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000
FXUS64 KCRP 310328 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
928 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY REACHED OR FALLEN BELOW PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST MIN TEMPS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE LEVELING OFF STRATUS
CONTINUES DEVELOPING/SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS MAY RISE
A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WAA INCREASES. LOWERED POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND INDUCED BY DEVELOPING
LLJ. FARTHER EAST...SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO
LOWERED POPS FOR MOST OF SATURDAY /THOUGH INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/ AS BEST MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
DO NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS FOR LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF
THE AREA GIVEN EXPECTED LLJ. NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WINDY DAY WILL BE LLVL CLOUD DECK LIMITING AMOUNT OF
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE LLJ TO THE SURFACE...BUT NEVERTHELESS IT
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER PRIMARILY THE
COASTAL PLAINS. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY GIVEN WAA
AND LESS DAYTIME PRECIP. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A POWERFUL WIND FIELD OCCURRING
AFTER FROPA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER MARINE AREAS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY WITH
GALE CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOMETHING FOR FUTURE
SHIFTS TO TAKE A LOOK AT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  72  59  72  47  /  10  20  50  40  30
VICTORIA          49  69  57  68  42  /  10  20  50  50  20
LAREDO            58  74  58  73  48  /  20  50  50  30  30
ALICE             56  74  58  73  47  /  10  20  60  40  30
ROCKPORT          56  69  60  64  47  /  10  10  50  40  30
COTULLA           52  70  56  70  44  /  20  50  50  30  20
KINGSVILLE        57  74  59  74  48  /  10  20  50  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  65  49  /  10  10  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79







000
FXUS64 KCRP 310328 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
928 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY REACHED OR FALLEN BELOW PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST MIN TEMPS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE LEVELING OFF STRATUS
CONTINUES DEVELOPING/SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS MAY RISE
A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WAA INCREASES. LOWERED POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND INDUCED BY DEVELOPING
LLJ. FARTHER EAST...SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO
LOWERED POPS FOR MOST OF SATURDAY /THOUGH INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/ AS BEST MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
DO NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS FOR LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF
THE AREA GIVEN EXPECTED LLJ. NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WINDY DAY WILL BE LLVL CLOUD DECK LIMITING AMOUNT OF
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE LLJ TO THE SURFACE...BUT NEVERTHELESS IT
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER PRIMARILY THE
COASTAL PLAINS. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY GIVEN WAA
AND LESS DAYTIME PRECIP. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A POWERFUL WIND FIELD OCCURRING
AFTER FROPA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER MARINE AREAS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY WITH
GALE CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOMETHING FOR FUTURE
SHIFTS TO TAKE A LOOK AT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  72  59  72  47  /  10  20  50  40  30
VICTORIA          49  69  57  68  42  /  10  20  50  50  20
LAREDO            58  74  58  73  48  /  20  50  50  30  30
ALICE             56  74  58  73  47  /  10  20  60  40  30
ROCKPORT          56  69  60  64  47  /  10  10  50  40  30
COTULLA           52  70  56  70  44  /  20  50  50  30  20
KINGSVILLE        57  74  59  74  48  /  10  20  50  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  65  49  /  10  10  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79








000
FXUS64 KCRP 310326 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
926 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY REACHED OR FALLEN BELOW PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST MIN TEMPS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE LEVELING OFF STRATUS
CONTINUES DEVELOPING/SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS MAY RISE
A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WAA INCREASES. LOWERED POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND INDUCED BY DEVELOPING
LLJ. FARTHER EAST...SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO
LOWERED POPS FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS BEST MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
DO NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS FOR LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF
THE AREA GIVEN EXPECTED LLJ. NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WINDY DAY WILL BE LLVL CLOUD DECK LIMITING AMOUNT OF
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE LLJ TO THE SURFACE...BUT NEVERTHELESS IT
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER PRIMARILY THE
COASTAL PLAINS. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY GIVEN WAA
AND LESS DAYTIME PRECIP. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A POWERFUL WIND FIELD OCCURRING
AFTER FROPA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER MARINE AREAS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY WITH
GALE CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOMETHING FOR FUTURE
SHIFTS TO TAKE A LOOK AT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  72  59  72  47  /  10  20  50  40  30
VICTORIA          49  69  57  68  42  /  10  20  50  50  20
LAREDO            58  74  58  73  48  /  20  50  50  30  30
ALICE             56  74  58  73  47  /  10  20  60  40  30
ROCKPORT          56  69  60  64  47  /  10  10  50  40  30
COTULLA           52  70  56  70  44  /  20  50  50  30  20
KINGSVILLE        57  74  59  74  48  /  10  20  50  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  65  49  /  10  10  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 310326 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
926 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY REACHED OR FALLEN BELOW PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST MIN TEMPS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE LEVELING OFF STRATUS
CONTINUES DEVELOPING/SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS MAY RISE
A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WAA INCREASES. LOWERED POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND INDUCED BY DEVELOPING
LLJ. FARTHER EAST...SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO
LOWERED POPS FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS BEST MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
DO NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS FOR LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF
THE AREA GIVEN EXPECTED LLJ. NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WINDY DAY WILL BE LLVL CLOUD DECK LIMITING AMOUNT OF
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE LLJ TO THE SURFACE...BUT NEVERTHELESS IT
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER PRIMARILY THE
COASTAL PLAINS. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY GIVEN WAA
AND LESS DAYTIME PRECIP. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A POWERFUL WIND FIELD OCCURRING
AFTER FROPA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER MARINE AREAS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY WITH
GALE CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOMETHING FOR FUTURE
SHIFTS TO TAKE A LOOK AT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  72  59  72  47  /  10  20  50  40  30
VICTORIA          49  69  57  68  42  /  10  20  50  50  20
LAREDO            58  74  58  73  48  /  20  50  50  30  30
ALICE             56  74  58  73  47  /  10  20  60  40  30
ROCKPORT          56  69  60  64  47  /  10  10  50  40  30
COTULLA           52  70  56  70  44  /  20  50  50  30  20
KINGSVILLE        57  74  59  74  48  /  10  20  50  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  65  49  /  10  10  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 302350 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
550 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWER CLOUD LAYER OVER THE GULF MUCH OF THE DAY HAS MOVED
INTO THE COASTAL BEND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERED
TO MORE EASTERLY. EXPECT LOWER END MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WESTWARD AND REACH LRD AROUND 04Z. IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE MVFR CIGS REACHING VCT AREA
AROUND 09Z. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD FROM 09-10Z UNTIL 15-16Z WHEN
IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL BEND INTO THE
SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEST LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF A
LAREDO TO BEEVILLE LINE SATURDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT/IMPROVE TO AROUND 2500 FEET OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO PART OF THE EVENING. LATEST RAP AND NAM
GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TO JUSTIFY A SCA. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AS
CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR BELOW PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MINS.
NO OTHER CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS ON AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. PWATS NOW BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.2 INCHES OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS STILL CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LAYERS AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO
MOISTEN. THIS IS THE REASON CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ANTICIPATED
TODAY...JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN MEXICO OVERCAST SKIES ARE NOTED
ON VIS SATELLITE...BUT AS THEY HAVE TRIED TO PUSH EASTWARD...MUCH
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED. STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TOMORROW. SOME MODELS DO INDICATE CLEARING FOR EASTERN COUNTIES
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CLOUDY SOLUTIONS.
RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD...HAVE SLOWED POP
INCREASES A BIT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
MAINLY IN WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND NOSE OF UPPER JET INCHES IN. THIS PERIOD IS
WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE NOTED...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT MAINLY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
CLOUD COVER KEEPING MIN TEMPS INTO THE 50S BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. THINK HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THAT
AN UPPER SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COLD FRONT ACRS THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES (GFS DETERMINISTIC)...AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS (GFS
DETERMINISTIC) TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MSA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
AFTER FROPA. ANTICIPATE THAT PCPN WL CONTINUE AFTER FROPA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE GFS/ECMWF PROG ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM MOVG ACRS THE NRN MEXICO AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SOLNS
SUGGEST PCPN WL END TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. WL COMPROMISE WITH
PCPN REMAINING OVER THE EXTREME ERN CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER...AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
PROG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW DRG
THAT TIME. NO PCPN EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  68  59  72  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
VICTORIA          49  66  57  68  42  /  10  40  50  50  20
LAREDO            58  71  58  73  48  /  30  40  50  30  30
ALICE             56  70  58  73  47  /  10  40  50  40  30
ROCKPORT          56  64  60  64  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
COTULLA           52  68  56  70  44  /  30  60  40  30  20
KINGSVILLE        57  70  59  74  48  /  10  30  40  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       56  65  60  65  49  /  10  30  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 302350 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
550 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWER CLOUD LAYER OVER THE GULF MUCH OF THE DAY HAS MOVED
INTO THE COASTAL BEND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERED
TO MORE EASTERLY. EXPECT LOWER END MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WESTWARD AND REACH LRD AROUND 04Z. IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE MVFR CIGS REACHING VCT AREA
AROUND 09Z. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD FROM 09-10Z UNTIL 15-16Z WHEN
IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL BEND INTO THE
SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEST LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF A
LAREDO TO BEEVILLE LINE SATURDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT/IMPROVE TO AROUND 2500 FEET OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO PART OF THE EVENING. LATEST RAP AND NAM
GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TO JUSTIFY A SCA. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AS
CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR BELOW PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MINS.
NO OTHER CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS ON AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. PWATS NOW BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.2 INCHES OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS STILL CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LAYERS AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO
MOISTEN. THIS IS THE REASON CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ANTICIPATED
TODAY...JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN MEXICO OVERCAST SKIES ARE NOTED
ON VIS SATELLITE...BUT AS THEY HAVE TRIED TO PUSH EASTWARD...MUCH
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED. STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TOMORROW. SOME MODELS DO INDICATE CLEARING FOR EASTERN COUNTIES
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CLOUDY SOLUTIONS.
RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD...HAVE SLOWED POP
INCREASES A BIT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
MAINLY IN WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND NOSE OF UPPER JET INCHES IN. THIS PERIOD IS
WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE NOTED...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT MAINLY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
CLOUD COVER KEEPING MIN TEMPS INTO THE 50S BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. THINK HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THAT
AN UPPER SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COLD FRONT ACRS THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES (GFS DETERMINISTIC)...AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS (GFS
DETERMINISTIC) TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MSA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
AFTER FROPA. ANTICIPATE THAT PCPN WL CONTINUE AFTER FROPA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE GFS/ECMWF PROG ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM MOVG ACRS THE NRN MEXICO AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SOLNS
SUGGEST PCPN WL END TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. WL COMPROMISE WITH
PCPN REMAINING OVER THE EXTREME ERN CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER...AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
PROG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW DRG
THAT TIME. NO PCPN EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  68  59  72  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
VICTORIA          49  66  57  68  42  /  10  40  50  50  20
LAREDO            58  71  58  73  48  /  30  40  50  30  30
ALICE             56  70  58  73  47  /  10  40  50  40  30
ROCKPORT          56  64  60  64  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
COTULLA           52  68  56  70  44  /  30  60  40  30  20
KINGSVILLE        57  70  59  74  48  /  10  30  40  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       56  65  60  65  49  /  10  30  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 302254 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
454 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO PART OF THE EVENING. LATEST RAP AND NAM
GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TO JUSTIFY A SCA. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AS
CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR BELOW PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MINS.
NO OTHER CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS ON AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. PWATS NOW BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.2 INCHES OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS STILL CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LAYERS AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO
MOISTEN. THIS IS THE REASON CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ANTICIPATED
TODAY...JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN MEXICO OVERCAST SKIES ARE NOTED
ON VIS SATELLITE...BUT AS THEY HAVE TRIED TO PUSH EASTWARD...MUCH
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED. STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TOMORROW. SOME MODELS DO INDICATE CLEARING FOR EASTERN COUNTIES
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CLOUDY SOLUTIONS.
RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD...HAVE SLOWED POP
INCREASES A BIT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
MAINLY IN WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND NOSE OF UPPER JET INCHES IN. THIS PERIOD IS
WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE NOTED...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT MAINLY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
CLOUD COVER KEEPING MIN TEMPS INTO THE 50S BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. THINK HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THAT
AN UPPER SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COLD FRONT ACRS THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES (GFS DETERMINISTIC)...AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS (GFS
DETERMINISTIC) TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MSA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
AFTER FROPA. ANTICIPATE THAT PCPN WL CONTINUE AFTER FROPA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE GFS/ECMWF PROG ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM MOVG ACRS THE NRN MEXICO AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SOLNS
SUGGEST PCPN WL END TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. WL COMPROMISE WITH
PCPN REMAINING OVER THE EXTREME ERN CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER...AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
PROG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW DRG
THAT TIME. NO PCPN EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  68  59  72  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
VICTORIA          49  66  57  68  42  /  10  40  50  50  20
LAREDO            58  71  58  73  48  /  30  40  50  30  30
ALICE             56  70  58  73  47  /  10  40  50  40  30
ROCKPORT          56  64  60  64  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
COTULLA           52  68  56  70  44  /  30  60  40  30  20
KINGSVILLE        57  70  59  74  48  /  10  30  40  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       56  65  60  65  49  /  10  30  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 302254 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
454 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO PART OF THE EVENING. LATEST RAP AND NAM
GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TO JUSTIFY A SCA. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AS
CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR BELOW PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MINS.
NO OTHER CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS ON AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. PWATS NOW BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.2 INCHES OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS STILL CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LAYERS AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO
MOISTEN. THIS IS THE REASON CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ANTICIPATED
TODAY...JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN MEXICO OVERCAST SKIES ARE NOTED
ON VIS SATELLITE...BUT AS THEY HAVE TRIED TO PUSH EASTWARD...MUCH
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED. STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TOMORROW. SOME MODELS DO INDICATE CLEARING FOR EASTERN COUNTIES
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CLOUDY SOLUTIONS.
RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD...HAVE SLOWED POP
INCREASES A BIT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
MAINLY IN WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND NOSE OF UPPER JET INCHES IN. THIS PERIOD IS
WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE NOTED...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT MAINLY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
CLOUD COVER KEEPING MIN TEMPS INTO THE 50S BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. THINK HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THAT
AN UPPER SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COLD FRONT ACRS THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES (GFS DETERMINISTIC)...AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS (GFS
DETERMINISTIC) TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MSA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
AFTER FROPA. ANTICIPATE THAT PCPN WL CONTINUE AFTER FROPA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE GFS/ECMWF PROG ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM MOVG ACRS THE NRN MEXICO AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SOLNS
SUGGEST PCPN WL END TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. WL COMPROMISE WITH
PCPN REMAINING OVER THE EXTREME ERN CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER...AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
PROG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW DRG
THAT TIME. NO PCPN EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  68  59  72  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
VICTORIA          49  66  57  68  42  /  10  40  50  50  20
LAREDO            58  71  58  73  48  /  30  40  50  30  30
ALICE             56  70  58  73  47  /  10  40  50  40  30
ROCKPORT          56  64  60  64  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
COTULLA           52  68  56  70  44  /  30  60  40  30  20
KINGSVILLE        57  70  59  74  48  /  10  30  40  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       56  65  60  65  49  /  10  30  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 302114
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
314 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS ON AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. PWATS NOW BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.2 INCHES OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS STILL CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LAYERS AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO
MOISTEN. THIS IS THE REASON CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ANTICIPATED
TODAY...JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN MEXICO OVERCAST SKIES ARE NOTED
ON VIS SATELLITE...BUT AS THEY HAVE TRIED TO PUSH EASTWARD...MUCH
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED. STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TOMORROW. SOME MODELS DO INDICATE CLEARING FOR EASTERN COUNTIES
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CLOUDY SOLUTIONS.
RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD...HAVE SLOWED POP
INCREASES A BIT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
MAINLY IN WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND NOSE OF UPPER JET INCHES IN. THIS PERIOD IS
WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE NOTED...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT MAINLY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
CLOUD COVER KEEPING MIN TEMPS INTO THE 50S BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. THINK HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THAT
AN UPPER SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COLD FRONT ACRS THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES (GFS DETERMINISTIC)...AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS (GFS
DETERMINISTIC) TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MSA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
AFTER FROPA. ANTICIPATE THAT PCPN WL CONTINUE AFTER FROPA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE GFS/ECMWF PROG ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM MOVG ACRS THE NRN MEXICO AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SOLNS
SUGGEST PCPN WL END TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. WL COMPROMISE WITH
PCPN REMAINING OVER THE EXTREME ERN CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER...AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
PROG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW DRG
THAT TIME. NO PCPN EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  68  59  72  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
VICTORIA          49  66  57  68  42  /  10  40  50  50  20
LAREDO            58  71  58  73  48  /  30  40  50  30  30
ALICE             56  70  58  73  47  /  10  40  50  40  30
ROCKPORT          57  64  60  64  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
COTULLA           52  68  56  70  44  /  30  60  40  30  20
KINGSVILLE        57  70  59  74  48  /  10  30  40  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       57  65  60  65  49  /  10  30  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM










000
FXUS64 KCRP 302114
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
314 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS ON AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. PWATS NOW BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.2 INCHES OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS STILL CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LAYERS AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO
MOISTEN. THIS IS THE REASON CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ANTICIPATED
TODAY...JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN MEXICO OVERCAST SKIES ARE NOTED
ON VIS SATELLITE...BUT AS THEY HAVE TRIED TO PUSH EASTWARD...MUCH
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED. STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TOMORROW. SOME MODELS DO INDICATE CLEARING FOR EASTERN COUNTIES
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CLOUDY SOLUTIONS.
RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD...HAVE SLOWED POP
INCREASES A BIT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
MAINLY IN WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND NOSE OF UPPER JET INCHES IN. THIS PERIOD IS
WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE NOTED...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT MAINLY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
CLOUD COVER KEEPING MIN TEMPS INTO THE 50S BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. THINK HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THAT
AN UPPER SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COLD FRONT ACRS THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES (GFS DETERMINISTIC)...AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS (GFS
DETERMINISTIC) TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MSA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
AFTER FROPA. ANTICIPATE THAT PCPN WL CONTINUE AFTER FROPA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE GFS/ECMWF PROG ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM MOVG ACRS THE NRN MEXICO AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SOLNS
SUGGEST PCPN WL END TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. WL COMPROMISE WITH
PCPN REMAINING OVER THE EXTREME ERN CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER...AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
PROG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW DRG
THAT TIME. NO PCPN EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  68  59  72  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
VICTORIA          49  66  57  68  42  /  10  40  50  50  20
LAREDO            58  71  58  73  48  /  30  40  50  30  30
ALICE             56  70  58  73  47  /  10  40  50  40  30
ROCKPORT          57  64  60  64  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
COTULLA           52  68  56  70  44  /  30  60  40  30  20
KINGSVILLE        57  70  59  74  48  /  10  30  40  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       57  65  60  65  49  /  10  30  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM









000
FXUS64 KCRP 301746
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1146 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY ENCROACHING ON LRD TAF SITE.
WILL SEE THESE CLOUDS SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS HOWEVER. BY
EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL. LIKELY DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN REACHES EASTERN TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT PASSED OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR SKIES
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WIND OVER KLRD...KALI...AND
KCRP EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND REMAINS LIGHTER WITH VFR CIGS OVER
KVCT...BUT ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS TO FILL IN BY MID MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR LVLS AT KCRP AND KALI IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND KLRD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
FROM NORTH NORTHEAST TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE VICINITY OF
KLRD OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION JUST
PAST THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW
THIS MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL
FEEL FAIRLY COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONE WILL PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FAIRLY QUICKLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW AMPLE MOISTURE TO BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
MID/UPPER LVL LOW DIGGING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SEND
DISTURBANCES OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE AND SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING EAST OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO
SEASONABLE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW
AND WAA PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE TWO MAIN RAIN EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THE NEXT ONE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. UPPER JET
APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND IMPACTS AREA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT (WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TOO) AND CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON (THE LATTER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS). LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF INSTABILITY PRESENT TO WARRANT A
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS RAIN EVENT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST SO WILL HAVE DECREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE TRICKY...AS THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH OF A DIMINISH IN CLOUD COVER TO BRING TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES (IF NOT HIGHER). WILL NOT GO
THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME SINCE THINK CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INHIBIT
GOOD INSULATION...BUT WILL STILL TEND TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST.

THE SECOND MAIN RAIN EVENT OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES. SINCE THESE
UPPER LOWS CAN BE FINICKY IN HOW FAST (OR SLOW) THEY CAN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION (AND HOW FAST/SLOW THE MODELS ACTUALLY FORECAST THEM TO
MOVE)...AM GOING TO GO NO MORE THAN GOOD CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...
WITH LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY (BUT
STILL CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST). UPPER RIDGE SHOULD START TAKING
CONTROL BY WEDNESDAY...SO NO RAIN MENTIONED EXCEPT OFFSHORE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLEST DAYTIME
HIGHS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  55  70  63  76  /  10  10  40  50  40
VICTORIA          62  48  65  60  73  /  10  10  50  60  60
LAREDO            67  55  71  58  75  /  10  30  40  50  20
ALICE             63  54  71  60  77  /  10  20  40  50  40
ROCKPORT          59  54  65  61  73  /  10  10  40  50  50
COTULLA           63  52  67  58  73  /  10  30  60  50  20
KINGSVILLE        63  55  72  62  75  /  10  10  30  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       60  55  68  63  72  /  10  10  30  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 301746
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1146 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY ENCROACHING ON LRD TAF SITE.
WILL SEE THESE CLOUDS SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS HOWEVER. BY
EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL. LIKELY DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN REACHES EASTERN TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT PASSED OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR SKIES
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WIND OVER KLRD...KALI...AND
KCRP EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND REMAINS LIGHTER WITH VFR CIGS OVER
KVCT...BUT ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS TO FILL IN BY MID MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR LVLS AT KCRP AND KALI IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND KLRD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
FROM NORTH NORTHEAST TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE VICINITY OF
KLRD OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION JUST
PAST THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW
THIS MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL
FEEL FAIRLY COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONE WILL PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FAIRLY QUICKLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW AMPLE MOISTURE TO BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
MID/UPPER LVL LOW DIGGING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SEND
DISTURBANCES OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE AND SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING EAST OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO
SEASONABLE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW
AND WAA PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE TWO MAIN RAIN EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THE NEXT ONE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. UPPER JET
APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND IMPACTS AREA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT (WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TOO) AND CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON (THE LATTER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS). LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF INSTABILITY PRESENT TO WARRANT A
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS RAIN EVENT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST SO WILL HAVE DECREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE TRICKY...AS THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH OF A DIMINISH IN CLOUD COVER TO BRING TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES (IF NOT HIGHER). WILL NOT GO
THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME SINCE THINK CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INHIBIT
GOOD INSULATION...BUT WILL STILL TEND TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST.

THE SECOND MAIN RAIN EVENT OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES. SINCE THESE
UPPER LOWS CAN BE FINICKY IN HOW FAST (OR SLOW) THEY CAN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION (AND HOW FAST/SLOW THE MODELS ACTUALLY FORECAST THEM TO
MOVE)...AM GOING TO GO NO MORE THAN GOOD CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...
WITH LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY (BUT
STILL CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST). UPPER RIDGE SHOULD START TAKING
CONTROL BY WEDNESDAY...SO NO RAIN MENTIONED EXCEPT OFFSHORE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLEST DAYTIME
HIGHS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  55  70  63  76  /  10  10  40  50  40
VICTORIA          62  48  65  60  73  /  10  10  50  60  60
LAREDO            67  55  71  58  75  /  10  30  40  50  20
ALICE             63  54  71  60  77  /  10  20  40  50  40
ROCKPORT          59  54  65  61  73  /  10  10  40  50  50
COTULLA           63  52  67  58  73  /  10  30  60  50  20
KINGSVILLE        63  55  72  62  75  /  10  10  30  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       60  55  68  63  72  /  10  10  30  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION









000
FXUS64 KCRP 301153
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
553 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT PASSED OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR SKIES
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WIND OVER KLRD...KALI...AND
KCRP EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND REMAINS LIGHTER WITH VFR CIGS OVER
KVCT...BUT ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS TO FILL IN BY MID MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR LVLS AT KCRP AND KALI IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND KLRD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
FROM NORTH NORTHEAST TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE VICINITY OF
KLRD OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION JUST
PAST THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW
THIS MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL
FEEL FAIRLY COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONE WILL PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FAIRLY QUICKLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW AMPLE MOISTURE TO BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
MID/UPPER LVL LOW DIGGING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SEND
DISTURBANCES OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE AND SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING EAST OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO
SEASONABLE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW
AND WAA PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE TWO MAIN RAIN EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THE NEXT ONE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. UPPER JET
APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND IMPACTS AREA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT (WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TOO) AND CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON (THE LATTER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS). LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF INSTABILITY PRESENT TO WARRANT A
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS RAIN EVENT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST SO WILL HAVE DECREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE TRICKY...AS THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH OF A DIMINISH IN CLOUD COVER TO BRING TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES (IF NOT HIGHER). WILL NOT GO
THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME SINCE THINK CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INHIBIT
GOOD INSULATION...BUT WILL STILL TEND TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST.

