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000
FXUS64 KCRP 012146
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM
FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WITH A SHALLOW DENSE AIRMASS PERSISTING
OVER S TX. COASTAL TROUGH IS PROG TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WITH MODEST WAA OCCURRING JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN CONTINUED THICK STRATUS...LIGHT
PRECIP...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT FALL MUCH AND WITH THE NEAR SURFACE COLUMN ALREADY NEARLY
SATURATED...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED
TO GO WITH A NAM/SREF BLEND FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD
REGARDING TEMPS. THICK CLOUD COVER IS PROG TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK WAA IS MAINTAINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LITTLE RISE
IN TEMPS. WAA STRENGTHENS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE KICKS OUT
OF THE ROCKIES...WITH STRATUS BEING MAINTAINED.

RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS SWELL HEIGHTS AND PERIODS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...HEADACHE-INDUCING FORECAST FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIAL CONCERNS ARE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
VERY SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. MODELS...ESPECIALLY
GFS...HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY POOR IN HANDLING THIS ENVIRONMENT. LOW
CLOUDS...INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...FOG...AND COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WELL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AM TRENDING CLOSER TO NAM
SOLUTION FOR POSITIONING AND AS A RESULT AM CLOSER TO NAM NUMERICAL
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY NOT EVEN GET
THAT WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IS A BROAD SWEEPING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TIMING HERE VARIES IN A
SIMILAR MANNER...WITH GFS FASTEST AND NAM SLOWEST...WITH ECM AND CMC
IN BETWEEN. FOR CONSISTENCY WILL AIM MORE TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION
HERE AS WELL...WITH AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FROPAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND
QUICKLY INCREASE. MARINE HEADLINES WILL ALMOST ASSUREDLY BE NEEDED
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY ON THURSDAY...AND
PROBABLY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FURTHER OFFSHORE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR
THUNDER RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WOULD BE UNWISE TO RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED STRIKES.

BEHIND THE FRONT MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE STRONGLY...WITH GFS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AND ECM MORE OR LESS
REPEATING THIS WEEKENDS SCENARIO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH COASTAL
LOW/WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT AND FOG FORMATION. FAR TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT TO PICK A WINNER SO WILL EDGE TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. IN
EITHER CASE LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS CLOUDY...DAMP AND GRAY WITH AT
LEAST INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH VERY GRADUAL WARMING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...IT HAS BEEN A NICE WARM DAY ACROSS THE WATERS ONCE YOU
GET BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE. CLOSER TO SHORE...DAMP AND FOGGY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PREVAILING TODAY. FOG HAS MIXED OUT SOME
ACROSS AREA BAYS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING.
THUS...THE DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT THIS
TIME. FOG IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF
MONDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO
MODERATE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  56  52  71  63  /  20  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          45  53  50  71  61  /  20  20  10  20  20
LAREDO            48  55  50  80  61  /  10  20  10  10  10
ALICE             47  54  50  75  62  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          49  56  52  67  62  /  20  20  10  10  20
COTULLA           46  52  46  78  60  /  20  20  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        48  56  51  74  63  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  56  52  67  63  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 012146
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM
FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WITH A SHALLOW DENSE AIRMASS PERSISTING
OVER S TX. COASTAL TROUGH IS PROG TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WITH MODEST WAA OCCURRING JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN CONTINUED THICK STRATUS...LIGHT
PRECIP...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT FALL MUCH AND WITH THE NEAR SURFACE COLUMN ALREADY NEARLY
SATURATED...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED
TO GO WITH A NAM/SREF BLEND FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD
REGARDING TEMPS. THICK CLOUD COVER IS PROG TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK WAA IS MAINTAINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LITTLE RISE
IN TEMPS. WAA STRENGTHENS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE KICKS OUT
OF THE ROCKIES...WITH STRATUS BEING MAINTAINED.

RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS SWELL HEIGHTS AND PERIODS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...HEADACHE-INDUCING FORECAST FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIAL CONCERNS ARE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
VERY SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. MODELS...ESPECIALLY
GFS...HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY POOR IN HANDLING THIS ENVIRONMENT. LOW
CLOUDS...INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...FOG...AND COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WELL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AM TRENDING CLOSER TO NAM
SOLUTION FOR POSITIONING AND AS A RESULT AM CLOSER TO NAM NUMERICAL
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY NOT EVEN GET
THAT WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IS A BROAD SWEEPING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TIMING HERE VARIES IN A
SIMILAR MANNER...WITH GFS FASTEST AND NAM SLOWEST...WITH ECM AND CMC
IN BETWEEN. FOR CONSISTENCY WILL AIM MORE TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION
HERE AS WELL...WITH AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FROPAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND
QUICKLY INCREASE. MARINE HEADLINES WILL ALMOST ASSUREDLY BE NEEDED
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY ON THURSDAY...AND
PROBABLY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FURTHER OFFSHORE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR
THUNDER RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WOULD BE UNWISE TO RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED STRIKES.

BEHIND THE FRONT MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE STRONGLY...WITH GFS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AND ECM MORE OR LESS
REPEATING THIS WEEKENDS SCENARIO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH COASTAL
LOW/WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT AND FOG FORMATION. FAR TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT TO PICK A WINNER SO WILL EDGE TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. IN
EITHER CASE LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS CLOUDY...DAMP AND GRAY WITH AT
LEAST INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH VERY GRADUAL WARMING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...IT HAS BEEN A NICE WARM DAY ACROSS THE WATERS ONCE YOU
GET BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE. CLOSER TO SHORE...DAMP AND FOGGY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PREVAILING TODAY. FOG HAS MIXED OUT SOME
ACROSS AREA BAYS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING.
THUS...THE DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT THIS
TIME. FOG IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF
MONDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO
MODERATE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  56  52  71  63  /  20  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          45  53  50  71  61  /  20  20  10  20  20
LAREDO            48  55  50  80  61  /  10  20  10  10  10
ALICE             47  54  50  75  62  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          49  56  52  67  62  /  20  20  10  10  20
COTULLA           46  52  46  78  60  /  20  20  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        48  56  51  74  63  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  56  52  67  63  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 011820 AAE
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1220 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...EXTENDED MARINE FOG ADV INTO THIS EVENING AND DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...AND ARANSAS COUNTIES
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE...MAINTAINING NEARLY
SATURATED NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT CHANCES WILL BE
MADE THIS AFTERNOON TO MONDAY/S FORECAST WITH DETAILS FORTHCOMING
IN MAIN AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  64  63  76  65  /  20  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          51  61  60  76  63  /  20  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            52  67  63  85  63  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             53  66  63  80  64  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  63  63  72  64  /  20  20  10  10  20
COTULLA           48  60  59  83  62  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        54  66  63  79  65  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       55  62  62  72  65  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011731 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1131 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDDAY TO
EXTEND CURRENT FOG ADVISORIES. 18Z AVIATION BRIEFING BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUATION OF POOR FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HRS.
OVERALL...ALL TERMINALS SET TO EXPERIENCE PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS DRNG THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF FLUCTUATIONS
INTO IFR POSSIBLE. EXCEPTION IS AT KLRD WHERE A SMALL WINDOW OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN. S TX VSBY FCST IS TRICKY
BUT GENERALLY VSBYS OF LESS THAN 3 SM LIKELY THRU MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD /KLRD MAY HAVE MVFR TO VFR VSBYS AT TIMES LATE AFTN/. VLIFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KCRP THIS AFTN. NRLY WINDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD 5
TO 10 KNOTS. AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS AFTN FOR PRIMARILY VSBYS. HIGH
CHANCE OF MANY AIRFIELDS FALLING BELOW MINIMUM LANDING CRITERIA AT
TIME DRNG THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          52  51  61  60  76  /  30  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            58  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             54  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  54  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           53  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        55  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       55  55  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS
     AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 011731 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1131 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDDAY TO
EXTEND CURRENT FOG ADVISORIES. 18Z AVIATION BRIEFING BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUATION OF POOR FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HRS.
OVERALL...ALL TERMINALS SET TO EXPERIENCE PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS DRNG THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF FLUCTUATIONS
INTO IFR POSSIBLE. EXCEPTION IS AT KLRD WHERE A SMALL WINDOW OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN. S TX VSBY FCST IS TRICKY
BUT GENERALLY VSBYS OF LESS THAN 3 SM LIKELY THRU MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD /KLRD MAY HAVE MVFR TO VFR VSBYS AT TIMES LATE AFTN/. VLIFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KCRP THIS AFTN. NRLY WINDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD 5
TO 10 KNOTS. AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS AFTN FOR PRIMARILY VSBYS. HIGH
CHANCE OF MANY AIRFIELDS FALLING BELOW MINIMUM LANDING CRITERIA AT
TIME DRNG THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          52  51  61  60  76  /  30  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            58  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             54  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  54  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           53  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        55  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       55  55  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS
     AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 011731 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1131 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDDAY TO
EXTEND CURRENT FOG ADVISORIES. 18Z AVIATION BRIEFING BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUATION OF POOR FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HRS.
OVERALL...ALL TERMINALS SET TO EXPERIENCE PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS DRNG THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF FLUCTUATIONS
INTO IFR POSSIBLE. EXCEPTION IS AT KLRD WHERE A SMALL WINDOW OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN. S TX VSBY FCST IS TRICKY
BUT GENERALLY VSBYS OF LESS THAN 3 SM LIKELY THRU MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD /KLRD MAY HAVE MVFR TO VFR VSBYS AT TIMES LATE AFTN/. VLIFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KCRP THIS AFTN. NRLY WINDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD 5
TO 10 KNOTS. AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS AFTN FOR PRIMARILY VSBYS. HIGH
CHANCE OF MANY AIRFIELDS FALLING BELOW MINIMUM LANDING CRITERIA AT
TIME DRNG THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          52  51  61  60  76  /  30  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            58  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             54  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  54  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           53  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        55  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       55  55  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS
     AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION









000
FXUS64 KCRP 011730 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1130 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDDAY TO
EXTENDED CURRENT FOG ADVISORIES. 18Z AVIATION BRIEFING BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUATION OF POOR FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HRS.
OVERALL...ALL TERMINALS SET TO EXPERIENCE PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS DRNG THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF FLUCTUATIONS
INTO IFR POSSIBLE. EXCEPTION IS AT KLRD WHERE A SMALL WINDOW OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN. S TX VSBY FCST IS TRICKY
BUT GENERALLY VSBYS OF LESS THAN 3 SM LIKELY THRU MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD /KLRD MAY HAVE MVFR TO VFR VSBYS AT TIMES LATE AFTN/. VLIFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KCRP THIS AFTN. NRLY WINDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD 5
TO 10 KNOTS. AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS AFTN FOR PRIMARILY VSBYS. HIGH
CHANCE OF MANY AIRFIELDS FALLING BELOW MINIMUM LANDING CRITERIA AT
TIME DRNG THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          52  51  61  60  76  /  30  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            58  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             54  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  54  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           53  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        55  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       55  55  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS
     AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 011730 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1130 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDDAY TO
EXTENDED CURRENT FOG ADVISORIES. 18Z AVIATION BRIEFING BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUATION OF POOR FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HRS.
OVERALL...ALL TERMINALS SET TO EXPERIENCE PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS DRNG THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF FLUCTUATIONS
INTO IFR POSSIBLE. EXCEPTION IS AT KLRD WHERE A SMALL WINDOW OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN. S TX VSBY FCST IS TRICKY
BUT GENERALLY VSBYS OF LESS THAN 3 SM LIKELY THRU MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD /KLRD MAY HAVE MVFR TO VFR VSBYS AT TIMES LATE AFTN/. VLIFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KCRP THIS AFTN. NRLY WINDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD 5
TO 10 KNOTS. AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS AFTN FOR PRIMARILY VSBYS. HIGH
CHANCE OF MANY AIRFIELDS FALLING BELOW MINIMUM LANDING CRITERIA AT
TIME DRNG THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          52  51  61  60  76  /  30  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            58  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             54  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  54  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           53  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        55  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       55  55  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS
     AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 011601 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1001 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL BEND UNTIL MIDDAY. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
NUECES/SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES AND IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD...AND
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. WILL READDRESS FOG
SITUATION AT MIDDAY FOR AN EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          52  51  61  60  76  /  30  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            58  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             54  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  54  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           53  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        55  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       55  55  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS
     AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 011601 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1001 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL BEND UNTIL MIDDAY. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
NUECES/SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES AND IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD...AND
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. WILL READDRESS FOG
SITUATION AT MIDDAY FOR AN EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          52  51  61  60  76  /  30  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            58  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             54  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  54  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           53  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        55  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       55  55  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS
     AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011531 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
931 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...THICK STRATUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW RISE IN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AM A
LITTLE LEERY OF GOING TOO MUCH COLDER AS THERE COULD BE SOME
THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE DAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
COUNTIES/. AREAS OF FOG ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY /ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA/...WITH ONLY A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES.

HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES.
LONG PERIOD SWELL AND SWELL HEIGHTS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...BUT
THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IF SWELL SUBSIDES
FASTER...MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE RIP CURRENT ADVISORY EARLY.

ADDITIONAL UPDATES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BAYS/NEARSHORE
WATERS UNTIL MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON /AND POSSIBLY INTO OFFSHORE WATERS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          52  51  61  60  76  /  30  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            58  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             54  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  54  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           53  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        55  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       55  55  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS
     AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 011531 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
931 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...THICK STRATUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW RISE IN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AM A
LITTLE LEERY OF GOING TOO MUCH COLDER AS THERE COULD BE SOME
THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE DAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
COUNTIES/. AREAS OF FOG ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY /ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA/...WITH ONLY A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES.

HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES.
LONG PERIOD SWELL AND SWELL HEIGHTS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...BUT
THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IF SWELL SUBSIDES
FASTER...MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE RIP CURRENT ADVISORY EARLY.

ADDITIONAL UPDATES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BAYS/NEARSHORE
WATERS UNTIL MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON /AND POSSIBLY INTO OFFSHORE WATERS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          52  51  61  60  76  /  30  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            58  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             54  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  54  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           53  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        55  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       55  55  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS
     AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011531 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
931 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...THICK STRATUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW RISE IN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AM A
LITTLE LEERY OF GOING TOO MUCH COLDER AS THERE COULD BE SOME
THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE DAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
COUNTIES/. AREAS OF FOG ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY /ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA/...WITH ONLY A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES.

HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES.
LONG PERIOD SWELL AND SWELL HEIGHTS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...BUT
THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IF SWELL SUBSIDES
FASTER...MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE RIP CURRENT ADVISORY EARLY.

ADDITIONAL UPDATES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BAYS/NEARSHORE
WATERS UNTIL MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON /AND POSSIBLY INTO OFFSHORE WATERS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          52  51  61  60  76  /  30  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            58  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             54  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  54  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           53  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        55  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       55  55  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS
     AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 011137 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
537 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL AT THE
SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MVFR CIGS RETURN AT LRD...ONLY FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN THIS EVENING. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST COMMON AT ALI/CRP/VCT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE OUT OF THE N AND NE THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE SOURCE OF DREARY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE PERSIST RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES ON
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES OVER THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. THE ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH 15Z BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF FOG IS SLOWER
TO DISSIPATE. MODELS INDICATE COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE TODAY KEEPING NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SERVE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HAVE UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS BUT DID
NOT GO QUITE AS COOL AS METMOS TEMPS. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COOLER AIR.
THE WARMUP THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY WILL NOT LIKELY
HAPPEN AS N TO NE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA. INSTEAD OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH
AGAIN TODAY AS INCREASED EASTERLY SWELLS LINGER. LASTLY...THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 7 FEET.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AT THE ONSET OF
LONGTERM PERIOD...COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INLAND...DRYING US
OUT SOMEWHAT. WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE NORTH
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH COASTAL TROUGH
MOVING...THINK WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS A BIT
FUZZY...BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
THIS MAKES TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALSO VERY DIFFICULT. A
LATER FRONT TIMING WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE REACHED. FOR NOW GOING WITH
A MIDDLE GROUND FRONT TIMING WITH MID AFTERNOON. GFS MODEL IS
FASTEST WITH FRONT TIMING...BISECTING THE AREA BY 18Z. ECMWF CLOSER
TO 00-01Z TO GET THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...THOUGH CAPE IS LIMITED. ALSO WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES SOME MODERATE RAINS COULD OCCUR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL
THEN KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK COULD
SEE ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN ZONES. EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE THE
SUN ALL WEEK.

THE STRONG FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS FROM THE 80S ON TUESDAY TO HIGHS IN
THE 40S ON THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT ONLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT LIKELY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...BUT NO FREEZE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...AND NO WINTER PRECIP TYPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          61  51  61  60  76  /  40  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            61  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             60  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          62  55  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           58  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        61  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  56  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 011137 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
537 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL AT THE
SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MVFR CIGS RETURN AT LRD...ONLY FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN THIS EVENING. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST COMMON AT ALI/CRP/VCT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE OUT OF THE N AND NE THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE SOURCE OF DREARY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE PERSIST RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES ON
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES OVER THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. THE ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH 15Z BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF FOG IS SLOWER
TO DISSIPATE. MODELS INDICATE COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE TODAY KEEPING NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SERVE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HAVE UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS BUT DID
NOT GO QUITE AS COOL AS METMOS TEMPS. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COOLER AIR.
THE WARMUP THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY WILL NOT LIKELY
HAPPEN AS N TO NE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA. INSTEAD OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH
AGAIN TODAY AS INCREASED EASTERLY SWELLS LINGER. LASTLY...THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 7 FEET.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AT THE ONSET OF
LONGTERM PERIOD...COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INLAND...DRYING US
OUT SOMEWHAT. WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE NORTH
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH COASTAL TROUGH
MOVING...THINK WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS A BIT
FUZZY...BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
THIS MAKES TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALSO VERY DIFFICULT. A
LATER FRONT TIMING WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE REACHED. FOR NOW GOING WITH
A MIDDLE GROUND FRONT TIMING WITH MID AFTERNOON. GFS MODEL IS
FASTEST WITH FRONT TIMING...BISECTING THE AREA BY 18Z. ECMWF CLOSER
TO 00-01Z TO GET THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...THOUGH CAPE IS LIMITED. ALSO WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES SOME MODERATE RAINS COULD OCCUR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL
THEN KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK COULD
SEE ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN ZONES. EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE THE
SUN ALL WEEK.

THE STRONG FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS FROM THE 80S ON TUESDAY TO HIGHS IN
THE 40S ON THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT ONLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT LIKELY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...BUT NO FREEZE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...AND NO WINTER PRECIP TYPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          61  51  61  60  76  /  40  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            61  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             60  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          62  55  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           58  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        61  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  56  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 011023
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE SOURCE OF DREARY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE PERSIST RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES ON
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES OVER THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. THE ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH 15Z BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF FOG IS SLOWER
TO DISSIPATE. MODELS INDICATE COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE TODAY KEEPING NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SERVE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HAVE UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS BUT DID
NOT GO QUITE AS COOL AS METMOS TEMPS. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COOLER AIR.
THE WARMUP THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY WILL NOT LIKELY
HAPPEN AS N TO NE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA. INSTEAD OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH
AGAIN TODAY AS INCREASED EASTERLY SWELLS LINGER. LASTLY...THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 7 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AT THE ONSET OF
LONGTERM PERIOD...COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INLAND...DRYING US
OUT SOMEWHAT. WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE NORTH
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH COASTAL TROUGH
MOVING...THINK WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS A BIT
FUZZY...BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
THIS MAKES TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALSO VERY DIFFICULT. A
LATER FRONT TIMING WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE REACHED. FOR NOW GOING WITH
A MIDDLE GROUND FRONT TIMING WITH MID AFTERNOON. GFS MODEL IS
FASTEST WITH FRONT TIMING...BISECTING THE AREA BY 18Z. ECMWF CLOSER
TO 00-01Z TO GET THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...THOUGH CAPE IS LIMITED. ALSO WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES SOME MODERATE RAINS COULD OCCUR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL
THEN KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK COULD
SEE ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN ZONES. EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE THE
SUN ALL WEEK.

THE STRONG FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS FROM THE 80S ON TUESDAY TO HIGHS IN
THE 40S ON THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT ONLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT LIKELY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...BUT NO FREEZE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...AND NO WINTER PRECIP TYPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          61  51  61  60  76  /  40  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            61  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             60  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          62  55  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           58  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        61  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  56  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 011023
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE SOURCE OF DREARY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE PERSIST RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES ON
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES OVER THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. THE ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH 15Z BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF FOG IS SLOWER
TO DISSIPATE. MODELS INDICATE COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE TODAY KEEPING NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SERVE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HAVE UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS BUT DID
NOT GO QUITE AS COOL AS METMOS TEMPS. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COOLER AIR.
THE WARMUP THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY WILL NOT LIKELY
HAPPEN AS N TO NE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA. INSTEAD OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH
AGAIN TODAY AS INCREASED EASTERLY SWELLS LINGER. LASTLY...THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 7 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AT THE ONSET OF
LONGTERM PERIOD...COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INLAND...DRYING US
OUT SOMEWHAT. WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE NORTH
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH COASTAL TROUGH
MOVING...THINK WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS A BIT
FUZZY...BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
THIS MAKES TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALSO VERY DIFFICULT. A
LATER FRONT TIMING WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE REACHED. FOR NOW GOING WITH
A MIDDLE GROUND FRONT TIMING WITH MID AFTERNOON. GFS MODEL IS
FASTEST WITH FRONT TIMING...BISECTING THE AREA BY 18Z. ECMWF CLOSER
TO 00-01Z TO GET THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...THOUGH CAPE IS LIMITED. ALSO WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES SOME MODERATE RAINS COULD OCCUR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL
THEN KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK COULD
SEE ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN ZONES. EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE THE
SUN ALL WEEK.

THE STRONG FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS FROM THE 80S ON TUESDAY TO HIGHS IN
THE 40S ON THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT ONLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT LIKELY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...BUT NO FREEZE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...AND NO WINTER PRECIP TYPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          61  51  61  60  76  /  40  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            61  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             60  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          62  55  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           58  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        61  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  56  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 011023
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE SOURCE OF DREARY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE PERSIST RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES ON
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES OVER THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. THE ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH 15Z BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF FOG IS SLOWER
TO DISSIPATE. MODELS INDICATE COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE TODAY KEEPING NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SERVE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HAVE UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS BUT DID
NOT GO QUITE AS COOL AS METMOS TEMPS. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COOLER AIR.
THE WARMUP THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY WILL NOT LIKELY
HAPPEN AS N TO NE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA. INSTEAD OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH
AGAIN TODAY AS INCREASED EASTERLY SWELLS LINGER. LASTLY...THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 7 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AT THE ONSET OF
LONGTERM PERIOD...COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INLAND...DRYING US
OUT SOMEWHAT. WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE NORTH
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH COASTAL TROUGH
MOVING...THINK WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS A BIT
FUZZY...BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
THIS MAKES TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALSO VERY DIFFICULT. A
LATER FRONT TIMING WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE REACHED. FOR NOW GOING WITH
A MIDDLE GROUND FRONT TIMING WITH MID AFTERNOON. GFS MODEL IS
FASTEST WITH FRONT TIMING...BISECTING THE AREA BY 18Z. ECMWF CLOSER
TO 00-01Z TO GET THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...THOUGH CAPE IS LIMITED. ALSO WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES SOME MODERATE RAINS COULD OCCUR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL
THEN KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK COULD
SEE ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN ZONES. EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE THE
SUN ALL WEEK.

THE STRONG FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS FROM THE 80S ON TUESDAY TO HIGHS IN
THE 40S ON THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT ONLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT LIKELY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...BUT NO FREEZE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...AND NO WINTER PRECIP TYPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          61  51  61  60  76  /  40  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            61  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             60  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          62  55  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           58  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        61  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  56  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 011023
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE SOURCE OF DREARY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE PERSIST RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES ON
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES OVER THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. THE ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH 15Z BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF FOG IS SLOWER
TO DISSIPATE. MODELS INDICATE COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE TODAY KEEPING NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SERVE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HAVE UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS BUT DID
NOT GO QUITE AS COOL AS METMOS TEMPS. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COOLER AIR.
THE WARMUP THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY WILL NOT LIKELY
HAPPEN AS N TO NE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA. INSTEAD OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH
AGAIN TODAY AS INCREASED EASTERLY SWELLS LINGER. LASTLY...THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 7 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AT THE ONSET OF
LONGTERM PERIOD...COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INLAND...DRYING US
OUT SOMEWHAT. WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE NORTH
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH COASTAL TROUGH
MOVING...THINK WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS A BIT
FUZZY...BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
THIS MAKES TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALSO VERY DIFFICULT. A
LATER FRONT TIMING WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE REACHED. FOR NOW GOING WITH
A MIDDLE GROUND FRONT TIMING WITH MID AFTERNOON. GFS MODEL IS
FASTEST WITH FRONT TIMING...BISECTING THE AREA BY 18Z. ECMWF CLOSER
TO 00-01Z TO GET THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...THOUGH CAPE IS LIMITED. ALSO WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES SOME MODERATE RAINS COULD OCCUR. OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL
THEN KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK COULD
SEE ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN ZONES. EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE THE
SUN ALL WEEK.

THE STRONG FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS FROM THE 80S ON TUESDAY TO HIGHS IN
THE 40S ON THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT ONLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT LIKELY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...BUT NO FREEZE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...AND NO WINTER PRECIP TYPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  54  64  63  76  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          61  51  61  60  76  /  40  20  30  20  20
LAREDO            61  52  67  63  85  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             60  53  66  63  80  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          62  55  63  63  72  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           58  48  60  59  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        61  54  66  63  79  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  56  62  62  72  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 010448
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1048 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT RESULT WL BE
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT. ALSO...A THICK STRATUS DECK WITH
AREAS OF FOG WL PERSIST. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
AND REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE IFR RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SUNDAY
BEFORE LOWERING DOWN AGAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED SATURATED WARM AIR ADVECTION
LAYER ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS UP TO 10 KFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 290-300K LAYER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL TRICKY ON
WHERE COASTAL TROUGH...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE MATAGORDA
BAY AREA...WILL MOVE TONIGHT IF AT ALL. STILL PREFER 18Z NAM/15Z SREF
WITH REGARDS TO COLD AIR HOLDING THIS EVENING AND PUSHING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

MARINE...SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS BUOYS INDICATED
ELEVATED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FEET REMAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE TAF FCST PD FOR SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR THROUGH SUNDAY...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT AND PRODUCING/MAINTAINING A THICK
STRATUS DECK. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THIS SETUP. A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LRD AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  60  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  70  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  20  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  60  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 010448
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1048 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT RESULT WL BE
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT. ALSO...A THICK STRATUS DECK WITH
AREAS OF FOG WL PERSIST. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
AND REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE IFR RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SUNDAY
BEFORE LOWERING DOWN AGAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED SATURATED WARM AIR ADVECTION
LAYER ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS UP TO 10 KFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 290-300K LAYER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL TRICKY ON
WHERE COASTAL TROUGH...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE MATAGORDA
BAY AREA...WILL MOVE TONIGHT IF AT ALL. STILL PREFER 18Z NAM/15Z SREF
WITH REGARDS TO COLD AIR HOLDING THIS EVENING AND PUSHING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

