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000
FXUS64 KCRP 221126
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS DRG THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR DRG THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE
SRN SECTIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SWRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN OWING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG DRG THE 08-12Z THU PERIOD. LGT
GENERALLY EAST WIND EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CWA TODAY OWING TO SUFFICIENT MSTR...YET
NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT CAPE WL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONCUR WITH THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (700-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 200MB JET DYNAMICS). YET...NO SIGNIFICANT
PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THAT PERIOD OWING TO
INSUFFICENT MSTR (GFS/NAM PWAT VALUES BELOW NORMAL.)

MARINE...ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WL RESULT
IN SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY/TNGT. WL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE NEW MOON AND EXPECTED SFC WIND VELOCITIES. (ANTICIPATE THAT
SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 SECONDS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT WATER LEVELS WL REMAIN BELOW 2FT MSL
(BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE TAMUCC WATER LEVEL PREDICTIONS.)

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
NNE FLOW PROG TO OCCUR FROM H9 AND ABOVE. PWATS SHOULD FALL TO LESS
THAN AN INCH AS A RESULT WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP BECOMING PRACTICALLY
NIL. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS TX OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT WIND FIELD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS.
LLVL WAA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ATTM MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ALOFT AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO TX. 00Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE
FRONT WILL BE...BUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT OCCUR
DURING VALID FORECAST TIME FRAME. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN MID LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK
AS MODEST WAA OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  82  64  86  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          86  61  85  59  89  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             86  64  85  62  88  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          83  69  81  67  85  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  64  87  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  81  68  85  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220916
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
416 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CWA TODAY OWING TO SUFFICIENT MSTR...YET
NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT CAPE WL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONCUR WITH THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (700-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 200MB JET DYNAMICS). YET...NO SIGNIFICANT
PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THAT PERIOD OWING TO
INSUFFICENT MSTR (GFS/NAM PWAT VALUES BELOW NORMAL.)

&&

.MARINE...ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WL RESULT
IN SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY/TNGT. WL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE NEW MOON AND EXPECTED SFC WIND VELOCITIES. (ANTICIPATE THAT
SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 SECONDS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT WATER LEVELS WL REMAIN BELOW 2FT MSL
(BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE TAMUCC WATER LEVEL PREDICTIONS.)

