Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KCRP 192357 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
657 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. QUICK NOTE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FIRING UP ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE IN MEXICO WITH SLOW MOVEMENT
EASTWARD. CURRENTLY NO STORMS ARE WITHIN RANGE OF LRD. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EVENING...SHOULD SEE STORMS
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF LRD TAFS AS
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS WELL FAR WEST OF THE SITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION AND AMEND SHOULD STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST 10-15KT WIND WILL DECOUPLE LATE THIS
EVENING FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR BKN/OVC EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z FOR LRD-ALI-CRP...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE SHORTLY THEREAFTER
THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z. VCT SHOULD BE A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP
STRATUS. PATCHY FOG IS ONCE MORE POSSIBLE FROM ALI-VCT...WITH
LOWER VISIBILITIES AT VCT DUE TO SLOWER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING...BECOMING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WITH ESE TO SE LOW LEVEL
WINDS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE REGION. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
MEXICO COULD APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE...SO HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS. CAP MAY BE TOUGH TO
OVERCOME TOMORROW BUT WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S OUT
WEST TO LOWER 80S IN THE NORTHEAST. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE
AROUND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN THE 60S
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGD
MON/MON NIGHT BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...KEPT
A SLIGHT CHC ON MON AND SHOWED A DRYING TREND FROM NW TO E MON
NIGHT/TUE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK MODIFYING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO S TX
ON TUE PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE NE CWA AND OVER THE WATERS WITH THE EXITING
UPPER SHORT WAVE. OVERALL...TUE WILL BE GENERALLY WARMER WITH LESS
CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CAA BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT AS IT DISSIPATES TUE
NIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW QUICKLY RETURNING TO THE AREA. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN EXPECTED AND TEMPS REMAINING ABV NORMAL. A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES ARE PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT WITH NO OTHER SUPPORT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...KEPT
SILENT 10 POPS IN PLACE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY
OTHER WEATHER EXPECTED WILL BE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
THROUGH THE WEEK. COULD SEE DENSE FOG MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AHD OF
THE FRONTAL BDRY BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING DENSE FOR NOW THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  65  81  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
VICTORIA          62  80  63  81  63  /  10  20  20  20  20
LAREDO            67  86  69  88  69  /  20  20  10  20  10
ALICE             63  82  65  84  65  /  10  20  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          65  75  67  78  67  /  10  20  20  20  20
COTULLA           64  83  65  86  65  /  20  20  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  66  83  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  74  67  77  68  /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 192037
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
337 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WITH ESE TO SE LOW LEVEL
WINDS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE REGION. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
MEXICO COULD APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE...SO HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS. CAP MAY BE TOUGH TO
OVERCOME TOMORROW BUT WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S OUT
WEST TO LOWER 80S IN THE NORTHEAST. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE
AROUND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN THE 60S
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG-TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGD
MON/MON NIGHT BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...KEPT
A SLIGHT CHC ON MON AND SHOWED A DRYING TREND FROM NW TO E MON
NIGHT/TUE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK MODIFYING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO S TX
ON TUE PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE NE CWA AND OVER THE WATERS WITH THE EXITING
UPPER SHORT WAVE. OVERALL...TUE WILL BE GENERALLY WARMER WITH LESS
CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CAA BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT AS IT DISSIPATES TUE
NIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW QUICKLY RETURNING TO THE AREA. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN EXPECTED AND TEMPS REMAINING ABV NORMAL. A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES ARE PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT WITH NO OTHER SUPPORT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...KEPT
SILENT 10 POPS IN PLACE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY
OTHER WEATHER EXPECTED WILL BE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
THROUGH THE WEEK. COULD SEE DENSE FOG MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AHD OF
THE FRONTAL BDRY BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING DENSE FOR NOW THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  65  81  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
VICTORIA          62  80  63  81  63  /  10  20  20  20  20
LAREDO            67  86  69  88  69  /  20  20  10  20  10
ALICE             63  82  65  84  65  /  10  20  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          65  75  67  78  67  /  10  20  20  20  20
COTULLA           64  83  65  86  65  /  20  20  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  66  83  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  74  67  77  68  /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 191741 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1241 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE TAF CYCLE. ESE TO SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALI AND CRP. BY TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD RETURN
TO THE REGION WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS. SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT ALI/VCT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE ON SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS RETURNING TO OR
REMAINING AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH/EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 181. THE FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WIND SPEED. PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 THIS AFTN AND TNGT. FURTHER...MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY
DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16
DRG THE 09-12Z SUNDAY PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WEAK
RIDGE AXIS/CALM WIND AND NEAR SURFACE MSTR/DRY ALOFT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES)
FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVR THE WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT THEN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 BASED IN
PART ON SREF PROB.