MARINE...SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS BUOYS INDICATED
ELEVATED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FEET REMAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE TAF FCST PD FOR SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR THROUGH SUNDAY...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT AND PRODUCING/MAINTAINING A THICK
STRATUS DECK. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THIS SETUP. A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LRD AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  60  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  70  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  20  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  60  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 010104 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
704 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED SATURATED WARM AIR ADVECTION
LAYER ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS UP TO 10 KFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 290-300K LAYER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL TRICKY ON
WHERE COASTAL TROUGH...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE MATAGORDA
BAY AREA...WILL MOVE TONIGHT IF AT ALL. STILL PREFER 18Z NAM/15Z SREF
WITH REGARDS TO COLD AIR HOLDING THIS EVENING AND PUSHING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS BUOYS INDICATED
ELEVATED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FEET REMAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE TAF FCST PD FOR SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR THROUGH SUNDAY...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT AND PRODUCING/MAINTAINING A THICK
STRATUS DECK. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THIS SETUP. A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LRD AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  60  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  70  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  20  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  60  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 010104 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
704 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED SATURATED WARM AIR ADVECTION
LAYER ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS UP TO 10 KFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 290-300K LAYER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL TRICKY ON
WHERE COASTAL TROUGH...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE MATAGORDA
BAY AREA...WILL MOVE TONIGHT IF AT ALL. STILL PREFER 18Z NAM/15Z SREF
WITH REGARDS TO COLD AIR HOLDING THIS EVENING AND PUSHING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS BUOYS INDICATED
ELEVATED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FEET REMAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE TAF FCST PD FOR SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR THROUGH SUNDAY...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT AND PRODUCING/MAINTAINING A THICK
STRATUS DECK. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THIS SETUP. A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LRD AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  60  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  70  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  20  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  60  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TT/89...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 010104 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
704 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED SATURATED WARM AIR ADVECTION
LAYER ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS UP TO 10 KFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 290-300K LAYER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL TRICKY ON
WHERE COASTAL TROUGH...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE MATAGORDA
BAY AREA...WILL MOVE TONIGHT IF AT ALL. STILL PREFER 18Z NAM/15Z SREF
WITH REGARDS TO COLD AIR HOLDING THIS EVENING AND PUSHING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS BUOYS INDICATED
ELEVATED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FEET REMAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE TAF FCST PD FOR SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR THROUGH SUNDAY...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT AND PRODUCING/MAINTAINING A THICK
STRATUS DECK. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THIS SETUP. A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LRD AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  60  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  70  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  20  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  60  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 010104 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
704 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED SATURATED WARM AIR ADVECTION
LAYER ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS UP TO 10 KFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 290-300K LAYER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL TRICKY ON
WHERE COASTAL TROUGH...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE MATAGORDA
BAY AREA...WILL MOVE TONIGHT IF AT ALL. STILL PREFER 18Z NAM/15Z SREF
WITH REGARDS TO COLD AIR HOLDING THIS EVENING AND PUSHING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS BUOYS INDICATED
ELEVATED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FEET REMAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE TAF FCST PD FOR SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR THROUGH SUNDAY...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT AND PRODUCING/MAINTAINING A THICK
STRATUS DECK. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THIS SETUP. A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LRD AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  60  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  70  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  20  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  60  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TT/89...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 282322
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
522 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE TAF FCST PD FOR SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR THROUGH SUNDAY...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT AND PRODUCING/MAINTAINING A THICK
STRATUS DECK. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THIS SETUP. A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LRD AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MSAS ANALYSIS AND
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF PORT ARANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A MARITIME AIRMASS IS
BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WITH WARMER AND MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS LOCATED FROM VICTORIA SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MID AND
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. FARTHER INLAND...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A THICK INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH TONIGHT GIVEN THICK CLOUD DECK AND EXPECTED
LITTLE CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LITTLE VARIATIONS
IN COASTAL LOW/TROUGH WILL IMPACT TEMPS...IE IF TROUGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THEN MIN TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST VALUES...AND A LITTLE LOWER IF TROUGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. WAA WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH A SE FLOW AT
925MB AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROG TO BE OVER NE ZONES. THUS...I HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NE AND DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SW.
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH GFS/ECMWF WANTING
TO SHIFT THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH INLAND OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WHILE THE NAM SHIFTS IT EAST. THIS CREATES A BIG HEADACHE
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE DETERMINISTIC NAM GIVES S TX
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AROUND 50 WHILE THE GFS WARMS US INTO THE 70S.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...I HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A NAM/SREF/TTU WRF
BLEND REGARDING POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH DUE TO BETTER
MODEL RESOLUTION...AND GIVE S TX HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS WAA WEAKENS. WITH TROUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...I HAVE ALSO GONE ON THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
LOWER LEVELS ARE NEARLY SATURATED. ALSO...RIP CURRENT RISK
CONTINUES ALONG MOST GULF FACING BEACHES AS STRONG EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION. THREAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AS SWELLS DECREASE IN INTENSITY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROG
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE CWA MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
EARLIER UPPER SYSTEM PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST.
ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FRONT WL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
TO GENERATE ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA SINCE
THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE NRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PROG/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A MEANDERING UPPER SYSTEM NEAR
THE WEST COAST MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. THIS
SYSTEM WL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
AREAS OF SEA FOG DRG THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE
BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS (SFC DEW POINT GREATER THAN SST VALUES PER
SPORT SST COMPOSITE) WHICH MAY ADVECT ACRS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS AND
ECMWF NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH TIMING.) THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT
AND UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST (INCLUDING CWA/MSA UNDER THE RRQ OF A STG UPPER JET
STREAK) IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA/MSA. CONTINUE TO EXPECT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AFTER
FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS
PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER
THE WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS (WARMER SST VALUES OVER OFFSHORE WATERS.) GFS PROGS
ISENTROPIC LIFT (300K LEVEL) THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. PATCHY LGT RAIN
MAY OCCUR THURSDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. PCPN TYPE...TOP-DOWN METHOD
APPLIED TO SELECTED 12Z THURSDAY/FRIDAY GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
LIMITED ICE CRYSTAL INITIALIZATION WOULD OCCUR. THE ALGORITHM BASED
ON 850-700MB/1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST THAT THE FREEZING
RAIN COULD OCCUR IF SFC TEMPS REACH FREEZING. YET...SFC TEMPS ARE
FCST TO FALL TO NO LOWER THAN MID 30S.

MARINE...WEAK COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL TROUGH PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY
TODAY BUT SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  30  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  60  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  30  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  30  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 282322
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
522 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE TAF FCST PD FOR SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR THROUGH SUNDAY...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT AND PRODUCING/MAINTAINING A THICK
STRATUS DECK. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THIS SETUP. A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LRD AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MSAS ANALYSIS AND
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF PORT ARANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A MARITIME AIRMASS IS
BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WITH WARMER AND MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS LOCATED FROM VICTORIA SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MID AND
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. FARTHER INLAND...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A THICK INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH TONIGHT GIVEN THICK CLOUD DECK AND EXPECTED
LITTLE CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LITTLE VARIATIONS
IN COASTAL LOW/TROUGH WILL IMPACT TEMPS...IE IF TROUGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THEN MIN TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST VALUES...AND A LITTLE LOWER IF TROUGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. WAA WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH A SE FLOW AT
925MB AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROG TO BE OVER NE ZONES. THUS...I HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NE AND DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SW.
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH GFS/ECMWF WANTING
TO SHIFT THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH INLAND OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WHILE THE NAM SHIFTS IT EAST. THIS CREATES A BIG HEADACHE
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE DETERMINISTIC NAM GIVES S TX
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AROUND 50 WHILE THE GFS WARMS US INTO THE 70S.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...I HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A NAM/SREF/TTU WRF
BLEND REGARDING POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH DUE TO BETTER
MODEL RESOLUTION...AND GIVE S TX HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS WAA WEAKENS. WITH TROUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...I HAVE ALSO GONE ON THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
LOWER LEVELS ARE NEARLY SATURATED. ALSO...RIP CURRENT RISK
CONTINUES ALONG MOST GULF FACING BEACHES AS STRONG EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION. THREAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AS SWELLS DECREASE IN INTENSITY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROG
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE CWA MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
EARLIER UPPER SYSTEM PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST.
ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FRONT WL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
TO GENERATE ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA SINCE
THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE NRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PROG/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A MEANDERING UPPER SYSTEM NEAR
THE WEST COAST MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. THIS
SYSTEM WL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
AREAS OF SEA FOG DRG THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE
BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS (SFC DEW POINT GREATER THAN SST VALUES PER
SPORT SST COMPOSITE) WHICH MAY ADVECT ACRS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS AND
ECMWF NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH TIMING.) THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT
AND UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST (INCLUDING CWA/MSA UNDER THE RRQ OF A STG UPPER JET
STREAK) IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA/MSA. CONTINUE TO EXPECT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AFTER
FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS
PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER
THE WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS (WARMER SST VALUES OVER OFFSHORE WATERS.) GFS PROGS
ISENTROPIC LIFT (300K LEVEL) THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. PATCHY LGT RAIN
MAY OCCUR THURSDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. PCPN TYPE...TOP-DOWN METHOD
APPLIED TO SELECTED 12Z THURSDAY/FRIDAY GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
LIMITED ICE CRYSTAL INITIALIZATION WOULD OCCUR. THE ALGORITHM BASED
ON 850-700MB/1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST THAT THE FREEZING
RAIN COULD OCCUR IF SFC TEMPS REACH FREEZING. YET...SFC TEMPS ARE
FCST TO FALL TO NO LOWER THAN MID 30S.

MARINE...WEAK COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL TROUGH PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY
TODAY BUT SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  30  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  60  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  30  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  30  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 282322
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
522 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE TAF FCST PD FOR SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR THROUGH SUNDAY...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT AND PRODUCING/MAINTAINING A THICK
STRATUS DECK. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THIS SETUP. A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LRD AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MSAS ANALYSIS AND
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF PORT ARANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A MARITIME AIRMASS IS
BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WITH WARMER AND MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS LOCATED FROM VICTORIA SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MID AND
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. FARTHER INLAND...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A THICK INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH TONIGHT GIVEN THICK CLOUD DECK AND EXPECTED
LITTLE CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LITTLE VARIATIONS
IN COASTAL LOW/TROUGH WILL IMPACT TEMPS...IE IF TROUGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THEN MIN TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST VALUES...AND A LITTLE LOWER IF TROUGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. WAA WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH A SE FLOW AT
925MB AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROG TO BE OVER NE ZONES. THUS...I HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NE AND DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SW.
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH GFS/ECMWF WANTING
TO SHIFT THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH INLAND OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WHILE THE NAM SHIFTS IT EAST. THIS CREATES A BIG HEADACHE
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE DETERMINISTIC NAM GIVES S TX
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AROUND 50 WHILE THE GFS WARMS US INTO THE 70S.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...I HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A NAM/SREF/TTU WRF
BLEND REGARDING POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH DUE TO BETTER
MODEL RESOLUTION...AND GIVE S TX HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS WAA WEAKENS. WITH TROUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...I HAVE ALSO GONE ON THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
LOWER LEVELS ARE NEARLY SATURATED. ALSO...RIP CURRENT RISK
CONTINUES ALONG MOST GULF FACING BEACHES AS STRONG EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION. THREAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AS SWELLS DECREASE IN INTENSITY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROG
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE CWA MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
EARLIER UPPER SYSTEM PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST.
ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FRONT WL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
TO GENERATE ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA SINCE
THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE NRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PROG/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A MEANDERING UPPER SYSTEM NEAR
THE WEST COAST MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. THIS
SYSTEM WL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
AREAS OF SEA FOG DRG THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE
BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS (SFC DEW POINT GREATER THAN SST VALUES PER
SPORT SST COMPOSITE) WHICH MAY ADVECT ACRS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS AND
ECMWF NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH TIMING.) THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT
AND UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST (INCLUDING CWA/MSA UNDER THE RRQ OF A STG UPPER JET
STREAK) IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA/MSA. CONTINUE TO EXPECT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AFTER
FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS
PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER
THE WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS (WARMER SST VALUES OVER OFFSHORE WATERS.) GFS PROGS
ISENTROPIC LIFT (300K LEVEL) THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. PATCHY LGT RAIN
MAY OCCUR THURSDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. PCPN TYPE...TOP-DOWN METHOD
APPLIED TO SELECTED 12Z THURSDAY/FRIDAY GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
LIMITED ICE CRYSTAL INITIALIZATION WOULD OCCUR. THE ALGORITHM BASED
ON 850-700MB/1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST THAT THE FREEZING
RAIN COULD OCCUR IF SFC TEMPS REACH FREEZING. YET...SFC TEMPS ARE
FCST TO FALL TO NO LOWER THAN MID 30S.

