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000
FXUS64 KCRP 291120 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...LOW VSBY IS BEING REPORTED AT THE ALI TAF
SITE...BUT THIS IS LIKELY VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS NO OTHER
SITES ARE REPORTING ANY FOG AT THIS TIME. AM EXPECTING VSBY`S TO
INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. BY MID MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...MAINLY FOR
ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 291120 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...LOW VSBY IS BEING REPORTED AT THE ALI TAF
SITE...BUT THIS IS LIKELY VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS NO OTHER
SITES ARE REPORTING ANY FOG AT THIS TIME. AM EXPECTING VSBY`S TO
INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. BY MID MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...MAINLY FOR
ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 291120 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...LOW VSBY IS BEING REPORTED AT THE ALI TAF
SITE...BUT THIS IS LIKELY VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS NO OTHER
SITES ARE REPORTING ANY FOG AT THIS TIME. AM EXPECTING VSBY`S TO
INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. BY MID MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...MAINLY FOR
ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 291120 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...LOW VSBY IS BEING REPORTED AT THE ALI TAF
SITE...BUT THIS IS LIKELY VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS NO OTHER
SITES ARE REPORTING ANY FOG AT THIS TIME. AM EXPECTING VSBY`S TO
INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. BY MID MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...MAINLY FOR
ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 291114
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. BY MID MORNING...THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG
GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN 3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING...MAINLY FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 291114
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. BY MID MORNING...THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG
GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN 3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING...MAINLY FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 291114
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. BY MID MORNING...THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG
GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN 3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING...MAINLY FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 290922
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290922
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290922
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 290506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DVLPG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  83  68  80  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
VICTORIA          64  82  65  81  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
LAREDO            65  89  69  83  65  /   0   0  10  40  40
ALICE             65  86  67  82  67  /  10  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  80  68  79  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
COTULLA           64  87  66  81  64  /   0   0  10  40  50
KINGSVILLE        66  85  68  82  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       68  80  69  78  66  /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 290506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DVLPG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  83  68  80  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
VICTORIA          64  82  65  81  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
LAREDO            65  89  69  83  65  /   0   0  10  40  40
ALICE             65  86  67  82  67  /  10  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  80  68  79  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
COTULLA           64  87  66  81  64  /   0   0  10  40  50
KINGSVILLE        66  85  68  82  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       68  80  69  78  66  /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DVLPG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  83  68  80  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
VICTORIA          64  82  65  81  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
LAREDO            65  89  69  83  65  /   0   0  10  40  40
ALICE             65  86  67  82  67  /  10  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  80  68  79  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
COTULLA           64  87  66  81  64  /   0   0  10  40  50
KINGSVILLE        66  85  68  82  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       68  80  69  78  66  /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DVLPG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  83  68  80  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
VICTORIA          64  82  65  81  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
LAREDO            65  89  69  83  65  /   0   0  10  40  40
ALICE             65  86  67  82  67  /  10  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  80  68  79  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
COTULLA           64  87  66  81  64  /   0   0  10  40  50
KINGSVILLE        66  85  68  82  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       68  80  69  78  66  /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 282337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 282337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 282337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 282337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 282006
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 282006
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM









000
FXUS64 KCRP 282006
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 282006
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM









000
FXUS64 KCRP 281710 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KT EXPECTED...THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS RESIDING ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND FROM CRP-ALI. DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE THIS
EVENING...WITH A 5-10 KT S-LY FLOW OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE WINDS DROP
FURTHER AT ALI-VCT TO SEE LIGHT FOG BUT MAINTAIN VFR STATUS...AND
EVEN POSSIBLY BRIEFLY AT LRD RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. MORNING
CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BREAKING UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. A
MUCH WINDIER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...PEAKING MORE JUST
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS A BIT MORE INLAND THIS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH
VWP SHOWING 30KT WIND OFF THE SURFACE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281710 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KT EXPECTED...THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS RESIDING ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND FROM CRP-ALI. DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE THIS
EVENING...WITH A 5-10 KT S-LY FLOW OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE WINDS DROP
FURTHER AT ALI-VCT TO SEE LIGHT FOG BUT MAINTAIN VFR STATUS...AND
EVEN POSSIBLY BRIEFLY AT LRD RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. MORNING
CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BREAKING UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. A
MUCH WINDIER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...PEAKING MORE JUST
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS A BIT MORE INLAND THIS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH
VWP SHOWING 30KT WIND OFF THE SURFACE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 281710 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KT EXPECTED...THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS RESIDING ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND FROM CRP-ALI. DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE THIS
EVENING...WITH A 5-10 KT S-LY FLOW OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE WINDS DROP
FURTHER AT ALI-VCT TO SEE LIGHT FOG BUT MAINTAIN VFR STATUS...AND
EVEN POSSIBLY BRIEFLY AT LRD RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. MORNING
CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BREAKING UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. A
MUCH WINDIER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...PEAKING MORE JUST
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS A BIT MORE INLAND THIS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH
VWP SHOWING 30KT WIND OFF THE SURFACE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 281541 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS A BIT MORE INLAND THIS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH
VWP SHOWING 30KT WIND OFF THE SURFACE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281541 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS A BIT MORE INLAND THIS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH
VWP SHOWING 30KT WIND OFF THE SURFACE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 281541 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS A BIT MORE INLAND THIS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH
VWP SHOWING 30KT WIND OFF THE SURFACE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 281541 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS A BIT MORE INLAND THIS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH
VWP SHOWING 30KT WIND OFF THE SURFACE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281101
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281101
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281101
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 280905
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 280905
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 280519
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1219 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE A TAD HIGHER ALONG
THE COAST AND GROUND FOG/SHALLOW FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND. MODELS PROG SFC
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
FUTURE UPDATES TO INCLUDE BR. FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY...WITH A MORE
SSW COMPONENT THROUGH SAT MORNING BECOMING MORE SSE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING SAT EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST HAS SLOWLY BEGUN MOVING
MORE SURFACE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DEEPENS AND MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  80  62  84  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          48  80  57  83  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            53  86  60  90  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  85  57  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  74  66  79  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           48  85  56  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        49  83  60  86  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  76  65  79  68  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 280519
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1219 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE A TAD HIGHER ALONG
THE COAST AND GROUND FOG/SHALLOW FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND. MODELS PROG SFC
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
FUTURE UPDATES TO INCLUDE BR. FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY...WITH A MORE
SSW COMPONENT THROUGH SAT MORNING BECOMING MORE SSE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING SAT EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST HAS SLOWLY BEGUN MOVING
MORE SURFACE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DEEPENS AND MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  80  62  84  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          48  80  57  83  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            53  86  60  90  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  85  57  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  74  66  79  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           48  85  56  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        49  83  60  86  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  76  65  79  68  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 280519
