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000
FXUS64 KCRP 282346 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
646 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE LRD TAF SITE AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED VCSH OR
SHRA REMARKS IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT MOSTLY A VFR FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT ALI/CRP/VCT EARLY IN THE MORNING. ANY
LIGHT FOG/STRATIS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z/15Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT ALI/CRP/VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
MOVG W ACROSS S TX ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS CTRD ACROSS CNTRL TX...IS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON S TX DUE
TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THEREFORE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMP
FCST. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED SUFFICIENTLY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 105 TO 109 WITH ONE LOCATION
REPORTING 112 YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS ON TUE COULD BE ELEVATED ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 110-115 ACROSS MORE LOCATIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT HEAT INDICES WILL REACH
105 TO 109...AND MAY STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUE.
HAVE SILENT 5-10 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ROGUE -SRHA THAT MAY DVLP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATED. SFC WINDS ARE PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO JUST BARELY REACH CAUTION ACROSS THE SRN
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM UPPER PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH DISTURBANCES MOVG SEWD ACRS
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY THEN STALL (GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) EXPECT MSTR CONVERGENCE/HIGH
PWAT VALUES (GFS DETERMINISTIC) ALONG THE BNDRY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC PROG SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PWAT VALUES OVR THE CWA/MSA
SUNDAY APPARENTLY DUE TO GREATER SUBSIDENCE (700-300MB Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE). NEVERTHELESS...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE
CWA/MSA FOR SUNDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED MSTR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DISSIPATING SFC BNDRY. RETAINED ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY IN PART
BASED ON GFS CIN/CAPE (YET PWAT VALUES REPRESENT A LIMITING FACTOR.)
EXPECT MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LESS THAN 105F. COOLER MAX TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  98  75  96  78  /  10  10   0  10  10
VICTORIA          75  99  74  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 106  78 105  80  /  10   0   0   0  10
ALICE             74 103  74 100  76  /  10   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  92  79  89  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 103  75 103  76  /  10   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74 101  75  98  77  /  10   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  93  81  89  81  /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 282346 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
646 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE LRD TAF SITE AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED VCSH OR
SHRA REMARKS IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT MOSTLY A VFR FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT ALI/CRP/VCT EARLY IN THE MORNING. ANY
LIGHT FOG/STRATIS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z/15Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT ALI/CRP/VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
MOVG W ACROSS S TX ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS CTRD ACROSS CNTRL TX...IS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON S TX DUE
TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THEREFORE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMP
FCST. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED SUFFICIENTLY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 105 TO 109 WITH ONE LOCATION
REPORTING 112 YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS ON TUE COULD BE ELEVATED ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 110-115 ACROSS MORE LOCATIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT HEAT INDICES WILL REACH
105 TO 109...AND MAY STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUE.
HAVE SILENT 5-10 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ROGUE -SRHA THAT MAY DVLP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATED. SFC WINDS ARE PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO JUST BARELY REACH CAUTION ACROSS THE SRN
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM UPPER PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH DISTURBANCES MOVG SEWD ACRS
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY THEN STALL (GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) EXPECT MSTR CONVERGENCE/HIGH
PWAT VALUES (GFS DETERMINISTIC) ALONG THE BNDRY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC PROG SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PWAT VALUES OVR THE CWA/MSA
SUNDAY APPARENTLY DUE TO GREATER SUBSIDENCE (700-300MB Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE). NEVERTHELESS...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE
CWA/MSA FOR SUNDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED MSTR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DISSIPATING SFC BNDRY. RETAINED ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY IN PART
BASED ON GFS CIN/CAPE (YET PWAT VALUES REPRESENT A LIMITING FACTOR.)
EXPECT MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LESS THAN 105F. COOLER MAX TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  98  75  96  78  /  10  10   0  10  10
VICTORIA          75  99  74  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 106  78 105  80  /  10   0   0   0  10
ALICE             74 103  74 100  76  /  10   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  92  79  89  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 103  75 103  76  /  10   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74 101  75  98  77  /  10   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  93  81  89  81  /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 282017
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
MOVG W ACROSS S TX ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS CTRD ACROSS CNTRL TX...IS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON S TX DUE
TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THEREFORE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMP
FCST. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED SUFFICIENTLY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 105 TO 109 WITH ONE LOCATION
REPORTING 112 YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS ON TUE COULD BE ELEVATED ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 110-115 ACROSS MORE LOCATIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT HEAT INDICES WILL REACH
105 TO 109...AND MAY STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUE.
HAVE SILENT 5-10 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ROGUE -SRHA THAT MAY DVLP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATED. SFC WINDS ARE PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO JUST BARELY REACH CAUTION ACROSS THE SRN
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM UPPER PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH DISTURBANCES MOVG SEWD ACRS
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY THEN STALL (GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) EXPECT MSTR CONVERGENCE/HIGH
PWAT VALUES (GFS DETERMINISTIC) ALONG THE BNDRY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC PROG SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PWAT VALUES OVR THE CWA/MSA
SUNDAY APPARENTLY DUE TO GREATER SUBSIDENCE (700-300MB Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE). NEVERTHELESS...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE
CWA/MSA FOR SUNDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED MSTR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DISSIPATING SFC BNDRY. RETAINED ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY IN PART
BASED ON GFS CIN/CAPE (YET PWAT VALUES REPRESENT A LIMITING FACTOR.)
EXPECT MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LESS THAN 105F. COOLER MAX TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  98  75  96  78  /  10  10   0  10  10
VICTORIA          75  99  74  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 106  78 105  80  /  10   0   0   0  10
ALICE             74 103  74 100  76  /  10   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  92  79  89  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 103  75 103  76  /  10   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74 101  75  98  77  /  10   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  93  81  89  81  /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 282017
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
MOVG W ACROSS S TX ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS CTRD ACROSS CNTRL TX...IS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON S TX DUE
TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THEREFORE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMP
FCST. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED SUFFICIENTLY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 105 TO 109 WITH ONE LOCATION
REPORTING 112 YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS ON TUE COULD BE ELEVATED ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 110-115 ACROSS MORE LOCATIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT HEAT INDICES WILL REACH
105 TO 109...AND MAY STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUE.
HAVE SILENT 5-10 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ROGUE -SRHA THAT MAY DVLP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATED. SFC WINDS ARE PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO JUST BARELY REACH CAUTION ACROSS THE SRN
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM UPPER PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH DISTURBANCES MOVG SEWD ACRS
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY THEN STALL (GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) EXPECT MSTR CONVERGENCE/HIGH
PWAT VALUES (GFS DETERMINISTIC) ALONG THE BNDRY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC PROG SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PWAT VALUES OVR THE CWA/MSA
SUNDAY APPARENTLY DUE TO GREATER SUBSIDENCE (700-300MB Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE). NEVERTHELESS...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE
CWA/MSA FOR SUNDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED MSTR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DISSIPATING SFC BNDRY. RETAINED ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY IN PART
BASED ON GFS CIN/CAPE (YET PWAT VALUES REPRESENT A LIMITING FACTOR.)
EXPECT MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LESS THAN 105F. COOLER MAX TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  98  75  96  78  /  10  10   0  10  10
VICTORIA          75  99  74  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 106  78 105  80  /  10   0   0   0  10
ALICE             74 103  74 100  76  /  10   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  92  79  89  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 103  75 103  76  /  10   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74 101  75  98  77  /  10   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  93  81  89  81  /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281704
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1204 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AND MOST OF TONIGHT. TOWARD TUE MORNING...STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DVLP LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR ALI AND VCT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CRP. BY
MID MORNING TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS
IN CONTROL. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE BUT DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES. MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN WARM.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES MEANS A HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR S TX...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED. THE HRRR PROGS ISOLD
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
SHOW NO PRECIP. WENT WITH A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY ROGUE SHRA THAT MAY DVLP.
OTHWERWISE...THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHES OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MRNG WITH VFR TO
PREVAIL THRU REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT/VRB WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME MORE SERLY AND
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AGAIN MON NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  75  98  75  97  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA         100  75 101  74  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  79 106  78 106  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE            102  74 103  73 101  /  10  10   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          92  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  75 103  73 103  /  10  10   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE       100  74 101  73  98  /  10  10   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  93  /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281704
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1204 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AND MOST OF TONIGHT. TOWARD TUE MORNING...STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DVLP LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR ALI AND VCT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CRP. BY
MID MORNING TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS
IN CONTROL. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE BUT DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES. MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN WARM.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES MEANS A HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR S TX...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED. THE HRRR PROGS ISOLD
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
SHOW NO PRECIP. WENT WITH A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY ROGUE SHRA THAT MAY DVLP.
OTHWERWISE...THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHES OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MRNG WITH VFR TO
PREVAIL THRU REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT/VRB WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME MORE SERLY AND
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AGAIN MON NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  75  98  75  97  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA         100  75 101  74  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  79 106  78 106  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE            102  74 103  73 101  /  10  10   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          92  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  75 103  73 103  /  10  10   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE       100  74 101  73  98  /  10  10   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  93  /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 281426
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS
IN CONTROL. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE BUT DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES. MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN WARM.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES MEANS A HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR S TX...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED. THE HRRR PROGS ISOLD
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
SHOW NO PRECIP. WENT WITH A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY ROGUE SHRA THAT MAY DVLP.