MARINE...WEAK COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL TROUGH PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY
TODAY BUT SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  30  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  60  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  30  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  30  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 282149
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MSAS ANALYSIS AND
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF PORT ARANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A MARITIME AIRMASS IS
BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WITH WARMER AND MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS LOCATED FROM VICTORIA SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MID AND
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. FARTHER INLAND...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A THICK INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH TONIGHT GIVEN THICK CLOUD DECK AND EXPECTED
LITTLE CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LITTLE VARIATIONS
IN COASTAL LOW/TROUGH WILL IMPACT TEMPS...IE IF TROUGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THEN MIN TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST VALUES...AND A LITTLE LOWER IF TROUGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. WAA WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH A SE FLOW AT
925MB AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROG TO BE OVER NE ZONES. THUS...I HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NE AND DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SW.
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH GFS/ECMWF WANTING
TO SHIFT THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH INLAND OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WHILE THE NAM SHIFTS IT EAST. THIS CREATES A BIG HEADACHE
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE DETERMINISTIC NAM GIVES S TX
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AROUND 50 WHILE THE GFS WARMS US INTO THE 70S.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...I HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A NAM/SREF/TTU WRF
BLEND REGARDING POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH DUE TO BETTER
MODEL RESOLUTION...AND GIVE S TX HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS WAA WEAKENS. WITH TROUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...I HAVE ALSO GONE ON THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
LOWER LEVELS ARE NEARLY SATURATED. ALSO...RIP CURRENT RISK
CONTINUES ALONG MOST GULF FACING BEACHES AS STRONG EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION. THREAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AS SWELLS DECREASE IN INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROG
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE CWA MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
EARLIER UPPER SYSTEM PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST.
ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FRONT WL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
TO GENERATE ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA SINCE
THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE NRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PROG/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A MEANDERING UPPER SYSTEM NEAR
THE WEST COAST MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. THIS
SYSTEM WL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
AREAS OF SEA FOG DRG THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE
BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS (SFC DEW POINT GREATER THAN SST VALUES PER
SPORT SST COMPOSITE) WHICH MAY ADVECT ACRS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS AND
ECMWF NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH TIMING.) THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT
AND UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST (INCLUDING CWA/MSA UNDER THE RRQ OF A STG UPPER JET
STREAK) IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA/MSA. CONTINUE TO EXPECT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AFTER
FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS
PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER
THE WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS (WARMER SST VALUES OVER OFFSHORE WATERS.) GFS PROGS
ISENTROPIC LIFT (300K LEVEL) THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. PATCHY LGT RAIN
MAY OCCUR THURSDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. PCPN TYPE...TOP-DOWN METHOD
APPLIED TO SELECTED 12Z THURSDAY/FRIDAY GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
LIMITED ICE CRYSTAL INITIALIZATION WOULD OCCUR. THE ALGORITHM BASED
ON 850-700MB/1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST THAT THE FREEZING
RAIN COULD OCCUR IF SFC TEMPS REACH FREEZING. YET...SFC TEMPS ARE
FCST TO FALL TO NO LOWER THAN MID 30S.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL TROUGH PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY
TODAY BUT SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  30  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  60  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  30  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  30  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 282149
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MSAS ANALYSIS AND
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF PORT ARANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A MARITIME AIRMASS IS
BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WITH WARMER AND MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS LOCATED FROM VICTORIA SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MID AND
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. FARTHER INLAND...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A THICK INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH TONIGHT GIVEN THICK CLOUD DECK AND EXPECTED
LITTLE CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LITTLE VARIATIONS
IN COASTAL LOW/TROUGH WILL IMPACT TEMPS...IE IF TROUGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THEN MIN TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST VALUES...AND A LITTLE LOWER IF TROUGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. WAA WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH A SE FLOW AT
925MB AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROG TO BE OVER NE ZONES. THUS...I HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NE AND DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SW.
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH GFS/ECMWF WANTING
TO SHIFT THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH INLAND OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WHILE THE NAM SHIFTS IT EAST. THIS CREATES A BIG HEADACHE
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE DETERMINISTIC NAM GIVES S TX
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AROUND 50 WHILE THE GFS WARMS US INTO THE 70S.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...I HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A NAM/SREF/TTU WRF
BLEND REGARDING POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH DUE TO BETTER
MODEL RESOLUTION...AND GIVE S TX HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS WAA WEAKENS. WITH TROUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...I HAVE ALSO GONE ON THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
LOWER LEVELS ARE NEARLY SATURATED. ALSO...RIP CURRENT RISK
CONTINUES ALONG MOST GULF FACING BEACHES AS STRONG EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION. THREAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AS SWELLS DECREASE IN INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROG
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE CWA MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
EARLIER UPPER SYSTEM PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST.
ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FRONT WL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
TO GENERATE ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA SINCE
THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE NRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PROG/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A MEANDERING UPPER SYSTEM NEAR
THE WEST COAST MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. THIS
SYSTEM WL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
AREAS OF SEA FOG DRG THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE
BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS (SFC DEW POINT GREATER THAN SST VALUES PER
SPORT SST COMPOSITE) WHICH MAY ADVECT ACRS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS AND
ECMWF NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH TIMING.) THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT
AND UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST (INCLUDING CWA/MSA UNDER THE RRQ OF A STG UPPER JET
STREAK) IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA/MSA. CONTINUE TO EXPECT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AFTER
FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS
PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER
THE WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS (WARMER SST VALUES OVER OFFSHORE WATERS.) GFS PROGS
ISENTROPIC LIFT (300K LEVEL) THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. PATCHY LGT RAIN
MAY OCCUR THURSDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. PCPN TYPE...TOP-DOWN METHOD
APPLIED TO SELECTED 12Z THURSDAY/FRIDAY GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
LIMITED ICE CRYSTAL INITIALIZATION WOULD OCCUR. THE ALGORITHM BASED
ON 850-700MB/1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST THAT THE FREEZING
RAIN COULD OCCUR IF SFC TEMPS REACH FREEZING. YET...SFC TEMPS ARE
FCST TO FALL TO NO LOWER THAN MID 30S.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL TROUGH PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY
TODAY BUT SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  30  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  60  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  30  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  30  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 282149
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MSAS ANALYSIS AND
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF PORT ARANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A MARITIME AIRMASS IS
BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WITH WARMER AND MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS LOCATED FROM VICTORIA SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MID AND
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. FARTHER INLAND...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A THICK INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH TONIGHT GIVEN THICK CLOUD DECK AND EXPECTED
LITTLE CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LITTLE VARIATIONS
IN COASTAL LOW/TROUGH WILL IMPACT TEMPS...IE IF TROUGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THEN MIN TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST VALUES...AND A LITTLE LOWER IF TROUGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. WAA WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH A SE FLOW AT
925MB AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROG TO BE OVER NE ZONES. THUS...I HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NE AND DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SW.
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH GFS/ECMWF WANTING
TO SHIFT THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH INLAND OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WHILE THE NAM SHIFTS IT EAST. THIS CREATES A BIG HEADACHE
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE DETERMINISTIC NAM GIVES S TX
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AROUND 50 WHILE THE GFS WARMS US INTO THE 70S.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...I HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A NAM/SREF/TTU WRF
BLEND REGARDING POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH DUE TO BETTER
MODEL RESOLUTION...AND GIVE S TX HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS WAA WEAKENS. WITH TROUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...I HAVE ALSO GONE ON THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
LOWER LEVELS ARE NEARLY SATURATED. ALSO...RIP CURRENT RISK
CONTINUES ALONG MOST GULF FACING BEACHES AS STRONG EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION. THREAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AS SWELLS DECREASE IN INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROG
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE CWA MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
EARLIER UPPER SYSTEM PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST.
ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FRONT WL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
TO GENERATE ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA SINCE
THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE NRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PROG/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A MEANDERING UPPER SYSTEM NEAR
THE WEST COAST MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. THIS
SYSTEM WL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
AREAS OF SEA FOG DRG THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE
BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS (SFC DEW POINT GREATER THAN SST VALUES PER
SPORT SST COMPOSITE) WHICH MAY ADVECT ACRS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS AND
ECMWF NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH TIMING.) THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT
AND UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST (INCLUDING CWA/MSA UNDER THE RRQ OF A STG UPPER JET
STREAK) IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA/MSA. CONTINUE TO EXPECT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AFTER
FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS
PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER
THE WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS (WARMER SST VALUES OVER OFFSHORE WATERS.) GFS PROGS
ISENTROPIC LIFT (300K LEVEL) THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. PATCHY LGT RAIN
MAY OCCUR THURSDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. PCPN TYPE...TOP-DOWN METHOD
APPLIED TO SELECTED 12Z THURSDAY/FRIDAY GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
LIMITED ICE CRYSTAL INITIALIZATION WOULD OCCUR. THE ALGORITHM BASED
ON 850-700MB/1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST THAT THE FREEZING
RAIN COULD OCCUR IF SFC TEMPS REACH FREEZING. YET...SFC TEMPS ARE
FCST TO FALL TO NO LOWER THAN MID 30S.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL TROUGH PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY
TODAY BUT SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  30  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  60  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  30  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  30  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 282149
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MSAS ANALYSIS AND
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF PORT ARANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A MARITIME AIRMASS IS
BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WITH WARMER AND MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS LOCATED FROM VICTORIA SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MID AND
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. FARTHER INLAND...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A THICK INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH TONIGHT GIVEN THICK CLOUD DECK AND EXPECTED
LITTLE CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LITTLE VARIATIONS
IN COASTAL LOW/TROUGH WILL IMPACT TEMPS...IE IF TROUGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THEN MIN TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST VALUES...AND A LITTLE LOWER IF TROUGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. WAA WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH A SE FLOW AT
925MB AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROG TO BE OVER NE ZONES. THUS...I HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NE AND DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SW.
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH GFS/ECMWF WANTING
TO SHIFT THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH INLAND OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WHILE THE NAM SHIFTS IT EAST. THIS CREATES A BIG HEADACHE
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE DETERMINISTIC NAM GIVES S TX
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AROUND 50 WHILE THE GFS WARMS US INTO THE 70S.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...I HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A NAM/SREF/TTU WRF
BLEND REGARDING POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH DUE TO BETTER
MODEL RESOLUTION...AND GIVE S TX HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS WAA WEAKENS. WITH TROUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...I HAVE ALSO GONE ON THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
LOWER LEVELS ARE NEARLY SATURATED. ALSO...RIP CURRENT RISK
CONTINUES ALONG MOST GULF FACING BEACHES AS STRONG EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION. THREAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AS SWELLS DECREASE IN INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROG
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE CWA MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
EARLIER UPPER SYSTEM PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST.
ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FRONT WL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
TO GENERATE ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA SINCE
THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE NRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PROG/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A MEANDERING UPPER SYSTEM NEAR
THE WEST COAST MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. THIS
SYSTEM WL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
AREAS OF SEA FOG DRG THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE
BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS (SFC DEW POINT GREATER THAN SST VALUES PER
SPORT SST COMPOSITE) WHICH MAY ADVECT ACRS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS AND
ECMWF NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH TIMING.) THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT
AND UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST (INCLUDING CWA/MSA UNDER THE RRQ OF A STG UPPER JET
STREAK) IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA/MSA. CONTINUE TO EXPECT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AFTER
FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS
PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER
THE WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS (WARMER SST VALUES OVER OFFSHORE WATERS.) GFS PROGS
ISENTROPIC LIFT (300K LEVEL) THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. PATCHY LGT RAIN
MAY OCCUR THURSDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. PCPN TYPE...TOP-DOWN METHOD
APPLIED TO SELECTED 12Z THURSDAY/FRIDAY GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
LIMITED ICE CRYSTAL INITIALIZATION WOULD OCCUR. THE ALGORITHM BASED
ON 850-700MB/1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST THAT THE FREEZING
RAIN COULD OCCUR IF SFC TEMPS REACH FREEZING. YET...SFC TEMPS ARE
FCST TO FALL TO NO LOWER THAN MID 30S.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL TROUGH PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY
TODAY BUT SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  30  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  60  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  30  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  30  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 281751 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

&&

.AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES MOST OF NEXT 24 HRS. ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KVCT EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND POSSIBLY
AT KLRD LATE THIS AFTN...S TX TERMINALS XPCTD TO HAVE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL DRNG THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF -RA/DZ THIS AFTN
MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF -DZ
DVLPNG OVERNIGHT. KLRD MAY BECOME DRY BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CIGS WILL THEN
LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION TO LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT...VSBYS MAY ALSO
LOWER TONIGHT THRU SUN MRNG TO LOW END IFR/LIFR LEVELS AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES. NERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTN
AT KCRP/KVCT BCMG MORE NNWRLY BY SUN MRNG...NWRLY WIND 5 TO 10 KTS
XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/KALI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  54  72  62  78  /  70  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          51  51  73  61  77  /  50  50  40  20  20
LAREDO            43  43  73  61  85  /  20  30  10  10  10
ALICE             48  48  73  62  83  /  60  50  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  58  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  20
COTULLA           42  42  71  60  81  /  20  40  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  73  63  82  /  60  50  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       63  57  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281751 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

&&

.AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES MOST OF NEXT 24 HRS. ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KVCT EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND POSSIBLY
AT KLRD LATE THIS AFTN...S TX TERMINALS XPCTD TO HAVE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL DRNG THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF -RA/DZ THIS AFTN
MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF -DZ
DVLPNG OVERNIGHT. KLRD MAY BECOME DRY BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CIGS WILL THEN
LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION TO LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT...VSBYS MAY ALSO
LOWER TONIGHT THRU SUN MRNG TO LOW END IFR/LIFR LEVELS AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES. NERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTN
AT KCRP/KVCT BCMG MORE NNWRLY BY SUN MRNG...NWRLY WIND 5 TO 10 KTS
XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/KALI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  54  72  62  78  /  70  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          51  51  73  61  77  /  50  50  40  20  20
LAREDO            43  43  73  61  85  /  20  30  10  10  10
ALICE             48  48  73  62  83  /  60  50  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  58  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  20
COTULLA           42  42  71  60  81  /  20  40  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  73  63  82  /  60  50  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       63  57  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 281751 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

&&

.AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES MOST OF NEXT 24 HRS. ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KVCT EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND POSSIBLY
AT KLRD LATE THIS AFTN...S TX TERMINALS XPCTD TO HAVE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL DRNG THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF -RA/DZ THIS AFTN
MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF -DZ
DVLPNG OVERNIGHT. KLRD MAY BECOME DRY BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CIGS WILL THEN
LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION TO LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT...VSBYS MAY ALSO
LOWER TONIGHT THRU SUN MRNG TO LOW END IFR/LIFR LEVELS AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES. NERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTN
AT KCRP/KVCT BCMG MORE NNWRLY BY SUN MRNG...NWRLY WIND 5 TO 10 KTS
XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/KALI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  54  72  62  78  /  70  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          51  51  73  61  77  /  50  50  40  20  20
LAREDO            43  43  73  61  85  /  20  30  10  10  10
ALICE             48  48  73  62  83  /  60  50  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  58  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  20
COTULLA           42  42  71  60  81  /  20  40  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  73  63  82  /  60  50  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       63  57  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 281751 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

&&

.AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES MOST OF NEXT 24 HRS. ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KVCT EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND POSSIBLY
AT KLRD LATE THIS AFTN...S TX TERMINALS XPCTD TO HAVE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL DRNG THE NEXT 24 HRS. AREAS OF -RA/DZ THIS AFTN
MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF -DZ
DVLPNG OVERNIGHT. KLRD MAY BECOME DRY BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CIGS WILL THEN
LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION TO LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT...VSBYS MAY ALSO
LOWER TONIGHT THRU SUN MRNG TO LOW END IFR/LIFR LEVELS AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES. NERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTN
AT KCRP/KVCT BCMG MORE NNWRLY BY SUN MRNG...NWRLY WIND 5 TO 10 KTS
XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD AT KLRD/KALI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  54  72  62  78  /  70  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          51  51  73  61  77  /  50  50  40  20  20
LAREDO            43  43  73  61  85  /  20  30  10  10  10
ALICE             48  48  73  62  83  /  60  50  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  58  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  20
COTULLA           42  42  71  60  81  /  20  40  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  73  63  82  /  60  50  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       63  57  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281645 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1045 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...AS OF WRITING A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED TO BE
LOCATED JUST NE OF PORT MANSFIELD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THIS LOW AND TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAIN AREA OF
WARM AIR EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE. I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS FOR TODAY GIVEN
COLD/SHALLOW AIRMASS TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION. ALSO LOWERED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND INCREASED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  54  72  62  78  /  70  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          51  51  73  61  77  /  50  50  40  20  20
LAREDO            43  43  73  61  85  /  20  30  10  10  10
ALICE             48  48  73  62  83  /  60  50  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  58  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  20
COTULLA           42  42  71  60  81  /  20  40  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  73  63  82  /  60  50  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       63  57  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 281645 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1045 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...AS OF WRITING A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED TO BE
LOCATED JUST NE OF PORT MANSFIELD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THIS LOW AND TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAIN AREA OF
WARM AIR EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE. I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS FOR TODAY GIVEN
COLD/SHALLOW AIRMASS TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION. ALSO LOWERED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND INCREASED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  54  72  62  78  /  70  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          51  51  73  61  77  /  50  50  40  20  20
LAREDO            43  43  73  61  85  /  20  30  10  10  10
ALICE             48  48  73  62  83  /  60  50  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  58  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  20
COTULLA           42  42  71  60  81  /  20  40  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  73  63  82  /  60  50  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       63  57  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 281123
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
523 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...LOW FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MAINLY IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. VCT CURRENTLY AT
MVFR WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. THE COASTAL TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT IN THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FRONT...THE GENERAL AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING IS FOR THE TROUGH TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. FROM
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA...THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
BUOY 20 AND THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE NORTHEAST
FLOW FOR LAND AREAS AND AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN INTO THE
AREA WITH A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS WEST.
REGARDLESS OF IF MEASURABLE PRECIP OCCURS...EXPECT AT LEAST
DRIZZLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH
DECREASING POPS TOMORROW. EXPECT TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN COOL...BUT
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE...BUT PRECIP TO
DECREASE. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH
GFS QUITE WARM...AND NAM MUCH COOLER. HAVE STUCK TOWARD THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH WARM ADVECTION FEEDING INTO THE AREA.