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1219 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE A TAD HIGHER ALONG
THE COAST AND GROUND FOG/SHALLOW FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND. MODELS PROG SFC
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
FUTURE UPDATES TO INCLUDE BR. FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY...WITH A MORE
SSW COMPONENT THROUGH SAT MORNING BECOMING MORE SSE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING SAT EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST HAS SLOWLY BEGUN MOVING
MORE SURFACE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DEEPENS AND MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  80  62  84  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          48  80  57  83  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            53  86  60  90  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  85  57  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  74  66  79  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           48  85  56  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        49  83  60  86  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  76  65  79  68  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 280519
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1219 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE A TAD HIGHER ALONG
THE COAST AND GROUND FOG/SHALLOW FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND. MODELS PROG SFC
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
FUTURE UPDATES TO INCLUDE BR. FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY...WITH A MORE
SSW COMPONENT THROUGH SAT MORNING BECOMING MORE SSE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING SAT EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST HAS SLOWLY BEGUN MOVING
MORE SURFACE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DEEPENS AND MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  80  62  84  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          48  80  57  83  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            53  86  60  90  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  85  57  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  74  66  79  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           48  85  56  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        49  83  60  86  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  76  65  79  68  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 280309
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1009 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST HAS SLOWLY BEGUN MOVING
MORE SURFACE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DEEPENS AND MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  80  62  84  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          48  80  57  83  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            53  86  60  90  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  85  57  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  74  66  79  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           48  85  56  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        49  83  60  86  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  76  65  79  68  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 280309
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1009 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST HAS SLOWLY BEGUN MOVING
MORE SURFACE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DEEPENS AND MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  80  62  84  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          48  80  57  83  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            53  86  60  90  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  85  57  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  74  66  79  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           48  85  56  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        49  83  60  86  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  76  65  79  68  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 272321 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
621 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING BY 15-16Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COOL NIGHTS AND
PLEASANT DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...WITH A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER ON
SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH WARM H85 TEMPS MIXING
TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS BEING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOW 50S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY
RETURNS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO COME
ACROSS AND IMPACT THE AREA. WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEFORE
TUESDAY (INCLUDING MONDAY NIGHT)...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE IS GETTING MORE CLEAR (AT LEAST THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER). THUS...THINK BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION (INCLUDING THUNDER) WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO
BEFORE GOING WITH BEING MORE PRECISE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE CONTINUED CONSISTENCY (GFS IS A BIT FASTER AND
ECMWF A BIT SLOWER). ALL MODELS HAVE NEARLY ALL OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY (EXTREME NORTHEAST AND
GULFMEX MAY HAVE SOME UPPER SUPPORT) SO THINK CONVECTION WILL BE
DONE WITH...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY AND PWATS LESS
THAN 1 (NO RAIN). MAY BE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON FRIDAY...WITH
GFS WETTER AND BRINGING A FRONT EARLY...AND ECMWF DRIER AND
BRINGING  THE BOUNDARY LATER. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AND DELAY
FRONT SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL GO A BIT LOWER THAN THURSDAY`S
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 2 METER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. OTHERWISE...
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD
(WED-THU) AND A BIT TOO COLD EARLY FOR LOWS (MON-TUE). HOWEVER...
SUPERBLEND LOOKS A BIT TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. ALL IS BASED ON 850MB
(VERY WARM THURSDAY) AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES.  CONSEQUENTLY...AM
GOING A FEW DEGREES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE NUMBERS...WHICH STILL IS
WITHIN ISC COLLABORATION STANDARDS. WITH FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES ON
FRIDAY...WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM SUPERBLEND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  80  62  84  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          48  80  57  83  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            53  86  60  90  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  85  57  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  74  66  79  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           48  85  56  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        49  83  60  86  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  76  65  79  68  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 272321 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
621 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING BY 15-16Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COOL NIGHTS AND
PLEASANT DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...WITH A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER ON
SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH WARM H85 TEMPS MIXING
TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS BEING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOW 50S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY
RETURNS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO COME
ACROSS AND IMPACT THE AREA. WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEFORE
TUESDAY (INCLUDING MONDAY NIGHT)...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE IS GETTING MORE CLEAR (AT LEAST THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER). THUS...THINK BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION (INCLUDING THUNDER) WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO
BEFORE GOING WITH BEING MORE PRECISE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE CONTINUED CONSISTENCY (GFS IS A BIT FASTER AND
ECMWF A BIT SLOWER). ALL MODELS HAVE NEARLY ALL OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY (EXTREME NORTHEAST AND
GULFMEX MAY HAVE SOME UPPER SUPPORT) SO THINK CONVECTION WILL BE
DONE WITH...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY AND PWATS LESS
THAN 1 (NO RAIN). MAY BE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON FRIDAY...WITH
GFS WETTER AND BRINGING A FRONT EARLY...AND ECMWF DRIER AND
BRINGING  THE BOUNDARY LATER. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AND DELAY
FRONT SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL GO A BIT LOWER THAN THURSDAY`S
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 2 METER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. OTHERWISE...
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD
(WED-THU) AND A BIT TOO COLD EARLY FOR LOWS (MON-TUE). HOWEVER...
SUPERBLEND LOOKS A BIT TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. ALL IS BASED ON 850MB
(VERY WARM THURSDAY) AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES.  CONSEQUENTLY...AM
GOING A FEW DEGREES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE NUMBERS...WHICH STILL IS
WITHIN ISC COLLABORATION STANDARDS. WITH FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES ON
FRIDAY...WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM SUPERBLEND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  80  62  84  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          48  80  57  83  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            53  86  60  90  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  85  57  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  74  66  79  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           48  85  56  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        49  83  60  86  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  76  65  79  68  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 272321 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
621 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING BY 15-16Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COOL NIGHTS AND
PLEASANT DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...WITH A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER ON
SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH WARM H85 TEMPS MIXING
TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS BEING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOW 50S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY
RETURNS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO COME
ACROSS AND IMPACT THE AREA. WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEFORE
TUESDAY (INCLUDING MONDAY NIGHT)...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE IS GETTING MORE CLEAR (AT LEAST THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER). THUS...THINK BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION (INCLUDING THUNDER) WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO
BEFORE GOING WITH BEING MORE PRECISE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE CONTINUED CONSISTENCY (GFS IS A BIT FASTER AND
ECMWF A BIT SLOWER). ALL MODELS HAVE NEARLY ALL OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY (EXTREME NORTHEAST AND
GULFMEX MAY HAVE SOME UPPER SUPPORT) SO THINK CONVECTION WILL BE
DONE WITH...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY AND PWATS LESS
THAN 1 (NO RAIN). MAY BE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON FRIDAY...WITH
GFS WETTER AND BRINGING A FRONT EARLY...AND ECMWF DRIER AND
BRINGING  THE BOUNDARY LATER. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AND DELAY
FRONT SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL GO A BIT LOWER THAN THURSDAY`S
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 2 METER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. OTHERWISE...
