000
FXUS64 KCRP 190248 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
948 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...REMOVED THUNDER...AND WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE RAIN ALL
TOGETHER (EXCEPT FOR GULFMEX)...CONSIDERING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO AREA AND IMPACTS OF DISTURBANCE
EXITING. HOWEVER...HAVE SEEN A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS (VERY WEAK) FROM
TIME TO TIME (OUT OF AREA THOUGH) SO DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS FINE. WILL KEEP
MORNING RAIN (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE) IN FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WILL LET MID SHIFT DECIDE WHETHER TO KEEP IT OR NOT.
NO OTHER REAL CHANGES NEEDED...SO DID NOT MESS WITH TOO MUCH AS
EVEN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PANNING OUT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. THINKING A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS GOOD ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
SKY CONDITIONS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A TEMPORARILY MVFR
CONDITION FOR ANY SITE...BUT THE CHANCE SEEMS LOW CONSIDERING WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SIMILAR OVERALL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE TONIGHT. QUESTIONABLE WIND FORECAST FOR LRD SITE. UNSURE IF
SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THERE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE WINDS. SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE BRINGS 20KT GUSTS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE NON-GUSTY
SOLUTION...BUT MAY HAVE TO AMEND OVERNIGHT IF SEA BREEZE
APPROACHES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SKIRTING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND COASTAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE TAIL END OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE BETTER FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH OF THE
REGION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
COASTAL...NORTHEAST...AND MARINE ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 109
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS OVERNIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM WILL BEGIN
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS. REMNANTS AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD 2 WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO
MIDDLE 90S IN THE NORTHEAST WILL BE COMMON. IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF HEAT RELATED STRESS POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP SO WILL RETAIN LOW END POPS FOR THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 80 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 96 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 102 78 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 77 97 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 91 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 98 78 98 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 88 80 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 182331
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
631 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. THINKING A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS GOOD ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
SKY CONDITIONS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A TEMPORARILY MVFR
CONDITION FOR ANY SITE...BUT THE CHANCE SEEMS LOW CONSIDERING WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SIMILAR OVERALL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE TONIGHT. QUESTIONABLE WIND FORECAST FOR LRD SITE. UNSURE IF
SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THERE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE WINDS. SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE BRINGS 20KT GUSTS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE NON-GUSTY
SOLUTION...BUT MAY HAVE TO AMEND OVERNIGHT IF SEA BREEZE
APPROACHES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SKIRTING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND COASTAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE TAIL END OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE BETTER FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH OF THE
REGION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
COASTAL...NORTHEAST...AND MARINE ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 109
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS OVERNIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM WILL BEGIN
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS. REMNANTS AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD 2 WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO
MIDDLE 90S IN THE NORTHEAST WILL BE COMMON. IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF HEAT RELATED STRESS POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP SO WILL RETAIN LOW END POPS FOR THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 80 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 96 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 102 78 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 77 97 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 91 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 98 78 98 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 88 80 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 182046
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SKIRTING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND COASTAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE TAIL END OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE BETTER FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH OF THE
REGION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
COASTAL...NORTHEAST...AND MARINE ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 109
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS OVERNIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM WILL BEGIN
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS. REMNANTS AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD 2 WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO
MIDDLE 90S IN THE NORTHEAST WILL BE COMMON. IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF HEAT RELATED STRESS POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP SO WILL RETAIN LOW END POPS FOR THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 80 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 96 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 102 78 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 77 97 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 91 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 98 78 98 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 88 80 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 181719
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND BACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN KALI AND KCRP...AND WILL REMAIN MORE MODERATE AROUND KLRD
AND KVCT. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND LATER AT KLRD /AOA 08Z/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 96 80 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 96 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 101 80 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 96 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 91 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 75 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 97 79 97 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 88 81 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 181140 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
640 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE FROM ALI-LRD. A BIT OF STRATUS DEVELOPING BTWN ALI-
LRD...THAT HAS HAD A HISTORY OF ERODING QUICKLY. THEREFORE...WILL
LEAVE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS OUT AS WELL AS THE LIGHT PATCHY VFR
FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A WIND FORECAST WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SE-LY THIS AFTN/EVNG. LRD WINDS
OUT OF THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM ALI-CRP. WINDS TO DECOUPLE THIS EVNG...WITH
LRD DECOUPLING AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ESCARPMENT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE EXISTS OVER
SOUTH TEXAS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WESTERN
GULF. IF STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO SOUTH TEXAS...DRIER AIR SHOULD
ENTRAIN INTO THE STORMS ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH.