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
NNE FLOW PROG TO OCCUR FROM H9 AND ABOVE. PWATS SHOULD FALL TO LESS
THAN AN INCH AS A RESULT WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP BECOMING PRACTICALLY
NIL. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS TX OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT WIND FIELD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS.
LLVL WAA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ATTM MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ALOFT AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO TX. 00Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE
FRONT WILL BE...BUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT OCCUR
DURING VALID FORECAST TIME FRAME. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN MID LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK
AS MODEST WAA OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  82  64  86  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          86  61  85  59  89  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             86  64  85  62  88  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          83  69  81  67  85  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  64  87  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  81  68  85  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220627
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
127 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED FOR THE
09-15Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD. GENERALLY LGT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO MODERATE DRG THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LGT WIND AFTERWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...ONLY CHANGES NEEDED WERE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND
MOISTURE GRIDS TO FIT OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS. RAINFALL
REMAINS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE OR MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE. THUS...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. NO ZFPCRP UPDATE...AS CHANGES TO GRIDS
DID NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS OR WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NEAR LRD THROUGH 01Z
BEFORE FURTHER DIMINISHING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR FOG FROM ALI-
VCT...AND MVFR STRATUS AT LRD...FROM 08Z-13Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EAST 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX...WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD SHRAS TONIGHT THRU WED...WHILE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER ACROSS THE EAST CWA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE MCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA WITH
CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS THROUGH WED. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ABV NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN THE E
TO NE FLOW ACROSS S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MOD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MOD RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THRU WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER ARE RUNNING
APPROX. 0.5FT ABV PREDICTED WHICH RESULTS IN TIDES RUNNING AROUND
1.5FT ABV MSL AT THE PEAK OF HIGH TIDE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND CAPPED OVER
THE REGION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. A SUBSIDENT
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRI-SAT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES (DWPTS IN 50S) AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NEXT S/W TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INITIATING A WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH
DWPTS NOSING BACK INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND
MONDAY WITHIN AXIS OF LOW LVL MOIST ADVECTION. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO POOLING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA BY THE WEEKEND...RELAXING THE GRADIENT IN
THE NW GULF AND WILL REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE
ANY IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  67  84  65  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  59  85  60  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            87  68  85  66  88  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             88  65  86  63  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  69  83  68  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           87  65  86  64  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        87  66  85  64  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  70  83  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220157 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
857 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...ONLY CHANGES NEEDED WERE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND
MOISTURE GRIDS TO FIT OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS. RAINFALL
REMAINS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE OR MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE. THUS...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. NO ZFPCRP UPDATE...AS CHANGES TO GRIDS
DID NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS OR WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NEAR LRD THROUGH 01Z
BEFORE FURTHER DIMINISHING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR FOG FROM ALI-
VCT...AND MVFR STRATUS AT LRD...FROM 08Z-13Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EAST 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX...WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD SHRAS TONIGHT THRU WED...WHILE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER ACROSS THE EAST CWA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE MCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA WITH
CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS THROUGH WED. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ABV NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN THE E
TO NE FLOW ACROSS S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MOD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MOD RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THRU WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER ARE RUNNING
APPROX. 0.5FT ABV PREDICTED WHICH RESULTS IN TIDES RUNNING AROUND
1.5FT ABV MSL AT THE PEAK OF HIGH TIDE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND CAPPED OVER
THE REGION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. A SUBSIDENT
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRI-SAT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES (DWPTS IN 50S) AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NEXT S/W TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INITIATING A WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH
DWPTS NOSING BACK INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND
MONDAY WITHIN AXIS OF LOW LVL MOIST ADVECTION. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO POOLING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA BY THE WEEKEND...RELAXING THE GRADIENT IN
THE NW GULF AND WILL REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE
ANY IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  86  67  84  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          60  87  59  85  60  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            68  87  68  85  66  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             65  88  65  86  63  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  85  69  83  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           65  87  65  86  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  87  66  85  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  85  70  83  70  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 212345 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NEAR LRD THROUGH 01Z
BEFORE FURTHER DIMINISHING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR FOG FROM ALI-
VCT...AND MVFR STRATUS AT LRD...FROM 08Z-13Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EAST 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX...WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD SHRAS TONIGHT THRU WED...WHILE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER ACROSS THE EAST CWA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE MCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA WITH
CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS THROUGH WED. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ABV NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN THE E
TO NE FLOW ACROSS S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MOD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MOD RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THRU WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER ARE RUNNING
APPROX. 0.5FT ABV PREDICTED WHICH RESULTS IN TIDES RUNNING AROUND
1.5FT ABV MSL AT THE PEAK OF HIGH TIDE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND CAPPED OVER
THE REGION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. A SUBSIDENT
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRI-SAT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES (DWPTS IN 50S) AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NEXT S/W TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INITIATING A WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH
DWPTS NOSING BACK INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND
MONDAY WITHIN AXIS OF LOW LVL MOIST ADVECTION. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO POOLING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA BY THE WEEKEND...RELAXING THE GRADIENT IN
THE NW GULF AND WILL REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE
ANY IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  86  67  84  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          60  87  59  85  60  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            68  87  68  85  66  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             65  88  65  86  63  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  85  69  83  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           65  87  65  86  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  87  66  85  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  85  70  83  70  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 212345 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NEAR LRD THROUGH 01Z
BEFORE FURTHER DIMINISHING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR FOG FROM ALI-
VCT...AND MVFR STRATUS AT LRD...FROM 08Z-13Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EAST 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX...WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD SHRAS TONIGHT THRU WED...WHILE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER ACROSS THE EAST CWA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE MCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA WITH
CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS THROUGH WED. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ABV NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN THE E
TO NE FLOW ACROSS S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MOD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MOD RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THRU WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER ARE RUNNING
APPROX. 0.5FT ABV PREDICTED WHICH RESULTS IN TIDES RUNNING AROUND
1.5FT ABV MSL AT THE PEAK OF HIGH TIDE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND CAPPED OVER
THE REGION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. A SUBSIDENT
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRI-SAT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES (DWPTS IN 50S) AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NEXT S/W TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INITIATING A WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH
DWPTS NOSING BACK INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND
MONDAY WITHIN AXIS OF LOW LVL MOIST ADVECTION. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO POOLING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA BY THE WEEKEND...RELAXING THE GRADIENT IN
THE NW GULF AND WILL REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE
ANY IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  86  67  84  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          60  87  59  85  60  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            68  87  68  85  66  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             65  88  65  86  63  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  85  69  83  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           65  87  65  86  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  87  66  85  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  85  70  83  70  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 211956
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX...WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD SHRAS TONIGHT THRU WED...WHILE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER ACROSS THE EAST CWA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE MCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA WITH
CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS THROUGH WED. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ABV NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN THE E
TO NE FLOW ACROSS S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MOD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MOD RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THRU WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER ARE RUNNING
APPROX. 0.5FT ABV PREDICTED WHICH RESULTS IN TIDES RUNNING AROUND
1.5FT ABV MSL AT THE PEAK OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND CAPPED OVER
THE REGION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. A SUBSIDENT
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRI-SAT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES (DWPTS IN 50S) AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NEXT S/W TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INITIATING A WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH
DWPTS NOSING BACK INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND
MONDAY WITHIN AXIS OF LOW LVL MOIST ADVECTION. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO POOLING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA BY THE WEEKEND...RELAXING THE GRADIENT IN
THE NW GULF AND WILL REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE
ANY IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  86  67  84  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          60  87  59  85  60  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            68  87  68  85  66  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             65  88  65  86  63  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  85  69  83  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           65  87  65  86  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  87  66  85  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  85  70  83  70  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 211725 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KLRD...BUT WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS TODAY WILL
BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AFTER O1Z EASTERLY WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 08Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOG POSSIBLE AT
KALI AND KLRD SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION.
KVCT WILL LIKELY SEE VSBYS REDUCED TO AROUND 4 MILES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. AFTER 15Z ALL SITES BACK TO VFR AND EASTERLY WINDS 10-15
KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PERIODS
GOING FORWARD. ZFP...AFM..AND PFM PRODUCTS ISSUED TO ELIMINATE THE
MENTION OF MORNING FOG FOR A FEW COUNTIES. DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO POOL HIGHER CLOUD CONCENTRATIONS AND THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
CONFINED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

EWX FORECASTERS:
ML...SHORT TERM
MO...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 211537
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1037 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PERIODS
GOING FORWARD. ZFP...AFM..AND PFM PRODUCTS ISSUED TO ELIMINATE THE
MENTION OF MORNING FOG FOR A FEW COUNTIES. DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO POOL HIGHER CLOUD CONCENTRATIONS AND THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
CONFINED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

EWX FORECASTERS:
ML...SHORT TERM
MO...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 211537
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1037 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PERIODS
GOING FORWARD. ZFP...AFM..AND PFM PRODUCTS ISSUED TO ELIMINATE THE
MENTION OF MORNING FOG FOR A FEW COUNTIES. DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO POOL HIGHER CLOUD CONCENTRATIONS AND THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
CONFINED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

