  /  20  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          92  70  92  74  92  /  10  10  20  20  40
LAREDO           100  75  99  77  97  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             96  71  96  74  95  /  20  10  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  77  91  78  90  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           98  73  97  74  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        95  73  95  75  96  /  20  10  20  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       89  77  90  80  89  /  20  10  20  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 301115 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF WRITING WITH CIGS AT
OR GREATER THAN 3KFT. MORE ORGANIZED CU FIELD SHOULD DVLP BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID MRNG AT KCRP/KALI/KVCT IF CIGS LOWER
ENOUGH. CU FIELD SHOULD THIN BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH LITTLE TO NO
LLVL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BR/PATCHES OF STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE REGION. LIGHT/VRB
SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG ESERLY 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER SEABREEZE
PASSAGE THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT/VRB AGAIN OVERNIGHT /MORE SERLY
THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS EWX CWA
HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MESOANALYSIS AND
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BUT GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY H85 TO H5 WILL PERSIST...THUS
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA /PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH/ WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MARINE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY CROSSING
SHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO
BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IF MOISTURE VALUES END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY NIGHT (SEA-BREEZE APPARENTLY)...AS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH SURFACE FORCING AND POTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
(AND ITS ASSOCIATED ADVECTION). DID EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE THERE. BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA...APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF STILL HAVE VERY HIGH POPS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND DID TREND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AFTER THAT...AND TAKES THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH
IT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE THE FEELING THAT RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS DO PLACE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
LOUISIANA AND HAVE OUR AREA UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (WAS ALMOST TEMPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN GOING
IN CASE TROUGH IS NOT THAT FAR TO THE EAST). FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN GOING WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS AS
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD (DUE TO THE
HIGH POPS). JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPERBLEND MIN
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MAINTAINED ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...WEAK SSE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  74  92  76  92  /  10  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          92  70  92  74  92  /  10  10  20  20  40
LAREDO           100  75  99  77  97  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             96  71  96  74  95  /  10  10  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  77  91  78  90  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           98  73  97  74  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        95  73  95  75  96  /  10  10  20  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       89  77  90  80  89  /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 301115 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF WRITING WITH CIGS AT
OR GREATER THAN 3KFT. MORE ORGANIZED CU FIELD SHOULD DVLP BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID MRNG AT KCRP/KALI/KVCT IF CIGS LOWER
ENOUGH. CU FIELD SHOULD THIN BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH LITTLE TO NO
LLVL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BR/PATCHES OF STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE REGION. LIGHT/VRB
SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG ESERLY 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER SEABREEZE
PASSAGE THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT/VRB AGAIN OVERNIGHT /MORE SERLY
THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS EWX CWA
HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MESOANALYSIS AND
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BUT GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY H85 TO H5 WILL PERSIST...THUS
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA /PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH/ WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MARINE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY CROSSING
SHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO
BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IF MOISTURE VALUES END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY NIGHT (SEA-BREEZE APPARENTLY)...AS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH SURFACE FORCING AND POTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
(AND ITS ASSOCIATED ADVECTION). DID EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE THERE. BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA...APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF STILL HAVE VERY HIGH POPS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND DID TREND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AFTER THAT...AND TAKES THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH
IT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE THE FEELING THAT RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS DO PLACE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
LOUISIANA AND HAVE OUR AREA UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (WAS ALMOST TEMPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN GOING
IN CASE TROUGH IS NOT THAT FAR TO THE EAST). FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN GOING WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS AS
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD (DUE TO THE
HIGH POPS). JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPERBLEND MIN
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MAINTAINED ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...WEAK SSE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  74  92  76  92  /  10  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          92  70  92  74  92  /  10  10  20  20  40
LAREDO           100  75  99  77  97  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             96  71  96  74  95  /  10  10  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  77  91  78  90  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           98  73  97  74  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        95  73  95  75  96  /  10  10  20  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       89  77  90  80  89  /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 301115 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF WRITING WITH CIGS AT
OR GREATER THAN 3KFT. MORE ORGANIZED CU FIELD SHOULD DVLP BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID MRNG AT KCRP/KALI/KVCT IF CIGS LOWER
ENOUGH. CU FIELD SHOULD THIN BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH LITTLE TO NO