MARINE...ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NRN BAY WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.3" TO 1.5" RANGE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH THE US AND MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE REAR LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A DRYING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A DECAYING
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MAY SEE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  65  81  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
VICTORIA          59  80  62  81  63  /  10  20  20  20  20
LAREDO            67  86  66  87  68  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             63  83  63  84  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          65  75  65  78  67  /  10  20  20  20  20
COTULLA           64  84  63  86  65  /  20  20  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  82  65  83  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  74  66  77  68  /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 191741 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1241 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE TAF CYCLE. ESE TO SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALI AND CRP. BY TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD RETURN
TO THE REGION WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS. SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT ALI/VCT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE ON SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS RETURNING TO OR
REMAINING AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH/EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 181. THE FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WIND SPEED. PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 THIS AFTN AND TNGT. FURTHER...MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY
DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16
DRG THE 09-12Z SUNDAY PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WEAK
RIDGE AXIS/CALM WIND AND NEAR SURFACE MSTR/DRY ALOFT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES)
FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVR THE WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT THEN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 BASED IN
PART ON SREF PROB.

MARINE...ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NRN BAY WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.3" TO 1.5" RANGE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH THE US AND MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE REAR LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A DRYING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A DECAYING
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MAY SEE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  65  81  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
VICTORIA          59  80  62  81  63  /  10  20  20  20  20
LAREDO            67  86  66  87  68  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             63  83  63  84  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          65  75  65  78  67  /  10  20  20  20  20
COTULLA           64  84  63  86  65  /  20  20  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  82  65  83  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  74  66  77  68  /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 191148
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH/EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 181. THE FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WIND SPEED. PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 THIS AFTN AND TNGT. FURTHER...MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY
DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16
DRG THE 09-12Z SUNDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WEAK
RIDGE AXIS/CALM WIND AND NEAR SURFACE MSTR/DRY ALOFT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES)
FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVR THE WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT THEN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 BASED IN
PART ON SREF PROB.

MARINE...ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NRN BAY WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.3" TO 1.5" RANGE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH THE US AND MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE REAR LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A DRYING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A DECAYING
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MAY SEE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  64  79  65  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          81  59  80  62  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
LAREDO            84  67  86  66  87  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  63  83  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  65  75  65  78  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA           84  64  84  63  86  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  64  82  65  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  65  74  66  77  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191148
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH/EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 181. THE FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WIND SPEED. PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 THIS AFTN AND TNGT. FURTHER...MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY
DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16
DRG THE 09-12Z SUNDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WEAK
RIDGE AXIS/CALM WIND AND NEAR SURFACE MSTR/DRY ALOFT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES)
FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVR THE WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT THEN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 BASED IN
PART ON SREF PROB.

MARINE...ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NRN BAY WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.3" TO 1.5" RANGE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH THE US AND MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE REAR LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A DRYING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A DECAYING
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MAY SEE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  64  79  65  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          81  59  80  62  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
LAREDO            84  67  86  66  87  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  63  83  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  65  75  65  78  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA           84  64  84  63  86  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  64  82  65  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  65  74  66  77  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 190854
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WEAK
RIDGE AXIS/CALM WIND AND NEAR SURFACE MSTR/DRY ALOFT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES)
FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVR THE WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT THEN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 BASED IN
PART ON SREF PROB.

