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000
FXUS64 KCRP 101157
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
557 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...

NO CHANGES FROM THE 06Z TAFS.

TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME DOMINANT BUT
EXPECT A SEA BREEZE TO NEAR OR PUSH THROUGH KCRP LATE AFTERNOON
BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND 6 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

VERY BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGING IN PLACE OVERHEAD...ONLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN. LOTS
OF SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING KEEPING OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE AND NO CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO NEAR 80F ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND. THINKING ANY SEABREEZE FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT MOVE
INTO OUR INTERIOR COASTAL SITES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SO TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER-70S IN SPOTS.

CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECREASING WINDS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID-
40S...WARMER ALONG THE COAST WITH BETTER ONSHORE FLOW.

MUCH THE SAME ON THURSDAY AS TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...LOW-80S IN A LOT MORE PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SPOTS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS THOUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE AT H5. WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET OVERHEAD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. WHAT THIS TRANSLATES
TO IS DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE BY SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS WITH AIDE FROM THE NEXT H5
TROUGH. MODELS MAINTAIN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE
NORTH...WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDING INTO EAST TEXAS. MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO MONDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL DEVELOP
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND THURSDAY HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER EACH AFTERNOON PROBABLY OFFSETTING MORE
MOISTURE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT
WEST INTO THE MID-30S EAST EACH AFTERNOON. TODAY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TO PRECLUDE ANY ISSUES. THAT BEING SAID THURSDAY
COULD SEE DEEPER MIXING...WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND MIX OUT
THE DEWPOINTS EVEN FURTHER WITH MORE GUSTS...AROUND 25MPH...CREATING
MORE FIRE SPREAD ISSUES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WILL
FOREGO ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  50  81  57  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          73  46  77  54  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            81  49  83  55  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  47  84  53  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  57  72  58  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  46  83  48  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        78  47  82  55  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       72  56  74  59  74  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 101157
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
557 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...

NO CHANGES FROM THE 06Z TAFS.

TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME DOMINANT BUT
EXPECT A SEA BREEZE TO NEAR OR PUSH THROUGH KCRP LATE AFTERNOON
BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND 6 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

VERY BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGING IN PLACE OVERHEAD...ONLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN. LOTS
OF SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING KEEPING OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE AND NO CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO NEAR 80F ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND. THINKING ANY SEABREEZE FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT MOVE
INTO OUR INTERIOR COASTAL SITES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SO TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER-70S IN SPOTS.

CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECREASING WINDS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID-
40S...WARMER ALONG THE COAST WITH BETTER ONSHORE FLOW.

MUCH THE SAME ON THURSDAY AS TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...LOW-80S IN A LOT MORE PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SPOTS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS THOUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE AT H5. WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET OVERHEAD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. WHAT THIS TRANSLATES
TO IS DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE BY SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS WITH AIDE FROM THE NEXT H5
TROUGH. MODELS MAINTAIN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE
NORTH...WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDING INTO EAST TEXAS. MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO MONDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL DEVELOP
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND THURSDAY HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER EACH AFTERNOON PROBABLY OFFSETTING MORE
MOISTURE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT
WEST INTO THE MID-30S EAST EACH AFTERNOON. TODAY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TO PRECLUDE ANY ISSUES. THAT BEING SAID THURSDAY
COULD SEE DEEPER MIXING...WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND MIX OUT
THE DEWPOINTS EVEN FURTHER WITH MORE GUSTS...AROUND 25MPH...CREATING
MORE FIRE SPREAD ISSUES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WILL
FOREGO ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  50  81  57  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          73  46  77  54  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            81  49  83  55  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  47  84  53  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  57  72  58  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  46  83  48  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        78  47  82  55  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       72  56  74  59  74  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 101157
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
557 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...

NO CHANGES FROM THE 06Z TAFS.

TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME DOMINANT BUT
EXPECT A SEA BREEZE TO NEAR OR PUSH THROUGH KCRP LATE AFTERNOON
BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND 6 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

VERY BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGING IN PLACE OVERHEAD...ONLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN. LOTS
OF SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING KEEPING OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE AND NO CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO NEAR 80F ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND. THINKING ANY SEABREEZE FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT MOVE
INTO OUR INTERIOR COASTAL SITES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SO TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER-70S IN SPOTS.

CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECREASING WINDS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID-
40S...WARMER ALONG THE COAST WITH BETTER ONSHORE FLOW.

MUCH THE SAME ON THURSDAY AS TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...LOW-80S IN A LOT MORE PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SPOTS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS THOUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE AT H5. WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET OVERHEAD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. WHAT THIS TRANSLATES
TO IS DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE BY SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS WITH AIDE FROM THE NEXT H5
TROUGH. MODELS MAINTAIN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE
NORTH...WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDING INTO EAST TEXAS. MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO MONDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL DEVELOP
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND THURSDAY HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER EACH AFTERNOON PROBABLY OFFSETTING MORE
MOISTURE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT
WEST INTO THE MID-30S EAST EACH AFTERNOON. TODAY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TO PRECLUDE ANY ISSUES. THAT BEING SAID THURSDAY
COULD SEE DEEPER MIXING...WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND MIX OUT
THE DEWPOINTS EVEN FURTHER WITH MORE GUSTS...AROUND 25MPH...CREATING
MORE FIRE SPREAD ISSUES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WILL
FOREGO ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  50  81  57  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          73  46  77  54  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            81  49  83  55  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  47  84  53  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  57  72  58  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  46  83  48  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        78  47  82  55  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       72  56  74  59  74  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 101002
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

VERY BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGING IN PLACE OVERHEAD...ONLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN. LOTS
OF SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING KEEPING OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE AND NO CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO NEAR 80F ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND. THINKING ANY SEABREEZE FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT MOVE
INTO OUR INTERIOR COASTAL SITES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SO TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER-70S IN SPOTS.

CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECREASING WINDS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID-
40S...WARMER ALONG THE COAST WITH BETTER ONSHORE FLOW.

MUCH THE SAME ON THURSDAY AS TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...LOW-80S IN A LOT MORE PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS THOUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE AT H5. WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET OVERHEAD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. WHAT THIS TRANSLATES
TO IS DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE BY SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS WITH AIDE FROM THE NEXT H5
TROUGH. MODELS MAINTAIN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE
NORTH...WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDING INTO EAST TEXAS. MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL DEVELOP
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND THURSDAY HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER EACH AFTERNOON PROBABLY OFFSETTING MORE
MOISTURE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT
WEST INTO THE MID-30S EAST EACH AFTERNOON. TODAY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TO PRECLUDE ANY ISSUES. THAT BEING SAID THURSDAY
COULD SEE DEEPER MIXING...WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND MIX OUT
THE DEWPOINTS EVEN FURTHER WITH MORE GUSTS...AROUND 25MPH...CREATING
MORE FIRE SPREAD ISSUES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WILL
FOREGO ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  50  81  57  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          73  46  77  54  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            81  49  83  55  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  47  84  53  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  57  72  58  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  46  83  48  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        78  47  82  55  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       72  56  74  59  74  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM/FIRE WX
CB/85...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 100551
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1151 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

OVERNIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME DOMINANT BUT EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE TO NEAR OR PUSH THROUGH KCRP LATE AFTERNOON BACKING
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL FAIR
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE GULF
TOMORROW. DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PREVAIL...BUT WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING...DEWPOINTS WILL START TO SLOWLY CLIMB
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH
THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME...DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL BE A
RESULT OF PERSISTENT MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND ANY ARCTIC
INTRUSIONS REMAINING WELL NE OF THE AREA. COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AS MSTR INCREASES AHEAD OF A DYING COLD
FRONT OTHERWISE NO POPS IN THE FCST. CONTINUED PREV TREND OF
TEMPS WARMER THAN HPC/MEX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    44  76  53  79  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          40  73  50  77  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            45  80  53  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             42  79  51  82  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          47  72  57  74  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           40  79  48  81  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        42  79  52  80  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       50  72  59  75  61  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 100551
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1151 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

OVERNIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME DOMINANT BUT EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE TO NEAR OR PUSH THROUGH KCRP LATE AFTERNOON BACKING
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL FAIR
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE GULF
TOMORROW. DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PREVAIL...BUT WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING...DEWPOINTS WILL START TO SLOWLY CLIMB
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH
THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME...DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL BE A
RESULT OF PERSISTENT MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND ANY ARCTIC
INTRUSIONS REMAINING WELL NE OF THE AREA. COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AS MSTR INCREASES AHEAD OF A DYING COLD
FRONT OTHERWISE NO POPS IN THE FCST. CONTINUED PREV TREND OF
TEMPS WARMER THAN HPC/MEX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    44  76  53  79  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          40  73  50  77  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            45  80  53  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             42  79  51  82  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          47  72  57  74  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           40  79  48  81  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        42  79  52  80  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       50  72  59  75  61  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 100551
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1151 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

OVERNIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME DOMINANT BUT EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE TO NEAR OR PUSH THROUGH KCRP LATE AFTERNOON BACKING
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL FAIR
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE GULF
TOMORROW. DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PREVAIL...BUT WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING...DEWPOINTS WILL START TO SLOWLY CLIMB
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH
THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME...DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL BE A
RESULT OF PERSISTENT MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND ANY ARCTIC
INTRUSIONS REMAINING WELL NE OF THE AREA. COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AS MSTR INCREASES AHEAD OF A DYING COLD
FRONT OTHERWISE NO POPS IN THE FCST. CONTINUED PREV TREND OF
TEMPS WARMER THAN HPC/MEX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    44  76  53  79  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          40  73  50  77  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            45  80  53  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             42  79  51  82  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          47  72  57  74  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           40  79  48  81  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        42  79  52  80  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       50  72  59  75  61  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 092324
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
524 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING.
EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE GUSTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL FAIR
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE GULF
TOMORROW. DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PREVAIL...BUT WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING...DEWPOINTS WILL START TO SLOWLY CLIMB
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH
THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME...DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL BE A
RESULT OF PERSISTENT MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND ANY ARCTIC
INTRUSIONS REMAINING WELL NE OF THE AREA. COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AS MSTR INCREASES AHEAD OF A DYING COLD
FRONT OTHERWISE NO POPS IN THE FCST. CONTINUED PREV TREND OF
TEMPS WARMER THAN HPC/MEX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    44  76  53  79  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          40  73  50  77  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            45  80  53  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             42  79  51  82  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          47  72  57  74  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           40  79  48  81  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        42  79  52  80  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       50  72  59  75  61  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 092324
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
524 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING.
EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE GUSTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL FAIR
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE GULF
TOMORROW. DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PREVAIL...BUT WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING...DEWPOINTS WILL START TO SLOWLY CLIMB
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH
THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME...DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL BE A
RESULT OF PERSISTENT MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND ANY ARCTIC
INTRUSIONS REMAINING WELL NE OF THE AREA. COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AS MSTR INCREASES AHEAD OF A DYING COLD
FRONT OTHERWISE NO POPS IN THE FCST. CONTINUED PREV TREND OF
TEMPS WARMER THAN HPC/MEX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    44  76  53  79  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          40  73  50  77  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            45  80  53  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             42  79  51  82  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          47  72  57  74  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           40  79  48  81  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        42  79  52  80  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       50  72  59  75  61  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 092012
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
212 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL FAIR
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE GULF
TOMORROW. DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PREVAIL...BUT WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING...DEWPOINTS WILL START TO SLOWLY CLIMB
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH
THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME...DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL BE A
RESULT OF PERSISTENT MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND ANY ARCTIC
INTRUSIONS REMAINING WELL NE OF THE AREA. COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AS MSTR INCREASES AHEAD OF A DYING COLD
FRONT OTHERWISE NO POPS IN THE FCST. CONTINUED PREV TREND OF
TEMPS WARMER THAN HPC/MEX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    44  76  53  79  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          40  73  50  77  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            45  80  53  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             42  79  51  82  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          47  72  57  74  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           40  79  48  81  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        42  79  52  80  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       50  72  59  75  61  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 092012
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
212 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL FAIR
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE GULF
TOMORROW. DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PREVAIL...BUT WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING...DEWPOINTS WILL START TO SLOWLY CLIMB
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH
THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME...DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL BE A
RESULT OF PERSISTENT MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND ANY ARCTIC
INTRUSIONS REMAINING WELL NE OF THE AREA. COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AS MSTR INCREASES AHEAD OF A DYING COLD
FRONT OTHERWISE NO POPS IN THE FCST. CONTINUED PREV TREND OF
TEMPS WARMER THAN HPC/MEX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    44  76  53  79  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          40  73  50  77  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            45  80  53  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             42  79  51  82  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          47  72  57  74  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           40  79  48  81  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        42  79  52  80  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       50  72  59  75  61  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 091732
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1132 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWEST LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  44  77  55  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          68  39  74  49  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            75  45  80  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             74  42  79  51  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          68  46  72  56  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  41  79  49  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        72  42  77  51  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  49  71  60  75  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 091732
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1132 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWEST LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  44  77  55  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          68  39  74  49  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            75  45  80  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             74  42  79  51  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          68  46  72  56  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  41  79  49  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        72  42  77  51  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  49  71  60  75  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 091732
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1132 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWEST LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  44  77  55  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          68  39  74  49  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            75  45  80  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             74  42  79  51  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          68  46  72  56  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  41  79  49  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        72  42  77  51  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  49  71  60  75  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 091130 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
530 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS PREVAIL TODAY AS SFC HIGH SLIDES
SOUTH. MAY SEE GUSTS 10-15KT FOR COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTN BEFORE
WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A MORE
STEADY S-LY FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR LRD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE H5 TROUGH AND H25 JET
LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE LOW 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...HOWEVER LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY LEAD TO A FEW LOCATIONS INLAND TO DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER
DANGER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN CHANGE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS
WEEKEND...AS IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PROGGED
TO BACK-DOOR AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL MORE LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SOUTH TEXAS.
TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FETCH
PROGGED BY THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH IF THE AIR MASS WILL BE THAT COLD
IT HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR GETTING INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA (HOWEVER DO NOT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN). AS A RESULT...AM
GOING WARMER BUT NOT AS WARM AS MOS OR GFS-ECMWF 2 METER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST VALUES...NOR THE BIAS-ADJUSTED/CORRECTED
VALUES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN THAT...DID MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY - MONDAY MAINLY GULF WATERS BUT
ALSO SCRAPING A SMALL AMOUNT OF THE NORTHEAST INLAND AREAS...AS
IMPULSE FINALLY HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (WITH FRONT NOT
COMING THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND LIKE EXPECTED) AND POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH AND DRY BEFORE THAT WITH NOT MUCH CLOUD
COVER UNTIL THE WEEKEND THEN MORE CLOUDS...WITH A NICE WARMING
TREND BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE WEEKEND ENSUES
AND MORE CLOUDS COME IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  44  77  55  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          68  39  74  49  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            75  45  80  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             74  42  79  51  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          68  46  72  56  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  41  79  49  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        72  42  77  51  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  49  71  60  75  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 090958
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
358 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE H5 TROUGH AND H25 JET
LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE LOW 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...HOWEVER LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY LEAD TO A FEW LOCATIONS INLAND TO DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER
DANGER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN CHANGE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS
WEEKEND...AS IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PROGGED
TO BACK-DOOR AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL MORE LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SOUTH TEXAS.
TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FETCH
PROGGED BY THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH IF THE AIR MASS WILL BE THAT COLD
IT HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR GETTING INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA (HOWEVER DO NOT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN). AS A RESULT...AM
GOING WARMER BUT NOT AS WARM AS MOS OR GFS-ECMWF 2 METER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST VALUES...NOR THE BIAS-ADJUSTED/CORRECTED
VALUES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN THAT...DID MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY - MONDAY MAINLY GULF WATERS BUT
ALSO SCRAPING A SMALL AMOUNT OF THE NORTHEAST INLAND AREAS...AS
IMPULSE FINALLY HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (WITH FRONT NOT
COMING THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND LIKE EXPECTED) AND POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH AND DRY BEFORE THAT WITH NOT MUCH CLOUD
COVER UNTIL THE WEEKEND THEN MORE CLOUDS...WITH A NICE WARMING
TREND BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE WEEKEND ENSUES
AND MORE CLOUDS COME IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  44  77  55  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          68  39  74  49  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            75  45  80  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             74  42  79  51  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          68  46  72  56  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  41  79  49  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        72  42  77  51  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  49  71  60  75  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 090958
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
358 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE H5 TROUGH AND H25 JET
LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE LOW 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...HOWEVER LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY LEAD TO A FEW LOCATIONS INLAND TO DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER
DANGER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN CHANGE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS
WEEKEND...AS IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PROGGED
TO BACK-DOOR AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL MORE LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SOUTH TEXAS.
TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FETCH
PROGGED BY THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH IF THE AIR MASS WILL BE THAT COLD
IT HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR GETTING INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA (HOWEVER DO NOT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN). AS A RESULT...AM
GOING WARMER BUT NOT AS WARM AS MOS OR GFS-ECMWF 2 METER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST VALUES...NOR THE BIAS-ADJUSTED/CORRECTED
VALUES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN THAT...DID MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY - MONDAY MAINLY GULF WATERS BUT
ALSO SCRAPING A SMALL AMOUNT OF THE NORTHEAST INLAND AREAS...AS
IMPULSE FINALLY HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (WITH FRONT NOT
COMING THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND LIKE EXPECTED) AND POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH AND DRY BEFORE THAT WITH NOT MUCH CLOUD
COVER UNTIL THE WEEKEND THEN MORE CLOUDS...WITH A NICE WARMING
TREND BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE WEEKEND ENSUES
AND MORE CLOUDS COME IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  44  77  55  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          68  39  74  49  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            75  45  80  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             74  42  79  51  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          68  46  72  56  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  41  79  49  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        72  42  77  51  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  49  71  60  75  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 090450
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1050 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HAVE ONLY VERY HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL HAVE LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS DECREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
PREVAIL IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND A
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE REST
OF THE MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE REGION. HIGH
CIRRUS LINGER OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW...AND
WITH MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND. MOISTURE WILL
START TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE COASTAL BEND AS WINDS SWING AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
SOUTH TEXAS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING THE RISK FOR FIRE DANGER.