EWX FORECASTERS:
ML...SHORT TERM
MO...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 211537
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1037 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PERIODS
GOING FORWARD. ZFP...AFM..AND PFM PRODUCTS ISSUED TO ELIMINATE THE
MENTION OF MORNING FOG FOR A FEW COUNTIES. DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO POOL HIGHER CLOUD CONCENTRATIONS AND THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
CONFINED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

EWX FORECASTERS:
ML...SHORT TERM
MO...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 211537
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1037 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PERIODS
GOING FORWARD. ZFP...AFM..AND PFM PRODUCTS ISSUED TO ELIMINATE THE
MENTION OF MORNING FOG FOR A FEW COUNTIES. DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO POOL HIGHER CLOUD CONCENTRATIONS AND THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
CONFINED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

EWX FORECASTERS:
ML...SHORT TERM
MO...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 211141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211141
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79







000
FXUS64 KCRP 211141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211141
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79







000
FXUS64 KCRP 210909
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
409 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
INDICATED AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS LOCATED FROM BAFFIN
BAY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THUS...ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THAT MANAGES TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS
TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL BE RATHER
LOW AND CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WAS TEMPTED TO
REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER FOR TODAY...BUT MAINTAINED THEM DUE TO
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS. THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE LOCATED
ACROSS NE ZONES. DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE SOUTH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER MIN
TEMPS. MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A WEAKENING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. BUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY
OVER THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY AND FURTHER EASTWARD FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY THURSDAY AND BECOME WEAK BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
AND BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210909
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
409 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
INDICATED AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS LOCATED FROM BAFFIN
BAY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THUS...ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THAT MANAGES TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS
TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL BE RATHER
LOW AND CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WAS TEMPTED TO
REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER FOR TODAY...BUT MAINTAINED THEM DUE TO
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS. THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE LOCATED
ACROSS NE ZONES. DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE SOUTH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER MIN
TEMPS. MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A WEAKENING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. BUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY
OVER THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY AND FURTHER EASTWARD FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY THURSDAY AND BECOME WEAK BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
AND BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 210542 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...KCRP XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HRS WHILE FLIGHT
RULES AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI DETERIORATE AT TIMES. FEW PASSING LLVL
CLOUDS TONIGHT AT KCRP WITH MIFG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...BUT VFR
PREVAILING OVERALL. KLRD XPCTD TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG WED /THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW TO MEDIUM/. KVCT MAY
EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION SHOULD PREVENT LOWER REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. KALI XPCTD TO HAVE
POOREST FLIGHT RULES AS FOG DVLPS OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR TO EVEN
LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
BY MID/LATE MRNG TUES WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD. ISO SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG AT
KCRP AND DRNG AFTN AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT ENERLY SFC WINDS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KTS FROM THE EAST DRNG DAYTIME TUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  20  10
VICTORIA          86  62  86  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  70  87  68  85  /  40  10  20  20  20
ALICE             85  68  87  65  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  72  85  69  83  /  30  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  66  86  63  85  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  84  71  83  /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 210542 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...KCRP XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HRS WHILE FLIGHT
RULES AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI DETERIORATE AT TIMES. FEW PASSING LLVL
CLOUDS TONIGHT AT KCRP WITH MIFG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...BUT VFR
PREVAILING OVERALL. KLRD XPCTD TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG WED /THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW TO MEDIUM/. KVCT MAY
EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION SHOULD PREVENT LOWER REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. KALI XPCTD TO HAVE
POOREST FLIGHT RULES AS FOG DVLPS OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR TO EVEN
LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
BY MID/LATE MRNG TUES WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD. ISO SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG AT
KCRP AND DRNG AFTN AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT ENERLY SFC WINDS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KTS FROM THE EAST DRNG DAYTIME TUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  20  10
VICTORIA          86  62  86  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  70  87  68  85  /  40  10  20  20  20
ALICE             85  68  87  65  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  72  85  69  83  /  30  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  66  86  63  85  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  84  71  83  /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210542
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...KCRP XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HRS WHILE FLIGHT
RULES AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI DETERIORATE AT TIMES. FEW PASSING LLVL
CLOUDS TONIGHT AT KCRP WITH MIFG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...BUT VFR
PREVAILING OVERALL. KLRD XPCTD TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG WED /THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW TO MEDIUM/. KVCT MAY
EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION SHOULD PREVENT LOWER REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. KALI XPCTD TO HAVE
POOREST FLIGHT RULES AS FOG DVLPS OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR TO EVEN
LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
BY MID/LATE MRNG TUES WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD. ISO SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG AT
KCRP AND DRNG AFTN AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT ENERLY SFC WINDS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KTS FROM THE EAST DRNG DAYTIME TUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  20  10
VICTORIA          86  62  86  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  70  87  68  85  /  40  10  20  20  20
ALICE             85  68  87  65  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  72  85  69  83  /  30  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  66  86  63  85  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  84  71  83  /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 202344
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 202344 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 202344 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 202025
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 201742
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND HAS LEAD TO
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE CRP TAF SITE. RADAR INDICATED
THAT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION IS INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD ALI
AND LRD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
CRP...ALI AND LRD. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG DVLP. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PUSH FARTHER S INTO THE CWA ON TUE RESULTING IN ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS S TX BY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
ON TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA`S CURRENTLY MOVG ONSHORE FROM NEAR
BAFFIN BAY TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BETTER CAPE AND LEAST CIN VALUES ALONG THE COAST
SOUTHWARD TO BRO`S AREA. THE INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO INCREASE
FARTHER W THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY
FOR REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 201742
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND HAS LEAD TO
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE CRP TAF SITE. RADAR INDICATED
THAT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION IS INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD ALI
AND LRD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
CRP...ALI AND LRD. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG DVLP. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PUSH FARTHER S INTO THE CWA ON TUE RESULTING IN ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS S TX BY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
ON TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA`S CURRENTLY MOVG ONSHORE FROM NEAR
BAFFIN BAY TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BETTER CAPE AND LEAST CIN VALUES ALONG THE COAST
SOUTHWARD TO BRO`S AREA. THE INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO INCREASE
FARTHER W THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY
FOR REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 201355
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
855 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA`S CURRENTLY MOVG ONSHORE FROM NEAR
BAFFIN BAY TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BETTER CAPE AND LEAST CIN VALUES ALONG THE COAST
SOUTHWARD TO BRO`S AREA. THE INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO INCREASE
FARTHER W THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY
FOR REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 201355
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
855 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA`S CURRENTLY MOVG ONSHORE FROM NEAR
BAFFIN BAY TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BETTER CAPE AND LEAST CIN VALUES ALONG THE COAST
SOUTHWARD TO BRO`S AREA. THE INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO INCREASE
FARTHER W THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY
FOR REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 201134 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 201134 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 200932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...EARLY THIS MORNING...A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WAS ANALYZED TO EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS HOW HIGH/LOW TO GO WITH POPS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH SLIGHTLY WHILE AN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE TRANSITIONS MORE TO AN AREA OF SPEED
CONVERGENCE. GREATEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH PERHAPS A LOCAL MAXIMUM ACROSS SE ZONES WHERE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IS PROG BY THE RUC AND NAM TO BE THE GREATEST.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING CHANCES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO PICK UP
ON IMPACTS FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY. NE ZONES SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP TODAY DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE LLVL
WIND PROFILE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AND FOR NOW HAVE
OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER IN OFFICIAL FORECAST...THROUGH A RUMBLE
OR TWO WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST ACROSS NE ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE THINNEST AND
CONDITIONS THE DRIEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING WITH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAINING DRY AREAWIDE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
LOWER ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN WITH MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
BE LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. MODELS DEPICT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO
AND TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR WEST WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...THE
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DEVELOPS. MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. TIDE LEVELS MAY INCREASE TO ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER SWELLS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
AFFECT THE COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY...WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MORE
PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND WEAK NORTHEAST WINDS TO
PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY. MILD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED WHILE HIGH
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR-SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 200932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...EARLY THIS MORNING...A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WAS ANALYZED TO EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS HOW HIGH/LOW TO GO WITH POPS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH SLIGHTLY WHILE AN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE TRANSITIONS MORE TO AN AREA OF SPEED
CONVERGENCE. GREATEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH PERHAPS A LOCAL MAXIMUM ACROSS SE ZONES WHERE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IS PROG BY THE RUC AND NAM TO BE THE GREATEST.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING CHANCES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO PICK UP
ON IMPACTS FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY. NE ZONES SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP TODAY DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE LLVL
WIND PROFILE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AND FOR NOW HAVE
OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER IN OFFICIAL FORECAST...THROUGH A RUMBLE
OR TWO WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST ACROSS NE ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE THINNEST AND
CONDITIONS THE DRIEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING WITH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAINING DRY AREAWIDE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
LOWER ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN WITH MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
BE LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. MODELS DEPICT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO
AND TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR WEST WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...THE
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DEVELOPS. MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. TIDE LEVELS MAY INCREASE TO ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER SWELLS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
AFFECT THE COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY...WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MORE
PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND WEAK NORTHEAST WINDS TO
PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY. MILD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED WHILE HIGH
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR-SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 200540
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1240 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR THRU REST OF TONIGHT AT KVCT WITH VFR
GENERALLY PREVAILING AT KCRP/KLRD/KALI. AS OF WRITING...VSBYS AT
KVCT WERE ALREADY APPROACHING IFR LEVELS WITH REDUCED VSBYS EXPCTD
TO PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. FROM KLRD EAST TO KCRP...BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING
OTHERWISE. CONDITIONS AT KVCT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MRNG
MON AND CONTINUE THRU REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS FROM KLRD
TO KCRP SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AT VFR DRNG THE DAY
MONDAY...HOWEVER SCT SHRA ARE XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI/KLRD WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIEST SHRA. HAVE PROB30
GROUPING FOR KCRP AND KALI FROM MID/LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN AND
FOR MID AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AT KLRD. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
IMPACTNG KVCT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. GENERALLY LIGHT
ERLY WINDS THRU TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS DRNG THE DAY
MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 200540 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1240 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR THRU REST OF TONIGHT AT KVCT WITH VFR
GENERALLY PREVAILING AT KCRP/KLRD/KALI. AS OF WRITING...VSBYS AT
KVCT WERE ALREADY APPROACHING IFR LEVELS WITH REDUCED VSBYS EXPCTD
TO PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. FROM KLRD EAST TO KCRP...BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING
OTHERWISE. CONDITIONS AT KVCT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MRNG
MON AND CONTINUE THRU REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS FROM KLRD
TO KCRP SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AT VFR DRNG THE DAY
MONDAY...HOWEVER SCT SHRA ARE XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI/KLRD WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIEST SHRA. HAVE PROB30
GROUPING FOR KCRP AND KALI FROM MID/LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN AND
FOR MID AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AT KLRD. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
IMPACTNG KVCT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. GENERALLY LIGHT
ERLY WINDS THRU TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS DRNG THE DAY
MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 200540 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1240 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR THRU REST OF TONIGHT AT KVCT WITH VFR
GENERALLY PREVAILING AT KCRP/KLRD/KALI. AS OF WRITING...VSBYS AT
KVCT WERE ALREADY APPROACHING IFR LEVELS WITH REDUCED VSBYS EXPCTD
TO PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. FROM KLRD EAST TO KCRP...BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING
OTHERWISE. CONDITIONS AT KVCT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MRNG
MON AND CONTINUE THRU REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS FROM KLRD
TO KCRP SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AT VFR DRNG THE DAY
MONDAY...HOWEVER SCT SHRA ARE XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI/KLRD WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIEST SHRA. HAVE PROB30
GROUPING FOR KCRP AND KALI FROM MID/LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN AND
FOR MID AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AT KLRD. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
IMPACTNG KVCT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. GENERALLY LIGHT
ERLY WINDS THRU TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS DRNG THE DAY
MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 200324
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1024 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
FOLLOW TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS
ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/DEVELOP WEST OF STATE ROAD