THE SECOND MAIN RAIN EVENT OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES. SINCE THESE
UPPER LOWS CAN BE FINICKY IN HOW FAST (OR SLOW) THEY CAN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION (AND HOW FAST/SLOW THE MODELS ACTUALLY FORECAST THEM TO
MOVE)...AM GOING TO GO NO MORE THAN GOOD CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...
WITH LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY (BUT
STILL CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST). UPPER RIDGE SHOULD START TAKING
CONTROL BY WEDNESDAY...SO NO RAIN MENTIONED EXCEPT OFFSHORE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLEST DAYTIME
HIGHS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  55  70  63  76  /  10  10  40  50  40
VICTORIA          62  48  65  60  73  /  10  10  50  60  60
LAREDO            67  55  71  58  75  /  10  30  40  50  20
ALICE             63  54  71  60  77  /  10  20  40  50  40
ROCKPORT          59  54  65  61  73  /  10  10  40  50  50
COTULLA           63  52  67  58  73  /  10  30  60  50  20
KINGSVILLE        63  55  72  62  75  /  10  10  30  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       60  55  68  63  72  /  10  10  30  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 301153
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
553 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT PASSED OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR SKIES
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WIND OVER KLRD...KALI...AND
KCRP EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND REMAINS LIGHTER WITH VFR CIGS OVER
KVCT...BUT ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS TO FILL IN BY MID MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR LVLS AT KCRP AND KALI IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND KLRD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
FROM NORTH NORTHEAST TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE VICINITY OF
KLRD OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION JUST
PAST THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW
THIS MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL
FEEL FAIRLY COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONE WILL PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FAIRLY QUICKLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW AMPLE MOISTURE TO BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
MID/UPPER LVL LOW DIGGING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SEND
DISTURBANCES OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE AND SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING EAST OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO
SEASONABLE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW
AND WAA PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE TWO MAIN RAIN EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THE NEXT ONE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. UPPER JET
APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND IMPACTS AREA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT (WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TOO) AND CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON (THE LATTER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS). LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF INSTABILITY PRESENT TO WARRANT A
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS RAIN EVENT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST SO WILL HAVE DECREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE TRICKY...AS THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH OF A DIMINISH IN CLOUD COVER TO BRING TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES (IF NOT HIGHER). WILL NOT GO
THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME SINCE THINK CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INHIBIT
GOOD INSULATION...BUT WILL STILL TEND TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST.

THE SECOND MAIN RAIN EVENT OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES. SINCE THESE
UPPER LOWS CAN BE FINICKY IN HOW FAST (OR SLOW) THEY CAN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION (AND HOW FAST/SLOW THE MODELS ACTUALLY FORECAST THEM TO
MOVE)...AM GOING TO GO NO MORE THAN GOOD CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...
WITH LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY (BUT
STILL CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST). UPPER RIDGE SHOULD START TAKING
CONTROL BY WEDNESDAY...SO NO RAIN MENTIONED EXCEPT OFFSHORE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLEST DAYTIME
HIGHS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  55  70  63  76  /  10  10  40  50  40
VICTORIA          62  48  65  60  73  /  10  10  50  60  60
LAREDO            67  55  71  58  75  /  10  30  40  50  20
ALICE             63  54  71  60  77  /  10  20  40  50  40
ROCKPORT          59  54  65  61  73  /  10  10  40  50  50
COTULLA           63  52  67  58  73  /  10  30  60  50  20
KINGSVILLE        63  55  72  62  75  /  10  10  30  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       60  55  68  63  72  /  10  10  30  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 301007
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
407 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW
THIS MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL
FEEL FAIRLY COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONE WILL PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FAIRLY QUICKLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW AMPLE MOISTURE TO BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
MID/UPPER LVL LOW DIGGING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SEND
DISTURBANCES OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE AND SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING EAST OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO
SEASONABLE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW
AND WAA PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE TWO MAIN RAIN EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THE NEXT ONE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. UPPER JET
APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND IMPACTS AREA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT (WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TOO) AND CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON (THE LATTER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS). LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF INSTABILITY PRESENT TO WARRANT A
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS RAIN EVENT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST SO WILL HAVE DECREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE TRICKY...AS THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH OF A DIMINISH IN CLOUD COVER TO BRING TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES (IF NOT HIGHER). WILL NOT GO
THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME SINCE THINK CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INHIBIT
GOOD INSULATION...BUT WILL STILL TEND TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST.

THE SECOND MAIN RAIN EVENT OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES. SINCE THESE
UPPER LOWS CAN BE FINICKY IN HOW FAST (OR SLOW) THEY CAN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION (AND HOW FAST/SLOW THE MODELS ACTUALLY FORECAST THEM TO
MOVE)...AM GOING TO GO NO MORE THAN GOOD CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...
WITH LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY (BUT
STILL CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST). UPPER RIDGE SHOULD START TAKING
CONTROL BY WEDNESDAY...SO NO RAIN MENTIONED EXCEPT OFFSHORE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLEST DAYTIME
HIGHS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  55  70  63  76  /  10  10  40  50  40
VICTORIA          62  48  65  60  73  /  10  10  50  60  60
LAREDO            67  55  71  58  75  /  10  30  40  50  20
ALICE             63  54  71  60  77  /  10  20  40  50  40
ROCKPORT          59  54  65  61  73  /  10  10  40  50  50
COTULLA           63  52  67  58  73  /  10  30  60  50  20
KINGSVILLE        63  55  72  62  75  /  10  10  30  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       60  55  68  63  72  /  10  10  30  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 301007
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
407 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW
THIS MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL
FEEL FAIRLY COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONE WILL PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FAIRLY QUICKLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW AMPLE MOISTURE TO BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
MID/UPPER LVL LOW DIGGING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SEND
DISTURBANCES OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE AND SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING EAST OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO
SEASONABLE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW
AND WAA PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE TWO MAIN RAIN EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THE NEXT ONE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. UPPER JET
APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND IMPACTS AREA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT (WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TOO) AND CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON (THE LATTER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS). LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF INSTABILITY PRESENT TO WARRANT A
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS RAIN EVENT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST SO WILL HAVE DECREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE TRICKY...AS THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH OF A DIMINISH IN CLOUD COVER TO BRING TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES (IF NOT HIGHER). WILL NOT GO
THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME SINCE THINK CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INHIBIT
GOOD INSULATION...BUT WILL STILL TEND TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST.