ADDED ONLY SILENT 10 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA
FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AS
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES ITS HOLD
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. KEPT SILENT POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AS THE VORT LOBE STRETCHES INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS
REMAINING JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND A STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...THEN EXPAND
ON AN AXIS FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH TEXAS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A
COURSE THAT MAY BRING IT BACK INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN MOVE BACK INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE
CURRENT TRACK SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS ANY SWELLS.
THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY AND MARGINAL MOISTURE
RETURN SHOULD LEAD TO A THREAT OF MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BY AFTERNOON FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MARINE...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 79 96 80 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 97 75 96 76 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 101 79 101 80 102 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 97 76 96 76 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 92 80 91 81 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 99 75 98 75 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 99 78 97 79 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 89 80 88 81 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 180937
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
437 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ESCARPMENT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE EXISTS OVER
SOUTH TEXAS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WESTERN
GULF. IF STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO SOUTH TEXAS...DRIER AIR SHOULD
ENTRAIN INTO THE STORMS ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH.
ADDED ONLY SILENT 10 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA
FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AS
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES ITS HOLD
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. KEPT SILENT POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AS THE VORT LOBE STRETCHES INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS
REMAINING JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND A STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...THEN EXPAND
ON AN AXIS FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH TEXAS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A
COURSE THAT MAY BRING IT BACK INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN MOVE BACK INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE
CURRENT TRACK SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS ANY SWELLS.
THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY AND MARGINAL MOISTURE
RETURN SHOULD LEAD TO A THREAT OF MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BY AFTERNOON FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 79 96 80 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 97 75 96 76 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 101 79 101 80 102 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 97 76 96 76 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 92 80 91 81 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 99 75 98 75 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 99 78 97 79 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 89 80 88 81 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 180553 AAC
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS FROM CRP-ALI-BEA. SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP ONLY
TEMPO MVFR. LIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE HOWEVER
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT. OTHERWISE...A
SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH WINDS...WITH DECOUPLING TONIGHT
BECOMING S-LY...THEN SE-LY IN THE AFTN/EVNG. WINDS AT LRD WILL BE
SE-LY THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 80 98 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 95 76 96 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 101 78 102 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 98 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 92 81 92 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 99 75 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 98 79 98 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 91 81 91 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 180244 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
944 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGE OR TWO TO TEMPERATURE (PERSISTENCE) AND
SKY GRIDS (INCREASE HIGH CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST BASED ON
SATELLITE). OTHERWISE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT PATTERN IN THE TAF FORECAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WINDS DECREASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST....AND HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT DAY. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TO
CARRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AGAIN WENT SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S JUST ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S INLAND...AND LOWER 100S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 CAN
BE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN NEAR MODERATE LEVELS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE AND COASTAL
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
OVER LAND...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO A WEAK TO MODERATE FLOW...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE A
WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF. SLIGHT
H85-H7 COOLING OCCURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE STRAY OR ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE GULF
WATERS EACH MORNING...AND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. BUT
MARGINAL MOISTURE VALUES WILL PRECLUDE MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORMED THIS MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST...INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...POSSIBLY EMERGING
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUESDAY. WITH THE RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INTO MEXICO. IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
DOES EMERGE BACK INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND STRENGTHENS...THEN
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD IMPACT MARINE AREAS AND AREA BEACHES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL GULF WORKING INTO THE COASTAL BEND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR
THESE DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND
EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 97 79 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 76 96 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 80 102 79 101 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 77 98 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 82 92 81 92 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 98 75 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 96 78 98 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 92 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 172313