16 UNTIL AROUND 03Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION FROM VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN SECTIONS 12-15Z
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS MONDAY. GENERALLY LGT
E/NE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LGT EAST FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED IN MEX WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES OCCASIONALLY MOVG
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WESTERN WEBB CO. IN ADDITION...RADAR IS
SHOWING WEAK ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE CONVECTION IN MEX...IS SLOWLY MOVG NE AND
IS PROGD TO CONTINUE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE COULD STILL SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING A LULL BY LATE EVENING THEN ISOLD SHRA`S
REDVLP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND TOWARD
MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHCS FOR MON AS GUIDANCE
GREATLY VARIES. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
CRP WHILE THE GFS IS PROGING 35 PERCENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A 40
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ON MON AND KEPT THE 30`S FARTHER
WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND ARE SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTING N INTO THE S CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER WITHOUT A DEFINED BDRY/FOCUS...IT IS
HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CRP AREA ON SAT...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...WILL NOT GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
SLIGHT CHC MON EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS...WENT CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TUESDAY (NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS DRY)...AND THEN LIMITING POPS
TO JUST THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE/LOW LVL LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING
THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES SHOWING BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF HAS BEGUN CUTTING OF A LOW AND SENDING IT
DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPINNING THE LOW OFF IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS
RATHER TAKES THIS SAME TROUGH/LOW WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE DEEP NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME KEPT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THIS SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 200324 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1024 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
FOLLOW TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS
ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/DEVELOP WEST OF STATE ROAD
16 UNTIL AROUND 03Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION FROM VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN SECTIONS 12-15Z
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS MONDAY. GENERALLY LGT
E/NE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LGT EAST FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED IN MEX WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES OCCASIONALLY MOVG
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WESTERN WEBB CO. IN ADDITION...RADAR IS
SHOWING WEAK ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE CONVECTION IN MEX...IS SLOWLY MOVG NE AND
IS PROGD TO CONTINUE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE COULD STILL SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING A LULL BY LATE EVENING THEN ISOLD SHRA`S
REDVLP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND TOWARD
MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHCS FOR MON AS GUIDANCE
GREATLY VARIES. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
CRP WHILE THE GFS IS PROGING 35 PERCENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A 40
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ON MON AND KEPT THE 30`S FARTHER
WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND ARE SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTING N INTO THE S CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER WITHOUT A DEFINED BDRY/FOCUS...IT IS
HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CRP AREA ON SAT...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...WILL NOT GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
SLIGHT CHC MON EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS...WENT CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TUESDAY (NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS DRY)...AND THEN LIMITING POPS
TO JUST THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE/LOW LVL LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING
THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES SHOWING BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF HAS BEGUN CUTTING OF A LOW AND SENDING IT
DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPINNING THE LOW OFF IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS
RATHER TAKES THIS SAME TROUGH/LOW WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE DEEP NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME KEPT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THIS SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 200324 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1024 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
FOLLOW TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS
ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/DEVELOP WEST OF STATE ROAD
16 UNTIL AROUND 03Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION FROM VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN SECTIONS 12-15Z
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS MONDAY. GENERALLY LGT
E/NE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LGT EAST FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED IN MEX WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES OCCASIONALLY MOVG
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WESTERN WEBB CO. IN ADDITION...RADAR IS
SHOWING WEAK ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE CONVECTION IN MEX...IS SLOWLY MOVG NE AND
IS PROGD TO CONTINUE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE COULD STILL SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING A LULL BY LATE EVENING THEN ISOLD SHRA`S
REDVLP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND TOWARD
MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHCS FOR MON AS GUIDANCE
GREATLY VARIES. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
CRP WHILE THE GFS IS PROGING 35 PERCENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A 40
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ON MON AND KEPT THE 30`S FARTHER
WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND ARE SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTING N INTO THE S CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER WITHOUT A DEFINED BDRY/FOCUS...IT IS
HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CRP AREA ON SAT...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...WILL NOT GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
SLIGHT CHC MON EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS...WENT CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TUESDAY (NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS DRY)...AND THEN LIMITING POPS
TO JUST THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE/LOW LVL LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING
THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES SHOWING BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF HAS BEGUN CUTTING OF A LOW AND SENDING IT
DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPINNING THE LOW OFF IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS
RATHER TAKES THIS SAME TROUGH/LOW WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE DEEP NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME KEPT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THIS SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 200028
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
728 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/DEVELOP WEST OF STATE ROAD
16 UNTIL AROUND 03Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION FROM VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN SECTIONS 12-15Z
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS MONDAY. GENERALLY LGT
E/NE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LGT EAST FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED IN MEX WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES OCCASIONALLY MOVG
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WESTERN WEBB CO. IN ADDITION...RADAR IS
SHOWING WEAK ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE CONVECTION IN MEX...IS SLOWLY MOVG NE AND
IS PROGD TO CONTINUE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE COULD STILL SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING A LULL BY LATE EVENING THEN ISOLD SHRA`S
REDVLP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND TOWARD
MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHCS FOR MON AS GUIDANCE
GREATLY VARIES. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
CRP WHILE THE GFS IS PROGING 35 PERCENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A 40
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ON MON AND KEPT THE 30`S FARTHER
WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND ARE SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTING N INTO THE S CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER WITHOUT A DEFINED BDRY/FOCUS...IT IS
HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CRP AREA ON SAT...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...WILL NOT GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
SLIGHT CHC MON EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS...WENT CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TUESDAY (NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS DRY)...AND THEN LIMITING POPS
TO JUST THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE/LOW LVL LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING
THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES SHOWING BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF HAS BEGUN CUTTING OF A LOW AND SENDING IT
DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPINNING THE LOW OFF IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS
RATHER TAKES THIS SAME TROUGH/LOW WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE DEEP NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME KEPT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THIS SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 200028
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
728 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/DEVELOP WEST OF STATE ROAD
16 UNTIL AROUND 03Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION FROM VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN SECTIONS 12-15Z
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS MONDAY. GENERALLY LGT
E/NE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LGT EAST FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED IN MEX WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES OCCASIONALLY MOVG
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WESTERN WEBB CO. IN ADDITION...RADAR IS
SHOWING WEAK ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE CONVECTION IN MEX...IS SLOWLY MOVG NE AND
IS PROGD TO CONTINUE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE COULD STILL SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING A LULL BY LATE EVENING THEN ISOLD SHRA`S
REDVLP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND TOWARD
MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHCS FOR MON AS GUIDANCE
GREATLY VARIES. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
CRP WHILE THE GFS IS PROGING 35 PERCENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A 40
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ON MON AND KEPT THE 30`S FARTHER
WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND ARE SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTING N INTO THE S CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER WITHOUT A DEFINED BDRY/FOCUS...IT IS
HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CRP AREA ON SAT...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...WILL NOT GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
SLIGHT CHC MON EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS...WENT CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TUESDAY (NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS DRY)...AND THEN LIMITING POPS
TO JUST THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE/LOW LVL LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING
THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES SHOWING BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF HAS BEGUN CUTTING OF A LOW AND SENDING IT
DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPINNING THE LOW OFF IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS
RATHER TAKES THIS SAME TROUGH/LOW WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE DEEP NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME KEPT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THIS SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 192046
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED IN MEX WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES OCCASIONALLY MOVG
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WESTERN WEBB CO. IN ADDITION...RADAR IS
SHOWING WEAK ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE CONVECTION IN MEX...IS SLOWLY MOVG NE AND
IS PROGD TO CONTINUE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE COULD STILL SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING A LULL BY LATE EVENING THEN ISOLD SHRA`S
REDVLP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND TOWARD
MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHCS FOR MON AS GUIDANCE
GREATLY VARIES. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
CRP WHILE THE GFS IS PROGING 35 PERCENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A 40
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ON MON AND KEPT THE 30`S FARTHER
WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND ARE SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTING N INTO THE S CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER WITHOUT A DEFINED BDRY/FOCUS...IT IS
HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CRP AREA ON SAT...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...WILL NOT GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
SLIGHT CHC MON EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS...WENT CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TUESDAY (NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS DRY)...AND THEN LIMITING POPS
TO JUST THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE/LOW LVL LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING
THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES SHOWING BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF HAS BEGUN CUTTING OF A LOW AND SENDING IT
DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPINNING THE LOW OFF IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS
RATHER TAKES THIS SAME TROUGH/LOW WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE DEEP NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME KEPT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THIS SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 192046
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED IN MEX WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES OCCASIONALLY MOVG
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WESTERN WEBB CO. IN ADDITION...RADAR IS
SHOWING WEAK ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE CONVECTION IN MEX...IS SLOWLY MOVG NE AND
IS PROGD TO CONTINUE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE COULD STILL SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING A LULL BY LATE EVENING THEN ISOLD SHRA`S
REDVLP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND TOWARD
MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHCS FOR MON AS GUIDANCE
GREATLY VARIES. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
CRP WHILE THE GFS IS PROGING 35 PERCENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A 40
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ON MON AND KEPT THE 30`S FARTHER
WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND ARE SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTING N INTO THE S CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER WITHOUT A DEFINED BDRY/FOCUS...IT IS
HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CRP AREA ON SAT...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...WILL NOT GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
SLIGHT CHC MON EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS...WENT CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TUESDAY (NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS DRY)...AND THEN LIMITING POPS
TO JUST THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE/LOW LVL LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING
THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES SHOWING BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF HAS BEGUN CUTTING OF A LOW AND SENDING IT
DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPINNING THE LOW OFF IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS
RATHER TAKES THIS SAME TROUGH/LOW WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE DEEP NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME KEPT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THIS SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 191716
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1216 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN AND NEAR
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE LRD AREA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ALI AREA. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF S TX. BY MID MORNING ON
MON...CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR ONCE AGAIN...HOWEVER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING
LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CRP AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT ALI. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF S TX BY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS CAN BE SEEN SHIFTING SW VIA
THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWAT`S OF 1.59 INCHES. MODELS PROG THE PWAT`S TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINING CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO POPS AS GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY BETWEEN MODELS. A
55KT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...SEEN ON WV
SATELLITE...WILL TRACK NE ACROSS S TX...THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE 30-40 POPS THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE S AND W CWA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL OVER WEBB
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO RESIDE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO THAT
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR LRD AREA
TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THIS MORNING WITH MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS MOVED
INTO THE VCT AREA AND FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM IN THIS REGION.
COULD STILL SEE SOME FOG UNTIL 14Z FOR VCT AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 2500 FT EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL BEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING CRP AREA. EXPECT A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
BY EARLY EVENING WITH VFR CONDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AROUND 08Z WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME HAS MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS (EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEBB COUNTY) THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP HINTS AT A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO EARLY THIS MORNING. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 03Z
SREF MOVE THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ADEEQUATE MOISTURE WITH PWAT
VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR TODAY.
THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BROADEN EASTWARD BACK TO THE COAST FOR
MONDAY. SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM SHOW STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE GULF WATERS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. 4KM
ARW/NMM SHOWED POSSIBLE BAND OF STREAMER CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD
THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. CHANCE POPS IN ORDER
FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS AND WEST INTO THE BRUSH
COUNTRY WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
NOW INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE COUNTERBALANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...EXTENDING INTO TEXAS. BY
THURSDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW
GOM...WHICH AS AN ASIDE IS BEING MONITORED BY NHC WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE AND BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

ADDITIONALLY...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AND POPS
DOWN AS WELL. BY FRIDAY...A DEEP TROUGH AND/OR CLOSED H500 LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DESCEND OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DRYING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BRINGING NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH IT. HAVE NO MENTION OF POPS IN THE
EXTENDED BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE.
ALSO KNOCKED DOWN HIGHS AND BUMPED UP LOWS A BIT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD COVER NOW EXPECTED. OF
PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND/OR RIP CURRENTS IMPACTING THE GULF FACING BEACHES MID WEEK DUE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS...PERSISTENT MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS...AND THE OCCURRENCE OF THE NEW MOON ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
IT HAS BEEN OUTPUTTING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT HAVE DECIDED
TO WAIT UNTIL SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS COME IN BEFORE REMOVING
POSSIBLE SCA LEVEL SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  85  69  85  /  20  20  30  20  20
VICTORIA          86  64  85  64  85  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            87  70  87  68  85  /  40  20  30  20  20
ALICE             86  67  86  67  85  /  30  10  30  20  20
ROCKPORT          85  72  85  71  84  /  10  20  30  10  20
COTULLA           86  66  85  67  86  /  30  20  30  20  20
KINGSVILLE        85  69  85  69  85  /  30  20  30  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       84  73  84  73  83  /  20  20  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 191716
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1216 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN AND NEAR
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE LRD AREA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ALI AREA. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF S TX. BY MID MORNING ON
MON...CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR ONCE AGAIN...HOWEVER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING
LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CRP AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT ALI. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF S TX BY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS CAN BE SEEN SHIFTING SW VIA
THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWAT`S OF 1.59 INCHES. MODELS PROG THE PWAT`S TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINING CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO POPS AS GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY BETWEEN MODELS. A
55KT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...SEEN ON WV
SATELLITE...WILL TRACK NE ACROSS S TX...THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE 30-40 POPS THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE S AND W CWA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL OVER WEBB
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO RESIDE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO THAT
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR LRD AREA
TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THIS MORNING WITH MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS MOVED
INTO THE VCT AREA AND FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM IN THIS REGION.
COULD STILL SEE SOME FOG UNTIL 14Z FOR VCT AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 2500 FT EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL BEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING CRP AREA. EXPECT A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
BY EARLY EVENING WITH VFR CONDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AROUND 08Z WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME HAS MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS (EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEBB COUNTY) THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP HINTS AT A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO EARLY THIS MORNING. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 03Z
SREF MOVE THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ADEEQUATE MOISTURE WITH PWAT
VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR TODAY.
THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BROADEN EASTWARD BACK TO THE COAST FOR
MONDAY. SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM SHOW STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE GULF WATERS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. 4KM
ARW/NMM SHOWED POSSIBLE BAND OF STREAMER CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD
THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. CHANCE POPS IN ORDER
FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS AND WEST INTO THE BRUSH
COUNTRY WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
NOW INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE COUNTERBALANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...EXTENDING INTO TEXAS. BY
THURSDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW
GOM...WHICH AS AN ASIDE IS BEING MONITORED BY NHC WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE AND BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