LONG TERM....LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...QUIET WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF POLAR AIR MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE SCEC CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOR SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY PUSHING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION MONDAY. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS MARGINAL AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    40  71  45  75  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          36  68  40  73  47  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            41  74  44  80  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             40  74  41  79  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          41  68  48  70  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           37  73  41  79  48  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        40  72  41  78  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       49  68  49  70  56  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 090006
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
606 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
PREVAIL IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND A
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE REST
OF THE MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE REGION. HIGH
CIRRUS LINGER OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW...AND
WITH MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND. MOISTURE WILL
START TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE COASTAL BEND AS WINDS SWING AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
SOUTH TEXAS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING THE RISK FOR FIRE DANGER.

LONG TERM....LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...QUIET WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF POLAR AIR MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE SCEC CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOR SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY PUSHING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION MONDAY. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS MARGINAL AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    38  71  45  75  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          35  68  40  73  47  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            42  74  44  80  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             37  74  41  79  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          41  68  48  70  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           37  73  41  79  48  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        38  72  41  78  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       47  68  49  70  56  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 082051
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
251 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
PREVAIL IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND A
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE REST
OF THE MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE REGION. HIGH
CIRRUS LINGER OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW...AND
WITH MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND. MOISTURE WILL
START TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE COASTAL BEND AS WINDS SWING AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER.



&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
SOUTH TEXAS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING THE RISK FOR FIRE DANGER.

&&

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...QUIET WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF POLAR AIR MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE SCEC CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOR SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY PUSHING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION MONDAY. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS MARGINAL AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    38  71  45  75  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          35  68  40  73  47  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            42  74  44  80  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             37  74  41  79  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          41  68  48  70  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           37  73  41  79  48  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        38  72  41  78  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       47  68  49  70  56  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
     SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 082051
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
251 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
PREVAIL IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND A
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE REST
OF THE MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE REGION. HIGH
CIRRUS LINGER OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW...AND
WITH MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND. MOISTURE WILL
START TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE COASTAL BEND AS WINDS SWING AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER.



&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
SOUTH TEXAS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING THE RISK FOR FIRE DANGER.

