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000
FXUS64 KCRP 232337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW -SHRA`S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH 01-02Z...WITH LITTLE TO NO MAJOR AVIATION
IMPACTS ANTICPATED AT THIS TIME FOR LRD. MOISTURE IS MAINLY POOLED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WITH LESS MOISTURE FARTHER E THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LRD AND ALI TAF
SITES...THEN VFR BY MID MORNING ON WED. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CRP TAF SITE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VCT
AREA WILL LEAD TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS TRYING TO BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DRIEST AIR CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER VICTORIA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE DRIER AIR
WILL MAKE IT...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD FADE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PADRE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK
COASTAL TROUGHING OCCURS WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF OUR MARINE
AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD/DEVELOP WEST THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS /WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT/ WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WED WITH MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. CHANCES
OF PRECIP MAY BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED /BUT STILL LOW CHANCES/
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WED EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASES AHEAD OF A 50 KT H25 JET STREAK WITH H5 DPVA INCREASING.
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO NEGATE
THE LATTER TWO FACTORS...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS AS
STRONGER COASTAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR NE ZONES
DUE TO AN EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE IN SFC WINDS LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AND GENERALLY A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS
WED WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/S VALUES...EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A BROAD MID/UPR LOW CENTERED
ACROSS SW TX WL SLOWLY MOVE EWD BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL HELP
TO MAINTAIN A COASTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH WK SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE MID/UPR
LOW TO OUR WEST WL BE KEY FACTORS IN AIDING PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS 2-2.2 INCHES WL PREVAIL DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF CELLS WL ONCE AGAIN MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE CONVERGENCE WL BE THE
STRONGEST.  WL THUS GO WITH CHC TO LKLY POPS FOR THE CWA FOR THIS
TIME PD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WATER.  THE WEEKEND WL BE
THE TRANSITION TO A DRIER AIRMASS AS THE MID/UPR LOW BEGINS
ACCELERATING EWD AND ADVECTING DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE CWA.
MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE.  MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.  KEPT TEMPS BELOW CLIMO EARLY IN
THE FCST PD DUE TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND THICK CLOUD CVR.  WL
GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND CLOSE TO CLIMO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  88  71  86  73  /  10  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          66  89  67  88  71  /   0  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            72  90  72  88  72  /  10  20  20  20  40
ALICE             70  90  71  88  71  /  10  10  10  30  40
ROCKPORT          73  87  74  86  75  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           69  90  69  90  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        71  90  71  88  72  /  10  20  20  40  40
NAVY CORPUS       76  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW -SHRA`S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH 01-02Z...WITH LITTLE TO NO MAJOR AVIATION
IMPACTS ANTICPATED AT THIS TIME FOR LRD. MOISTURE IS MAINLY POOLED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WITH LESS MOISTURE FARTHER E THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LRD AND ALI TAF
SITES...THEN VFR BY MID MORNING ON WED. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CRP TAF SITE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VCT
AREA WILL LEAD TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS TRYING TO BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DRIEST AIR CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER VICTORIA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE DRIER AIR
WILL MAKE IT...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD FADE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PADRE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK
COASTAL TROUGHING OCCURS WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF OUR MARINE
AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD/DEVELOP WEST THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS /WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT/ WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WED WITH MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. CHANCES
OF PRECIP MAY BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED /BUT STILL LOW CHANCES/
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WED EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASES AHEAD OF A 50 KT H25 JET STREAK WITH H5 DPVA INCREASING.
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO NEGATE
THE LATTER TWO FACTORS...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS AS
STRONGER COASTAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR NE ZONES
DUE TO AN EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE IN SFC WINDS LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AND GENERALLY A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS
WED WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/S VALUES...EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A BROAD MID/UPR LOW CENTERED
ACROSS SW TX WL SLOWLY MOVE EWD BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL HELP
TO MAINTAIN A COASTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH WK SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE MID/UPR
LOW TO OUR WEST WL BE KEY FACTORS IN AIDING PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS 2-2.2 INCHES WL PREVAIL DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF CELLS WL ONCE AGAIN MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE CONVERGENCE WL BE THE
STRONGEST.  WL THUS GO WITH CHC TO LKLY POPS FOR THE CWA FOR THIS
TIME PD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WATER.  THE WEEKEND WL BE
THE TRANSITION TO A DRIER AIRMASS AS THE MID/UPR LOW BEGINS
ACCELERATING EWD AND ADVECTING DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE CWA.
MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE.  MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.  KEPT TEMPS BELOW CLIMO EARLY IN
THE FCST PD DUE TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND THICK CLOUD CVR.  WL
GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND CLOSE TO CLIMO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  88  71  86  73  /  10  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          66  89  67  88  71  /   0  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            72  90  72  88  72  /  10  20  20  20  40
ALICE             70  90  71  88  71  /  10  10  10  30  40
ROCKPORT          73  87  74  86  75  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           69  90  69  90  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        71  90  71  88  72  /  10  20  20  40  40
NAVY CORPUS       76  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 232012 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
312 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS TRYING TO BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DRIEST AIR CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER VICTORIA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE DRIER AIR
WILL MAKE IT...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD FADE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PADRE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK
COASTAL TROUGHING OCCURS WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF OUR MARINE
AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD/DEVELOP WEST THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS /WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT/ WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WED WITH MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. CHANCES
OF PRECIP MAY BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED /BUT STILL LOW CHANCES/
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WED EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASES AHEAD OF A 50 KT H25 JET STREAK WITH H5 DPVA INCREASING.
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO NEGATE
THE LATTER TWO FACTORS...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS AS
STRONGER COASTAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR NE ZONES
DUE TO AN EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE IN SFC WINDS LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AND GENERALLY A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS
WED WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/S VALUES...EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A BROAD MID/UPR LOW CENTERED
ACROSS SW TX WL SLOWLY MOVE EWD BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL HELP
TO MAINTAIN A COASTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH WK SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE MID/UPR
LOW TO OUR WEST WL BE KEY FACTORS IN AIDING PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS 2-2.2 INCHES WL PREVAIL DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF CELLS WL ONCE AGAIN MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE CONVERGENCE WL BE THE
STRONGEST.  WL THUS GO WITH CHC TO LKLY POPS FOR THE CWA FOR THIS
TIME PD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WATER.  THE WEEKEND WL BE
THE TRANSITION TO A DRIER AIRMASS AS THE MID/UPR LOW BEGINS
ACCELERATING EWD AND ADVECTING DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE CWA.
MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE.  MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.  KEPT TEMPS BELOW CLIMO EARLY IN
THE FCST PD DUE TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND THICK CLOUD CVR.  WL
GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND CLOSE TO CLIMO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  88  71  86  73  /  10  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          66  89  67  88  71  /   0  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            72  90  72  88  72  /  10  20  20  20  40
ALICE             70  90  71  88  71  /  10  10  10  30  40
ROCKPORT          73  87  74  86  75  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           69  90  69  90  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        71  90  71  88  72  /  10  20  20  40  40
NAVY CORPUS       76  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM









000
FXUS64 KCRP 232012 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
312 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS TRYING TO BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DRIEST AIR CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER VICTORIA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE DRIER AIR
WILL MAKE IT...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD FADE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PADRE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK
COASTAL TROUGHING OCCURS WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF OUR MARINE
AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD/DEVELOP WEST THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS /WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT/ WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WED WITH MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. CHANCES
OF PRECIP MAY BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED /BUT STILL LOW CHANCES/
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WED EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASES AHEAD OF A 50 KT H25 JET STREAK WITH H5 DPVA INCREASING.
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO NEGATE
THE LATTER TWO FACTORS...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS AS
STRONGER COASTAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR NE ZONES
DUE TO AN EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE IN SFC WINDS LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AND GENERALLY A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS
WED WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/S VALUES...EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A BROAD MID/UPR LOW CENTERED
ACROSS SW TX WL SLOWLY MOVE EWD BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL HELP
TO MAINTAIN A COASTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH WK SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE MID/UPR
LOW TO OUR WEST WL BE KEY FACTORS IN AIDING PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS 2-2.2 INCHES WL PREVAIL DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF CELLS WL ONCE AGAIN MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE CONVERGENCE WL BE THE
STRONGEST.  WL THUS GO WITH CHC TO LKLY POPS FOR THE CWA FOR THIS
TIME PD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WATER.  THE WEEKEND WL BE
THE TRANSITION TO A DRIER AIRMASS AS THE MID/UPR LOW BEGINS
ACCELERATING EWD AND ADVECTING DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE CWA.
MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE.  MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.  KEPT TEMPS BELOW CLIMO EARLY IN
THE FCST PD DUE TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND THICK CLOUD CVR.  WL
GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND CLOSE TO CLIMO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  88  71  86  73  /  10  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          66  89  67  88  71  /   0  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            72  90  72  88  72  /  10  20  20  20  40
ALICE             70  90  71  88  71  /  10  10  10  30  40
ROCKPORT          73  87  74  86  75  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           69  90  69  90  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        71  90  71  88  72  /  10  20  20  40  40
NAVY CORPUS       76  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 232011
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
311 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS TRYING TO BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DRIEST AIR CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER VICTORIA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE DRIER AIR
WILL MAKE IT...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD FADE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PADRE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK
COASTAL TROUGHING OCCURS WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF OUR MARINE
AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD/DEVELOP WEST THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS /WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT/ WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WED WITH MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. CHANCES
OF PRECIP MAY BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED /BUT STILL LOW CHANCES/
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WED EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASES AHEAD OF A 50 KT H25 JET STREAK WITH H5 DPVA INCREASING.