THE SECOND MAIN RAIN EVENT OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES. SINCE THESE
UPPER LOWS CAN BE FINICKY IN HOW FAST (OR SLOW) THEY CAN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION (AND HOW FAST/SLOW THE MODELS ACTUALLY FORECAST THEM TO
MOVE)...AM GOING TO GO NO MORE THAN GOOD CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...
WITH LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY (BUT
STILL CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST). UPPER RIDGE SHOULD START TAKING
CONTROL BY WEDNESDAY...SO NO RAIN MENTIONED EXCEPT OFFSHORE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLEST DAYTIME
HIGHS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  55  70  63  76  /  10  10  40  50  40
VICTORIA          62  48  65  60  73  /  10  10  50  60  60
LAREDO            67  55  71  58  75  /  10  30  40  50  20
ALICE             63  54  71  60  77  /  10  20  40  50  40
ROCKPORT          59  54  65  61  73  /  10  10  40  50  50
COTULLA           63  52  67  58  73  /  10  30  60  50  20
KINGSVILLE        63  55  72  62  75  /  10  10  30  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       60  55  68  63  72  /  10  10  30  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 300453 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1053 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE ALONG A
VICTORIA-ENCINAL LINE BY 08Z FRIDAY...PORT O`CONNOR TO ALICE TO
SOUTH OF LAREDO BY 10Z AND SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z. STILL LOOKS
LIKE AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER THE
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TO EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FROM 06-08Z WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT ONSET...DIMINISHING TO IFR AT TIMES UNTIL FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PREVALENT BEHIND THE FRONT BELOW
2 KFT UNTIL MID-MORNING EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE
CIGS WILL BE CLOSER T0 4 KFT. CEILINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 2500-3000
FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FROM 16-21Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CIGS WILL LOWER TO BELOW 2
KFT BUT REMAIN MVFR. MVFR CIGS WILL REACH NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH LOWER CIGS AROUND 1200 FEET CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ENTERING NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF CWA AS OF MID EVENING WITH MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH SAN ANTONIO. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT
TO SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE FROPA FROM NORTH AND SOUTH AND TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MARINE WATERS AND SELECT LAND AREAS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
STILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. ALSO INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO POOL AND WHERE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PVA
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PROG TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  62  54  70  60  /  10  10  10  40  40
VICTORIA          51  61  48  64  56  /  10  10  10  50  50
LAREDO            56  65  55  71  58  /  10  20  30  40  40
ALICE             55  63  53  71  59  /  10  10  20  40  40
ROCKPORT          55  60  54  66  58  /  10  10  10  40  50
COTULLA           52  63  51  66  56  /  10  10  30  50  50
KINGSVILLE        56  64  55  72  60  /  10  10  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       56  61  56  69  59  /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 300453 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1053 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE ALONG A
VICTORIA-ENCINAL LINE BY 08Z FRIDAY...PORT O`CONNOR TO ALICE TO
SOUTH OF LAREDO BY 10Z AND SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z. STILL LOOKS
LIKE AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER THE
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TO EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FROM 06-08Z WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT ONSET...DIMINISHING TO IFR AT TIMES UNTIL FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PREVALENT BEHIND THE FRONT BELOW
2 KFT UNTIL MID-MORNING EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE
CIGS WILL BE CLOSER T0 4 KFT. CEILINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 2500-3000
FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FROM 16-21Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CIGS WILL LOWER TO BELOW 2
KFT BUT REMAIN MVFR. MVFR CIGS WILL REACH NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH LOWER CIGS AROUND 1200 FEET CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ENTERING NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF CWA AS OF MID EVENING WITH MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH SAN ANTONIO. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT
TO SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE FROPA FROM NORTH AND SOUTH AND TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MARINE WATERS AND SELECT LAND AREAS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
STILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. ALSO INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO POOL AND WHERE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PVA
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PROG TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  62  54  70  60  /  10  10  10  40  40
VICTORIA          51  61  48  64  56  /  10  10  10  50  50
LAREDO            56  65  55  71  58  /  10  20  30  40  40
ALICE             55  63  53  71  59  /  10  10  20  40  40
ROCKPORT          55  60  54  66  58  /  10  10  10  40  50
COTULLA           52  63  51  66  56  /  10  10  30  50  50
KINGSVILLE        56  64  55  72  60  /  10  10  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       56  61  56  69  59  /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 300330 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
930 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ENTERING NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF CWA AS OF MID EVENING WITH MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH SAN ANTONIO. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT
TO SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE FROPA FROM NORTH AND SOUTH AND TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MARINE WATERS AND SELECT LAND AREAS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
STILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. ALSO INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO POOL AND WHERE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PVA
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PROG TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  62  54  70  60  /  10  10  10  40  40
VICTORIA          51  61  48  64  56  /  10  10  10  50  50
LAREDO            56  65  55  71  58  /  10  20  30  40  40
ALICE             55  63  53  71  59  /  10  10  20  40  40
ROCKPORT          55  60  54  66  58  /  10  10  10  40  50
COTULLA           52  63  51  66  56  /  10  10  30  50  50
KINGSVILLE        56  64  55  72  60  /  10  10  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       56  61  56  69  59  /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 300330 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
930 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ENTERING NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF CWA AS OF MID EVENING WITH MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH SAN ANTONIO. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT
TO SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE FROPA FROM NORTH AND SOUTH AND TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MARINE WATERS AND SELECT LAND AREAS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
STILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. ALSO INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO POOL AND WHERE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PVA
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PROG TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  62  54  70  60  /  10  10  10  40  40
VICTORIA          51  61  48  64  56  /  10  10  10  50  50
LAREDO            56  65  55  71  58  /  10  20  30  40  40
ALICE             55  63  53  71  59  /  10  10  20  40  40
ROCKPORT          55  60  54  66  58  /  10  10  10  40  50
COTULLA           52  63  51  66  56  /  10  10  30  50  50
KINGSVILLE        56  64  55  72  60  /  10  10  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       56  61  56  69  59  /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 292344 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
544 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AT
THIS TIME WILL ENTER THE SOUTH TEXAS REGION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE ALONG A VICTORIA-ENCINAL LINE BY 08Z
FRIDAY...PORT O`CONNOR TO ALICE TO SOUTH OF LAREDO BY 10Z AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST
TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME.
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER THE
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TO EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FROM 04-05Z
WITH MVFR VSBYS AT ONSET...DIMINISHING TO IFR AT TIMES FROM
05Z UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PREVALENT
BEHIND THE FRONT BELOW 2 KFT UNTIL MID-MORNING...THEN BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT FROM 16-20Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CIGS WILL LOWER TO BELOW 2 KFT
BUT REMAIN MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FEATURE OF SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. TIMING OF
THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
DECREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURE MUCH
COOLER...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE SHALLOW FRONT
SHOULD BACK INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
IN WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE PROFILE MOISTENS. PWAT
VALUES BACK ABOVE 1 INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
PLENTIFUL MSTR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POPS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 30-50 PCT RANGE THROUGHOUT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MILD EVEN WITH THE LACK OF SUNSHINE SO OUTSIDE
OF THE SHOWERS IT WON`T BE A TERRIBLE WEEKEND WEATHER WISE. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF
PRETTY STRONG WINDS. LIKELY WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVSRY CONDS LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY
RELAXES. MONDAY THEN LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER DAY
UNDER HIPRES.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY THAT A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS UPPER SYS
WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA ACRS THE REGION SOMETIME FROM MON
NGT THRU WED.  THESE BAJA CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY POORLY HANDLED
BY THE MODELS BUT THE RECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DOES GIVE ME THE
CONFIDENCE TO START PUSHING POPS BACK UP - ESPLY TUE.  WON`T GO ALL
IN JUST YET AND KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE.  OTHW THE HPC/MEX
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY DECENT AND DID NOT STRAY FAR.  DEPENDING ON WHEN
THE BAJA SYS ACTUALLY CLEARS THE AREA WE LOOK TO TRANSITION BACK
INTO A DRIER AND COOL REGIME FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  62  54  70  60  /  10  10  10  40  40
VICTORIA          51  61  48  64  56  /  10  10  10  50  50
LAREDO            56  65  55  71  58  /  10  20  30  40  40
ALICE             55  63  53  71  59  /  10  10  20  40  40
ROCKPORT          55  60  54  66  58  /  10  10  10  40  50
COTULLA           52  63  51  66  56  /  10  10  30  50  50
KINGSVILLE        56  64  55  72  60  /  10  10  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       56  61  56  69  59  /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 292344 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
544 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AT
THIS TIME WILL ENTER THE SOUTH TEXAS REGION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE ALONG A VICTORIA-ENCINAL LINE BY 08Z
FRIDAY...PORT O`CONNOR TO ALICE TO SOUTH OF LAREDO BY 10Z AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST
TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME.
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER THE
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TO EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FROM 04-05Z
WITH MVFR VSBYS AT ONSET...DIMINISHING TO IFR AT TIMES FROM
05Z UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PREVALENT
BEHIND THE FRONT BELOW 2 KFT UNTIL MID-MORNING...THEN BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT FROM 16-20Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CIGS WILL LOWER TO BELOW 2 KFT
BUT REMAIN MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FEATURE OF SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. TIMING OF
THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
DECREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURE MUCH
COOLER...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE SHALLOW FRONT
SHOULD BACK INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
IN WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE PROFILE MOISTENS. PWAT
VALUES BACK ABOVE 1 INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
PLENTIFUL MSTR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POPS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 30-50 PCT RANGE THROUGHOUT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MILD EVEN WITH THE LACK OF SUNSHINE SO OUTSIDE
OF THE SHOWERS IT WON`T BE A TERRIBLE WEEKEND WEATHER WISE. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF
PRETTY STRONG WINDS. LIKELY WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVSRY CONDS LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY
RELAXES. MONDAY THEN LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER DAY
UNDER HIPRES.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY THAT A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS UPPER SYS
WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA ACRS THE REGION SOMETIME FROM MON
NGT THRU WED.  THESE BAJA CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY POORLY HANDLED
BY THE MODELS BUT THE RECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DOES GIVE ME THE
CONFIDENCE TO START PUSHING POPS BACK UP - ESPLY TUE.  WON`T GO ALL
IN JUST YET AND KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE.  OTHW THE HPC/MEX
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY DECENT AND DID NOT STRAY FAR.  DEPENDING ON WHEN
THE BAJA SYS ACTUALLY CLEARS THE AREA WE LOOK TO TRANSITION BACK
INTO A DRIER AND COOL REGIME FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  62  54  70  60  /  10  10  10  40  40
VICTORIA          51  61  48  64  56  /  10  10  10  50  50
LAREDO            56  65  55  71  58  /  10  20  30  40  40
ALICE             55  63  53  71  59  /  10  10  20  40  40
ROCKPORT          55  60  54  66  58  /  10  10  10  40  50
COTULLA           52  63  51  66  56  /  10  10  30  50  50
KINGSVILLE        56  64  55  72  60  /  10  10  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       56  61  56  69  59  /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 292109
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
309 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FEATURE OF SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. TIMING OF
THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
DECREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURE MUCH
COOLER...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE SHALLOW FRONT
SHOULD BACK INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
IN WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE PROFILE MOISTENS. PWAT
VALUES BACK ABOVE 1 INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
PLENTIFUL MSTR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POPS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 30-50 PCT RANGE THROUGHOUT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MILD EVEN WITH THE LACK OF SUNSHINE SO OUTSIDE
OF THE SHOWERS IT WON`T BE A TERRIBLE WEEKEND WEATHER WISE. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF
PRETTY STRONG WINDS. LIKELY WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVSRY CONDS LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY
RELAXES. MONDAY THEN LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER DAY
UNDER HIPRES.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY THAT A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS UPPER SYS
WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA ACRS THE REGION SOMETIME FROM MON
NGT THRU WED.  THESE BAJA CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY POORLY HANDLED
BY THE MODELS BUT THE RECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DOES GIVE ME THE
CONFIDENCE TO START PUSHING POPS BACK UP - ESPLY TUE.  WON`T GO ALL
IN JUST YET AND KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE.  OTHW THE HPC/MEX
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY DECENT AND DID NOT STRAY FAR.  DEPENDING ON WHEN
THE BAJA SYS ACTUALLY CLEARS THE AREA WE LOOK TO TRANSITION BACK
INTO A DRIER AND COOL REGIME FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  62  54  70  60  /  10  10  10  40  40
VICTORIA          51  61  48  64  56  /  10  10  10  50  50
LAREDO            56  65  55  71  58  /  10  20  30  40  40
ALICE             55  63  53  71  59  /  10  10  20  40  40
ROCKPORT          55  60  54  66  58  /  10  10  10  40  50
COTULLA           52  63  51  66  56  /  10  10  30  50  50
KINGSVILLE        56  64  55  72  60  /  10  10  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       56  61  56  69  59  /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 292109
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
309 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FEATURE OF SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. TIMING OF
THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
DECREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURE MUCH
COOLER...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE SHALLOW FRONT
SHOULD BACK INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
IN WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE PROFILE MOISTENS. PWAT
VALUES BACK ABOVE 1 INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
PLENTIFUL MSTR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POPS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 30-50 PCT RANGE THROUGHOUT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MILD EVEN WITH THE LACK OF SUNSHINE SO OUTSIDE
OF THE SHOWERS IT WON`T BE A TERRIBLE WEEKEND WEATHER WISE. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF
PRETTY STRONG WINDS. LIKELY WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVSRY CONDS LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY
RELAXES. MONDAY THEN LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER DAY
UNDER HIPRES.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY THAT A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS UPPER SYS
WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA ACRS THE REGION SOMETIME FROM MON
NGT THRU WED.  THESE BAJA CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY POORLY HANDLED
BY THE MODELS BUT THE RECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DOES GIVE ME THE
CONFIDENCE TO START PUSHING POPS BACK UP - ESPLY TUE.  WON`T GO ALL
IN JUST YET AND KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE.  OTHW THE HPC/MEX
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY DECENT AND DID NOT STRAY FAR.  DEPENDING ON WHEN
THE BAJA SYS ACTUALLY CLEARS THE AREA WE LOOK TO TRANSITION BACK
INTO A DRIER AND COOL REGIME FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  62  54  70  60  /  10  10  10  40  40
VICTORIA          51  61  48  64  56  /  10  10  10  50  50
LAREDO            56  65  55  71  58  /  10  20  30  40  40
ALICE             55  63  53  71  59  /  10  10  20  40  40
ROCKPORT          55  60  54  66  58  /  10  10  10  40  50
COTULLA           52  63  51  66  56  /  10  10  30  50  50
KINGSVILLE        56  64  55  72  60  /  10  10  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       56  61  56  69  59  /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 291734
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1134 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN ABOUT 10PM AND 3AM. WILL ALSO HAVE AN
MVFR CIG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS BETWEEN ABOUT 1AM AND 3AM ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND BEHIND IT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10AM. SEEING SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
IN SOME AREAS...BUT MAIN BAND OF FOG ACROSS
MCMULLEN...DUVAL...LIVE OAK...AND JIM WELLS COUNTY HAS SHOWN
LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME MIXING IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO TO QUICKLY CLEAR OUT SHALLOW INVERSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
KNQI AROUND 1/2 MILE...WITH KCRP ONLY HAVING MIFR. COULD HAVE FOG
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT WANT TO CANCEL EARLY.

SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO VFR BY
1630Z...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCRP AND KLRD.
COULD HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR BR AT KCRP AFTER SUNRISE AS HEATING
CAUSES SOME FOG TO FORM AS DEW EVAPORATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
MAINLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS (HIGHER EARLY IN KCRP). FRONT DOES NOT
COME DOWN INTO TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 30/06Z...SO WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KALI AND KVCT (AND MVFR AT KCRP)
BEFORE FROPA. FROPA FORECAST IS AOA 07Z AT KVCT...08Z AT KLRD...AND
ABT 09Z/10Z AT KALI AND KCRP. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND FROPA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FIRST ISSUE IS THE FOG THIS
MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT (FOR THE LATTER ISSUE
RAIN CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT). FIRST THE FOG. AM EXPECTING
THE DENSE FOG MAINLY TO IMPACT AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED ALL BUT LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES. WILL SEE
WHAT TRANSPIRES BY SUNRISE. MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG TO GENERATE FOG...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS
HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE IN SOME AREAS (SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING). THUS...WENT WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...WITH EVEN MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
(ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO AWAY FROM THE COAST). FRONT COMES DOWN
TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH IT AS IT WILL NOT BE A
STRONG CHANGE IN WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER (WITH WINDS UP) THAN
THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER OVER AREA. FINALLY...CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE NOR IS THE SURFACE/NEAR
SURFACE FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WILL TRIM THE 20
POPS TO JUST OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
WHERE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST (AND STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE).
OVERALL...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS AND
WINDS.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN BAYS AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE GONE
BY 10 AM. DO NOT THINK IT WILL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...
EXPECTING WEAK FLOW TODAY BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES DOWN. STILL...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION (SCEC). NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL  EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE MODELS
ALSO PROG INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FRI NIGHT THEN
SPREADING E SAT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E...BUT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM W TO E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THIS TREND CONTINUES SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH S TX BY SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG THE PRECIP
TO SHIFT S AND E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS FAR W OF TX AND TRACKS FARTHER S ACROSS THE BAJA WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS S TX...BRINGING DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS TO THE
AREA. BY TUE...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH TX WHICH IN TURNS
SHIFTS THE SFC HIGH E OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING.
THIS WILL USHER THE MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS BACK ACROSS S TX. AS
FOR TEMPS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT SUN...LOWS SUN NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH ONLY 50S FOR HIGHS ON MON. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS...MN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE
COOLER WITH TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  55  64  55  70  /   0  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          77  50  61  48  64  /   0  10  10  20  50
LAREDO            80  56  64  56  71  /   0  10  20  40  40
ALICE             80  53  64  53  71  /   0  10  10  20  40
ROCKPORT          73  53  62  53  67  /   0  10  10  10  40
COTULLA           80  51  61  51  66  /   0  10  10  50  50
KINGSVILLE        79  54  65  54  72  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       73  56  63  57  69  /   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 291734
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1134 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN ABOUT 10PM AND 3AM. WILL ALSO HAVE AN
MVFR CIG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS BETWEEN ABOUT 1AM AND 3AM ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND BEHIND IT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10AM. SEEING SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
IN SOME AREAS...BUT MAIN BAND OF FOG ACROSS
MCMULLEN...DUVAL...LIVE OAK...AND JIM WELLS COUNTY HAS SHOWN
LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME MIXING IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO TO QUICKLY CLEAR OUT SHALLOW INVERSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
KNQI AROUND 1/2 MILE...WITH KCRP ONLY HAVING MIFR. COULD HAVE FOG
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT WANT TO CANCEL EARLY.

SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO VFR BY
1630Z...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCRP AND KLRD.
COULD HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR BR AT KCRP AFTER SUNRISE AS HEATING
CAUSES SOME FOG TO FORM AS DEW EVAPORATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
MAINLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS (HIGHER EARLY IN KCRP). FRONT DOES NOT
COME DOWN INTO TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 30/06Z...SO WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KALI AND KVCT (AND MVFR AT KCRP)
BEFORE FROPA. FROPA FORECAST IS AOA 07Z AT KVCT...08Z AT KLRD...AND
ABT 09Z/10Z AT KALI AND KCRP. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND FROPA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FIRST ISSUE IS THE FOG THIS
MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT (FOR THE LATTER ISSUE
RAIN CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT). FIRST THE FOG. AM EXPECTING
THE DENSE FOG MAINLY TO IMPACT AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED ALL BUT LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES. WILL SEE
WHAT TRANSPIRES BY SUNRISE. MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG TO GENERATE FOG...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS
HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE IN SOME AREAS (SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING). THUS...WENT WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...WITH EVEN MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
(ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO AWAY FROM THE COAST). FRONT COMES DOWN
TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH IT AS IT WILL NOT BE A
STRONG CHANGE IN WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER (WITH WINDS UP) THAN
THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER OVER AREA. FINALLY...CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE NOR IS THE SURFACE/NEAR
SURFACE FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WILL TRIM THE 20
POPS TO JUST OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
WHERE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST (AND STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE).
OVERALL...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS AND
WINDS.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN BAYS AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE GONE
BY 10 AM. DO NOT THINK IT WILL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...
EXPECTING WEAK FLOW TODAY BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES DOWN. STILL...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION (SCEC). NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL  EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE MODELS
ALSO PROG INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FRI NIGHT THEN
SPREADING E SAT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E...BUT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM W TO E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THIS TREND CONTINUES SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH S TX BY SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG THE PRECIP
TO SHIFT S AND E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS FAR W OF TX AND TRACKS FARTHER S ACROSS THE BAJA WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS S TX...BRINGING DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS TO THE
AREA. BY TUE...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH TX WHICH IN TURNS
SHIFTS THE SFC HIGH E OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING.
THIS WILL USHER THE MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS BACK ACROSS S TX. AS
FOR TEMPS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT SUN...LOWS SUN NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH ONLY 50S FOR HIGHS ON MON. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS...MN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE
COOLER WITH TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  55  64  55  70  /   0  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          77  50  61  48  64  /   0  10  10  20  50
LAREDO            80  56  64  56  71  /   0  10  20  40  40
ALICE             80  53  64  53  71  /   0  10  10  20  40
ROCKPORT          73  53  62  53  67  /   0  10  10  10  40
COTULLA           80  51  61  51  66  /   0  10  10  50  50
KINGSVILLE        79  54  65  54  72  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       73  56  63  57  69  /   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 291447
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
847 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10AM. SEEING SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
IN SOME AREAS...BUT MAIN BAND OF FOG ACROSS
MCMULLEN...DUVAL...LIVE OAK...AND JIM WELLS COUNTY HAS SHOWN
LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME MIXING IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO TO QUICKLY CLEAR OUT SHALLOW INVERSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
KNQI AROUND 1/2 MILE...WITH KCRP ONLY HAVING MIFR. COULD HAVE FOG
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT WANT TO CANCEL EARLY.

SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO VFR BY
1630Z...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCRP AND KLRD.
COULD HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR BR AT KCRP AFTER SUNRISE AS HEATING
CAUSES SOME FOG TO FORM AS DEW EVAPORATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
MAINLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS (HIGHER EARLY IN KCRP). FRONT DOES NOT
COME DOWN INTO TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 30/06Z...SO WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KALI AND KVCT (AND MVFR AT KCRP)
BEFORE FROPA. FROPA FORECAST IS AOA 07Z AT KVCT...08Z AT KLRD...AND
ABT 09Z/10Z AT KALI AND KCRP. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND FROPA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FIRST ISSUE IS THE FOG THIS
MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT (FOR THE LATTER ISSUE
RAIN CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT). FIRST THE FOG. AM EXPECTING
THE DENSE FOG MAINLY TO IMPACT AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED ALL BUT LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES. WILL SEE
WHAT TRANSPIRES BY SUNRISE. MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG TO GENERATE FOG...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS
HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE IN SOME AREAS (SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING). THUS...WENT WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...WITH EVEN MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
(ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO AWAY FROM THE COAST). FRONT COMES DOWN
TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH IT AS IT WILL NOT BE A
STRONG CHANGE IN WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER (WITH WINDS UP) THAN
THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER OVER AREA. FINALLY...CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE NOR IS THE SURFACE/NEAR
SURFACE FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WILL TRIM THE 20
POPS TO JUST OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
WHERE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST (AND STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE).
OVERALL...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS AND
WINDS.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN BAYS AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE GONE
BY 10 AM. DO NOT THINK IT WILL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...
EXPECTING WEAK FLOW TODAY BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES DOWN. STILL...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION (SCEC). NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL  EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE MODELS
ALSO PROG INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FRI NIGHT THEN
SPREADING E SAT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E...BUT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM W TO E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THIS TREND CONTINUES SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH S TX BY SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG THE PRECIP
TO SHIFT S AND E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS FAR W OF TX AND TRACKS FARTHER S ACROSS THE BAJA WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS S TX...BRINGING DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS TO THE
AREA. BY TUE...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH TX WHICH IN TURNS
SHIFTS THE SFC HIGH E OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING.
THIS WILL USHER THE MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS BACK ACROSS S TX. AS
FOR TEMPS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT SUN...LOWS SUN NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH ONLY 50S FOR HIGHS ON MON. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS...MN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE
COOLER WITH TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  55  64  55  70  /   0  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          77  50  61  48  64  /   0  10  10  20  50
LAREDO            80  56  64  56  71  /   0  10  20  40  40
ALICE             80  53  64  53  71  /   0  10  10  20  40
ROCKPORT          73  53  62  53  67  /   0  10  10  10  40
COTULLA           80  51  61  51  66  /   0  10  10  50  50
KINGSVILLE        79  54  65  54  72  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       73  56  63  57  69  /   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 291447
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
847 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10AM. SEEING SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
IN SOME AREAS...BUT MAIN BAND OF FOG ACROSS
MCMULLEN...DUVAL...LIVE OAK...AND JIM WELLS COUNTY HAS SHOWN
LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME MIXING IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO TO QUICKLY CLEAR OUT SHALLOW INVERSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
KNQI AROUND 1/2 MILE...WITH KCRP ONLY HAVING MIFR. COULD HAVE FOG
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT WANT TO CANCEL EARLY.

SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO VFR BY
1630Z...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCRP AND KLRD.
COULD HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR BR AT KCRP AFTER SUNRISE AS HEATING
CAUSES SOME FOG TO FORM AS DEW EVAPORATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
MAINLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS (HIGHER EARLY IN KCRP). FRONT DOES NOT
COME DOWN INTO TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 30/06Z...SO WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KALI AND KVCT (AND MVFR AT KCRP)
BEFORE FROPA. FROPA FORECAST IS AOA 07Z AT KVCT...08Z AT KLRD...AND
ABT 09Z/10Z AT KALI AND KCRP. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND FROPA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FIRST ISSUE IS THE FOG THIS
MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT (FOR THE LATTER ISSUE
RAIN CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT). FIRST THE FOG. AM EXPECTING
THE DENSE FOG MAINLY TO IMPACT AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED ALL BUT LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES. WILL SEE
WHAT TRANSPIRES BY SUNRISE. MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG TO GENERATE FOG...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS
HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE IN SOME AREAS (SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING). THUS...WENT WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...WITH EVEN MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
(ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO AWAY FROM THE COAST). FRONT COMES DOWN
TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH IT AS IT WILL NOT BE A
STRONG CHANGE IN WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER (WITH WINDS UP) THAN
THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER OVER AREA. FINALLY...CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE NOR IS THE SURFACE/NEAR
SURFACE FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WILL TRIM THE 20
POPS TO JUST OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
WHERE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST (AND STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE).
OVERALL...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS AND
WINDS.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN BAYS AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE GONE
BY 10 AM. DO NOT THINK IT WILL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...
EXPECTING WEAK FLOW TODAY BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES DOWN. STILL...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION (SCEC). NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL  EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE MODELS
ALSO PROG INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FRI NIGHT THEN
SPREADING E SAT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E...BUT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM W TO E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THIS TREND CONTINUES SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH S TX BY SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG THE PRECIP
TO SHIFT S AND E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS FAR W OF TX AND TRACKS FARTHER S ACROSS THE BAJA WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS S TX...BRINGING DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS TO THE
AREA. BY TUE...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH TX WHICH IN TURNS
SHIFTS THE SFC HIGH E OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING.
THIS WILL USHER THE MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS BACK ACROSS S TX. AS
FOR TEMPS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT SUN...LOWS SUN NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH ONLY 50S FOR HIGHS ON MON. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS...MN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE
COOLER WITH TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  55  64  55  70  /   0  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          77  50  61  48  64  /   0  10  10  20  50
LAREDO            80  56  64  56  71  /   0  10  20  40  40
ALICE             80  53  64  53  71  /   0  10  10  20  40
ROCKPORT          73  53  62  53  67  /   0  10  10  10  40
COTULLA           80  51  61  51  66  /   0  10  10  50  50
KINGSVILLE        79  54  65  54  72  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       73  56  63  57  69  /   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 291157
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
557 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
KNQI AROUND 1/2 MILE...WITH KCRP ONLY HAVING MIFR. COULD HAVE FOG
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT WANT TO CANCEL EARLY.

SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO VFR BY
1630Z...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCRP AND KLRD.
COULD HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR BR AT KCRP AFTER SUNRISE AS HEATING
CAUSES SOME FOG TO FORM AS DEW EVAPORATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
MAINLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS (HIGHER EARLY IN KCRP). FRONT DOES NOT
COME DOWN INTO TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 30/06Z...SO WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KALI AND KVCT (AND MVFR AT KCRP)
BEFORE FROPA. FROPA FORECAST IS AOA 07Z AT KVCT...08Z AT KLRD...AND
ABT 09Z/10Z AT KALI AND KCRP. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FIRST ISSUE IS THE FOG THIS
MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT (FOR THE LATTER ISSUE
RAIN CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT). FIRST THE FOG. AM EXPECTING
THE DENSE FOG MAINLY TO IMPACT AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED ALL BUT LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES. WILL SEE
WHAT TRANSPIRES BY SUNRISE. MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG TO GENERATE FOG...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS
HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE IN SOME AREAS (SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING). THUS...WENT WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...WITH EVEN MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
(ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO AWAY FROM THE COAST). FRONT COMES DOWN
TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH IT AS IT WILL NOT BE A
STRONG CHANGE IN WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER (WITH WINDS UP) THAN
THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER OVER AREA. FINALLY...CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE NOR IS THE SURFACE/NEAR
SURFACE FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WILL TRIM THE 20
POPS TO JUST OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
WHERE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST (AND STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE).
OVERALL...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS AND
WINDS.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN BAYS AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE GONE
BY 10 AM. DO NOT THINK IT WILL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...
EXPECTING WEAK FLOW TODAY BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES DOWN. STILL...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION (SCEC). NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL  EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE MODELS
ALSO PROG INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FRI NIGHT THEN
SPREADING E SAT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E...BUT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM W TO E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THIS TREND CONTINUES SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH S TX BY SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG THE PRECIP
TO SHIFT S AND E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS FAR W OF TX AND TRACKS FARTHER S ACROSS THE BAJA WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS S TX...BRINGING DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS TO THE
AREA. BY TUE...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH TX WHICH IN TURNS
SHIFTS THE SFC HIGH E OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING.
THIS WILL USHER THE MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS BACK ACROSS S TX. AS
FOR TEMPS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT SUN...LOWS SUN NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH ONLY 50S FOR HIGHS ON MON. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS...MN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE
COOLER WITH TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  55  64  55  70  /   0  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          77  50  61  48  64  /   0  10  10  20  50
LAREDO            80  56  64  56  71  /   0  10  20  40  40
ALICE             80  53  64  53  71  /   0  10  10  20  40
ROCKPORT          73  53  62  53  67  /   0  10  10  10  40
COTULLA           80  51  61  51  66  /   0  10  10  50  50
KINGSVILLE        79  54  65  54  72  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       73  56  63  57  69  /   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
     SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 291157
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
557 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
KNQI AROUND 1/2 MILE...WITH KCRP ONLY HAVING MIFR. COULD HAVE FOG
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT WANT TO CANCEL EARLY.

SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO VFR BY
1630Z...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCRP AND KLRD.
COULD HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR BR AT KCRP AFTER SUNRISE AS HEATING
CAUSES SOME FOG TO FORM AS DEW EVAPORATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
MAINLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS (HIGHER EARLY IN KCRP). FRONT DOES NOT
COME DOWN INTO TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 30/06Z...SO WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KALI AND KVCT (AND MVFR AT KCRP)
BEFORE FROPA. FROPA FORECAST IS AOA 07Z AT KVCT...08Z AT KLRD...AND
ABT 09Z/10Z AT KALI AND KCRP. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FIRST ISSUE IS THE FOG THIS
MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT (FOR THE LATTER ISSUE
RAIN CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT). FIRST THE FOG. AM EXPECTING
THE DENSE FOG MAINLY TO IMPACT AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED ALL BUT LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES. WILL SEE
WHAT TRANSPIRES BY SUNRISE. MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG TO GENERATE FOG...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS
HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE IN SOME AREAS (SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING). THUS...WENT WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...WITH EVEN MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
(ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO AWAY FROM THE COAST). FRONT COMES DOWN
TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH IT AS IT WILL NOT BE A
STRONG CHANGE IN WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER (WITH WINDS UP) THAN
THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER OVER AREA. FINALLY...CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE NOR IS THE SURFACE/NEAR
SURFACE FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WILL TRIM THE 20
POPS TO JUST OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
WHERE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST (AND STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE).
OVERALL...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS AND
WINDS.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN BAYS AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE GONE
BY 10 AM. DO NOT THINK IT WILL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...
EXPECTING WEAK FLOW TODAY BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES DOWN. STILL...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION (SCEC). NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL  EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE MODELS
ALSO PROG INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FRI NIGHT THEN
SPREADING E SAT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E...BUT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM W TO E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THIS TREND CONTINUES SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH S TX BY SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG THE PRECIP
TO SHIFT S AND E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS FAR W OF TX AND TRACKS FARTHER S ACROSS THE BAJA WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS S TX...BRINGING DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS TO THE
AREA. BY TUE...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH TX WHICH IN TURNS
SHIFTS THE SFC HIGH E OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING.
THIS WILL USHER THE MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS BACK ACROSS S TX. AS
FOR TEMPS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT SUN...LOWS SUN NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH ONLY 50S FOR HIGHS ON MON. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS...MN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE
COOLER WITH TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  55  64  55  70  /   0  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          77  50  61  48  64  /   0  10  10  20  50
LAREDO            80  56  64  56  71  /   0  10  20  40  40
ALICE             80  53  64  53  71  /   0  10  10  20  40
ROCKPORT          73  53  62  53  67  /   0  10  10  10  40
COTULLA           80  51  61  51  66  /   0  10  10  50  50
KINGSVILLE        79  54  65  54  72  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       73  56  63  57  69  /   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
     SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290855
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
255 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FIRST ISSUE IS THE FOG THIS
MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT (FOR THE LATTER ISSUE
RAIN CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT). FIRST THE FOG. AM EXPECTING
THE DENSE FOG MAINLY TO IMPACT AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED ALL BUT LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES. WILL SEE
WHAT TRANSPIRES BY SUNRISE. MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG TO GENERATE FOG...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS
HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE IN SOME AREAS (SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING). THUS...WENT WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...WITH EVEN MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
(ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO AWAY FROM THE COAST). FRONT COMES DOWN
TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH IT AS IT WILL NOT BE A
STRONG CHANGE IN WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER (WITH WINDS UP) THAN
THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER OVER AREA. FINALLY...CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE NOR IS THE SURFACE/NEAR
SURFACE FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WILL TRIM THE 20
POPS TO JUST OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
WHERE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST (AND STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE).
OVERALL...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS AND
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN BAYS AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE GONE
BY 10 AM. DO NOT THINK IT WILL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...
EXPECTING WEAK FLOW TODAY BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES DOWN. STILL...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION (SCEC). NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL  EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE MODELS
ALSO PROG INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FRI NIGHT THEN
SPREADING E SAT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E...BUT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM W TO E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THIS TREND CONTINUES SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH S TX BY SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG THE PRECIP
TO SHIFT S AND E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS FAR W OF TX AND TRACKS FARTHER S ACROSS THE BAJA WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS S TX...BRINGING DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS TO THE
AREA. BY TUE...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH TX WHICH IN TURNS
SHIFTS THE SFC HIGH E OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING.
THIS WILL USHER THE MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS BACK ACROSS S TX. AS
FOR TEMPS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT SUN...LOWS SUN NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH ONLY 50S FOR HIGHS ON MON. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS...MN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE
COOLER WITH TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  55  64  55  70  /   0  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          77  50  61  48  64  /   0  10  10  20  50
LAREDO            80  56  64  56  71  /   0  10  20  40  40
ALICE             80  53  64  53  71  /   0  10  10  20  40
ROCKPORT          73  53  62  53  67  /   0  10  10  10  40
COTULLA           80  51  61  51  66  /   0  10  10  50  50
KINGSVILLE        79  54  65  54  72  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       73  56  63  57  69  /   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
     SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 290855
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
255 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FIRST ISSUE IS THE FOG THIS
MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT (FOR THE LATTER ISSUE
RAIN CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT). FIRST THE FOG. AM EXPECTING
THE DENSE FOG MAINLY TO IMPACT AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED ALL BUT LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES. WILL SEE
WHAT TRANSPIRES BY SUNRISE. MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG TO GENERATE FOG...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS
HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE IN SOME AREAS (SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING). THUS...WENT WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...WITH EVEN MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
(ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO AWAY FROM THE COAST). FRONT COMES DOWN
TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH IT AS IT WILL NOT BE A
STRONG CHANGE IN WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER (WITH WINDS UP) THAN
THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER OVER AREA. FINALLY...CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE NOR IS THE SURFACE/NEAR
SURFACE FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WILL TRIM THE 20
POPS TO JUST OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
WHERE IS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST (AND STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE).
OVERALL...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS AND
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN BAYS AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE GONE
BY 10 AM. DO NOT THINK IT WILL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...
EXPECTING WEAK FLOW TODAY BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES DOWN. STILL...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION (SCEC). NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL  EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS S TX FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE MODELS
ALSO PROG INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FRI NIGHT THEN
SPREADING E SAT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E...BUT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM W TO E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THIS TREND CONTINUES SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH S TX BY SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG THE PRECIP
TO SHIFT S AND E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS FAR W OF TX AND TRACKS FARTHER S ACROSS THE BAJA WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS S TX...BRINGING DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS TO THE
AREA. BY TUE...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH TX WHICH IN TURNS
SHIFTS THE SFC HIGH E OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING.
THIS WILL USHER THE MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS BACK ACROSS S TX. AS
FOR TEMPS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT SUN...LOWS SUN NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH ONLY 50S FOR HIGHS ON MON. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS...MN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE
COOLER WITH TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  55  64  55  70  /   0  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          77  50  61  48  64  /   0  10  10  20  50
LAREDO            80  56  64  56  71  /   0  10  20  40  40
ALICE             80  53  64  53  71  /   0  10  10  20  40
ROCKPORT          73  53  62  53  67  /   0  10  10  10  40
COTULLA           80  51  61  51  66  /   0  10  10  50  50
KINGSVILLE        79  54  65  54  72  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       73  56  63  57  69  /   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
     SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290705 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...AM GOING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT
LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.
VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER JIM
WELLS AND BEE COUNTIES. AM NOT GOING TO WAIT AND/OR GET TOO TRICKY
WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...SO WILL INCLUDE ALL BUT WESTERN TWO
COUNTIES WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRETTY LARGE. WILL
RE-EVALUATE IF NEED BE BEFORE AND/OR AFTER NEW PACKAGE COMES OUT.
UPDATES COMING SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING FROM KVCT-KPKV
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. DESPITE BEING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WHERE PERIODS OF IMPROVED CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION TO MAINTAIN LIFR AT KVCT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MAINTAINED MVFR VSBY DEVELOPING
AROUND 06Z FOR KCRP WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CLOSING IN...AND
DEVELOPMENT FOR KALI-KLRD FROM 08Z-10Z. WITH FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS...LEFT LIFR DEVELOPING FROM KCRP-KALI PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH
KLRD BEING ON THE LATER END TO IMPROVE DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR BY THE AFTN. SLIGHT BREEZY S-LY WINDS MID
MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NE COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. FOG HAS QUICKLY
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST THIRTY MINUTES ACROSS VICTORIA PROPER AND
EXTENDS NORTH AND EAST. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND/DEVELOP IN
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS ADVISED COUNTIES.
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE WIND CONDITIONS /LLVL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS/ TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ADVISORY HAVE PRECLUDED A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL ADVISORY AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  64  54  70  58  /  10  10  30  40  40
VICTORIA          50  61  49  67  55  /  10  10  30  50  50
LAREDO            56  64  57  71  56  /  10  20  40  40  30
ALICE             53  64  54  72  58  /  10  10  30  40  40
ROCKPORT          53  62  53  67  58  /  10  10  20  40  50
COTULLA           51  61  54  68  55  /  10  10  50  50  40
KINGSVILLE        54  65  55  72  58  /  10  10  30  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       56  63  57  67  59  /  10  10  20  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
     SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 290705 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...AM GOING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT
LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.
VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER JIM
WELLS AND BEE COUNTIES. AM NOT GOING TO WAIT AND/OR GET TOO TRICKY
WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...SO WILL INCLUDE ALL BUT WESTERN TWO
COUNTIES WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRETTY LARGE. WILL
RE-EVALUATE IF NEED BE BEFORE AND/OR AFTER NEW PACKAGE COMES OUT.
UPDATES COMING SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING FROM KVCT-KPKV
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. DESPITE BEING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WHERE PERIODS OF IMPROVED CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION TO MAINTAIN LIFR AT KVCT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MAINTAINED MVFR VSBY DEVELOPING
AROUND 06Z FOR KCRP WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CLOSING IN...AND
DEVELOPMENT FOR KALI-KLRD FROM 08Z-10Z. WITH FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS...LEFT LIFR DEVELOPING FROM KCRP-KALI PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH
KLRD BEING ON THE LATER END TO IMPROVE DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR BY THE AFTN. SLIGHT BREEZY S-LY WINDS MID
MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NE COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. FOG HAS QUICKLY
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST THIRTY MINUTES ACROSS VICTORIA PROPER AND
EXTENDS NORTH AND EAST. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND/DEVELOP IN
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS ADVISED COUNTIES.
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE WIND CONDITIONS /LLVL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS/ TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ADVISORY HAVE PRECLUDED A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL ADVISORY AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  64  54  70  58  /  10  10  30  40  40
VICTORIA          50  61  49  67  55  /  10  10  30  50  50
LAREDO            56  64  57  71  56  /  10  20  40  40  30
ALICE             53  64  54  72  58  /  10  10  30  40  40
ROCKPORT          53  62  53  67  58  /  10  10  20  40  50
COTULLA           51  61  54  68  55  /  10  10  50  50  40
KINGSVILLE        54  65  55  72  58  /  10  10  30  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       56  63  57  67  59  /  10  10  20  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
     SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290449 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1049 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING FROM KVCT-KPKV
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. DESPITE BEING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WHERE PERIODS OF IMPROVED CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION TO MAINTAIN LIFR AT KVCT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MAINTAINED MVFR VSBY DEVELOPING
AROUND 06Z FOR KCRP WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CLOSING IN...AND
DEVELOPMENT FOR KALI-KLRD FROM 08Z-10Z. WITH FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS...LEFT LIFR DEVELOPING FROM KCRP-KALI PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH
KLRD BEING ON THE LATER END TO IMPROVE DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR BY THE AFTN. SLIGHT BREEZY S-LY WINDS MID
MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NE COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. FOG HAS QUICKLY
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST THIRTY MINUTES ACROSS VICTORIA PROPER AND
EXTENDS NORTH AND EAST. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND/DEVELOP IN
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS ADVISED COUNTIES.
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE WIND CONDITIONS /LLVL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS/ TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ADVISORY HAVE PRECLUDED A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL ADVISORY AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  76  53  65  54  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          53  76  49  61  49  /   0  10  10  10  30
LAREDO            56  79  56  68  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
ALICE             53  79  53  66  54  /   0  10  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          56  72  52  62  53  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           51  78  51  62  54  /   0  10  10  20  50
KINGSVILLE        55  78  54  66  55  /   0  10  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       58  73  55  64  57  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290449 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1049 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING FROM KVCT-KPKV
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. DESPITE BEING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WHERE PERIODS OF IMPROVED CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION TO MAINTAIN LIFR AT KVCT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MAINTAINED MVFR VSBY DEVELOPING
AROUND 06Z FOR KCRP WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CLOSING IN...AND
DEVELOPMENT FOR KALI-KLRD FROM 08Z-10Z. WITH FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS...LEFT LIFR DEVELOPING FROM KCRP-KALI PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH
KLRD BEING ON THE LATER END TO IMPROVE DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR BY THE AFTN. SLIGHT BREEZY S-LY WINDS MID
MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NE COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. FOG HAS QUICKLY
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST THIRTY MINUTES ACROSS VICTORIA PROPER AND
EXTENDS NORTH AND EAST. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND/DEVELOP IN
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS ADVISED COUNTIES.
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE WIND CONDITIONS /LLVL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS/ TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ADVISORY HAVE PRECLUDED A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL ADVISORY AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  76  53  65  54  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          53  76  49  61  49  /   0  10  10  10  30
LAREDO            56  79  56  68  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
ALICE             53  79  53  66  54  /   0  10  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          56  72  52  62  53  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           51  78  51  62  54  /   0  10  10  20  50
KINGSVILLE        55  78  54  66  55  /   0  10  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       58  73  55  64  57  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 290410 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1010 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NE COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. FOG HAS QUICKLY
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST THIRTY MINUTES ACROSS VICTORIA PROPER AND
EXTENDS NORTH AND EAST. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND/DEVELOP IN
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS ADVISED COUNTIES.
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE WIND CONDITIONS /LLVL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS/ TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ADVISORY HAVE PRECLUDED A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL ADVISORY AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  76  53  65  54  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          53  76  49  61  49  /   0  10  10  10  30
LAREDO            56  79  56  68  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
ALICE             53  79  53  66  54  /   0  10  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          56  72  52  62  53  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           51  78  51  62  54  /   0  10  10  20  50
KINGSVILLE        55  78  54  66  55  /   0  10  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       58  73  55  64  57  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 290410 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1010 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NE COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. FOG HAS QUICKLY
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST THIRTY MINUTES ACROSS VICTORIA PROPER AND
EXTENDS NORTH AND EAST. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND/DEVELOP IN
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS ADVISED COUNTIES.
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE WIND CONDITIONS /LLVL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS/ TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ADVISORY HAVE PRECLUDED A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL ADVISORY AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  76  53  65  54  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          53  76  49  61  49  /   0  10  10  10  30
LAREDO            56  79  56  68  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
ALICE             53  79  53  66  54  /   0  10  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          56  72  52  62  53  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           51  78  51  62  54  /   0  10  10  20  50
KINGSVILLE        55  78  54  66  55  /   0  10  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       58  73  55  64  57  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290331 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
931 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. MAIN WEATHER IMPACT FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. 11 TO 3.9 MICROMETRE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES FOG/STRATUS MAY BE TYRYING TO DEVELOP AS OF
WRITING VCNTY OF VICTORIA...BUT AT THE MOMENT APPEARS TO BE
STRUGGLING TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE. SURFACE MOISTURE INFLUX
IS NOT PROG TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION
FOG EVENT AND LLVL WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL FOG
EVENT. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE SOME AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHTER...AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  76  53  65  54  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          53  76  49  61  49  /   0  10  10  10  30
LAREDO            56  79  56  68  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
ALICE             53  79  53  66  54  /   0  10  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          56  72  52  62  53  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           51  78  51  62  54  /   0  10  10  20  50
KINGSVILLE        55  78  54  66  55  /   0  10  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       58  73  55  64  57  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 282359 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
559 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU THE EVNG...WITH VSBY AND CIG LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH PERIODS OF IFR. THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IS
PRIMED FOR FOG TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AROUND 06Z...AND MOVE IN PRETTY QUICKLY
FOR CRP-VCT. FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO DEVELOP
FOR ALI-LRD...WITH LRD VSBY LOWERING MORE TOWARD 10Z. A LLJ WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COAST...BUT ITS WINDS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MID
TO LATE MRNG WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN...WITH VFR EXPECTED BY 18Z FOR
ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...WHILE THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...A
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES WILL MERGE AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS HAVE FINALLY BACKED TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING IN HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE BRUSH COUNTRY
TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG/LOW STRATUS TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND. SOME AREAS COULD SEE DENSE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT AROUND A CATEGORY COOLER THAN TODAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AND PUSH THE FOG SOUTH OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DIGGING UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. INBETWEEN THE TWO IS A QUICKLY
FLATTENING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAK IMPULSE COMING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO
OUR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND REINTRODUCING CHANCES FOR
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER IMPULSE LOOKS TO DRIVE A
REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEFLY STRONGER
WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN CUTOFF LOW AND ITS EFFECTS ON SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION...DEVELOPING A LARGE MOISTURE POOL IN
A REGION OF STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO...MUCH MORE SO THAN ANY OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OR EVEN WHAT THE GFS ITSELF HAS DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR
THE MOMENT WILL TREAT THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER AND ALIGN THE FORECAST
CLOSER TO THE CMC AND ECMWF...WITH THE COASTAL BEND ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT UPPER
SUPPORT AND BEST MOISTURE TO BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE COASTAL BEND BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND FORECAST
THEREAFTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
FALL BELOW NORMALS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE ONLY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  76  53  65  54  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          53  76  49  61  49  /   0  10  10  10  30
LAREDO            56  79  56  68  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
ALICE             53  79  53  66  54  /   0  10  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          56  72  52  62  53  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           51  78  51  62  54  /   0  10  10  20  50
KINGSVILLE        55  78  54  66  55  /   0  10  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       58  73  55  64  57  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 282359 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
