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000
FXUS64 KCRP 241143 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. REMOVED PATCHY FOG AS
DEVELOPMENT IS SLOW...AND CHANCES FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL
DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
E-NE WIND TODAY WILL BRIEFLY VEER OUT OF THE E-SE THIS AFTN
5-10KTS FOR CRP- ALI- VCT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. FOR LRD...A GENERAL E-SE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
IN THE SHORT TERM. DAYTIME HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TODAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DIP ONCE MORE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TONIGHT. GENERAL LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SATURDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...GFS/ECMWF PROG A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH INITIALLY A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS/TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND EAST CONUS COASTS. THE WRN TROUGH IS
PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPS/MOVES ACRS THE SWRN CONUS. AS A RESULT...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO ENTER THE REGION. CONCUR WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN WHICH POSITIONS THE FRONT ACRS CNRL/NRN TX WEDNESDAY THEN ACRS
SRN/CNTRL TX THURSDAY. CONCUR WITH GFS/ECMWF ONSHORE FLOW...AND
ASSOCIATED MSTR INCREASE...IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING
DISTURBANCES. THE GFS PROG PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MSTR/PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/INCREASING INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLD CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ACRS THE CWA/MSA. AFTERWARD...
CONCUR WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC WHICH DEPICT
RIDGING ALOFT...ASSOCIATED SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE CWA/MSA...AND SUBSEQUENT DRYING...BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  62  87  61  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          87  58  88  58  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            89  66  91  63  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             88  61  90  60  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          82  64  84  67  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           89  62  90  59  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        87  60  89  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       84  67  85  68  80  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 240932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
IN THE SHORT TERM. DAYTIME HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TODAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DIP ONCE MORE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TONIGHT. GENERAL LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SATURDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...GFS/ECMWF PROG A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH INITIALLY A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS/TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND EAST CONUS COASTS. THE WRN TROUGH IS
PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPS/MOVES ACRS THE SWRN CONUS. AS A RESULT...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO ENTER THE REGION. CONCUR WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN WHICH POSITIONS THE FRONT ACRS CNRL/NRN TX WEDNESDAY THEN ACRS
SRN/CNTRL TX THURSDAY. CONCUR WITH GFS/ECMWF ONSHORE FLOW...AND
ASSOCIATED MSTR INCREASE...IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING
DISTURBANCES. THE GFS PROG PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MSTR/PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/INCREASING INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLD CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ACRS THE CWA/MSA. AFTERWARD...
CONCUR WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC WHICH DEPICT
RIDGING ALOFT...ASSOCIATED SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE CWA/MSA...AND SUBSEQUENT DRYING...BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  62  87  61  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          87  58  88  58  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            89  66  91  63  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             88  61  90  60  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          82  64  84  67  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           89  62  90  59  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        87  60  89  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       84  67  85  68  80  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 240521 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1221 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH PATCHY FOG FROM
ALI-VCT BETWEEN 10Z-13Z. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL VEERING OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON 5-10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  86  60  87  65  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          59  88  59  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            66  90  65  91  67  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             61  90  59  90  63  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  85  66  84  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           63  91  60  91  62  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        60  89  59  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  85  66  85  70  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 232349 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
649 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND MAIN ISSUE IS
WHETHER KALI AND KVCT WILL SEE ANY FOG. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A
SMALL WINDOW WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN...BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS
AND EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AWIPS SOUNDS ARE RATHER
DRY...BUT BUFKIT IS SAYING THAT FOG WILL FORM. AT THIS
TIME...FEELING IS THAT FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND THUS HAVE
TEMPO MVFR 3SM BR AT BOTH LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND 13Z. WILL LIKELY
HAVE A SEA-BREEZE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT KCRP TERMINAL TO
GO EAST OR SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE FORECAST BUT SHOULD BE 11 KNOTS
OR LOWER. PRETTY MUCH SHORT TERMINAL FORECAST GIVEN NOT MUCH
CHANGE DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD (SIG WX NIL).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WEAK UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK...WITH DRY AIR AS SEEN ON WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY BEING USHERED IN BEHIND IT. UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR TOMORROW. WINDS WILL DROP TO VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER TOMORROW THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP US DRY AND WARM. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROF
DROPS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP
A FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE STALLING IT OUT AS
A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO. GFS HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE CWFA. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
IN EARNEST ON MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO
OUR AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  86  63  86  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          58  87  59  88  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            65  90  66  90  65  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             62  88  61  90  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  83  65  85  66  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           63  88  63  91  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        62  86  60  89  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  84  67  85  66  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 232044
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
344 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WEAK UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK...WITH DRY AIR AS SEEN ON WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY BEING USHERED IN BEHIND IT. UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR TOMORROW. WINDS WILL DROP TO VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER TOMORROW THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP US DRY AND WARM. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROF
DROPS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP
A FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE STALLING IT OUT AS
A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO. GFS HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE CWFA. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
IN EARNEST ON MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO
OUR AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  86  63  86  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          58  87  59  88  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            65  90  66  90  65  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             62  88  61  90  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  83  65  85  66  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           63  88  63  91  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        62  86  60  89  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  84  67  85  66  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 231739
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUD DECK SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEARING THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF BR EXISTS FOR KALI AND KVCT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT EXPECT AIR WILL BE GENERALLY TOO
DRY FOR ANY FORMATION. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  84  59  86  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
VICTORIA          59  86  57  90  59  /  10  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            65  88  66  90  65  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             62  86  60  90  59  /  10  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  82  63  85  66  /  10  10   0   0   0
COTULLA           63  89  62  91  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        62  86  59  89  59  /  10  10   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  82  66  85  66  /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 231739
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUD DECK SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEARING THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF BR EXISTS FOR KALI AND KVCT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT EXPECT AIR WILL BE GENERALLY TOO
DRY FOR ANY FORMATION. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  84  59  86  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
VICTORIA          59  86  57  90  59  /  10  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            65  88  66  90  65  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             62  86  60  90  59  /  10  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  82  63  85  66  /  10  10   0   0   0
COTULLA           63  89  62  91  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        62  86  59  89  59  /  10  10   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  82  66  85  66  /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 231131
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
631 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DRG LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WHICH WL END FROM WEST TO EAST DRG THE AFTN.
GENERALLY LGT NE/E SFC WIND DRG THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS/NAM
STREAMLINES DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVG ACRS THE
REGION. ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CWA/MSA THIS MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN. NAM PROGS PWAT VALUES NEAR NORMAL THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ADDED LGT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH 10 POPS TO THE
CWA/MSA WITH A TIMING CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT.
NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC PROG AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN.
ANTICIPATE THAT WIND/SEAS WL REMAIN LESS THAN SCEC GIVEN THE
DISSIPATION OF TD NINE. EXPECT A LOWER RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY
GIVEN WEAKER WIND. NOT TOO CONFIDENT REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN CONSIDERING NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