WILL CONTINUE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY
LONG PERIOD...THOUGH LOW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN. THIS
COMBINED WITH HIGH WIND WAVES COULD CREATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF
FACING BEACHES. BY THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AND LOWER
THE RIP CURRENT RISK.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETREAT AS A RESULT...WITH LOW CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST SECTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND 80S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 90
DEGREES ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT WILL TARGET LOWER 70S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
80 ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S AS STRONG CAA FILTERS INTO SOUTH TEXAS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. MARINE HEADLINES
WILL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOP. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND HAVE UNDERCUT SUPERBLEND TEMPS. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  72  62  78  64  /  50  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          53  73  61  77  64  /  50  40  20  20  20
LAREDO            47  73  61  85  65  /  30  10  10  10  10
ALICE             52  73  62  83  64  /  50  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          58  71  62  73  64  /  50  30  10  20  10
COTULLA           44  71  60  81  63  /  40  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        54  73  63  82  64  /  50  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       57  71  62  73  64  /  50  30  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281123
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
523 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...LOW FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MAINLY IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. VCT CURRENTLY AT
MVFR WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. THE COASTAL TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT IN THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FRONT...THE GENERAL AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING IS FOR THE TROUGH TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. FROM
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA...THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
BUOY 20 AND THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE NORTHEAST
FLOW FOR LAND AREAS AND AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN INTO THE
AREA WITH A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS WEST.
REGARDLESS OF IF MEASURABLE PRECIP OCCURS...EXPECT AT LEAST
DRIZZLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH
DECREASING POPS TOMORROW. EXPECT TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN COOL...BUT
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE...BUT PRECIP TO
DECREASE. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH
GFS QUITE WARM...AND NAM MUCH COOLER. HAVE STUCK TOWARD THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH WARM ADVECTION FEEDING INTO THE AREA.

WILL CONTINUE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY
LONG PERIOD...THOUGH LOW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN. THIS
COMBINED WITH HIGH WIND WAVES COULD CREATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF
FACING BEACHES. BY THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AND LOWER
THE RIP CURRENT RISK.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETREAT AS A RESULT...WITH LOW CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST SECTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND 80S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 90
DEGREES ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT WILL TARGET LOWER 70S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
80 ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S AS STRONG CAA FILTERS INTO SOUTH TEXAS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. MARINE HEADLINES
WILL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOP. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND HAVE UNDERCUT SUPERBLEND TEMPS. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  72  62  78  64  /  50  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          53  73  61  77  64  /  50  40  20  20  20
LAREDO            47  73  61  85  65  /  30  10  10  10  10
ALICE             52  73  62  83  64  /  50  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          58  71  62  73  64  /  50  30  10  20  10
COTULLA           44  71  60  81  63  /  40  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        54  73  63  82  64  /  50  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       57  71  62  73  64  /  50  30  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 281002
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
402 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT IN THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FRONT...THE GENERAL AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING IS FOR THE TROUGH TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. FROM
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA...THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
BUOY 20 AND THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE NORTHEAST
FLOW FOR LAND AREAS AND AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN INTO THE
AREA WITH A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS WEST.
REGARDLESS OF IF MEASURABLE PRECIP OCCURS...EXPECT AT LEAST
DRIZZLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH
DECREASING POPS TOMORROW. EXPECT TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN COOL...BUT
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE...BUT PRECIP TO
DECREASE. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH
GFS QUITE WARM...AND NAM MUCH COOLER. HAVE STUCK TOWARD THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH WARM ADVECTION FEEDING INTO THE AREA.

WILL CONTINUE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY
LONG PERIOD...THOUGH LOW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN. THIS
COMBINED WITH HIGH WIND WAVES COULD CREATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF
FACING BEACHES. BY THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AND LOWER
THE RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETREAT AS A RESULT...WITH LOW CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST SECTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND 80S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 90
DEGREES ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT WILL TARGET LOWER 70S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
80 ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S AS STRONG CAA FILTERS INTO SOUTH TEXAS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. MARINE HEADLINES
WILL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOP. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND HAVE UNDERCUT SUPERBLEND TEMPS. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    58  55  72  62  78  /  70  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          54  53  73  61  77  /  50  50  40  20  20
LAREDO            50  47  73  61  85  /  50  30  10  10  10
ALICE             55  52  73  62  83  /  60  50  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          60  58  71  62  73  /  60  50  30  10  20
COTULLA           47  44  71  60  81  /  50  40  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        59  54  73  63  82  /  70  50  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  57  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 281002
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
402 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT IN THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FRONT...THE GENERAL AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING IS FOR THE TROUGH TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. FROM
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA...THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
BUOY 20 AND THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE NORTHEAST
FLOW FOR LAND AREAS AND AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN INTO THE
AREA WITH A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS WEST.
REGARDLESS OF IF MEASURABLE PRECIP OCCURS...EXPECT AT LEAST
DRIZZLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH
DECREASING POPS TOMORROW. EXPECT TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN COOL...BUT
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE...BUT PRECIP TO
DECREASE. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH
GFS QUITE WARM...AND NAM MUCH COOLER. HAVE STUCK TOWARD THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH WARM ADVECTION FEEDING INTO THE AREA.

WILL CONTINUE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY
LONG PERIOD...THOUGH LOW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN. THIS
COMBINED WITH HIGH WIND WAVES COULD CREATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF
FACING BEACHES. BY THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AND LOWER
THE RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETREAT AS A RESULT...WITH LOW CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST SECTIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND 80S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 90
DEGREES ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT WILL TARGET LOWER 70S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
80 ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S AS STRONG CAA FILTERS INTO SOUTH TEXAS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. MARINE HEADLINES
WILL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOP. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND HAVE UNDERCUT SUPERBLEND TEMPS. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    58  55  72  62  78  /  70  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          54  53  73  61  77  /  50  50  40  20  20
LAREDO            50  47  73  61  85  /  50  30  10  10  10
ALICE             55  52  73  62  83  /  60  50  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          60  58  71  62  73  /  60  50  30  10  20
COTULLA           47  44  71  60  81  /  50  40  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        59  54  73  63  82  /  70  50  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  57  71  62  73  /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 280447 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1047 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS WERE PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY WHILE CEILINGS WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AT MVFR.
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST MAY DRIFT INLAND SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES.
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE COASTAL
BEND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE
COASTAL BEND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL FALL TO LIFR AROUND 08Z.
VSBYS FROM AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR
DURING THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE IFR BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL BEND. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY LATE
MORNING FOR VICTORIA AREA AND DETERIORATE TO LIFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY WHILE CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR OVER LRD AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS/OBS SHOWING A
CONTINUED SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND...HAVE UPDATED THE TEMP FCST FOR
TONIGHT BY 2-3 DEGREES WHICH PUT SOME SITES IN A LOWER TEMP CAT.
UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. OVERALL FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
COAST WITH LIGHT RAIN OVERRUNING THE COLD AIRMASS SITTING ACROSS
S TX. MODELS PROG THE COASTAL TROUGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE MN TEMPS TRICKY FOR THE COASTAL BEND.
CURRENTLY MANY LOCATIONS ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE FCSTD MN TEMP.
MOS GUIDANCE PROGS TEMPS TO GENERALLY STAY STEADY ACROSS THE W AND
N PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH MVG INLAND. IF
THE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE COAST...THEN TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STEADY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMP TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE...BUT FOR NOW THINK THE FCSTD
VALUES WILL PAN OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH PROVIDING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MOD TO STRONG NE WIND WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FCST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    47  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          42  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            35  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             42  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          47  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           35  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        46  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       47  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 280447 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1047 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS WERE PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY WHILE CEILINGS WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AT MVFR.
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST MAY DRIFT INLAND SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES.
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE COASTAL
BEND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE
COASTAL BEND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL FALL TO LIFR AROUND 08Z.
VSBYS FROM AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR
DURING THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE IFR BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL BEND. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY LATE
MORNING FOR VICTORIA AREA AND DETERIORATE TO LIFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY WHILE CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR OVER LRD AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS/OBS SHOWING A
CONTINUED SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND...HAVE UPDATED THE TEMP FCST FOR
TONIGHT BY 2-3 DEGREES WHICH PUT SOME SITES IN A LOWER TEMP CAT.
UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. OVERALL FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
COAST WITH LIGHT RAIN OVERRUNING THE COLD AIRMASS SITTING ACROSS
S TX. MODELS PROG THE COASTAL TROUGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE MN TEMPS TRICKY FOR THE COASTAL BEND.
CURRENTLY MANY LOCATIONS ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE FCSTD MN TEMP.
MOS GUIDANCE PROGS TEMPS TO GENERALLY STAY STEADY ACROSS THE W AND
N PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH MVG INLAND. IF
THE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE COAST...THEN TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STEADY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMP TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE...BUT FOR NOW THINK THE FCSTD
VALUES WILL PAN OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH PROVIDING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MOD TO STRONG NE WIND WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FCST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    47  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          42  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            35  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             42  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          47  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           35  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        46  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       47  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 280339
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
939 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS/OBS SHOWING A
CONTINUED SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND...HAVE UPDATED THE TEMP FCST FOR
TONIGHT BY 2-3 DEGREES WHICH PUT SOME SITES IN A LOWER TEMP CAT.
UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. OVERALL FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
COAST WITH LIGHT RAIN OVERRUNING THE COLD AIRMASS SITTING ACROSS
S TX. MODELS PROG THE COASTAL TROUGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE MN TEMPS TRICKY FOR THE COASTAL BEND.
CURRENTLY MANY LOCATIONS ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE FCSTD MN TEMP.
MOS GUIDANCE PROGS TEMPS TO GENERALLY STAY STEADY ACROSS THE W AND
N PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH MVG INLAND. IF
THE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE COAST...THEN TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STEADY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMP TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE...BUT FOR NOW THINK THE FCSTD
VALUES WILL PAN OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH PROVIDING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MOD TO STRONG NE WIND WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE REGION AT
THIS TIME ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING OVER
THE COASTAL BEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE COASTAL BEND
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY 04Z FALLING TO LIFR AROUND 08Z. VSBYS
FROM AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE IFR BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
FOR THE COASTAL BEND. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY LATE MORNING
FOR VICTORIA AREA AND DETERIORATE TO LIFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON POSITIONING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH AND ANY LITTLE VARIATION OF FORECAST POSITIONING COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA WEATHER. AS OF
WRITING...MSAS ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF MCALLEN TO JUST SOUTH
OF EDINBURG EXTENDING NE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...AND IS
PROG TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WAA JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY 925MB
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS PROVIDING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...A 100KT H25 JET STREAK IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT NORTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PROG TO BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THIS
EVENING AT THE 295K LEVEL AND THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES. DESPITE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID AS A RATHER STOUT WARM LAYER FROM H9 TO H8 IS PROG TO WARM
FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SHOULD NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES WHILE FARTHER EAST TEMPS
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THEN HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR SATURDAY REGARDING
HANDLING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM AND TTU WRF KEEP THE
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ALONG WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
NAM AND TTU FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION NEEDED FOR A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS NE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TROUGH SLIDES INLAND FARTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...BUT
SOUTHERLY WAA INCREASES.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AND RESULT IN LOWER POPS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS DEVELOP AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. (IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS LIKELY.) THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.) THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A STG UPPER JET STREAK WHICH
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS. BASED ON GFS
DETERMINISTIC CLOUD COVER WL PERSIST AFTER FROPA OWING TO MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

MARINE...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND PEAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    47  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          42  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            35  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             42  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          47  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           35  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        46  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       47  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 280339
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
939 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS/OBS SHOWING A
CONTINUED SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND...HAVE UPDATED THE TEMP FCST FOR
TONIGHT BY 2-3 DEGREES WHICH PUT SOME SITES IN A LOWER TEMP CAT.
UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. OVERALL FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
COAST WITH LIGHT RAIN OVERRUNING THE COLD AIRMASS SITTING ACROSS
S TX. MODELS PROG THE COASTAL TROUGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE MN TEMPS TRICKY FOR THE COASTAL BEND.
CURRENTLY MANY LOCATIONS ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE FCSTD MN TEMP.
MOS GUIDANCE PROGS TEMPS TO GENERALLY STAY STEADY ACROSS THE W AND
N PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH MVG INLAND. IF
THE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE COAST...THEN TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STEADY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMP TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE...BUT FOR NOW THINK THE FCSTD
VALUES WILL PAN OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH PROVIDING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MOD TO STRONG NE WIND WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE REGION AT
THIS TIME ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING OVER
THE COASTAL BEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE COASTAL BEND
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY 04Z FALLING TO LIFR AROUND 08Z. VSBYS
FROM AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE IFR BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
FOR THE COASTAL BEND. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY LATE MORNING
FOR VICTORIA AREA AND DETERIORATE TO LIFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON POSITIONING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH AND ANY LITTLE VARIATION OF FORECAST POSITIONING COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA WEATHER. AS OF
WRITING...MSAS ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF MCALLEN TO JUST SOUTH
OF EDINBURG EXTENDING NE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...AND IS
PROG TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WAA JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY 925MB
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS PROVIDING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...A 100KT H25 JET STREAK IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT NORTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PROG TO BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THIS
EVENING AT THE 295K LEVEL AND THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES. DESPITE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID AS A RATHER STOUT WARM LAYER FROM H9 TO H8 IS PROG TO WARM
FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SHOULD NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES WHILE FARTHER EAST TEMPS
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THEN HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR SATURDAY REGARDING
HANDLING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM AND TTU WRF KEEP THE
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ALONG WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
NAM AND TTU FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION NEEDED FOR A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS NE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TROUGH SLIDES INLAND FARTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...BUT
SOUTHERLY WAA INCREASES.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AND RESULT IN LOWER POPS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS DEVELOP AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. (IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS LIKELY.) THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.) THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A STG UPPER JET STREAK WHICH
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS. BASED ON GFS
DETERMINISTIC CLOUD COVER WL PERSIST AFTER FROPA OWING TO MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

