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000
FXUS64 KCRP 030821
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
321 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...GOES IR SOUNDER DATA AND
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. SOME
SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF BAFFIN BAY.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY CAPPED EXCEPT OVER THE GULFMEX AND
NEAR THE COAST. STILL...ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE CAP IS LACKING. MAY ONLY SEE
SHOWERS (IF ANY) FARTHER INLAND...BUT DECIDED TO STAY WITH THUNDER.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET AS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAT-
DRIVEN. DRIER AIR IN ON TUESDAY BUT STILL MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND AGAIN FOR AT LEAST A SHOWER/STORM OR TWO BUT MAY BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY INLAND...WITH MAYBE SOMETHING OFFSHORE. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A NON-RAIN FORECAST BUT THE AFTERNOON SHIFT OR NEW MIDNIGHT
SHIFT ON TUESDAY MAY NEED TO PUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OVER
THE GULFMEX. HEAT INDICES TODAY 105 TO 109 INCLUSIVE MOST SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH POSSIBLY 110F OR MORE IN A LOCATION OR TWO (HANDLE WITH
SPS). SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS. WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE/NORTHERN WATERS. LESS IF ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS UP A BIT MORE BUT BELOW SCA.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AS UPPER LVL RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER
THE REGION. WARM MID LVL TEMPERATURES AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN WILL
HELP TO KEEP MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH
ONLY 10 POPS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH SCEC WINDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING
THE EVENINGS/OVERNIGHT MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING 105 TO 109 EACH DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  78  96  78  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          98  77  98  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           104  80 103  78 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  77  99  76 100  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          95  81  94  81  95  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 101  77 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  77  97  78  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  91  81  93  /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 030821
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
321 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...GOES IR SOUNDER DATA AND
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. SOME
SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF BAFFIN BAY.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY CAPPED EXCEPT OVER THE GULFMEX AND
NEAR THE COAST. STILL...ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE CAP IS LACKING. MAY ONLY SEE
SHOWERS (IF ANY) FARTHER INLAND...BUT DECIDED TO STAY WITH THUNDER.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET AS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAT-
DRIVEN. DRIER AIR IN ON TUESDAY BUT STILL MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND AGAIN FOR AT LEAST A SHOWER/STORM OR TWO BUT MAY BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY INLAND...WITH MAYBE SOMETHING OFFSHORE. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A NON-RAIN FORECAST BUT THE AFTERNOON SHIFT OR NEW MIDNIGHT
SHIFT ON TUESDAY MAY NEED TO PUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OVER
THE GULFMEX. HEAT INDICES TODAY 105 TO 109 INCLUSIVE MOST SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH POSSIBLY 110F OR MORE IN A LOCATION OR TWO (HANDLE WITH
SPS). SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS. WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE/NORTHERN WATERS. LESS IF ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS UP A BIT MORE BUT BELOW SCA.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AS UPPER LVL RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER
THE REGION. WARM MID LVL TEMPERATURES AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN WILL
HELP TO KEEP MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH
ONLY 10 POPS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH SCEC WINDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING
THE EVENINGS/OVERNIGHT MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING 105 TO 109 EACH DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  78  96  78  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          98  77  98  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           104  80 103  78 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  77  99  76 100  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          95  81  94  81  95  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 101  77 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  77  97  78  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  91  81  93  /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 030524 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1224 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE ANY CONVECTION IN THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND POSSIBLE FOG AT KALI AND KVCT THIS
MORNING. FIRST THE CONVECTION. GOES SOUNDER AND MODEL DATA SHOW A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING PROGRESSES.
THINK THERE WILL BE CONVECTION...BUT CAP WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. THUS...WILL PUT IN PROB30 CONVECTION AT
KCRP BUT ONLY GO FOR VCTS AT KALI (WITH CONVECTION FROM 19Z TO
23Z AT KCRP AND VCTS AT KALI FROM 21Z TO 02Z. FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT LATE IN THE FORECAST TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME (PROBABLY TRUE FOR THE 12Z TAFS TOO BUT WILL SEE).
NOW THE FOG...WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KVCT AND MVFR AT
KALI...BASED ON WEAK WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...VFR
IN THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO START THEN
BECOMING SOUTEAST IN THE AFTERNOON (MAINLY SOUTH AT KVCT) AND
GENERALLY JUST A BIT GUSTY AND KCRP AND KLRD AT THEIR USUALY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAMES...RESPECITVELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCHES BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AS 00Z
KBRO RAOB HAD A PWAT OF 2.20 INCHES. THIS SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST. AS THE AIRMASS
OVER THE GULF WATERS BECOMES UNSTABLE...ISOLATED TO EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
BETTER CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WILL COME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR MONDAY MORNING IF
COASTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
THAN FORECAST. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT. SOME FOG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE VICTORIA REGION...WITH
LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  96  78  96  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  98  75  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 102  79 103  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             77  98  76 100  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  95  81  95  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 101  77 103  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        78  97  78  97  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  94  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 030524 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1224 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE ANY CONVECTION IN THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND POSSIBLE FOG AT KALI AND KVCT THIS
MORNING. FIRST THE CONVECTION. GOES SOUNDER AND MODEL DATA SHOW A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING PROGRESSES.
THINK THERE WILL BE CONVECTION...BUT CAP WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. THUS...WILL PUT IN PROB30 CONVECTION AT
KCRP BUT ONLY GO FOR VCTS AT KALI (WITH CONVECTION FROM 19Z TO
23Z AT KCRP AND VCTS AT KALI FROM 21Z TO 02Z. FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT LATE IN THE FORECAST TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME (PROBABLY TRUE FOR THE 12Z TAFS TOO BUT WILL SEE).
NOW THE FOG...WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KVCT AND MVFR AT
KALI...BASED ON WEAK WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...VFR
IN THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO START THEN
BECOMING SOUTEAST IN THE AFTERNOON (MAINLY SOUTH AT KVCT) AND
GENERALLY JUST A BIT GUSTY AND KCRP AND KLRD AT THEIR USUALY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAMES...RESPECITVELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCHES BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AS 00Z
KBRO RAOB HAD A PWAT OF 2.20 INCHES. THIS SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST. AS THE AIRMASS
OVER THE GULF WATERS BECOMES UNSTABLE...ISOLATED TO EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
BETTER CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WILL COME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR MONDAY MORNING IF
COASTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
THAN FORECAST. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT. SOME FOG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE VICTORIA REGION...WITH
LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  96  78  96  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  98  75  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 102  79 103  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             77  98  76 100  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  95  81  95  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 101  77 103  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        78  97  78  97  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  94  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 030524 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1224 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE ANY CONVECTION IN THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND POSSIBLE FOG AT KALI AND KVCT THIS
MORNING. FIRST THE CONVECTION. GOES SOUNDER AND MODEL DATA SHOW A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING PROGRESSES.
THINK THERE WILL BE CONVECTION...BUT CAP WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. THUS...WILL PUT IN PROB30 CONVECTION AT
KCRP BUT ONLY GO FOR VCTS AT KALI (WITH CONVECTION FROM 19Z TO
23Z AT KCRP AND VCTS AT KALI FROM 21Z TO 02Z. FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT LATE IN THE FORECAST TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME (PROBABLY TRUE FOR THE 12Z TAFS TOO BUT WILL SEE).
NOW THE FOG...WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KVCT AND MVFR AT
KALI...BASED ON WEAK WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...VFR
IN THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO START THEN
BECOMING SOUTEAST IN THE AFTERNOON (MAINLY SOUTH AT KVCT) AND
GENERALLY JUST A BIT GUSTY AND KCRP AND KLRD AT THEIR USUALY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAMES...RESPECITVELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCHES BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AS 00Z
KBRO RAOB HAD A PWAT OF 2.20 INCHES. THIS SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST. AS THE AIRMASS
OVER THE GULF WATERS BECOMES UNSTABLE...ISOLATED TO EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
BETTER CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WILL COME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR MONDAY MORNING IF
COASTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
THAN FORECAST. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT. SOME FOG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE VICTORIA REGION...WITH
LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  96  78  96  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  98  75  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 102  79 103  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             77  98  76 100  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  95  81  95  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 101  77 103  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        78  97  78  97  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  94  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 030524 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1224 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE ANY CONVECTION IN THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND POSSIBLE FOG AT KALI AND KVCT THIS
MORNING. FIRST THE CONVECTION. GOES SOUNDER AND MODEL DATA SHOW A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING PROGRESSES.
THINK THERE WILL BE CONVECTION...BUT CAP WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. THUS...WILL PUT IN PROB30 CONVECTION AT
KCRP BUT ONLY GO FOR VCTS AT KALI (WITH CONVECTION FROM 19Z TO
23Z AT KCRP AND VCTS AT KALI FROM 21Z TO 02Z. FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT LATE IN THE FORECAST TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME (PROBABLY TRUE FOR THE 12Z TAFS TOO BUT WILL SEE).
NOW THE FOG...WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KVCT AND MVFR AT
KALI...BASED ON WEAK WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...VFR
IN THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO START THEN
BECOMING SOUTEAST IN THE AFTERNOON (MAINLY SOUTH AT KVCT) AND
GENERALLY JUST A BIT GUSTY AND KCRP AND KLRD AT THEIR USUALY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAMES...RESPECITVELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCHES BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AS 00Z
KBRO RAOB HAD A PWAT OF 2.20 INCHES. THIS SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST. AS THE AIRMASS
OVER THE GULF WATERS BECOMES UNSTABLE...ISOLATED TO EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
BETTER CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WILL COME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR MONDAY MORNING IF
COASTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
THAN FORECAST. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT. SOME FOG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE VICTORIA REGION...WITH
LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  96  78  96  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  98  75  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 102  79 103  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             77  98  76 100  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  95  81  95  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 101  77 103  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        78  97  78  97  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  94  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 030203 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
903 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCHES BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AS 00Z
KBRO RAOB HAD A PWAT OF 2.20 INCHES. THIS SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST. AS THE AIRMASS
OVER THE GULF WATERS BECOMES UNSTABLE...ISOLATED TO EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
BETTER CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WILL COME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR MONDAY MORNING IF
COASTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
THAN FORECAST. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT. SOME FOG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE VICTORIA REGION...WITH
LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  78  96  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          72  98  77  98  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            76 103  78 102  79  /   0  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  77  98  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  96  81  95  81  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 102  77 101  77  /   0  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  78  97  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  93  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 030203 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
903 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCHES BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AS 00Z
KBRO RAOB HAD A PWAT OF 2.20 INCHES. THIS SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST. AS THE AIRMASS
OVER THE GULF WATERS BECOMES UNSTABLE...ISOLATED TO EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
BETTER CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WILL COME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR MONDAY MORNING IF
COASTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
THAN FORECAST. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT. SOME FOG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE VICTORIA REGION...WITH
LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  78  96  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          72  98  77  98  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            76 103  78 102  79  /   0  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  77  98  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  96  81  95  81  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 102  77 101  77  /   0  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  78  97  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  93  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79