&&

.MARINE...ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NRN BAY WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.3" TO 1.5" RANGE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH THE US AND MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE REAR LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A DRYING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A DECAYING
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MAY SEE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  64  79  65  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          81  59  80  62  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
LAREDO            84  67  86  66  87  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  63  83  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  65  75  65  78  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA           84  64  84  63  86  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  64  82  65  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  65  74  66  77  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 190854
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WEAK
RIDGE AXIS/CALM WIND AND NEAR SURFACE MSTR/DRY ALOFT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES)
FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVR THE WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT THEN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 BASED IN
PART ON SREF PROB.

&&

.MARINE...ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NRN BAY WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.3" TO 1.5" RANGE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH THE US AND MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE REAR LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A DRYING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A DECAYING
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MAY SEE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  64  79  65  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          81  59  80  62  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
LAREDO            84  67  86  66  87  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  63  83  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  65  75  65  78  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA           84  64  84  63  86  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  64  82  65  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  65  74  66  77  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 190544
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1244 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN.
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR DRG THE 09-13Z SAT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LGT WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWING BY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MID MORNING/AFTN.
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 DRG THE 00-06Z SUNDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH ISOLD SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW SAT EVENING FOLLOWED
BY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD
GRIDS...MAINLY CLOUDS AND WINDS (GULF WINDS). THIS WAS DONE TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE LATTER FOR CLOUDS.
KEPT PATCHY FOG GOING...AND CURRENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS STILL IN LINE SO NO CHANGE THERE. ONLY UPDATES NEEDED WERE THE
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS. SEE NO NEED TO MAKE LATER PERIOD CHANGES
UNTIL NEW DATA COMES IN...LET THE MID SHIFT HANDLE THAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  65  78  65  81  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          82  61  80  63  81  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            86  68  86  69  87  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             84  64  81  64  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  66  76  65  78  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           86  64  82  64  86  /  20  20  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  65  80  66  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  77  66  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 190544
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1244 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN.
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR DRG THE 09-13Z SAT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LGT WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWING BY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MID MORNING/AFTN.
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 DRG THE 00-06Z SUNDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH ISOLD SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW SAT EVENING FOLLOWED
BY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD
GRIDS...MAINLY CLOUDS AND WINDS (GULF WINDS). THIS WAS DONE TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE LATTER FOR CLOUDS.
KEPT PATCHY FOG GOING...AND CURRENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS STILL IN LINE SO NO CHANGE THERE. ONLY UPDATES NEEDED WERE THE
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS. SEE NO NEED TO MAKE LATER PERIOD CHANGES
UNTIL NEW DATA COMES IN...LET THE MID SHIFT HANDLE THAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  65  78  65  81  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          82  61  80  63  81  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            86  68  86  69  87  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             84  64  81  64  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  66  76  65  78  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           86  64  82  64  86  /  20  20  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  65  80  66  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  77  66  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 190210 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
910 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD
GRIDS...MAINLY CLOUDS AND WINDS (GULF WINDS). THIS WAS DONE TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE LATTER FOR CLOUDS.
KEPT PATCHY FOG GOING...AND CURRENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS STILL IN LINE SO NO CHANGE THERE. ONLY UPDATES NEEDED WERE THE
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS. SEE NO NEED TO MAKE LATER PERIOD CHANGES
UNTIL NEW DATA COMES IN...LET THE MID SHIFT HANDLE THAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 190210 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
910 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD
GRIDS...MAINLY CLOUDS AND WINDS (GULF WINDS). THIS WAS DONE TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE LATTER FOR CLOUDS.