MARINE...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND PEAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    47  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          42  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            35  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             42  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          47  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           35  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        46  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       47  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 280231
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
831 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
COAST WITH LIGHT RAIN OVERRUNING THE COLD AIRMASS SITTING ACROSS
S TX. MODELS PROG THE COASTAL TROUGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE MN TEMPS TRICKY FOR THE COASTAL BEND.
CURRENTLY MANY LOCATIONS ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE FCSTD MN TEMP.
MOS GUIDANCE PROGS TEMPS TO GENERALLY STAY STEADY ACROSS THE W AND
N PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH MVG INLAND. IF
THE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE COAST...THEN TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STEADY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMP TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE...BUT FOR NOW THINK THE FCSTD
VALUES WILL PAN OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH PROVIDING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MOD TO STRONG NE WIND WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE REGION AT
THIS TIME ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING OVER
THE COASTAL BEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE COASTAL BEND
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY 04Z FALLING TO LIFR AROUND 08Z. VSBYS
FROM AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE IFR BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
FOR THE COASTAL BEND. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY LATE MORNING
FOR VICTORIA AREA AND DETERIORATE TO LIFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON POSITIONING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH AND ANY LITTLE VARIATION OF FORECAST POSITIONING COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA WEATHER. AS OF
WRITING...MSAS ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF MCALLEN TO JUST SOUTH
OF EDINBURG EXTENDING NE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...AND IS
PROG TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WAA JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY 925MB
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS PROVIDING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...A 100KT H25 JET STREAK IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT NORTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PROG TO BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THIS
EVENING AT THE 295K LEVEL AND THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES. DESPITE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID AS A RATHER STOUT WARM LAYER FROM H9 TO H8 IS PROG TO WARM
FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SHOULD NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES WHILE FARTHER EAST TEMPS
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THEN HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR SATURDAY REGARDING
HANDLING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM AND TTU WRF KEEP THE
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ALONG WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
NAM AND TTU FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION NEEDED FOR A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS NE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TROUGH SLIDES INLAND FARTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...BUT
SOUTHERLY WAA INCREASES.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AND RESULT IN LOWER POPS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS DEVELOP AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. (IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS LIKELY.) THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.) THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A STG UPPER JET STREAK WHICH
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS. BASED ON GFS
DETERMINISTIC CLOUD COVER WL PERSIST AFTER FROPA OWING TO MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

MARINE...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND PEAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          44  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            37  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             46  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          51  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           37  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        48  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 280231
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
831 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
COAST WITH LIGHT RAIN OVERRUNING THE COLD AIRMASS SITTING ACROSS
S TX. MODELS PROG THE COASTAL TROUGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE MN TEMPS TRICKY FOR THE COASTAL BEND.
CURRENTLY MANY LOCATIONS ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE FCSTD MN TEMP.
MOS GUIDANCE PROGS TEMPS TO GENERALLY STAY STEADY ACROSS THE W AND
N PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH MVG INLAND. IF
THE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE COAST...THEN TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STEADY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMP TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE...BUT FOR NOW THINK THE FCSTD
VALUES WILL PAN OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH PROVIDING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MOD TO STRONG NE WIND WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE REGION AT
THIS TIME ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING OVER
THE COASTAL BEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE COASTAL BEND
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY 04Z FALLING TO LIFR AROUND 08Z. VSBYS
FROM AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE IFR BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
FOR THE COASTAL BEND. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY LATE MORNING
FOR VICTORIA AREA AND DETERIORATE TO LIFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON POSITIONING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH AND ANY LITTLE VARIATION OF FORECAST POSITIONING COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA WEATHER. AS OF
WRITING...MSAS ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF MCALLEN TO JUST SOUTH
OF EDINBURG EXTENDING NE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...AND IS
PROG TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WAA JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY 925MB
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS PROVIDING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...A 100KT H25 JET STREAK IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT NORTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PROG TO BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THIS
EVENING AT THE 295K LEVEL AND THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES. DESPITE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID AS A RATHER STOUT WARM LAYER FROM H9 TO H8 IS PROG TO WARM
FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SHOULD NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES WHILE FARTHER EAST TEMPS
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THEN HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR SATURDAY REGARDING
HANDLING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM AND TTU WRF KEEP THE
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ALONG WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
NAM AND TTU FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION NEEDED FOR A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS NE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TROUGH SLIDES INLAND FARTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...BUT
SOUTHERLY WAA INCREASES.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AND RESULT IN LOWER POPS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS DEVELOP AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. (IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS LIKELY.) THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.) THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A STG UPPER JET STREAK WHICH
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS. BASED ON GFS
DETERMINISTIC CLOUD COVER WL PERSIST AFTER FROPA OWING TO MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

MARINE...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND PEAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          44  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            37  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             46  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          51  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           37  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        48  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 272354 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
554 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE REGION AT
THIS TIME ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING OVER
THE COASTAL BEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE COASTAL BEND
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY 04Z FALLING TO LIFR AROUND 08Z. VSBYS
FROM AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE IFR BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
FOR THE COASTAL BEND. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY LATE MORNING
FOR VICTORIA AREA AND DETERIORATE TO LIFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON POSITIONING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH AND ANY LITTLE VARIATION OF FORECAST POSITIONING COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA WEATHER. AS OF
WRITING...MSAS ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF MCALLEN TO JUST SOUTH
OF EDINBURG EXTENDING NE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...AND IS
PROG TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WAA JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY 925MB
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS PROVIDING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...A 100KT H25 JET STREAK IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT NORTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PROG TO BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THIS
EVENING AT THE 295K LEVEL AND THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES. DESPITE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID AS A RATHER STOUT WARM LAYER FROM H9 TO H8 IS PROG TO WARM
FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SHOULD NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES WHILE FARTHER EAST TEMPS
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THEN HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR SATURDAY REGARDING
HANDLING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM AND TTU WRF KEEP THE
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ALONG WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
NAM AND TTU FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION NEEDED FOR A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS NE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TROUGH SLIDES INLAND FARTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...BUT
SOUTHERLY WAA INCREASES.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AND RESULT IN LOWER POPS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS DEVELOP AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. (IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS LIKELY.) THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.) THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A STG UPPER JET STREAK WHICH
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS. BASED ON GFS
DETERMINISTIC CLOUD COVER WL PERSIST AFTER FROPA OWING TO MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

MARINE...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND PEAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          44  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            37  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             46  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          51  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           37  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        48  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 272354 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
554 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE REGION AT
THIS TIME ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING OVER
THE COASTAL BEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE COASTAL BEND
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY 04Z FALLING TO LIFR AROUND 08Z. VSBYS
FROM AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE IFR BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
FOR THE COASTAL BEND. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY LATE MORNING
FOR VICTORIA AREA AND DETERIORATE TO LIFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON POSITIONING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH AND ANY LITTLE VARIATION OF FORECAST POSITIONING COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA WEATHER. AS OF
WRITING...MSAS ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF MCALLEN TO JUST SOUTH
OF EDINBURG EXTENDING NE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...AND IS
PROG TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WAA JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY 925MB
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS PROVIDING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...A 100KT H25 JET STREAK IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT NORTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PROG TO BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THIS
EVENING AT THE 295K LEVEL AND THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES. DESPITE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID AS A RATHER STOUT WARM LAYER FROM H9 TO H8 IS PROG TO WARM
FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SHOULD NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES WHILE FARTHER EAST TEMPS
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THEN HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR SATURDAY REGARDING
HANDLING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM AND TTU WRF KEEP THE
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ALONG WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
NAM AND TTU FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION NEEDED FOR A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS NE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TROUGH SLIDES INLAND FARTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...BUT
SOUTHERLY WAA INCREASES.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AND RESULT IN LOWER POPS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS DEVELOP AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. (IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS LIKELY.) THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.) THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A STG UPPER JET STREAK WHICH
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS. BASED ON GFS
DETERMINISTIC CLOUD COVER WL PERSIST AFTER FROPA OWING TO MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

MARINE...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND PEAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          44  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            37  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             46  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          51  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           37  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        48  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 272354 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
554 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE REGION AT
THIS TIME ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING OVER
THE COASTAL BEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE COASTAL BEND
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY 04Z FALLING TO LIFR AROUND 08Z. VSBYS
FROM AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE IFR BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
FOR THE COASTAL BEND. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY LATE MORNING
FOR VICTORIA AREA AND DETERIORATE TO LIFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON POSITIONING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH AND ANY LITTLE VARIATION OF FORECAST POSITIONING COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA WEATHER. AS OF
WRITING...MSAS ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF MCALLEN TO JUST SOUTH
OF EDINBURG EXTENDING NE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...AND IS
PROG TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WAA JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY 925MB
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS PROVIDING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...A 100KT H25 JET STREAK IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT NORTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PROG TO BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THIS
EVENING AT THE 295K LEVEL AND THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES. DESPITE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID AS A RATHER STOUT WARM LAYER FROM H9 TO H8 IS PROG TO WARM
FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SHOULD NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES WHILE FARTHER EAST TEMPS
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THEN HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR SATURDAY REGARDING
HANDLING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM AND TTU WRF KEEP THE
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ALONG WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
NAM AND TTU FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION NEEDED FOR A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS NE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TROUGH SLIDES INLAND FARTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...BUT
SOUTHERLY WAA INCREASES.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AND RESULT IN LOWER POPS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS DEVELOP AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. (IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS LIKELY.) THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.) THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A STG UPPER JET STREAK WHICH
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS. BASED ON GFS
DETERMINISTIC CLOUD COVER WL PERSIST AFTER FROPA OWING TO MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

MARINE...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND PEAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          44  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            37  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             46  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          51  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           37  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        48  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 272354 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
554 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE REGION AT
THIS TIME ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING OVER
THE COASTAL BEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE COASTAL BEND
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY 04Z FALLING TO LIFR AROUND 08Z. VSBYS
FROM AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE IFR BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
FOR THE COASTAL BEND. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY LATE MORNING
FOR VICTORIA AREA AND DETERIORATE TO LIFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON POSITIONING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH AND ANY LITTLE VARIATION OF FORECAST POSITIONING COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA WEATHER. AS OF
WRITING...MSAS ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF MCALLEN TO JUST SOUTH
OF EDINBURG EXTENDING NE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...AND IS
PROG TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WAA JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY 925MB
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS PROVIDING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...A 100KT H25 JET STREAK IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT NORTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PROG TO BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THIS
EVENING AT THE 295K LEVEL AND THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES. DESPITE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID AS A RATHER STOUT WARM LAYER FROM H9 TO H8 IS PROG TO WARM
FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SHOULD NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES WHILE FARTHER EAST TEMPS
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THEN HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR SATURDAY REGARDING
HANDLING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM AND TTU WRF KEEP THE
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ALONG WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
NAM AND TTU FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION NEEDED FOR A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS NE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TROUGH SLIDES INLAND FARTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...BUT
SOUTHERLY WAA INCREASES.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AND RESULT IN LOWER POPS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS DEVELOP AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. (IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS LIKELY.) THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.) THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A STG UPPER JET STREAK WHICH
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS. BASED ON GFS
DETERMINISTIC CLOUD COVER WL PERSIST AFTER FROPA OWING TO MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

MARINE...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND PEAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          44  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            37  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             46  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          51  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           37  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        48  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 272156
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
356 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON POSITIONING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH AND ANY LITTLE VARIATION OF FORECAST POSITIONING COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA WEATHER. AS OF
WRITING...MSAS ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF MCALLEN TO JUST SOUTH
OF EDINBURG EXTENDING NE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...AND IS
PROG TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WAA JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY 925MB
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS PROVIDING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...A 100KT H25 JET STREAK IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT NORTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PROG TO BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THIS
EVENING AT THE 295K LEVEL AND THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES. DESPITE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID AS A RATHER STOUT WARM LAYER FROM H9 TO H8 IS PROG TO WARM
FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SHOULD NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES WHILE FARTHER EAST TEMPS
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THEN HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR SATURDAY REGARDING
HANDLING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM AND TTU WRF KEEP THE
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ALONG WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
NAM AND TTU FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION NEEDED FOR A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS NE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TROUGH SLIDES INLAND FARTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...BUT
SOUTHERLY WAA INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AND RESULT IN LOWER POPS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS DEVELOP AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. (IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS LIKELY.) THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.) THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A STG UPPER JET STREAK WHICH
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS. BASED ON GFS
DETERMINISTIC CLOUD COVER WL PERSIST AFTER FROPA OWING TO MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.MARINE...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND PEAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          44  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            37  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             46  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          51  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           37  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        48  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 272156
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
356 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON POSITIONING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH AND ANY LITTLE VARIATION OF FORECAST POSITIONING COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA WEATHER. AS OF
WRITING...MSAS ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF MCALLEN TO JUST SOUTH
OF EDINBURG EXTENDING NE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...AND IS
PROG TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WAA JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY 925MB
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS PROVIDING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...A 100KT H25 JET STREAK IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT NORTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PROG TO BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THIS
EVENING AT THE 295K LEVEL AND THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES. DESPITE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID AS A RATHER STOUT WARM LAYER FROM H9 TO H8 IS PROG TO WARM
FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SHOULD NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES WHILE FARTHER EAST TEMPS
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THEN HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR SATURDAY REGARDING
HANDLING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM AND TTU WRF KEEP THE
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ALONG WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
NAM AND TTU FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION NEEDED FOR A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS NE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TROUGH SLIDES INLAND FARTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...BUT
SOUTHERLY WAA INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AND RESULT IN LOWER POPS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS DEVELOP AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. (IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS LIKELY.) THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.) THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A STG UPPER JET STREAK WHICH
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS. BASED ON GFS
DETERMINISTIC CLOUD COVER WL PERSIST AFTER FROPA OWING TO MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.MARINE...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND PEAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          44  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            37  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             46  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          51  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           37  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        48  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 272156
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
356 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON POSITIONING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH AND ANY LITTLE VARIATION OF FORECAST POSITIONING COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA WEATHER. AS OF
WRITING...MSAS ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF MCALLEN TO JUST SOUTH
OF EDINBURG EXTENDING NE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...AND IS
PROG TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WAA JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY 925MB
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS PROVIDING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...A 100KT H25 JET STREAK IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT NORTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PROG TO BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THIS
EVENING AT THE 295K LEVEL AND THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES. DESPITE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID AS A RATHER STOUT WARM LAYER FROM H9 TO H8 IS PROG TO WARM
FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SHOULD NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES WHILE FARTHER EAST TEMPS
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THEN HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR SATURDAY REGARDING
HANDLING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM AND TTU WRF KEEP THE
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ALONG WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
NAM AND TTU FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION NEEDED FOR A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS NE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TROUGH SLIDES INLAND FARTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...BUT
SOUTHERLY WAA INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AND RESULT IN LOWER POPS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS DEVELOP AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. (IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS LIKELY.) THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.) THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A STG UPPER JET STREAK WHICH
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS. BASED ON GFS
DETERMINISTIC CLOUD COVER WL PERSIST AFTER FROPA OWING TO MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.MARINE...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND PEAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          44  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            37  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             46  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          51  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           37  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        48  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271749 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