000
FXUS64 KCRP 030203 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
903 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCHES BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AS 00Z
KBRO RAOB HAD A PWAT OF 2.20 INCHES. THIS SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PROG TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST. AS THE AIRMASS
OVER THE GULF WATERS BECOMES UNSTABLE...ISOLATED TO EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
BETTER CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WILL COME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR MONDAY MORNING IF
COASTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
THAN FORECAST. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT. SOME FOG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE VICTORIA REGION...WITH
LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  78  96  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          72  98  77  98  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            76 103  78 102  79  /   0  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  77  98  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  96  81  95  81  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 102  77 101  77  /   0  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  78  97  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  93  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 022334 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH ONLY HIGH BASED CIGS /IF ANY/ NEXT 24 HRS AT
KLRD. OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG XPCTD TO DVLP BY LATE NIGHT FROM
KALI TO KVCT WITH WORST FLIGHT RULES XPCTD AT KVCT...WITH IFR TO
EVEN LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. VSBYS TO IMPROVE BY MID MRNG WITH VFR
THEN PREVAILING AT S TX TERMINALS /ASIDE FROM BRIEF BKN CU IN THE
MRNG/ FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. ISO SHRA MAY DVLP ALONG THE MID
TX COAST AND ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE LATE NIGHT AND MON MRNG. ATTM
FEEL THAT BEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN E/NE OF KCRP AND THUS WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY PRECIP FOR TERMINALS. BREEZY ESERLY SFC WINDS EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD...BCMG LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  78  96  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          72  98  77  98  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            76 103  78 102  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  77  98  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  96  81  95  81  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 102  77 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  78  97  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  93  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 022334 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH ONLY HIGH BASED CIGS /IF ANY/ NEXT 24 HRS AT
KLRD. OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG XPCTD TO DVLP BY LATE NIGHT FROM
KALI TO KVCT WITH WORST FLIGHT RULES XPCTD AT KVCT...WITH IFR TO
EVEN LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. VSBYS TO IMPROVE BY MID MRNG WITH VFR
THEN PREVAILING AT S TX TERMINALS /ASIDE FROM BRIEF BKN CU IN THE
MRNG/ FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. ISO SHRA MAY DVLP ALONG THE MID
TX COAST AND ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE LATE NIGHT AND MON MRNG. ATTM
FEEL THAT BEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN E/NE OF KCRP AND THUS WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY PRECIP FOR TERMINALS. BREEZY ESERLY SFC WINDS EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD...BCMG LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  78  96  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          72  98  77  98  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            76 103  78 102  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  77  98  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  96  81  95  81  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 102  77 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  78  97  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  93  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 022334 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH ONLY HIGH BASED CIGS /IF ANY/ NEXT 24 HRS AT
KLRD. OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG XPCTD TO DVLP BY LATE NIGHT FROM
KALI TO KVCT WITH WORST FLIGHT RULES XPCTD AT KVCT...WITH IFR TO
EVEN LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. VSBYS TO IMPROVE BY MID MRNG WITH VFR
THEN PREVAILING AT S TX TERMINALS /ASIDE FROM BRIEF BKN CU IN THE
MRNG/ FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. ISO SHRA MAY DVLP ALONG THE MID
TX COAST AND ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE LATE NIGHT AND MON MRNG. ATTM
FEEL THAT BEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN E/NE OF KCRP AND THUS WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY PRECIP FOR TERMINALS. BREEZY ESERLY SFC WINDS EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD...BCMG LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  78  96  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          72  98  77  98  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            76 103  78 102  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  77  98  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  96  81  95  81  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 102  77 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  78  97  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  93  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 022027
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
327 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
DEPICTS QUITE WELL THE MOISTURE ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
GULF. THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES FARTHER WEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THE WARM AND DRY
MIDLEVELS HAS LED TO THE CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN GULF
WATERS ALTHOUGH A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER INLAND CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. THIS DRIER AIRMASS WITH CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPS
INLAND IN THE LOW-MID 70S...AND ALONG THE COAST IN THE UPPER 70S.
THIS CHANGES AS MODELS MOVE IN A COASTAL TROUGH AND MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEST INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY. ONE TO TWO DEGREE COOLER
TEMPS AT H85 AND AN INFLUX OF 2+ INCH PWATS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...FIRST DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE MORNING...MOVING INLAND WITH HEATING.
MAINTAINED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW PERSISTENT FOR
MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HEAVILY RELY
ON THE INWARD PROGRESSION OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
DESPITE THE 2 INCH PWATS...DUE TO TEMPS AT H85 STILL RESIDING
AROUND THE 18C MARK...RESISTANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO
EXISTS...KEEPING ONLY 20 POPS FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT VS 30 POPS
FOR SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE
SAME THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. STRONG UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE
REGION AND WILL KEEP THINGS MAINLY QUIET. WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL KEEP A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...THINK THAT INCREASING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF FOCUS WILL SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES. HAVE
KEPT JUST SILENT 10 POPS OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BACK TO THE UPPER 90S AND JUST ABOVE 100.
HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY RISE TO 105-109 DAILY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH
TEXAS. SOME PERIODS OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH. SCEC CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR MARINE AREAS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  78  96  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          72  98  77  98  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            76 103  78 102  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  77  98  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  96  81  95  81  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 102  77 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  78  97  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  93  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021750 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL...VFR. MAY SEE MVFR BR FROM ALI-VCT...BTWN
10Z-14Z...MORE SO TOWARD VCT...WITH FORECAST PROFILES HINTING AT
POSSIBLE IFR AT VCT. OUTSIDE THE EXCEPTION OF E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER PROFILE SHOULD
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F-109F ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE MET ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE AS WE
GET A BIT MORE HEATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD
STAY OVER THE WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAINS BEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  78  95  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          99  74  97  77  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO           103  76 103  79 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  74  99  77  99  /  10  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          97  80  96  81  91  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  76  98  78  97  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  93  81  90  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021750 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL...VFR. MAY SEE MVFR BR FROM ALI-VCT...BTWN
10Z-14Z...MORE SO TOWARD VCT...WITH FORECAST PROFILES HINTING AT
POSSIBLE IFR AT VCT. OUTSIDE THE EXCEPTION OF E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER PROFILE SHOULD
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F-109F ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE MET ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE AS WE
GET A BIT MORE HEATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD
STAY OVER THE WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAINS BEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  78  95  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          99  74  97  77  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO           103  76 103  79 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  74  99  77  99  /  10  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          97  80  96  81  91  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  76  98  78  97  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  93  81  90  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 021618 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER PROFILE SHOULD
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F-109F ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE MET ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE AS WE
GET A BIT MORE HEATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD
STAY OVER THE WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAINS BEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  78  95  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          99  74  97  77  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO           103  76 103  79 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  74  99  77  99  /  10  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          97  80  96  81  91  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  76  98  78  97  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  93  81  90  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021618 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER PROFILE SHOULD
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F-109F ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE MET ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE AS WE
GET A BIT MORE HEATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD
STAY OVER THE WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAINS BEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  78  95  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          99  74  97  77  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO           103  76 103  79 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  74  99  77  99  /  10  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          97  80  96  81  91  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  76  98  78  97  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  93  81  90  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 021618 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER PROFILE SHOULD
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F-109F ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE MET ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE AS WE
GET A BIT MORE HEATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD
STAY OVER THE WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAINS BEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  78  95  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          99  74  97  77  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO           103  76 103  79 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  74  99  77  99  /  10  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          97  80  96  81  91  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  76  98  78  97  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  93  81  90  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021618 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER PROFILE SHOULD
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F-109F ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE MET ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE AS WE
GET A BIT MORE HEATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD
STAY OVER THE WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAINS BEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  78  95  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          99  74  97  77  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO           103  76 103  79 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  74  99  77  99  /  10  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          97  80  96  81  91  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  76  98  78  97  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  93  81  90  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 021140
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
640 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS KEEPING VSBYS AROUND VCT AT MVFR
CURRENTLY. ANTICIPATE FOG TO CLEAR QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH
SUNRISE. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TAKE ON A MORE
STEADY SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. VCT MAY SEE A RETURN
TO MVFR VSBYS ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO LIGHT BR
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. BAND OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH OVERLAND AND DRAPED ACROSS OUR
NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP MENTIONABLE POPS ONLY OVER MARINE
ZONES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
TOMORROW...THE BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND AS A
MORE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND PLAINS MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. TOMORROW
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WILL
BE AROUND A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH 105 TO
109 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW
AS WELL.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION
DRG THE PERIOD. YET...THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT CRP
PWAT VALUES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DRG THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD.
DECIDED TO ISSUE 10 POPS WITH NO PCPN FOR THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY
PERIOD AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MSTR SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION AND
THE UPPER RIDGE. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX TEMPERATURES
DRG THE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY PERIOD WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
105-109F ANTICIPATED FOR THE CWA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LOW MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA DRG THE PERIOD... YET
CORRESPONDING FUEL DRYNESS AND WIND WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED/
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LOW RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED
DRG THE PERIOD OWING TO WAVEWATCHIII OUTPUT. INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW... WITH SCEC CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE MSA BY
WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES SWD DRG THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  78  95  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          99  74  97  77  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO           103  76 103  79 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  74  99  77  99  /  10  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          97  80  96  81  91  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  76  98  78  97  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  93  81  90  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 020918
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
418 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. BAND OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH OVERLAND AND DRAPED ACROSS OUR
NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP MENTIONABLE POPS ONLY OVER MARINE
ZONES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
TOMORROW...THE BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND AS A
MORE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND PLAINS MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. TOMORROW
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WILL
BE AROUND A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH 105 TO
109 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW
AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION
DRG THE PERIOD. YET...THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT CRP
PWAT VALUES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DRG THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD.
DECIDED TO ISSUE 10 POPS WITH NO PCPN FOR THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY
PERIOD AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MSTR SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION AND
THE UPPER RIDGE. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX TEMPERATURES
DRG THE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY PERIOD WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
105-109F ANTICIPATED FOR THE CWA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LOW MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA DRG THE PERIOD... YET
CORRESPONDING FUEL DRYNESS AND WIND WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED/
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LOW RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED
DRG THE PERIOD OWING TO WAVEWATCHIII OUTPUT. INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW... WITH SCEC CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE MSA BY
WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES SWD DRG THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  78  95  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          99  74  97  77  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO           103  76 103  79 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  74  99  77  99  /  10  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          97  80  96  81  91  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  76  98  78  97  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  93  81  90  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 020918
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
418 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. BAND OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH OVERLAND AND DRAPED ACROSS OUR
NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP MENTIONABLE POPS ONLY OVER MARINE
ZONES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
TOMORROW...THE BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND AS A
MORE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND PLAINS MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. TOMORROW
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WILL
BE AROUND A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH 105 TO
109 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW
AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION
DRG THE PERIOD. YET...THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT CRP
PWAT VALUES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DRG THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD.
DECIDED TO ISSUE 10 POPS WITH NO PCPN FOR THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY
PERIOD AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MSTR SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION AND
THE UPPER RIDGE. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX TEMPERATURES
DRG THE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY PERIOD WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
105-109F ANTICIPATED FOR THE CWA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LOW MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA DRG THE PERIOD... YET
CORRESPONDING FUEL DRYNESS AND WIND WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED/
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LOW RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED
DRG THE PERIOD OWING TO WAVEWATCHIII OUTPUT. INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW... WITH SCEC CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE MSA BY
WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES SWD DRG THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  78  95  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          99  74  97  77  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO           103  76 103  79 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  74  99  77  99  /  10  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          97  80  96  81  91  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 102  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  76  98  78  97  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  93  81  90  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 020548
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1248 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 06Z UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH LIGHT
AND GENERALLY VARIABLE WINDS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER ALI AND
VCT DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE...LOWERING VSBYS TO
MVFR AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    99  77  96  79  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA         100  75  97  77  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO           103  79 103  79 103  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE            100  76  98  76  98  /  10  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          97  78  90  81  91  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  76 101  78 102  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE       100  77  96  78  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       97  79  89  81  89  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 020230 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
930 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHANGE IN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE ALL
POPS FOR LAND AREAS AND TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS MARINE AREAS.
DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT IS NUDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CHANCES OFFSHORE ARE MINIMAL AS GREATEST MOISTURE DEPTH IS
ACROSS BRO MSA. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS
WITH FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. SHOULD FEEL RATHER COMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS /COMPARED TO WHAT IT TYPICALLY
FEELS LIKE THIS TIME OF YEAR/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  99  77  96  79  /   0  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          72 100  75  97  77  /   0  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            76 103  79 103  79  /   0  10  10  10   0
ALICE             73 100  76  98  76  /   0  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          76  97  78  90  81  /   0  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           75 102  76 101  78  /   0  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        73 100  77  96  78  /   0  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  97  79  89  81  /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 020230 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
930 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHANGE IN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE ALL
POPS FOR LAND AREAS AND TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS MARINE AREAS.
DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT IS NUDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CHANCES OFFSHORE ARE MINIMAL AS GREATEST MOISTURE DEPTH IS
ACROSS BRO MSA. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS
WITH FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. SHOULD FEEL RATHER COMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS /COMPARED TO WHAT IT TYPICALLY
FEELS LIKE THIS TIME OF YEAR/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  99  77  96  79  /   0  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          72 100  75  97  77  /   0  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            76 103  79 103  79  /   0  10  10  10   0
ALICE             73 100  76  98  76  /   0  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          76  97  78  90  81  /   0  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           75 102  76 101  78  /   0  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        73 100  77  96  78  /   0  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  97  79  89  81  /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 012333 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
633 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT KCRP/KLRD WITH LITTLE TO NO LLVL
CLOUD COVER. KVCT/KALI XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR MOST OF TONIGHT WITH A
SMALL WINDOW LATE IN THE NIGHT WHERE MVFR/IFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR AS
FOG TRIES TO DVLP. BEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE VCNTY
KALI AND THUS HAVE WORST FLIGHT RULES /TEMPO IFR/ FOR KALI. VFR
TO THEN PREVAIL AT ALL S TX TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SEABREEZE CURRENTLY SPREADING INLAND
WITH ESERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AT KCRP/KALI EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...EVENTUALLY REACHING KLRD AROUND MID EVENING...WITH ALL
TERMINALS BCMG LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  99  77  96  79  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          72 100  75  97  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            76 103  79 103  79  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             73 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          76  97  78  90  81  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           75 102  76 101  78  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        73 100  77  96  78  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  97  79  89  81  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 012333 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
633 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT KCRP/KLRD WITH LITTLE TO NO LLVL
CLOUD COVER. KVCT/KALI XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR MOST OF TONIGHT WITH A