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD
(WED-THU) AND A BIT TOO COLD EARLY FOR LOWS (MON-TUE). HOWEVER...
SUPERBLEND LOOKS A BIT TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. ALL IS BASED ON 850MB
(VERY WARM THURSDAY) AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES.  CONSEQUENTLY...AM
GOING A FEW DEGREES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE NUMBERS...WHICH STILL IS
WITHIN ISC COLLABORATION STANDARDS. WITH FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES ON
FRIDAY...WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM SUPERBLEND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  80  62  84  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          48  80  57  83  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            53  86  60  90  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  85  57  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  74  66  79  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           48  85  56  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        49  83  60  86  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  76  65  79  68  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 272321 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
621 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING BY 15-16Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COOL NIGHTS AND
PLEASANT DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...WITH A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER ON
SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH WARM H85 TEMPS MIXING
TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS BEING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOW 50S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY
RETURNS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO COME
ACROSS AND IMPACT THE AREA. WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEFORE
TUESDAY (INCLUDING MONDAY NIGHT)...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE IS GETTING MORE CLEAR (AT LEAST THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER). THUS...THINK BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION (INCLUDING THUNDER) WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO
BEFORE GOING WITH BEING MORE PRECISE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE CONTINUED CONSISTENCY (GFS IS A BIT FASTER AND
ECMWF A BIT SLOWER). ALL MODELS HAVE NEARLY ALL OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY (EXTREME NORTHEAST AND
GULFMEX MAY HAVE SOME UPPER SUPPORT) SO THINK CONVECTION WILL BE
DONE WITH...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY AND PWATS LESS
THAN 1 (NO RAIN). MAY BE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON FRIDAY...WITH
GFS WETTER AND BRINGING A FRONT EARLY...AND ECMWF DRIER AND
BRINGING  THE BOUNDARY LATER. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AND DELAY
FRONT SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL GO A BIT LOWER THAN THURSDAY`S
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 2 METER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. OTHERWISE...
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD
(WED-THU) AND A BIT TOO COLD EARLY FOR LOWS (MON-TUE). HOWEVER...
SUPERBLEND LOOKS A BIT TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. ALL IS BASED ON 850MB
(VERY WARM THURSDAY) AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES.  CONSEQUENTLY...AM
GOING A FEW DEGREES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE NUMBERS...WHICH STILL IS
WITHIN ISC COLLABORATION STANDARDS. WITH FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES ON
FRIDAY...WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM SUPERBLEND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  80  62  84  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          48  80  57  83  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            53  86  60  90  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  85  57  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  74  66  79  67  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           48  85  56  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        49  83  60  86  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  76  65  79  68  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 272017
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
317 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COOL NIGHTS AND
PLEASANT DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...WITH A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER ON
SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH WARM H85 TEMPS MIXING
TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS BEING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOW 50S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY
RETURNS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO COME
ACROSS AND IMPACT THE AREA. WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEFORE
TUESDAY (INCLUDING MONDAY NIGHT)...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE IS GETTING MORE CLEAR (AT LEAST THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER). THUS...THINK BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION (INCLUDING THUNDER) WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO
BEFORE GOING WITH BEING MORE PRECISE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE CONTINUED CONSISTENCY (GFS IS A BIT FASTER AND
ECMWF A BIT SLOWER). ALL MODELS HAVE NEARLY ALL OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY (EXTREME NORTHEAST AND
GULFMEX MAY HAVE SOME UPPER SUPPORT) SO THINK CONVECTION WILL BE
DONE WITH...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY AND PWATS LESS
THAN 1 (NO RAIN). MAY BE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON FRIDAY...WITH
GFS WETTER AND BRINGING A FRONT EARLY...AND ECMWF DRIER AND
BRINGING  THE BOUNDARY LATER. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AND DELAY
FRONT SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL GO A BIT LOWER THAN THURSDAY`S
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 2 METER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. OTHERWISE...
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD
(WED-THU) AND A BIT TOO COLD EARLY FOR LOWS (MON-TUE). HOWEVER...
SUPERBLEND LOOKS A BIT TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. ALL IS BASED ON 850MB
(VERY WARM THURSDAY) AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES.  CONSEQUENTLY...AM
GOING A FEW DEGREES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE NUMBERS...WHICH STILL IS
WITHIN ISC COLLABORATION STANDARDS. WITH FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES ON
FRIDAY...WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM SUPERBLEND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  51  80  62  84  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  48  80  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  53  86  60  90  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  48  85  57  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  57  74  66  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  48  85  56  88  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  49  83  60  86  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  56  76  65  79  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 272017
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
317 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COOL NIGHTS AND
PLEASANT DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...WITH A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER ON
SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH WARM H85 TEMPS MIXING
TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS BEING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOW 50S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY
RETURNS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO COME
ACROSS AND IMPACT THE AREA. WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEFORE
TUESDAY (INCLUDING MONDAY NIGHT)...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE IS GETTING MORE CLEAR (AT LEAST THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER). THUS...THINK BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION (INCLUDING THUNDER) WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO
BEFORE GOING WITH BEING MORE PRECISE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE CONTINUED CONSISTENCY (GFS IS A BIT FASTER AND
ECMWF A BIT SLOWER). ALL MODELS HAVE NEARLY ALL OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY (EXTREME NORTHEAST AND
GULFMEX MAY HAVE SOME UPPER SUPPORT) SO THINK CONVECTION WILL BE
DONE WITH...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY AND PWATS LESS
THAN 1 (NO RAIN). MAY BE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON FRIDAY...WITH
GFS WETTER AND BRINGING A FRONT EARLY...AND ECMWF DRIER AND
BRINGING  THE BOUNDARY LATER. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AND DELAY
FRONT SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL GO A BIT LOWER THAN THURSDAY`S
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 2 METER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. OTHERWISE...
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD
(WED-THU) AND A BIT TOO COLD EARLY FOR LOWS (MON-TUE). HOWEVER...
SUPERBLEND LOOKS A BIT TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. ALL IS BASED ON 850MB
(VERY WARM THURSDAY) AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES.  CONSEQUENTLY...AM
GOING A FEW DEGREES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE NUMBERS...WHICH STILL IS
WITHIN ISC COLLABORATION STANDARDS. WITH FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES ON
FRIDAY...WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM SUPERBLEND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  51  80  62  84  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  48  80  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  53  86  60  90  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  48  85  57  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  57  74  66  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  48  85  56  88  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  49  83  60  86  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  56  76  65  79  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271701 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1201 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED WINDS SLIGHTLY TO
SHOW LIGHTER WINDS.