OTHWERWISE...THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHES OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MRNG WITH VFR TO
PREVAIL THRU REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT/VRB WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME MORE SERLY AND
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AGAIN MON NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  75  98  75  97  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA         100  75 101  74  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  79 106  78 106  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE            102  74 103  73 101  /  10  10   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          92  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  75 103  73 103  /  10  10   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE       100  74 101  73  98  /  10  10   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  93  /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281426
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS
IN CONTROL. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE BUT DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES. MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN WARM.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES MEANS A HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR S TX...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED. THE HRRR PROGS ISOLD
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
SHOW NO PRECIP. WENT WITH A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY ROGUE SHRA THAT MAY DVLP.
OTHWERWISE...THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHES OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MRNG WITH VFR TO
PREVAIL THRU REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT/VRB WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME MORE SERLY AND
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AGAIN MON NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  75  98  75  97  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA         100  75 101  74  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  79 106  78 106  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE            102  74 103  73 101  /  10  10   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          92  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  75 103  73 103  /  10  10   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE       100  74 101  73  98  /  10  10   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  93  /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 281137 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHES OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MRNG WITH VFR TO
PREVAIL THRU REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT/VRB WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME MORE SERLY AND
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AGAIN MON NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  75  98  75  97  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA         100  75 101  74  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  79 106  78 106  /   0  10   0   0   0
ALICE            102  74 103  73 101  /  10  10   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          92  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  75 103  73 103  /   0  10   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE       100  74 101  73  98  /  10  10   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  93  /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 281137 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBYS AND PATCHES OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MRNG WITH VFR TO
PREVAIL THRU REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT/VRB WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME MORE SERLY AND
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AGAIN MON NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  75  98  75  97  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA         100  75 101  74  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  79 106  78 106  /   0  10   0   0   0
ALICE            102  74 103  73 101  /  10  10   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          92  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  75 103  73 103  /   0  10   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE       100  74 101  73  98  /  10  10   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  93  /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 280921
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
421 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LATE JULY HEAT CONTINUES TO
BE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL INCREASE OVER CWA TODAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAY AND HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 110 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH
110 ACROSS THE VICTORIA AND LAREDO METRO AREAS. THUS...HAVE ISSUED
A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SAID LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DIURNAL MIXING MAY LEAD HEAT INDICES TO BE A
LITTLE MORE MARGINAL THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...LIGHTER
WIND SPEEDS MAY COUNTERACT THE PERCEPTION OF A DRIER AIRMASS
TODAY. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA/ AS SLIGHTLY DRIER DEEP
LAYER PROFILE AND EXTENSION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AIDS IN
BOOSTING TEMPS TO GREATER THAN 100 DEGREES OVER MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PRETTY NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE IS HANDLING
POPS THIS WEEKEND. WILL WILL BE HOT WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERION AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THEN MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES FROM THE
NORTH AND THE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND FARTHER
SOUTH AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE CWFA TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (IF NOT
OVERNIGHT) SO THAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY...PWATS ARE NEARLY 2.4
INCHES AND DO EXPECT SOME WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW EITHER FROM THE WEAK
FRONT OR BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION. BOUNDARY COULD ALSO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD JET COMING DOWN INTO
AREA (WHICH COULD ALSO HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH OUR AREA
MAY NOT BE ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE OF JET INITIALLY). STILL...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS
NOW (TIME TO ADJUST FORECAST). BY MONDAY...DRIER AIR DOES GRADUALLY
TRY TO FILTER IN AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH POPS BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES COMING IN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AND...DEPENDING ON WHETHER AREA
SEES DYING MCS OVER THE WEEKEND...COULD HAVE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS
AGAIN WHERE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN COULD RESULT IN A RATHER
COOL DAY ON SUNDAY (GFS IS HINTING AT THIS). OVERALL HOWEVER...DID
NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH DID
INCREASE TEMPS JUST A BIT (MAINLY OUT WEST) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WARM AND HUMID NIGHTS AGAIN TIL THE WEEKEND AND THEN GOING A BIT
MORE TOWARD CLIMO GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST (WHICH WAS
JUST ABOUT FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  75  98  75  97  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA         100  75 101  74  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  79 106  78 106  /   0  10   0   0   0
ALICE            102  74 103  73 101  /  10  10   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          92  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  75 103  73 103  /   0  10   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE       100  74 101  73  98  /  10  10   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  93  /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 280538 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 6Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS ASIDE FROM
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AT SELECT TERMINALS.
VSBYS ARE XPCTD TO DETERIORATE THRU THE NIGHT AT KVCT WHERE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR LATE TONIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND LIGHTER SFC WINDS LEADING TO SOME FOG DVLPMNT.
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DETERIORATE AT KALI WHILE KCRP/KLRD ARE
CURRENTLY EXPCTD TO REMAIN AT VFR /THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH KLRD AROUND SUNRISE/. VFR TO THEN PREVAIL DRNG
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS SKIES RETURN TO MAINLY CLEAR. LIGHT S TO
SWRLY WINDS OVERNIGHT /AROUND 10 KTS AT KLRD/ WITH SFC WINDS
SHIFTING MORE SERLY DRNG THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO AROUND
MODERATE LEVELS...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY MON EVENING/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  76  97  76  97  /  10  10   0   0  10
VICTORIA          99  76  99  76  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           104  78 105  78 104  /  10  10   0   0  10
ALICE            101  75 102  75 100  /  10  10   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  92  79  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          101  76 103  76 102  /  10  10   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        99  76 101  75  99  /  10  10   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       91  80  93  79  93  /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 280538 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 6Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS ASIDE FROM
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AT SELECT TERMINALS.
VSBYS ARE XPCTD TO DETERIORATE THRU THE NIGHT AT KVCT WHERE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR LATE TONIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND LIGHTER SFC WINDS LEADING TO SOME FOG DVLPMNT.
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DETERIORATE AT KALI WHILE KCRP/KLRD ARE
CURRENTLY EXPCTD TO REMAIN AT VFR /THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH KLRD AROUND SUNRISE/. VFR TO THEN PREVAIL DRNG
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS SKIES RETURN TO MAINLY CLEAR. LIGHT S TO
SWRLY WINDS OVERNIGHT /AROUND 10 KTS AT KLRD/ WITH SFC WINDS
SHIFTING MORE SERLY DRNG THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO AROUND
MODERATE LEVELS...BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY MON EVENING/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  76  97  76  97  /  10  10   0   0  10
VICTORIA          99  76  99  76  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           104  78 105  78 104  /  10  10   0   0  10
ALICE            101  75 102  75 100  /  10  10   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  92  79  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          101  76 103  76 102  /  10  10   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        99  76 101  75  99  /  10  10   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       91  80  93  79  93  /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 280154
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
854 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...ALLOWED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 8PM. THE
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TODAY -VS- YESTERDAY...AND STEADY
TEMP/DWPTS ALLOWED HEAT INDICIES TO SURGE A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DWPTS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HEAT
INDICIES TOMORROW...BUT STILL CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
OVERALL...SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL BEND. BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. WILL ALLOW THE
SCA TO EXPIRE AT 9PM FOR THE SOUTH BAYS AS WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA IN THE PAST HOUR AS WIND DECOUPLE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES AND COASTALS SHORTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  76  97  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          76  99  76  99  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 104  78 105  78  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             75 101  75 102  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          80  90  79  92  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  76 103  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76 101  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  93  79  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 280154
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
854 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...ALLOWED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 8PM. THE
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TODAY -VS- YESTERDAY...AND STEADY
TEMP/DWPTS ALLOWED HEAT INDICIES TO SURGE A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DWPTS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HEAT
INDICIES TOMORROW...BUT STILL CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
OVERALL...SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL BEND. BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. WILL ALLOW THE
SCA TO EXPIRE AT 9PM FOR THE SOUTH BAYS AS WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA IN THE PAST HOUR AS WIND DECOUPLE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES AND COASTALS SHORTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  76  97  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          76  99  76  99  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 104  78 105  78  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             75 101  75 102  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          80  90  79  92  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  76 103  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76 101  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  93  79  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 272345 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
645 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES...WITH BRIEF MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM
VCT-ALI-CRP TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF STRATUS IN THE MORNING...WITH GENERAL
CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10-15KT AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 15-20KT BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND
AREAS BRIEFLY MON MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN
THE ZONES. LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PRECIP
OUT OF THE FCST...BUT DO HAVE SILENT 10 POPS FOR ANY ROGUE -SHRA`S
THAT HAPPEN TO DVLP. HAVE GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR TEMPS.
THE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON MON BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110 LEADING TO MARGINAL
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS FOR WINDS...MODELS PROG A WEAK FRONTAL
BDRY TO CLIP E TX AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE DEEP
S. THIS WILL RELAX THE GRADIENT ACROSS S TX RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
LOWER WIND SPEEDS ON MON. HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE WINDS GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SEA BREEZE INTERACTION. OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CAUTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW ON MON.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SOLN CONTINUES THE TREND OF MAINTAINING THE HOT AND DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE EVEN LONGER.  HOT AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD
NOW PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WL REMOVE PCPN FROM THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE MAIN POOL OF
MOISTURE IN ASSCTN WITH A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.  WL BOOST HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME GIVEN THE S/SW BOUNDARY
LYR FLOW AND PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH.  THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE
NRN AREAS BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WL
STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND.  MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WL BOOST PWATS TO 2 TO 2.4
INCHES ACROSS THE CWA.  WL CARRY AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED HIGHER ONCE THE MODEL SOLNS
SETTLE ON MORE CONSISTENT TIMING WITH THE FRONT/MOISTURE.  WL SHOW
A COOLING OF TEMPS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUD CVR...RAIN CHANCES AND MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  76  97  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          76  99  76  99  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 104  78 105  78  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             75 101  75 102  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          80  90  79  92  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  76 103  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76 101  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  93  79  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 272345 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
645 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES...WITH BRIEF MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM
VCT-ALI-CRP TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF STRATUS IN THE MORNING...WITH GENERAL
CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10-15KT AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 15-20KT BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND
AREAS BRIEFLY MON MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN
THE ZONES. LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PRECIP
OUT OF THE FCST...BUT DO HAVE SILENT 10 POPS FOR ANY ROGUE -SHRA`S
THAT HAPPEN TO DVLP. HAVE GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR TEMPS.