SMALL WINDOW LATE IN THE NIGHT WHERE MVFR/IFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR AS
FOG TRIES TO DVLP. BEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE VCNTY
KALI AND THUS HAVE WORST FLIGHT RULES /TEMPO IFR/ FOR KALI. VFR
TO THEN PREVAIL AT ALL S TX TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SEABREEZE CURRENTLY SPREADING INLAND
WITH ESERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AT KCRP/KALI EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...EVENTUALLY REACHING KLRD AROUND MID EVENING...WITH ALL
TERMINALS BCMG LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  99  77  96  79  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          72 100  75  97  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            76 103  79 103  79  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             73 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          76  97  78  90  81  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           75 102  76 101  78  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        73 100  77  96  78  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  97  79  89  81  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 012333 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
633 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT KCRP/KLRD WITH LITTLE TO NO LLVL
CLOUD COVER. KVCT/KALI XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR MOST OF TONIGHT WITH A
SMALL WINDOW LATE IN THE NIGHT WHERE MVFR/IFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR AS
FOG TRIES TO DVLP. BEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE VCNTY
KALI AND THUS HAVE WORST FLIGHT RULES /TEMPO IFR/ FOR KALI. VFR
TO THEN PREVAIL AT ALL S TX TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SEABREEZE CURRENTLY SPREADING INLAND
WITH ESERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AT KCRP/KALI EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...EVENTUALLY REACHING KLRD AROUND MID EVENING...WITH ALL
TERMINALS BCMG LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  99  77  96  79  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          72 100  75  97  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            76 103  79 103  79  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             73 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          76  97  78  90  81  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           75 102  76 101  78  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        73 100  77  96  78  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  97  79  89  81  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011948
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DRIER AIR NOSING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO FAR OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH TEXAS...BUT WILL PUSH INTO THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. SHOULD SEE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH BY THE DAYTIME ON
SUNDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR...EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT TO DROP A BIT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S AREA WIDE. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR THE LEVELS FROM TODAY...AND THE
PAST FEW DAYS. SEE NO REASON THAT MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST
WOULDNT HIT 100 DEGREES. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE DIFFERS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR REASONS NOT CLEAR TO ME...WITH THE GFS BEING WARMER.
NOT GOING QUITE AS HIGH AS GFS IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT DEFINITELY
LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE AVERAGE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
WESTERN GULF IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WESTWARD...AND COULD PUSH PRECIP
BACK INTO THE MARINE ZONES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A 20 POP IN
MARINE AREAS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE MID/UPR LVL RIDGE CONTRACTING A BIT OVER THE SW CONUS ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING IN THE NW GULF TO SURGE
INTO THE COASTAL BEND. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 2.2` WHICH IS NOT
QUITE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS INTRODUCED 20% POPS FOR THE COASTAL BEND REGION MONDAY. ATMOS
THEN DRIES OUT AGAIN THEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD.
TEMPS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER MONDAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. MAX HEAT INDICIES OF 105 TO 109 CAN
BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
HAZARDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  99  77  96  79  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          72 100  75  97  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            76 103  79 103  79  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             73 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          76  97  78  90  81  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           75 102  76 101  78  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        73 100  77  96  78  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  97  79  89  81  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 011731
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL SEE CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN
FEW-SCT. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN TAFS. OVERNIGHT FOG IS A
QUESTION...BUT THINK IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF AND
NOT RESTRICT VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE TEMPO MVFR GROUPS
FOR ALI AND VCT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP AT ALL AS
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG OVER ALI HAS BEEN CAUSING VSBYS TO BOUNCE
AROUND LIFR/IFR THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A MENTION AT TERMINALS AT
THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALI ONCE AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING MVFR VSBYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. BAND OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO
1.2-1.4 INCHES OVER LAND BY SUNDAY. KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER INLAND AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH
THAT ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATER.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT...OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. NOT MANY CHANGES FROM DAY TO DAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOONS...THOUGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECT TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SPS CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
DEPICTS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT CRP SOUNDINGS WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY YET BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OWING TO MSTR
CONSIDERATIONS...WL INTRODUCE 10 POPS WITHOUT PCPN OVER THE ERN
CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER POPS AFTERWARD. EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OWING TO
INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES...NORTH OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING WL DEEPENING SFC TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WL REMAIN LOW DRG THE PERIOD
OWING TO WAVEWATCHIII OUTPUT. EXPECT MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY 105F OR LESS OVER THE CWA. LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA EACH DAY...YET WIND/FUEL DRYNESS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE TO ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  97  77  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  99  75  96  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 103  78 102  78  /  10  10   0  10   0
ALICE             74 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  94  80  91  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 103  76 101  77  /  10  10   0  10   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  92  80  90  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 011731
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL SEE CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN
FEW-SCT. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN TAFS. OVERNIGHT FOG IS A
QUESTION...BUT THINK IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF AND
NOT RESTRICT VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE TEMPO MVFR GROUPS
FOR ALI AND VCT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP AT ALL AS
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG OVER ALI HAS BEEN CAUSING VSBYS TO BOUNCE
AROUND LIFR/IFR THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A MENTION AT TERMINALS AT
THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALI ONCE AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING MVFR VSBYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. BAND OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO
1.2-1.4 INCHES OVER LAND BY SUNDAY. KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER INLAND AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH
THAT ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATER.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT...OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. NOT MANY CHANGES FROM DAY TO DAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOONS...THOUGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECT TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SPS CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
DEPICTS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT CRP SOUNDINGS WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY YET BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OWING TO MSTR
CONSIDERATIONS...WL INTRODUCE 10 POPS WITHOUT PCPN OVER THE ERN
CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER POPS AFTERWARD. EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OWING TO
INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES...NORTH OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING WL DEEPENING SFC TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WL REMAIN LOW DRG THE PERIOD
OWING TO WAVEWATCHIII OUTPUT. EXPECT MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY 105F OR LESS OVER THE CWA. LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA EACH DAY...YET WIND/FUEL DRYNESS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE TO ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  97  77  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  99  75  96  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 103  78 102  78  /  10  10   0  10   0
ALICE             74 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  94  80  91  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 103  76 101  77  /  10  10   0  10   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  92  80  90  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011156
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
656 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG OVER ALI HAS BEEN CAUSING VSBYS TO BOUNCE
AROUND LIFR/IFR THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A MENTION AT TERMINALS AT
THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALI ONCE AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. BAND OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO
1.2-1.4 INCHES OVER LAND BY SUNDAY. KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER INLAND AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH
THAT ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATER.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT...OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. NOT MANY CHANGES FROM DAY TO DAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOONS...THOUGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECT TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SPS CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
DEPICTS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT CRP SOUNDINGS WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY YET BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OWING TO MSTR
CONSIDERATIONS...WL INTRODUCE 10 POPS WITHOUT PCPN OVER THE ERN
CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER POPS AFTERWARD. EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OWING TO
INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES...NORTH OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING WL DEEPENING SFC TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WL REMAIN LOW DRG THE PERIOD
OWING TO WAVEWATCHIII OUTPUT. EXPECT MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY 105F OR LESS OVER THE CWA. LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA EACH DAY...YET WIND/FUEL DRYNESS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE TO ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  97  77  95  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  74  99  75  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           102  78 103  78 102  /  20  10  10   0  10
ALICE            101  74 100  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          95  79  94  80  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 103  76 101  /  20  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        99  75  99  76  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  92  80  90  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 011156
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
656 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG OVER ALI HAS BEEN CAUSING VSBYS TO BOUNCE
AROUND LIFR/IFR THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A MENTION AT TERMINALS AT
THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALI ONCE AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. BAND OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO
1.2-1.4 INCHES OVER LAND BY SUNDAY. KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER INLAND AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH
THAT ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATER.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT...OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. NOT MANY CHANGES FROM DAY TO DAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOONS...THOUGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECT TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SPS CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
DEPICTS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT CRP SOUNDINGS WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY YET BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OWING TO MSTR
CONSIDERATIONS...WL INTRODUCE 10 POPS WITHOUT PCPN OVER THE ERN
CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER POPS AFTERWARD. EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OWING TO
INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES...NORTH OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING WL DEEPENING SFC TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WL REMAIN LOW DRG THE PERIOD
OWING TO WAVEWATCHIII OUTPUT. EXPECT MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY 105F OR LESS OVER THE CWA. LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA EACH DAY...YET WIND/FUEL DRYNESS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE TO ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  97  77  95  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  74  99  75  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           102  78 103  78 102  /  20  10  10   0  10
ALICE            101  74 100  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          95  79  94  80  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 103  76 101  /  20  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        99  75  99  76  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  92  80  90  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011156
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
656 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG OVER ALI HAS BEEN CAUSING VSBYS TO BOUNCE
AROUND LIFR/IFR THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A MENTION AT TERMINALS AT
THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALI ONCE AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. BAND OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO
1.2-1.4 INCHES OVER LAND BY SUNDAY. KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER INLAND AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH
THAT ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATER.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT...OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. NOT MANY CHANGES FROM DAY TO DAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOONS...THOUGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECT TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SPS CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
DEPICTS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT CRP SOUNDINGS WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY YET BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OWING TO MSTR
CONSIDERATIONS...WL INTRODUCE 10 POPS WITHOUT PCPN OVER THE ERN
CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER POPS AFTERWARD. EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OWING TO
INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES...NORTH OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING WL DEEPENING SFC TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WL REMAIN LOW DRG THE PERIOD
OWING TO WAVEWATCHIII OUTPUT. EXPECT MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY 105F OR LESS OVER THE CWA. LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA EACH DAY...YET WIND/FUEL DRYNESS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE TO ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  97  77  95  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  74  99  75  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           102  78 103  78 102  /  20  10  10   0  10
ALICE            101  74 100  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          95  79  94  80  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 103  76 101  /  20  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        99  75  99  76  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  92  80  90  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 011156
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
656 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG OVER ALI HAS BEEN CAUSING VSBYS TO BOUNCE
AROUND LIFR/IFR THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A MENTION AT TERMINALS AT
THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALI ONCE AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. BAND OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO
1.2-1.4 INCHES OVER LAND BY SUNDAY. KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER INLAND AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH
THAT ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATER.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT...OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. NOT MANY CHANGES FROM DAY TO DAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOONS...THOUGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECT TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SPS CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
DEPICTS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT CRP SOUNDINGS WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY YET BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OWING TO MSTR
CONSIDERATIONS...WL INTRODUCE 10 POPS WITHOUT PCPN OVER THE ERN
CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER POPS AFTERWARD. EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OWING TO
INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES...NORTH OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING WL DEEPENING SFC TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WL REMAIN LOW DRG THE PERIOD
OWING TO WAVEWATCHIII OUTPUT. EXPECT MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY 105F OR LESS OVER THE CWA. LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA EACH DAY...YET WIND/FUEL DRYNESS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE TO ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  97  77  95  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  74  99  75  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           102  78 103  78 102  /  20  10  10   0  10
ALICE            101  74 100  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          95  79  94  80  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 103  76 101  /  20  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        99  75  99  76  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  92  80  90  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010912
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
412 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. BAND OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO
1.2-1.4 INCHES OVER LAND BY SUNDAY. KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER INLAND AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH
THAT ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATER.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT...OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. NOT MANY CHANGES FROM DAY TO DAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOONS...THOUGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECT TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SPS CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
DEPICTS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT CRP SOUNDINGS WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY YET BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OWING TO MSTR
CONSIDERATIONS...WL INTRODUCE 10 POPS WITHOUT PCPN OVER THE ERN
CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER POPS AFTERWARD. EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OWING TO
INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES...NORTH OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING WL DEEPENING SFC TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WL REMAIN LOW DRG THE PERIOD
OWING TO WAVEWATCHIII OUTPUT. EXPECT MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY 105F OR LESS OVER THE CWA. LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA EACH DAY...YET WIND/FUEL DRYNESS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE TO ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  97  77  95  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  74  99  75  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           102  78 103  78 102  /  20  10  10   0  10
ALICE            101  74 100  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          95  79  94  80  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 103  76 101  /  20  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        99  75  99  76  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  92  80  90  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010912
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
412 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. BAND OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO
1.2-1.4 INCHES OVER LAND BY SUNDAY. KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER INLAND AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH
THAT ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATER.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT...OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. NOT MANY CHANGES FROM DAY TO DAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOONS...THOUGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECT TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SPS CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
DEPICTS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT CRP SOUNDINGS WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY YET BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OWING TO MSTR
CONSIDERATIONS...WL INTRODUCE 10 POPS WITHOUT PCPN OVER THE ERN
CWA/MSA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER POPS AFTERWARD. EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OWING TO
INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES...NORTH OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING WL DEEPENING SFC TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WL REMAIN LOW DRG THE PERIOD
OWING TO WAVEWATCHIII OUTPUT. EXPECT MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY 105F OR LESS OVER THE CWA. LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA EACH DAY...YET WIND/FUEL DRYNESS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE TO ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  97  77  95  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  74  99  75  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           102  78 103  78 102  /  20  10  10   0  10
ALICE            101  74 100  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          95  79  94  80  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 103  76 101  /  20  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        99  75  99  76  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  92  80  90  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010545
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1245 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BRIEFLY
BEFORE SUNRISE LIGHT PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP AT VCT AND
ALI...REDUCING VSBYS AT VCT TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS (KEPT ALI AT
VFR AT THIS TIME). GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHRA/TSMS EXPECTED...AND
COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MENTION AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  76  96  77  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  74  98  75  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           103  78 103  78 103  /  20  10  10   0   0
ALICE            100  75  98  75 100  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          95  79  91  80  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 103  76 103  /  20  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        99  76  98  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  90  80  90  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010545
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1245 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BRIEFLY
BEFORE SUNRISE LIGHT PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP AT VCT AND
ALI...REDUCING VSBYS AT VCT TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS (KEPT ALI AT
VFR AT THIS TIME). GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHRA/TSMS EXPECTED...AND
COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MENTION AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  76  96  77  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  74  98  75  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           103  78 103  78 103  /  20  10  10   0   0
ALICE            100  75  98  75 100  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          95  79  91  80  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 103  76 103  /  20  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        99  76  98  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  90  80  90  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010241 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
941 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY (AND I MEAN SLOWLY) COMING TO
AN END WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER...BUT STILL SOME GOING ON IN
BRUSH COUNTRY...RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...BUT WILL END THE RAIN AFTER 06Z FARTHER WEST AS ACTIVITY
THERE COMES TO AN END. COULD STILL SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WITH
ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND WORKED OVER...BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND VICTORIA AREA. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS-NEEDED (NOT
EASY GIVEN RAIN- COOLED AIR)...AND BLENDED SOME OF THESE CHANGES
WITH THE SECOND PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY AS DRIER
AIR REALLY STARTS TO COME IN DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION OVER THE EAST. FARTHER WEST...COULD HAVE SOMETHING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF MOISTURE REMAINS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
IS NOT OVER-POWERING. UPDATES ARE ISSUED.