&&

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...QUIET WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF POLAR AIR MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE SCEC CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOR SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY PUSHING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION MONDAY. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS MARGINAL AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    38  71  45  75  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          35  68  40  73  47  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            42  74  44  80  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             37  74  41  79  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          41  68  48  70  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           37  73  41  79  48  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        38  72  41  78  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       47  68  49  70  56  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
     SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 081740
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1140 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER OVER
THE REGION...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    39  71  45  76  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          35  66  40  73  48  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            40  73  45  79  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             38  71  42  79  50  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          40  66  47  71  54  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           36  71  42  78  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        38  71  42  77  50  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       45  67  48  72  57  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
     SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 081200 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS TAF SET. FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH GUSTY N-LY WINDS FOR LATE MRNG THRU AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND BACKING
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS EVNG...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LOOKING AT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE LATEST LAPS SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
MODELS FORECAST BY AN HOUR OR SO. STILL EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 6AM-8AM. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. BIGGEST CONCERN FOCUSES ON
FIRE WEATHER DANGER AS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY
SHOULD PRECLUDE FIRE DANGER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO WARM INTO THE 60S /MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS/
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE COLDER AIR IS LAGGING. BUT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...IN FACT CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
INLAND...ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING ANY FURTHER. SUNSHINE TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S EAST TO LOW 70S WEST.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TODAY IN WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED FARTHER WEST TODAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED
WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS STRONG OVER LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES...YET REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR THE FAR
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...RELATIVELY QUIET AND
SIMPLE FORECAST INITIALLY...THEN MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON HOW
STRONG TO KEEP RIDGE AND WHETHER WE WILL HAVE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
WEEKEND (AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA)...AND
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
SOME RAIN BY SUNDAY. DRY AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
INITIALLY (PWATS AOB 0.5 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY)...WITH UPPER
RIDGE HOLDING STRONG. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY (GFS IS CLOSER WITH BOUNDARY BUT IN
ANY CASE AM GOING TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA). BY
SATURDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING WIND SHIFT/WEAK FRONT INTO THE
NORTHEAST/EASTERN PORTIONS OF AS IMPULSE OF ENERGY MOVES NORTHEAST
OF AREA. AM NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR GIVEN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. IN ANY CASE...PWATS BY SATURDAY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS AND MORE DEFINITELY BY SUNDAY...WITH ECMWF SHOWING
AN IMPULSE OF ENERGY LATE SUNDAY (SUNDAY NIGHT) OVER THE NORTHEAST
WHILE GFS IS KEEPING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW...AM GOING TO
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY (IF IT EVEN GETS
THAT FAR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND) AND SINCE IT HAS NOT RAINED MUCH AS OF
LATE...NO NEED ADDING RAIN CHANCES THAT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
(CANADIAN MODEL ALSO TENDING TO KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF RAIN OUT
OF THE AREA). THUS...WITH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT
FROPA THIS WEEKEND...AM GOING TO GO A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT THE MOS
IS ADVERTISING AFTER FRIDAY BUT WILL COOL THINGS A BIT AS THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE LESS SUNSHINE THAN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED.

BEFORE FRIDAY...NICE WARMING TREND ENSUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE SOME 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. STARTING OFF THE DAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR OR ABOVE 50 ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AND 50S ON FRIDAY MORNING.  AFTER THAT...WILL DIMINISH
TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY. PLENTY
OF TIME TO ADJUST LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST AND EVENTUALLY
INCLUDE A MENTION OF RAIN IF NEED BE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  39  71  45  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          64  35  66  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            69  40  73  45  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             68  38  71  42  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  40  66  47  71  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           68  36  71  42  78  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        68  38  71  42  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  45  67  48  72  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...
     CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...
     MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 080954
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
354 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LOOKING AT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE LATEST LAPS SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
MODELS FORECAST BY AN HOUR OR SO. STILL EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 6AM-8AM. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. BIGGEST CONCERN FOCUSES ON
FIRE WEATHER DANGER AS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY
SHOULD PRECLUDE FIRE DANGER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO WARM INTO THE 60S /MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS/
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE COLDER AIR IS LAGGING. BUT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...IN FACT CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
INLAND...ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING ANY FURTHER. SUNSHINE TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S EAST TO LOW 70S WEST.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TODAY IN WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED FARTHER WEST TODAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED
WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS STRONG OVER LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES...YET REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR THE FAR
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...RELATIVELY QUIET AND
SIMPLE FORECAST INITIALLY...THEN MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON HOW
STRONG TO KEEP RIDGE AND WHETHER WE WILL HAVE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
WEEKEND (AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA)...AND
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
SOME RAIN BY SUNDAY. DRY AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
INITIALLY (PWATS AOB 0.5 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY)...WITH UPPER
RIDGE HOLDING STRONG. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY (GFS IS CLOSER WITH BOUNDARY BUT IN
ANY CASE AM GOING TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA). BY
SATURDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING WIND SHIFT/WEAK FRONT INTO THE
NORTHEAST/EASTERN PORTIONS OF AS IMPULSE OF ENERGY MOVES NORTHEAST
OF AREA. AM NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR GIVEN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. IN ANY CASE...PWATS BY SATURDAY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS AND MORE DEFINITELY BY SUNDAY...WITH ECMWF SHOWING
AN IMPULSE OF ENERGY LATE SUNDAY (SUNDAY NIGHT) OVER THE NORTHEAST
WHILE GFS IS KEEPING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW...AM GOING TO
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY (IF IT EVEN GETS
THAT FAR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND) AND SINCE IT HAS NOT RAINED MUCH AS OF
LATE...NO NEED ADDING RAIN CHANCES THAT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
(CANADIAN MODEL ALSO TENDING TO KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF RAIN OUT
OF THE AREA). THUS...WITH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT
FROPA THIS WEEKEND...AM GOING TO GO A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT THE MOS
IS ADVERTISING AFTER FRIDAY BUT WILL COOL THINGS A BIT AS THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE LESS SUNSHINE THAN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED.

BEFORE FRIDAY...NICE WARMING TREND ENSUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE SOME 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. STARTING OFF THE DAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR OR ABOVE 50 ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AND 50S ON FRIDAY MORNING.  AFTER THAT...WILL DIMINISH
TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY. PLENTY
OF TIME TO ADJUST LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST AND EVENTUALLY
INCLUDE A MENTION OF RAIN IF NEED BE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  39  71  45  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          64  35  66  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            69  40  73  45  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             68  38  71  42  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  40  66  47  71  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           68  36  71  42  78  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        68  38  71  42  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  45  67  48  72  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...
     CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...
     MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 080454
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1054 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
MONDAY...

HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH THICKER CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NAM12 CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE CIRRUS
STICKING AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING EVEN HIGHER AND THINNING OUT. THIS WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SOUTH OF VICTORIA CROSSROADS AS THEY WILL
REMAIN THE CLEAR-IST OF EVERY ONE. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS
UPWARDS A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE MID-MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

06Z AVIATION DISCO IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

NO CHANGES FORESEEN TO THE 06Z TAFS AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT
TIMING AND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT STILL LOOK SOLID.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING AFTER 09-10Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS THE
NEWEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TIMING OF THE POST-COLD
FRONTAL WINDS COINCIDE WITH THE DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. THINK THAT AREAS NORTH OF HWY 181 WILL SEE THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR...AROUND 19-20Z...WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEPER MIXING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT ON TRACK
TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT
TIMING LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH THE FRONT
LIKELY OFFSHORE BY 6AM. DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. 925MB WINDS QUITE A
BIT STRONGER THAN MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT AT THE TIME
OF STRONGEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE MAXIMIZING MIXING POTENTIAL.
EXPECT MIXING TO REALLY SET UP BY AROUND 9AM...WHATEVER WIND IS
LEFT AT THAT TIME WOULD MIX DOWN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING... AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE
EASTWARD. EXPECT WEAKENING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. SHOULD
SEE A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW
HUMIDITY...AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BECOME ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE RIDGE CAMPS OUT OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REACHING AS HIGH AS THE MID 80S NEAR
LAREDO. MODELS SHOWS A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVING
DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THE
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION.

MARINE...EXPECT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND COLD
FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    46  67  39  68  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          42  63  37  65  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            46  69  40  72  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             44  68  39  70  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          48  65  40  66  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           42  68  36  70  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        45  68  41  69  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       52  65  48  64  50  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 080454
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1054 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
MONDAY...

HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH THICKER CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NAM12 CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE CIRRUS
STICKING AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING EVEN HIGHER AND THINNING OUT. THIS WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SOUTH OF VICTORIA CROSSROADS AS THEY WILL
REMAIN THE CLEAR-IST OF EVERY ONE. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS
UPWARDS A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE MID-MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

06Z AVIATION DISCO IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

NO CHANGES FORESEEN TO THE 06Z TAFS AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT
TIMING AND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT STILL LOOK SOLID.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING AFTER 09-10Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS THE
NEWEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TIMING OF THE POST-COLD
FRONTAL WINDS COINCIDE WITH THE DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. THINK THAT AREAS NORTH OF HWY 181 WILL SEE THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR...AROUND 19-20Z...WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEPER MIXING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT ON TRACK
TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT
TIMING LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH THE FRONT
LIKELY OFFSHORE BY 6AM. DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. 925MB WINDS QUITE A
BIT STRONGER THAN MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT AT THE TIME
OF STRONGEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE MAXIMIZING MIXING POTENTIAL.
EXPECT MIXING TO REALLY SET UP BY AROUND 9AM...WHATEVER WIND IS
LEFT AT THAT TIME WOULD MIX DOWN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING... AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE
EASTWARD. EXPECT WEAKENING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. SHOULD
SEE A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW
HUMIDITY...AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BECOME ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE RIDGE CAMPS OUT OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REACHING AS HIGH AS THE MID 80S NEAR
LAREDO. MODELS SHOWS A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVING
DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THE
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION.

MARINE...EXPECT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND COLD
FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    46  67  39  68  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          42  63  37  65  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            46  69  40  72  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             44  68  39  70  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          48  65  40  66  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           42  68  36  70  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        45  68  41  69  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       52  65  48  64  50  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 072344
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
544 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING AFTER 09-10Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT ON TRACK
TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT
TIMING LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH THE FRONT
LIKELY OFFSHORE BY 6AM. DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. 925MB WINDS QUITE A
BIT STRONGER THAN MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT AT THE TIME
OF STRONGEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE MAXIMIZING MIXING POTENTIAL.
EXPECT MIXING TO REALLY SET UP BY AROUND 9AM...WHATEVER WIND IS
LEFT AT THAT TIME WOULD MIX DOWN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING... AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE
EASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY...IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...HOW
WILL THIS LINE UP WITH DECREASING RH LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NOT QUITE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE TIMING OF EACH OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL
BE COINCIDENT. EXPECT WEAKENING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
SHOULD SEE A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW
HUMIDITY...AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BECOME ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE RIDGE CAMPS OUT OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REACHING AS HIGH AS THE MID 80S NEAR
LAREDO. MODELS SHOWS A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVING
DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THE
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION.

MARINE...EXPECT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND COLD
FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    44  67  39  68  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          42  63  37  65  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            46  69  40  72  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             44  68  39  70  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          48  65  40  66  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           42  68  36  70  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        45  68  41  69  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       52  65  48  64  50  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
     KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

XX/99...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 072344
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
544 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING AFTER 09-10Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT ON TRACK
TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT
TIMING LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH THE FRONT
LIKELY OFFSHORE BY 6AM. DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. 925MB WINDS QUITE A
BIT STRONGER THAN MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT AT THE TIME
OF STRONGEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE MAXIMIZING MIXING POTENTIAL.
EXPECT MIXING TO REALLY SET UP BY AROUND 9AM...WHATEVER WIND IS
LEFT AT THAT TIME WOULD MIX DOWN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING... AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE
EASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY...IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...HOW
WILL THIS LINE UP WITH DECREASING RH LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NOT QUITE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE TIMING OF EACH OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL
BE COINCIDENT. EXPECT WEAKENING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
SHOULD SEE A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW
HUMIDITY...AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BECOME ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE RIDGE CAMPS OUT OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REACHING AS HIGH AS THE MID 80S NEAR
LAREDO. MODELS SHOWS A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVING
DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THE
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION.