THE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON MON BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110 LEADING TO MARGINAL
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS FOR WINDS...MODELS PROG A WEAK FRONTAL
BDRY TO CLIP E TX AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE DEEP
S. THIS WILL RELAX THE GRADIENT ACROSS S TX RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
LOWER WIND SPEEDS ON MON. HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE WINDS GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SEA BREEZE INTERACTION. OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CAUTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW ON MON.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SOLN CONTINUES THE TREND OF MAINTAINING THE HOT AND DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE EVEN LONGER.  HOT AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD
NOW PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WL REMOVE PCPN FROM THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE MAIN POOL OF
MOISTURE IN ASSCTN WITH A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.  WL BOOST HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME GIVEN THE S/SW BOUNDARY
LYR FLOW AND PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH.  THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE
NRN AREAS BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WL
STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND.  MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WL BOOST PWATS TO 2 TO 2.4
INCHES ACROSS THE CWA.  WL CARRY AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED HIGHER ONCE THE MODEL SOLNS
SETTLE ON MORE CONSISTENT TIMING WITH THE FRONT/MOISTURE.  WL SHOW
A COOLING OF TEMPS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUD CVR...RAIN CHANCES AND MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  76  97  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          76  99  76  99  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 104  78 105  78  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             75 101  75 102  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          80  90  79  92  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  76 103  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76 101  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  93  79  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 271946
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
246 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND
AREAS BRIEFLY MON MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN
THE ZONES. LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PRECIP
OUT OF THE FCST...BUT DO HAVE SILENT 10 POPS FOR ANY ROGUE -SHRA`S
THAT HAPPEN TO DVLP. HAVE GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR TEMPS.
THE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON MON BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110 LEADING TO MARGINAL
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS FOR WINDS...MODELS PROG A WEAK FRONTAL
BDRY TO CLIP E TX AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE DEEP
S. THIS WILL RELAX THE GRADIENT ACROSS S TX RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
LOWER WIND SPEEDS ON MON. HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE WINDS GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SEA BREEZE INTERACTION. OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CAUTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SOLN CONTINUES THE TREND OF MAINTAINING THE HOT AND DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE EVEN LONGER.  HOT AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD
NOW PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WL REMOVE PCPN FROM THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE MAIN POOL OF
MOISTURE IN ASSCTN WITH A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.  WL BOOST HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME GIVEN THE S/SW BOUNDARY
LYR FLOW AND PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH.  THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE
NRN AREAS BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WL
STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND.  MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WL BOOST PWATS TO 2 TO 2.4
INCHES ACROSS THE CWA.  WL CARRY AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED HIGHER ONCE THE MODEL SOLNS
SETTLE ON MORE CONSISTENT TIMING WITH THE FRONT/MOISTURE.  WL SHOW
A COOLING OF TEMPS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUD CVR...RAIN CHANCES AND MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  76  97  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          76  99  76  99  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 104  78 105  78  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             75 101  75 102  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          80  90  79  92  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  76 103  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76 101  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  93  79  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 271946
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
246 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND
AREAS BRIEFLY MON MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN
THE ZONES. LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PRECIP
OUT OF THE FCST...BUT DO HAVE SILENT 10 POPS FOR ANY ROGUE -SHRA`S
THAT HAPPEN TO DVLP. HAVE GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR TEMPS.
THE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON MON BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110 LEADING TO MARGINAL
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS FOR WINDS...MODELS PROG A WEAK FRONTAL
BDRY TO CLIP E TX AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE DEEP
S. THIS WILL RELAX THE GRADIENT ACROSS S TX RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
LOWER WIND SPEEDS ON MON. HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE WINDS GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SEA BREEZE INTERACTION. OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CAUTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SOLN CONTINUES THE TREND OF MAINTAINING THE HOT AND DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE EVEN LONGER.  HOT AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD
NOW PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WL REMOVE PCPN FROM THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE MAIN POOL OF
MOISTURE IN ASSCTN WITH A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.  WL BOOST HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME GIVEN THE S/SW BOUNDARY
LYR FLOW AND PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH.  THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE
NRN AREAS BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WL
STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND.  MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WL BOOST PWATS TO 2 TO 2.4
INCHES ACROSS THE CWA.  WL CARRY AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED HIGHER ONCE THE MODEL SOLNS
SETTLE ON MORE CONSISTENT TIMING WITH THE FRONT/MOISTURE.  WL SHOW
A COOLING OF TEMPS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUD CVR...RAIN CHANCES AND MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  76  97  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          76  99  76  99  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 104  78 105  78  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             75 101  75 102  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          80  90  79  92  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  76 103  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76 101  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  93  79  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271718
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1218 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD MON MORNING FOR ALI...VCT AND CRP DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ON MON. SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 29KT...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A HOT AND DRY FCST TODAY. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A
PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE LARGE CAPE VALUES OF APPROX 5700
J/KG...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. OVERALL FCST LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED TO BECOME LIGHT...BUT 2000 FOOT
WINDS ARE NOT SUFFICIENT (ACCORDING TO BUFKIT) FOR WIND SHEAR (IT
WILL BE CLOSE IN KALI). KVCT WINDS ARE LIGHT TOO...BUT 2000 FOOT
WINDS ARE LIGHTER THERE TOO. THUS...NO WIND SHEAR. FOG HAS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPED IN KVCT...AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE IT WITH A
TEMPO IFR BR POSSIBLE THERE. MVFR POSSIBLE AT KALI...BUT WINDS ARE
UP A TAD MORE SO FOG MAY NOT FORM THERE. KALI COULD ALSO SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS AS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND IR/FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY.
BY 14Z...ALL THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GONE AND VFR SHOULD
RULE. NO CONVECTION IN TERMINALS WITH DRIER AIRMASS. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WIND PATTERN WITH WINDS STARTING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST
AND HIGHER/GUSTIER WITH SEA-BREEZE PASSAGE...THEN DECOUPLING AFTER
SUNSET. LESS WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE SOME FOG (MAYBE JUST GROUND FOG). FOR
NOW...PUT 4SM BR AT KVCT AND 6SM AT BR KALI...BOTH AT 10Z. LATER
AVIATION FORECASTERS CAN ADJUST AS-NEEDED...BUT IF WE HAD FOG THIS
MORNING AT AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS THEN FOG SHOULD BE EVEN A
BETTER BET ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINING FOR HIGH AND POSSIBLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
TODAY AND MONDAY. BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MOST INLAND AREAS (AREAS NEAR THE
COAST SHOULD BE BELOW). EXCEPTIONS TO INLAND AREAS WILL BE LA
SALLE...MCMULLEN AND DUVAL COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WILL DROP
ENOUGH TO KEEP INDICES BELOW 110 (ALSO WILL NOT INCLUDE ARANSAS AND
CALHOUN COUNTIES AS THEY WILL NOT GET WARM ENOUGH). SOME LOCATIONS
IN ADVISORY MAY HAVE INDICES OF 110 OR MORE FOR JUST AN HOUR...BUT
DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THIS ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS SUNDAY
AND MORE PEOPLE MAY BE OUTDOORS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE (AGAIN) THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (EVENING SOUNDING HAD PWATS 1.5 INCHES). CAP
IS STILL STRONG (TODAY ESPECIALLY...NOT AS MUCH NORTHEAST MONDAY).
WINDS WILL BE UP TOO TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK JET
MOVING TOWARD AREA BUT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE ON THE GOOD SIDE OF
IT. IN ANY CASE...NO SHOWER/THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AGAIN THROUGH
MONDAY. STILL BREEZY SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ONCE SEA-BREEZE
PASSES.

AM EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME TODAY AS
YESTERDAY...THEN ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON MONDAY WITH COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT. FRONT ENTERS (OR
APPROACHES) NORTH TEXAS MONDAY...SO LESS WIND IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONCE AGAIN...THE ONLY REAL
STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS WITH THE POTENTIAL COLD FRONT. NOT
TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY 12Z FORECASTS. ECMWF MODEL STRONGER
WITH FRONT...BUT WITH LESS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. GFS POOLS MOISTURE
BETTER OVER THE REGION...BUT JUST OOZES THE FRONT INTO THE AREA.
WHILE GFS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS CONSISTENT...ITS CURRENT SOLUTION
SEEMS A BIT MORE REALISTIC. HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD (BUT NOT
COMPLETELY) WITH GFS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS START THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION OF FRONT STALLING AND LINGERING OVER REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MAY BE ABLE TO RAISE TO CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...IF CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS FOR ANOTHER
RUN OR TWO. EXPECT HOT TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT
SHOULD THEN BEGIN COOLING OFF...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT. COULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BY FRI/SATURDAY FOR PART OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  77  96  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          99  76  99  76  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  80 104  78 103  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE            102  75 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          92  80  92  79  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 100  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  77  99  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271502
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1002 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A HOT AND DRY FCST TODAY. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A
PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE LARGE CAPE VALUES OF APPROX 5700
J/KG...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. OVERALL FCST LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED TO BECOME LIGHT...BUT 2000 FOOT
WINDS ARE NOT SUFFICIENT (ACCORDING TO BUFKIT) FOR WIND SHEAR (IT
WILL BE CLOSE IN KALI). KVCT WINDS ARE LIGHT TOO...BUT 2000 FOOT
WINDS ARE LIGHTER THERE TOO. THUS...NO WIND SHEAR. FOG HAS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPED IN KVCT...AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE IT WITH A
TEMPO IFR BR POSSIBLE THERE. MVFR POSSIBLE AT KALI...BUT WINDS ARE
UP A TAD MORE SO FOG MAY NOT FORM THERE. KALI COULD ALSO SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS AS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND IR/FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY.