&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT TO CHANGE WITH THE MARINE PACKAGE...AS A LARGE
PART OF THE CONVECTION REMAINED INLAND. STILL COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE WHERE CONVECTION IS GOING
ON OUTSIDE OF CWFA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY EAST THEN
SOUTH OF THE AREA BASED ON UPPER FLOW PATTERNS. THAT IS ABOUT IT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD
WANE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. WILL UPDATE AGAIN WHEN ACTIVITY WANES
AND ADJUST OTHER DATA ACCORDINGLY.

SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...DO HAVE SOME REMNANT CONVECTION WHICH MAY IMPACT ALL
BUT KVCT (VCSH) FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OR THREE THEN BE OVER
(TEMPOS TIL 02/03Z). AFTER THAT...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS...MAYBE SOME 5SM-6SM BR AOA 10Z AT KALI AND/OR KVCT
BUT BFR 14Z WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT (MAINLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST) IN THE MORNING THEN BECOME EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS AS SEA BREEZE KICKS
IN JUST A BIT BUT WITH A WARM DAY ON SATURDAY NOT EXPECTING A
STRONG SEA-BREEZE. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR COMING IN ON SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION LIKE WE ARE
SEEING TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...HAVE FINALLY
DEVELOPED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HANDLING
THIS REASONABLY WELL...ENDS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 02Z. HAVE
20 POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE EVENING...WITH 10S AND 20S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH QPF...GFS
DEFINITELY STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE. SOMETHING OF A MIX BETWEEN NAM
AND ECMWF APPEARS THE BEST. THAT SAID...BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ARE
QUIET ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN MARINE AREA. HAVE CUT POPS FOR
INLAND AREAS IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP AREA WIDE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH MOISTURE AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND
COULD GET SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP ONCE AGAIN.