ADDITIONALLY...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AND POPS
DOWN AS WELL. BY FRIDAY...A DEEP TROUGH AND/OR CLOSED H500 LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DESCEND OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DRYING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BRINGING NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH IT. HAVE NO MENTION OF POPS IN THE
EXTENDED BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE.
ALSO KNOCKED DOWN HIGHS AND BUMPED UP LOWS A BIT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD COVER NOW EXPECTED. OF
PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND/OR RIP CURRENTS IMPACTING THE GULF FACING BEACHES MID WEEK DUE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS...PERSISTENT MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS...AND THE OCCURRENCE OF THE NEW MOON ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
IT HAS BEEN OUTPUTTING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT HAVE DECIDED
TO WAIT UNTIL SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS COME IN BEFORE REMOVING
POSSIBLE SCA LEVEL SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  85  69  85  /  20  20  30  20  20
VICTORIA          86  64  85  64  85  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            87  70  87  68  85  /  40  20  30  20  20
ALICE             86  67  86  67  85  /  30  10  30  20  20
ROCKPORT          85  72  85  71  84  /  10  20  30  10  20
COTULLA           86  66  85  67  86  /  30  20  30  20  20
KINGSVILLE        85  69  85  69  85  /  30  20  30  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       84  73  84  73  83  /  20  20  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 191420
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
920 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS CAN BE SEEN SHIFTING SW VIA
THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWAT`S OF 1.59 INCHES. MODELS PROG THE PWAT`S TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINING CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO POPS AS GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY BETWEEN MODELS. A
55KT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...SEEN ON WV
SATELLITE...WILL TRACK NE ACROSS S TX...THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE 30-40 POPS THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE S AND W CWA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL OVER WEBB
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO RESIDE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO THAT
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR LRD AREA
TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THIS MORNING WITH MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS MOVED
INTO THE VCT AREA AND FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM IN THIS REGION.
COULD STILL SEE SOME FOG UNTIL 14Z FOR VCT AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 2500 FT EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL BEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING CRP AREA. EXPECT A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
BY EARLY EVENING WITH VFR CONDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AROUND 08Z WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME HAS MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS (EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEBB COUNTY) THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP HINTS AT A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO EARLY THIS MORNING. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 03Z
SREF MOVE THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ADEEQUATE MOISTURE WITH PWAT
VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR TODAY.
THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BROADEN EASTWARD BACK TO THE COAST FOR
MONDAY. SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM SHOW STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE GULF WATERS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. 4KM
ARW/NMM SHOWED POSSIBLE BAND OF STREAMER CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD
THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. CHANCE POPS IN ORDER
FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS AND WEST INTO THE BRUSH
COUNTRY WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
NOW INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE COUNTERBALANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...EXTENDING INTO TEXAS. BY
THURSDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW
GOM...WHICH AS AN ASIDE IS BEING MONITORED BY NHC WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE AND BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