BY 14Z...ALL THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GONE AND VFR SHOULD
RULE. NO CONVECTION IN TERMINALS WITH DRIER AIRMASS. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WIND PATTERN WITH WINDS STARTING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST
AND HIGHER/GUSTIER WITH SEA-BREEZE PASSAGE...THEN DECOUPLING AFTER
SUNSET. LESS WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE SOME FOG (MAYBE JUST GROUND FOG). FOR
NOW...PUT 4SM BR AT KVCT AND 6SM AT BR KALI...BOTH AT 10Z. LATER
AVIATION FORECASTERS CAN ADJUST AS-NEEDED...BUT IF WE HAD FOG THIS
MORNING AT AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS THEN FOG SHOULD BE EVEN A
BETTER BET ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINING FOR HIGH AND POSSIBLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
TODAY AND MONDAY. BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MOST INLAND AREAS (AREAS NEAR THE
COAST SHOULD BE BELOW). EXCEPTIONS TO INLAND AREAS WILL BE LA
SALLE...MCMULLEN AND DUVAL COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WILL DROP
ENOUGH TO KEEP INDICES BELOW 110 (ALSO WILL NOT INCLUDE ARANSAS AND
CALHOUN COUNTIES AS THEY WILL NOT GET WARM ENOUGH). SOME LOCATIONS
IN ADVISORY MAY HAVE INDICES OF 110 OR MORE FOR JUST AN HOUR...BUT
DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THIS ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS SUNDAY
AND MORE PEOPLE MAY BE OUTDOORS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE (AGAIN) THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (EVENING SOUNDING HAD PWATS 1.5 INCHES). CAP
IS STILL STRONG (TODAY ESPECIALLY...NOT AS MUCH NORTHEAST MONDAY).
WINDS WILL BE UP TOO TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK JET
MOVING TOWARD AREA BUT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE ON THE GOOD SIDE OF
IT. IN ANY CASE...NO SHOWER/THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AGAIN THROUGH
MONDAY. STILL BREEZY SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ONCE SEA-BREEZE
PASSES.

AM EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME TODAY AS
YESTERDAY...THEN ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON MONDAY WITH COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT. FRONT ENTERS (OR
APPROACHES) NORTH TEXAS MONDAY...SO LESS WIND IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONCE AGAIN...THE ONLY REAL
STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS WITH THE POTENTIAL COLD FRONT. NOT
TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY 12Z FORECASTS. ECMWF MODEL STRONGER
WITH FRONT...BUT WITH LESS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. GFS POOLS MOISTURE
BETTER OVER THE REGION...BUT JUST OOZES THE FRONT INTO THE AREA.
WHILE GFS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS CONSISTENT...ITS CURRENT SOLUTION
SEEMS A BIT MORE REALISTIC. HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD (BUT NOT
COMPLETELY) WITH GFS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS START THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION OF FRONT STALLING AND LINGERING OVER REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MAY BE ABLE TO RAISE TO CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...IF CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS FOR ANOTHER
RUN OR TWO. EXPECT HOT TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT
SHOULD THEN BEGIN COOLING OFF...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT. COULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BY FRI/SATURDAY FOR PART OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  77  96  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          99  76  99  76  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  80 104  78 103  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE            102  75 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          92  80  92  79  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 100  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  77  99  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 271502
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1002 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A HOT AND DRY FCST TODAY. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A
PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE LARGE CAPE VALUES OF APPROX 5700
J/KG...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. OVERALL FCST LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED TO BECOME LIGHT...BUT 2000 FOOT
WINDS ARE NOT SUFFICIENT (ACCORDING TO BUFKIT) FOR WIND SHEAR (IT
WILL BE CLOSE IN KALI). KVCT WINDS ARE LIGHT TOO...BUT 2000 FOOT
WINDS ARE LIGHTER THERE TOO. THUS...NO WIND SHEAR. FOG HAS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPED IN KVCT...AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE IT WITH A
TEMPO IFR BR POSSIBLE THERE. MVFR POSSIBLE AT KALI...BUT WINDS ARE
UP A TAD MORE SO FOG MAY NOT FORM THERE. KALI COULD ALSO SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS AS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND IR/FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY.
BY 14Z...ALL THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GONE AND VFR SHOULD
RULE. NO CONVECTION IN TERMINALS WITH DRIER AIRMASS. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WIND PATTERN WITH WINDS STARTING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST
AND HIGHER/GUSTIER WITH SEA-BREEZE PASSAGE...THEN DECOUPLING AFTER
SUNSET. LESS WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE SOME FOG (MAYBE JUST GROUND FOG). FOR
NOW...PUT 4SM BR AT KVCT AND 6SM AT BR KALI...BOTH AT 10Z. LATER
AVIATION FORECASTERS CAN ADJUST AS-NEEDED...BUT IF WE HAD FOG THIS
MORNING AT AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS THEN FOG SHOULD BE EVEN A
BETTER BET ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINING FOR HIGH AND POSSIBLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
TODAY AND MONDAY. BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MOST INLAND AREAS (AREAS NEAR THE
COAST SHOULD BE BELOW). EXCEPTIONS TO INLAND AREAS WILL BE LA
SALLE...MCMULLEN AND DUVAL COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WILL DROP
ENOUGH TO KEEP INDICES BELOW 110 (ALSO WILL NOT INCLUDE ARANSAS AND
CALHOUN COUNTIES AS THEY WILL NOT GET WARM ENOUGH). SOME LOCATIONS
IN ADVISORY MAY HAVE INDICES OF 110 OR MORE FOR JUST AN HOUR...BUT
DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THIS ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS SUNDAY
AND MORE PEOPLE MAY BE OUTDOORS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE (AGAIN) THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (EVENING SOUNDING HAD PWATS 1.5 INCHES). CAP
IS STILL STRONG (TODAY ESPECIALLY...NOT AS MUCH NORTHEAST MONDAY).
WINDS WILL BE UP TOO TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK JET
MOVING TOWARD AREA BUT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE ON THE GOOD SIDE OF
IT. IN ANY CASE...NO SHOWER/THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AGAIN THROUGH
MONDAY. STILL BREEZY SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ONCE SEA-BREEZE
PASSES.

AM EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME TODAY AS
YESTERDAY...THEN ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON MONDAY WITH COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT. FRONT ENTERS (OR
APPROACHES) NORTH TEXAS MONDAY...SO LESS WIND IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONCE AGAIN...THE ONLY REAL
STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS WITH THE POTENTIAL COLD FRONT. NOT
TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY 12Z FORECASTS. ECMWF MODEL STRONGER
WITH FRONT...BUT WITH LESS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. GFS POOLS MOISTURE
BETTER OVER THE REGION...BUT JUST OOZES THE FRONT INTO THE AREA.
WHILE GFS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS CONSISTENT...ITS CURRENT SOLUTION
SEEMS A BIT MORE REALISTIC. HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD (BUT NOT
COMPLETELY) WITH GFS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS START THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION OF FRONT STALLING AND LINGERING OVER REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MAY BE ABLE TO RAISE TO CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...IF CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS FOR ANOTHER
RUN OR TWO. EXPECT HOT TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT
SHOULD THEN BEGIN COOLING OFF...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT. COULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BY FRI/SATURDAY FOR PART OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  77  96  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          99  76  99  76  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  80 104  78 103  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE            102  75 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          92  80  92  79  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 100  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  77  99  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 271145 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
645 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED TO BECOME LIGHT...BUT 2000 FOOT
WINDS ARE NOT SUFFICIENT (ACCORDING TO BUFKIT) FOR WIND SHEAR (IT
WILL BE CLOSE IN KALI). KVCT WINDS ARE LIGHT TOO...BUT 2000 FOOT
WINDS ARE LIGHTER THERE TOO. THUS...NO WIND SHEAR. FOG HAS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPED IN KVCT...AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE IT WITH A
TEMPO IFR BR POSSIBLE THERE. MVFR POSSIBLE AT KALI...BUT WINDS ARE
UP A TAD MORE SO FOG MAY NOT FORM THERE. KALI COULD ALSO SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS AS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND IR/FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY.
BY 14Z...ALL THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GONE AND VFR SHOULD
RULE. NO CONVECTION IN TERMINALS WITH DRIER AIRMASS. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WIND PATTERN WITH WINDS STARTING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST
AND HIGHER/GUSTIER WITH SEA-BREEZE PASSAGE...THEN DECOUPLING AFTER
SUNSET. LESS WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE SOME FOG (MAYBE JUST GROUND FOG). FOR
NOW...PUT 4SM BR AT KVCT AND 6SM AT BR KALI...BOTH AT 10Z. LATER
AVIATION FORECASTERS CAN ADJUST AS-NEEDED...BUT IF WE HAD FOG THIS
MORNING AT AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS THEN FOG SHOULD BE EVEN A
BETTER BET ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINING FOR HIGH AND POSSIBLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
TODAY AND MONDAY. BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MOST INLAND AREAS (AREAS NEAR THE
COAST SHOULD BE BELOW). EXCEPTIONS TO INLAND AREAS WILL BE LA
SALLE...MCMULLEN AND DUVAL COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WILL DROP
ENOUGH TO KEEP INDICES BELOW 110 (ALSO WILL NOT INCLUDE ARANSAS AND
CALHOUN COUNTIES AS THEY WILL NOT GET WARM ENOUGH). SOME LOCATIONS
IN ADVISORY MAY HAVE INDICES OF 110 OR MORE FOR JUST AN HOUR...BUT
DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THIS ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS SUNDAY
AND MORE PEOPLE MAY BE OUTDOORS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE (AGAIN) THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (EVENING SOUNDING HAD PWATS 1.5 INCHES). CAP
IS STILL STRONG (TODAY ESPECIALLY...NOT AS MUCH NORTHEAST MONDAY).