WITH NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO
APPROACH THE SAME VALUES WE/RE SEEING TODAY AS WE SHOULD KEEP A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...NOT THE ONSHORE FLOW WE ARE USED TO THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AT LEAST BETWEEN 100
AND 105...BUT COULD BE 105 TO 109 IF WE DON`T MIX OUT THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS REPOSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE LEE DEVELOPMENT
GENERATING TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A DECAYING BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE ZONES...THEN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HEAT INDEX LEVELS WILL FLIRT WITH SPS CRITERIA ON A DAILY
BASIS...THOUGH ACTUAL ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  98  76  96  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          73 100  74  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            77 103  78 103  78  /  30  20  10  10   0
ALICE             74 100  75  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  95  79  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  75 103  76  /  30  20  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        74  99  76  98  76  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  92  79  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010241 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
941 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY (AND I MEAN SLOWLY) COMING TO
AN END WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER...BUT STILL SOME GOING ON IN
BRUSH COUNTRY...RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...BUT WILL END THE RAIN AFTER 06Z FARTHER WEST AS ACTIVITY
THERE COMES TO AN END. COULD STILL SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WITH
ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND WORKED OVER...BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND VICTORIA AREA. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS-NEEDED (NOT
EASY GIVEN RAIN- COOLED AIR)...AND BLENDED SOME OF THESE CHANGES
WITH THE SECOND PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY AS DRIER
AIR REALLY STARTS TO COME IN DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION OVER THE EAST. FARTHER WEST...COULD HAVE SOMETHING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF MOISTURE REMAINS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
IS NOT OVER-POWERING. UPDATES ARE ISSUED.