WHICH MAINTAINS A SIGNIFICANT SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSION...AND
CONSIDERING SREF PROBABILITIES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS. THE RIDGE
IS PROG TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS EAST ACROSS
ROCKIES WITH GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE
MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS BRINGS A POWERFUL FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS TX AND THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER FRONT SOUTH AND STALLS IT ACROSS
THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE ECMWF DUE TO
STRONGER RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
OR NOT A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WAA WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMID FEELING AND BREEZIER
CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE DECENT
DIURNAL RANGES GIVEN LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH MAX
TEMPS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES OVER MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AND LOWS
FALLING INTO MID/UPPER 50S. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
CONTINGENT UPON POSSIBLE FROPA...BUT HAVE KEPT WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  64  84  59  86  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          85  59  86  57  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            86  65  88  66  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             85  62  86  60  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          81  65  82  63  85  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           86  63  89  62  91  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        85  62  86  59  89  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       81  68  82  66  85  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 230932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS/NAM
STREAMLINES DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVG ACRS THE
REGION. ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CWA/MSA THIS MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN. NAM PROGS PWAT VALUES NEAR NORMAL THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ADDED LGT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH 10 POPS TO THE
CWA/MSA WITH A TIMING CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT.
NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC PROG AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN.
ANTICIPATE THAT WIND/SEAS WL REMAIN LESS THAN SCEC GIVEN THE
DISSIPATION OF TD NINE. EXPECT A LOWER RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY
GIVEN WEAKER WIND. NOT TOO CONFIDENT REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN CONSIDERING NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
WHICH MAINTAINS A SIGNIFICANT SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSION...AND
CONSIDERING SREF PROBABILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS. THE RIDGE
IS PROG TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS EAST ACROSS
ROCKIES WITH GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE
MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS BRINGS A POWERFUL FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS TX AND THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER FRONT SOUTH AND STALLS IT ACROSS
THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE ECMWF DUE TO
STRONGER RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
OR NOT A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WAA WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMID FEELING AND BREEZIER
CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE DECENT
DIURNAL RANGES GIVEN LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH MAX
TEMPS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES OVER MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AND LOWS
FALLING INTO MID/UPPER 50S. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
CONTINGENT UPON POSSIBLE FROPA...BUT HAVE KEPT WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  64  84  59  86  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          85  59  86  57  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            86  65  88  66  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             85  62  86  60  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          81  65  82  63  85  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           86  63  89  62  91  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        85  62  86  59  89  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       81  68  82  66  85  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 230619
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
119 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LGT NE/E WIND
EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR DRG
THE 10-14Z THURSDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. WEAK ECHOES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
UPPER JET PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...ONLY HAVE
20 POPS GOING AND HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK ECHOES NEAR THE AREA
TONIGHT SO WILL NOT REMOVE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT SINCE MOST
CLOUDS ARE EITHER WEST OF NORTH OF AREA. LEFT REMAINDER OF
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW...AS OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MAY NEED TO TONE THE WINDS DOWN FOR THE
COASTAL WATER FORECAST SINCE MOST AREAS ARE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PSBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND SITES LATE
TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MSTR WILL INCRS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE 10-15K FOOT LAYER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  64  84  63  86  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          85  59  86  60  88  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            86  66  88  65  88  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             86  62  87  62  88  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          82  67  83  66  83  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           86  63  89  63  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        86  64  86  62  86  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  69  82  68  83  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 230154 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
854 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. WEAK ECHOES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
UPPER JET PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...ONLY HAVE
20 POPS GOING AND HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK ECHOES NEAR THE AREA
TONIGHT SO WILL NOT REMOVE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT SINCE MOST
CLOUDS ARE EITHER WEST OF NORTH OF AREA. LEFT REMAINDER OF
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW...AS OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MAY NEED TO TONE THE WINDS DOWN FOR THE
COASTAL WATER FORECAST SINCE MOST AREAS ARE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PSBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND SITES LATE
TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MSTR WILL INCRS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE 10-15K FOOT LAYER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  84  64  84  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          60  85  59  86  60  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            68  86  66  88  65  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             64  86  62  87  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          69  82  67  83  66  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           65  86  63  89  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        65  86  64  86  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       72  83  69  82  68  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 230154 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
854 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. WEAK ECHOES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
UPPER JET PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...ONLY HAVE
20 POPS GOING AND HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK ECHOES NEAR THE AREA
TONIGHT SO WILL NOT REMOVE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT SINCE MOST
CLOUDS ARE EITHER WEST OF NORTH OF AREA. LEFT REMAINDER OF
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW...AS OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MAY NEED TO TONE THE WINDS DOWN FOR THE
COASTAL WATER FORECAST SINCE MOST AREAS ARE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PSBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND SITES LATE
TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MSTR WILL INCRS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE 10-15K FOOT LAYER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  84  64  84  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          60  85  59  86  60  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            68  86  66  88  65  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             64  86  62  87  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          69  82  67  83  66  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           65  86  63  89  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        65  86  64  86  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       72  83  69  82  68  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 222337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PSBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND SITES LATE
TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MSTR WILL INCRS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE 10-15K FOOT LAYER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  84  64  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  60  85  59  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  88  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             86  64  86  62  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          83  69  82  67  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  65  86  64  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  83  69  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ/70...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 222013
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  84  64  84  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          60  85  59  86  60  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            68  86  66  88  65  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             64  86  62  87  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          69  82  67  83  66  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           65  86  63  89  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        65  86  64  86  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       72  83  69  82  68  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 221722
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A CU FIELD DVLPG ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERALLY BE AT VFR LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY`S TOWARD THU MORNING FOR VCT...ALI AND LRD.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS LRD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE
TO THE ISOLD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. WEAK TO MOD EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME VRB...BUT GENERALLY
NE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY NO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER GOES SOUNDER SHOWS MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND MODELS PROG INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. DUE
TO MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 20
PERCENT. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS DRG THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR DRG THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE
SRN SECTIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SWRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN OWING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG DRG THE 08-12Z THU PERIOD. LGT
GENERALLY EAST WIND EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CWA TODAY OWING TO SUFFICIENT MSTR...YET
NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT CAPE WL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONCUR WITH THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (700-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 200MB JET DYNAMICS). YET...NO SIGNIFICANT
PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THAT PERIOD OWING TO
INSUFFICENT MSTR (GFS/NAM PWAT VALUES BELOW NORMAL.)