WINDS WILL BE UP TOO TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK JET
MOVING TOWARD AREA BUT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE ON THE GOOD SIDE OF
IT. IN ANY CASE...NO SHOWER/THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AGAIN THROUGH
MONDAY. STILL BREEZY SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ONCE SEA-BREEZE
PASSES.

AM EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME TODAY AS
YESTERDAY...THEN ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON MONDAY WITH COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT. FRONT ENTERS (OR
APPROACHES) NORTH TEXAS MONDAY...SO LESS WIND IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONCE AGAIN...THE ONLY REAL
STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS WITH THE POTENTIAL COLD FRONT. NOT
TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY 12Z FORECASTS. ECMWF MODEL STRONGER
WITH FRONT...BUT WITH LESS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. GFS POOLS MOISTURE
BETTER OVER THE REGION...BUT JUST OOZES THE FRONT INTO THE AREA.
WHILE GFS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS CONSISTENT...ITS CURRENT SOLUTION
SEEMS A BIT MORE REALISTIC. HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD (BUT NOT
COMPLETELY) WITH GFS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS START THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION OF FRONT STALLING AND LINGERING OVER REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MAY BE ABLE TO RAISE TO CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...IF CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS FOR ANOTHER
RUN OR TWO. EXPECT HOT TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT
SHOULD THEN BEGIN COOLING OFF...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT. COULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BY FRI/SATURDAY FOR PART OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  77  96  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          99  76  99  76  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  80 104  78 103  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE            102  75 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          92  80  92  79  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 100  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  77  99  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 271145 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
645 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED TO BECOME LIGHT...BUT 2000 FOOT
WINDS ARE NOT SUFFICIENT (ACCORDING TO BUFKIT) FOR WIND SHEAR (IT
WILL BE CLOSE IN KALI). KVCT WINDS ARE LIGHT TOO...BUT 2000 FOOT
WINDS ARE LIGHTER THERE TOO. THUS...NO WIND SHEAR. FOG HAS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPED IN KVCT...AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE IT WITH A
TEMPO IFR BR POSSIBLE THERE. MVFR POSSIBLE AT KALI...BUT WINDS ARE
UP A TAD MORE SO FOG MAY NOT FORM THERE. KALI COULD ALSO SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS AS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND IR/FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY.
BY 14Z...ALL THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GONE AND VFR SHOULD
RULE. NO CONVECTION IN TERMINALS WITH DRIER AIRMASS. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WIND PATTERN WITH WINDS STARTING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST
AND HIGHER/GUSTIER WITH SEA-BREEZE PASSAGE...THEN DECOUPLING AFTER
SUNSET. LESS WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SO THERE COULD BE SOME FOG (MAYBE JUST GROUND FOG). FOR
NOW...PUT 4SM BR AT KVCT AND 6SM AT BR KALI...BOTH AT 10Z. LATER
AVIATION FORECASTERS CAN ADJUST AS-NEEDED...BUT IF WE HAD FOG THIS
MORNING AT AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS THEN FOG SHOULD BE EVEN A
BETTER BET ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINING FOR HIGH AND POSSIBLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
TODAY AND MONDAY. BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MOST INLAND AREAS (AREAS NEAR THE
COAST SHOULD BE BELOW). EXCEPTIONS TO INLAND AREAS WILL BE LA
SALLE...MCMULLEN AND DUVAL COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WILL DROP
ENOUGH TO KEEP INDICES BELOW 110 (ALSO WILL NOT INCLUDE ARANSAS AND
CALHOUN COUNTIES AS THEY WILL NOT GET WARM ENOUGH). SOME LOCATIONS
IN ADVISORY MAY HAVE INDICES OF 110 OR MORE FOR JUST AN HOUR...BUT
DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THIS ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS SUNDAY
AND MORE PEOPLE MAY BE OUTDOORS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE (AGAIN) THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (EVENING SOUNDING HAD PWATS 1.5 INCHES). CAP
IS STILL STRONG (TODAY ESPECIALLY...NOT AS MUCH NORTHEAST MONDAY).
WINDS WILL BE UP TOO TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK JET
MOVING TOWARD AREA BUT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE ON THE GOOD SIDE OF
IT. IN ANY CASE...NO SHOWER/THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AGAIN THROUGH
MONDAY. STILL BREEZY SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ONCE SEA-BREEZE
PASSES.

AM EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME TODAY AS
YESTERDAY...THEN ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON MONDAY WITH COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT. FRONT ENTERS (OR
APPROACHES) NORTH TEXAS MONDAY...SO LESS WIND IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONCE AGAIN...THE ONLY REAL
STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS WITH THE POTENTIAL COLD FRONT. NOT
TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY 12Z FORECASTS. ECMWF MODEL STRONGER
WITH FRONT...BUT WITH LESS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. GFS POOLS MOISTURE
BETTER OVER THE REGION...BUT JUST OOZES THE FRONT INTO THE AREA.
WHILE GFS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS CONSISTENT...ITS CURRENT SOLUTION
SEEMS A BIT MORE REALISTIC. HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD (BUT NOT
COMPLETELY) WITH GFS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS START THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION OF FRONT STALLING AND LINGERING OVER REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MAY BE ABLE TO RAISE TO CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...IF CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS FOR ANOTHER
RUN OR TWO. EXPECT HOT TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT
SHOULD THEN BEGIN COOLING OFF...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT. COULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BY FRI/SATURDAY FOR PART OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  77  96  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          99  76  99  76  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  80 104  78 103  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE            102  75 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          92  80  92  79  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 100  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  77  99  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 270901
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
401 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINING FOR HIGH AND POSSIBLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
TODAY AND MONDAY. BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MOST INLAND AREAS (AREAS NEAR THE
COAST SHOULD BE BELOW). EXCEPTIONS TO INLAND AREAS WILL BE LA
SALLE...MCMULLEN AND DUVAL COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WILL DROP
ENOUGH TO KEEP INDICES BELOW 110 (ALSO WILL NOT INCLUDE ARANSAS AND
CALHOUN COUNTIES AS THEY WILL NOT GET WARM ENOUGH). SOME LOCATIONS
IN ADVISORY MAY HAVE INDICES OF 110 OR MORE FOR JUST AN HOUR...BUT
DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THIS ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS SUNDAY
AND MORE PEOPLE MAY BE OUTDOORS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE (AGAIN) THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (EVENING SOUNDING HAD PWATS 1.5 INCHES). CAP
IS STILL STRONG (TODAY ESPECIALLY...NOT AS MUCH NORTHEAST MONDAY).
WINDS WILL BE UP TOO TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK JET
MOVING TOWARD AREA BUT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE ON THE GOOD SIDE OF
IT. IN ANY CASE...NO SHOWER/THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AGAIN THROUGH
MONDAY. STILL BREEZY SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ONCE SEA-BREEZE
PASSES.

AM EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME TODAY AS
YESTERDAY...THEN ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON MONDAY WITH COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT. FRONT ENTERS (OR
APPROACHES) NORTH TEXAS MONDAY...SO LESS WIND IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONCE AGAIN...THE ONLY REAL
STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS WITH THE POTENTIAL COLD FRONT. NOT
TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY 12Z FORECASTS. ECMWF MODEL STRONGER
WITH FRONT...BUT WITH LESS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. GFS POOLS MOISTURE
BETTER OVER THE REGION...BUT JUST OOZES THE FRONT INTO THE AREA.
WHILE GFS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS CONSISTENT...ITS CURRENT SOLUTION
SEEMS A BIT MORE REALISTIC. HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD (BUT NOT
COMPLETELY) WITH GFS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS START THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION OF FRONT STALLING AND LINGERING OVER REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MAY BE ABLE TO RAISE TO CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...IF CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS FOR ANOTHER
RUN OR TWO. EXPECT HOT TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT
SHOULD THEN BEGIN COOLING OFF...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT. COULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BY FRI/SATURDAY FOR PART OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  77  96  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          99  76  99  76  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  80 104  78 103  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE            102  75 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          92  80  92  79  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 100  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  77  99  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270901
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
401 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINING FOR HIGH AND POSSIBLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
TODAY AND MONDAY. BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MOST INLAND AREAS (AREAS NEAR THE
COAST SHOULD BE BELOW). EXCEPTIONS TO INLAND AREAS WILL BE LA
SALLE...MCMULLEN AND DUVAL COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WILL DROP
ENOUGH TO KEEP INDICES BELOW 110 (ALSO WILL NOT INCLUDE ARANSAS AND
CALHOUN COUNTIES AS THEY WILL NOT GET WARM ENOUGH). SOME LOCATIONS
IN ADVISORY MAY HAVE INDICES OF 110 OR MORE FOR JUST AN HOUR...BUT
DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THIS ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS SUNDAY
AND MORE PEOPLE MAY BE OUTDOORS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE (AGAIN) THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (EVENING SOUNDING HAD PWATS 1.5 INCHES). CAP
IS STILL STRONG (TODAY ESPECIALLY...NOT AS MUCH NORTHEAST MONDAY).