LLVL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BR/PATCHES OF STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE REGION. LIGHT/VRB
SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG ESERLY 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER SEABREEZE
PASSAGE THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT/VRB AGAIN OVERNIGHT /MORE SERLY
THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS EWX CWA
HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MESOANALYSIS AND
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BUT GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY H85 TO H5 WILL PERSIST...THUS
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA /PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH/ WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MARINE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY CROSSING
SHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO
BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IF MOISTURE VALUES END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY NIGHT (SEA-BREEZE APPARENTLY)...AS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH SURFACE FORCING AND POTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
(AND ITS ASSOCIATED ADVECTION). DID EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE THERE. BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA...APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF STILL HAVE VERY HIGH POPS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND DID TREND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AFTER THAT...AND TAKES THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH
IT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE THE FEELING THAT RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS DO PLACE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
LOUISIANA AND HAVE OUR AREA UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (WAS ALMOST TEMPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN GOING
IN CASE TROUGH IS NOT THAT FAR TO THE EAST). FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN GOING WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS AS
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD (DUE TO THE
HIGH POPS). JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPERBLEND MIN
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MAINTAINED ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...WEAK SSE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  74  92  76  92  /  10  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          92  70  92  74  92  /  10  10  20  20  40
LAREDO           100  75  99  77  97  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             96  71  96  74  95  /  10  10  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  77  91  78  90  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           98  73  97  74  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        95  73  95  75  96  /  10  10  20  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       89  77  90  80  89  /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 301115 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF WRITING WITH CIGS AT
OR GREATER THAN 3KFT. MORE ORGANIZED CU FIELD SHOULD DVLP BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID MRNG AT KCRP/KALI/KVCT IF CIGS LOWER
ENOUGH. CU FIELD SHOULD THIN BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH LITTLE TO NO
LLVL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF BR/PATCHES OF STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE REGION. LIGHT/VRB
SFC WINDS THIS MRNG BECMG ESERLY 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER SEABREEZE
PASSAGE THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT/VRB AGAIN OVERNIGHT /MORE SERLY
THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS EWX CWA
HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MESOANALYSIS AND
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BUT GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY H85 TO H5 WILL PERSIST...THUS
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA /PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH/ WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MARINE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY CROSSING
SHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO
BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IF MOISTURE VALUES END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY NIGHT (SEA-BREEZE APPARENTLY)...AS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH SURFACE FORCING AND POTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
(AND ITS ASSOCIATED ADVECTION). DID EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE THERE. BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA...APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF STILL HAVE VERY HIGH POPS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND DID TREND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AFTER THAT...AND TAKES THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH
IT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE THE FEELING THAT RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS DO PLACE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
LOUISIANA AND HAVE OUR AREA UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (WAS ALMOST TEMPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN GOING
IN CASE TROUGH IS NOT THAT FAR TO THE EAST). FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN GOING WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS AS
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD (DUE TO THE
HIGH POPS). JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPERBLEND MIN
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MAINTAINED ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...WEAK SSE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  74  92  76  92  /  10  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          92  70  92  74  92  /  10  10  20  20  40
LAREDO           100  75  99  77  97  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             96  71  96  74  95  /  10  10  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  77  91  78  90  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           98  73  97  74  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        95  73  95  75  96  /  10  10  20  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       89  77  90  80  89  /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 300850
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS EWX CWA
HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MESOANALYSIS AND
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BUT GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY H85 TO H5 WILL PERSIST...THUS
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA /PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH/ WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MARINE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY CROSSING
SHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO
BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IF MOISTURE VALUES END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY NIGHT (SEA-BREEZE APPARENTLY)...AS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH SURFACE FORCING AND POTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
(AND ITS ASSOCIATED ADVECTION). DID EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE THERE. BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA...APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF STILL HAVE VERY HIGH POPS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND DID TREND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AFTER THAT...AND TAKES THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH
IT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE THE FEELING THAT RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS DO PLACE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
LOUISIANA AND HAVE OUR AREA UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (WAS ALMOST TEMPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN GOING
IN CASE TROUGH IS NOT THAT FAR TO THE EAST). FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN GOING WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS AS
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD (DUE TO THE
HIGH POPS). JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPERBLEND MIN
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MAINTAINED ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...WEAK SSE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  74  92  76  92  /  10  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          92  70  92  74  92  /  10  10  20  20  40
LAREDO           100  75  99  77  97  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             96  71  96  74  95  /  10  10  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  77  91  78  90  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           98  73  97  74  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        95  73  95  75  96  /  10  10  20  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       89  77  90  80  89  /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

HART/79...SHORT TERM/MARINE
WILK/86...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 300850
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS EWX CWA
HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MESOANALYSIS AND
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1 INCH REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BUT GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY AIR FROM ROUGHLY H85 TO H5 WILL PERSIST...THUS
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA /PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH/ WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MARINE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY CROSSING
SHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO
BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IF MOISTURE VALUES END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY NIGHT (SEA-BREEZE APPARENTLY)...AS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH SURFACE FORCING AND POTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
(AND ITS ASSOCIATED ADVECTION). DID EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL BE THERE. BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA...APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. ECMWF STILL HAVE VERY HIGH POPS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND DID TREND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS GUIDANCE. UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AFTER THAT...AND TAKES THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH
IT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE THE FEELING THAT RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS DO PLACE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
LOUISIANA AND HAVE OUR AREA UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (WAS ALMOST TEMPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN GOING
IN CASE TROUGH IS NOT THAT FAR TO THE EAST). FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN GOING WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS AS
ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COLD (DUE TO THE
HIGH POPS). JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPERBLEND MIN
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MAINTAINED ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...WEAK SSE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  74  92  76  92  /  10  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          92  70  92  74  92  /  10  10  20  20  40
LAREDO           100  75  99  77  97  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             96  71  96  74  95  /  10  10  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  77  91  78  90  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           98  73  97  74  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        95  73  95  75  96  /  10  10  20  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       89  77  90  80  89  /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

HART/79...SHORT TERM/MARINE
WILK/86...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 300527 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AT S TX TERMINALS.
WEAK LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY LOW END
MVFR CIGS TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SCT MVFR CIGS
/RATHER THAN BKN/ FOR KLRD/KALI FOR LATE TONIGHT/SUN MRNG.
OTHERWISE...CU FIELD WILL GRADUALLY DVLP DRNG THE DAY SUN
/ESPECIALLY KCRP TO KVCT/ WITH VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING. LIGHT/VRB
SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT BECMG ESERLY MID/LATE AFTN SUN AND SEABREEZE
PUSHES INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  91  75  94  75  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          70  91  73  93  73  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            73  98  76 100  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             69  95  72  97  73  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          76  88  78  89  78  /  10  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           70  96  72  98  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        71  94  74  95  74  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  87  78  90  79  /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 300527 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AT S TX TERMINALS.
WEAK LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY LOW END
MVFR CIGS TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SCT MVFR CIGS
/RATHER THAN BKN/ FOR KLRD/KALI FOR LATE TONIGHT/SUN MRNG.
OTHERWISE...CU FIELD WILL GRADUALLY DVLP DRNG THE DAY SUN
/ESPECIALLY KCRP TO KVCT/ WITH VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING. LIGHT/VRB
SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT BECMG ESERLY MID/LATE AFTN SUN AND SEABREEZE
PUSHES INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  91  75  94  75  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          70  91  73  93  73  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            73  98  76 100  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             69  95  72  97  73  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          76  88  78  89  78  /  10  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           70  96  72  98  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        71  94  74  95  74  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  87  78  90  79  /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 300302 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1002 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS TO FOLLOW TRENDS. AM WATCHING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH DEVELOPING WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA AS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...BUT DID RAISE TO 5 TO
10 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
DUE TO THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AS OF WRITING. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT
CRP-ALI-VCT BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BECOMING
VFR BY THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING E-SE
10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

NOTE TO USERS OF LRD AWSS...THE SITE APPEARS TO BE REPORTING
ERRONEOUS CLOUD COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR TRENDS
AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN TX.
CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH N-S AXIS OVER ERN/SRN TX SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. DESPITE INCREASING UPPER FORCING AND DECREASING
CIN/SIGNIFICANT CAPE SUNDAY...EXPECT MSTR LIMITATIONS TO PRECLUDE
CONVECTION. YET...ANTICIPATE THAT SLIGHTLY GREATER PWAT VALUES/LOW
CIN VALUES (NAM DETERMINISTIC) AND UPPER FORCING WL CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES SUNDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 100F. GENERALLY LGT
ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
PROGD TO BE DRAPED ACROSS E AND S TX MONDAY THROUGH TUE WHICH WILL
PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE E CWA AND MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED. FELT THAT THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
WAS TOO HIGH ON POPS MON-WED TIMEFRAME BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ALSO BY WED...THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS E PLACING
MORE OF THE CWA UNDER THE SUBSIDENT WEST SIDE OF THE TROF.
THEREFORE...WENT LOWER ON POPS THAN THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BUT KEPT
20-40 PERCENT WITH THE 40 OVER THE WATERS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  91  75  94  75  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          70  91  73  93  73  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            73  98  76 100  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             69  95  72  97  73  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          76  88  78  89  78  /  10  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           70  96  72  98  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        71  94  74  95  74  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  87  78  90  79  /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 292353 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
653 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AS OF WRITING. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT
CRP-ALI-VCT BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BECOMING
VFR BY THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING E-SE
10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

NOTE TO USERS OF LRD AWSS...THE SITE APPEARS TO BE REPORTING
ERRONEOUS CLOUD COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR TRENDS
AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN TX.
CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH N-S AXIS OVER ERN/SRN TX SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. DESPITE INCREASING UPPER FORCING AND DECREASING
CIN/SIGNIFICANT CAPE SUNDAY...EXPECT MSTR LIMITATIONS TO PRECLUDE
CONVECTION. YET...ANTICIPATE THAT SLIGHTLY GREATER PWAT VALUES/LOW
CIN VALUES (NAM DETERMINISTIC) AND UPPER FORCING WL CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES SUNDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 100F. GENERALLY LGT
ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
PROGD TO BE DRAPED ACROSS E AND S TX MONDAY THROUGH TUE WHICH WILL
PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE E CWA AND MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED. FELT THAT THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
WAS TOO HIGH ON POPS MON-WED TIMEFRAME BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ALSO BY WED...THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS E PLACING
MORE OF THE CWA UNDER THE SUBSIDENT WEST SIDE OF THE TROF.
THEREFORE...WENT LOWER ON POPS THAN THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BUT KEPT
20-40 PERCENT WITH THE 40 OVER THE WATERS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  91  75  94  75  /   0  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          70  91  73  93  73  /   0  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            73  98  76 100  77  /   0  10  10  10  10
ALICE             69  95  72  97  73  /   0  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          76  88  78  89  78  /   0  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           70  96  72  98  73  /   0  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        71  94  74  95  74  /   0  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  87  78  90  79  /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 292353 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
653 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AS OF WRITING. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT
CRP-ALI-VCT BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BECOMING
VFR BY THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING E-SE
10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

NOTE TO USERS OF LRD AWSS...THE SITE APPEARS TO BE REPORTING
ERRONEOUS CLOUD COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR TRENDS
AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN TX.
CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH N-S AXIS OVER ERN/SRN TX SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. DESPITE INCREASING UPPER FORCING AND DECREASING
CIN/SIGNIFICANT CAPE SUNDAY...EXPECT MSTR LIMITATIONS TO PRECLUDE
CONVECTION. YET...ANTICIPATE THAT SLIGHTLY GREATER PWAT VALUES/LOW
CIN VALUES (NAM DETERMINISTIC) AND UPPER FORCING WL CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES SUNDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 100F. GENERALLY LGT
ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
PROGD TO BE DRAPED ACROSS E AND S TX MONDAY THROUGH TUE WHICH WILL
PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE E CWA AND MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED. FELT THAT THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
WAS TOO HIGH ON POPS MON-WED TIMEFRAME BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ALSO BY WED...THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS E PLACING
MORE OF THE CWA UNDER THE SUBSIDENT WEST SIDE OF THE TROF.