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
613 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT PATTERN IN THE TAF FORECAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WINDS DECREASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST....AND HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT DAY. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TO
CARRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AGAIN WENT SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S JUST ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S INLAND...AND LOWER 100S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 CAN
BE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN NEAR MODERATE LEVELS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE AND COASTAL
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
OVER LAND...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO A WEAK TO MODERATE FLOW...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE A
WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF. SLIGHT
H85-H7 COOLING OCCURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE STRAY OR ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE GULF
WATERS EACH MORNING...AND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. BUT
MARGINAL MOISTURE VALUES WILL PRECLUDE MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORMED THIS MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST...INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...POSSIBLY EMERGING
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUESDAY. WITH THE RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INTO MEXICO. IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
DOES EMERGE BACK INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND STRENGTHENS...THEN
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD IMPACT MARINE AREAS AND AREA BEACHES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL GULF WORKING INTO THE COASTAL BEND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR
THESE DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND
EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 79 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 96 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 102 79 101 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 98 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 92 81 92 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 75 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 96 78 98 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 92 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 172036
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
336 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST....AND HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT DAY. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TO
CARRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AGAIN WENT SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S JUST ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S INLAND...AND LOWER 100S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 CAN
BE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN NEAR MODERATE LEVELS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE AND COASTAL
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
OVER LAND...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO A WEAK TO MODERATE FLOW...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE A
WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF. SLIGHT
H85-H7 COOLING OCCURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE STRAY OR ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE GULF
WATERS EACH MORNING...AND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. BUT
MARGINAL MOISTURE VALUES WILL PRECLUDE MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORMED THIS MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST...INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...POSSIBLY EMERGING
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUESDAY. WITH THE RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INTO MEXICO. IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
DOES EMERGE BACK INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND STRENGTHENS...THEN
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD IMPACT MARINE AREAS AND AREA BEACHES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL GULF WORKING INTO THE COASTAL BEND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR
THESE DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND
EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 79 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 96 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 102 79 101 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 98 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 92 81 92 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 75 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 96 78 98 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 92 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 171734
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER NIGHT AND STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY FILL IN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AROUND KALI AND KCRP BEFORE SCATTERING BACK TO VFR COVERAGE BY
MID MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 79 97 80 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 96 75 95 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 102 79 102 79 101 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 98 76 97 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 92 82 92 81 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 99 75 99 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 98 76 97 79 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 91 81 91 82 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 171150 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
650 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERAL VFR ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM ALI-CRP THROUGH 14Z. LIGHT SLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KTS AROUND 15Z...BECOMING SELY AFTER
18Z. GUSTS TO 20-25KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE AGAIN THIS EVNG /AFTER 06Z FOR LRD/. CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVNG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING PWATS AROUND 1.6 INCHES THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED
WITH A LINGERING VORT MAX...DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY FOR THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND. A MODERATE CAP REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND 18-20C AND H7 TEMPS AROUND 10-11C. WITH THIS BEING
SAID...ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...WILL
ONLY KEEP 10 POPS WITH MENTION FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE FURTHER DRYING OCCURS AND THE VORT
LOBE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL GO ON THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM AND BREEZY DAYS ARE
AGAIN IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH PERSISTENT TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS...TO NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...TO THE LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS IS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO TEXAS THURSDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD COURSE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AND INLAND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE OZARKS TO SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RAIN
CHANCES MINIMAL.
MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EARLY
THIS MORNING...SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID MORNING...ONLY TO RESTRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. HOWEVER OVERALL
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS. THEREFORE...HEADLINES OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATER FORECAST PRODUCT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 79 97 80 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 96 75 95 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 102 79 102 79 101 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 98 76 97 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 92 82 92 81 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 99 75 99 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 98 76 97 79 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 91 81 91 82 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 170928
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
428 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING PWATS AROUND 1.6 INCHES THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED
WITH A LINGERING VORT MAX...DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY FOR THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND. A MODERATE CAP REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND 18-20C AND H7 TEMPS AROUND 10-11C. WITH THIS BEING
SAID...ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...WILL
ONLY KEEP 10 POPS WITH MENTION FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE FURTHER DRYING OCCURS AND THE VORT
LOBE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL GO ON THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM AND BREEZY DAYS ARE
AGAIN IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH PERSISTENT TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS...TO NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...TO THE LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS IS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO TEXAS THURSDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD COURSE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AND INLAND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE OZARKS TO SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RAIN
CHANCES MINIMAL.
&&
.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EARLY
THIS MORNING...SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID MORNING...ONLY TO RESTRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. HOWEVER OVERALL
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS. THEREFORE...HEADLINES OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATER FORECAST PRODUCT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 79 97 80 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 96 75 95 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 102 79 102 79 101 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 98 76 97 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 92 82 92 81 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 99 75 99 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 98 76 97 79 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 91 81 91 82 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 170549 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1249 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS MOVING IN FROM NQI-ALI-BEA WITH AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT TO BE PREVAILING
FOR ALI...WITH BRIEF MVFR PERIODS NEAR CRP AND LRD. PREVAILING VFR
FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL RESUME BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AROUND 15Z...SWITCHING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER 18Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
ALI-CRP-VCT. WINDS WILL THEN DECOUPLE ONCE MORE AFTER 01Z...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LRD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 80 96 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 76 93 75 93 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 78 102 79 102 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 97 77 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 82 92 81 92 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 99 75 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 97 79 97 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 91 81 92 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 162326
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
626 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS
DECREASING AND HAVE TAKEN ALL MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.
STILL HAVE SOME CU AROUND...AS WELL AS TOPS BLOWN OFF OF EARLIER
CONVECTION AFFECTING ALI AND CRP SITES. EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MAY NOT GO BKN FOR MOST SITES. DID ADD A
TEMPO GROUP FOR CRP...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MVFR CIGS FOR OTHER
SITES. CLOUD HEIGHTS INCREASE TOMORROW WITH A BREEZY DAY EXPECTED.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AT VCT TAF SITE
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING UP ON IT SO HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY AND
REMNANTS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ASSIST
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE THROUGH SUNSET. COULD SEE SOME
WEAK STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
WARM CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE AS ADDITIONAL DRYING TAKES PLACE. HEAT INDEX VALUES 105
TO 109 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN
CONTINUES BUILDING IN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BY MID/LATE WEEK RIDGE
WILL BE STRONGLY CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING A
TROPICAL WAVE AND GULF MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
TROPICAL WAVE HAS NOW BEEN CONSISTENTLY GOING SOUTH INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...SO FELT COMFORTABLE LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE
PERIOD. AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTH. COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
COAST AND COASTAL WATERS THEN. KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS IT WAS SO
FAR OUT THE PERIOD...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT TO SEE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT. WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BASED ON
GENERAL TRENDS OF LATE. HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109
DEGREES WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 79 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 76 95 76 93 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 78 101 78 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 98 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 82 92 82 92 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 98 75 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 98 78 97 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 91 80 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 162038
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY AND
REMNANTS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ASSIST
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE THROUGH SUNSET. COULD SEE SOME
WEAK STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
WARM CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE AS ADDITIONAL DRYING TAKES PLACE. HEAT INDEX VALUES 105
TO 109 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN
CONTINUES BUILDING IN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BY MID/LATE WEEK RIDGE
WILL BE STRONGLY CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING A
TROPICAL WAVE AND GULF MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
TROPICAL WAVE HAS NOW BEEN CONSISTENTLY GOING SOUTH INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...SO FELT COMFORTABLE LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE
PERIOD. AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTH. COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
COAST AND COASTAL WATERS THEN. KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS IT WAS SO
FAR OUT THE PERIOD...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT TO SEE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT. WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BASED ON
GENERAL TRENDS OF LATE. HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109
DEGREES WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 79 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 76 95 76 93 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 78 101 78 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 98 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 82 92 82 92 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 98 75 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 98 78 97 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 91 80 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 161800
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE
ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL BEND. THE SEA-BREEZE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE NEAR
NQI-RBO-VCT LINE. THESE SHRA WILL PUSH INLAND THRU THE AFTERNOON...