WINDS WILL BE UP TOO TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK JET
MOVING TOWARD AREA BUT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE ON THE GOOD SIDE OF
IT. IN ANY CASE...NO SHOWER/THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AGAIN THROUGH
MONDAY. STILL BREEZY SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ONCE SEA-BREEZE
PASSES.

AM EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME TODAY AS
YESTERDAY...THEN ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON MONDAY WITH COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT. FRONT ENTERS (OR
APPROACHES) NORTH TEXAS MONDAY...SO LESS WIND IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONCE AGAIN...THE ONLY REAL
STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS WITH THE POTENTIAL COLD FRONT. NOT
TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY 12Z FORECASTS. ECMWF MODEL STRONGER
WITH FRONT...BUT WITH LESS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. GFS POOLS MOISTURE
BETTER OVER THE REGION...BUT JUST OOZES THE FRONT INTO THE AREA.
WHILE GFS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS CONSISTENT...ITS CURRENT SOLUTION
SEEMS A BIT MORE REALISTIC. HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD (BUT NOT
COMPLETELY) WITH GFS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS START THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION OF FRONT STALLING AND LINGERING OVER REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MAY BE ABLE TO RAISE TO CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...IF CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS FOR ANOTHER
RUN OR TWO. EXPECT HOT TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT
SHOULD THEN BEGIN COOLING OFF...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT. COULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BY FRI/SATURDAY FOR PART OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  77  96  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          99  76  99  76  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  80 104  78 103  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE            102  75 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          92  80  92  79  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  75 100  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  77  99  76  97  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 270512 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1212 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER TO PUT WIND SHEAR IN ANY OF THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING. BUFKIT PROGRAM SOUNDINGS SAY
WIND SHEAR IS UNLIKELY SO WILL GO WITH THAT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE
CLOSE IF SURFACE WINDS REALLY BECOME LIGHT. WILL RE-VISIT THAT FOR
THE 12Z ISSUANCE...OR IF IT LOOKS MORE PROBABLE EARLIER...AN
UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. NO CONVECTION IN TERMINALS WITH DRIER AIRMASS. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WIND PATTERN WITH WINDS STARTING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST
AND HIGHER/GUSTIER WITH SEA-BREEZE PASSAGE...THEN DECOUPLING AFTER
SUNSET. LESS WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT SO WIND SHEAR NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE 12Z
ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE WIND. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THE WINDS WERE JUST STARTING TO DECOUPLE IN THE PAST HOUR AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL ALLOW THE SCA`S TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HEAT
INDICIES ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110 DEG.
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS DID NOT QUITE REACH THIS VALUE TODAY...
SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER ON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  96  76  97  76  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA          76  98  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 103  79 103  80  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             75 100  75 100  75  /  10  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  92  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 100  76 102  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  76  98  75  /  10  10  10   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  93  80  90  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 270242
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
942 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE WIND. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THE WINDS WERE JUST STARTING TO DECOUPLE IN THE PAST HOUR AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL ALLOW THE SCA`S TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HEAT
INDICIES ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110 DEG.
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS DID NOT QUITE REACH THIS VALUE TODAY...
SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER ON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  97  77  96  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  98  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 105  78 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76 101  75 100  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  93  79  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 102  75 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  93  80  93  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 262337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS RELAX OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING
A BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE MID MORNING...AND BREEZY WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH
DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE SUBTROPICAL RDG
AXIS WL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WL KEEP POPS CLOSE
TO NIL. LIMITED CLOUD CVR AND WARM BOUNDARY LYR TEMPS WL CONTINUE
THE ABV NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND WL HOVER NEAR HEAT ADVY CRITERIA FOR
SUNDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SO ANOTHER HEAT ADVY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE
NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL
IDEA IS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS NUDGED WESTWARD AS YET ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES
SOUTH. STILL VERY UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE FEATURE ITSELF OR ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL AFFECT US DIRECTLY. GFS ESSENTIALLY LINES UP
THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE BACK TO THE
PANHANDLE...WHICH WOULD KEEP US HOT AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAK IMPULSES COULD CREATE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY POSITIONING BUT MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
WEAKER...OVERALL RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUT MORE VARIABLE RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS DISTANCE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONS OVER THE EAST
APPEAR WARRANTED...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
PEAK TEMPERATURES LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SHAVES A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...THE THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS SWD. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON SUNDAY AND SO MAINLY CAUTION
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED. A FEW ROGUE STREAMER SHRAS WL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  97  77  96  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  98  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 105  78 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76 101  75 100  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  93  79  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 102  75 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  93  80  93  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 262337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS RELAX OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING
A BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE MID MORNING...AND BREEZY WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH
DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE SUBTROPICAL RDG
AXIS WL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WL KEEP POPS CLOSE
TO NIL. LIMITED CLOUD CVR AND WARM BOUNDARY LYR TEMPS WL CONTINUE
THE ABV NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND WL HOVER NEAR HEAT ADVY CRITERIA FOR
SUNDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SO ANOTHER HEAT ADVY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE
NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL
IDEA IS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS NUDGED WESTWARD AS YET ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES
SOUTH. STILL VERY UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE FEATURE ITSELF OR ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL AFFECT US DIRECTLY. GFS ESSENTIALLY LINES UP
THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE BACK TO THE
PANHANDLE...WHICH WOULD KEEP US HOT AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAK IMPULSES COULD CREATE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY POSITIONING BUT MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
WEAKER...OVERALL RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUT MORE VARIABLE RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS DISTANCE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONS OVER THE EAST
APPEAR WARRANTED...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
PEAK TEMPERATURES LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SHAVES A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...THE THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS SWD. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON SUNDAY AND SO MAINLY CAUTION
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED. A FEW ROGUE STREAMER SHRAS WL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  97  77  96  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  98  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 105  78 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76 101  75 100  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  93  79  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 102  75 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  93  80  93  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 261923
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE SUBTROPICAL RDG
AXIS WL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WL KEEP POPS CLOSE
TO NIL. LIMITED CLOUD CVR AND WARM BOUNDARY LYR TEMPS WL CONTINUE
THE ABV NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND WL HOVER NEAR HEAT ADVY CRITERIA FOR
SUNDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SO ANOTHER HEAT ADVY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE
NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL
IDEA IS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS NUDGED WESTWARD AS YET ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES
SOUTH. STILL VERY UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE FEATURE ITSELF OR ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL AFFECT US DIRECTLY. GFS ESSENTIALLY LINES UP
THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE BACK TO THE
PANHANDLE...WHICH WOULD KEEP US HOT AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAK IMPULSES COULD CREATE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY POSITIONING BUT MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
WEAKER...OVERALL RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUT MORE VARIABLE RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS DISTANCE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONS OVER THE EAST
APPEAR WARRANTED...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
PEAK TEMPERATURES LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SHAVES A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...THE THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS SWD. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON SUNDAY AND SO MAINLY CAUTION
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED. A FEW ROGUE STREAMER SHRAS WL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  97  77  96  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  98  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 105  78 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76 101  75 100  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  93  79  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 102  75 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  93  80  93  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 261923
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE SUBTROPICAL RDG
AXIS WL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WL KEEP POPS CLOSE
TO NIL. LIMITED CLOUD CVR AND WARM BOUNDARY LYR TEMPS WL CONTINUE
THE ABV NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND WL HOVER NEAR HEAT ADVY CRITERIA FOR
SUNDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SO ANOTHER HEAT ADVY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE
NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL
IDEA IS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS NUDGED WESTWARD AS YET ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES
SOUTH. STILL VERY UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE FEATURE ITSELF OR ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL AFFECT US DIRECTLY. GFS ESSENTIALLY LINES UP
THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE BACK TO THE
PANHANDLE...WHICH WOULD KEEP US HOT AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAK IMPULSES COULD CREATE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY POSITIONING BUT MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
WEAKER...OVERALL RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUT MORE VARIABLE RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS DISTANCE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONS OVER THE EAST
APPEAR WARRANTED...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
PEAK TEMPERATURES LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SHAVES A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...THE THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS SWD. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON SUNDAY AND SO MAINLY CAUTION
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED. A FEW ROGUE STREAMER SHRAS WL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  97  77  96  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  98  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 105  78 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76 101  75 100  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  93  79  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 102  75 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  93  80  93  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 261720
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
FCST PD ACROSS SOUTH TX AS A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS PREVAILS.
VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z
SUNDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND...MOSTLY THE VCT AREA. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS ALI AND CRP WL PERSIST UNTIL 02-03Z THIS
EVENING. BRIEF WINDS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
LRD BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
REACHES THIS AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE KCRP 12Z SOUNDING ALONG WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
THE LATEST GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA TDA COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS. WHILE
VERY ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT...IT WL BE DRY FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA TDA. THE MAIN ISSUE
WL BE THE HEAT INDICES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND A WARMER BOUNDARY
LYR PER THE KCRP SOUNDING...HIGHS TDA WL BE A TAD WARMER. ALTHOUGH
DEW POINTS WL STILL MIX OUT SOMEWHAT...BLV THERE WL BE SVRL HOURS OF AT
LEAST BORDERLINE HEAT ADVY CRITERIA (110 DEGS) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL BEND. AS A RESULT...WL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVY AS IT
CURRENTLY STANDS.