&&

.AVIATION...GRADUALLY DETERIORATING FLIGHT RULES THRU THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. KVCT XPCTD TO HAVE BEST
FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN GRADUALLY LOWERING TO LOW END MVFR BY THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING THRU THE NIGHT. -RA POSSIBLE SAT MRNG AT KVCT WITH CIGS
FALLING TO IFR LEVELS. -RA/DZ XPCTD TO DVLP ACROSS KCRP/KLRD/KALI
THIS AFTN AND PERSIST THRU TONIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT /MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTN/.
VSBYS ALSO XPCTD TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS TONIGHT/SAT MRNG.
PRECIP XPCTD TO END AT KLRD SAT MRNG BUT MAY PERSIST THRU THE MRNG
AT KCRP/KALI. KLRD TO HAVE ENERLY SFC WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN
BCMG MORE NRLY TONIGHT/SAT MRNG. ENERLY WINDS AT KCRP/KVCT 15 TO
25 KTS BCMG MORE ERLY TONIGHT. KALI TO HAVE ENERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS BCMG MORE NRLY SAT MRNG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          49  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            44  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             49  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          51  51  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           43  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       53  53  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 271749 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

&&

.AVIATION...GRADUALLY DETERIORATING FLIGHT RULES THRU THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. KVCT XPCTD TO HAVE BEST
FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN GRADUALLY LOWERING TO LOW END MVFR BY THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING THRU THE NIGHT. -RA POSSIBLE SAT MRNG AT KVCT WITH CIGS
FALLING TO IFR LEVELS. -RA/DZ XPCTD TO DVLP ACROSS KCRP/KLRD/KALI
THIS AFTN AND PERSIST THRU TONIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT /MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTN/.
VSBYS ALSO XPCTD TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS TONIGHT/SAT MRNG.
PRECIP XPCTD TO END AT KLRD SAT MRNG BUT MAY PERSIST THRU THE MRNG
AT KCRP/KALI. KLRD TO HAVE ENERLY SFC WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN
BCMG MORE NRLY TONIGHT/SAT MRNG. ENERLY WINDS AT KCRP/KVCT 15 TO
25 KTS BCMG MORE ERLY TONIGHT. KALI TO HAVE ENERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS BCMG MORE NRLY SAT MRNG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          49  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            44  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             49  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          51  51  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           43  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       53  53  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271749 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

&&

.AVIATION...GRADUALLY DETERIORATING FLIGHT RULES THRU THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. KVCT XPCTD TO HAVE BEST
FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN GRADUALLY LOWERING TO LOW END MVFR BY THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING THRU THE NIGHT. -RA POSSIBLE SAT MRNG AT KVCT WITH CIGS
FALLING TO IFR LEVELS. -RA/DZ XPCTD TO DVLP ACROSS KCRP/KLRD/KALI
THIS AFTN AND PERSIST THRU TONIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT /MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTN/.
VSBYS ALSO XPCTD TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS TONIGHT/SAT MRNG.
PRECIP XPCTD TO END AT KLRD SAT MRNG BUT MAY PERSIST THRU THE MRNG
AT KCRP/KALI. KLRD TO HAVE ENERLY SFC WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN
BCMG MORE NRLY TONIGHT/SAT MRNG. ENERLY WINDS AT KCRP/KVCT 15 TO
25 KTS BCMG MORE ERLY TONIGHT. KALI TO HAVE ENERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS BCMG MORE NRLY SAT MRNG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          49  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            44  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             49  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          51  51  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           43  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       53  53  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271749 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

&&

.AVIATION...GRADUALLY DETERIORATING FLIGHT RULES THRU THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. KVCT XPCTD TO HAVE BEST
FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN GRADUALLY LOWERING TO LOW END MVFR BY THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING THRU THE NIGHT. -RA POSSIBLE SAT MRNG AT KVCT WITH CIGS
FALLING TO IFR LEVELS. -RA/DZ XPCTD TO DVLP ACROSS KCRP/KLRD/KALI
THIS AFTN AND PERSIST THRU TONIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT /MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTN/.
VSBYS ALSO XPCTD TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS TONIGHT/SAT MRNG.
PRECIP XPCTD TO END AT KLRD SAT MRNG BUT MAY PERSIST THRU THE MRNG
AT KCRP/KALI. KLRD TO HAVE ENERLY SFC WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN
BCMG MORE NRLY TONIGHT/SAT MRNG. ENERLY WINDS AT KCRP/KVCT 15 TO
25 KTS BCMG MORE ERLY TONIGHT. KALI TO HAVE ENERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS BCMG MORE NRLY SAT MRNG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          49  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            44  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             49  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          51  51  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           43  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       53  53  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 271641 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1041 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE BIT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY /ESPECIALLY WESTERN HALF OF CWA/. THICK CLOUD
SHIELD ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WARMING TODAY. FARTHER EAST...SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER AND
WIND OFF THE GULF SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH/BRIEFLY EXCEED 50
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          49  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            44  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             49  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          51  51  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           43  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       53  53  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271641 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1041 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE BIT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY /ESPECIALLY WESTERN HALF OF CWA/. THICK CLOUD
SHIELD ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WARMING TODAY. FARTHER EAST...SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER AND
WIND OFF THE GULF SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH/BRIEFLY EXCEED 50
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          49  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            44  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             49  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          51  51  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           43  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       53  53  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 271641 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1041 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE BIT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY /ESPECIALLY WESTERN HALF OF CWA/. THICK CLOUD
SHIELD ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WARMING TODAY. FARTHER EAST...SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER AND
WIND OFF THE GULF SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH/BRIEFLY EXCEED 50
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          49  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            44  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             49  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          51  51  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           43  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       53  53  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 271641 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1041 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE BIT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY /ESPECIALLY WESTERN HALF OF CWA/. THICK CLOUD
SHIELD ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WARMING TODAY. FARTHER EAST...SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER AND
WIND OFF THE GULF SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH/BRIEFLY EXCEED 50
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          49  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            44  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             49  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          51  51  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           43  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        51  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       53  53  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271450 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
850 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE
AREAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE PROG TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS/STRENGTHENS. ALSO
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY A CATEGORY FOR ALL AREAS GIVEN OVERCAST
SKIES. FINALLY...ISSUED A RIP CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ST JOSEPHS
ISLAND SOUTHWARD TO PADRE ISLAND NATL SEASHORE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AT AREA BEACHES THIS
MORNING...THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
BY LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SWELL WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUES GIVEN ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDES. EVEN IF TIDES RUN 1 FOOT
ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 2 FT
MSL. CAVEAT IS IF SWELLS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SURGE WATER INTO
THE DUNES...BUT AT THIS TIME THAT CHANCE IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST
SITES AS AN OVERRUNING PATTERN SETS UP OVER SOUTH TEXAS. VCT TAF
SITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
COULD SEE VFR CIGS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. VCT DECREASES TO
MVFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHILE OTHER SITES LIKELY IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
FOR CRP SITE...BUT CHANCE IS LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS A COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TODAY. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATION OF THE TROUGH SO FAR EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS
TROUGH DEVELOPS IT WILL LEAD TO AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION. PWAT VALUES LOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL START TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
INLAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SPREAD INLAND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TODAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT WITH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPS WILL NOT
COOL MUCH TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...SHIFTING BEST RAIN CHANCES TO ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION NORTHWARD SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUING A SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH
THIS TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING POPS SUNDAY. H85
TEMPS WARM WITH FLOW COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THIS...CHANCES FOR
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE FURTHER DRYING OCCURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PEAKING INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EAST...TO UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST.

BY TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY. THIS WILL
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO
INCREASED ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR LAGGING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          51  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            46  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             51  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          52  52  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           45  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        53  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       54  54  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79







000
FXUS64 KCRP 271450 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
850 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE
AREAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE PROG TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS/STRENGTHENS. ALSO
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY A CATEGORY FOR ALL AREAS GIVEN OVERCAST
SKIES. FINALLY...ISSUED A RIP CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ST JOSEPHS
ISLAND SOUTHWARD TO PADRE ISLAND NATL SEASHORE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AT AREA BEACHES THIS
MORNING...THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
BY LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SWELL WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUES GIVEN ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDES. EVEN IF TIDES RUN 1 FOOT
ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 2 FT
MSL. CAVEAT IS IF SWELLS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SURGE WATER INTO
THE DUNES...BUT AT THIS TIME THAT CHANCE IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST
SITES AS AN OVERRUNING PATTERN SETS UP OVER SOUTH TEXAS. VCT TAF
SITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
COULD SEE VFR CIGS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. VCT DECREASES TO
MVFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHILE OTHER SITES LIKELY IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
FOR CRP SITE...BUT CHANCE IS LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS A COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TODAY. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATION OF THE TROUGH SO FAR EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS
TROUGH DEVELOPS IT WILL LEAD TO AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION. PWAT VALUES LOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL START TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
INLAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SPREAD INLAND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TODAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT WITH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPS WILL NOT
COOL MUCH TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...SHIFTING BEST RAIN CHANCES TO ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION NORTHWARD SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUING A SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH
THIS TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING POPS SUNDAY. H85
TEMPS WARM WITH FLOW COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THIS...CHANCES FOR
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE FURTHER DRYING OCCURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PEAKING INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EAST...TO UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST.

BY TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY. THIS WILL
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO
INCREASED ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR LAGGING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          51  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            46  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             51  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          52  52  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           45  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        53  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       54  54  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271128
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
528 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST
SITES AS AN OVERRUNING PATTERN SETS UP OVER SOUTH TEXAS. VCT TAF
SITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
COULD SEE VFR CIGS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. VCT DECREASES TO
MVFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHILE OTHER SITES LIKELY IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
FOR CRP SITE...BUT CHANCE IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS A COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TODAY. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATION OF THE TROUGH SO FAR EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS
TROUGH DEVELOPS IT WILL LEAD TO AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION. PWAT VALUES LOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL START TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
INLAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SPREAD INLAND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TODAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT WITH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPS WILL NOT
COOL MUCH TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...SHIFTING BEST RAIN CHANCES TO ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION NORTHWARD SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUING A SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH
THIS TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING POPS SUNDAY. H85
TEMPS WARM WITH FLOW COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THIS...CHANCES FOR
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE FURTHER DRYING OCCURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PEAKING INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EAST...TO UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST.

BY TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY. THIS WILL
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO
INCREASED ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR LAGGING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          51  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            46  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             51  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          52  52  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           45  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        53  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       54  54  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 271128
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
528 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST
SITES AS AN OVERRUNING PATTERN SETS UP OVER SOUTH TEXAS. VCT TAF
SITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
COULD SEE VFR CIGS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. VCT DECREASES TO
MVFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHILE OTHER SITES LIKELY IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
FOR CRP SITE...BUT CHANCE IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS A COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TODAY. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATION OF THE TROUGH SO FAR EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS
TROUGH DEVELOPS IT WILL LEAD TO AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION. PWAT VALUES LOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL START TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
INLAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SPREAD INLAND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TODAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT WITH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPS WILL NOT
COOL MUCH TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...SHIFTING BEST RAIN CHANCES TO ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION NORTHWARD SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUING A SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH
THIS TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING POPS SUNDAY. H85
TEMPS WARM WITH FLOW COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THIS...CHANCES FOR
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE FURTHER DRYING OCCURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PEAKING INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EAST...TO UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST.

BY TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY. THIS WILL
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO
INCREASED ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR LAGGING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          51  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            46  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             51  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          52  52  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           45  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        53  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       54  54  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 270952
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
352 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS A COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TODAY. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATION OF THE TROUGH SO FAR EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS
TROUGH DEVELOPS IT WILL LEAD TO AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION. PWAT VALUES LOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL START TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
INLAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SPREAD INLAND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TODAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT WITH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPS WILL NOT
COOL MUCH TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...SHIFTING BEST RAIN CHANCES TO ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION NORTHWARD SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUING A SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH
THIS TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING POPS SUNDAY. H85
TEMPS WARM WITH FLOW COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THIS...CHANCES FOR
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE FURTHER DRYING OCCURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PEAKING INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EAST...TO UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST.

BY TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY. THIS WILL
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO
INCREASED ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR LAGGING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          51  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            46  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             51  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          52  52  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           45  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        53  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       54  54  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 270952
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
352 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS A COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TODAY. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATION OF THE TROUGH SO FAR EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS
TROUGH DEVELOPS IT WILL LEAD TO AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION. PWAT VALUES LOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL START TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
INLAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SPREAD INLAND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TODAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT WITH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPS WILL NOT
COOL MUCH TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...SHIFTING BEST RAIN CHANCES TO ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION NORTHWARD SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUING A SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH
THIS TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING POPS SUNDAY. H85
TEMPS WARM WITH FLOW COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THIS...CHANCES FOR
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE FURTHER DRYING OCCURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PEAKING INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EAST...TO UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST.