ALSO...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE N-NW WIND WILL BECOME S-LY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MID MORNING SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OFFSHORE BUT MOSTLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...THEN BECOMING
SLY TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CLEAR AND QUIET WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRE BY 5 AM CDT. THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E
TONIGHT/SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TO
WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON SAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVING FIRST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER IN
LATER FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WETTER SOLUTION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  54  80  61  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  49  79  58  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  54  86  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  50  83  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  56  76  64  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  51  84  56  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  51  82  59  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  58  75  64  78  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 271701 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1201 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED WINDS SLIGHTLY TO
SHOW LIGHTER WINDS.

ALSO...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE N-NW WIND WILL BECOME S-LY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MID MORNING SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OFFSHORE BUT MOSTLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...THEN BECOMING
SLY TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CLEAR AND QUIET WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRE BY 5 AM CDT. THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E
TONIGHT/SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TO
WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON SAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVING FIRST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER IN
LATER FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WETTER SOLUTION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  54  80  61  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  49  79  58  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  54  86  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  50  83  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  56  76  64  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  51  84  56  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  51  82  59  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  58  75  64  78  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271701 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1201 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED WINDS SLIGHTLY TO
SHOW LIGHTER WINDS.

ALSO...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE N-NW WIND WILL BECOME S-LY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MID MORNING SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OFFSHORE BUT MOSTLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...THEN BECOMING
SLY TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CLEAR AND QUIET WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRE BY 5 AM CDT. THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E
TONIGHT/SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TO
WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON SAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVING FIRST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER IN
LATER FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WETTER SOLUTION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  54  80  61  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  49  79  58  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  54  86  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  50  83  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  56  76  64  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  51  84  56  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  51  82  59  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  58  75  64  78  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271701 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1201 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED WINDS SLIGHTLY TO
SHOW LIGHTER WINDS.

ALSO...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE N-NW WIND WILL BECOME S-LY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MID MORNING SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OFFSHORE BUT MOSTLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...THEN BECOMING
SLY TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CLEAR AND QUIET WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRE BY 5 AM CDT. THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E
TONIGHT/SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TO
WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON SAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVING FIRST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER IN
LATER FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WETTER SOLUTION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  54  80  61  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  49  79  58  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  54  86  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  50  83  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  56  76  64  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  51  84  56  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  51  82  59  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  58  75  64  78  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 271107
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
607 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OFFSHORE BUT MOSTLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...THEN BECOMING
SLY TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CLEAR AND QUIET WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRE BY 5 AM CDT. THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E
TONIGHT/SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TO
WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON SAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVING FIRST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER IN
LATER FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WETTER SOLUTION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  54  80  61  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  49  79  58  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  54  86  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  50  83  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  56  76  64  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  51  84  56  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  51  82  59  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  58  75  64  78  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271107
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
607 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OFFSHORE BUT MOSTLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...THEN BECOMING
SLY TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CLEAR AND QUIET WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRE BY 5 AM CDT. THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E
TONIGHT/SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TO
WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON SAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVING FIRST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER IN
LATER FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WETTER SOLUTION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  54  80  61  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  49  79  58  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  54  86  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  50  83  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  56  76  64  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  51  84  56  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  51  82  59  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  58  75  64  78  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 271107
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
607 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OFFSHORE BUT MOSTLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...THEN BECOMING
SLY TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CLEAR AND QUIET WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRE BY 5 AM CDT. THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E
TONIGHT/SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TO
WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON SAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVING FIRST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER IN
LATER FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WETTER SOLUTION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  54  80  61  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  49  79  58  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  54  86  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  50  83  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  56  76  64  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  51  84  56  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  51  82  59  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  58  75  64  78  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271107
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
607 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OFFSHORE BUT MOSTLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...THEN BECOMING
SLY TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CLEAR AND QUIET WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRE BY 5 AM CDT. THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E
TONIGHT/SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TO
WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON SAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVING FIRST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER IN
LATER FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WETTER SOLUTION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  54  80  61  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  49  79  58  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  54  86  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  50  83  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  56  76  64  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  51  84  56  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  51  82  59  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  58  75  64  78  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270900
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CLEAR AND QUIET WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRE BY 5 AM CDT. THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E
TONIGHT/SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TO
WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVING FIRST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER IN
LATER FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WETTER SOLUTION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  54  80  61  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  49  79  58  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  54  86  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  50  83  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  56  76  64  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  51  84  56  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  51  82  59  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  58  75  64  78  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 270900
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CLEAR AND QUIET WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRE BY 5 AM CDT. THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E
TONIGHT/SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TO
WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVING FIRST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER IN
LATER FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WETTER SOLUTION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  54  80  61  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  49  79  58  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  54  86  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  50  83  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  56  76  64  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  51  84  56  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  51  82  59  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  58  75  64  78  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270900
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CLEAR AND QUIET WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRE BY 5 AM CDT. THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E
TONIGHT/SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TO
WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVING FIRST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER IN
LATER FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WETTER SOLUTION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  54  80  61  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  49  79  58  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  54  86  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  50  83  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  56  76  64  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  51  84  56  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  51  82  59  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  58  75  64  78  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 270900
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CLEAR AND QUIET WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRE BY 5 AM CDT. THE SFC HIGH IS PROGD TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E
TONIGHT/SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TO
WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVING FIRST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER IN