MARINE...ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WL RESULT
IN SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY/TNGT. WL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE NEW MOON AND EXPECTED SFC WIND VELOCITIES. (ANTICIPATE THAT
SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 SECONDS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT WATER LEVELS WL REMAIN BELOW 2FT MSL
(BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE TAMUCC WATER LEVEL PREDICTIONS.)

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
NNE FLOW PROG TO OCCUR FROM H9 AND ABOVE. PWATS SHOULD FALL TO LESS
THAN AN INCH AS A RESULT WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP BECOMING PRACTICALLY
NIL. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS TX OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT WIND FIELD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS.
LLVL WAA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ATTM MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ALOFT AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO TX. 00Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE
FRONT WILL BE...BUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT OCCUR
DURING VALID FORECAST TIME FRAME. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN MID LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK
AS MODEST WAA OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  82  64  86  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          86  61  85  59  89  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             86  64  85  62  88  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          83  69  81  67  85  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  64  87  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  81  68  85  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 221722
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A CU FIELD DVLPG ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERALLY BE AT VFR LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY`S TOWARD THU MORNING FOR VCT...ALI AND LRD.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS LRD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE
TO THE ISOLD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. WEAK TO MOD EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME VRB...BUT GENERALLY
NE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY NO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER GOES SOUNDER SHOWS MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND MODELS PROG INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. DUE
TO MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 20
PERCENT. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS DRG THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR DRG THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE
SRN SECTIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SWRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN OWING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG DRG THE 08-12Z THU PERIOD. LGT
GENERALLY EAST WIND EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CWA TODAY OWING TO SUFFICIENT MSTR...YET
NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT CAPE WL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONCUR WITH THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (700-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 200MB JET DYNAMICS). YET...NO SIGNIFICANT
PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THAT PERIOD OWING TO
INSUFFICENT MSTR (GFS/NAM PWAT VALUES BELOW NORMAL.)