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO NEGATE
THE LATTER TWO FACTORS...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS AS
STRONGER COASTAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR NE ZONES
DUE TO AN EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE IN SFC WINDS LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AND GENERALLY A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS
WED WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/S VALUES...EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A BROAD MID/UPR LOW CENTERED
ACROSS SW TX WL SLOWLY MOVE EWD BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL HELP
TO MAINTAIN A COASTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH WK SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE MID/UPR
LOW TO OUR WEST WL BE KEY FACTORS IN AIDING PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS 2-2.2 INCHES WL PREVAIL DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF CELLS WL ONCE AGAIN MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE CONVERGENCE WL BE THE
STRONGEST.  WL THUS GO WITH CHC TO LKLY POPS FOR THE CWA FOR THIS
TIME PD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WATER.  THE WEEKEND WL BE
THE TRANSITION TO A DRIER AIRMASS AS THE MID/UPR LOW BEGINS
ACCELERATING EWD AND ADVECTING DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE CWA.
MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE.  MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.  KEPT TEMPS BELOW CLIMO EARLY IN
THE FCST PD DUE TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND THICK CLOUD CVR.  WL
GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND CLOSE TO CLIMO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  88  71  86  73  /  10  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          66  89  67  88  71  /   0  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            72  90  72  88  72  /  10  20  20  20  40
ALICE             70  90  71  88  71  /  10  10  10  30  40
ROCKPORT          73  87  74  86  75  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           69  90  69  90  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        71  90  71  88  72  /  10  10  20  40  40
NAVY CORPUS       76  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232011
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
311 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS TRYING TO BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DRIEST AIR CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER VICTORIA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE DRIER AIR
WILL MAKE IT...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD FADE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PADRE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK
COASTAL TROUGHING OCCURS WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF OUR MARINE
AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD/DEVELOP WEST THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS /WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT/ WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WED WITH MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. CHANCES
OF PRECIP MAY BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED /BUT STILL LOW CHANCES/
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WED EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASES AHEAD OF A 50 KT H25 JET STREAK WITH H5 DPVA INCREASING.
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO NEGATE
THE LATTER TWO FACTORS...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS AS
STRONGER COASTAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR NE ZONES
DUE TO AN EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE IN SFC WINDS LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AND GENERALLY A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS
WED WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/S VALUES...EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A BROAD MID/UPR LOW CENTERED
ACROSS SW TX WL SLOWLY MOVE EWD BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WL HELP
TO MAINTAIN A COASTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH WK SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE MID/UPR
LOW TO OUR WEST WL BE KEY FACTORS IN AIDING PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS 2-2.2 INCHES WL PREVAIL DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF CELLS WL ONCE AGAIN MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE CONVERGENCE WL BE THE
STRONGEST.  WL THUS GO WITH CHC TO LKLY POPS FOR THE CWA FOR THIS
TIME PD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WATER.  THE WEEKEND WL BE
THE TRANSITION TO A DRIER AIRMASS AS THE MID/UPR LOW BEGINS
ACCELERATING EWD AND ADVECTING DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE CWA.
MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE.  MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.  KEPT TEMPS BELOW CLIMO EARLY IN
THE FCST PD DUE TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND THICK CLOUD CVR.  WL
GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND CLOSE TO CLIMO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  88  71  86  73  /  10  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          66  89  67  88  71  /   0  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            72  90  72  88  72  /  10  20  20  20  40
ALICE             70  90  71  88  71  /  10  10  10  30  40
ROCKPORT          73  87  74  86  75  /  10  10  20  30  40
COTULLA           69  90  69  90  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        71  90  71  88  72  /  10  10  20  40  40
NAVY CORPUS       76  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 231734 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH VARIETY OF
FLIGHT RULES LATE TONIGHT/WED MRNG. DRIER AIRMASS IS TRYING TO
WORK SWWRD INTO S TX WITH KVCT TO ONLY EXPERIENCE PASSING CI NEXT 24
HRS. SCT CU FIELD WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WILL BE ACROSS KCRP THIS
AFTN BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. THICKER CU FIELD ACROSS
KLRD/KALI THIS AFTN...BUT CIGS GENERALLY AT VFR LEVELS.
OVERNIGHT...TAF FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR...SCT
LLVL CLOUD FIELD WITH CIGS AOA 2KFT AT KCRP...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS XPCTD
AT KALI...AND MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT KLRD. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE WED MRNG WITH ALL TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR
BY LATE MRNG. ERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTN BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  73  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          90  67  88  67  87  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            92  73  90  70  89  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             91  70  89  69  88  /  20  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          88  75  87  73  85  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           92  69  90  68  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  72  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  75  87  75  85  /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231734 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH VARIETY OF
FLIGHT RULES LATE TONIGHT/WED MRNG. DRIER AIRMASS IS TRYING TO
WORK SWWRD INTO S TX WITH KVCT TO ONLY EXPERIENCE PASSING CI NEXT 24
HRS. SCT CU FIELD WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WILL BE ACROSS KCRP THIS
AFTN BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. THICKER CU FIELD ACROSS
KLRD/KALI THIS AFTN...BUT CIGS GENERALLY AT VFR LEVELS.
OVERNIGHT...TAF FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES. UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR...SCT
LLVL CLOUD FIELD WITH CIGS AOA 2KFT AT KCRP...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS XPCTD
AT KALI...AND MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT KLRD. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE WED MRNG WITH ALL TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR
BY LATE MRNG. ERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTN BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  73  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          90  67  88  67  87  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            92  73  90  70  89  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             91  70  89  69  88  /  20  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          88  75  87  73  85  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           92  69  90  68  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  72  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  75  87  75  85  /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 231547 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1047 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD. INSTABILITY
IS PROG TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY WITH SBCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. GIVEN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLVL
CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
AROUND MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY/.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY TO TRIM
THEM FARTHER SOUTH. ALSO REDUCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS NE ZONES WHERE
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS IS MOVING IN...AND INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  73  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          90  67  88  67  87  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            92  73  90  70  89  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             91  70  89  69  88  /  20  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          88  75  87  73  85  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           92  69  90  68  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  72  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  75  87  75  85  /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 231547 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1047 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD. INSTABILITY
IS PROG TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY WITH SBCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. GIVEN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLVL
CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
AROUND MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY/.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY TO TRIM
THEM FARTHER SOUTH. ALSO REDUCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS NE ZONES WHERE
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS IS MOVING IN...AND INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  73  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          90  67  88  67  87  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            92  73  90  70  89  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             91  70  89  69  88  /  20  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          88  75  87  73  85  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           92  69  90  68  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  72  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  75  87  75  85  /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231113
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
613 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A WEAK DISSIPATING BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DECREASED VISBYS AT ALI AND
VCT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT BEYOND THAT...JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR VCT...ALI...LRD TAF SITES...BUT TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOTED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS INLAND HAVE
BEEN SHORT LIVED AS MOIST LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW. IN MARINE
AREAS...DEEPER MOIST LAYER HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE EXPANDED 20 POPS A BIT AS ONGOING CONVECTION
INDICATES ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE DONE WITH CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST
ZONES. SLIGHT CHANCES DURING TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE INDICATES A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT LEVELS OF CLOUDS
CREATING SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT MID LEVEL DECK TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...BTU WILL
LIKELY KEEP SCT HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COMES WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ENCROACHES ON THE
AREA. SOME MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA...BUT OTHERS BRING QPF INTO SOUTHERN ZONES WITH 2
INCH PWATS. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR NOW FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 89-90 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE BREAKING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE STATE. REGARDLESS...COMBINATION OF UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE WEEKEND...EJECTING SYSTEM OVER TEXAS TO THE NNE. GFS
MOVES THE SYSTEM OUT QUICKER THAN THE SLOWER EUROPEAN...WHICH WILL
AFFECT RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS IS REACHED. BY SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE (EXCEPT OVER THE WATERS) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  73  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          90  67  88  67  87  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            92  73  90  70  89  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             91  70  89  69  88  /  20  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          88  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           92  69  90  68  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  72  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  75  87  75  85  /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 231113
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
613 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A WEAK DISSIPATING BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DECREASED VISBYS AT ALI AND
VCT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT BEYOND THAT...JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR VCT...ALI...LRD TAF SITES...BUT TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOTED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS INLAND HAVE
BEEN SHORT LIVED AS MOIST LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW. IN MARINE
AREAS...DEEPER MOIST LAYER HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE EXPANDED 20 POPS A BIT AS ONGOING CONVECTION
INDICATES ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE DONE WITH CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST
ZONES. SLIGHT CHANCES DURING TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE INDICATES A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT LEVELS OF CLOUDS
CREATING SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT MID LEVEL DECK TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...BTU WILL
LIKELY KEEP SCT HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COMES WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ENCROACHES ON THE
AREA. SOME MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA...BUT OTHERS BRING QPF INTO SOUTHERN ZONES WITH 2
INCH PWATS. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR NOW FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 89-90 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE BREAKING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE STATE. REGARDLESS...COMBINATION OF UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE WEEKEND...EJECTING SYSTEM OVER TEXAS TO THE NNE. GFS
MOVES THE SYSTEM OUT QUICKER THAN THE SLOWER EUROPEAN...WHICH WILL
AFFECT RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS IS REACHED. BY SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE (EXCEPT OVER THE WATERS) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  73  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          90  67  88  67  87  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            92  73  90  70  89  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             91  70  89  69  88  /  20  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          88  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           92  69  90  68  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  72  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  75  87  75  85  /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 230909
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
409 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOTED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS INLAND HAVE
BEEN SHORT LIVED AS MOIST LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW. IN MARINE
AREAS...DEEPER MOIST LAYER HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE EXPANDED 20 POPS A BIT AS ONGOING CONVECTION
INDICATES ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE DONE WITH CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST
ZONES. SLIGHT CHANCES DURING TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE INDICATES A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT LEVELS OF CLOUDS
CREATING SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT MID LEVEL DECK TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...BTU WILL
LIKELY KEEP SCT HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COMES WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ENCROACHES ON THE
AREA. SOME MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA...BUT OTHERS BRING QPF INTO SOUTHERN ZONES WITH 2
INCH PWATS. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR NOW FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 89-90 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE BREAKING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE STATE. REGARDLESS...COMBINATION OF UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE WEEKEND...EJECTING SYSTEM OVER TEXAS TO THE NNE. GFS
MOVES THE SYSTEM OUT QUICKER THAN THE SLOWER EUROPEAN...WHICH WILL
AFFECT RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS IS REACHED. BY SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE (EXCEPT OVER THE WATERS) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  73  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          90  67  88  67  87  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            92  73  90  70  89  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             91  70  89  69  88  /  20  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          88  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           92  69  90  68  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  72  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  75  87  75  85  /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 230909
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
409 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOTED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS INLAND HAVE
BEEN SHORT LIVED AS MOIST LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW. IN MARINE
AREAS...DEEPER MOIST LAYER HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE EXPANDED 20 POPS A BIT AS ONGOING CONVECTION
INDICATES ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE DONE WITH CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST
ZONES. SLIGHT CHANCES DURING TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE INDICATES A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT LEVELS OF CLOUDS
CREATING SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT MID LEVEL DECK TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...BTU WILL
LIKELY KEEP SCT HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COMES WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ENCROACHES ON THE
AREA. SOME MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA...BUT OTHERS BRING QPF INTO SOUTHERN ZONES WITH 2
INCH PWATS. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR NOW FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 89-90 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE BREAKING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE STATE. REGARDLESS...COMBINATION OF UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE WEEKEND...EJECTING SYSTEM OVER TEXAS TO THE NNE. GFS
MOVES THE SYSTEM OUT QUICKER THAN THE SLOWER EUROPEAN...WHICH WILL
AFFECT RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS IS REACHED. BY SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE (EXCEPT OVER THE WATERS) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  73  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          90  67  88  67  87  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            92  73  90  70  89  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             91  70  89  69  88  /  20  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          88  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           92  69  90  68  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  72  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  75  87  75  85  /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 230541
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1241 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPADTED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOALTED TO SCT SH AND A COUPLE OF TSRA STILL NOTED
FROM VCT TAF SITE EAST TO THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH
AND WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BETWEEN VCT AND CRP SITE...BUT
MAINLY STAYING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES. VCT COULD SEE A
BRIEF SHOWER. A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER DURING THE DAY..BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THICKENING CU JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY STILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHERN AND PERHAPS EASTERN ZONES BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES. BY LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS PROG TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MARINE/COASTAL ZONES...AS REMNANTS OF
SURFACE FRONT DRIFT INTO THE REGION AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING
DEVELOPS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE.
FOR TUESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH MOISTURE DEPTH PROG TO BE THE GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. THUS...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP MENTIONED FOR SAID AREAS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES GIVEN GREATER
MOISTURE DEPTH. MAX TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TODAY DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND E/NE FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE MUCH COOLER GIVEN DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
PUSH...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL NOT GO OVERLY COOL FOR MIN TEMPS JUST
YET.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH
AN AREA OF WEAKNESS/POSSIBLE CUTOFF LOWS FORMING UNDERNEATH IT AND
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE STATE.  DURING THIS TIME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN FILTERING INTO MORE OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND INLAND. INCREASED
SPREAD OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH WITH MODELS STILL
TREATING THE PLACEMENT OF UPPER WEAKNESS AND TIMING DIFFERENTLY
BETWEEN RUNS. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO END UP RAISING POPS IN THE NEXT
FEW RUNS AS MODELS COME TO MORE OF A CONSENSUS. BY SUNDAY...LOW WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  73  87  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          90  66  87  67  87  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            93  73  89  70  89  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             91  72  88  69  88  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          89  76  86  73  85  /  20  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           92  70  89  68  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  72  88  70  87  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       89  77  86  75  85  /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 230541
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1241 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPADTED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOALTED TO SCT SH AND A COUPLE OF TSRA STILL NOTED
FROM VCT TAF SITE EAST TO THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH
AND WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BETWEEN VCT AND CRP SITE...BUT
MAINLY STAYING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES. VCT COULD SEE A
BRIEF SHOWER. A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER DURING THE DAY..BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THICKENING CU JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY STILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHERN AND PERHAPS EASTERN ZONES BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES. BY LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS PROG TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MARINE/COASTAL ZONES...AS REMNANTS OF
SURFACE FRONT DRIFT INTO THE REGION AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING
DEVELOPS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE.
FOR TUESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH MOISTURE DEPTH PROG TO BE THE GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. THUS...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP MENTIONED FOR SAID AREAS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES GIVEN GREATER
MOISTURE DEPTH. MAX TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TODAY DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND E/NE FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE MUCH COOLER GIVEN DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
PUSH...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL NOT GO OVERLY COOL FOR MIN TEMPS JUST
YET.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH
AN AREA OF WEAKNESS/POSSIBLE CUTOFF LOWS FORMING UNDERNEATH IT AND
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE STATE.  DURING THIS TIME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN FILTERING INTO MORE OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND INLAND. INCREASED
SPREAD OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH WITH MODELS STILL
TREATING THE PLACEMENT OF UPPER WEAKNESS AND TIMING DIFFERENTLY
BETWEEN RUNS. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO END UP RAISING POPS IN THE NEXT
FEW RUNS AS MODELS COME TO MORE OF A CONSENSUS. BY SUNDAY...LOW WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  73  87  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          90  66  87  67  87  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            93  73  89  70  89  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             91  72  88  69  88  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          89  76  86  73  85  /  20  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           92  70  89  68  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  72  88  70  87  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       89  77  86  75  85  /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 222314
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW WEAK SHRA`S MOVG SW INTO THE VCT AREA SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEREFORE
HAVE ONLY A MENTION OF VCSH IN VCT TAF THROUGH 02Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE WHEN LIGHT PATCHY
FOG DVLPS FROM ALI TO VCT BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THICKENING CU JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY STILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHERN AND PERHAPS EASTERN ZONES BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES. BY LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS PROG TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MARINE/COASTAL ZONES...AS REMNANTS OF
SURFACE FRONT DRIFT INTO THE REGION AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING
DEVELOPS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE.
FOR TUESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH MOISTURE DEPTH PROG TO BE THE GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. THUS...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP MENTIONED FOR SAID AREAS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES GIVEN GREATER
MOISTURE DEPTH. MAX TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TODAY DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND E/NE FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE MUCH COOLER GIVEN DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
PUSH...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL NOT GO OVERLY COOL FOR MIN TEMPS JUST
YET.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH
AN AREA OF WEAKNESS/POSSIBLE CUTOFF LOWS FORMING UNDERNEATH IT AND
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE STATE.  DURING THIS TIME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN FILTERING INTO MORE OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND INLAND. INCREASED
SPREAD OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH WITH MODELS STILL
TREATING THE PLACEMENT OF UPPER WEAKNESS AND TIMING DIFFERENTLY
BETWEEN RUNS. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO END UP RAISING POPS IN THE NEXT
FEW RUNS AS MODELS COME TO MORE OF A CONSENSUS. BY SUNDAY...LOW WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  89  73  87  70  /  10  20  10  20  20
VICTORIA          69  90  66  87  67  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  93  73  89  70  /  10  20  10  20  20
ALICE             73  91  72  88  69  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  89  76  86  73  /  10  20  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  92  70  89  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  91  72  88  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  77  86  75  /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 222314
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW WEAK SHRA`S MOVG SW INTO THE VCT AREA SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEREFORE
HAVE ONLY A MENTION OF VCSH IN VCT TAF THROUGH 02Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE WHEN LIGHT PATCHY
FOG DVLPS FROM ALI TO VCT BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THICKENING CU JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY STILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHERN AND PERHAPS EASTERN ZONES BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES. BY LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS PROG TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MARINE/COASTAL ZONES...AS REMNANTS OF
SURFACE FRONT DRIFT INTO THE REGION AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING
DEVELOPS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE.
FOR TUESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH MOISTURE DEPTH PROG TO BE THE GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. THUS...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP MENTIONED FOR SAID AREAS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES GIVEN GREATER
MOISTURE DEPTH. MAX TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TODAY DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND E/NE FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE MUCH COOLER GIVEN DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
PUSH...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL NOT GO OVERLY COOL FOR MIN TEMPS JUST
YET.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH
AN AREA OF WEAKNESS/POSSIBLE CUTOFF LOWS FORMING UNDERNEATH IT AND
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE STATE.  DURING THIS TIME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN FILTERING INTO MORE OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND INLAND. INCREASED
SPREAD OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH WITH MODELS STILL
TREATING THE PLACEMENT OF UPPER WEAKNESS AND TIMING DIFFERENTLY
BETWEEN RUNS. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO END UP RAISING POPS IN THE NEXT
FEW RUNS AS MODELS COME TO MORE OF A CONSENSUS. BY SUNDAY...LOW WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  89  73  87  70  /  10  20  10  20  20
VICTORIA          69  90  66  87  67  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  93  73  89  70  /  10  20  10  20  20
ALICE             73  91  72  88  69  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  89  76  86  73  /  10  20  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  92  70  89  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  91  72  88  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  77  86  75  /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 222047 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
347 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THICKENING CU JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY STILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHERN AND PERHAPS EASTERN ZONES BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES. BY LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS PROG TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MARINE/COASTAL ZONES...AS REMNANTS OF
SURFACE FRONT DRIFT INTO THE REGION AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING
DEVELOPS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE.
FOR TUESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH MOISTURE DEPTH PROG TO BE THE GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. THUS...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP MENTIONED FOR SAID AREAS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES GIVEN GREATER
MOISTURE DEPTH. MAX TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TODAY DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND E/NE FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE MUCH COOLER GIVEN DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
PUSH...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL NOT GO OVERLY COOL FOR MIN TEMPS JUST
YET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH
AN AREA OF WEAKNESS/POSSIBLE CUTOFF LOWS FORMING UNDERNEATH IT AND
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE STATE.  DURING THIS TIME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN FILTERING INTO MORE OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND INLAND. INCREASED
SPREAD OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH WITH MODELS STILL
TREATING THE PLACEMENT OF UPPER WEAKNESS AND TIMING DIFFERENTLY
BETWEEN RUNS. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO END UP RAISING POPS IN THE NEXT
FEW RUNS AS MODELS COME TO MORE OF A CONSENSUS. BY SUNDAY...LOW WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  89  73  87  70  /  10  20  10  20  20
VICTORIA          69  90  66  87  67  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  93  73  89  70  /  10  20  10  20  20
ALICE             73  91  72  88  69  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  89  76  86  73  /  10  20  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  92  70  89  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  91  72  88  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  77  86  75  /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 222045
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
345 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THSI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THICKENING CU JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY STILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHERN AND PERHAPS EASTERN ZONES BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING
COMMENSES. BY LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS PROG TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MARINE/COASTAL ZONES...AS REMNANTS OF
SURFACE FRONT DRIFT INTO THE REGION AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING
DEVELOPS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE.
FOR TUESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH MOISTURE DEPTH PROG TO BE THE GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. THUS...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP MENTIONED FOR SAID AREAS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES GIVEN GREATER
MOISTURE DEPTH. MAX TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TODAY DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND E/NE FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE MUCH COOLER GIVEN DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
PUSH...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL NOT GO OVERLY COOL FOR MIN TEMPS JUST
YET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH
AN AREA OF WEAKNESS/POSSIBLE CUTOFF LOWS FORMING UNDERNEATH IT AND
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE STATE.  DURING THIS TIME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN FILTERING INTO MORE OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND INLAND. INCREASED
SPREAD OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH WITH MODELS STILL
TREATING THE PLACEMENT OF UPPER WEAKNESS AND TIMING DIFFERENTLY
BETWEEN RUNS. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO END UP RAISING POPS IN THE NEXT
FEW RUNS AS MODELS COME TO MORE OF A CONSENSUS. BY SUNDAY...LOW WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  89  73  87  70  /  10  20  10  20  20
VICTORIA          69  90  66  87  67  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  93  73  89  70  /  10  20  10  20  20
ALICE             73  91  72  88  69  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  89  76  86  73  /  10  20  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  92  70  89  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  91  72  88  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  77  86  75  /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 222045
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
345 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THSI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THICKENING CU JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY STILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHERN AND PERHAPS EASTERN ZONES BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING
COMMENSES. BY LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS PROG TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MARINE/COASTAL ZONES...AS REMNANTS OF
SURFACE FRONT DRIFT INTO THE REGION AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING
DEVELOPS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE.
FOR TUESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH MOISTURE DEPTH PROG TO BE THE GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. THUS...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP MENTIONED FOR SAID AREAS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES GIVEN GREATER
MOISTURE DEPTH. MAX TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TODAY DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND E/NE FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE MUCH COOLER GIVEN DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
PUSH...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL NOT GO OVERLY COOL FOR MIN TEMPS JUST
YET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH
AN AREA OF WEAKNESS/POSSIBLE CUTOFF LOWS FORMING UNDERNEATH IT AND
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE STATE.  DURING THIS TIME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN FILTERING INTO MORE OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND INLAND. INCREASED
SPREAD OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH WITH MODELS STILL
TREATING THE PLACEMENT OF UPPER WEAKNESS AND TIMING DIFFERENTLY
BETWEEN RUNS. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO END UP RAISING POPS IN THE NEXT
FEW RUNS AS MODELS COME TO MORE OF A CONSENSUS. BY SUNDAY...LOW WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  89  73  87  70  /  10  20  10  20  20
VICTORIA          69  90  66  87  67  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  93  73  89  70  /  10  20  10  20  20
ALICE             73  91  72  88  69  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  89  76  86  73  /  10  20  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  92  70  89  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  91  72  88  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  77  86  75  /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221738 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR MAJORITY OF NEXT 24 HRS. SCT CU FIELD
CURRENTLY DVLPNG ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE CIGS AT VFR LEVELS.
ISO SHRA MAY DVLP LATE THIS AFTN WITH GREATEST CHANCES LOCATED
NEAR KVCT...AND THUS HAVE VCSH FOR SAID TERMINAL.
ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. SHRA/CU
FIELD WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR PREVAILING MOST
OF TONIGHT. BRIEF OPPORTUNITY OF MVFR VSBYS AT KALI LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUES MRNG. ADDITIONAL CU FIELD TO DVLP THRU THE MRNG
ON TUES WITH ADDITIONAL ISO SHRA ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AGAIN
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. ENE WINDS THIS AFTN 10 TO
15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO 5 TO 10
KTS FROM THE E DRNG THE MRNG TUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  74  90  73  87  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          94  71  90  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  73  92  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  72  91  71  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           93  72  92  70  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        93  73  90  72  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       90  76  88  77  85  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 221738 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR MAJORITY OF NEXT 24 HRS. SCT CU FIELD
CURRENTLY DVLPNG ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE CIGS AT VFR LEVELS.
ISO SHRA MAY DVLP LATE THIS AFTN WITH GREATEST CHANCES LOCATED
NEAR KVCT...AND THUS HAVE VCSH FOR SAID TERMINAL.
ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. SHRA/CU
FIELD WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR PREVAILING MOST
OF TONIGHT. BRIEF OPPORTUNITY OF MVFR VSBYS AT KALI LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUES MRNG. ADDITIONAL CU FIELD TO DVLP THRU THE MRNG
ON TUES WITH ADDITIONAL ISO SHRA ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AGAIN
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. ENE WINDS THIS AFTN 10 TO
15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO 5 TO 10
KTS FROM THE E DRNG THE MRNG TUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  74  90  73  87  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          94  71  90  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  73  92  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  72  91  71  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           93  72  92  70  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        93  73  90  72  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       90  76  88  77  85  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221610 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1110 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY INDICATES PWAT VALUES ARE
RECOVERING THIS MORNING WITH A MINOR TO MODERATE CU FIELD
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAINS. LATEST AVAILABLE 4KM WRF OUTPUT FROM TTU WANTS TO DEVELOP
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 18Z WITH LESSER COVERAGE
PRODUCED BY HRRR. GIVEN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE...WILL
INTRODUCE A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  74  90  73  87  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          94  71  90  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  73  92  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  72  91  71  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           93  72  92  70  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        93  73  90  72  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       90  76  88  77  85  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 221610 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1110 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY INDICATES PWAT VALUES ARE
RECOVERING THIS MORNING WITH A MINOR TO MODERATE CU FIELD
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAINS. LATEST AVAILABLE 4KM WRF OUTPUT FROM TTU WANTS TO DEVELOP
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 18Z WITH LESSER COVERAGE
PRODUCED BY HRRR. GIVEN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE...WILL
INTRODUCE A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  74  90  73  87  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          94  71  90  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  73  92  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  72  91  71  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           93  72  92  70  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        93  73  90  72  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       90  76  88  77  85  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221123
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
623 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG HASNT BEEN AN ISSUE SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT
COULD STILL SEE VISIBILITIES DROP BRIEFLY AT ANY SITE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA SHOULD
BRING FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP IS VERY SMALL. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A
BIT HIGHER MOISTURE...AROUND 1.75 INCH...REMAINS IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...BUT SHOULD DECREASE LATER TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.
SOME MODELS DO PROG A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THESE SAME
MODELS INDICATE PRECIP FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AT THE CURRENT
TIME...AND THIS IS NOT OCCURRING. BY TUESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY
RETURN TO MARINE AREAS TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS. IF THIS
OCCURS...SOME SHOWERS MAY STREAM INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS AS OLD
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN A BIT AS WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN FLOW ALOFT. EASTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL RESUME ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE INCREASE IN LIFT
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 20/30 POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT
WAS NOT WILLING TO GO AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS ALSO
SHOWS A DECENT SPREAD IN POPS AS WELL. WILL WAIT TIL A BETTER
CONSENSUS IS REACHED BEFORE RAISING POPS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND (EXCEPT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE) AS UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR AT SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  74  90  73  87  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          94  71  90  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  73  92  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  72  91  71  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           93  72  92  70  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        93  73  90  72  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       90  76  88  77  85  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 221123
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
623 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG HASNT BEEN AN ISSUE SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT
COULD STILL SEE VISIBILITIES DROP BRIEFLY AT ANY SITE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA SHOULD
BRING FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP IS VERY SMALL. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A
BIT HIGHER MOISTURE...AROUND 1.75 INCH...REMAINS IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...BUT SHOULD DECREASE LATER TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.
SOME MODELS DO PROG A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THESE SAME
MODELS INDICATE PRECIP FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AT THE CURRENT
TIME...AND THIS IS NOT OCCURRING. BY TUESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY
RETURN TO MARINE AREAS TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS. IF THIS
OCCURS...SOME SHOWERS MAY STREAM INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS AS OLD
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN A BIT AS WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN FLOW ALOFT. EASTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL RESUME ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE INCREASE IN LIFT
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 20/30 POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT
WAS NOT WILLING TO GO AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS ALSO
SHOWS A DECENT SPREAD IN POPS AS WELL. WILL WAIT TIL A BETTER
CONSENSUS IS REACHED BEFORE RAISING POPS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND (EXCEPT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE) AS UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR AT SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  74  90  73  87  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          94  71  90  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  73  92  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  72  91  71  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           93  72  92  70  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        93  73  90  72  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       90  76  88  77  85  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 220903
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
403 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A
BIT HIGHER MOISTURE...AROUND 1.75 INCH...REMAINS IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...BUT SHOULD DECREASE LATER TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.
SOME MODELS DO PROG A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THESE SAME
MODELS INDICATE PRECIP FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AT THE CURRENT
TIME...AND THIS IS NOT OCCURRING. BY TUESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY
RETURN TO MARINE AREAS TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS. IF THIS
OCCURS...SOME SHOWERS MAY STREAM INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS AS OLD
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN A BIT AS WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN FLOW ALOFT. EASTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL RESUME ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE INCREASE IN LIFT
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 20/30 POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT
WAS NOT WILLING TO GO AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS ALSO
SHOWS A DECENT SPREAD IN POPS AS WELL. WILL WAIT TIL A BETTER
CONSENSUS IS REACHED BEFORE RAISING POPS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND (EXCEPT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE) AS UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR AT SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  74  90  73  87  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          94  71  90  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  73  92  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  72  91  71  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           93  72  92  70  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        93  73  90  72  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       90  76  88  77  85  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TT/89...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 220903
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
403 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A
BIT HIGHER MOISTURE...AROUND 1.75 INCH...REMAINS IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...BUT SHOULD DECREASE LATER TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.
SOME MODELS DO PROG A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THESE SAME
MODELS INDICATE PRECIP FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AT THE CURRENT
TIME...AND THIS IS NOT OCCURRING. BY TUESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY
RETURN TO MARINE AREAS TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS. IF THIS
OCCURS...SOME SHOWERS MAY STREAM INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS AS OLD
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN A BIT AS WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN FLOW ALOFT. EASTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL RESUME ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE INCREASE IN LIFT
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 20/30 POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT
WAS NOT WILLING TO GO AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS ALSO
SHOWS A DECENT SPREAD IN POPS AS WELL. WILL WAIT TIL A BETTER
CONSENSUS IS REACHED BEFORE RAISING POPS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND (EXCEPT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE) AS UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR AT SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  74  90  73  87  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          94  71  90  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  73  92  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  72  91  71  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           93  72  92  70  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        93  73  90  72  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       90  76  88  77  85  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TT/89...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 220241
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
941 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NE. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING HAD A
PWAT OF 1.76 INCHES DOWN FROM 2.48 INCHES THIS MORNING. THE LOWER
PWATS/DRIER AIRMASS CAN BE SEEN VIA GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY MOVG INTO
S TX THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAIN ISSUE NOW ARE THE WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM 15
TO 20KT BUT AT TIMES AROUND 20KTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A GRADUAL
DECREASING TREND OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE NOT RE-ISSUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THOUGH...DUE TO
MODELS FCSTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WATERS WITH 925MB
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND 850MB WINDS AROUND 30KTS. ALSO THE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS HAVE INCREASED TO 8 SEC AT BUOYS 019 AND 020. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NE WINDS AND SWELLS PUT THE RIP CURRENT RISK AT
THE HIGH END OF MODERATE. ALSO...THE TIDE LEVELS MAY INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.7 FT ABV MSL AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COULD LEAD TO
WATER RUNNING UP TO THE DUNES AT SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE BEACH.
OVERALL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IF THE
WINDS HOLD STEADY OR ESPECIALLY IF THEY INCREASE...SCA`S...MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW AND RIP CURRENT RISK WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF LAREDO FOR
ANOTHER HOUR. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FINALLY
BUILDS WESTWARD BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM
OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY 09-10Z WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS
AFFECTING THE LRD AREA. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR COASTAL SITES...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH THE RAINS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF
FOG FORMING OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS FROM 09-14Z PROVIDING
MVFR VSBYS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE IFR VSBYS. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...GOES IMAGERY
INDICATES SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SE TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF /ALSO EVIDENT BY
ARC CLOUDS ON VIS IMAGERY/. GUIDANCE PROGS THIS DRIER AIRMASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.1
TO 1.3 INCHES. THUS...CLEARING SKIES /AFTER EARLY EVENING SCT
CONVECTION DISSIPATES/ AND SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE FEELING
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION. PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO EWX CWA FOR MOST OF MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW LIGHT PBL WIND FIELD
BECOMES...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MET/MAV BLEND. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY ARE ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND /DUE
TO HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE VALUES AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF GULF/ AND ON
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS NE ZONES. WENT WITH A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MON NIGHT MINS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED SLIGHT
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH CWA. GFS/ECM/NAM ALL SUGGESTING
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A
TONGUE OF ELEVATED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND A MID LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GFS
ENSEMBLES MEAN RH OUTPUT IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE...WHICH
SREF A MAJOR OUTLIER DRYING THINGS OUT WAY MORE THAN ALL OF THE
OTHER MODELS...SO WILL GENERALLY DISREGARD IT.  MAJORLY DRY
MIDLEVELS MAY OR MAY NOT COME INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SUGGESTING DECENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AND VERY LOW MOISTURE VALUES  TO THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO MIDLEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DRY AIR INTO TEXAS. THIS SITUATION
APPEARS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE
REALLY SEEMS TO BE NO CONSENSUS EXACTLY WHERE THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL END UP POSITIONING ITSELF ON ANY GIVEN DAY. SUBTROPICAL JET MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECM DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SUGGESTING THIS...BUT HARD TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL BE
UNDER THE CONVERGENT OR DIVERGENT QUADRANT AT THIS POINT DUE TO
DIFFERING POSITIONS OF THE JET AXIS. WEAK RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH RETURN
FLOW DUE TO WEAKNESS OF THE LEE TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES
SUPPRESSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EITHER WAY...WPC FORECAST KEEPS
STALLED OUT BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ALBEIT SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THIS MOISTURE PURGATORY WILL
PROBABLY BECOME DECISIVELY MOISTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WRAPS AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
ECONUS HIGH. ECM AND DGEX ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING IT INTO A CLOSED LOW...WITH GFS MERELY SUGGESTING AN OPEN
TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. BY MONDAY
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUMP
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AGAIN AND KILL POPS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...DUE TO THE FINICKY NATURE OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT
FOR BAYS AND WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT TO 60 NM.
MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN MODERATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  90  74  89  74  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          69  93  70  89  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  95  75  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             72  93  72  91  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  90  76  88  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           72  93  72  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  92  73  90  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  89  77  88  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 212334 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF LAREDO FOR
ANOTHER HOUR. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FINALLY
BUILDS WESTWARD BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM
OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY 09-10Z WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS
AFFECTING THE LRD AREA. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR COASTAL SITES...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH THE RAINS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF
FOG FORMING OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS FROM 09-14Z PROVIDING
MVFR VSBYS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE IFR VSBYS. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...GOES IMAGERY
INDICATES SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SE TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF /ALSO EVIDENT BY
ARC CLOUDS ON VIS IMAGERY/. GUIDANCE PROGS THIS DRIER AIRMASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.1
TO 1.3 INCHES. THUS...CLEARING SKIES /AFTER EARLY EVENING SCT
CONVECTION DISSIPATES/ AND SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE FEELING
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION. PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO EWX CWA FOR MOST OF MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW LIGHT PBL WIND FIELD
BECOMES...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MET/MAV BLEND. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY ARE ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND /DUE
TO HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE VALUES AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF GULF/ AND ON
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS NE ZONES. WENT WITH A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MON NIGHT MINS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED SLIGHT
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH CWA. GFS/ECM/NAM ALL SUGGESTING
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A
TONGUE OF ELEVATED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND A MID LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GFS
ENSEMBLES MEAN RH OUTPUT IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE...WHICH
SREF A MAJOR OUTLIER DRYING THINGS OUT WAY MORE THAN ALL OF THE
OTHER MODELS...SO WILL GENERALLY DISREGARD IT.  MAJORLY DRY
MIDLEVELS MAY OR MAY NOT COME INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SUGGESTING DECENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AND VERY LOW MOISTURE VALUES  TO THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO MIDLEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DRY AIR INTO TEXAS. THIS SITUATION
APPEARS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE
REALLY SEEMS TO BE NO CONSENSUS EXACTLY WHERE THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL END UP POSITIONING ITSELF ON ANY GIVEN DAY. SUBTROPICAL JET MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECM DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SUGGESTING THIS...BUT HARD TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL BE
UNDER THE CONVERGENT OR DIVERGENT QUADRANT AT THIS POINT DUE TO
DIFFERING POSITIONS OF THE JET AXIS. WEAK RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH RETURN
FLOW DUE TO WEAKNESS OF THE LEE TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES
SUPPRESSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EITHER WAY...WPC FORECAST KEEPS
STALLED OUT BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ALBEIT SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THIS MOISTURE PURGATORY WILL
PROBABLY BECOME DECISIVELY MOISTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WRAPS AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
ECONUS HIGH. ECM AND DGEX ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING IT INTO A CLOSED LOW...WITH GFS MERELY SUGGESTING AN OPEN
TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. BY MONDAY
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUMP
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AGAIN AND KILL POPS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...DUE TO THE FINICKY NATURE OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT
FOR BAYS AND WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT TO 60 NM.
MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN MODERATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  90  74  89  74  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          69  93  70  89  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  95  75  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             72  93  72  91  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  90  76  88  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           72  93  72  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  92  73  90  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  89  77  88  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 212334 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF LAREDO FOR
ANOTHER HOUR. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FINALLY
BUILDS WESTWARD BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM
OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY 09-10Z WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS
AFFECTING THE LRD AREA. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR COASTAL SITES...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH THE RAINS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF
FOG FORMING OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS FROM 09-14Z PROVIDING
MVFR VSBYS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE IFR VSBYS. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...GOES IMAGERY
INDICATES SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SE TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF /ALSO EVIDENT BY
ARC CLOUDS ON VIS IMAGERY/. GUIDANCE PROGS THIS DRIER AIRMASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.1
TO 1.3 INCHES. THUS...CLEARING SKIES /AFTER EARLY EVENING SCT
CONVECTION DISSIPATES/ AND SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE FEELING
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION. PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO EWX CWA FOR MOST OF MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW LIGHT PBL WIND FIELD
BECOMES...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MET/MAV BLEND. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY ARE ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND /DUE
TO HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE VALUES AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF GULF/ AND ON
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS NE ZONES. WENT WITH A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MON NIGHT MINS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED SLIGHT
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH CWA. GFS/ECM/NAM ALL SUGGESTING
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A
TONGUE OF ELEVATED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND A MID LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GFS
ENSEMBLES MEAN RH OUTPUT IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE...WHICH
SREF A MAJOR OUTLIER DRYING THINGS OUT WAY MORE THAN ALL OF THE
OTHER MODELS...SO WILL GENERALLY DISREGARD IT.  MAJORLY DRY
MIDLEVELS MAY OR MAY NOT COME INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SUGGESTING DECENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AND VERY LOW MOISTURE VALUES  TO THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO MIDLEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DRY AIR INTO TEXAS. THIS SITUATION
APPEARS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE
REALLY SEEMS TO BE NO CONSENSUS EXACTLY WHERE THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL END UP POSITIONING ITSELF ON ANY GIVEN DAY. SUBTROPICAL JET MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECM DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SUGGESTING THIS...BUT HARD TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL BE
UNDER THE CONVERGENT OR DIVERGENT QUADRANT AT THIS POINT DUE TO
DIFFERING POSITIONS OF THE JET AXIS. WEAK RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH RETURN
FLOW DUE TO WEAKNESS OF THE LEE TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES
SUPPRESSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EITHER WAY...WPC FORECAST KEEPS
STALLED OUT BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ALBEIT SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THIS MOISTURE PURGATORY WILL
PROBABLY BECOME DECISIVELY MOISTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WRAPS AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
ECONUS HIGH. ECM AND DGEX ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING IT INTO A CLOSED LOW...WITH GFS MERELY SUGGESTING AN OPEN
TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. BY MONDAY
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUMP
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AGAIN AND KILL POPS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...DUE TO THE FINICKY NATURE OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT
FOR BAYS AND WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT TO 60 NM.
MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN MODERATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  90  74  89  74  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          69  93  70  89  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  95  75  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             72  93  72  91  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  90  76  88  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           72  93  72  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  92  73  90  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  89  77  88  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 212039
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
339 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...GOES IMAGERY
INDICATES SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SE TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF /ALSO EVIDENT BY
ARC CLOUDS ON VIS IMAGERY/. GUIDANCE PROGS THIS DRIER AIRMASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.1
TO 1.3 INCHES. THUS...CLEARING SKIES /AFTER EARLY EVENING SCT
CONVECTION DISSIPATES/ AND SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE FEELING
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION. PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO EWX CWA FOR MOST OF MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW LIGHT PBL WIND FIELD
BECOMES...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MET/MAV BLEND. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY ARE ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND /DUE
TO HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE VALUES AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF GULF/ AND ON
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS NE ZONES. WENT WITH A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MON NIGHT MINS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED SLIGHT
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH CWA. GFS/ECM/NAM ALL SUGGESTING
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A
TONGUE OF ELEVATED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND A MID LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GFS
ENSEMBLES MEAN RH OUTPUT IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE...WHICH
SREF A MAJOR OUTLIER DRYING THINGS OUT WAY MORE THAN ALL OF THE
OTHER MODELS...SO WILL GENERALLY DISREGARD IT.  MAJORLY DRY
MIDLEVELS MAY OR MAY NOT COME INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SUGGESTING DECENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AND VERY LOW MOISTURE VALUES  TO THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO MIDLEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DRY AIR INTO TEXAS. THIS SITUATION
APPEARS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE
REALLY SEEMS TO BE NO CONSENSUS EXACTLY WHERE THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL END UP POSITIONING ITSELF ON ANY GIVEN DAY. SUBTROPICAL JET MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECM DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SUGGESTING THIS...BUT HARD TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL BE
UNDER THE CONVERGENT OR DIVERGENT QUADRANT AT THIS POINT DUE TO
DIFFERING POSITIONS OF THE JET AXIS. WEAK RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH RETURN
FLOW DUE TO WEAKNESS OF THE LEE TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES
SUPPRESSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EITHER WAY...WPC FORECAST KEEPS
STALLED OUT BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ALBEIT SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THIS MOISTURE PURGATORY WILL
PROBABLY BECOME DECISIVELY MOISTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WRAPS AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
ECONUS HIGH. ECM AND DGEX ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING IT INTO A CLOSED LOW...WITH GFS MERELY SUGGESTING AN OPEN
TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. BY MONDAY
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUMP
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AGAIN AND KILL POPS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...DUE TO THE FINICKY NATURE OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT
FOR BAYS AND WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT TO 60 NM.
MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN MODERATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  90  74  89  74  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          69  93  70  89  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  95  75  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             72  93  72  91  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  90  76  88  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           72  93  72  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  92  73  90  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  89  77  88  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 212039
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
339 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...GOES IMAGERY
INDICATES SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SE TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF /ALSO EVIDENT BY
ARC CLOUDS ON VIS IMAGERY/. GUIDANCE PROGS THIS DRIER AIRMASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.1
TO 1.3 INCHES. THUS...CLEARING SKIES /AFTER EARLY EVENING SCT
CONVECTION DISSIPATES/ AND SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE FEELING
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION. PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO EWX CWA FOR MOST OF MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW LIGHT PBL WIND FIELD
BECOMES...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MET/MAV BLEND. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY ARE ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND /DUE
TO HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE VALUES AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF GULF/ AND ON
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS NE ZONES. WENT WITH A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MON NIGHT MINS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED SLIGHT
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH CWA. GFS/ECM/NAM ALL SUGGESTING
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A
TONGUE OF ELEVATED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND A MID LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GFS
ENSEMBLES MEAN RH OUTPUT IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE...WHICH
SREF A MAJOR OUTLIER DRYING THINGS OUT WAY MORE THAN ALL OF THE
OTHER MODELS...SO WILL GENERALLY DISREGARD IT.  MAJORLY DRY
MIDLEVELS MAY OR MAY NOT COME INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SUGGESTING DECENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AND VERY LOW MOISTURE VALUES  TO THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO MIDLEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DRY AIR INTO TEXAS. THIS SITUATION
APPEARS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE
REALLY SEEMS TO BE NO CONSENSUS EXACTLY WHERE THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL END UP POSITIONING ITSELF ON ANY GIVEN DAY. SUBTROPICAL JET MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECM DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SUGGESTING THIS...BUT HARD TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL BE
UNDER THE CONVERGENT OR DIVERGENT QUADRANT AT THIS POINT DUE TO
DIFFERING POSITIONS OF THE JET AXIS. WEAK RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH RETURN
FLOW DUE TO WEAKNESS OF THE LEE TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES
SUPPRESSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EITHER WAY...WPC FORECAST KEEPS
STALLED OUT BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ALBEIT SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THIS MOISTURE PURGATORY WILL
PROBABLY BECOME DECISIVELY MOISTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WRAPS AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
ECONUS HIGH. ECM AND DGEX ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING IT INTO A CLOSED LOW...WITH GFS MERELY SUGGESTING AN OPEN
TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. BY MONDAY
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUMP
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AGAIN AND KILL POPS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...DUE TO THE FINICKY NATURE OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT
FOR BAYS AND WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT TO 60 NM.
MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN MODERATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  90  74  89  74  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          69  93  70  89  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  95  75  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             72  93  72  91  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  90  76  88  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           72  93  72  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  92  73  90  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  89  77  88  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211745 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1245 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF NEXT 24 HRS WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MON. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA VCNTY OF
KLRD/KCOT EARLY THIS AFTN WITH PRECIP TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE BY LATE AFTN. HAVE VCSH THRU 21Z AT KLRD WITH AMENDMENT
TO TAF POSSIBLE IF PRECIP BECOMES MORE CERTAIN TO IMPACT TERMINAL.
OMITTED TS ATTM DUE TO ISO NATURE OF LIGHTNING AND CB.
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT IS OVERSPREADING KCRP/KVCT/KALI
THIS AFTN WITH VFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL. A BRIEF ISO SHRA MAY FLIRT
WITH KCRP/KALI EARLY THIS AFTN...BUT ISO/BRIEF NATURE PRECLUDES
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. ALL TERMINALS XPCTD TO BE RAIN FREE AND VFR
MOST OF TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG MAY TRY TO DVLP OVER AREA TERMINALS
LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DVLPMNT. HAVE GONE IFR VSBYS FOR A COUPLE OF HRS LATE
TONIGHT AT KALI AND MVFR AT KVCT...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT
KCRP/KLRD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND IMPROVING VSBYS MON MRNG. ERLY
SFC WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS AFTN BECOMING
LIGHT TONIGHT/MON MRNG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  91  74  89  /  50  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          92  71  91  71  88  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            92  75  93  74  92  /  40  30  10  10  20
ALICE             91  74  92  73  91  /  40  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          87  78  89  77  88  /  50  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           92  72  92  72  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  91  73  90  /  40  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       87  78  88  78  88  /  50  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211745 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1245 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF NEXT 24 HRS WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MON. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA VCNTY OF
KLRD/KCOT EARLY THIS AFTN WITH PRECIP TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE BY LATE AFTN. HAVE VCSH THRU 21Z AT KLRD WITH AMENDMENT
TO TAF POSSIBLE IF PRECIP BECOMES MORE CERTAIN TO IMPACT TERMINAL.
OMITTED TS ATTM DUE TO ISO NATURE OF LIGHTNING AND CB.
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT IS OVERSPREADING KCRP/KVCT/KALI
THIS AFTN WITH VFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL. A BRIEF ISO SHRA MAY FLIRT
WITH KCRP/KALI EARLY THIS AFTN...BUT ISO/BRIEF NATURE PRECLUDES
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. ALL TERMINALS XPCTD TO BE RAIN FREE AND VFR
MOST OF TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG MAY TRY TO DVLP OVER AREA TERMINALS
LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DVLPMNT. HAVE GONE IFR VSBYS FOR A COUPLE OF HRS LATE
TONIGHT AT KALI AND MVFR AT KVCT...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT
KCRP/KLRD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND IMPROVING VSBYS MON MRNG. ERLY
SFC WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS AFTN BECOMING
LIGHT TONIGHT/MON MRNG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  91  74  89  /  50  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          92  71  91  71  88  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            92  75  93  74  92  /  40  30  10  10  20
ALICE             91  74  92  73  91  /  40  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          87  78  89  77  88  /  50  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           92  72  92  72  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  91  73  90  /  40  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       87  78  88  78  88  /  50  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211642 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1142 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING AS A
RESULT. THUS...COASTAL CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY WANING LATE THIS
MORNING. FARTHER WEST...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. GOES IMAGERY INDICATES
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT PUSHING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIRMASS IS PROG TO OVERSPREAD OUR NE AND
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION BECOMING CONFINED TO
WESTERN AREAS. HAVE REFRESHED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE DRYING
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND RAISED VALUES ACROSS NE ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  91  74  89  /  50  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          92  71  91  71  88  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            92  75  93  74  92  /  40  30  10  10  20
ALICE             91  74  92  73  91  /  40  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          87  78  89  77  88  /  50  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           92  72  92  72  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  91  73  90  /  40  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       87  78  88  78  88  /  50  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...UPDATE






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211642 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1142 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING AS A
RESULT. THUS...COASTAL CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY WANING LATE THIS
MORNING. FARTHER WEST...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. GOES IMAGERY INDICATES
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT PUSHING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIRMASS IS PROG TO OVERSPREAD OUR NE AND
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION BECOMING CONFINED TO
WESTERN AREAS. HAVE REFRESHED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE DRYING
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND RAISED VALUES ACROSS NE ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  91  74  89  /  50  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          92  71  91  71  88  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            92  75  93  74  92  /  40  30  10  10  20
ALICE             91  74  92  73  91  /  40  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          87  78  89  77  88  /  50  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           92  72  92  72  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  91  73  90  /  40  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       87  78  88  78  88  /  50  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...UPDATE





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211222 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
722 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EASTERN ZONES FOR PRIMARILY
FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING. DECENT TO STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE
LOCATED ALONG THE COAST WILL AID IN CONTINUED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY WITH A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED UNDER
PROLONGED CONVECTION. WILL SEND AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE MID/LATE
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  91  74  89  /  50  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          90  71  91  71  88  /  20  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            92  75  93  74  92  /  40  30  10  10  20
ALICE             91  74  92  73  91  /  40  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          89  78  89  77  88  /  50  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           92  72  92  72  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  91  73  90  /  40  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  88  78  88  /  50  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211222 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
722 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EASTERN ZONES FOR PRIMARILY
FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING. DECENT TO STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE
LOCATED ALONG THE COAST WILL AID IN CONTINUED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY WITH A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED UNDER
PROLONGED CONVECTION. WILL SEND AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE MID/LATE
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  91  74  89  /  50  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          90  71  91  71  88  /  20  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            92  75  93  74  92  /  40  30  10  10  20
ALICE             91  74  92  73  91  /  40  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          89  78  89  77  88  /  50  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           92  72  92  72  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  91  73  90  /  40  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  88  78  88  /  50  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211144 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
THE CRP TAF SITE...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS LIKELY. LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY BR MAY STILL OCCUR FROM ALI TO LRD...BUT LESS
CONFIDENT AT THE VCT TAF SITE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH TO THE WEST TODAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS JUST YET. E TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INLAND AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
PERSIST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AFTER 00Z AND LEFT SOME LOW END
POPS OUT WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN
MONDAY EVENING. DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH BETTER MOISTURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...BELIEVE IT WILL BE
AFTER 00Z SO WILL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD. HIGHS
TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF PCPN. WEAK MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SH/TSRA ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUE AND WED.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN OVER BIG BEND ON THURSDAY WITH
DIFLUENCE NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA THU AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC/CHC SH/TSRA ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AND GULF WATERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED. WEAK/MODERATE E-NE SFC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  91  74  89  /  30  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          90  71  91  71  88  /  20  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            92  75  93  74  92  /  40  30  10  10  20
ALICE             91  74  92  73  91  /  30  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          89  78  89  77  88  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           92  72  92  72  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  91  73  90  /  30  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  88  78  88  /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 211144 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
THE CRP TAF SITE...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS LIKELY. LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY BR MAY STILL OCCUR FROM ALI TO LRD...BUT LESS
CONFIDENT AT THE VCT TAF SITE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH TO THE WEST TODAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS JUST YET. E TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INLAND AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
PERSIST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AFTER 00Z AND LEFT SOME LOW END
POPS OUT WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN
MONDAY EVENING. DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH BETTER MOISTURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...BELIEVE IT WILL BE
AFTER 00Z SO WILL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD. HIGHS
TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF PCPN. WEAK MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SH/TSRA ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUE AND WED.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN OVER BIG BEND ON THURSDAY WITH
DIFLUENCE NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA THU AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC/CHC SH/TSRA ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AND GULF WATERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED. WEAK/MODERATE E-NE SFC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  91  74  89  /  30  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          90  71  91  71  88  /  20  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            92  75  93  74  92  /  40  30  10  10  20
ALICE             91  74  92  73  91  /  30  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          89  78  89  77  88  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           92  72  92  72  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  91  73  90  /  30  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  88  78  88  /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210859
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INLAND AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
PERSIST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AFTER 00Z AND LEFT SOME LOW END
POPS OUT WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN
MONDAY EVENING. DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH BETTER MOISTURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...BELIEVE IT WILL BE
AFTER 00Z SO WILL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD. HIGHS
TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG-TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF PCPN. WEAK MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SH/TSRA ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUE AND WED.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN OVER BIG BEND ON THURSDAY WITH
DIFLUENCE NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA THU AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC/CHC SH/TSRA ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AND GULF WATERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED. WEAK/MODERATE E-NE SFC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  91  74  89  /  30  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          90  71  91  71  88  /  20  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            92  75  93  74  92  /  40  30  10  10  20
ALICE             91  74  92  73  91  /  30  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          89  78  89  77  88  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           92  72  92  72  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  91  73  90  /  30  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  88  78  88  /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 210859
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INLAND AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
PERSIST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AFTER 00Z AND LEFT SOME LOW END
POPS OUT WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN
MONDAY EVENING. DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH BETTER MOISTURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...BELIEVE IT WILL BE
AFTER 00Z SO WILL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD. HIGHS
TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG-TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF PCPN. WEAK MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SH/TSRA ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUE AND WED.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN OVER BIG BEND ON THURSDAY WITH
DIFLUENCE NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA THU AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC/CHC SH/TSRA ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AND GULF WATERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED. WEAK/MODERATE E-NE SFC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  91  74  89  /  30  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          90  71  91  71  88  /  20  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            92  75  93  74  92  /  40  30  10  10  20
ALICE             91  74  92  73  91  /  30  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          89  78  89  77  88  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           92  72  92  72  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  91  73  90  /  30  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  88  78  88  /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210605 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
105 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
OVER THE GULF WATERS...THEN MOVING INLAND. THREAT FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY BR/FOG WILL EXIST FROM LRD TO ALI TO VCT...WITH A
LESSER CHANCE AT CRP. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A
CRP/ALI/LRD ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
AT VCT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. IF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACT A TAF SITE...THEN REDUCED VSBYS
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE E
TO ENE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. PWAT`S ARE 2.39 INCHES. A DRIER MID LEVEL
CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING TOWARD THE NE CWA PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE.
MODELS PROG DRIER MID LEVELS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE NE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY THUS LIMITING CONVECTION FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST CONCURRENT WITH
INCREASING OMEGA. HAD CONTEMPLATED INCREASING POPS FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT
FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. AM CONFIDENT ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING
POPS TO SCT CATEGORY FOR THE COAST FOR NOW. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL BEND INTO THE BRUSH
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THEN EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING
THEN AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM
08-14Z SUNDAY. PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG AND LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. AFTER PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500-2500 FEET FROM
14-17Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS. THE
LRD AREA WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS
FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...H500 TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE SE US THROUGH MONDAY WHILE RIDGING INTENSIFIES OVER
THE CENTRAL US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
NW HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES WILL INTENSIFY AND SHIFT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS DEVELOPING OVER THE COURSE OF THE
SHORT TERM...WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE (HARDLY WORTH CALLING A
FRONT) APPROACHING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...ALREADY IN PLACE OVER FAR EAST
TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...VICTORIA
CROSSROADS...AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. PRECIP AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH
THIS IN MIND.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS IN A
LULL AS DRIER AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK RIDGING.
CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESUME MOIST ONSHORE FLOW BY
TUESDAY...AND WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY STILL IN OR NEAR THE CWFA...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RESUME. SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A SUBTROPICAL JET
LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...WITH INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG SEABREEZE CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE
LATE IN THE WEEK BASED ON FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES.

AVIATION...AMENDED VCT TAF AS CIGS WERE TOO LOW. ADJUSTED TIMING
ON TEMPO GROUP AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  91  74  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          90  71  91  72  89  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            92  75  93  75  92  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             91  73  92  73  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          89  78  89  77  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           92  73  92  73  92  /  30  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  91  74  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  88  78  88  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 210605 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
105 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
OVER THE GULF WATERS...THEN MOVING INLAND. THREAT FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY BR/FOG WILL EXIST FROM LRD TO ALI TO VCT...WITH A
LESSER CHANCE AT CRP. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A
CRP/ALI/LRD ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
AT VCT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. IF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACT A TAF SITE...THEN REDUCED VSBYS
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE E
TO ENE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. PWAT`S ARE 2.39 INCHES. A DRIER MID LEVEL
CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING TOWARD THE NE CWA PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE.
MODELS PROG DRIER MID LEVELS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE NE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY THUS LIMITING CONVECTION FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST CONCURRENT WITH
INCREASING OMEGA. HAD CONTEMPLATED INCREASING POPS FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT
FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. AM CONFIDENT ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING
POPS TO SCT CATEGORY FOR THE COAST FOR NOW. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL BEND INTO THE BRUSH
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THEN EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING
THEN AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM
08-14Z SUNDAY. PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG AND LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. AFTER PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500-2500 FEET FROM
14-17Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS. THE
LRD AREA WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS
FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...H500 TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE SE US THROUGH MONDAY WHILE RIDGING INTENSIFIES OVER
THE CENTRAL US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
NW HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES WILL INTENSIFY AND SHIFT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS DEVELOPING OVER THE COURSE OF THE
SHORT TERM...WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE (HARDLY WORTH CALLING A
FRONT) APPROACHING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...ALREADY IN PLACE OVER FAR EAST
TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...VICTORIA
CROSSROADS...AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. PRECIP AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH
THIS IN MIND.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS IN A
LULL AS DRIER AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK RIDGING.
CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESUME MOIST ONSHORE FLOW BY
TUESDAY...AND WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY STILL IN OR NEAR THE CWFA...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RESUME. SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A SUBTROPICAL JET
LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...WITH INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG SEABREEZE CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE
LATE IN THE WEEK BASED ON FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES.

AVIATION...AMENDED VCT TAF AS CIGS WERE TOO LOW. ADJUSTED TIMING
ON TEMPO GROUP AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  91  74  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          90  71  91  72  89  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            92  75  93  75  92  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             91  73  92  73  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          89  78  89  77  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           92  73  92  73  92  /  30  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  91  74  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  88  78  88  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210046
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
746 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. PWAT`S ARE 2.39 INCHES. A DRIER MID LEVEL
CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING TOWARD THE NE CWA PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE.
MODELS PROG DRIER MID LEVELS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE NE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY THUS LIMITING CONVECTION FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST CONCURRENT WITH
INCREASING OMEGA. HAD CONTEMPLATED INCREASING POPS FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT
FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. AM CONFIDENT ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING
POPS TO SCT CATEGORY FOR THE COAST FOR NOW. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL BEND INTO THE BRUSH
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THEN EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING
THEN AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM
08-14Z SUNDAY. PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG AND LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. AFTER PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500-2500 FEET FROM
14-17Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS. THE
LRD AREA WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS
FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...H500 TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE SE US THROUGH MONDAY WHILE RIDGING INTENSIFIES OVER
THE CENTRAL US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
NW HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES WILL INTENSIFY AND SHIFT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS DEVELOPING OVER THE COURSE OF THE
SHORT TERM...WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE (HARDLY WORTH CALLING A
FRONT) APPROACHING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...ALREADY IN PLACE OVER FAR EAST
TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...VICTORIA
CROSSROADS...AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. PRECIP AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH
THIS IN MIND.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS IN A
LULL AS DRIER AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK RIDGING.
CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESUME MOIST ONSHORE FLOW BY
TUESDAY...AND WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY STILL IN OR NEAR THE CWFA...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RESUME. SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A SUBTROPICAL JET
LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...WITH INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG SEABREEZE CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE
LATE IN THE WEEK BASED ON FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES.

AVIATION...AMENDED VCT TAF AS CIGS WERE TOO LOW. ADJUSTED TIMING
ON TEMPO GROUP AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  75  91  74  /  30  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          73  90  71  91  72  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            76  92  75  93  75  /  40  30  20  10  10
ALICE             75  91  73  92  73  /  30  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  89  78  89  77  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75  92  73  92  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  91  74  91  74  /  30  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  89  78  88  78  /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 210046
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
746 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. PWAT`S ARE 2.39 INCHES. A DRIER MID LEVEL
CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING TOWARD THE NE CWA PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE.
MODELS PROG DRIER MID LEVELS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE NE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY THUS LIMITING CONVECTION FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST CONCURRENT WITH
INCREASING OMEGA. HAD CONTEMPLATED INCREASING POPS FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT
FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. AM CONFIDENT ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING
POPS TO SCT CATEGORY FOR THE COAST FOR NOW. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL BEND INTO THE BRUSH
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THEN EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING
THEN AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM
08-14Z SUNDAY. PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG AND LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. AFTER PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500-2500 FEET FROM
14-17Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS. THE
LRD AREA WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS
FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...H500 TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE SE US THROUGH MONDAY WHILE RIDGING INTENSIFIES OVER
THE CENTRAL US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
NW HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES WILL INTENSIFY AND SHIFT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS DEVELOPING OVER THE COURSE OF THE
SHORT TERM...WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE (HARDLY WORTH CALLING A
FRONT) APPROACHING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...ALREADY IN PLACE OVER FAR EAST
TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...VICTORIA
CROSSROADS...AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. PRECIP AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH
THIS IN MIND.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS IN A
LULL AS DRIER AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK RIDGING.
CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESUME MOIST ONSHORE FLOW BY
TUESDAY...AND WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY STILL IN OR NEAR THE CWFA...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RESUME. SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A SUBTROPICAL JET
LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...WITH INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG SEABREEZE CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE
LATE IN THE WEEK BASED ON FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES.

AVIATION...AMENDED VCT TAF AS CIGS WERE TOO LOW. ADJUSTED TIMING
ON TEMPO GROUP AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  75  91  74  /  30  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          73  90  71  91  72  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            76  92  75  93  75  /  40  30  20  10  10
ALICE             75  91  73  92  73  /  30  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  89  78  89  77  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75  92  73  92  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  91  74  91  74  /  30  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  89  78  88  78  /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






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