KEPT PATCHY FOG GOING...AND CURRENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS STILL IN LINE SO NO CHANGE THERE. ONLY UPDATES NEEDED WERE THE
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS. SEE NO NEED TO MAKE LATER PERIOD CHANGES
UNTIL NEW DATA COMES IN...LET THE MID SHIFT HANDLE THAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 182357 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 182357 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 182041
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 182041
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 181741 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1241 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ALI/VCT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY
MAKE INTO LRD LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. CRP SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK AND HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  81  65  80  68  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          57  82  63  81  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  66  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             59  84  64  82  66  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          64  76  66  80  67  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           59  86  63  84  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  82  67  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  78  68  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION









000
FXUS64 KCRP 181741 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1241 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ALI/VCT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY
MAKE INTO LRD LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. CRP SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK AND HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  81  65  80  68  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          57  82  63  81  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  66  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             59  84  64  82  66  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          64  76  66  80  67  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           59  86  63  84  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  82  67  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  78  68  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 181616 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1116 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK AND HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 181616 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1116 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK AND HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 181137
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 181137
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 180907
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 180907
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 180550
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM MIST/LGT RAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 181 UNTIL AROUND 09Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY
LGT NORTHEAST SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SPEEDS BY
LATE MORNING. MAINLY LGT/MODERATE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...HAVE REWORDED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MORE
IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THAN SHOWERS...AND TO CONTINUE
MENTION PAST MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM SFC TO H75
WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO H85...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  78  66  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          80  58  79  63  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            84  66  86  68  88  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             81  61  81  65  83  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          77  64  75  66  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           82  60  82  64  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        81  62  80  66  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  65  76  67  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 180550
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM MIST/LGT RAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 181 UNTIL AROUND 09Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY
LGT NORTHEAST SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SPEEDS BY
LATE MORNING. MAINLY LGT/MODERATE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...HAVE REWORDED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MORE
IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THAN SHOWERS...AND TO CONTINUE
MENTION PAST MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM SFC TO H75
WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO H85...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  78  66  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          80  58  79  63  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            84  66  86  68  88  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             81  61  81  65  83  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          77  64  75  66  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           82  60  82  64  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        81  62  80  66  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  65  76  67  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 180114 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
814 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE REWORDED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MORE
IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THAN SHOWERS...AND TO CONTINUE
MENTION PAST MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM SFC TO H75
WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO H85...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 180114 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
814 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE REWORDED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MORE
IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THAN SHOWERS...AND TO CONTINUE
MENTION PAST MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM SFC TO H75
WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO H85...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 172315 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
615 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO LIFR TONIGHT ALL
TERMINALS...AS EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES (BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR AT
KLRD). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS A
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN
15Z-18Z (POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT EARLIER)...AND THEN VFR STARTING AT
KVCT ABOUT 18Z (CLOSER TO THE DRIEST AIR)...THEN 20Z-22Z REMAINDER
OF TERMINALS. FRIDAY MORNING WINDS INITIALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST
GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EVEN SOUTHEAST
AT KLRD BY THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST. FINALLY AM GOING TO
KEEP/PUT IN SOME FOG IN TERMINALS...NEAR MVFR AT KCRP AND
KLRD...MVFR AT KALI...AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KVCT GENERALLY BETWEEN
06Z AND 15Z (EVEN EARLIER AT KVCT). ONLY PRECIPITATION IN THE
TAF FORECAST IS THIS EVENING (VCSH) AT EASTERN TERMINALS...AS
RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME VERY WEAK ECHOES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK SFC COOL FRONT TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE OVERCAST SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS RETURN FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCES INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALONG SHORE (ENE) WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION. SCEC CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
WATERS THIS EVENING. MODERATE NE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE
RELAXING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS ALLOWING
FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. KEPT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UPPER TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE VICTORIA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW AS SOME DISCREPANCIES ARISE REGARDING STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF
UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 171946
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
246 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK SFC COOL FRONT TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE OVERCAST SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS RETURN FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCES INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALONG SHORE (ENE) WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION. SCEC CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
WATERS THIS EVENING. MODERATE NE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE
RELAXING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS ALLOWING
FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. KEPT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UPPER TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE VICTORIA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW AS SOME DISCREPANCIES ARISE REGARDING STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF
UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 171946
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