LATER FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WETTER SOLUTION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  54  80  61  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  49  79  58  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  54  86  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  50  83  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  56  76  64  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  51  84  56  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  51  82  59  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  58  75  64  78  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270513
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1213 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER TROF AXIS CURRENTLY MOVG ACROSS S TX...WILL
EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO S
TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY CLR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE E OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT N TO NW WINDS BECOMING SLY BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING THIS EVENING AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. 85KT H25 JET STREAK IS SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND LINE OF SHOWERS FROM VCNTY LAREDO EASTWARD TO
BAFFIN BAY LIKELY MARKS LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER H85
AIRMASS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...H5 TROUGH AXIS IS
JUST NOW ENTERING NW COUNTIES AND THUS AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
EVENING /UNTIL DRIER AIR THEN SPREADS FARTHER S AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD/. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST
WAS TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH LATE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO WIND
FORECAST. WHILE WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST LAND AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LIGHT...VALUES ALONG THE COAST MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AND PEAK EARLY MORNING AS SMALL CORE OF
NORTHERLY 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT 925MB DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 270513
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1213 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER TROF AXIS CURRENTLY MOVG ACROSS S TX...WILL
EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO S
TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY CLR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE E OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT N TO NW WINDS BECOMING SLY BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING THIS EVENING AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. 85KT H25 JET STREAK IS SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND LINE OF SHOWERS FROM VCNTY LAREDO EASTWARD TO
BAFFIN BAY LIKELY MARKS LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER H85
AIRMASS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...H5 TROUGH AXIS IS
JUST NOW ENTERING NW COUNTIES AND THUS AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
EVENING /UNTIL DRIER AIR THEN SPREADS FARTHER S AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD/. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST
WAS TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH LATE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO WIND
FORECAST. WHILE WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST LAND AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LIGHT...VALUES ALONG THE COAST MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AND PEAK EARLY MORNING AS SMALL CORE OF
NORTHERLY 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT 925MB DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270513
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1213 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER TROF AXIS CURRENTLY MOVG ACROSS S TX...WILL
EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO S
TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY CLR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE E OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT N TO NW WINDS BECOMING SLY BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING THIS EVENING AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. 85KT H25 JET STREAK IS SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND LINE OF SHOWERS FROM VCNTY LAREDO EASTWARD TO
BAFFIN BAY LIKELY MARKS LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER H85
AIRMASS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...H5 TROUGH AXIS IS
JUST NOW ENTERING NW COUNTIES AND THUS AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
EVENING /UNTIL DRIER AIR THEN SPREADS FARTHER S AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD/. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST
WAS TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH LATE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO WIND
FORECAST. WHILE WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST LAND AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LIGHT...VALUES ALONG THE COAST MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AND PEAK EARLY MORNING AS SMALL CORE OF
NORTHERLY 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT 925MB DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 270513
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1213 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER TROF AXIS CURRENTLY MOVG ACROSS S TX...WILL
EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO S
TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY CLR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE E OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT N TO NW WINDS BECOMING SLY BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING THIS EVENING AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. 85KT H25 JET STREAK IS SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND LINE OF SHOWERS FROM VCNTY LAREDO EASTWARD TO
BAFFIN BAY LIKELY MARKS LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER H85
AIRMASS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...H5 TROUGH AXIS IS
JUST NOW ENTERING NW COUNTIES AND THUS AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
EVENING /UNTIL DRIER AIR THEN SPREADS FARTHER S AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD/. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST
WAS TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH LATE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO WIND
FORECAST. WHILE WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST LAND AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LIGHT...VALUES ALONG THE COAST MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AND PEAK EARLY MORNING AS SMALL CORE OF
NORTHERLY 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT 925MB DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270239 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
939 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING THIS EVENING AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. 85KT H25 JET STREAK IS SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND LINE OF SHOWERS FROM VCNTY LAREDO EASTWARD TO
BAFFIN BAY LIKELY MARKS LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER H85
AIRMASS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...H5 TROUGH AXIS IS
JUST NOW ENTERING NW COUNTIES AND THUS AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
EVENING /UNTIL DRIER AIR THEN SPREADS FARTHER S AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD/. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST
WAS TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH LATE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO WIND
FORECAST. WHILE WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST LAND AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LIGHT...VALUES ALONG THE COAST MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AND PEAK EARLY MORNING AS SMALL CORE OF
NORTHERLY 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT 925MB DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 270239 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
939 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING THIS EVENING AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. 85KT H25 JET STREAK IS SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND LINE OF SHOWERS FROM VCNTY LAREDO EASTWARD TO
BAFFIN BAY LIKELY MARKS LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER H85
AIRMASS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...H5 TROUGH AXIS IS
JUST NOW ENTERING NW COUNTIES AND THUS AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
EVENING /UNTIL DRIER AIR THEN SPREADS FARTHER S AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD/. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST
WAS TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH LATE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO WIND
FORECAST. WHILE WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST LAND AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LIGHT...VALUES ALONG THE COAST MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AND PEAK EARLY MORNING AS SMALL CORE OF
NORTHERLY 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT 925MB DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270239 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
939 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING THIS EVENING AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. 85KT H25 JET STREAK IS SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND LINE OF SHOWERS FROM VCNTY LAREDO EASTWARD TO
BAFFIN BAY LIKELY MARKS LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER H85
AIRMASS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...H5 TROUGH AXIS IS
JUST NOW ENTERING NW COUNTIES AND THUS AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
EVENING /UNTIL DRIER AIR THEN SPREADS FARTHER S AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD/. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST
WAS TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH LATE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO WIND
FORECAST. WHILE WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST LAND AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LIGHT...VALUES ALONG THE COAST MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AND PEAK EARLY MORNING AS SMALL CORE OF
NORTHERLY 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT 925MB DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 270239 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
939 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING THIS EVENING AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. 85KT H25 JET STREAK IS SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND LINE OF SHOWERS FROM VCNTY LAREDO EASTWARD TO
BAFFIN BAY LIKELY MARKS LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER H85
AIRMASS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...H5 TROUGH AXIS IS
JUST NOW ENTERING NW COUNTIES AND THUS AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
EVENING /UNTIL DRIER AIR THEN SPREADS FARTHER S AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD/. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST
WAS TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH LATE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO WIND
FORECAST. WHILE WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST LAND AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LIGHT...VALUES ALONG THE COAST MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD
LATE THIS EVENING AND PEAK EARLY MORNING AS SMALL CORE OF
NORTHERLY 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT 925MB DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 262330 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
630 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE
ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE BUT ISOLATED
CELLS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN AXIS FROM CRP-ALI-LRD. WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF TSRA IN ALI/CRP FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. THEN DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 02Z WHERE MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALTHOUGH 4KM MODELS
(MUCH LESS SYNOPTIC MODELS) HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL BEND (EVEN AS OF 17Z HRRR
RUN)...AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO END BY 00Z WITH SKIES CLEARING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE FROM SATELLITE MABYE A WEAK LOBE
OF ENERGY FROM RRQ OF JET IS WORKING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THAT BEING SAID...EXPECING COOL AND QUIET WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
AND WINDS BY EARLY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING...DID GO ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
WITH LOTS OF SUN AND LIGHT WINDS. WESTERLY ALBEIT WEAK FLOW COULD
HELP NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO. ONSHORE/SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESUME FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
CLOSER TO THE COAST (AS LONG AS WINDS DO NOT GO TOO MUCH WEST OF
SOUTH WHICH WOULD COOL THINGS DOWN). GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY INLAND AREAS ALTHOUGH COULD BE
COOLER NEAR THE COAST IF THOSE LIGHT SOUTHWEST LAND BREEZE WINDS
KICK IN. SINCE NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON...NOT MUCH ELSE TO SAY.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WILL ADJUST SCA SLIGHTLY
BUT MAINLY EXTENDED IT OUT OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. COULD HAVE SCA
END BEFORE 6 PM FOR THE BAYS/WATERWAYS BUT WILL JUST KEEP SCA
GOING TIL 6 PM (ALTHOUGH MAY DECIDE AT THE LAST MINUTE TO END IT
IF OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SCA FOR
WINDS AND SEAS EXPANDED UNTIL 3 AM FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND 5 AM FOR
THE OFFSHORE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED. FLOW WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN BECOMES WEAK SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT (MORE MODERATE OFFSHORE IN THE GULF). OVERALL NOT TOO BAD OF
A MARINE SITUATION ONCE TONIGHT IS OVER WITH.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET BEGINNING TO THE LONG
TERM FORECAST WITH DRIER AIR AND RIDGING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS DISTURBANCE MORE STRONGLY OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH IT.
EITHER WAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING OUT WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING TUESDAY.

SEE MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WRT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GFS STILL SHOWS A DRY LINE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST (HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S). THE ECMWF KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE 70S
AREAWIDE. FOR THE TIME WILL RELY ON BLENDED GUIDANCE...AS BOTH
SOLUTIONS APPEAR STILL TOO EXTREME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /  10   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 262330 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
630 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE
ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE BUT ISOLATED
CELLS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN AXIS FROM CRP-ALI-LRD. WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF TSRA IN ALI/CRP FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. THEN DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 02Z WHERE MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALTHOUGH 4KM MODELS
(MUCH LESS SYNOPTIC MODELS) HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL BEND (EVEN AS OF 17Z HRRR
RUN)...AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO END BY 00Z WITH SKIES CLEARING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE FROM SATELLITE MABYE A WEAK LOBE
OF ENERGY FROM RRQ OF JET IS WORKING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THAT BEING SAID...EXPECING COOL AND QUIET WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
AND WINDS BY EARLY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING...DID GO ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
WITH LOTS OF SUN AND LIGHT WINDS. WESTERLY ALBEIT WEAK FLOW COULD
HELP NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO. ONSHORE/SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESUME FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
CLOSER TO THE COAST (AS LONG AS WINDS DO NOT GO TOO MUCH WEST OF
SOUTH WHICH WOULD COOL THINGS DOWN). GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY INLAND AREAS ALTHOUGH COULD BE
COOLER NEAR THE COAST IF THOSE LIGHT SOUTHWEST LAND BREEZE WINDS
KICK IN. SINCE NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON...NOT MUCH ELSE TO SAY.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WILL ADJUST SCA SLIGHTLY
BUT MAINLY EXTENDED IT OUT OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. COULD HAVE SCA
END BEFORE 6 PM FOR THE BAYS/WATERWAYS BUT WILL JUST KEEP SCA
GOING TIL 6 PM (ALTHOUGH MAY DECIDE AT THE LAST MINUTE TO END IT
IF OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SCA FOR
WINDS AND SEAS EXPANDED UNTIL 3 AM FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND 5 AM FOR
THE OFFSHORE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED. FLOW WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN BECOMES WEAK SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT (MORE MODERATE OFFSHORE IN THE GULF). OVERALL NOT TOO BAD OF
A MARINE SITUATION ONCE TONIGHT IS OVER WITH.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET BEGINNING TO THE LONG
TERM FORECAST WITH DRIER AIR AND RIDGING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS DISTURBANCE MORE STRONGLY OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH IT.
EITHER WAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING OUT WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING TUESDAY.

SEE MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WRT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GFS STILL SHOWS A DRY LINE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST (HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S). THE ECMWF KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE 70S
AREAWIDE. FOR THE TIME WILL RELY ON BLENDED GUIDANCE...AS BOTH
SOLUTIONS APPEAR STILL TOO EXTREME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /  10   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 262040
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALTHOUGH 4KM MODELS
(MUCH LESS SYNOPTIC MODELS) HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL BEND (EVEN AS OF 17Z HRRR
RUN)...AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO END BY 00Z WITH SKIES CLEARING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE FROM SATELLITE MABYE A WEAK LOBE
OF ENERGY FROM RRQ OF JET IS WORKING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THAT BEING SAID...EXPECING COOL AND QUIET WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
AND WINDS BY EARLY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING...DID GO ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
WITH LOTS OF SUN AND LIGHT WINDS. WESTERLY ALBEIT WEAK FLOW COULD
HELP NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO. ONSHORE/SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESUME FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
CLOSER TO THE COAST (AS LONG AS WINDS DO NOT GO TOO MUCH WEST OF
SOUTH WHICH WOULD COOL THINGS DOWN). GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY INLAND AREAS ALTHOUGH COULD BE
COOLER NEAR THE COAST IF THOSE LIGHT SOUTHWEST LAND BREEZE WINDS
KICK IN. SINCE NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON...NOT MUCH ELSE TO SAY.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WILL ADJUST SCA SLIGHTLY
BUT MAINLY EXTENDED IT OUT OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. COULD HAVE SCA
END BEFORE 6 PM FOR THE BAYS/WATERWAYS BUT WILL JUST KEEP SCA
GOING TIL 6 PM (ALTHOUGH MAY DECIDE AT THE LAST MINUTE TO END IT
IF OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SCA FOR
WINDS AND SEAS EXPANDED UNTIL 3 AM FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND 5 AM FOR
THE OFFSHORE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED. FLOW WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN BECOMES WEAK SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT (MORE MODERATE OFFSHORE IN THE GULF). OVERALL NOT TOO BAD OF
A MARINE SITUATION ONCE TONIGHT IS OVER WITH.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET BEGINNING TO THE LONG
TERM FORECAST WITH DRIER AIR AND RIDGING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS DISTURBANCE MORE STRONGLY OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH IT.
EITHER WAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING OUT WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING TUESDAY.

SEE MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WRT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GFS STILL SHOWS A DRY LINE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST (HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S). THE ECMWF KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE 70S
AREAWIDE. FOR THE TIME WILL RELY ON BLENDED GUIDANCE...AS BOTH
SOLUTIONS APPEAR STILL TOO EXTREME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 262040
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALTHOUGH 4KM MODELS
(MUCH LESS SYNOPTIC MODELS) HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL BEND (EVEN AS OF 17Z HRRR
RUN)...AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO END BY 00Z WITH SKIES CLEARING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE FROM SATELLITE MABYE A WEAK LOBE
OF ENERGY FROM RRQ OF JET IS WORKING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THAT BEING SAID...EXPECING COOL AND QUIET WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
AND WINDS BY EARLY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING...DID GO ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
WITH LOTS OF SUN AND LIGHT WINDS. WESTERLY ALBEIT WEAK FLOW COULD
HELP NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO. ONSHORE/SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESUME FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
CLOSER TO THE COAST (AS LONG AS WINDS DO NOT GO TOO MUCH WEST OF
SOUTH WHICH WOULD COOL THINGS DOWN). GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY INLAND AREAS ALTHOUGH COULD BE
COOLER NEAR THE COAST IF THOSE LIGHT SOUTHWEST LAND BREEZE WINDS
KICK IN. SINCE NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON...NOT MUCH ELSE TO SAY.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WILL ADJUST SCA SLIGHTLY
BUT MAINLY EXTENDED IT OUT OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. COULD HAVE SCA
END BEFORE 6 PM FOR THE BAYS/WATERWAYS BUT WILL JUST KEEP SCA
GOING TIL 6 PM (ALTHOUGH MAY DECIDE AT THE LAST MINUTE TO END IT
IF OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SCA FOR
WINDS AND SEAS EXPANDED UNTIL 3 AM FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND 5 AM FOR
THE OFFSHORE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED. FLOW WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN BECOMES WEAK SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT (MORE MODERATE OFFSHORE IN THE GULF). OVERALL NOT TOO BAD OF
A MARINE SITUATION ONCE TONIGHT IS OVER WITH.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET BEGINNING TO THE LONG
TERM FORECAST WITH DRIER AIR AND RIDGING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS DISTURBANCE MORE STRONGLY OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH IT.