THEREFORE...WENT LOWER ON POPS THAN THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BUT KEPT
20-40 PERCENT WITH THE 40 OVER THE WATERS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  91  75  94  75  /   0  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          70  91  73  93  73  /   0  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            73  98  76 100  77  /   0  10  10  10  10
ALICE             69  95  72  97  73  /   0  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          76  88  78  89  78  /   0  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           70  96  72  98  73  /   0  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        71  94  74  95  74  /   0  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  87  78  90  79  /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 292353 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
653 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AS OF WRITING. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT
CRP-ALI-VCT BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BECOMING
VFR BY THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING E-SE
10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

NOTE TO USERS OF LRD AWSS...THE SITE APPEARS TO BE REPORTING
ERRONEOUS CLOUD COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR TRENDS
AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN TX.
CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH N-S AXIS OVER ERN/SRN TX SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. DESPITE INCREASING UPPER FORCING AND DECREASING
CIN/SIGNIFICANT CAPE SUNDAY...EXPECT MSTR LIMITATIONS TO PRECLUDE
CONVECTION. YET...ANTICIPATE THAT SLIGHTLY GREATER PWAT VALUES/LOW
CIN VALUES (NAM DETERMINISTIC) AND UPPER FORCING WL CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES SUNDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 100F. GENERALLY LGT
ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
PROGD TO BE DRAPED ACROSS E AND S TX MONDAY THROUGH TUE WHICH WILL
PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE E CWA AND MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED. FELT THAT THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
WAS TOO HIGH ON POPS MON-WED TIMEFRAME BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ALSO BY WED...THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS E PLACING
MORE OF THE CWA UNDER THE SUBSIDENT WEST SIDE OF THE TROF.
THEREFORE...WENT LOWER ON POPS THAN THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BUT KEPT
20-40 PERCENT WITH THE 40 OVER THE WATERS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  91  75  94  75  /   0  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          70  91  73  93  73  /   0  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            73  98  76 100  77  /   0  10  10  10  10
ALICE             69  95  72  97  73  /   0  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          76  88  78  89  78  /   0  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           70  96  72  98  73  /   0  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        71  94  74  95  74  /   0  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  87  78  90  79  /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 292353 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
653 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AS OF WRITING. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT
CRP-ALI-VCT BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BECOMING
VFR BY THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING E-SE
10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

NOTE TO USERS OF LRD AWSS...THE SITE APPEARS TO BE REPORTING
ERRONEOUS CLOUD COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR TRENDS
AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN TX.
CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH N-S AXIS OVER ERN/SRN TX SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. DESPITE INCREASING UPPER FORCING AND DECREASING
CIN/SIGNIFICANT CAPE SUNDAY...EXPECT MSTR LIMITATIONS TO PRECLUDE
CONVECTION. YET...ANTICIPATE THAT SLIGHTLY GREATER PWAT VALUES/LOW
CIN VALUES (NAM DETERMINISTIC) AND UPPER FORCING WL CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES SUNDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 100F. GENERALLY LGT
ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
PROGD TO BE DRAPED ACROSS E AND S TX MONDAY THROUGH TUE WHICH WILL
PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE E CWA AND MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED. FELT THAT THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
WAS TOO HIGH ON POPS MON-WED TIMEFRAME BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ALSO BY WED...THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS E PLACING
MORE OF THE CWA UNDER THE SUBSIDENT WEST SIDE OF THE TROF.
THEREFORE...WENT LOWER ON POPS THAN THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BUT KEPT
20-40 PERCENT WITH THE 40 OVER THE WATERS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  91  75  94  75  /   0  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          70  91  73  93  73  /   0  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            73  98  76 100  77  /   0  10  10  10  10
ALICE             69  95  72  97  73  /   0  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          76  88  78  89  78  /   0  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           70  96  72  98  73  /   0  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        71  94  74  95  74  /   0  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  87  78  90  79  /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION




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