MARINE...EXPECT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND COLD
FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    44  67  39  68  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          42  63  37  65  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            46  69  40  72  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             44  68  39  70  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          48  65  40  66  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           42  68  36  70  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        45  68  41  69  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       52  65  48  64  50  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
     KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

XX/99...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 072129
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
329 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT ON TRACK
TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT
TIMING LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH THE FRONT
LIKELY OFFSHORE BY 6AM. DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. 925MB WINDS QUITE A
BIT STRONGER THAN MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT AT THE TIME
OF STRONGEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE MAXIMIZING MIXING POTENTIAL.
EXPECT MIXING TO REALLY SET UP BY AROUND 9AM...WHATEVER WIND IS
LEFT AT THAT TIME WOULD MIX DOWN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING... AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE
EASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY...IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...HOW
WILL THIS LINE UP WITH DECREASING RH LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NOT QUITE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE TIMING OF EACH OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL
BE COINCIDENT. EXPECT WEAKENING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
SHOULD SEE A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW
HUMIDITY...AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BECOME ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE RIDGE CAMPS OUT OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REACHING AS HIGH AS THE MID 80S NEAR
LAREDO. MODELS SHOWS A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVING
DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THE
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND COLD
FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    44  67  39  68  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          42  63  37  65  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            46  69  40  72  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             44  68  39  70  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          48  65  40  66  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           42  68  36  70  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        45  68  41  69  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       52  65  48  64  50  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
     KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 072129
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
329 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT ON TRACK
TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT
TIMING LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH THE FRONT
LIKELY OFFSHORE BY 6AM. DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. 925MB WINDS QUITE A
BIT STRONGER THAN MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT AT THE TIME
OF STRONGEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE MAXIMIZING MIXING POTENTIAL.
EXPECT MIXING TO REALLY SET UP BY AROUND 9AM...WHATEVER WIND IS
LEFT AT THAT TIME WOULD MIX DOWN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING... AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE
EASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY...IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...HOW
WILL THIS LINE UP WITH DECREASING RH LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NOT QUITE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE TIMING OF EACH OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL
BE COINCIDENT. EXPECT WEAKENING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
SHOULD SEE A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW
HUMIDITY...AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BECOME ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE RIDGE CAMPS OUT OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REACHING AS HIGH AS THE MID 80S NEAR
LAREDO. MODELS SHOWS A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVING
DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THE
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND COLD
FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    44  67  39  68  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          42  63  37  65  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            46  69  40  72  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             44  68  39  70  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          48  65  40  66  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           42  68  36  70  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        45  68  41  69  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       52  65  48  64  50  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
     KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 072129
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
329 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT ON TRACK
TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT
TIMING LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH THE FRONT
LIKELY OFFSHORE BY 6AM. DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. 925MB WINDS QUITE A
BIT STRONGER THAN MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT AT THE TIME
OF STRONGEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE MAXIMIZING MIXING POTENTIAL.
EXPECT MIXING TO REALLY SET UP BY AROUND 9AM...WHATEVER WIND IS
LEFT AT THAT TIME WOULD MIX DOWN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING... AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE
EASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY...IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...HOW
WILL THIS LINE UP WITH DECREASING RH LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NOT QUITE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE TIMING OF EACH OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL
BE COINCIDENT. EXPECT WEAKENING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
SHOULD SEE A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW
HUMIDITY...AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BECOME ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE RIDGE CAMPS OUT OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REACHING AS HIGH AS THE MID 80S NEAR
LAREDO. MODELS SHOWS A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVING
DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THE
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND COLD
FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    44  67  39  68  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          42  63  37  65  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            46  69  40  72  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             44  68  39  70  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          48  65  40  66  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           42  68  36  70  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        45  68  41  69  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       52  65  48  64  50  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
     KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 071741
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1141 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOWARD SUNRISE.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN A MORE NORTH-SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AND
ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONT TO COME DOWN MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
NOT EXPECTED AS ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE NO TIME TO GET ANY NOTABLE
MOISTURE BACK. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WINDS AND WHETHER
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SITUATION ON
MONDAY (SEE DISCUSSION ON FIRE WEATHER BELOW).

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RETURN OF
MOISTURE...AGAIN NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT. NICE
DAY IN STORE...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE. AM
GOING TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
GIVEN THE FACT THAT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY (850 MB WEST WINDS) AND SOME LOCATIONS SAW
TEMPERATURES AOA 70 DEGREES YESTERDAY. FRONT COMES DOWN BY 12Z
MONDAY (GETS TO CLOSE TO THE COAST)...SO WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S MOST AREAS...AND MAYBE SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE CWFA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE WARMER VALUES AGAIN ON MONDAY
GIVEN 2 METER AND 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY.