246 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK SFC COOL FRONT TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE OVERCAST SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS RETURN FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCES INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALONG SHORE (ENE) WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION. SCEC CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
WATERS THIS EVENING. MODERATE NE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE
RELAXING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS ALLOWING
FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. KEPT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UPPER TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE VICTORIA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW AS SOME DISCREPANCIES ARISE REGARDING STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF
UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 171753
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS WILL START THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PRESENT...CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM IFR-MVFR
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR AT MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR TONIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SH/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP FRI
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. THE INITIAL WAVE OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ENDED AS LEADING S/W MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE MAIN TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PRESENTING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SH/TSRA. LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE AREA... MADE EVIDENT
BY THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE MID COAST. THE
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. TRIMMED
MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY PRIMIARLY OVER THE AREAS
IMPACTED BY DRIZZLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE MID WEST TOWARD
THE GULF COAST AND ENCOUNTERS LOWER PRESSURES IN THE GULF. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. ZONE UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  82  64  79  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          61  81  59  80  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            62  85  67  87  70  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             64  83  62  82  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  79  65  76  68  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  84  61  83  65  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        65  83  63  81  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  78  66  77  68  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 171753
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS WILL START THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PRESENT...CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM IFR-MVFR
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR AT MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR TONIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SH/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP FRI
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. THE INITIAL WAVE OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ENDED AS LEADING S/W MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE MAIN TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PRESENTING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SH/TSRA. LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE AREA... MADE EVIDENT
BY THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE MID COAST. THE
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. TRIMMED
MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY PRIMIARLY OVER THE AREAS
IMPACTED BY DRIZZLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE MID WEST TOWARD
THE GULF COAST AND ENCOUNTERS LOWER PRESSURES IN THE GULF. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. ZONE UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  82  64  79  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          61  81  59  80  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            62  85  67  87  70  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             64  83  62  82  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  79  65  76  68  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  84  61  83  65  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        65  83  63  81  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  78  66  77  68  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 171708
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1208 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. THE INITIAL WAVE OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ENDED AS LEADING S/W MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE MAIN TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PRESENTING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SH/TSRA. LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE AREA... MADE EVIDENT
BY THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE MID COAST. THE
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. TRIMMED
MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY PRIMIARLY OVER THE AREAS
IMPACTED BY DRIZZLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE MID WEST TOWARD
THE GULF COAST AND ENCOUNTERS LOWER PRESSURES IN THE GULF. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. ZONE UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  82  64  79  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          61  81  59  80  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            62  85  67  87  70  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             64  83  62  82  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  79  65  76  68  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  84  61  83  65  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        65  83  63  81  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  78  66  77  68  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 171132
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
632 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR SEVERAL
MORE. REGARDLESS...AM EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO FINALLY
MATERIALIZE AND HOLD AT ALL TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.
HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS AT KALI KCRP AND KVCT
THROUGH 03Z...AFTER WHICH RAIN CHANCES WILL END DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT AM EXPECTING THE CLOUD
DECK TO TRANSITION FROM OVERCAST TO BROKEN DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED AS A RESULT OF A STRONG CAP
IN THE LOW LEVELS. ABOVE THE CAP...SHEAR IS LIMITED...BUT DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 300K LAYER AND 500 MB PVA WILL BE THE
MAIN SOURCE OF FORCING. RIDGING AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY ENDING RAIN POPS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EASTNORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD BEHIND A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE GONE A LITTLE
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY
TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE COASTAL BEND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES.
BUT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA/NORTHWEST MEXICO
12Z SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE SATURDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE NORTH THAT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THE
WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS MONDAY. THEN A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND AIR MASS
BECOMES QUITE A BIT DRIER. WARM TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  64  82  64  79  /  30  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  61  81  59  80  /  30  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            83  62  85  67  87  /  20  10  10  20  20
ALICE             79  64  83  62  82  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  64  79  65  76  /  30  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           79  62  84  61  83  /  20  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        79  65  83  63  81  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  65  78  66  77  /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 171132
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
632 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR SEVERAL
MORE. REGARDLESS...AM EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO FINALLY
MATERIALIZE AND HOLD AT ALL TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.
HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS AT KALI KCRP AND KVCT
THROUGH 03Z...AFTER WHICH RAIN CHANCES WILL END DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT AM EXPECTING THE CLOUD
DECK TO TRANSITION FROM OVERCAST TO BROKEN DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED AS A RESULT OF A STRONG CAP
IN THE LOW LEVELS. ABOVE THE CAP...SHEAR IS LIMITED...BUT DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 300K LAYER AND 500 MB PVA WILL BE THE
MAIN SOURCE OF FORCING. RIDGING AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY ENDING RAIN POPS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EASTNORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD BEHIND A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE GONE A LITTLE
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY
TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE COASTAL BEND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES.