MARINE...ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WL RESULT
IN SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY/TNGT. WL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE NEW MOON AND EXPECTED SFC WIND VELOCITIES. (ANTICIPATE THAT
SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 SECONDS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT WATER LEVELS WL REMAIN BELOW 2FT MSL
(BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE TAMUCC WATER LEVEL PREDICTIONS.)

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
NNE FLOW PROG TO OCCUR FROM H9 AND ABOVE. PWATS SHOULD FALL TO LESS
THAN AN INCH AS A RESULT WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP BECOMING PRACTICALLY
NIL. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS TX OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT WIND FIELD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS.
LLVL WAA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ATTM MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ALOFT AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO TX. 00Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE
FRONT WILL BE...BUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT OCCUR
DURING VALID FORECAST TIME FRAME. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN MID LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK
AS MODEST WAA OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  82  64  86  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          86  61  85  59  89  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             86  64  85  62  88  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          83  69  81  67  85  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  64  87  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  81  68  85  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 221446
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
946 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY NO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER GOES SOUNDER SHOWS MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND MODELS PROG INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. DUE
TO MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 20
PERCENT. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS DRG THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR DRG THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE
SRN SECTIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SWRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN OWING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG DRG THE 08-12Z THU PERIOD. LGT
GENERALLY EAST WIND EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CWA TODAY OWING TO SUFFICIENT MSTR...YET
NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT CAPE WL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONCUR WITH THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (700-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 200MB JET DYNAMICS). YET...NO SIGNIFICANT
PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THAT PERIOD OWING TO
INSUFFICENT MSTR (GFS/NAM PWAT VALUES BELOW NORMAL.)

MARINE...ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WL RESULT
IN SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY/TNGT. WL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE NEW MOON AND EXPECTED SFC WIND VELOCITIES. (ANTICIPATE THAT
SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 SECONDS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT WATER LEVELS WL REMAIN BELOW 2FT MSL
(BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE TAMUCC WATER LEVEL PREDICTIONS.)