ADDITIONALLY...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AND POPS
DOWN AS WELL. BY FRIDAY...A DEEP TROUGH AND/OR CLOSED H500 LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DESCEND OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DRYING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BRINGING NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH IT. HAVE NO MENTION OF POPS IN THE
EXTENDED BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE.
ALSO KNOCKED DOWN HIGHS AND BUMPED UP LOWS A BIT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD COVER NOW EXPECTED. OF
PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND/OR RIP CURRENTS IMPACTING THE GULF FACING BEACHES MID WEEK DUE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS...PERSISTENT MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS...AND THE OCCURRENCE OF THE NEW MOON ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
IT HAS BEEN OUTPUTTING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT HAVE DECIDED
TO WAIT UNTIL SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS COME IN BEFORE REMOVING
POSSIBLE SCA LEVEL SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  85  69  85  /  20  20  30  20  20
VICTORIA          86  64  85  64  85  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            87  70  87  68  85  /  40  20  30  20  20
ALICE             86  67  86  67  85  /  30  10  30  20  20
ROCKPORT          85  72  85  71  84  /  10  20  30  10  20
COTULLA           86  66  85  67  86  /  30  20  30  20  20
KINGSVILLE        85  69  85  69  85  /  30  20  30  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       84  73  84  73  83  /  20  20  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 191420
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
920 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS CAN BE SEEN SHIFTING SW VIA
THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWAT`S OF 1.59 INCHES. MODELS PROG THE PWAT`S TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINING CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO POPS AS GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY BETWEEN MODELS. A
55KT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...SEEN ON WV
SATELLITE...WILL TRACK NE ACROSS S TX...THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE 30-40 POPS THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE S AND W CWA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL OVER WEBB
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO RESIDE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO THAT
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR LRD AREA
TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THIS MORNING WITH MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS MOVED
INTO THE VCT AREA AND FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM IN THIS REGION.
COULD STILL SEE SOME FOG UNTIL 14Z FOR VCT AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 2500 FT EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL BEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING CRP AREA. EXPECT A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
BY EARLY EVENING WITH VFR CONDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AROUND 08Z WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME HAS MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS (EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEBB COUNTY) THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP HINTS AT A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO EARLY THIS MORNING. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 03Z
SREF MOVE THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ADEEQUATE MOISTURE WITH PWAT
VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR TODAY.
THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BROADEN EASTWARD BACK TO THE COAST FOR
MONDAY. SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM SHOW STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE GULF WATERS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. 4KM
ARW/NMM SHOWED POSSIBLE BAND OF STREAMER CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD
THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. CHANCE POPS IN ORDER
FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS AND WEST INTO THE BRUSH
COUNTRY WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
NOW INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE COUNTERBALANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...EXTENDING INTO TEXAS. BY
THURSDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW
GOM...WHICH AS AN ASIDE IS BEING MONITORED BY NHC WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE AND BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