BY TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY. THIS WILL
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO
INCREASED ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR LAGGING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          51  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            46  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             51  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          52  52  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           45  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        53  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       54  54  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270457
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1057 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW FOLLOWING BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CRITERIA
AS LOW CLOUD DECK BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS CRP/ALI/LRD THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIFTING AT VCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
LRD/ALI/CRP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NE WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO ENE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  40  53  51  65  /   0  10  30  60  50
VICTORIA          61  33  50  43  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
LAREDO            75  40  43  43  59  /   0  10  30  50  30
ALICE             70  38  50  48  64  /   0  10  30  60  40
ROCKPORT          65  42  53  51  65  /   0  10  20  50  50
COTULLA           72  38  43  41  54  /   0  10  30  50  30
KINGSVILLE        67  40  53  52  66  /   0  10  30  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       63  46  54  54  65  /   0  10  30  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 270457
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1057 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW FOLLOWING BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CRITERIA
AS LOW CLOUD DECK BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS CRP/ALI/LRD THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIFTING AT VCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
LRD/ALI/CRP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NE WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO ENE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  40  53  51  65  /   0  10  30  60  50
VICTORIA          61  33  50  43  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
LAREDO            75  40  43  43  59  /   0  10  30  50  30
ALICE             70  38  50  48  64  /   0  10  30  60  40
ROCKPORT          65  42  53  51  65  /   0  10  20  50  50
COTULLA           72  38  43  41  54  /   0  10  30  50  30
KINGSVILLE        67  40  53  52  66  /   0  10  30  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       63  46  54  54  65  /   0  10  30  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270457
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1057 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW FOLLOWING BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CRITERIA
AS LOW CLOUD DECK BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS CRP/ALI/LRD THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIFTING AT VCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
LRD/ALI/CRP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NE WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO ENE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  40  53  51  65  /   0  10  30  60  50
VICTORIA          61  33  50  43  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
LAREDO            75  40  43  43  59  /   0  10  30  50  30
ALICE             70  38  50  48  64  /   0  10  30  60  40
ROCKPORT          65  42  53  51  65  /   0  10  20  50  50
COTULLA           72  38  43  41  54  /   0  10  30  50  30
KINGSVILLE        67  40  53  52  66  /   0  10  30  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       63  46  54  54  65  /   0  10  30  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 270457
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1057 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW FOLLOWING BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CRITERIA
AS LOW CLOUD DECK BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS CRP/ALI/LRD THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIFTING AT VCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
LRD/ALI/CRP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NE WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO ENE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  40  53  51  65  /   0  10  30  60  50
VICTORIA          61  33  50  43  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
LAREDO            75  40  43  43  59  /   0  10  30  50  30
ALICE             70  38  50  48  64  /   0  10  30  60  40
ROCKPORT          65  42  53  51  65  /   0  10  20  50  50
COTULLA           72  38  43  41  54  /   0  10  30  50  30
KINGSVILLE        67  40  53  52  66  /   0  10  30  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       63  46  54  54  65  /   0  10  30  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270202
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
802 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST OBS AND MSAS ANALYSIS...A COLD FRONT
IS NOSING INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AM STILL EXPECTING A COASTAL TROUGH TO DVLP OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DVLPG BY FRI LEADING TO AN
INCREASINGLY WET AND CHILLY DAY FOR FRIDAY. AS FOR WINDS ACROSS
THE BAYS...SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT CAUTION LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE
SCA FOR THE BAYS TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM CST. WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR AND
OFFSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS DUE TO
THE DVLPG COASTAL TROUGH OVERNIGHT/FRI. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE LATE MORNING
WILL TRANSITION MORE TO A ENE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THICK MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH REST OF THE DAY
FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOPE YOU ENJOYED
TODAY/S WEATHER AS CONDITIONS WILL BECOME COLD AND DREARY AGAIN
TO END THE WORK WEEK. A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND IS SET TO BUILD INTO
SOUTH TEXAS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME
MORE NNE BY MID/LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD/SHALLOW
AIRMASS OVERTAKES THE REGION. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS /30S TO AROUND 40/ AS CAA OCCURS AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASES. WAA OVER THE COLD/SHALLOW AIRMASS IS PROG TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT/RAIN
DRIZZLE /MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/. GREATEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
/AND GREATEST MOISTURE VALUES/ PROG TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AND THUS HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SAID AREA. MAX TEMPS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE APPROX 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY /WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S ALL DAY/. CLOSER TO THE COAST...ENE
SURFACE WINDS MAY HELP MODIFY THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY /TEMPS AROUND
50 INSTEAD OF 40S/. WAA JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES FURTHER
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING OCCURS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. TROUGH MAY SHIFT INLAND JUST ENOUGH ACROSS SE AREAS
FRI NIGHT TO ALLOW TEMPS THERE TO WARM A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND THUS I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FOR SE COUNTIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERIST MUCH OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF CWA.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS/
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC THAT A COASTAL TROUGH WL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
(UPPER JET DYNAMICS ADDS CONFIDENCE) WL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR PCPN. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS MOVE THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE
CWA/MSA BY LATE SUNDAY THUS DECREASING THE CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE
SOLNS DEVELOP/MOVE A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WRN CONUS
SUNDAY/MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. (ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE MSA TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW.) ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CWA MONDAY OWING IN PART TO INCREASING MSTR (ECWMF
DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES.) ANTICIPATE THAT UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS FOR
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. AREA BAYS
SHOULD HAVE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING WHILE
NEAR/OFFSHORE WATER WIND SPEEDS REMAIN STRONG. COLD AIRMASS SET TO
RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MISERABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    40  53  51  65  57  /  10  30  60  50  40
VICTORIA          33  50  43  57  52  /  10  10  20  40  40
LAREDO            40  43  43  59  52  /  10  30  50  30  20
ALICE             38  50  48  64  57  /  10  30  60  40  40
ROCKPORT          42  53  51  65  58  /  10  20  50  50  40
COTULLA           38  43  41  54  50  /  10  30  50  30  30
KINGSVILLE        40  53  52  66  58  /  10  30  60  40  40
NAVY CORPUS       46  54  54  65  58  /  10  30  60  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 270202
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
802 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST OBS AND MSAS ANALYSIS...A COLD FRONT
IS NOSING INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AM STILL EXPECTING A COASTAL TROUGH TO DVLP OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DVLPG BY FRI LEADING TO AN
INCREASINGLY WET AND CHILLY DAY FOR FRIDAY. AS FOR WINDS ACROSS
THE BAYS...SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT CAUTION LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE
SCA FOR THE BAYS TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM CST. WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR AND
OFFSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS DUE TO
THE DVLPG COASTAL TROUGH OVERNIGHT/FRI. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE LATE MORNING
WILL TRANSITION MORE TO A ENE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THICK MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH REST OF THE DAY
FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOPE YOU ENJOYED
TODAY/S WEATHER AS CONDITIONS WILL BECOME COLD AND DREARY AGAIN
TO END THE WORK WEEK. A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND IS SET TO BUILD INTO
SOUTH TEXAS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME
MORE NNE BY MID/LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD/SHALLOW
AIRMASS OVERTAKES THE REGION. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS /30S TO AROUND 40/ AS CAA OCCURS AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASES. WAA OVER THE COLD/SHALLOW AIRMASS IS PROG TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT/RAIN
DRIZZLE /MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/. GREATEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
/AND GREATEST MOISTURE VALUES/ PROG TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AND THUS HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SAID AREA. MAX TEMPS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE APPROX 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY /WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S ALL DAY/. CLOSER TO THE COAST...ENE
SURFACE WINDS MAY HELP MODIFY THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY /TEMPS AROUND
50 INSTEAD OF 40S/. WAA JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES FURTHER
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING OCCURS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. TROUGH MAY SHIFT INLAND JUST ENOUGH ACROSS SE AREAS
FRI NIGHT TO ALLOW TEMPS THERE TO WARM A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND THUS I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FOR SE COUNTIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERIST MUCH OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF CWA.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS/
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC THAT A COASTAL TROUGH WL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
(UPPER JET DYNAMICS ADDS CONFIDENCE) WL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR PCPN. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS MOVE THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE
CWA/MSA BY LATE SUNDAY THUS DECREASING THE CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE
SOLNS DEVELOP/MOVE A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WRN CONUS
SUNDAY/MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. (ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE MSA TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW.) ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CWA MONDAY OWING IN PART TO INCREASING MSTR (ECWMF
DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES.) ANTICIPATE THAT UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS FOR
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. AREA BAYS
SHOULD HAVE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING WHILE
NEAR/OFFSHORE WATER WIND SPEEDS REMAIN STRONG. COLD AIRMASS SET TO
RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MISERABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    40  53  51  65  57  /  10  30  60  50  40
VICTORIA          33  50  43  57  52  /  10  10  20  40  40
LAREDO            40  43  43  59  52  /  10  30  50  30  20
ALICE             38  50  48  64  57  /  10  30  60  40  40
ROCKPORT          42  53  51  65  58  /  10  20  50  50  40
COTULLA           38  43  41  54  50  /  10  30  50  30  30
KINGSVILLE        40  53  52  66  58  /  10  30  60  40  40
NAVY CORPUS       46  54  54  65  58  /  10  30  60  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270003
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
603 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE LATE MORNING
WILL TRANSITION MORE TO A ENE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THICK MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH REST OF THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOPE YOU ENJOYED
TODAY/S WEATHER AS CONDITIONS WILL BECOME COLD AND DREARY AGAIN
TO END THE WORK WEEK. A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND IS SET TO BUILD INTO
SOUTH TEXAS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME
MORE NNE BY MID/LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD/SHALLOW
AIRMASS OVERTAKES THE REGION. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS /30S TO AROUND 40/ AS CAA OCCURS AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASES. WAA OVER THE COLD/SHALLOW AIRMASS IS PROG TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT/RAIN
DRIZZLE /MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/. GREATEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
/AND GREATEST MOISTURE VALUES/ PROG TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AND THUS HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SAID AREA. MAX TEMPS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE APPROX 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY /WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S ALL DAY/. CLOSER TO THE COAST...ENE
SURFACE WINDS MAY HELP MODIFY THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY /TEMPS AROUND
50 INSTEAD OF 40S/. WAA JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES FURTHER
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING OCCURS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. TROUGH MAY SHIFT INLAND JUST ENOUGH ACROSS SE AREAS
FRI NIGHT TO ALLOW TEMPS THERE TO WARM A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND THUS I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FOR SE COUNTIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERIST MUCH OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF CWA.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS/
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC THAT A COASTAL TROUGH WL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
(UPPER JET DYNAMICS ADDS CONFIDENCE) WL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR PCPN. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS MOVE THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE
CWA/MSA BY LATE SUNDAY THUS DECREASING THE CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE
SOLNS DEVELOP/MOVE A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WRN CONUS
SUNDAY/MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. (ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE MSA TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW.) ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CWA MONDAY OWING IN PART TO INCREASING MSTR (ECWMF
DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES.) ANTICIPATE THAT UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS FOR
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. AREA BAYS
SHOULD HAVE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING WHILE
NEAR/OFFSHORE WATER WIND SPEEDS REMAIN STRONG. COLD AIRMASS SET TO
RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MISERABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    40  53  51  65  57  /  10  30  60  50  40
VICTORIA          33  50  43  57  52  /  10  10  20  40  40
LAREDO            40  43  43  59  52  /  10  30  50  30  20
ALICE             38  50  48  64  57  /  10  30  60  40  40
ROCKPORT          42  53  51  65  58  /  10  20  50  50  40
COTULLA           38  43  41  54  50  /  10  30  50  30  30
KINGSVILLE        40  53  52  66  58  /  10  30  60  40  40
NAVY CORPUS       46  54  54  65  58  /  10  30  60  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270003
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
603 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE LATE MORNING
WILL TRANSITION MORE TO A ENE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THICK MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH REST OF THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOPE YOU ENJOYED
TODAY/S WEATHER AS CONDITIONS WILL BECOME COLD AND DREARY AGAIN
TO END THE WORK WEEK. A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND IS SET TO BUILD INTO
SOUTH TEXAS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME
MORE NNE BY MID/LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD/SHALLOW
AIRMASS OVERTAKES THE REGION. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS /30S TO AROUND 40/ AS CAA OCCURS AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASES. WAA OVER THE COLD/SHALLOW AIRMASS IS PROG TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT/RAIN
DRIZZLE /MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/. GREATEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
/AND GREATEST MOISTURE VALUES/ PROG TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AND THUS HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SAID AREA. MAX TEMPS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE APPROX 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY /WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S ALL DAY/. CLOSER TO THE COAST...ENE
SURFACE WINDS MAY HELP MODIFY THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY /TEMPS AROUND
50 INSTEAD OF 40S/. WAA JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES FURTHER
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING OCCURS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. TROUGH MAY SHIFT INLAND JUST ENOUGH ACROSS SE AREAS
FRI NIGHT TO ALLOW TEMPS THERE TO WARM A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND THUS I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FOR SE COUNTIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERIST MUCH OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF CWA.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS/
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC THAT A COASTAL TROUGH WL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
(UPPER JET DYNAMICS ADDS CONFIDENCE) WL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR PCPN. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS MOVE THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE
CWA/MSA BY LATE SUNDAY THUS DECREASING THE CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE
SOLNS DEVELOP/MOVE A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WRN CONUS
SUNDAY/MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. (ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE MSA TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW.) ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CWA MONDAY OWING IN PART TO INCREASING MSTR (ECWMF
DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES.) ANTICIPATE THAT UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS FOR
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. AREA BAYS
SHOULD HAVE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING WHILE
NEAR/OFFSHORE WATER WIND SPEEDS REMAIN STRONG. COLD AIRMASS SET TO
RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MISERABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    40  53  51  65  57  /  10  30  60  50  40
VICTORIA          33  50  43  57  52  /  10  10  20  40  40
LAREDO            40  43  43  59  52  /  10  30  50  30  20
ALICE             38  50  48  64  57  /  10  30  60  40  40
ROCKPORT          42  53  51  65  58  /  10  20  50  50  40
COTULLA           38  43  41  54  50  /  10  30  50  30  30
KINGSVILLE        40  53  52  66  58  /  10  30  60  40  40
NAVY CORPUS       46  54  54  65  58  /  10  30  60  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






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