559 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU THE EVNG...WITH VSBY AND CIG LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH PERIODS OF IFR. THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IS
PRIMED FOR FOG TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AROUND 06Z...AND MOVE IN PRETTY QUICKLY
FOR CRP-VCT. FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO DEVELOP
FOR ALI-LRD...WITH LRD VSBY LOWERING MORE TOWARD 10Z. A LLJ WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COAST...BUT ITS WINDS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MID
TO LATE MRNG WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN...WITH VFR EXPECTED BY 18Z FOR
ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...WHILE THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...A
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES WILL MERGE AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS HAVE FINALLY BACKED TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING IN HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE BRUSH COUNTRY
TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG/LOW STRATUS TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND. SOME AREAS COULD SEE DENSE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT AROUND A CATEGORY COOLER THAN TODAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AND PUSH THE FOG SOUTH OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DIGGING UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. INBETWEEN THE TWO IS A QUICKLY
FLATTENING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAK IMPULSE COMING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO
OUR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND REINTRODUCING CHANCES FOR
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER IMPULSE LOOKS TO DRIVE A
REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEFLY STRONGER
WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN CUTOFF LOW AND ITS EFFECTS ON SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION...DEVELOPING A LARGE MOISTURE POOL IN
A REGION OF STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO...MUCH MORE SO THAN ANY OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OR EVEN WHAT THE GFS ITSELF HAS DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR
THE MOMENT WILL TREAT THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER AND ALIGN THE FORECAST
CLOSER TO THE CMC AND ECMWF...WITH THE COASTAL BEND ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT UPPER
SUPPORT AND BEST MOISTURE TO BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE COASTAL BEND BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND FORECAST
THEREAFTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
FALL BELOW NORMALS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE ONLY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  76  53  65  54  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          53  76  49  61  49  /   0  10  10  10  30
LAREDO            56  79  56  68  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
ALICE             53  79  53  66  54  /   0  10  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          56  72  52  62  53  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           51  78  51  62  54  /   0  10  10  20  50
KINGSVILLE        55  78  54  66  55  /   0  10  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       58  73  55  64  57  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 282033
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
233 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...WHILE THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...A
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES WILL MERGE AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS HAVE FINALLY BACKED TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING IN HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE BRUSH COUNTRY
TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG/LOW STRATUS TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND. SOME AREAS COULD SEE DENSE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT AROUND A CATEGORY COOLER THAN TODAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AND PUSH THE FOG SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DIGGING UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. INBETWEEN THE TWO IS A QUICKLY
FLATTENING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAK IMPULSE COMING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO
OUR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND REINTRODUCING CHANCES FOR
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER IMPULSE LOOKS TO DRIVE A
REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEFLY STRONGER
WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN CUTOFF LOW AND ITS EFFECTS ON SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION...DEVELOPING A LARGE MOISTURE POOL IN
A REGION OF STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO...MUCH MORE SO THAN ANY OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OR EVEN WHAT THE GFS ITSELF HAS DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR
THE MOMENT WILL TREAT THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER AND ALIGN THE FORECAST
CLOSER TO THE CMC AND ECMWF...WITH THE COASTAL BEND ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT UPPER
SUPPORT AND BEST MOISTURE TO BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE COASTAL BEND BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND FORECAST
THEREAFTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
FALL BELOW NORMALS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE ONLY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  76  53  65  54  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          53  76  49  61  49  /   0  10  10  10  30
LAREDO            56  79  56  68  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
ALICE             53  79  53  66  54  /   0  10  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          56  72  52  62  53  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           51  78  51  62  54  /   0  10  10  20  50
KINGSVILLE        55  78  54  66  55  /   0  10  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       58  73  55  64  57  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 282033
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
233 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...WHILE THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...A
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES WILL MERGE AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS HAVE FINALLY BACKED TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING IN HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE BRUSH COUNTRY
TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG/LOW STRATUS TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND. SOME AREAS COULD SEE DENSE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT AROUND A CATEGORY COOLER THAN TODAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AND PUSH THE FOG SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DIGGING UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. INBETWEEN THE TWO IS A QUICKLY
FLATTENING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAK IMPULSE COMING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO
OUR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND REINTRODUCING CHANCES FOR
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER IMPULSE LOOKS TO DRIVE A
REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEFLY STRONGER
WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN CUTOFF LOW AND ITS EFFECTS ON SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION...DEVELOPING A LARGE MOISTURE POOL IN
A REGION OF STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO...MUCH MORE SO THAN ANY OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OR EVEN WHAT THE GFS ITSELF HAS DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR
THE MOMENT WILL TREAT THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER AND ALIGN THE FORECAST
CLOSER TO THE CMC AND ECMWF...WITH THE COASTAL BEND ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT UPPER
SUPPORT AND BEST MOISTURE TO BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE COASTAL BEND BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND FORECAST
THEREAFTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
FALL BELOW NORMALS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE ONLY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  76  53  65  54  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          53  76  49  61  49  /   0  10  10  10  30
LAREDO            56  79  56  68  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
ALICE             53  79  53  66  54  /   0  10  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          56  72  52  62  53  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           51  78  51  62  54  /   0  10  10  20  50
KINGSVILLE        55  78  54  66  55  /   0  10  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       58  73  55  64  57  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281731 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1131 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. EXPECT FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD AT ONSET WITH FOG/STRATUS PROVIDING
MVFR VSBYS/IFR CEILINGS. BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
TO LIFR/VLIFR IN FOG. EXPECT THE FOG WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 10Z
ALSO. THIS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 16Z BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE VCT
AREA WHERE IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT SMALL BAND OF FOG HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTH
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED WARM LAYR OFF
THE SURFACE AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR YESTERDAYS
VALUES EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE WESTERLY. RAISED HIGH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  57  79  51  64  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  54  77  49  60  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  58  81  55  67  /   0   0   0  10  20
ALICE             84  54  81  51  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
ROCKPORT          76  58  73  50  61  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  53  79  52  61  /   0   0   0  10  20
KINGSVILLE        82  55  81  52  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       75  60  75  54  63  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281731 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1131 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. EXPECT FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD AT ONSET WITH FOG/STRATUS PROVIDING
MVFR VSBYS/IFR CEILINGS. BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
TO LIFR/VLIFR IN FOG. EXPECT THE FOG WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 10Z
ALSO. THIS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 16Z BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE VCT
AREA WHERE IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT SMALL BAND OF FOG HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTH
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED WARM LAYR OFF
THE SURFACE AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR YESTERDAYS
VALUES EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE WESTERLY. RAISED HIGH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  57  79  51  64  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  54  77  49  60  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  58  81  55  67  /   0   0   0  10  20
ALICE             84  54  81  51  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
ROCKPORT          76  58  73  50  61  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  53  79  52  61  /   0   0   0  10  20
KINGSVILLE        82  55  81  52  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       75  60  75  54  63  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 281653 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1053 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT SMALL BAND OF FOG HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTH
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED WARM LAYR OFF
THE SURFACE AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR YESTERDAYS
VALUES EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE WESTERLY. RAISED HIGH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  57  79  51  64  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  54  77  49  60  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  58  81  55  67  /   0   0   0  10  20
ALICE             84  54  81  51  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
ROCKPORT          77  58  73  50  61  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  53  79  52  61  /   0   0   0  10  20
KINGSVILLE        82  55  81  52  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  60  75  54  63  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 281106 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
506 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE IS THE FOG...WHICH THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
HITTING HARD (1/4SM FG). BASED ON FORECAST 925 MB WINDS...AM NOT
GOING TO HIT THE FOG AS HARD AS MOS IS SHOWING...ESPECIALLY SINCE
BUFKIT AND NAM12 SOUNDINGS (ALONG WITH GFS SOUNDINGS) NOT SHOWING
THIS. WILL GO WITH IFR CONDITIONS...WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 1SM AT
KVCT... 4SM/TEMPO 2SM AT KALI...AND 4SM/TEMPO 2SM AT KCRP (NO FOG
OR ISSUES AT KLRD). ALL CONDITIONS LOWER THAN VFR OCCURRING AOA
08Z...WITH SOME IFR CIGS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LIGHT SSW
WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING MORE SSE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS AT KCRP AND KALI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT
CONCERNING WEATHER THE NEXT THREE PERIODS...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
BEING ANY FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD NOT BE AS WARM
TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...SINCE WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE MORE ONSHORE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN (MAY START
OFF A BIT SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SHOULD NOT STAY SO FOR LONG). STILL AM
GOING TO GO MORE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TODAY AND TONIGHT...HENCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WILL NOT CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON FOG...AS
OVERALL AREA WHERE FOG WAS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WHEN COMPARING WITH
FORECAST RH FIELDS. AGAIN GOING ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN
MODEL 2 METER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MORE MOISTURE MEANS MORE CLOUDS
(BUT STILL GOING PARTLY CLOUDY) ON THURSDAY...HENCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AREA BUT SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED
AS MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND FRONT NO CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION OF RAIN.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...GOOD BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. DEW POINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT AND COULD
GET TO WHERE SEA FOG WOULD BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SEA FOG FORMATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT THU NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPS TO S TX.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO KEPT ONLY SILENT 10 POPS FOR THU NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ON FRI RESULTING IN EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG MOISTURE TO ADVECT N ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE FRI. IN ADDITION...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS BAJA CA.
THUS...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC FOR THE WESTERN CWA FOR FRI. RAIN CHCS
INCREASE AND SPREAD E FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION AND PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH. MODEL SOLNS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS
E...RAIN CHCS DIMINSH FROM W TO E SUN THRU MON. CAA WILL LEAD TO
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S BY MON AND AROUND 40 DEGREES MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUE ADVECTING THE MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPS BACK INTO S TX. AS FOR WINDS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  57  79  51  64  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          79  54  77  49  60  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            83  58  81  55  67  /   0   0   0  10  20
ALICE             83  54  81  51  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
ROCKPORT          77  58  73  50  61  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           82  53  79  52  61  /   0   0   0  10  20
KINGSVILLE        81  55  81  52  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  60  75  54  63  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281106 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
506 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE IS THE FOG...WHICH THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
HITTING HARD (1/4SM FG). BASED ON FORECAST 925 MB WINDS...AM NOT
GOING TO HIT THE FOG AS HARD AS MOS IS SHOWING...ESPECIALLY SINCE
BUFKIT AND NAM12 SOUNDINGS (ALONG WITH GFS SOUNDINGS) NOT SHOWING
THIS. WILL GO WITH IFR CONDITIONS...WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 1SM AT
KVCT... 4SM/TEMPO 2SM AT KALI...AND 4SM/TEMPO 2SM AT KCRP (NO FOG
OR ISSUES AT KLRD). ALL CONDITIONS LOWER THAN VFR OCCURRING AOA
08Z...WITH SOME IFR CIGS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LIGHT SSW
WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING MORE SSE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS AT KCRP AND KALI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT
CONCERNING WEATHER THE NEXT THREE PERIODS...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
BEING ANY FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD NOT BE AS WARM
TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...SINCE WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE MORE ONSHORE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN (MAY START
OFF A BIT SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SHOULD NOT STAY SO FOR LONG). STILL AM
GOING TO GO MORE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TODAY AND TONIGHT...HENCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WILL NOT CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON FOG...AS
OVERALL AREA WHERE FOG WAS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WHEN COMPARING WITH
FORECAST RH FIELDS. AGAIN GOING ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN
MODEL 2 METER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MORE MOISTURE MEANS MORE CLOUDS
(BUT STILL GOING PARTLY CLOUDY) ON THURSDAY...HENCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AREA BUT SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED
AS MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND FRONT NO CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION OF RAIN.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...GOOD BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. DEW POINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT AND COULD
GET TO WHERE SEA FOG WOULD BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SEA FOG FORMATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT THU NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPS TO S TX.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO KEPT ONLY SILENT 10 POPS FOR THU NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ON FRI RESULTING IN EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG MOISTURE TO ADVECT N ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE FRI. IN ADDITION...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS BAJA CA.
THUS...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC FOR THE WESTERN CWA FOR FRI. RAIN CHCS
INCREASE AND SPREAD E FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION AND PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH. MODEL SOLNS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS
E...RAIN CHCS DIMINSH FROM W TO E SUN THRU MON. CAA WILL LEAD TO
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S BY MON AND AROUND 40 DEGREES MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUE ADVECTING THE MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPS BACK INTO S TX. AS FOR WINDS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  57  79  51  64  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          79  54  77  49  60  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            83  58  81  55  67  /   0   0   0  10  20
ALICE             83  54  81  51  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
ROCKPORT          77  58  73  50  61  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           82  53  79  52  61  /   0   0   0  10  20
KINGSVILLE        81  55  81  52  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  60  75  54  63  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 280836
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
236 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT
CONCERNING WEATHER THE NEXT THREE PERIODS...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
BEING ANY FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD NOT BE AS WARM
TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...SINCE WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE MORE ONSHORE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN (MAY START
OFF A BIT SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SHOULD NOT STAY SO FOR LONG). STILL AM
GOING TO GO MORE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TODAY AND TONIGHT...HENCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WILL NOT CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON FOG...AS
OVERALL AREA WHERE FOG WAS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WHEN COMPARING WITH
FORECAST RH FIELDS. AGAIN GOING ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN
MODEL 2 METER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MORE MOISTURE MEANS MORE CLOUDS
(BUT STILL GOING PARTLY CLOUDY) ON THURSDAY...HENCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AREA BUT SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED
AS MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND FRONT NO CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...GOOD BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. DEW POINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT AND COULD
GET TO WHERE SEA FOG WOULD BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SEA FOG FORMATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT THU NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPS TO S TX.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO KEPT ONLY SILENT 10 POPS FOR THU NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ON FRI RESULTING IN EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG MOISTURE TO ADVECT N ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE FRI. IN ADDITION...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS BAJA CA.
THUS...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC FOR THE WESTERN CWA FOR FRI. RAIN CHCS
INCREASE AND SPREAD E FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION AND PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH. MODEL SOLNS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS
E...RAIN CHCS DIMINSH FROM W TO E SUN THRU MON. CAA WILL LEAD TO
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S BY MON AND AROUND 40 DEGREES MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUE ADVECTING THE MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPS BACK INTO S TX. AS FOR WINDS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  57  79  51  64  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          79  54  77  49  60  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            83  58  81  55  67  /   0   0   0  10  20
ALICE             83  54  81  51  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
ROCKPORT          77  58  73  50  61  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           82  53  79  52  61  /   0   0   0  10  20
KINGSVILLE        81  55  81  52  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  60  75  54  63  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 280836
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
236 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT
CONCERNING WEATHER THE NEXT THREE PERIODS...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
BEING ANY FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD NOT BE AS WARM
TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...SINCE WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE MORE ONSHORE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN (MAY START
OFF A BIT SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SHOULD NOT STAY SO FOR LONG). STILL AM
GOING TO GO MORE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TODAY AND TONIGHT...HENCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WILL NOT CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON FOG...AS
OVERALL AREA WHERE FOG WAS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WHEN COMPARING WITH
FORECAST RH FIELDS. AGAIN GOING ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN
MODEL 2 METER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MORE MOISTURE MEANS MORE CLOUDS
(BUT STILL GOING PARTLY CLOUDY) ON THURSDAY...HENCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AREA BUT SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED
AS MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND FRONT NO CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...GOOD BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. DEW POINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT AND COULD
GET TO WHERE SEA FOG WOULD BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SEA FOG FORMATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT THU NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPS TO S TX.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO KEPT ONLY SILENT 10 POPS FOR THU NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ON FRI RESULTING IN EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG MOISTURE TO ADVECT N ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE FRI. IN ADDITION...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS BAJA CA.
THUS...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC FOR THE WESTERN CWA FOR FRI. RAIN CHCS
INCREASE AND SPREAD E FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION AND PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH. MODEL SOLNS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS
E...RAIN CHCS DIMINSH FROM W TO E SUN THRU MON. CAA WILL LEAD TO
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S BY MON AND AROUND 40 DEGREES MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUE ADVECTING THE MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPS BACK INTO S TX. AS FOR WINDS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  57  79  51  64  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          79  54  77  49  60  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            83  58  81  55  67  /   0   0   0  10  20
ALICE             83  54  81  51  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
ROCKPORT          77  58  73  50  61  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           82  53  79  52  61  /   0   0   0  10  20
KINGSVILLE        81  55  81  52  65  /   0   0   0  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  60  75  54  63  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 280449
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1049 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS RETURNING
TO THE REGION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  80  56  75  51  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          46  79  53  74  49  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  84  56  79  52  /   0   0   0  10  10
ALICE             48  82  53  76  51  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          49  72  56  68  50  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           47  83  51  77  50  /   0   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        48  80  55  75  52  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  75  57  69  52  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 280449
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1049 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS RETURNING
TO THE REGION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  80  56  75  51  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          46  79  53  74  49  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  84  56  79  52  /   0   0   0  10  10
ALICE             48  82  53  76  51  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          49  72  56  68  50  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           47  83  51  77  50  /   0   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        48  80  55  75  52  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  75  57  69  52  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION







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