&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT TO CHANGE WITH THE MARINE PACKAGE...AS A LARGE
PART OF THE CONVECTION REMAINED INLAND. STILL COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE WHERE CONVECTION IS GOING
ON OUTSIDE OF CWFA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY EAST THEN
SOUTH OF THE AREA BASED ON UPPER FLOW PATTERNS. THAT IS ABOUT IT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD
WANE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. WILL UPDATE AGAIN WHEN ACTIVITY WANES
AND ADJUST OTHER DATA ACCORDINGLY.

SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...DO HAVE SOME REMNANT CONVECTION WHICH MAY IMPACT ALL
BUT KVCT (VCSH) FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OR THREE THEN BE OVER
(TEMPOS TIL 02/03Z). AFTER THAT...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS...MAYBE SOME 5SM-6SM BR AOA 10Z AT KALI AND/OR KVCT
BUT BFR 14Z WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT (MAINLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST) IN THE MORNING THEN BECOME EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS AS SEA BREEZE KICKS
IN JUST A BIT BUT WITH A WARM DAY ON SATURDAY NOT EXPECTING A
STRONG SEA-BREEZE. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR COMING IN ON SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION LIKE WE ARE
SEEING TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...HAVE FINALLY
DEVELOPED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HANDLING
THIS REASONABLY WELL...ENDS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 02Z. HAVE
20 POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE EVENING...WITH 10S AND 20S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH QPF...GFS
DEFINITELY STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE. SOMETHING OF A MIX BETWEEN NAM
AND ECMWF APPEARS THE BEST. THAT SAID...BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ARE
QUIET ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN MARINE AREA. HAVE CUT POPS FOR
INLAND AREAS IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP AREA WIDE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH MOISTURE AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND
COULD GET SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP ONCE AGAIN.

WITH NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO
APPROACH THE SAME VALUES WE/RE SEEING TODAY AS WE SHOULD KEEP A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...NOT THE ONSHORE FLOW WE ARE USED TO THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AT LEAST BETWEEN 100
AND 105...BUT COULD BE 105 TO 109 IF WE DON`T MIX OUT THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS REPOSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE LEE DEVELOPMENT
GENERATING TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A DECAYING BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE ZONES...THEN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HEAT INDEX LEVELS WILL FLIRT WITH SPS CRITERIA ON A DAILY
BASIS...THOUGH ACTUAL ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  98  76  96  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          73 100  74  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            77 103  78 103  78  /  30  20  10  10   0
ALICE             74 100  75  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  95  79  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  75 103  76  /  30  20  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        74  99  76  98  76  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  92  79  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010241 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
941 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY (AND I MEAN SLOWLY) COMING TO
AN END WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER...BUT STILL SOME GOING ON IN
BRUSH COUNTRY...RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...BUT WILL END THE RAIN AFTER 06Z FARTHER WEST AS ACTIVITY
THERE COMES TO AN END. COULD STILL SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WITH
ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND WORKED OVER...BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND VICTORIA AREA. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS-NEEDED (NOT
EASY GIVEN RAIN- COOLED AIR)...AND BLENDED SOME OF THESE CHANGES
WITH THE SECOND PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY AS DRIER
AIR REALLY STARTS TO COME IN DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION OVER THE EAST. FARTHER WEST...COULD HAVE SOMETHING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF MOISTURE REMAINS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
IS NOT OVER-POWERING. UPDATES ARE ISSUED.

&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT TO CHANGE WITH THE MARINE PACKAGE...AS A LARGE
PART OF THE CONVECTION REMAINED INLAND. STILL COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE WHERE CONVECTION IS GOING
ON OUTSIDE OF CWFA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY EAST THEN
SOUTH OF THE AREA BASED ON UPPER FLOW PATTERNS. THAT IS ABOUT IT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD
WANE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. WILL UPDATE AGAIN WHEN ACTIVITY WANES
AND ADJUST OTHER DATA ACCORDINGLY.

SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...DO HAVE SOME REMNANT CONVECTION WHICH MAY IMPACT ALL
BUT KVCT (VCSH) FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OR THREE THEN BE OVER
(TEMPOS TIL 02/03Z). AFTER THAT...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS...MAYBE SOME 5SM-6SM BR AOA 10Z AT KALI AND/OR KVCT
BUT BFR 14Z WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT (MAINLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST) IN THE MORNING THEN BECOME EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS AS SEA BREEZE KICKS
IN JUST A BIT BUT WITH A WARM DAY ON SATURDAY NOT EXPECTING A
STRONG SEA-BREEZE. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR COMING IN ON SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION LIKE WE ARE
SEEING TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...HAVE FINALLY
DEVELOPED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HANDLING
THIS REASONABLY WELL...ENDS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 02Z. HAVE
20 POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE EVENING...WITH 10S AND 20S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH QPF...GFS
DEFINITELY STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE. SOMETHING OF A MIX BETWEEN NAM
AND ECMWF APPEARS THE BEST. THAT SAID...BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ARE
QUIET ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN MARINE AREA. HAVE CUT POPS FOR
INLAND AREAS IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP AREA WIDE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH MOISTURE AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND
COULD GET SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP ONCE AGAIN.

WITH NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO
APPROACH THE SAME VALUES WE/RE SEEING TODAY AS WE SHOULD KEEP A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...NOT THE ONSHORE FLOW WE ARE USED TO THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AT LEAST BETWEEN 100
AND 105...BUT COULD BE 105 TO 109 IF WE DON`T MIX OUT THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS REPOSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE LEE DEVELOPMENT
GENERATING TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A DECAYING BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE ZONES...THEN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HEAT INDEX LEVELS WILL FLIRT WITH SPS CRITERIA ON A DAILY
BASIS...THOUGH ACTUAL ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  98  76  96  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          73 100  74  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            77 103  78 103  78  /  30  20  10  10   0
ALICE             74 100  75  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  95  79  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  75 103  76  /  30  20  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        74  99  76  98  76  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  92  79  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010241 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
941 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY (AND I MEAN SLOWLY) COMING TO
AN END WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER...BUT STILL SOME GOING ON IN
BRUSH COUNTRY...RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...BUT WILL END THE RAIN AFTER 06Z FARTHER WEST AS ACTIVITY
THERE COMES TO AN END. COULD STILL SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WITH
ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND WORKED OVER...BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND VICTORIA AREA. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS-NEEDED (NOT
EASY GIVEN RAIN- COOLED AIR)...AND BLENDED SOME OF THESE CHANGES
WITH THE SECOND PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY AS DRIER
AIR REALLY STARTS TO COME IN DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION OVER THE EAST. FARTHER WEST...COULD HAVE SOMETHING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF MOISTURE REMAINS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
IS NOT OVER-POWERING. UPDATES ARE ISSUED.

&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT TO CHANGE WITH THE MARINE PACKAGE...AS A LARGE
PART OF THE CONVECTION REMAINED INLAND. STILL COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE WHERE CONVECTION IS GOING
ON OUTSIDE OF CWFA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY EAST THEN
SOUTH OF THE AREA BASED ON UPPER FLOW PATTERNS. THAT IS ABOUT IT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD
WANE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. WILL UPDATE AGAIN WHEN ACTIVITY WANES
AND ADJUST OTHER DATA ACCORDINGLY.

SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...DO HAVE SOME REMNANT CONVECTION WHICH MAY IMPACT ALL
BUT KVCT (VCSH) FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OR THREE THEN BE OVER
(TEMPOS TIL 02/03Z). AFTER THAT...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS...MAYBE SOME 5SM-6SM BR AOA 10Z AT KALI AND/OR KVCT
BUT BFR 14Z WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT (MAINLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST) IN THE MORNING THEN BECOME EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS AS SEA BREEZE KICKS
IN JUST A BIT BUT WITH A WARM DAY ON SATURDAY NOT EXPECTING A
STRONG SEA-BREEZE. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR COMING IN ON SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION LIKE WE ARE
SEEING TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...HAVE FINALLY
DEVELOPED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HANDLING
THIS REASONABLY WELL...ENDS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 02Z. HAVE
20 POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE EVENING...WITH 10S AND 20S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH QPF...GFS
DEFINITELY STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE. SOMETHING OF A MIX BETWEEN NAM
AND ECMWF APPEARS THE BEST. THAT SAID...BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ARE
QUIET ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN MARINE AREA. HAVE CUT POPS FOR
INLAND AREAS IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP AREA WIDE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH MOISTURE AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND
COULD GET SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP ONCE AGAIN.

WITH NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO
APPROACH THE SAME VALUES WE/RE SEEING TODAY AS WE SHOULD KEEP A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...NOT THE ONSHORE FLOW WE ARE USED TO THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AT LEAST BETWEEN 100
AND 105...BUT COULD BE 105 TO 109 IF WE DON`T MIX OUT THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS REPOSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE LEE DEVELOPMENT
GENERATING TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A DECAYING BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE ZONES...THEN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HEAT INDEX LEVELS WILL FLIRT WITH SPS CRITERIA ON A DAILY
BASIS...THOUGH ACTUAL ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  98  76  96  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          73 100  74  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            77 103  78 103  78  /  30  20  10  10   0
ALICE             74 100  75  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  95  79  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  75 103  76  /  30  20  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        74  99  76  98  76  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  92  79  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 312354 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
654 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD
WANE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. WILL UPDATE AGAIN WHEN ACTIVITY WANES
AND ADJUST OTHER DATA ACCORDINGLY.

SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...DO HAVE SOME REMNANT CONVECTION WHICH MAY IMPACT ALL
BUT KVCT (VCSH) FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OR THREE THEN BE OVER
(TEMPOS TIL 02/03Z). AFTER THAT...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS...MAYBE SOME 5SM-6SM BR AOA 10Z AT KALI AND/OR KVCT
BUT BFR 14Z WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT (MAINLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST) IN THE MORNING THEN BECOME EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS AS SEA BREEZE KICKS
IN JUST A BIT BUT WITH A WARM DAY ON SATURDAY NOT EXPECTING A
STRONG SEA-BREEZE. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR COMING IN ON SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION LIKE WE ARE
SEEING TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...HAVE FINALLY
DEVELOPED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HANDLING
THIS REASONABLY WELL...ENDS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 02Z. HAVE
20 POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE EVENING...WITH 10S AND 20S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH QPF...GFS
DEFINITELY STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE. SOMETHING OF A MIX BETWEEN NAM
AND ECMWF APPEARS THE BEST. THAT SAID...BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ARE
QUIET ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN MARINE AREA. HAVE CUT POPS FOR
INLAND AREAS IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP AREA WIDE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH MOISTURE AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND
COULD GET SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP ONCE AGAIN.

WITH NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO
APPROACH THE SAME VALUES WE/RE SEEING TODAY AS WE SHOULD KEEP A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...NOT THE ONSHORE FLOW WE ARE USED TO THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AT LEAST BETWEEN 100
AND 105...BUT COULD BE 105 TO 109 IF WE DON`T MIX OUT THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS REPOSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE LEE DEVELOPMENT
GENERATING TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A DECAYING BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE ZONES...THEN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HEAT INDEX LEVELS WILL FLIRT WITH SPS CRITERIA ON A DAILY
BASIS...THOUGH ACTUAL ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  98  76  96  77  /  40  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74 100  74  98  75  /  30  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 103  78 103  78  /  30  20  10  10   0
ALICE             75 100  75  98  75  /  40  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  95  79  91  80  /  40  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 102  75 103  76  /  30  20  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76  98  76  /  40  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  92  79  90  80  /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 312354 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
654 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD
WANE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. WILL UPDATE AGAIN WHEN ACTIVITY WANES
AND ADJUST OTHER DATA ACCORDINGLY.

SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...DO HAVE SOME REMNANT CONVECTION WHICH MAY IMPACT ALL
BUT KVCT (VCSH) FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OR THREE THEN BE OVER
(TEMPOS TIL 02/03Z). AFTER THAT...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS...MAYBE SOME 5SM-6SM BR AOA 10Z AT KALI AND/OR KVCT
BUT BFR 14Z WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT (MAINLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST) IN THE MORNING THEN BECOME EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY LESS THAN 11 KNOTS AS SEA BREEZE KICKS
IN JUST A BIT BUT WITH A WARM DAY ON SATURDAY NOT EXPECTING A
STRONG SEA-BREEZE. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR COMING IN ON SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION LIKE WE ARE
SEEING TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...HAVE FINALLY
DEVELOPED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HANDLING
THIS REASONABLY WELL...ENDS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 02Z. HAVE
20 POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE EVENING...WITH 10S AND 20S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH QPF...GFS
DEFINITELY STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE. SOMETHING OF A MIX BETWEEN NAM
AND ECMWF APPEARS THE BEST. THAT SAID...BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ARE
QUIET ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN MARINE AREA. HAVE CUT POPS FOR
INLAND AREAS IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP AREA WIDE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH MOISTURE AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND
COULD GET SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP ONCE AGAIN.

WITH NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO
APPROACH THE SAME VALUES WE/RE SEEING TODAY AS WE SHOULD KEEP A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...NOT THE ONSHORE FLOW WE ARE USED TO THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AT LEAST BETWEEN 100
AND 105...BUT COULD BE 105 TO 109 IF WE DON`T MIX OUT THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS REPOSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE LEE DEVELOPMENT
GENERATING TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A DECAYING BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE ZONES...THEN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HEAT INDEX LEVELS WILL FLIRT WITH SPS CRITERIA ON A DAILY
BASIS...THOUGH ACTUAL ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  98  76  96  77  /  40  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74 100  74  98  75  /  30  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 103  78 103  78  /  30  20  10  10   0
ALICE             75 100  75  98  75  /  40  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  95  79  91  80  /  40  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 102  75 103  76  /  30  20  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76  98  76  /  40  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  92  79  90  80  /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 312009
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...HAVE FINALLY
DEVELOPED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HANDLING
THIS REASONABLY WELL...ENDS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 02Z. HAVE
20 POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE EVENING...WITH 10S AND 20S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH QPF...GFS
DEFINITELY STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE. SOMETHING OF A MIX BETWEEN NAM
AND ECMWF APPEARS THE BEST. THAT SAID...BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ARE
QUIET ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN MARINE AREA. HAVE CUT POPS FOR
INLAND AREAS IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP AREA WIDE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH MOISTURE AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND
COULD GET SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP ONCE AGAIN.

WITH NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO
APPROACH THE SAME VALUES WE/RE SEEING TODAY AS WE SHOULD KEEP A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...NOT THE ONSHORE FLOW WE ARE USED TO THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AT LEAST BETWEEN 100
AND 105...BUT COULD BE 105 TO 109 IF WE DON`T MIX OUT THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS REPOSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE LEE DEVELOPMENT
GENERATING TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A DECAYING BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE ZONES...THEN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HEAT INDEX LEVELS WILL FLIRT WITH SPS CRITERIA ON A DAILY
BASIS...THOUGH ACTUAL ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  98  76  96  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74 100  74  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 103  78 103  78  /  20  20  10  10   0
ALICE             75 100  75  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  95  79  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 102  75 103  76  /  20  20  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76  98  76  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  92  79  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 312009
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...HAVE FINALLY
DEVELOPED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HANDLING
THIS REASONABLY WELL...ENDS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 02Z. HAVE
20 POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE EVENING...WITH 10S AND 20S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH QPF...GFS
DEFINITELY STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE. SOMETHING OF A MIX BETWEEN NAM
AND ECMWF APPEARS THE BEST. THAT SAID...BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ARE
QUIET ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN MARINE AREA. HAVE CUT POPS FOR
INLAND AREAS IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP AREA WIDE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH MOISTURE AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND
COULD GET SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP ONCE AGAIN.