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
NNE FLOW PROG TO OCCUR FROM H9 AND ABOVE. PWATS SHOULD FALL TO LESS
THAN AN INCH AS A RESULT WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP BECOMING PRACTICALLY
NIL. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS TX OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT WIND FIELD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS.
LLVL WAA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ATTM MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ALOFT AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO TX. 00Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE
FRONT WILL BE...BUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT OCCUR
DURING VALID FORECAST TIME FRAME. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN MID LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK
AS MODEST WAA OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  82  64  86  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          86  61  85  59  89  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             86  64  85  62  88  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          83  69  81  67  85  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  64  87  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  81  68  85  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 221126
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS DRG THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR DRG THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE
SRN SECTIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SWRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN OWING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG DRG THE 08-12Z THU PERIOD. LGT
GENERALLY EAST WIND EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CWA TODAY OWING TO SUFFICIENT MSTR...YET
NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT CAPE WL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONCUR WITH THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (700-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 200MB JET DYNAMICS). YET...NO SIGNIFICANT
PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THAT PERIOD OWING TO
INSUFFICENT MSTR (GFS/NAM PWAT VALUES BELOW NORMAL.)

MARINE...ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WL RESULT
IN SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY/TNGT. WL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE NEW MOON AND EXPECTED SFC WIND VELOCITIES. (ANTICIPATE THAT
SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 SECONDS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT WATER LEVELS WL REMAIN BELOW 2FT MSL
(BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE TAMUCC WATER LEVEL PREDICTIONS.)

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
NNE FLOW PROG TO OCCUR FROM H9 AND ABOVE. PWATS SHOULD FALL TO LESS
THAN AN INCH AS A RESULT WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP BECOMING PRACTICALLY
NIL. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS TX OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT WIND FIELD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS.
LLVL WAA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ATTM MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ALOFT AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO TX. 00Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE
FRONT WILL BE...BUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT OCCUR
DURING VALID FORECAST TIME FRAME. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN MID LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK
AS MODEST WAA OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  82  64  86  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          86  61  85  59  89  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             86  64  85  62  88  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          83  69  81  67  85  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  64  87  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  81  68  85  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220916
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
416 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CWA TODAY OWING TO SUFFICIENT MSTR...YET
NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT CAPE WL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONCUR WITH THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (700-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 200MB JET DYNAMICS). YET...NO SIGNIFICANT
PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THAT PERIOD OWING TO
INSUFFICENT MSTR (GFS/NAM PWAT VALUES BELOW NORMAL.)

&&

.MARINE...ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WL RESULT
IN SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY/TNGT. WL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE NEW MOON AND EXPECTED SFC WIND VELOCITIES. (ANTICIPATE THAT
SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 SECONDS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT WATER LEVELS WL REMAIN BELOW 2FT MSL
(BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE TAMUCC WATER LEVEL PREDICTIONS.)