ADDITIONALLY...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AND POPS
DOWN AS WELL. BY FRIDAY...A DEEP TROUGH AND/OR CLOSED H500 LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DESCEND OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DRYING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BRINGING NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH IT. HAVE NO MENTION OF POPS IN THE
EXTENDED BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE.
ALSO KNOCKED DOWN HIGHS AND BUMPED UP LOWS A BIT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD COVER NOW EXPECTED. OF
PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND/OR RIP CURRENTS IMPACTING THE GULF FACING BEACHES MID WEEK DUE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS...PERSISTENT MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS...AND THE OCCURRENCE OF THE NEW MOON ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
IT HAS BEEN OUTPUTTING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT HAVE DECIDED
TO WAIT UNTIL SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS COME IN BEFORE REMOVING
POSSIBLE SCA LEVEL SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  85  69  85  /  20  20  30  20  20
VICTORIA          86  64  85  64  85  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            87  70  87  68  85  /  40  20  30  20  20
ALICE             86  67  86  67  85  /  30  10  30  20  20
ROCKPORT          85  72  85  71  84  /  10  20  30  10  20
COTULLA           86  66  85  67  86  /  30  20  30  20  20
KINGSVILLE        85  69  85  69  85  /  30  20  30  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       84  73  84  73  83  /  20  20  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






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