MARINE...THE OTHER ISSUE WL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM YDA SHOULD BOOST THE SRN BAYS AND SRN
NEARSHORE WATERS TO MARGINAL SCA LVLS. AS A RESULT...ISSUED AN SCA
FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATE AFTN/EVE TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  78  97  77  95  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          99  77  98  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  80 105  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  76 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  81  93  79  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  77 102  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  77 100  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  82  93  80  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 261720
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
FCST PD ACROSS SOUTH TX AS A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS PREVAILS.
VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z
SUNDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND...MOSTLY THE VCT AREA. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS ALI AND CRP WL PERSIST UNTIL 02-03Z THIS
EVENING. BRIEF WINDS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
LRD BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
REACHES THIS AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE KCRP 12Z SOUNDING ALONG WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
THE LATEST GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA TDA COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS. WHILE
VERY ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT...IT WL BE DRY FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA TDA. THE MAIN ISSUE
WL BE THE HEAT INDICES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND A WARMER BOUNDARY
LYR PER THE KCRP SOUNDING...HIGHS TDA WL BE A TAD WARMER. ALTHOUGH
DEW POINTS WL STILL MIX OUT SOMEWHAT...BLV THERE WL BE SVRL HOURS OF AT
LEAST BORDERLINE HEAT ADVY CRITERIA (110 DEGS) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL BEND. AS A RESULT...WL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVY AS IT
CURRENTLY STANDS.

MARINE...THE OTHER ISSUE WL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM YDA SHOULD BOOST THE SRN BAYS AND SRN
NEARSHORE WATERS TO MARGINAL SCA LVLS. AS A RESULT...ISSUED AN SCA
FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATE AFTN/EVE TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  78  97  77  95  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          99  77  98  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  80 105  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  76 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  81  93  79  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  77 102  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  77 100  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  82  93  80  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 261606
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1106 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE KCRP 12Z SOUNDING ALONG WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
THE LATEST GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA TDA COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS. WHILE
VERY ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT...IT WL BE DRY FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA TDA. THE MAIN ISSUE
WL BE THE HEAT INDICES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND A WARMER BOUNDARY
LYR PER THE KCRP SOUNDING...HIGHS TDA WL BE A TAD WARMER. ALTHOUGH
DEW POINTS WL STILL MIX OUT SOMEWHAT...BLV THERE WL BE SVRL HOURS OF AT
LEAST BORDERLINE HEAT ADVY CRITERIA (110 DEGS) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL BEND. AS A RESULT...WL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVY AS IT
CURRENTLY STANDS.

&&

.MARINE...THE OTHER ISSUE WL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM YDA SHOULD BOOST THE SRN BAYS AND SRN
NEARSHORE WATERS TO MARGINAL SCA LVLS. AS A RESULT...ISSUED AN SCA
FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATE AFTN/EVE TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  78  97  77  95  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          99  77  98  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  80 105  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  76 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  81  93  79  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  77 102  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  77 100  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  82  93  80  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 261606
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1106 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE KCRP 12Z SOUNDING ALONG WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
THE LATEST GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA TDA COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS. WHILE
VERY ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT...IT WL BE DRY FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA TDA. THE MAIN ISSUE
WL BE THE HEAT INDICES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND A WARMER BOUNDARY
LYR PER THE KCRP SOUNDING...HIGHS TDA WL BE A TAD WARMER. ALTHOUGH
DEW POINTS WL STILL MIX OUT SOMEWHAT...BLV THERE WL BE SVRL HOURS OF AT
LEAST BORDERLINE HEAT ADVY CRITERIA (110 DEGS) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL BEND. AS A RESULT...WL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVY AS IT
CURRENTLY STANDS.

&&

.MARINE...THE OTHER ISSUE WL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM YDA SHOULD BOOST THE SRN BAYS AND SRN
NEARSHORE WATERS TO MARGINAL SCA LVLS. AS A RESULT...ISSUED AN SCA
FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATE AFTN/EVE TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  78  97  77  95  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          99  77  98  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  80 105  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  76 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  81  93  79  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  77 102  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  77 100  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  82  93  80  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 261131 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
631 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME LIGHT FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT KVCT AND KALI...AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. FOG SHOULD
LIFT BY 14Z BOTH LOCATIONS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARD. NOT
TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH SOUTH WINDS UP A
BIT MORE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA-BREEZE (EVENING AT KLRD) AND INCREASING IN
SPEED. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND CLOUDS WHEN NO
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AT KVCT LATE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER...AND HAVE GONE WITH 6SM THERE. VFR
OTHERWISE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS WITH WINDS WEAKENING SLOWER TONIGHT
THAN PREVIOUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINING FOR HIGH AND POSSIBLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
TODAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...MORE WINDS (INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION)
AND STRONGER CAP (700MB TEMPERATURES AOB 10C MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN ALL DAY SUNDAY). ALL OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER COULD OCCUR.
AM EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER TODAY (AND
SIMILAR ON SUNDAY TO THOSE ON FRIDAY)...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE
HIGH DEW POINTS...SHOULD SEE HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES
OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. WILL ISSUE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JIM WELLS AND POSSIBLY
REFUGIO COUNTY ALTHOUGH INDICES THERE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. WILL
ISSUE SPS FOR 105 TO 109 DEGREES READINGS ELSEWHERE. WARM AND MAINLY
CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF WINDS SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM.. BREEZY SOUTHEAST TODAY AND SUNDAY
AS WELL. THAT IS ABOUT IT.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE TODAY...AND BORDERLINE FOR NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. BIT LESS WIND ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING NORTHEASTERN AREAS...THEN NO RAIN TONIGHT OR SUNDAY WITH
DRIER AIR.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PULL OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST NEXT
WEEK DRAGGING A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT DROPPING SOUTH INTO TEXAS. THE
FRONT WILL WAVER OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FOR A FEW DAYS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MOST LIKELY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT COULD GET COLD ENOUGH IN
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. HAVE ADDED JUST
A BIT OF 20 POPS TO VICTORIA/CALHOUN COUNTIES. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND HELPS TO PULL THE FRONT DOWN. WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS NORTHEAST THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...AND POTENTIALLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES STILL NOT VERY
CLEAR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION DRIVING THE
TEMPS...BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BEGINNING THURSDAY...AND
MORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  78  97  77  95  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          99  77  98  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  80 105  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  76 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  81  93  79  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  77 102  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  77 100  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  82  93  80  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 260823
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
323 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINING FOR HIGH AND POSSIBLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
TODAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...MORE WINDS (INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION)
AND STRONGER CAP (700MB TEMPERATURES AOB 10C MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN ALL DAY SUNDAY). ALL OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER COULD OCCUR.
AM EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER TODAY (AND
SIMILAR ON SUNDAY TO THOSE ON FRIDAY)...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE
HIGH DEW POINTS...SHOULD SEE HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES
OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. WILL ISSUE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JIM WELLS AND POSSIBLY
REFUGIO COUNTY ALTHOUGH INDICES THERE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. WILL
ISSUE SPS FOR 105 TO 109 DEGREES READINGS ELSEWHERE. WARM AND MAINLY
CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF WINDS SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM.. BREEZY SOUTHEAST TODAY AND SUNDAY
AS WELL. THAT IS ABOUT IT.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE TODAY...AND BORDERLINE FOR NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. BIT LESS WIND ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING NORTHEASTERN AREAS...THEN NO RAIN TONIGHT OR SUNDAY WITH
DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PULL OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST NEXT
WEEK DRAGGING A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT DROPPING SOUTH INTO TEXAS. THE
FRONT WILL WAVER OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FOR A FEW DAYS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MOST LIKELY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT COULD GET COLD ENOUGH IN
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. HAVE ADDED JUST
A BIT OF 20 POPS TO VICTORIA/CALHOUN COUNTIES. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND HELPS TO PULL THE FRONT DOWN. WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS NORTHEAST THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...AND POTENTIALLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES STILL NOT VERY
CLEAR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION DRIVING THE
TEMPS...BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BEGINNING THURSDAY...AND
MORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  78  97  77  95  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          99  77  98  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  80 105  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  76 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  81  93  79  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  77 102  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  77 100  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  82  93  80  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 260823
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
323 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINING FOR HIGH AND POSSIBLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
TODAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...MORE WINDS (INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION)
AND STRONGER CAP (700MB TEMPERATURES AOB 10C MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN ALL DAY SUNDAY). ALL OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER COULD OCCUR.