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
NNE FLOW PROG TO OCCUR FROM H9 AND ABOVE. PWATS SHOULD FALL TO LESS
THAN AN INCH AS A RESULT WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP BECOMING PRACTICALLY
NIL. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS TX OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT WIND FIELD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS.
LLVL WAA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ATTM MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ALOFT AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO TX. 00Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE
FRONT WILL BE...BUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT OCCUR
DURING VALID FORECAST TIME FRAME. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN MID LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK
AS MODEST WAA OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  82  64  86  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          86  61  85  59  89  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             86  64  85  62  88  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          83  69  81  67  85  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  64  87  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  81  68  85  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220627
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
127 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED FOR THE
09-15Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD. GENERALLY LGT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO MODERATE DRG THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LGT WIND AFTERWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...ONLY CHANGES NEEDED WERE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND
MOISTURE GRIDS TO FIT OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS. RAINFALL
REMAINS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE OR MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE. THUS...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. NO ZFPCRP UPDATE...AS CHANGES TO GRIDS
DID NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS OR WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NEAR LRD THROUGH 01Z
BEFORE FURTHER DIMINISHING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR FOG FROM ALI-
VCT...AND MVFR STRATUS AT LRD...FROM 08Z-13Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EAST 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX...WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD SHRAS TONIGHT THRU WED...WHILE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER ACROSS THE EAST CWA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE MCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA WITH
CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS THROUGH WED. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ABV NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN THE E
TO NE FLOW ACROSS S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MOD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MOD RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THRU WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER ARE RUNNING
APPROX. 0.5FT ABV PREDICTED WHICH RESULTS IN TIDES RUNNING AROUND
1.5FT ABV MSL AT THE PEAK OF HIGH TIDE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND CAPPED OVER
THE REGION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. A SUBSIDENT
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRI-SAT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES (DWPTS IN 50S) AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NEXT S/W TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INITIATING A WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH
DWPTS NOSING BACK INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND
MONDAY WITHIN AXIS OF LOW LVL MOIST ADVECTION. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO POOLING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA BY THE WEEKEND...RELAXING THE GRADIENT IN
THE NW GULF AND WILL REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE
ANY IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  67  84  65  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  59  85  60  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            87  68  85  66  88  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             88  65  86  63  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  69  83  68  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           87  65  86  64  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        87  66  85  64  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  70  83  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220157 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
857 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...ONLY CHANGES NEEDED WERE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND
MOISTURE GRIDS TO FIT OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS. RAINFALL
REMAINS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE OR MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE. THUS...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. NO ZFPCRP UPDATE...AS CHANGES TO GRIDS
DID NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS OR WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NEAR LRD THROUGH 01Z
BEFORE FURTHER DIMINISHING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR FOG FROM ALI-
VCT...AND MVFR STRATUS AT LRD...FROM 08Z-13Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EAST 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX...WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD SHRAS TONIGHT THRU WED...WHILE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER ACROSS THE EAST CWA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE MCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA WITH
CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS THROUGH WED. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ABV NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN THE E
TO NE FLOW ACROSS S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MOD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MOD RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THRU WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER ARE RUNNING
APPROX. 0.5FT ABV PREDICTED WHICH RESULTS IN TIDES RUNNING AROUND
1.5FT ABV MSL AT THE PEAK OF HIGH TIDE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND CAPPED OVER
THE REGION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. A SUBSIDENT
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRI-SAT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES (DWPTS IN 50S) AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NEXT S/W TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INITIATING A WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH
DWPTS NOSING BACK INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND
MONDAY WITHIN AXIS OF LOW LVL MOIST ADVECTION. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO POOLING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA BY THE WEEKEND...RELAXING THE GRADIENT IN
THE NW GULF AND WILL REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE
ANY IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  86  67  84  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          60  87  59  85  60  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            68  87  68  85  66  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             65  88  65  86  63  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  85  69  83  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           65  87  65  86  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  87  66  85  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  85  70  83  70  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 212345 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NEAR LRD THROUGH 01Z
BEFORE FURTHER DIMINISHING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR FOG FROM ALI-
VCT...AND MVFR STRATUS AT LRD...FROM 08Z-13Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EAST 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX...WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD SHRAS TONIGHT THRU WED...WHILE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER ACROSS THE EAST CWA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE MCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA WITH
CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS THROUGH WED. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ABV NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN THE E
TO NE FLOW ACROSS S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MOD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MOD RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THRU WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER ARE RUNNING
APPROX. 0.5FT ABV PREDICTED WHICH RESULTS IN TIDES RUNNING AROUND
1.5FT ABV MSL AT THE PEAK OF HIGH TIDE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND CAPPED OVER
THE REGION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. A SUBSIDENT
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRI-SAT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES (DWPTS IN 50S) AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NEXT S/W TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INITIATING A WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH
DWPTS NOSING BACK INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND
MONDAY WITHIN AXIS OF LOW LVL MOIST ADVECTION. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO POOLING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA BY THE WEEKEND...RELAXING THE GRADIENT IN
THE NW GULF AND WILL REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE
ANY IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  86  67  84  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          60  87  59  85  60  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            68  87  68  85  66  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             65  88  65  86  63  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  85  69  83  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           65  87  65  86  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  87  66  85  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  85  70  83  70  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 212345 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NEAR LRD THROUGH 01Z
BEFORE FURTHER DIMINISHING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR FOG FROM ALI-
VCT...AND MVFR STRATUS AT LRD...FROM 08Z-13Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EAST 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX...WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD SHRAS TONIGHT THRU WED...WHILE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER ACROSS THE EAST CWA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE MCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA WITH
CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS THROUGH WED. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ABV NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN THE E
TO NE FLOW ACROSS S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MOD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MOD RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THRU WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER ARE RUNNING
APPROX. 0.5FT ABV PREDICTED WHICH RESULTS IN TIDES RUNNING AROUND
1.5FT ABV MSL AT THE PEAK OF HIGH TIDE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND CAPPED OVER
THE REGION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. A SUBSIDENT
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRI-SAT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES (DWPTS IN 50S) AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NEXT S/W TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INITIATING A WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH
DWPTS NOSING BACK INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND
MONDAY WITHIN AXIS OF LOW LVL MOIST ADVECTION. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO POOLING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA BY THE WEEKEND...RELAXING THE GRADIENT IN
THE NW GULF AND WILL REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE
ANY IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  86  67  84  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          60  87  59  85  60  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            68  87  68  85  66  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             65  88  65  86  63  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  85  69  83  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           65  87  65  86  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  87  66  85  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  85  70  83  70  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 211956
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX...WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD SHRAS TONIGHT THRU WED...WHILE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER ACROSS THE EAST CWA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE MCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA WITH
CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS THROUGH WED. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ABV NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN THE E
TO NE FLOW ACROSS S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MOD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MOD RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THRU WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER ARE RUNNING
APPROX. 0.5FT ABV PREDICTED WHICH RESULTS IN TIDES RUNNING AROUND
1.5FT ABV MSL AT THE PEAK OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND CAPPED OVER
THE REGION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. A SUBSIDENT
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRI-SAT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES (DWPTS IN 50S) AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NEXT S/W TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INITIATING A WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH
DWPTS NOSING BACK INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND
MONDAY WITHIN AXIS OF LOW LVL MOIST ADVECTION. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO POOLING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA BY THE WEEKEND...RELAXING THE GRADIENT IN
THE NW GULF AND WILL REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE
ANY IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  86  67  84  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          60  87  59  85  60  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            68  87  68  85  66  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             65  88  65  86  63  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  85  69  83  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           65  87  65  86  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  87  66  85  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  85  70  83  70  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 211725 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KLRD...BUT WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS TODAY WILL
BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AFTER O1Z EASTERLY WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 08Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOG POSSIBLE AT
KALI AND KLRD SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION.
KVCT WILL LIKELY SEE VSBYS REDUCED TO AROUND 4 MILES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. AFTER 15Z ALL SITES BACK TO VFR AND EASTERLY WINDS 10-15
KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PERIODS
GOING FORWARD. ZFP...AFM..AND PFM PRODUCTS ISSUED TO ELIMINATE THE
MENTION OF MORNING FOG FOR A FEW COUNTIES. DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO POOL HIGHER CLOUD CONCENTRATIONS AND THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
CONFINED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

EWX FORECASTERS:
ML...SHORT TERM
MO...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 211537
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1037 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PERIODS
GOING FORWARD. ZFP...AFM..AND PFM PRODUCTS ISSUED TO ELIMINATE THE
MENTION OF MORNING FOG FOR A FEW COUNTIES. DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO POOL HIGHER CLOUD CONCENTRATIONS AND THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
CONFINED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

EWX FORECASTERS:
ML...SHORT TERM
MO...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 211537
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1037 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PERIODS
GOING FORWARD. ZFP...AFM..AND PFM PRODUCTS ISSUED TO ELIMINATE THE
MENTION OF MORNING FOG FOR A FEW COUNTIES. DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO POOL HIGHER CLOUD CONCENTRATIONS AND THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
CONFINED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

EWX FORECASTERS:
ML...SHORT TERM
MO...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 211537
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1037 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PERIODS
GOING FORWARD. ZFP...AFM..AND PFM PRODUCTS ISSUED TO ELIMINATE THE
MENTION OF MORNING FOG FOR A FEW COUNTIES. DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO POOL HIGHER CLOUD CONCENTRATIONS AND THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
CONFINED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

EWX FORECASTERS:
ML...SHORT TERM
MO...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 211537
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1037 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PERIODS
GOING FORWARD. ZFP...AFM..AND PFM PRODUCTS ISSUED TO ELIMINATE THE
MENTION OF MORNING FOG FOR A FEW COUNTIES. DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO POOL HIGHER CLOUD CONCENTRATIONS AND THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
CONFINED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

EWX FORECASTERS:
ML...SHORT TERM
MO...LONG TERM







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