REMAINING ISOLATED. ISOLATED TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR LRD. VCSH INCLUDED IN ALI/VCT/LRD TAFS WITH CB IN
LRD TAFS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS SHOULD END OUT NEAR LRD AROUND
SUNSET. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH S WINDS TURNING SE 10-15
KTS BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 96 80 97 79 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 96 76 96 76 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 99 79 102 79 102 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 98 77 99 76 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 91 81 92 81 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 97 75 99 76 100 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 97 79 99 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 91 81 93 81 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 161131 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
631 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500-2000 FEET WILL
CONTINUE GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIM THREAT FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS ALONG I-35 LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
BUT THREAT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN LRD TAF. ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT TO SEE AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS NEAR 1200 FEET FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS AFTER 09Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS THE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE NORTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY WHILE MUCH DRIER AIR OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD. A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL BE NEAR OR WEST OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE COASTAL BEND BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL
GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY AS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS DAMPENS OUT FOR MONDAY AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT LESS CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
TO EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. H5 RIDGING TO BE PRIMARY WEATHER
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING
MORE CENTERED OVER TX BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE PROGD TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND THUS AM GOING WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S NEARLY AREAWIDE...EXCEPT
FOR 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND AROUND 100 ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 96 80 97 79 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 96 76 96 76 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 99 79 102 79 102 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 98 77 99 76 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 91 81 92 81 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 97 75 99 76 100 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 97 79 99 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 91 81 93 81 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 160907
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
407 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS THE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE NORTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY WHILE MUCH DRIER AIR OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD. A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL BE NEAR OR WEST OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE COASTAL BEND BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL
GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY AS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS DAMPENS OUT FOR MONDAY AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT LESS CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
TO EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. H5 RIDGING TO BE PRIMARY WEATHER
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING
MORE CENTERED OVER TX BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE PROGD TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND THUS AM GOING WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S NEARLY AREAWIDE...EXCEPT
FOR 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND AROUND 100 ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 96 80 97 79 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 96 76 96 76 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 99 79 102 79 102 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 98 77 99 76 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 91 81 92 81 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 97 75 99 76 100 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 97 79 99 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 91 81 93 81 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 160547 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTH TEXAS FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS DRIER AIR HAS MOVED BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE
COULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS OVER THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS AND LRD AREA AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CUMULUS
WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL BEND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS THE SEA-BREEZE PUSHES
FARTHER INLAND. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEUA...MEXICO...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH
AS WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES. A COUPLE OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
AS WELL AS GFS WERE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL AS FORCING IN THE
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA...WHERE PWATS
OF NEAR 2 INCHES STILL EXIST. HAVE INSERTED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA
ON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A 20 POP NOW FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE...BUT ONLY SILENT 10 POP
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES. WARM AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING AROUND SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH THIS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM NEAR DUE SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRIER. BY MID WEEK LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK
MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE INCONSISTENT. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN
DIFFERING ON DEVELOPING A CENTER OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ITS
PLACEMENT. WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
KEEPS MOISTURE CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. ECMWF
HOWEVER PLACES IT FURTHER NORTH IN MEXICO...THOUGH STILL SOUTH OF
THE REGION. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THIS FURTHER NORTH THOUGH...AND WITH
MODELS BEING SO INCONSISTENT...WENT AHEAD AND LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POPS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...MADE FEW CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 91 79 91 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 77 93 76 93 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 102 78 101 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 77 95 77 95 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 91 80 90 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 97 75 97 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 79 93 79 93 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 89 80 89 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
| 