BUT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA/NORTHWEST MEXICO
12Z SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE SATURDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE NORTH THAT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THE
WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS MONDAY. THEN A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND AIR MASS
BECOMES QUITE A BIT DRIER. WARM TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  64  82  64  79  /  30  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  61  81  59  80  /  30  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            83  62  85  67  87  /  20  10  10  20  20
ALICE             79  64  83  62  82  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  64  79  65  76  /  30  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           79  62  84  61  83  /  20  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        79  65  83  63  81  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  65  78  66  77  /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 170916
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
416 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED AS A RESULT OF A STRONG CAP
IN THE LOW LEVELS. ABOVE THE CAP...SHEAR IS LIMITED...BUT DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 300K LAYER AND 500 MB PVA WILL BE THE
MAIN SOURCE OF FORCING. RIDGING AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY ENDING RAIN POPS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EASTNORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD BEHIND A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE GONE A LITTLE
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY
TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE COASTAL BEND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES.
BUT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA/NORTHWEST MEXICO
12Z SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE SATURDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE NORTH THAT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THE
WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS MONDAY. THEN A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND AIR MASS
BECOMES QUITE A BIT DRIER. WARM TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  64  82  64  79  /  30  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  61  81  59  80  /  30  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            83  62  85  67  87  /  20  10  10  20  20
ALICE             79  64  83  62  82  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  64  79  65  76  /  30  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           79  62  84  61  83  /  20  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        79  65  83  63  81  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  65  78  66  77  /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...SHORT TERM
TT/89...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 170916
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
416 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED AS A RESULT OF A STRONG CAP
IN THE LOW LEVELS. ABOVE THE CAP...SHEAR IS LIMITED...BUT DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 300K LAYER AND 500 MB PVA WILL BE THE
MAIN SOURCE OF FORCING. RIDGING AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY ENDING RAIN POPS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EASTNORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD BEHIND A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE GONE A LITTLE
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY
TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE COASTAL BEND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES.
BUT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA/NORTHWEST MEXICO
12Z SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE SATURDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE NORTH THAT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THE
WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS MONDAY. THEN A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND AIR MASS
BECOMES QUITE A BIT DRIER. WARM TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  64  82  64  79  /  30  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  61  81  59  80  /  30  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            83  62  85  67  87  /  20  10  10  20  20
ALICE             79  64  83  62  82  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  64  79  65  76  /  30  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           79  62  84  61  83  /  20  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        79  65  83  63  81  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  65  78  66  77  /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...SHORT TERM
TT/89...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 170538
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KLRD DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY STRONG LLJ OFF THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLOUD UP TO MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND REMAIN MVFR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT KALI KCRP AND KVCT. KLRD SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR CEILINGS BY THE AFTERNOON. FOG IS A POSSIBILITY IF ENOUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN TERMINALS STARTING AFTER SUNRISE AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY
NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF VICINITY
SHOWERS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO STALL OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR BY 06Z
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SENT A SECOND UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING FROM
FORECAST. ISO CONVECTION THAT IMPACTED FAR NW WEBB COUNTY HAS
DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REST OF FORECAST IS
CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  65  78  67  79  /  20  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          76  60  78  62  80  /  20  20  10  10  20
LAREDO            85  67  87  69  87  /  10  20  10  20  20
ALICE             80  64  80  66  83  /  20  20  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          75  66  76  67  76  /  20  20  10  10  20
COTULLA           80  63  83  64  83  /  10  20  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        79  66  79  67  82  /  20  20  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  67  76  69  77  /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 170243 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
943 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SENT A SECOND UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING FROM
FORECAST. ISO CONVECTION THAT IMPACTED FAR NW WEBB COUNTY HAS
DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REST OF FORECAST IS
CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  78  65  78  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          58  76  60  78  62  /  10  20  20  10  10
LAREDO            62  85  67  87  69  /  10  10  20  10  20
ALICE             59  80  64  80  66  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          63  75  66  76  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  80  63  83  64  /  10  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  79  66  79  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       64  76  67  76  69  /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities