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000
FXUS64 KCRP 280246
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
946 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR LATEST UPDATE TO THE
COASTAL FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
BUT HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
AND BAYS. WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING. THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AT 10 PM FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BUT WILL EXTEND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH A PWAT OF 2.15 INCHES. MODELS PROG EVEN
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT INLAND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...IT
WILL LIKELY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES INLAND.
IN ADDITION...AREAS OVER THE WESTERN CWA IS MORE STABLE. THEREFORE
HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BUT KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE MENTION
OF CONVECTION SHIFTING W AFTER 08Z. AS FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...MODELS PROG WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER 03Z BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLY EXTENDING THE ADVISORY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE COASTAL COOUNTIES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 08Z TO 14Z. THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURDAY. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY 14Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES BY 10Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORMING
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY 14Z. WILL
SHOW MVFR VSBYS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS.
COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE MARINE ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. SEAS HAVE
INCREASED TO 7 FT AT BUOY019 AND SITES ALONG THE COAST ARE
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 19-23KTS. AM EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEREFORE HAVE
EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES UNTIL
10 PM. IN ADDITION...REPORTS OF HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED AND AM EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...THUS HAVE ISSUED A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT. TIDE LEVELS
HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE MSL OR 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED...HOWEVER
TIDES ARE NOW FALLING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIDE LEVELS BUT AT
THIS TIME LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 2 FEET ABOVE MSL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...BIGGEST FORECAST
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS POPS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE. PWATS
ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH NESDIS`S BLENDED PW
ANALYSIS SHOWING NEAR 2.75 ROUGHLY 90 MILES ESE OF CORPUS. MODELED
VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER...BUT REGARDLESS...LOOKING TO BE QUITE WET.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 50S AND 60S OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
WATERS TOMORROW AND DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AS IT NOW SEEMS MORE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE
IT FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS SATELLITE ESTIMATED PRECIP
FROM SOME CONVECTION LAST NIGHT SE OF GALVESTON WAS ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 INCHES...AND THERE IS NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS WILL NOT PLAY OUT DURING THE FAVORED
PORTION OF THE DIURNAL PRECIP CYCLE DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST. HAVE BUMPED UP QPFS AS WELL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OPENS UP INTO
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND ENDING ENTIRELY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS DISTANCE SPECIFICS ARE
STILL QUITE SKETCHY...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUE/WED
FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND APPEAR TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE IMMEDIATE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST MAY BE
MODIFIED MORE THAN OTHER PLACES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  93  78  93  78  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          76  94  76  95  77  /  30  40  20  40  30
LAREDO            80 101  78 100  80  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  20  40  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  90  80  90  80  /  50  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           77 101  76  99  77  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  77  95  78  /  40  40  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  89  80  /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 280246
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
946 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR LATEST UPDATE TO THE
COASTAL FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
BUT HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
AND BAYS. WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING. THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AT 10 PM FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BUT WILL EXTEND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH A PWAT OF 2.15 INCHES. MODELS PROG EVEN
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT INLAND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...IT
WILL LIKELY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES INLAND.
IN ADDITION...AREAS OVER THE WESTERN CWA IS MORE STABLE. THEREFORE
HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BUT KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE MENTION
OF CONVECTION SHIFTING W AFTER 08Z. AS FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...MODELS PROG WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER 03Z BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLY EXTENDING THE ADVISORY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE COASTAL COOUNTIES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 08Z TO 14Z. THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURDAY. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY 14Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES BY 10Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORMING
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY 14Z. WILL
SHOW MVFR VSBYS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS.
COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE MARINE ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. SEAS HAVE
INCREASED TO 7 FT AT BUOY019 AND SITES ALONG THE COAST ARE
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 19-23KTS. AM EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEREFORE HAVE
EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES UNTIL
10 PM. IN ADDITION...REPORTS OF HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED AND AM EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...THUS HAVE ISSUED A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT. TIDE LEVELS
HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE MSL OR 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED...HOWEVER
TIDES ARE NOW FALLING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIDE LEVELS BUT AT
THIS TIME LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 2 FEET ABOVE MSL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...BIGGEST FORECAST
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS POPS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE. PWATS
ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH NESDIS`S BLENDED PW
ANALYSIS SHOWING NEAR 2.75 ROUGHLY 90 MILES ESE OF CORPUS. MODELED
VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER...BUT REGARDLESS...LOOKING TO BE QUITE WET.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 50S AND 60S OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
WATERS TOMORROW AND DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AS IT NOW SEEMS MORE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE
IT FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS SATELLITE ESTIMATED PRECIP
FROM SOME CONVECTION LAST NIGHT SE OF GALVESTON WAS ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 INCHES...AND THERE IS NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS WILL NOT PLAY OUT DURING THE FAVORED
PORTION OF THE DIURNAL PRECIP CYCLE DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST. HAVE BUMPED UP QPFS AS WELL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OPENS UP INTO
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND ENDING ENTIRELY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS DISTANCE SPECIFICS ARE
STILL QUITE SKETCHY...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUE/WED
FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND APPEAR TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE IMMEDIATE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST MAY BE
MODIFIED MORE THAN OTHER PLACES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  93  78  93  78  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          76  94  76  95  77  /  30  40  20  40  30
LAREDO            80 101  78 100  80  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  20  40  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  90  80  90  80  /  50  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           77 101  76  99  77  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  77  95  78  /  40  40  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  89  80  /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 280129
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
829 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH A PWAT OF 2.15 INCHES. MODELS PROG EVEN
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT INLAND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...IT
WILL LIKELY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES INLAND.
IN ADDITION...AREAS OVER THE WESTERN CWA IS MORE STABLE. THEREFORE
HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BUT KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE MENTION
OF CONVECTION SHIFTING W AFTER 08Z. AS FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...MODELS PROG WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER 03Z BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLY EXTENDING THE ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE COASTAL COOUNTIES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 08Z TO 14Z. THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURDAY. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY 14Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES BY 10Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORMING
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY 14Z. WILL
SHOW MVFR VSBYS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS.
COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE MARINE ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. SEAS HAVE
INCREASED TO 7 FT AT BUOY019 AND SITES ALONG THE COAST ARE
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 19-23KTS. AM EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEREFORE HAVE
EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES UNTIL
10 PM. IN ADDITION...REPORTS OF HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED AND AM EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...THUS HAVE ISSUED A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT. TIDE LEVELS
HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE MSL OR 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED...HOWEVER
TIDES ARE NOW FALLING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIDE LEVELS BUT AT
THIS TIME LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 2 FEET ABOVE MSL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...BIGGEST FORECAST
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS POPS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE. PWATS
ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH NESDIS`S BLENDED PW
ANALYSIS SHOWING NEAR 2.75 ROUGHLY 90 MILES ESE OF CORPUS. MODELED
VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER...BUT REGARDLESS...LOOKING TO BE QUITE WET.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 50S AND 60S OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
WATERS TOMORROW AND DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AS IT NOW SEEMS MORE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE
IT FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS SATELLITE ESTIMATED PRECIP
FROM SOME CONVECTION LAST NIGHT SE OF GALVESTON WAS ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 INCHES...AND THERE IS NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS WILL NOT PLAY OUT DURING THE FAVORED
PORTION OF THE DIURNAL PRECIP CYCLE DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST. HAVE BUMPED UP QPFS AS WELL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OPENS UP INTO
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND ENDING ENTIRELY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS DISTANCE SPECIFICS ARE
STILL QUITE SKETCHY...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUE/WED
FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND APPEAR TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE IMMEDIATE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST MAY BE
MODIFIED MORE THAN OTHER PLACES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  93  78  93  78  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          76  94  76  95  77  /  30  40  20  40  30
LAREDO            80 101  78 100  80  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  20  40  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  90  80  90  80  /  50  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           77 101  76  99  77  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  77  95  78  /  40  40  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  89  80  /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 272351 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
651 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE COASTAL COOUNTIES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 08Z TO 14Z. THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURDAY. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY 14Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES BY 10Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORMING
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY 14Z. WILL
SHOW MVFR VSBYS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS.
COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH TSRA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE MARINE ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. SEAS HAVE
INCREASED TO 7 FT AT BUOY019 AND SITES ALONG THE COAST ARE
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 19-23KTS. AM EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEREFORE HAVE
EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES UNTIL
10 PM. IN ADDITION...REPORTS OF HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED AND AM EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...THUS HAVE ISSUED A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT. TIDE LEVELS
HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE MSL OR 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED...HOWEVER
TIDES ARE NOW FALLING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIDE LEVELS BUT AT
THIS TIME LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 2 FEET ABOVE MSL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...BIGGEST FORECAST
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS POPS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE. PWATS
ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH NESDIS`S BLENDED PW
ANALYSIS SHOWING NEAR 2.75 ROUGHLY 90 MILES ESE OF CORPUS. MODELED
VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER...BUT REGARDLESS...LOOKING TO BE QUITE WET.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 50S AND 60S OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
WATERS TOMORROW AND DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AS IT NOW SEEMS MORE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE
IT FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS SATELLITE ESTIMATED PRECIP
FROM SOME CONVECTION LAST NIGHT SE OF GALVESTON WAS ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 INCHES...AND THERE IS NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS WILL NOT PLAY OUT DURING THE FAVORED
PORTION OF THE DIURNAL PRECIP CYCLE DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST. HAVE BUMPED UP QPFS AS WELL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OPENS UP INTO
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND ENDING ENTIRELY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS DISTANCE SPECIFICS ARE
STILL QUITE SKETCHY...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUE/WED
FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND APPEAR TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE IMMEDIATE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST MAY BE
MODIFIED MORE THAN OTHER PLACES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  93  78  93  78  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          76  94  76  95  77  /  30  40  20  40  30
LAREDO            80 101  78 100  80  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  20  40  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  90  80  90  80  /  50  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           77 101  76  99  77  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  77  95  78  /  40  40  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  89  80  /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 272351 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
651 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE COASTAL COOUNTIES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 08Z TO 14Z. THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURDAY. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY 14Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES BY 10Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORMING
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY 14Z. WILL
SHOW MVFR VSBYS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS.
COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH TSRA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE MARINE ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. SEAS HAVE
INCREASED TO 7 FT AT BUOY019 AND SITES ALONG THE COAST ARE
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 19-23KTS. AM EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEREFORE HAVE
EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES UNTIL
10 PM. IN ADDITION...REPORTS OF HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED AND AM EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...THUS HAVE ISSUED A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT. TIDE LEVELS
HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE MSL OR 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED...HOWEVER
TIDES ARE NOW FALLING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIDE LEVELS BUT AT
THIS TIME LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 2 FEET ABOVE MSL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...BIGGEST FORECAST
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS POPS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE. PWATS
ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH NESDIS`S BLENDED PW
ANALYSIS SHOWING NEAR 2.75 ROUGHLY 90 MILES ESE OF CORPUS. MODELED
VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER...BUT REGARDLESS...LOOKING TO BE QUITE WET.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 50S AND 60S OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
WATERS TOMORROW AND DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AS IT NOW SEEMS MORE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE
IT FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS SATELLITE ESTIMATED PRECIP
FROM SOME CONVECTION LAST NIGHT SE OF GALVESTON WAS ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 INCHES...AND THERE IS NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS WILL NOT PLAY OUT DURING THE FAVORED
PORTION OF THE DIURNAL PRECIP CYCLE DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST. HAVE BUMPED UP QPFS AS WELL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OPENS UP INTO
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND ENDING ENTIRELY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS DISTANCE SPECIFICS ARE
STILL QUITE SKETCHY...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUE/WED
FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND APPEAR TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE IMMEDIATE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST MAY BE
MODIFIED MORE THAN OTHER PLACES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  93  78  93  78  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          76  94  76  95  77  /  30  40  20  40  30
LAREDO            80 101  78 100  80  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  20  40  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  90  80  90  80  /  50  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           77 101  76  99  77  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  77  95  78  /  40  40  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  89  80  /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 272227
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
527 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE MARINE ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. SEAS HAVE
INCREASED TO 7 FT AT BUOY019 AND SITES ALONG THE COAST ARE
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 19-23KTS. AM EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEREFORE HAVE
EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES UNTIL
10 PM. IN ADDITION...REPORTS OF HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED AND AM EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...THUS HAVE ISSUED A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT. TIDE LEVELS
HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE MSL OR 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED...HOWEVER
TIDES ARE NOW FALLING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIDE LEVELS BUT AT
THIS TIME LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 2 FEET ABOVE MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...BIGGEST FORECAST
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS POPS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE. PWATS
ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH NESDIS`S BLENDED PW
ANALYSIS SHOWING NEAR 2.75 ROUGHLY 90 MILES ESE OF CORPUS. MODELED
VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER...BUT REGARDLESS...LOOKING TO BE QUITE WET.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 50S AND 60S OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
WATERS TOMORROW AND DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AS IT NOW SEEMS MORE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE
IT FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS SATELLITE ESTIMATED PRECIP
FROM SOME CONVECTION LAST NIGHT SE OF GALVESTON WAS ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 INCHES...AND THERE IS NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS WILL NOT PLAY OUT DURING THE FAVORED
PORTION OF THE DIURNAL PRECIP CYCLE DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST. HAVE BUMPED UP QPFS AS WELL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OPENS UP INTO
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND ENDING ENTIRELY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS DISTANCE SPECIFICS ARE
STILL QUITE SKETCHY...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUE/WED
FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND APPEAR TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE IMMEDIATE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST MAY BE
MODIFIED MORE THAN OTHER PLACES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  93  78  93  78  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          76  94  76  95  77  /  30  40  20  40  30
LAREDO            80 101  78 100  80  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  20  40  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  90  80  90  80  /  50  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           77 101  76  99  77  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  77  95  78  /  40  40  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  89  80  /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 272227
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
527 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE MARINE ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. SEAS HAVE
INCREASED TO 7 FT AT BUOY019 AND SITES ALONG THE COAST ARE
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 19-23KTS. AM EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEREFORE HAVE
EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES UNTIL
10 PM. IN ADDITION...REPORTS OF HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED AND AM EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...THUS HAVE ISSUED A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT. TIDE LEVELS
HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE MSL OR 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED...HOWEVER
TIDES ARE NOW FALLING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIDE LEVELS BUT AT
THIS TIME LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 2 FEET ABOVE MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...BIGGEST FORECAST
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS POPS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE. PWATS
ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH NESDIS`S BLENDED PW
ANALYSIS SHOWING NEAR 2.75 ROUGHLY 90 MILES ESE OF CORPUS. MODELED
VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER...BUT REGARDLESS...LOOKING TO BE QUITE WET.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 50S AND 60S OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
WATERS TOMORROW AND DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AS IT NOW SEEMS MORE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE
IT FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS SATELLITE ESTIMATED PRECIP
FROM SOME CONVECTION LAST NIGHT SE OF GALVESTON WAS ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 INCHES...AND THERE IS NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS WILL NOT PLAY OUT DURING THE FAVORED
PORTION OF THE DIURNAL PRECIP CYCLE DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST. HAVE BUMPED UP QPFS AS WELL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OPENS UP INTO
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND ENDING ENTIRELY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS DISTANCE SPECIFICS ARE
STILL QUITE SKETCHY...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUE/WED
FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND APPEAR TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE IMMEDIATE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST MAY BE
MODIFIED MORE THAN OTHER PLACES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  93  78  93  78  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          76  94  76  95  77  /  30  40  20  40  30
LAREDO            80 101  78 100  80  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  20  40  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  90  80  90  80  /  50  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           77 101  76  99  77  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  77  95  78  /  40  40  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  89  80  /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 272038
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...BIGGEST FORECAST
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS POPS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE. PWATS
ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH NESDIS`S BLENDED PW
ANALYSIS SHOWING NEAR 2.75 ROUGHLY 90 MILES ESE OF CORPUS. MODELED
VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER...BUT REGARDLESS...LOOKING TO BE QUITE WET.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 50S AND 60S OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
WATERS TOMORROW AND DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AS IT NOW SEEMS MORE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE
IT FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS SATELLITE ESTIMATED PRECIP
FROM SOME CONVECTION LAST NIGHT SE OF GALVESTON WAS ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 INCHES...AND THERE IS NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS WILL NOT PLAY OUT DURING THE FAVORED
PORTION OF THE DIURNAL PRECIP CYCLE DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST. HAVE BUMPED UP QPFS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OPENS UP INTO
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND ENDING ENTIRELY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS DISTANCE SPECIFICS ARE
STILL QUITE SKETCHY...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUE/WED
FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND APPEAR TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE IMMEDIATE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST MAY BE
MODIFIED MORE THAN OTHER PLACES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  93  78  93  78  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          76  94  76  95  77  /  30  40  20  40  30
LAREDO            80 101  78 100  80  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  20  40  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  90  80  90  80  /  50  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           77 101  76  99  77  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  77  95  78  /  40  40  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  89  80  /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

IB/90...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271727
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PROLONGED THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF VCTS UNTIL 21Z. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE IS BECOME LESS OPTIMISTIC OF ACTIVITY TODAY...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BROAD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES WEST AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014
 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES. THE LOW OFF JUST OFF THE
COAST HAS A GOOD SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS BRINGING
STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BLOSSOMING OF CUMULUS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF U.2. 281...GIVING A GOOD IMPRESSION OF THE GENERAL AREA WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND THE WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW
INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER...SO THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. ONE RESULT IS SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...PATCHY BR HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF TEMPO GROUND FOR
MVFR VSBYS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL BEND/PLAINS. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AT THE CRP/VCT TAF SITE WHERE VCSH
AND VCTS REMARKS WERE INCLUDED. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY A VFR FORECAST
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE
HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 2.00
INCH PW ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING A GOOD BIT OF
WIND SHEAR SO CHANCES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TODAY INTO TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATER
AND COASTAL BEND REGION. POPS RANGE FROM NON-MENTIONABLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST WHERE NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER. SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED...TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINING AND GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LIMITED MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW MAINLY CONFINED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SEA BREEZE. MODELS
PROG A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IF
ANY. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BEGINNING TO REACH TO 105-109F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI   MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
VICTORIA         MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
LAREDO           MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
ALICE            MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
ROCKPORT         MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
COTULLA          MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
KINGSVILLE       MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
NAVY CORPUS      MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

XX/99...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 271727
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PROLONGED THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF VCTS UNTIL 21Z. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE IS BECOME LESS OPTIMISTIC OF ACTIVITY TODAY...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BROAD AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES WEST AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014
 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES. THE LOW OFF JUST OFF THE
COAST HAS A GOOD SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS BRINGING
STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BLOSSOMING OF CUMULUS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF U.2. 281...GIVING A GOOD IMPRESSION OF THE GENERAL AREA WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND THE WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW
INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER...SO THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. ONE RESULT IS SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...PATCHY BR HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF TEMPO GROUND FOR
MVFR VSBYS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL BEND/PLAINS. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AT THE CRP/VCT TAF SITE WHERE VCSH
AND VCTS REMARKS WERE INCLUDED. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY A VFR FORECAST
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE
HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 2.00
INCH PW ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING A GOOD BIT OF
WIND SHEAR SO CHANCES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TODAY INTO TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATER
AND COASTAL BEND REGION. POPS RANGE FROM NON-MENTIONABLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST WHERE NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER. SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED...TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINING AND GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LIMITED MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW MAINLY CONFINED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SEA BREEZE. MODELS
PROG A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IF
ANY. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BEGINNING TO REACH TO 105-109F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI   MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
VICTORIA         MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
LAREDO           MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
ALICE            MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
ROCKPORT         MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
COTULLA          MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
KINGSVILLE       MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
NAVY CORPUS      MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM  / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

XX/99...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271616
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1116 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES. THE LOW OFF JUST OFF THE
COAST HAS A GOOD SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS BRINGING
STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BLOSSOMING OF CUMULUS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF U.2. 281...GIVING A GOOD IMPRESSION OF THE GENERAL AREA WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND THE WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW
INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER...SO THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. ONE RESULT IS SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...PATCHY BR HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF TEMPO GROUND FOR
MVFR VSBYS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL BEND/PLAINS. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AT THE CRP/VCT TAF SITE WHERE VCSH
AND VCTS REMARKS WERE INCLUDED. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY A VFR FORECAST
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE
HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 2.00
INCH PW ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING A GOOD BIT OF
WIND SHEAR SO CHANCES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TODAY INTO TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATER
AND COASTAL BEND REGION. POPS RANGE FROM NON-MENTIONABLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST WHERE NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER. SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED...TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINING AND GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LIMITED MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW MAINLY CONFINED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SEA BREEZE. MODELS
PROG A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IF
ANY. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BEGINNING TO REACH TO 105-109F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  78  93  78  92  /  40  30  40  30  40
VICTORIA          96  76  94  76  94  /  50  30  40  30  40
LAREDO           102  80 101  80  99  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             97  76  97  77  94  /  30  20  40  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  80  90  80  89  /  50  40  40  30  40
COTULLA          100  77 101  76  98  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        97  76  96  77  94  /  40  20  40  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  89  80  88  /  50  40  40  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

XX/99...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 271616
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1116 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES. THE LOW OFF JUST OFF THE
COAST HAS A GOOD SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS BRINGING
STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BLOSSOMING OF CUMULUS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF U.2. 281...GIVING A GOOD IMPRESSION OF THE GENERAL AREA WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND THE WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW
INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER...SO THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. ONE RESULT IS SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...PATCHY BR HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF TEMPO GROUND FOR
MVFR VSBYS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL BEND/PLAINS. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AT THE CRP/VCT TAF SITE WHERE VCSH
AND VCTS REMARKS WERE INCLUDED. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY A VFR FORECAST
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE
HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 2.00
INCH PW ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING A GOOD BIT OF
WIND SHEAR SO CHANCES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TODAY INTO TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATER
AND COASTAL BEND REGION. POPS RANGE FROM NON-MENTIONABLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST WHERE NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER. SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED...TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINING AND GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LIMITED MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW MAINLY CONFINED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SEA BREEZE. MODELS
PROG A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IF
ANY. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BEGINNING TO REACH TO 105-109F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  78  93  78  92  /  40  30  40  30  40
VICTORIA          96  76  94  76  94  /  50  30  40  30  40
LAREDO           102  80 101  80  99  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             97  76  97  77  94  /  30  20  40  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  80  90  80  89  /  50  40  40  30  40
COTULLA          100  77 101  76  98  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        97  76  96  77  94  /  40  20  40  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  89  80  88  /  50  40  40  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

XX/99...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271137 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY BR HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF TEMPO GROUND FOR
MVFR VSBYS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL BEND/PLAINS. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AT THE CRP/VCT TAF SITE WHERE VCSH
AND VCTS REMARKS WERE INCLUDED. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY A VFR FORECAST
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE
HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 2.00
INCH PW ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING A GOOD BIT OF
WIND SHEAR SO CHANCES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TODAY INTO TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATER
AND COASTAL BEND REGION. POPS RANGE FROM NON-MENTIONABLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST WHERE NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER. SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED...TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINING AND GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LIMITED MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW MAINLY CONFINED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SEA BREEZE. MODELS
PROG A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IF
ANY. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BEGINNING TO REACH TO 105-109F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  78  93  78  92  /  40  30  40  30  40
VICTORIA          96  76  94  76  94  /  50  30  40  30  40
LAREDO           102  80 101  80  99  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             97  76  97  77  94  /  30  20  40  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  80  90  80  89  /  50  40  40  30  40
COTULLA          100  77 101  76  98  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        97  76  96  77  94  /  40  20  40  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  89  80  88  /  50  40  40  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271137 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY BR HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF TEMPO GROUND FOR
MVFR VSBYS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL BEND/PLAINS. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AT THE CRP/VCT TAF SITE WHERE VCSH
AND VCTS REMARKS WERE INCLUDED. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY A VFR FORECAST
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE
HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 2.00
INCH PW ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING A GOOD BIT OF
WIND SHEAR SO CHANCES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TODAY INTO TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATER
AND COASTAL BEND REGION. POPS RANGE FROM NON-MENTIONABLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST WHERE NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER. SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED...TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINING AND GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LIMITED MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW MAINLY CONFINED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SEA BREEZE. MODELS
PROG A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IF
ANY. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BEGINNING TO REACH TO 105-109F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  78  93  78  92  /  40  30  40  30  40
VICTORIA          96  76  94  76  94  /  50  30  40  30  40
LAREDO           102  80 101  80  99  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             97  76  97  77  94  /  30  20  40  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  80  90  80  89  /  50  40  40  30  40
COTULLA          100  77 101  76  98  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        97  76  96  77  94  /  40  20  40  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  89  80  88  /  50  40  40  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270903
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE
HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 2.00
INCH PW ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING A GOOD BIT OF
WIND SHEAR SO CHANCES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TODAY INTO TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATER
AND COASTAL BEND REGION. POPS RANGE FROM NON-MENTIONABLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST WHERE NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER. SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED...TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINING AND GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LIMITED MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW MAINLY CONFINED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SEA BREEZE. MODELS
PROG A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IF
ANY. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BEGINNING TO REACH TO 105-109F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  78  91  78  91  /  40  30  40  30  40
VICTORIA          95  77  92  76  92  /  50  30  40  30  40
LAREDO           102  80 100  80  99  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             98  76  95  77  94  /  30  20  40  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  80  88  80  88  /  50  40  40  30  40
COTULLA          100  76 100  76  98  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        97  76  94  77  93  /  40  20  40  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  87  80  88  /  50  40  40  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270903
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE
HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 2.00
INCH PW ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING A GOOD BIT OF
WIND SHEAR SO CHANCES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TODAY INTO TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATER
AND COASTAL BEND REGION. POPS RANGE FROM NON-MENTIONABLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST WHERE NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER. SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED...TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINING AND GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LIMITED MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW MAINLY CONFINED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SEA BREEZE. MODELS
PROG A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IF
ANY. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BEGINNING TO REACH TO 105-109F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  78  91  78  91  /  40  30  40  30  40
VICTORIA          95  77  92  76  92  /  50  30  40  30  40
LAREDO           102  80 100  80  99  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             98  76  95  77  94  /  30  20  40  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  80  88  80  88  /  50  40  40  30  40
COTULLA          100  76 100  76  98  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        97  76  94  77  93  /  40  20  40  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  87  80  88  /  50  40  40  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 270537 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS REMARKS AT CRP/VCT. WILL PREVAIL OR
TEMPO SHRA/TSRA IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS/STORMS DIRECTLY
IMPACT A TAF SITE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES. THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE REGION UP TO 2 INCHES...WHILE GOES
SOUNDER SHOWS HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE MID LEVEL LOW. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF NAM/GFS SHOWED AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HI RES MODELS FROM TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR SHOWED
AREAS OF CONVECTION INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY APPROACH
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...SHOWERS MAINLY ENDING THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE A FEW
REMAINING BETWEEN ALI AND COT. THESE WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD HAVE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL CU DEVELOP...BUT DONT EXPECT
A CIG CONDITION. WITH MORE MOISTURE BUILDING IN AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER DISTURBANCE...WILL CONTINUE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TOMORROW
FOR CRP/VCT TAF SITES. ALI WOULD HAVE SMALLER CHANCE...TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS THIS SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING ACTIVITY
OVER INLAND AREAS TO END AROUND OR BEFORE SUNSET...WITH ACTIVITY
PICKING UP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS/GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY LINGER A BIT MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIE OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. THEN...SHOULD BE SEEING
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SPREADING FARTHER INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. AM
GOING TO GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS DO EXPECT
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER MOST INLAND AREAS (OBVIOUSLY THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ISOLATED FARTHER
WEST). WILL LIKELY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IN THE
EVENING...THEN START UP AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARM-UP IN OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AREAS.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING IN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WITH RESPECT TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE FRIDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
MOVES ACRS THE SRN PLAINS/NRN AND CNTRL TX. SELECT GFS DETERMINISTIC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COPIOUS MSTR/VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. YET...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA BEGINNING SUNDAY/
MONDAY. THUS...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (OWING TO
COPIOUS MSTR AND TO UPPER/SFC FORCING) WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
(EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION) THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND NO PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY. ANTICIPATE
LOWER MAX TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE
AFTERWARD. ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-109F MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  78  91  78  91  /  40  30  40  30  40
VICTORIA          95  77  92  76  92  /  50  30  40  30  40
LAREDO           102  80 100  80  99  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             98  76  95  77  94  /  30  20  30  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  80  88  80  88  /  50  40  40  30  40
COTULLA          100  76 100  76  98  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        97  76  94  77  93  /  40  20  40  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  87  80  88  /  50  40  40  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270537 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS REMARKS AT CRP/VCT. WILL PREVAIL OR
TEMPO SHRA/TSRA IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS/STORMS DIRECTLY
IMPACT A TAF SITE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES. THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE REGION UP TO 2 INCHES...WHILE GOES
SOUNDER SHOWS HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE MID LEVEL LOW. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF NAM/GFS SHOWED AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HI RES MODELS FROM TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR SHOWED
AREAS OF CONVECTION INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY APPROACH
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...SHOWERS MAINLY ENDING THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE A FEW
REMAINING BETWEEN ALI AND COT. THESE WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD HAVE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL CU DEVELOP...BUT DONT EXPECT
A CIG CONDITION. WITH MORE MOISTURE BUILDING IN AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER DISTURBANCE...WILL CONTINUE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TOMORROW
FOR CRP/VCT TAF SITES. ALI WOULD HAVE SMALLER CHANCE...TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS THIS SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING ACTIVITY
OVER INLAND AREAS TO END AROUND OR BEFORE SUNSET...WITH ACTIVITY
PICKING UP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS/GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY LINGER A BIT MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIE OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. THEN...SHOULD BE SEEING
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SPREADING FARTHER INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. AM
GOING TO GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS DO EXPECT
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER MOST INLAND AREAS (OBVIOUSLY THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ISOLATED FARTHER
WEST). WILL LIKELY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IN THE
EVENING...THEN START UP AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARM-UP IN OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AREAS.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING IN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WITH RESPECT TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE FRIDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
MOVES ACRS THE SRN PLAINS/NRN AND CNTRL TX. SELECT GFS DETERMINISTIC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COPIOUS MSTR/VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. YET...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA BEGINNING SUNDAY/
MONDAY. THUS...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (OWING TO
COPIOUS MSTR AND TO UPPER/SFC FORCING) WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
(EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION) THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND NO PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY. ANTICIPATE
LOWER MAX TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE
AFTERWARD. ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-109F MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  78  91  78  91  /  40  30  40  30  40
VICTORIA          95  77  92  76  92  /  50  30  40  30  40
LAREDO           102  80 100  80  99  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             98  76  95  77  94  /  30  20  30  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  80  88  80  88  /  50  40  40  30  40
COTULLA          100  76 100  76  98  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        97  76  94  77  93  /  40  20  40  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  87  80  88  /  50  40  40  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 270243 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
943 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES. THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE REGION UP TO 2 INCHES...WHILE GOES
SOUNDER SHOWS HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE MID LEVEL LOW. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF NAM/GFS SHOWED AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HI RES MODELS FROM TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR SHOWED
AREAS OF CONVECTION INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY APPROACH
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...SHOWERS MAINLY ENDING THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE A FEW
REMAINING BETWEEN ALI AND COT. THESE WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD HAVE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL CU DEVELOP...BUT DONT EXPECT
A CIG CONDITION. WITH MORE MOISTURE BUILDING IN AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER DISTURBANCE...WILL CONTINUE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TOMORROW
FOR CRP/VCT TAF SITES. ALI WOULD HAVE SMALLER CHANCE...TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS THIS SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING ACTIVITY
OVER INLAND AREAS TO END AROUND OR BEFORE SUNSET...WITH ACTIVITY
PICKING UP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS/GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY LINGER A BIT MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIE OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. THEN...SHOULD BE SEEING
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SPREADING FARTHER INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. AM
GOING TO GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS DO EXPECT
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER MOST INLAND AREAS (OBVIOUSLY THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ISOLATED FARTHER
WEST). WILL LIKELY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IN THE
EVENING...THEN START UP AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARM-UP IN OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AREAS.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING IN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WITH RESPECT TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE FRIDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
MOVES ACRS THE SRN PLAINS/NRN AND CNTRL TX. SELECT GFS DETERMINISTIC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COPIOUS MSTR/VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. YET...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA BEGINNING SUNDAY/
MONDAY. THUS...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (OWING TO
COPIOUS MSTR AND TO UPPER/SFC FORCING) WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
(EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION) THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND NO PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY. ANTICIPATE
LOWER MAX TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE
AFTERWARD. ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-109F MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  91  78  /  20  40  30  40  30
VICTORIA          76  95  77  92  76  /  20  50  30  40  30
LAREDO            79 102  80 100  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             75  98  76  95  77  /  10  30  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  88  80  /  20  50  40  40  30
COTULLA           76 100  76 100  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        75  97  76  94  77  /  10  40  20  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  81  87  80  /  20  50  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270243 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
943 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES. THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE REGION UP TO 2 INCHES...WHILE GOES
SOUNDER SHOWS HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE MID LEVEL LOW. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF NAM/GFS SHOWED AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HI RES MODELS FROM TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR SHOWED
AREAS OF CONVECTION INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY APPROACH
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...SHOWERS MAINLY ENDING THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE A FEW
REMAINING BETWEEN ALI AND COT. THESE WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD HAVE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL CU DEVELOP...BUT DONT EXPECT
A CIG CONDITION. WITH MORE MOISTURE BUILDING IN AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER DISTURBANCE...WILL CONTINUE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TOMORROW
FOR CRP/VCT TAF SITES. ALI WOULD HAVE SMALLER CHANCE...TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS THIS SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING ACTIVITY
OVER INLAND AREAS TO END AROUND OR BEFORE SUNSET...WITH ACTIVITY
PICKING UP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS/GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY LINGER A BIT MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIE OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. THEN...SHOULD BE SEEING
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SPREADING FARTHER INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. AM
GOING TO GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS DO EXPECT
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER MOST INLAND AREAS (OBVIOUSLY THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ISOLATED FARTHER
WEST). WILL LIKELY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IN THE
EVENING...THEN START UP AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARM-UP IN OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AREAS.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING IN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WITH RESPECT TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE FRIDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
MOVES ACRS THE SRN PLAINS/NRN AND CNTRL TX. SELECT GFS DETERMINISTIC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COPIOUS MSTR/VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. YET...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA BEGINNING SUNDAY/
MONDAY. THUS...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (OWING TO
COPIOUS MSTR AND TO UPPER/SFC FORCING) WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
(EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION) THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND NO PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY. ANTICIPATE
LOWER MAX TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE
AFTERWARD. ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-109F MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  91  78  /  20  40  30  40  30
VICTORIA          76  95  77  92  76  /  20  50  30  40  30
LAREDO            79 102  80 100  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             75  98  76  95  77  /  10  30  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  88  80  /  20  50  40  40  30
COTULLA           76 100  76 100  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        75  97  76  94  77  /  10  40  20  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  81  87  80  /  20  50  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 262336
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS MAINLY ENDING THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE A FEW
REMAINING BETWEEN ALI AND COT. THESE WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD HAVE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL CU DEVELOP...BUT DONT EXPECT
A CIG CONDITION. WITH MORE MOISTURE BUILDING IN AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER DISTURBANCE...WILL CONTINUE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TOMORROW
FOR CRP/VCT TAF SITES. ALI WOULD HAVE SMALLER CHANCE...TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS THIS SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING ACTIVITY
OVER INLAND AREAS TO END AROUND OR BEFORE SUNSET...WITH ACTIVITY
PICKING UP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS/GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY LINGER A BIT MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIE OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. THEN...SHOULD BE SEEING
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SPREADING FARTHER INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. AM
GOING TO GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS DO EXPECT
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER MOST INLAND AREAS (OBVIOUSLY THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ISOLATED FARTHER
WEST). WILL LIKELY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IN THE
EVENING...THEN START UP AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARM-UP IN OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AREAS.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING IN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WITH RESPECT TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE FRIDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
MOVES ACRS THE SRN PLAINS/NRN AND CNTRL TX. SELECT GFS DETERMINISTIC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COPIOUS MSTR/VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. YET...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA BEGINNING SUNDAY/
MONDAY. THUS...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (OWING TO
COPIOUS MSTR AND TO UPPER/SFC FORCING) WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
(EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION) THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND NO PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY. ANTICIPATE
LOWER MAX TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE
AFTERWARD. ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-109F MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  91  78  /  20  40  30  40  30
VICTORIA          76  95  77  92  76  /  20  50  30  40  30
LAREDO            79 102  80 100  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             75  98  76  95  77  /  10  30  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  88  80  /  20  50  40  40  30
COTULLA           76 100  76 100  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        75  97  76  94  77  /  10  40  20  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  81  87  80  /  20  50  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 262336
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS MAINLY ENDING THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE A FEW
REMAINING BETWEEN ALI AND COT. THESE WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD HAVE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL CU DEVELOP...BUT DONT EXPECT
A CIG CONDITION. WITH MORE MOISTURE BUILDING IN AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER DISTURBANCE...WILL CONTINUE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TOMORROW
FOR CRP/VCT TAF SITES. ALI WOULD HAVE SMALLER CHANCE...TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS THIS SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING ACTIVITY
OVER INLAND AREAS TO END AROUND OR BEFORE SUNSET...WITH ACTIVITY
PICKING UP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS/GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY LINGER A BIT MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIE OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. THEN...SHOULD BE SEEING
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SPREADING FARTHER INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. AM
GOING TO GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS DO EXPECT
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER MOST INLAND AREAS (OBVIOUSLY THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ISOLATED FARTHER
WEST). WILL LIKELY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IN THE
EVENING...THEN START UP AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARM-UP IN OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AREAS.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING IN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WITH RESPECT TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE FRIDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
MOVES ACRS THE SRN PLAINS/NRN AND CNTRL TX. SELECT GFS DETERMINISTIC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COPIOUS MSTR/VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. YET...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA BEGINNING SUNDAY/
MONDAY. THUS...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (OWING TO
COPIOUS MSTR AND TO UPPER/SFC FORCING) WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
(EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION) THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND NO PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY. ANTICIPATE
LOWER MAX TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE
AFTERWARD. ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-109F MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  91  78  /  20  40  30  40  30
VICTORIA          76  95  77  92  76  /  20  50  30  40  30
LAREDO            79 102  80 100  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             75  98  76  95  77  /  10  30  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  88  80  /  20  50  40  40  30
COTULLA           76 100  76 100  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        75  97  76  94  77  /  10  40  20  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  81  87  80  /  20  50  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 262052
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING ACTIVITY
OVER INLAND AREAS TO END AROUND OR BEFORE SUNSET...WITH ACTIVITY
PICKING UP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS/GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY LINGER A BIT MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIE OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. THEN...SHOULD BE SEEING
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SPREADING FARTHER INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. AM
GOING TO GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS DO EXPECT
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER MOST INLAND AREAS (OBVIOUSLY THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ISOLATED FARTHER
WEST). WILL LIKELY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IN THE
EVENING...THEN START UP AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARM-UP IN OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AREAS.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING IN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WITH RESPECT TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE FRIDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
MOVES ACRS THE SRN PLAINS/NRN AND CNTRL TX. SELECT GFS DETERMINISTIC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COPIOUS MSTR/VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER THE
CWA/MSA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. YET...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA BEGINNING SUNDAY/
MONDAY. THUS...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (OWING TO
COPIOUS MSTR AND TO UPPER/SFC FORCING) WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
(EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION) THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND NO PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY. ANTICIPATE
LOWER MAX TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE
AFTERWARD. ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-109F MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  93  78  /  20  30  40  40  30
VICTORIA          76  95  76  95  77  /  20  30  30  40  30
LAREDO            79 102  79 102  80  /  10  20  10  20  10
ALICE             75  99  76  97  77  /  10  30  30  30  30
ROCKPORT          80  89  80  93  80  /  20  40  40  40  40
COTULLA           77 101  76 102  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        78  97  78  95  77  /  20  30  30  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  93  80  /  20  40  40  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 261656 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1156 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. DID NOT NEEDED CHANGES
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS OVERALL FORECAST IS FINE ON MAJOR
PARAMETERS.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL ONLY MENTION THUNDER AT KVCT AND KCRP IN
TERMINALS WHERE CONVECTION IS ALREADY APPROACHING KVCT TERMINAL
AND WHERE CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN KCRP TERMINAL NOT AS GREAT SINCE MOISTURE
IS NOT AS GOOD AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING 4KM) SAYING IT
WILL STAY OUT OF KCRP BUT COME CLOSE. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE VFR
OUTSIDE OF THUNDER WITH EAST WINDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAYBE LIGHT
NORTHEAST) FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. WITH BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH WEDNESDAY...WILL MENTION VCTS FOR KCRP AND KVCT AOA 15Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO AT THIS TIME. FOR
BREVITY...WILL LEAVE OUT PROB30 AS WELL SINCE UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE. MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE CHANGES THOUGH BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM ALI-VCT.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FROM CRP-VCT THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...REACHING AS FAR WEST TO NEAR ALI THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TO WANE FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REACHING 10-15KT IN THE
AFTERNOON (EARLY EVENING FOR LRD)...THEN DECOUPLING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER...PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 2.2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHILE ACROSS THE WEST PWATS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8
INCHES. WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...WILL EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FURTHER WEST THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND REDEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE EASTERN SITES TODAY...WITH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FURTHER WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DESPITE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING...SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. POP CHANCES WILL
PEAK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FORECASTS)...WITH ISOLATED CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS MAY BE SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES. WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY OUT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA...HI VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF THE REGION THURSDAY TO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  77  95  78  93  /  20  20  30  40  40
VICTORIA          95  76  95  76  95  /  40  20  30  30  40
LAREDO           103  79 102  79 102  /  10  10  20  10  20
ALICE             98  75  99  76  97  /  20  10  30  30  30
ROCKPORT          89  80  89  80  93  /  30  20  40  40  40
COTULLA          102  77 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        97  78  97  78  95  /  20  20  30  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  89  80  93  /  30  20  40  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 261656 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1156 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. DID NOT NEEDED CHANGES
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS OVERALL FORECAST IS FINE ON MAJOR
PARAMETERS.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL ONLY MENTION THUNDER AT KVCT AND KCRP IN
TERMINALS WHERE CONVECTION IS ALREADY APPROACHING KVCT TERMINAL
AND WHERE CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN KCRP TERMINAL NOT AS GREAT SINCE MOISTURE
IS NOT AS GOOD AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING 4KM) SAYING IT
WILL STAY OUT OF KCRP BUT COME CLOSE. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE VFR
OUTSIDE OF THUNDER WITH EAST WINDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAYBE LIGHT
NORTHEAST) FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. WITH BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH WEDNESDAY...WILL MENTION VCTS FOR KCRP AND KVCT AOA 15Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO AT THIS TIME. FOR
BREVITY...WILL LEAVE OUT PROB30 AS WELL SINCE UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE. MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE CHANGES THOUGH BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM ALI-VCT.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FROM CRP-VCT THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...REACHING AS FAR WEST TO NEAR ALI THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TO WANE FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REACHING 10-15KT IN THE
AFTERNOON (EARLY EVENING FOR LRD)...THEN DECOUPLING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER...PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 2.2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHILE ACROSS THE WEST PWATS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8
INCHES. WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...WILL EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FURTHER WEST THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND REDEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE EASTERN SITES TODAY...WITH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FURTHER WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DESPITE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING...SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. POP CHANCES WILL
PEAK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FORECASTS)...WITH ISOLATED CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS MAY BE SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES. WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY OUT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA...HI VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF THE REGION THURSDAY TO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  77  95  78  93  /  20  20  30  40  40
VICTORIA          95  76  95  76  95  /  40  20  30  30  40
LAREDO           103  79 102  79 102  /  10  10  20  10  20
ALICE             98  75  99  76  97  /  20  10  30  30  30
ROCKPORT          89  80  89  80  93  /  30  20  40  40  40
COTULLA          102  77 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        97  78  97  78  95  /  20  20  30  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  89  80  93  /  30  20  40  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 261143 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM ALI-VCT.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FROM CRP-VCT THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...REACHING AS FAR WEST TO NEAR ALI THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TO WANE FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REACHING 10-15KT IN THE
AFTERNOON (EARLY EVENING FOR LRD)...THEN DECOUPLING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER...PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 2.2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHILE ACROSS THE WEST PWATS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8
INCHES. WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...WILL EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FURTHER WEST THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND REDEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE EASTERN SITES TODAY...WITH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FURTHER WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DESPITE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING...SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. POP CHANCES WILL
PEAK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FORECASTS)...WITH ISOLATED CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS MAY BE SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES. WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY OUT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA...HI VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF THE REGION THURSDAY TO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  77  95  78  93  /  30  20  30  40  40
VICTORIA          95  76  95  76  95  /  40  20  30  30  40
LAREDO           103  79 102  79 102  /  10  10  20  10  20
ALICE             98  75  99  76  97  /  20  10  30  30  30
ROCKPORT          89  80  89  80  93  /  40  20  40  40  40
COTULLA          102  77 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        97  78  97  78  95  /  20  20  30  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  89  80  93  /  30  20  40  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 260946
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
446 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER...PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 2.2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHILE ACROSS THE WEST PWATS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8
INCHES. WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...WILL EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FURTHER WEST THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND REDEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE EASTERN SITES TODAY...WITH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FURTHER WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DESPITE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING...SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. POP CHANCES WILL
PEAK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FORECASTS)...WITH ISOLATED CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS MAY BE SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES. WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY OUT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA...HI VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF THE REGION THURSDAY TO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  77  95  78  93  /  30  20  30  40  40
VICTORIA          95  76  95  76  95  /  40  20  30  30  40
LAREDO           103  79 102  79 102  /  10  10  20  10  20
ALICE             98  75  99  76  97  /  20  10  30  30  30
ROCKPORT          89  80  89  80  93  /  40  20  40  40  40
COTULLA          102  77 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        97  78  97  78  95  /  20  20  30  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  89  80  93  /  30  20  40  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 260946
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
446 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER...PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 2.2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHILE ACROSS THE WEST PWATS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8
INCHES. WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...WILL EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FURTHER WEST THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND REDEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE EASTERN SITES TODAY...WITH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FURTHER WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DESPITE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING...SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. POP CHANCES WILL
PEAK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FORECASTS)...WITH ISOLATED CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS MAY BE SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES. WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY OUT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA...HI VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF THE REGION THURSDAY TO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  77  95  78  93  /  30  20  30  40  40
VICTORIA          95  76  95  76  95  /  40  20  30  30  40
LAREDO           103  79 102  79 102  /  10  10  20  10  20
ALICE             98  75  99  76  97  /  20  10  30  30  30
ROCKPORT          89  80  89  80  93  /  40  20  40  40  40
COTULLA          102  77 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        97  78  97  78  95  /  20  20  30  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  89  80  93  /  30  20  40  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 260551 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1251 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR FOR ALL THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY FROM CRP-ALI-VCT...NEAR DAYBREAK AS PROFILES
LOOK CONDUCIVE TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUD AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR VCT AND ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. DID EXTEND AT LEAST VCSH TO ALI...WITH VCSH FOR CRP-
VCT LATE IN THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH A 10-15KT EASTERLY INFLUENCE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  97  78  93  78  /  20  30  40  40  30
VICTORIA          77  97  76  94  77  /  20  20  30  40  30
LAREDO            79 103  79 104  80  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76 100  76  97  77  /  10  20  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  93  80  93  80  /  20  40  40  40  40
COTULLA           77 102  76 102  76  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  98  78  95  77  /  20  30  30  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  93  80  93  80  /  20  40  40  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 260551 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1251 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR FOR ALL THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY FROM CRP-ALI-VCT...NEAR DAYBREAK AS PROFILES
LOOK CONDUCIVE TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUD AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR VCT AND ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. DID EXTEND AT LEAST VCSH TO ALI...WITH VCSH FOR CRP-
VCT LATE IN THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH A 10-15KT EASTERLY INFLUENCE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  97  78  93  78  /  20  30  40  40  30
VICTORIA          77  97  76  94  77  /  20  20  30  40  30
LAREDO            79 103  79 104  80  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76 100  76  97  77  /  10  20  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  93  80  93  80  /  20  40  40  40  40
COTULLA           77 102  76 102  76  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  98  78  95  77  /  20  30  30  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  93  80  93  80  /  20  40  40  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 260244 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
944 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST.
HIGHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGHER MOISTURE
WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS AND MID-COAST REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. BUMPED THE POPS UP SLIGHTLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND MID-COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW
BEFORE DAYBREAK FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM OVER THE INLAND PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...INCREASING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BRING IN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...HOWEVER FOR TONIGHT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH JUST TEMPO GROUPS FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE MORNING FOR CIGS/VIS REDUCTIONS. TOMORROW COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR EASTERN TAF SITES. ALI ON THE EDGE OF
CONVECTION POTENTIAL...BUT MAYBE SOMETHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. THAT LOW CHANCE IS NOT INCLUDED IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EAST COULD TEMPORARILY GO MVFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MSTR CONVERGENCE MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
MOVE WWD DRG THE PERIOD. THE NAM INCREASES PWAT VALUES
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER THE MSA OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA
TUESDAY AFTN. TUESDAY NIGHT...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION WL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE MSA. ANTICIPATE COOLER MAX TEMPS OVER
ESPECIALLY THE NERN CWA TUESDAY AFTN. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105F.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A HANDFUL
OF THEM (PARTICULARLY THE UKMET NAM AND SREF) HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN ACKNOWLEGED BY NHC
AS A POSSIBILITY FOR DAY FOUR. EITHER WAY...PWATS ARE LIKELY TO
SURGE TO 2.2 - 2.3 RANGE ALONGSIDE THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS H500
VORT MAX OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 40%. DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE
WRAPPING AROUND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ON WED INTO THURS...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE INLAND COUNTIES RELATIVELY DRY. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...THE DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN FRIDAY AND THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LAND AREAS
SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SH/TS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES STEADILY DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CWA AGAIN. WIND FORECAST OVER THE
MARINE AREAS IS FAIRLY TRICKY WHILE THE LOW IS IN THE AREA...AS
DIRECTIONS VARY QUITE A BIT DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST CENTER...SO
HAVE JUST USED MODEL BLENDS FOR THE TIME BEING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY I DROPPED TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO
REFLECT INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  95  77  97  78  /  10  20  20  30  40
VICTORIA          75  95  77  97  76  /  10  30  20  20  30
LAREDO            77 103  79 103  79  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             75  98  76 100  76  /  10  20  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          78  89  80  93  80  /  10  30  20  40  40
COTULLA           75 102  77 102  76  /  10  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  77  98  78  /  10  20  20  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  89  81  93  80  /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 252337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BRING IN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...HOWEVER FOR TONIGHT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH JUST TEMPO GROUPS FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE MORNING FOR CIGS/VIS REDUCTIONS. TOMORROW COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR EASTERN TAF SITES. ALI ON THE EDGE OF
CONVECTION POTENTIAL...BUT MAYBE SOMETHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. THAT LOW CHANCE IS NOT INCLUDED IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EAST COULD TEMPORARILY GO MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MSTR CONVERGENCE MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
MOVE WWD DRG THE PERIOD. THE NAM INCREASES PWAT VALUES
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER THE MSA OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA
TUESDAY AFTN. TUESDAY NIGHT...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION WL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE MSA. ANTICIPATE COOLER MAX TEMPS OVER
ESPECIALLY THE NERN CWA TUESDAY AFTN. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105F.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A HANDFUL
OF THEM (PARTICULARLY THE UKMET NAM AND SREF) HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN ACKNOWLEGED BY NHC
AS A POSSIBILITY FOR DAY FOUR. EITHER WAY...PWATS ARE LIKELY TO
SURGE TO 2.2 - 2.3 RANGE ALONGSIDE THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS H500
VORT MAX OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 40%. DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE
WRAPPING AROUND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ON WED INTO THURS...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE INLAND COUNTIES RELATIVELY DRY. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...THE DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN FRIDAY AND THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LAND AREAS
SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SH/TS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES STEADILY DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CWA AGAIN. WIND FORECAST OVER THE
MARINE AREAS IS FAIRLY TRICKY WHILE THE LOW IS IN THE AREA...AS
DIRECTIONS VARY QUITE A BIT DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST CENTER...SO
HAVE JUST USED MODEL BLENDS FOR THE TIME BEING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY I DROPPED TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO
REFLECT INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  95  77  97  78  /  10  20  20  30  40
VICTORIA          76  95  77  97  76  /  10  30  20  20  30
LAREDO            77 103  79 103  79  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             75  98  76 100  76  /  10  20  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          78  89  80  93  80  /  10  20  20  40  40
COTULLA           75 102  77 102  76  /  10  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  77  98  78  /  10  20  20  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  89  81  93  80  /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 252337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BRING IN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...HOWEVER FOR TONIGHT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH JUST TEMPO GROUPS FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE MORNING FOR CIGS/VIS REDUCTIONS. TOMORROW COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR EASTERN TAF SITES. ALI ON THE EDGE OF
CONVECTION POTENTIAL...BUT MAYBE SOMETHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. THAT LOW CHANCE IS NOT INCLUDED IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EAST COULD TEMPORARILY GO MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MSTR CONVERGENCE MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
MOVE WWD DRG THE PERIOD. THE NAM INCREASES PWAT VALUES
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER THE MSA OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA
TUESDAY AFTN. TUESDAY NIGHT...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION WL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE MSA. ANTICIPATE COOLER MAX TEMPS OVER
ESPECIALLY THE NERN CWA TUESDAY AFTN. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105F.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A HANDFUL
OF THEM (PARTICULARLY THE UKMET NAM AND SREF) HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN ACKNOWLEGED BY NHC
AS A POSSIBILITY FOR DAY FOUR. EITHER WAY...PWATS ARE LIKELY TO
SURGE TO 2.2 - 2.3 RANGE ALONGSIDE THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS H500
VORT MAX OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 40%. DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE
WRAPPING AROUND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ON WED INTO THURS...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE INLAND COUNTIES RELATIVELY DRY. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...THE DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN FRIDAY AND THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LAND AREAS
SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SH/TS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES STEADILY DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CWA AGAIN. WIND FORECAST OVER THE
MARINE AREAS IS FAIRLY TRICKY WHILE THE LOW IS IN THE AREA...AS
DIRECTIONS VARY QUITE A BIT DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST CENTER...SO
HAVE JUST USED MODEL BLENDS FOR THE TIME BEING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY I DROPPED TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO
REFLECT INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  95  77  97  78  /  10  20  20  30  40
VICTORIA          76  95  77  97  76  /  10  30  20  20  30
LAREDO            77 103  79 103  79  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             75  98  76 100  76  /  10  20  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          78  89  80  93  80  /  10  20  20  40  40
COTULLA           75 102  77 102  76  /  10  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  77  98  78  /  10  20  20  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  89  81  93  80  /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 252039
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
339 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MSTR CONVERGENCE MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
MOVE WWD DRG THE PERIOD. THE NAM INCREASES PWAT VALUES
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER THE MSA OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA
TUESDAY AFTN. TUESDAY NIGHT...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION WL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE MSA. ANTICIPATE COOLER MAX TEMPS OVER
ESPECIALLY THE NERN CWA TUESDAY AFTN. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105F.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A HANDFUL
OF THEM (PARTICULARLY THE UKMET NAM AND SREF) HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN ACKNOWLEGED BY NHC
AS A POSSIBILITY FOR DAY FOUR. EITHER WAY...PWATS ARE LIKELY TO
SURGE TO 2.2 - 2.3 RANGE ALONGSIDE THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS H500
VORT MAX OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 40%. DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE
WRAPPING AROUND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ON WED INTO THURS...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE INLAND COUNTIES RELATIVELY DRY. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...THE DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN FRIDAY AND THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LAND AREAS
SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SH/TS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES STEADILY DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CWA AGAIN. WIND FORECAST OVER THE
MARINE AREAS IS FAIRLY TRICKY WHILE THE LOW IS IN THE AREA...AS
DIRECTIONS VARY QUITE A BIT DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST CENTER...SO
HAVE JUST USED MODEL BLENDS FOR THE TIME BEING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY I DROPPED TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO
REFLECT INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  95  77  97  78  /  10  20  20  30  40
VICTORIA          76  95  77  97  76  /  10  30  20  20  30
LAREDO            77 103  79 103  79  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             75  98  76 100  76  /  10  20  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          78  89  80  93  80  /  10  20  20  40  40
COTULLA           75 102  77 102  76  /  10  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  77  98  78  /  10  20  20  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  89  81  93  80  /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 252039
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
339 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MSTR CONVERGENCE MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
MOVE WWD DRG THE PERIOD. THE NAM INCREASES PWAT VALUES
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER THE MSA OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA
TUESDAY AFTN. TUESDAY NIGHT...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION WL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE MSA. ANTICIPATE COOLER MAX TEMPS OVER
ESPECIALLY THE NERN CWA TUESDAY AFTN. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105F.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A HANDFUL
OF THEM (PARTICULARLY THE UKMET NAM AND SREF) HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN ACKNOWLEGED BY NHC
AS A POSSIBILITY FOR DAY FOUR. EITHER WAY...PWATS ARE LIKELY TO
SURGE TO 2.2 - 2.3 RANGE ALONGSIDE THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS H500
VORT MAX OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 40%. DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE
WRAPPING AROUND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ON WED INTO THURS...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE INLAND COUNTIES RELATIVELY DRY. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...THE DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN FRIDAY AND THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LAND AREAS
SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SH/TS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES STEADILY DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CWA AGAIN. WIND FORECAST OVER THE
MARINE AREAS IS FAIRLY TRICKY WHILE THE LOW IS IN THE AREA...AS
DIRECTIONS VARY QUITE A BIT DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST CENTER...SO
HAVE JUST USED MODEL BLENDS FOR THE TIME BEING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY I DROPPED TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO
REFLECT INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  95  77  97  78  /  10  20  20  30  40
VICTORIA          76  95  77  97  76  /  10  30  20  20  30
LAREDO            77 103  79 103  79  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             75  98  76 100  76  /  10  20  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          78  89  80  93  80  /  10  20  20  40  40
COTULLA           75 102  77 102  76  /  10  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  77  98  78  /  10  20  20  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  89  81  93  80  /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 251813
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
113 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE
FOLLOWED BY A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
CEILINGS AND FOG DRG THE 06-13Z TUESDAY PERIOD. A COMBINATION OF
AMBIENT MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM ISOLD/SCT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DRG THE 15-18Z TUESDAY PERIOD
GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281. MODERATE ONSHORE OVER SEVERAL
LOCATIONS DRG THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY LGT WIND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING FROM ALI-VCT THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BRIEF IFR REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY OR AROUND 14Z WITH VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-15KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL SITES...REACHING LRD SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. ANOTHER NIGHT OF CALMING WINDS MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE ONCE MORE FROM ALI-VCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
RETURN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTS SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PWATS ARE PROG TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 INCHES TODAY TO 1.8-2.0
INCHES TUESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...DID KEEP IN MENTION OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BUT
MAINTAINED LESS THAN 20 POPS AS WARM H85-H7 TEMPS SHOULD HINDER
MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IS CLOSER AND
TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE MIDLEVELS...CONTINUED A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE SCENARIO WITH AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE AS WELL. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...KEPT PERSISTENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS LIKELY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SEASONABLY POTENT
INVERTED TROUGH IS PROG TO BECOME MORE DEFINED AND SHIFT WEST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH TROUGH AXIS ENTERING MARINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY BY WED. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND...WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS DUE TO FIRST TRUE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUMMER
FROM SFC TO H5...A DAILY SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR WED THROUGH FRI
AND WOULD HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS
HIGHER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH BOTH CONTINUE TO LACK STRONG RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. 00Z GUIDANCE SUITES ARE CURRENTLY DIFFERING ON HOW FAST
TO SHIFT TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS INLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH 00Z GFS ABOUT
18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. GFS IS ALSO WARMER WITH THERMAL
PROFILE FROM H85 TO H7 AND THUS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
CONVECTION THAN ECMWF. HAVE DISCOUNTED 00Z CMC ATTM AS IT WANTS TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST AND SLOWLY PUSH IT INLAND
/ONLY GUIDANCE SUITE DOING SO AT THIS TIME/. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FURTHER BY THE WEEKEND AS SHEAR AXIS LOSES ITS IDENTITY
AND A STRONG S/W TROUGH IS PROG TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH
GUIDANCE SUITES AGAIN DIFFERING WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING /AS WELL AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNTIL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES SOME. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY LATE WEEK AS DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE MOST FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  96  76  97  78  /  10  20  10  20  20
VICTORIA          75  99  76  99  76  /  10  30  10  30  10
LAREDO            79 105  80 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74 101  75 100  76  /  10  20  10  30  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  79  93  80  /  10  20  20  20  20
COTULLA           75 103  76 102  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  99  76  98  78  /  10  20  10  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  90  80  93  80  /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 251813
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
113 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE
FOLLOWED BY A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
CEILINGS AND FOG DRG THE 06-13Z TUESDAY PERIOD. A COMBINATION OF
AMBIENT MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM ISOLD/SCT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DRG THE 15-18Z TUESDAY PERIOD
GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281. MODERATE ONSHORE OVER SEVERAL
LOCATIONS DRG THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY LGT WIND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING FROM ALI-VCT THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BRIEF IFR REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY OR AROUND 14Z WITH VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-15KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL SITES...REACHING LRD SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. ANOTHER NIGHT OF CALMING WINDS MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE ONCE MORE FROM ALI-VCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
RETURN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTS SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PWATS ARE PROG TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 INCHES TODAY TO 1.8-2.0
INCHES TUESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...DID KEEP IN MENTION OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BUT
MAINTAINED LESS THAN 20 POPS AS WARM H85-H7 TEMPS SHOULD HINDER
MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IS CLOSER AND
TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE MIDLEVELS...CONTINUED A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE SCENARIO WITH AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE AS WELL. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...KEPT PERSISTENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS LIKELY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SEASONABLY POTENT
INVERTED TROUGH IS PROG TO BECOME MORE DEFINED AND SHIFT WEST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH TROUGH AXIS ENTERING MARINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY BY WED. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND...WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS DUE TO FIRST TRUE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUMMER
FROM SFC TO H5...A DAILY SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR WED THROUGH FRI
AND WOULD HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS
HIGHER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH BOTH CONTINUE TO LACK STRONG RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. 00Z GUIDANCE SUITES ARE CURRENTLY DIFFERING ON HOW FAST
TO SHIFT TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS INLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH 00Z GFS ABOUT
18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. GFS IS ALSO WARMER WITH THERMAL
PROFILE FROM H85 TO H7 AND THUS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
CONVECTION THAN ECMWF. HAVE DISCOUNTED 00Z CMC ATTM AS IT WANTS TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST AND SLOWLY PUSH IT INLAND
/ONLY GUIDANCE SUITE DOING SO AT THIS TIME/. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FURTHER BY THE WEEKEND AS SHEAR AXIS LOSES ITS IDENTITY
AND A STRONG S/W TROUGH IS PROG TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH
GUIDANCE SUITES AGAIN DIFFERING WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING /AS WELL AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNTIL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES SOME. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY LATE WEEK AS DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE MOST FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  96  76  97  78  /  10  20  10  20  20
VICTORIA          75  99  76  99  76  /  10  30  10  30  10
LAREDO            79 105  80 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74 101  75 100  76  /  10  20  10  30  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  79  93  80  /  10  20  20  20  20
COTULLA           75 103  76 102  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  99  76  98  78  /  10  20  10  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  90  80  93  80  /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 251138 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING FROM ALI-VCT THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BRIEF IFR REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY OR AROUND 14Z WITH VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-15KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL SITES...REACHING LRD SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. ANOTHER NIGHT OF CALMING WINDS MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE ONCE MORE FROM ALI-VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
RETURN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTS SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PWATS ARE PROG TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 INCHES TODAY TO 1.8-2.0
INCHES TUESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...DID KEEP IN MENTION OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BUT
MAINTAINED LESS THAN 20 POPS AS WARM H85-H7 TEMPS SHOULD HINDER
MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IS CLOSER AND
TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE MIDLEVELS...CONTINUED A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE SCENARIO WITH AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE AS WELL. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...KEPT PERSISTENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS LIKELY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SEASONABLY POTENT
INVERTED TROUGH IS PROG TO BECOME MORE DEFINED AND SHIFT WEST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH TROUGH AXIS ENTERING MARINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY BY WED. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND...WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS DUE TO FIRST TRUE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUMMER
FROM SFC TO H5...A DAILY SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR WED THROUGH FRI
AND WOULD HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS
HIGHER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH BOTH CONTINUE TO LACK STRONG RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. 00Z GUIDANCE SUITES ARE CURRENTLY DIFFERING ON HOW FAST
TO SHIFT TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS INLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH 00Z GFS ABOUT
18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. GFS IS ALSO WARMER WITH THERMAL
PROFILE FROM H85 TO H7 AND THUS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
CONVECTION THAN ECMWF. HAVE DISCOUNTED 00Z CMC ATTM AS IT WANTS TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST AND SLOWLY PUSH IT INLAND
/ONLY GUIDANCE SUITE DOING SO AT THIS TIME/. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FURTHER BY THE WEEKEND AS SHEAR AXIS LOSES ITS IDENTITY
AND A STRONG S/W TROUGH IS PROG TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH
GUIDANCE SUITES AGAIN DIFFERING WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING /AS WELL AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNTIL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES SOME. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY LATE WEEK AS DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE MOST FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  76  97  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA         100  75  99  76  99  /  10  10  30  10  30
LAREDO           104  79 105  80 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  74 101  75 100  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          93  80  91  79  93  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA          103  75 103  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  76  99  76  98  /  10  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       94  79  90  80  93  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 251138 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING FROM ALI-VCT THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BRIEF IFR REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY OR AROUND 14Z WITH VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-15KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL SITES...REACHING LRD SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. ANOTHER NIGHT OF CALMING WINDS MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE ONCE MORE FROM ALI-VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
RETURN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTS SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PWATS ARE PROG TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 INCHES TODAY TO 1.8-2.0
INCHES TUESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...DID KEEP IN MENTION OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BUT
MAINTAINED LESS THAN 20 POPS AS WARM H85-H7 TEMPS SHOULD HINDER
MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IS CLOSER AND
TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE MIDLEVELS...CONTINUED A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE SCENARIO WITH AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE AS WELL. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...KEPT PERSISTENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS LIKELY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SEASONABLY POTENT
INVERTED TROUGH IS PROG TO BECOME MORE DEFINED AND SHIFT WEST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH TROUGH AXIS ENTERING MARINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY BY WED. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND...WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS DUE TO FIRST TRUE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUMMER
FROM SFC TO H5...A DAILY SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR WED THROUGH FRI
AND WOULD HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS
HIGHER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH BOTH CONTINUE TO LACK STRONG RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. 00Z GUIDANCE SUITES ARE CURRENTLY DIFFERING ON HOW FAST
TO SHIFT TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS INLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH 00Z GFS ABOUT
18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. GFS IS ALSO WARMER WITH THERMAL
PROFILE FROM H85 TO H7 AND THUS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
CONVECTION THAN ECMWF. HAVE DISCOUNTED 00Z CMC ATTM AS IT WANTS TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST AND SLOWLY PUSH IT INLAND
/ONLY GUIDANCE SUITE DOING SO AT THIS TIME/. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FURTHER BY THE WEEKEND AS SHEAR AXIS LOSES ITS IDENTITY
AND A STRONG S/W TROUGH IS PROG TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH
GUIDANCE SUITES AGAIN DIFFERING WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING /AS WELL AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNTIL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES SOME. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY LATE WEEK AS DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE MOST FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  76  97  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA         100  75  99  76  99  /  10  10  30  10  30
LAREDO           104  79 105  80 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  74 101  75 100  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          93  80  91  79  93  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA          103  75 103  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  76  99  76  98  /  10  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       94  79  90  80  93  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 250924
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
424 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
RETURN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTS SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PWATS ARE PROG TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 INCHES TODAY TO 1.8-2.0
INCHES TUESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...DID KEEP IN MENTION OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BUT
MAINTAINED LESS THAN 20 POPS AS WARM H85-H7 TEMPS SHOULD HINDER
MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IS CLOSER AND
TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE MIDLEVELS...CONTINUED A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE SCENARIO WITH AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE AS WELL. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...KEPT PERSISTENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS LIKELY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SEASONABLY POTENT
INVERTED TROUGH IS PROG TO BECOME MORE DEFINED AND SHIFT WEST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH TROUGH AXIS ENTERING MARINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY BY WED. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND...WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS DUE TO FIRST TRUE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUMMER
FROM SFC TO H5...A DAILY SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR WED THROUGH FRI
AND WOULD HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS
HIGHER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH BOTH CONTINUE TO LACK STRONG RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. 00Z GUIDANCE SUITES ARE CURRENTLY DIFFERING ON HOW FAST
TO SHIFT TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS INLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH 00Z GFS ABOUT
18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. GFS IS ALSO WARMER WITH THERMAL
PROFILE FROM H85 TO H7 AND THUS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
CONVECTION THAN ECMWF. HAVE DISCOUNTED 00Z CMC ATTM AS IT WANTS TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST AND SLOWLY PUSH IT INLAND
/ONLY GUIDANCE SUITE DOING SO AT THIS TIME/. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FURTHER BY THE WEEKEND AS SHEAR AXIS LOSES ITS IDENTITY
AND A STRONG S/W TROUGH IS PROG TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH
GUIDANCE SUITES AGAIN DIFFERING WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING /AS WELL AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNTIL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES SOME. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY LATE WEEK AS DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE MOST FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  76  97  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA         100  75  99  76  99  /  10  10  30  10  30
LAREDO           104  79 105  80 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  74 101  75 100  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          93  80  91  79  93  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA          103  75 103  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  76  99  76  98  /  10  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       94  79  90  80  93  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 250924
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
424 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
RETURN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTS SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PWATS ARE PROG TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 INCHES TODAY TO 1.8-2.0
INCHES TUESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...DID KEEP IN MENTION OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BUT
MAINTAINED LESS THAN 20 POPS AS WARM H85-H7 TEMPS SHOULD HINDER
MUCH DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IS CLOSER AND
TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE MIDLEVELS...CONTINUED A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE SCENARIO WITH AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE AS WELL. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...KEPT PERSISTENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS LIKELY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE
AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SEASONABLY POTENT
INVERTED TROUGH IS PROG TO BECOME MORE DEFINED AND SHIFT WEST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH TROUGH AXIS ENTERING MARINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY BY WED. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND...WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS DUE TO FIRST TRUE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUMMER
FROM SFC TO H5...A DAILY SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR WED THROUGH FRI
AND WOULD HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS
HIGHER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH BOTH CONTINUE TO LACK STRONG RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. 00Z GUIDANCE SUITES ARE CURRENTLY DIFFERING ON HOW FAST
TO SHIFT TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS INLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH 00Z GFS ABOUT
18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. GFS IS ALSO WARMER WITH THERMAL
PROFILE FROM H85 TO H7 AND THUS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
CONVECTION THAN ECMWF. HAVE DISCOUNTED 00Z CMC ATTM AS IT WANTS TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST AND SLOWLY PUSH IT INLAND
/ONLY GUIDANCE SUITE DOING SO AT THIS TIME/. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FURTHER BY THE WEEKEND AS SHEAR AXIS LOSES ITS IDENTITY
AND A STRONG S/W TROUGH IS PROG TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH
GUIDANCE SUITES AGAIN DIFFERING WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING /AS WELL AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNTIL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES SOME. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY LATE WEEK AS DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE MOST FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  76  97  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA         100  75  99  76  99  /  10  10  30  10  30
LAREDO           104  79 105  80 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  74 101  75 100  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          93  80  91  79  93  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA          103  75 103  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  76  99  76  98  /  10  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       94  79  90  80  93  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 250608 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
108 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
ALI-VCT BETWEEN 10Z-14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. MOISTURE INCREASES TOMORROW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
HOWEVER CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S-SE 10-15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  96  77  97  77  /  10  20  20  30  20
VICTORIA          75  99  76  97  76  /  10  30  10  30  30
LAREDO            78 105  80 104  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74 100  75  99  76  /  10  10  10  30  10
ROCKPORT          78  91  80  94  80  /  10  20  20  30  30
COTULLA           75 103  76 103  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  99  77  98  76  /  10  20  10  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  90  80  94  80  /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 250608 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
108 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
ALI-VCT BETWEEN 10Z-14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. MOISTURE INCREASES TOMORROW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
HOWEVER CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S-SE 10-15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  96  77  97  77  /  10  20  20  30  20
VICTORIA          75  99  76  97  76  /  10  30  10  30  30
LAREDO            78 105  80 104  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74 100  75  99  76  /  10  10  10  30  10
ROCKPORT          78  91  80  94  80  /  10  20  20  30  30
COTULLA           75 103  76 103  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  99  77  98  76  /  10  20  10  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  90  80  94  80  /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






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