WITH NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO
APPROACH THE SAME VALUES WE/RE SEEING TODAY AS WE SHOULD KEEP A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...NOT THE ONSHORE FLOW WE ARE USED TO THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AT LEAST BETWEEN 100
AND 105...BUT COULD BE 105 TO 109 IF WE DON`T MIX OUT THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS REPOSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE LEE DEVELOPMENT
GENERATING TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A DECAYING BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE ZONES...THEN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HEAT INDEX LEVELS WILL FLIRT WITH SPS CRITERIA ON A DAILY
BASIS...THOUGH ACTUAL ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  98  76  96  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74 100  74  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 103  78 103  78  /  20  20  10  10   0
ALICE             75 100  75  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  95  79  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 102  75 103  76  /  20  20  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76  98  76  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  92  79  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 311141
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF ALI/CRP/VCT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OFTEN VARYING BETWEEN A WESTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...GOES SOUNDER SATELLITE
INDICATES HIGHER PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES (+2.0 INCHES) ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTH TX MORE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TODAY AND CARRYING INTO THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY DRIER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
FALLING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OR STORM. KEPT 20 POP MENTIONED THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WRT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A GENERALLY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES WARMER WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT/SUGGEST A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE MSA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. INTRODUCED 20 POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOREGOING.
AFTERWARD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PWAT
VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED MONDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE CWA TO REMAIN GENERALLY 105F OR BELOW. AS
THE APPROXIMATELY E-W AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SWD NEAR THE
LATITUDES OF THE CWA/MSA...INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK/MODERATE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CWA/MSA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  74  97  76  96  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          97  75 100  74  98  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           101  78 102  78 103  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             97  75 100  75  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  77  91  79  91  /  20  20  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 102  77 103  /  20  20  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        96  74  98  74  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  77  89  79  90  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 311141
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF ALI/CRP/VCT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OFTEN VARYING BETWEEN A WESTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...GOES SOUNDER SATELLITE
INDICATES HIGHER PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES (+2.0 INCHES) ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTH TX MORE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TODAY AND CARRYING INTO THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY DRIER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
FALLING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OR STORM. KEPT 20 POP MENTIONED THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WRT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A GENERALLY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES WARMER WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT/SUGGEST A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE MSA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. INTRODUCED 20 POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOREGOING.
AFTERWARD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PWAT
VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED MONDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE CWA TO REMAIN GENERALLY 105F OR BELOW. AS
THE APPROXIMATELY E-W AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SWD NEAR THE
LATITUDES OF THE CWA/MSA...INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK/MODERATE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CWA/MSA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  74  97  76  96  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          97  75 100  74  98  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           101  78 102  78 103  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             97  75 100  75  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  77  91  79  91  /  20  20  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 102  77 103  /  20  20  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        96  74  98  74  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  77  89  79  90  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 311141
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF ALI/CRP/VCT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OFTEN VARYING BETWEEN A WESTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...GOES SOUNDER SATELLITE
INDICATES HIGHER PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES (+2.0 INCHES) ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTH TX MORE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TODAY AND CARRYING INTO THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY DRIER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
FALLING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OR STORM. KEPT 20 POP MENTIONED THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WRT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A GENERALLY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES WARMER WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT/SUGGEST A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE MSA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. INTRODUCED 20 POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOREGOING.
AFTERWARD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PWAT
VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED MONDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE CWA TO REMAIN GENERALLY 105F OR BELOW. AS
THE APPROXIMATELY E-W AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SWD NEAR THE
LATITUDES OF THE CWA/MSA...INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK/MODERATE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CWA/MSA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  74  97  76  96  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          97  75 100  74  98  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           101  78 102  78 103  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             97  75 100  75  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  77  91  79  91  /  20  20  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 102  77 103  /  20  20  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        96  74  98  74  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  77  89  79  90  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 311141
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF ALI/CRP/VCT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OFTEN VARYING BETWEEN A WESTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...GOES SOUNDER SATELLITE
INDICATES HIGHER PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES (+2.0 INCHES) ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTH TX MORE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TODAY AND CARRYING INTO THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY DRIER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
FALLING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OR STORM. KEPT 20 POP MENTIONED THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WRT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A GENERALLY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES WARMER WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT/SUGGEST A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE MSA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. INTRODUCED 20 POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOREGOING.
AFTERWARD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PWAT
VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED MONDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE CWA TO REMAIN GENERALLY 105F OR BELOW. AS
THE APPROXIMATELY E-W AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SWD NEAR THE
LATITUDES OF THE CWA/MSA...INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK/MODERATE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CWA/MSA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  74  97  76  96  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          97  75 100  74  98  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           101  78 102  78 103  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             97  75 100  75  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  77  91  79  91  /  20  20  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 102  77 103  /  20  20  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        96  74  98  74  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  77  89  79  90  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 311012 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
512 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...GOES SOUNDER SATELLITE
INDICATES HIGHER PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES (+2.0 INCHES) ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTH TX MORE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TODAY AND CARRYING INTO THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY DRIER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
FALLING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OR STORM. KEPT 20 POP MENTIONED THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WRT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A GENERALLY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES WARMER WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT/SUGGEST A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE MSA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. INTRODUCED 20 POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOREGOING.
AFTERWARD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PWAT
VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED MONDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE CWA TO REMAIN GENERALLY 105F OR BELOW. AS
THE APPROXIMATELY E-W AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SWD NEAR THE
LATITUDES OF THE CWA/MSA...INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK/MODERATE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CWA/MSA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  74  97  76  96  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          97  75 100  74  98  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           101  78 102  78 103  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             97  75 100  75  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  77  91  79  91  /  20  20  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 102  77 103  /  20  20  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        96  74  98  74  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  77  89  79  90  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 311012 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
512 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...GOES SOUNDER SATELLITE
INDICATES HIGHER PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES (+2.0 INCHES) ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTH TX MORE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TODAY AND CARRYING INTO THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY DRIER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
FALLING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OR STORM. KEPT 20 POP MENTIONED THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WRT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A GENERALLY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES WARMER WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT/SUGGEST A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE MSA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. INTRODUCED 20 POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOREGOING.
AFTERWARD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PWAT
VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED MONDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE CWA TO REMAIN GENERALLY 105F OR BELOW. AS
THE APPROXIMATELY E-W AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SWD NEAR THE
LATITUDES OF THE CWA/MSA...INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK/MODERATE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CWA/MSA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  74  97  76  96  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          97  75 100  74  98  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           101  78 102  78 103  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             97  75 100  75  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  77  91  79  91  /  20  20  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 102  77 103  /  20  20  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        96  74  98  74  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  77  89  79  90  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 310932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...GOES SOUNDER SATELLITE
INDICATES HIGHER PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES (+2.0 INCHES) ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTH TX MORE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TODAY AND CARRYING INTO THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY DRIER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
FALLING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OR STORM. KEPT 20 POP MENTIONED THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WRT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A GENERALLY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES WARMER WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT/SUGGEST A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE MSA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. INTRODUCED 20 POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOREGOING.
AFTERWARD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PWAT
VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED MONDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE CWA TO REMAIN GENERALLY 105F OR BELOW. AS
THE APPROXIMATELY E-W AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SWD NEAR THE
LATITUDES OF THE CWA/MSA...INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK/MODERATE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CWA/MSA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  74  97  76  96  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          97  75 100  74  98  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           101  78 102  78 103  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             97  75 100  75  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  77  91  79  91  /  20  20  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 102  77 103  /  20  20  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        96  74  98  74  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  77  89  79  90  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
99...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 310932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...GOES SOUNDER SATELLITE
INDICATES HIGHER PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES (+2.0 INCHES) ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTH TX MORE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TODAY AND CARRYING INTO THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY DRIER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
FALLING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OR STORM. KEPT 20 POP MENTIONED THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WRT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A GENERALLY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES WARMER WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT/SUGGEST A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE MSA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. INTRODUCED 20 POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOREGOING.
AFTERWARD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PWAT
VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED MONDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE CWA TO REMAIN GENERALLY 105F OR BELOW. AS
THE APPROXIMATELY E-W AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SWD NEAR THE
LATITUDES OF THE CWA/MSA...INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK/MODERATE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CWA/MSA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  74  97  76  96  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          97  75 100  74  98  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           101  78 102  78 103  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             97  75 100  75  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  77  91  79  91  /  20  20  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 102  77 103  /  20  20  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        96  74  98  74  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  77  89  79  90  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
99...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 310932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...GOES SOUNDER SATELLITE
INDICATES HIGHER PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES (+2.0 INCHES) ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTH TX MORE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TODAY AND CARRYING INTO THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY DRIER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
FALLING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OR STORM. KEPT 20 POP MENTIONED THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WRT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A GENERALLY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES WARMER WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT/SUGGEST A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE MSA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. INTRODUCED 20 POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOREGOING.
AFTERWARD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PWAT
VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED MONDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE CWA TO REMAIN GENERALLY 105F OR BELOW. AS
THE APPROXIMATELY E-W AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SWD NEAR THE
LATITUDES OF THE CWA/MSA...INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK/MODERATE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CWA/MSA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  74  97  76  96  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          97  75 100  74  98  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           101  78 102  78 103  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             97  75 100  75  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  77  91  79  91  /  20  20  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 102  77 103  /  20  20  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        96  74  98  74  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  77  89  79  90  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
99...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 310932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...GOES SOUNDER SATELLITE
INDICATES HIGHER PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES (+2.0 INCHES) ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTH TX MORE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TODAY AND CARRYING INTO THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY DRIER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
FALLING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OR STORM. KEPT 20 POP MENTIONED THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WRT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A GENERALLY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES WARMER WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT/SUGGEST A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE MSA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. INTRODUCED 20 POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOREGOING.
AFTERWARD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PWAT
VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED MONDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE CWA TO REMAIN GENERALLY 105F OR BELOW. AS
THE APPROXIMATELY E-W AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SWD NEAR THE
LATITUDES OF THE CWA/MSA...INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK/MODERATE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CWA/MSA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  74  97  76  96  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          97  75 100  74  98  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           101  78 102  78 103  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             97  75 100  75  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  77  91  79  91  /  20  20  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 102  77 103  /  20  20  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        96  74  98  74  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  77  89  79  90  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
99...LONG TERM





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