EITHER WAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING OUT WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING TUESDAY.

SEE MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WRT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GFS STILL SHOWS A DRY LINE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST (HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S). THE ECMWF KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE 70S
AREAWIDE. FOR THE TIME WILL RELY ON BLENDED GUIDANCE...AS BOTH
SOLUTIONS APPEAR STILL TOO EXTREME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 262040
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALTHOUGH 4KM MODELS
(MUCH LESS SYNOPTIC MODELS) HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL BEND (EVEN AS OF 17Z HRRR
RUN)...AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO END BY 00Z WITH SKIES CLEARING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE FROM SATELLITE MABYE A WEAK LOBE
OF ENERGY FROM RRQ OF JET IS WORKING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THAT BEING SAID...EXPECING COOL AND QUIET WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
AND WINDS BY EARLY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING...DID GO ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
WITH LOTS OF SUN AND LIGHT WINDS. WESTERLY ALBEIT WEAK FLOW COULD
HELP NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO. ONSHORE/SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESUME FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
CLOSER TO THE COAST (AS LONG AS WINDS DO NOT GO TOO MUCH WEST OF
SOUTH WHICH WOULD COOL THINGS DOWN). GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY INLAND AREAS ALTHOUGH COULD BE
COOLER NEAR THE COAST IF THOSE LIGHT SOUTHWEST LAND BREEZE WINDS
KICK IN. SINCE NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON...NOT MUCH ELSE TO SAY.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WILL ADJUST SCA SLIGHTLY
BUT MAINLY EXTENDED IT OUT OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. COULD HAVE SCA
END BEFORE 6 PM FOR THE BAYS/WATERWAYS BUT WILL JUST KEEP SCA
GOING TIL 6 PM (ALTHOUGH MAY DECIDE AT THE LAST MINUTE TO END IT
IF OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SCA FOR
WINDS AND SEAS EXPANDED UNTIL 3 AM FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND 5 AM FOR
THE OFFSHORE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED. FLOW WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN BECOMES WEAK SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT (MORE MODERATE OFFSHORE IN THE GULF). OVERALL NOT TOO BAD OF
A MARINE SITUATION ONCE TONIGHT IS OVER WITH.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET BEGINNING TO THE LONG
TERM FORECAST WITH DRIER AIR AND RIDGING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS DISTURBANCE MORE STRONGLY OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH IT.
EITHER WAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING OUT WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING TUESDAY.

SEE MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WRT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GFS STILL SHOWS A DRY LINE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST (HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S). THE ECMWF KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE 70S
AREAWIDE. FOR THE TIME WILL RELY ON BLENDED GUIDANCE...AS BOTH
SOLUTIONS APPEAR STILL TOO EXTREME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  77  54  78  60  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  77  49  78  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            51  79  53  85  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             48  79  50  82  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  73  55  75  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           47  79  51  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  79  50  81  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  75  58  75  64  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 261701 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1201 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z OR SO ALL AREAS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 27/01Z WITH NO GUSTS. SKIES CLEAR AOA
27/06Z WITH LIGHT NW WINDS REMAINING IN THE MORNING THROUGH 18Z AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCRP AND KALI PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE THE REST OF THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOWER THE RAIN
CHANCES AS CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH OVER ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. WIND FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. STILL LOTS OF CLOUDS
AROUND BUT SHOULD SEE THOSE DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ZFP AND
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON TRACK. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE. CONVECTION IS WEAK BUT AROUND AND SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY BY THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES BEYOND THE 2ND PERIOD (MAINLY
WX AND POPS).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
AS FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD AND WILL KEEP -SHRA REMARKS IN THE
TAFS. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE COMMON UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
LAY DOWN AROUND 00Z/01Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE
ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING...AND WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN
ZONE JUST AFTER 12Z. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 18Z. THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A THIN LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE WITH SOME SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TRANQUIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
TONIGHT WITH MID/UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE IN LONG
TERM FORECAST FROM THE PAST FEW PACKAGES. WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW
REDEVELOPING WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND ALSO INCREASE TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /MAY/ AFFECT THE REGION. GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING THE DISTURBANCE...WITH MODERATE ENERGY...ACROSS
TEXAS WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
MODEL CONTINUES TO PULL THE DISTURBANCE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...AND IN
THE LATEST RUN IS MUCH WEAKER WITH IT. WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA...SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH EITHER
SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ARE ALSO VASTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TWO SOLUTIONS...GFS WITH
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S BEHIND A DRYLINE...WHILE ECMWF IS IN
THE 70S. HAVE TO JUST GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AS BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE ON EXTREME SIDES OF THE COIN. LEANED A BIT
WARMER THAN A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  50  75  56  79  /  30   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  47  76  53  79  /  20   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            71  50  78  54  83  /  20   0   0   0   0
ALICE             74  50  78  52  82  /  30   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          72  52  74  60  75  /  40   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  48  78  53  82  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        76  50  77  54  81  /  30   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       73  54  73  61  76  /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 261701 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1201 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z OR SO ALL AREAS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 27/01Z WITH NO GUSTS. SKIES CLEAR AOA
27/06Z WITH LIGHT NW WINDS REMAINING IN THE MORNING THROUGH 18Z AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCRP AND KALI PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE THE REST OF THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOWER THE RAIN
CHANCES AS CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH OVER ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. WIND FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. STILL LOTS OF CLOUDS
AROUND BUT SHOULD SEE THOSE DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ZFP AND
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON TRACK. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE. CONVECTION IS WEAK BUT AROUND AND SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY BY THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES BEYOND THE 2ND PERIOD (MAINLY
WX AND POPS).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
AS FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD AND WILL KEEP -SHRA REMARKS IN THE
TAFS. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE COMMON UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
LAY DOWN AROUND 00Z/01Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE
ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING...AND WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN
ZONE JUST AFTER 12Z. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 18Z. THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A THIN LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE WITH SOME SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TRANQUIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
TONIGHT WITH MID/UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE IN LONG
TERM FORECAST FROM THE PAST FEW PACKAGES. WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW
REDEVELOPING WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND ALSO INCREASE TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /MAY/ AFFECT THE REGION. GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING THE DISTURBANCE...WITH MODERATE ENERGY...ACROSS
TEXAS WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
MODEL CONTINUES TO PULL THE DISTURBANCE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...AND IN
THE LATEST RUN IS MUCH WEAKER WITH IT. WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA...SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH EITHER
SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ARE ALSO VASTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TWO SOLUTIONS...GFS WITH
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S BEHIND A DRYLINE...WHILE ECMWF IS IN
THE 70S. HAVE TO JUST GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AS BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE ON EXTREME SIDES OF THE COIN. LEANED A BIT
WARMER THAN A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  50  75  56  79  /  30   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  47  76  53  79  /  20   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            71  50  78  54  83  /  20   0   0   0   0