AM EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER TODAY (AND
SIMILAR ON SUNDAY TO THOSE ON FRIDAY)...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE
HIGH DEW POINTS...SHOULD SEE HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES
OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. WILL ISSUE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JIM WELLS AND POSSIBLY
REFUGIO COUNTY ALTHOUGH INDICES THERE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. WILL
ISSUE SPS FOR 105 TO 109 DEGREES READINGS ELSEWHERE. WARM AND MAINLY
CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF WINDS SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM.. BREEZY SOUTHEAST TODAY AND SUNDAY
AS WELL. THAT IS ABOUT IT.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE TODAY...AND BORDERLINE FOR NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. BIT LESS WIND ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING NORTHEASTERN AREAS...THEN NO RAIN TONIGHT OR SUNDAY WITH
DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PULL OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST NEXT
WEEK DRAGGING A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT DROPPING SOUTH INTO TEXAS. THE
FRONT WILL WAVER OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FOR A FEW DAYS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MOST LIKELY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT COULD GET COLD ENOUGH IN
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. HAVE ADDED JUST
A BIT OF 20 POPS TO VICTORIA/CALHOUN COUNTIES. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND HELPS TO PULL THE FRONT DOWN. WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS NORTHEAST THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...AND POTENTIALLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES STILL NOT VERY
CLEAR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION DRIVING THE
TEMPS...BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BEGINNING THURSDAY...AND
MORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  78  97  77  95  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          99  77  98  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  80 105  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  76 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  81  93  79  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  77 102  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  77 100  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  82  93  80  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 260523 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1222 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...PRETTY STRAIGHT-FORWARD AVIATION FORECAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AND NO
BIG AVIATION CONCERNS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME BORDERLINE WIND SHEAR (SPEED) AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH LESS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY WITH A BIT STRONGER CAP...NEGATIVE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (STRONGER WINDS
MEAN LESS ABILITY FOR AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TOO). SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST WITH SEA-BREEZE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS AT KALI AND KCRP AND LESS AT KVCT. WINDS PICK UP AROUND
SUNSET AT KLRD BUT DIMINISH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. MODELS PROG PWAT`S TO DECREASE ACROSS S TX OVERNIGHT
BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SHRAS ACROSS THE
WATERS TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF
WATERS...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLD -SHRAS WITH A
10 POP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS IN THE MORNIING. WILL UPDATE COASTAL
WATERS TO INCLUDE THE MENTIION OF MORNING SHOWERS AND WILL UPDATE
ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING PRECIP. REST OF FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF KLRD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. STRONG LLJ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...AND EXPECT WINDS AT KLRD TO INCREASE TO WEAK TO
MODERATE FLOW THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINING TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST WITH
GUSTS AOA 25KTS BY THE MID AFTERNOON. DRIER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NOT FORECAST FOR
THE DAY TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT AN
UNSEASONABLY MODERATE TO STRONG SRLY LLJ IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN HALF OF CWA. THIS MAY AID IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLVL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE. A DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY AND AN INCREASE IN H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN
A DRIER DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COMBINATION OF HOT MAX TEMPS AND HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW SOME LOCATIONS TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WITH MOST AREAS HAVING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 109 DEGREES. WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZIEST OF THIS WEEK
AS STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
CWA. LLJ REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD AID IN KEEPING
MIN TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR A SECOND NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS RGN WL MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. THUS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE PCPN ASSCTD WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY A MORE POTENT FRONT AND S/WV WL BE AFFECTING THE CWA.
THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENING AS IT DROPS FURTHER SWD.  INCREASING
DEEP LAYER FORCING AND PWATS ABV 2 INCHES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
SLOW-MOVING FRONT WL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FOR
THURSDAY BUT MORE SO ON FRIDAY.  DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.  OVERALL THE SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD TEND TO MIX OUT AND KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT
ADVY CRITERIA.  WENT ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS BY
FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD CVR AND RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...BREEZIER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING THAN PAST SEVERAL EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  96  77  95  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  96  76  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 103  78 102  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  99  76  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  91  80  90  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 101  76 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  98  77  96  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  92  80  91  79  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 260523 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1222 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...PRETTY STRAIGHT-FORWARD AVIATION FORECAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AND NO
BIG AVIATION CONCERNS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME BORDERLINE WIND SHEAR (SPEED) AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH LESS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY WITH A BIT STRONGER CAP...NEGATIVE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (STRONGER WINDS
MEAN LESS ABILITY FOR AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TOO). SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST WITH SEA-BREEZE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS AT KALI AND KCRP AND LESS AT KVCT. WINDS PICK UP AROUND
SUNSET AT KLRD BUT DIMINISH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. MODELS PROG PWAT`S TO DECREASE ACROSS S TX OVERNIGHT
BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SHRAS ACROSS THE
WATERS TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF
WATERS...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLD -SHRAS WITH A
10 POP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS IN THE MORNIING. WILL UPDATE COASTAL
WATERS TO INCLUDE THE MENTIION OF MORNING SHOWERS AND WILL UPDATE
ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING PRECIP. REST OF FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF KLRD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. STRONG LLJ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...AND EXPECT WINDS AT KLRD TO INCREASE TO WEAK TO
MODERATE FLOW THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINING TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST WITH
GUSTS AOA 25KTS BY THE MID AFTERNOON. DRIER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NOT FORECAST FOR
THE DAY TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT AN
UNSEASONABLY MODERATE TO STRONG SRLY LLJ IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN HALF OF CWA. THIS MAY AID IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLVL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE. A DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY AND AN INCREASE IN H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN
A DRIER DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COMBINATION OF HOT MAX TEMPS AND HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW SOME LOCATIONS TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WITH MOST AREAS HAVING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 109 DEGREES. WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZIEST OF THIS WEEK
AS STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
CWA. LLJ REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD AID IN KEEPING
MIN TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR A SECOND NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS RGN WL MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. THUS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE PCPN ASSCTD WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY A MORE POTENT FRONT AND S/WV WL BE AFFECTING THE CWA.
THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENING AS IT DROPS FURTHER SWD.  INCREASING
DEEP LAYER FORCING AND PWATS ABV 2 INCHES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
SLOW-MOVING FRONT WL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FOR
THURSDAY BUT MORE SO ON FRIDAY.  DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.  OVERALL THE SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD TEND TO MIX OUT AND KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT
ADVY CRITERIA.  WENT ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS BY
FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD CVR AND RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...BREEZIER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING THAN PAST SEVERAL EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  96  77  95  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  96  76  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 103  78 102  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  99  76  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  91  80  90  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 101  76 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  98  77  96  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  92  80  91  79  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 260136
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
836 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. MODELS PROG PWAT`S TO DECREASE ACROSS S TX OVERNIGHT
BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SHRAS ACROSS THE
WATERS TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF
WATERS...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLD -SHRAS WITH A
10 POP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS IN THE MORNIING. WILL UPDATE COASTAL
WATERS TO INCLUDE THE MENTIION OF MORNING SHOWERS AND WILL UPDATE
ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING PRECIP. REST OF FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF KLRD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. STRONG LLJ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...AND EXPECT WINDS AT KLRD TO INCREASE TO WEAK TO
MODERATE FLOW THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINING TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST WITH
GUSTS AOA 25KTS BY THE MID AFTERNOON. DRIER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NOT FORECAST FOR
THE DAY TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT AN
UNSEASONABLY MODERATE TO STRONG SRLY LLJ IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN HALF OF CWA. THIS MAY AID IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLVL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE. A DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY AND AN INCREASE IN H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN
A DRIER DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COMBINATION OF HOT MAX TEMPS AND HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW SOME LOCATIONS TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WITH MOST AREAS HAVING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 109 DEGREES. WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZIEST OF THIS WEEK
AS STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
CWA. LLJ REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD AID IN KEEPING
MIN TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR A SECOND NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS RGN WL MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. THUS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE PCPN ASSCTD WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY A MORE POTENT FRONT AND S/WV WL BE AFFECTING THE CWA.
THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENING AS IT DROPS FURTHER SWD.  INCREASING
DEEP LAYER FORCING AND PWATS ABV 2 INCHES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
SLOW-MOVING FRONT WL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FOR
THURSDAY BUT MORE SO ON FRIDAY.  DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.  OVERALL THE SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD TEND TO MIX OUT AND KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT
ADVY CRITERIA.  WENT ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS BY
FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD CVR AND RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...BREEZIER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING THAN PAST SEVERAL EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  97  78  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  98  77  96  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 105  80 103  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76 102  76  99  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  92  81  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 102  77 101  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        78  98  77  98  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  92  80  92  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 260136
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
836 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. MODELS PROG PWAT`S TO DECREASE ACROSS S TX OVERNIGHT
BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SHRAS ACROSS THE
WATERS TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF
WATERS...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLD -SHRAS WITH A
10 POP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS IN THE MORNIING. WILL UPDATE COASTAL
WATERS TO INCLUDE THE MENTIION OF MORNING SHOWERS AND WILL UPDATE
ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING PRECIP. REST OF FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF KLRD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. STRONG LLJ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...AND EXPECT WINDS AT KLRD TO INCREASE TO WEAK TO
MODERATE FLOW THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINING TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST WITH
GUSTS AOA 25KTS BY THE MID AFTERNOON. DRIER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NOT FORECAST FOR
THE DAY TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT AN
UNSEASONABLY MODERATE TO STRONG SRLY LLJ IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN HALF OF CWA. THIS MAY AID IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLVL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE. A DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY AND AN INCREASE IN H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN
A DRIER DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COMBINATION OF HOT MAX TEMPS AND HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW SOME LOCATIONS TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WITH MOST AREAS HAVING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 109 DEGREES. WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZIEST OF THIS WEEK
AS STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
CWA. LLJ REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD AID IN KEEPING
MIN TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR A SECOND NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS
CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS RGN WL MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. THUS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE PCPN ASSCTD WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY A MORE POTENT FRONT AND S/WV WL BE AFFECTING THE CWA.
THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENING AS IT DROPS FURTHER SWD.  INCREASING
DEEP LAYER FORCING AND PWATS ABV 2 INCHES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
SLOW-MOVING FRONT WL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FOR
THURSDAY BUT MORE SO ON FRIDAY.  DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.  OVERALL THE SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD TEND TO MIX OUT AND KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT
ADVY CRITERIA.  WENT ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS BY
FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD CVR AND RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...BREEZIER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING THAN PAST SEVERAL EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  97  78  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  98  77  96  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 105  80 103  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76 102  76  99  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  92  81  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 102  77 101  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        78  98  77  98  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  92  80  92  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






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