FIRE WEATHER (MONDAY)...FIRE WEATHER PROCEDURE SHOWS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY FOR A SHORT TIME OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND A BIT LONGER OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND GOLIAD/VICTORIA AREA BASED ON THIS. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY. ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PROGGED TO END BY 4 OR 5 PM MONDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...BRIEF ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES TODAY
BEFORE NEXT FRONT COMES DOWN ON MONDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BEHIND FRONT...WITH A
LONGER SCA LIKELY OFFSHORE. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FROPA...WITH
WIND GUSTS OFFSHORE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. OBVIOUSLY...TOO EARLY
FOR ISSUING SCA TODAY FOR A SHORT TERM SCA (AND BORDERLINE) ON
MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...FAIRLY QUIET WX
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. COOL AND SUNNY TUE IN THE WAKE OF
MON`S COLD FRONT...THEN MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO S TX. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE WEST BY THU AND FRI. CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS BY SAT. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY MORNING FOG BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE. THE GFS BRINGS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO THE CWA BY FRI/SAT FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF PROG A RIDGE TO BE ALOFT AND AM EXPECTING MAINLY JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS RATHER THAN PRECIP. WENT WITH 5-10 POPS FOR FRI
AND DID KEEP A 20 POP OVER THE WATER FOR SAT WHERE THE MODELS PROG
DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  45  68  41  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  39  64  35  65  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            75  46  70  41  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             75  42  69  39  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          70  47  64  46  65  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  40  67  37  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        73  43  68  40  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       71  49  66  46  65  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
     KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 071741
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1141 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOWARD SUNRISE.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN A MORE NORTH-SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AND
ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONT TO COME DOWN MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
NOT EXPECTED AS ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE NO TIME TO GET ANY NOTABLE
MOISTURE BACK. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WINDS AND WHETHER
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SITUATION ON
MONDAY (SEE DISCUSSION ON FIRE WEATHER BELOW).

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RETURN OF
MOISTURE...AGAIN NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT. NICE
DAY IN STORE...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE. AM
GOING TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
GIVEN THE FACT THAT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY (850 MB WEST WINDS) AND SOME LOCATIONS SAW
TEMPERATURES AOA 70 DEGREES YESTERDAY. FRONT COMES DOWN BY 12Z
MONDAY (GETS TO CLOSE TO THE COAST)...SO WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S MOST AREAS...AND MAYBE SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE CWFA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE WARMER VALUES AGAIN ON MONDAY
GIVEN 2 METER AND 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY.

FIRE WEATHER (MONDAY)...FIRE WEATHER PROCEDURE SHOWS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY FOR A SHORT TIME OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND A BIT LONGER OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND GOLIAD/VICTORIA AREA BASED ON THIS. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY. ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PROGGED TO END BY 4 OR 5 PM MONDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...BRIEF ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES TODAY
BEFORE NEXT FRONT COMES DOWN ON MONDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BEHIND FRONT...WITH A
LONGER SCA LIKELY OFFSHORE. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FROPA...WITH
WIND GUSTS OFFSHORE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. OBVIOUSLY...TOO EARLY
FOR ISSUING SCA TODAY FOR A SHORT TERM SCA (AND BORDERLINE) ON
MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...FAIRLY QUIET WX
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. COOL AND SUNNY TUE IN THE WAKE OF
MON`S COLD FRONT...THEN MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO S TX. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE WEST BY THU AND FRI. CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS BY SAT. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY MORNING FOG BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE. THE GFS BRINGS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO THE CWA BY FRI/SAT FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF PROG A RIDGE TO BE ALOFT AND AM EXPECTING MAINLY JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS RATHER THAN PRECIP. WENT WITH 5-10 POPS FOR FRI
AND DID KEEP A 20 POP OVER THE WATER FOR SAT WHERE THE MODELS PROG
DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  45  68  41  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  39  64  35  65  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            75  46  70  41  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             75  42  69  39  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          70  47  64  46  65  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  40  67  37  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        73  43  68  40  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       71  49  66  46  65  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
     KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 071741
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1141 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOWARD SUNRISE.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN A MORE NORTH-SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AND
ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONT TO COME DOWN MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
NOT EXPECTED AS ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE NO TIME TO GET ANY NOTABLE
MOISTURE BACK. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WINDS AND WHETHER
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SITUATION ON
MONDAY (SEE DISCUSSION ON FIRE WEATHER BELOW).

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RETURN OF
MOISTURE...AGAIN NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT. NICE
DAY IN STORE...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE. AM
GOING TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
GIVEN THE FACT THAT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY (850 MB WEST WINDS) AND SOME LOCATIONS SAW
TEMPERATURES AOA 70 DEGREES YESTERDAY. FRONT COMES DOWN BY 12Z
MONDAY (GETS TO CLOSE TO THE COAST)...SO WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S MOST AREAS...AND MAYBE SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE CWFA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE WARMER VALUES AGAIN ON MONDAY
GIVEN 2 METER AND 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY.

FIRE WEATHER (MONDAY)...FIRE WEATHER PROCEDURE SHOWS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY FOR A SHORT TIME OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND A BIT LONGER OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND GOLIAD/VICTORIA AREA BASED ON THIS. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY. ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PROGGED TO END BY 4 OR 5 PM MONDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...BRIEF ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES TODAY
BEFORE NEXT FRONT COMES DOWN ON MONDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BEHIND FRONT...WITH A
LONGER SCA LIKELY OFFSHORE. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FROPA...WITH
WIND GUSTS OFFSHORE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. OBVIOUSLY...TOO EARLY
FOR ISSUING SCA TODAY FOR A SHORT TERM SCA (AND BORDERLINE) ON
MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...FAIRLY QUIET WX
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. COOL AND SUNNY TUE IN THE WAKE OF
MON`S COLD FRONT...THEN MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO S TX. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE WEST BY THU AND FRI. CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS BY SAT. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY MORNING FOG BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE. THE GFS BRINGS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO THE CWA BY FRI/SAT FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF PROG A RIDGE TO BE ALOFT AND AM EXPECTING MAINLY JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS RATHER THAN PRECIP. WENT WITH 5-10 POPS FOR FRI
AND DID KEEP A 20 POP OVER THE WATER FOR SAT WHERE THE MODELS PROG
DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  45  68  41  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  39  64  35  65  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            75  46  70  41  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             75  42  69  39  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          70  47  64  46  65  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  40  67  37  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        73  43  68  40  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       71  49  66  46  65  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
     KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





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