ALICE             74  50  78  52  82  /  30   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          72  52  74  60  75  /  40   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  48  78  53  82  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        76  50  77  54  81  /  30   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       73  54  73  61  76  /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 261701 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1201 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z OR SO ALL AREAS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 27/01Z WITH NO GUSTS. SKIES CLEAR AOA
27/06Z WITH LIGHT NW WINDS REMAINING IN THE MORNING THROUGH 18Z AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCRP AND KALI PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE THE REST OF THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOWER THE RAIN
CHANCES AS CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH OVER ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. WIND FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. STILL LOTS OF CLOUDS
AROUND BUT SHOULD SEE THOSE DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ZFP AND
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON TRACK. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE. CONVECTION IS WEAK BUT AROUND AND SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY BY THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES BEYOND THE 2ND PERIOD (MAINLY
WX AND POPS).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
AS FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD AND WILL KEEP -SHRA REMARKS IN THE
TAFS. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE COMMON UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
LAY DOWN AROUND 00Z/01Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE
ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING...AND WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN
ZONE JUST AFTER 12Z. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 18Z. THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A THIN LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE WITH SOME SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TRANQUIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
TONIGHT WITH MID/UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE IN LONG
TERM FORECAST FROM THE PAST FEW PACKAGES. WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW
REDEVELOPING WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND ALSO INCREASE TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /MAY/ AFFECT THE REGION. GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING THE DISTURBANCE...WITH MODERATE ENERGY...ACROSS
TEXAS WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
MODEL CONTINUES TO PULL THE DISTURBANCE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...AND IN
THE LATEST RUN IS MUCH WEAKER WITH IT. WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA...SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH EITHER
SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ARE ALSO VASTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TWO SOLUTIONS...GFS WITH
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S BEHIND A DRYLINE...WHILE ECMWF IS IN
THE 70S. HAVE TO JUST GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AS BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE ON EXTREME SIDES OF THE COIN. LEANED A BIT
WARMER THAN A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  50  75  56  79  /  30   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  47  76  53  79  /  20   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            71  50  78  54  83  /  20   0   0   0   0
ALICE             74  50  78  52  82  /  30   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          72  52  74  60  75  /  40   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  48  78  53  82  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        76  50  77  54  81  /  30   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       73  54  73  61  76  /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 261701 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1201 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z OR SO ALL AREAS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 27/01Z WITH NO GUSTS. SKIES CLEAR AOA
27/06Z WITH LIGHT NW WINDS REMAINING IN THE MORNING THROUGH 18Z AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCRP AND KALI PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE THE REST OF THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOWER THE RAIN
CHANCES AS CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH OVER ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. WIND FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. STILL LOTS OF CLOUDS
AROUND BUT SHOULD SEE THOSE DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ZFP AND
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON TRACK. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE. CONVECTION IS WEAK BUT AROUND AND SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY BY THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES BEYOND THE 2ND PERIOD (MAINLY
WX AND POPS).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
AS FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD AND WILL KEEP -SHRA REMARKS IN THE
TAFS. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE COMMON UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
LAY DOWN AROUND 00Z/01Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE
ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING...AND WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN
ZONE JUST AFTER 12Z. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 18Z. THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A THIN LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE WITH SOME SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TRANQUIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
TONIGHT WITH MID/UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE IN LONG
TERM FORECAST FROM THE PAST FEW PACKAGES. WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW
REDEVELOPING WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND ALSO INCREASE TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /MAY/ AFFECT THE REGION. GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING THE DISTURBANCE...WITH MODERATE ENERGY...ACROSS
TEXAS WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
MODEL CONTINUES TO PULL THE DISTURBANCE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...AND IN
THE LATEST RUN IS MUCH WEAKER WITH IT. WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA...SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH EITHER
SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ARE ALSO VASTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TWO SOLUTIONS...GFS WITH
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S BEHIND A DRYLINE...WHILE ECMWF IS IN
THE 70S. HAVE TO JUST GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AS BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE ON EXTREME SIDES OF THE COIN. LEANED A BIT
WARMER THAN A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  50  75  56  79  /  30   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  47  76  53  79  /  20   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            71  50  78  54  83  /  20   0   0   0   0
ALICE             74  50  78  52  82  /  30   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          72  52  74  60  75  /  40   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  48  78  53  82  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        76  50  77  54  81  /  30   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       73  54  73  61  76  /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 261557 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1057 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCRP AND KALI PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE THE REST OF THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOWER THE RAIN
CHANCES AS CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH OVER ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. WIND FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. STILL LOTS OF CLOUDS
AROUND BUT SHOULD SEE THOSE DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ZFP AND
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON TRACK. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE. CONVECTION IS WEAK BUT AROUND AND SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY BY THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES BEYOND THE 2ND PERIOD (MAINLY
WX AND POPS).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
AS FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD AND WILL KEEP -SHRA REMARKS IN THE
TAFS. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE COMMON UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
LAY DOWN AROUND 00Z/01Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE
ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING...AND WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN
ZONE JUST AFTER 12Z. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 18Z. THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A THIN LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE WITH SOME SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TRANQUIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
TONIGHT WITH MID/UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE IN LONG
TERM FORECAST FROM THE PAST FEW PACKAGES. WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW
REDEVELOPING WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND ALSO INCREASE TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /MAY/ AFFECT THE REGION. GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING THE DISTURBANCE...WITH MODERATE ENERGY...ACROSS
TEXAS WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
MODEL CONTINUES TO PULL THE DISTURBANCE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...AND IN
THE LATEST RUN IS MUCH WEAKER WITH IT. WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA...SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH EITHER
SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ARE ALSO VASTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TWO SOLUTIONS...GFS WITH
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S BEHIND A DRYLINE...WHILE ECMWF IS IN
THE 70S. HAVE TO JUST GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AS BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE ON EXTREME SIDES OF THE COIN. LEANED A BIT
WARMER THAN A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  50  75  56  79  /  30   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  47  76  53  79  /  20   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            71  50  78  54  83  /  20   0   0   0   0
ALICE             74  50  78  52  82  /  30   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          72  52  74  60  75  /  40   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  48  78  53  82  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        76  50  77  54  81  /  30   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       73  54  73  61  76  /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







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