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000
FXUS64 KCRP 030930
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
430 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH COMPUTER MODELS
REPORTING LESS THAN 1 INCH BY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TRAPPED
BETWEEN 3K-7K FEET ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE
THE MORNING STRATUS. HOWEVER WILL EXPECT ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS...TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...AND EVEN WARMER WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EVEN DIP INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOW LYING AREAS BETWEEN
VICTORIA TO ALICE TO COTULLA.

FOR BEACH GOERS...TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH ALONG THE BEACHES AND
WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. FURTHER NORTH FROM
PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...HAVE REMOVED THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION TO THE COASTAL FLOOD...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM PORT
ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WARMING TREND WILL
OCCUR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE/CLOUDS INCREASING BY
SUNDAY. POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MEXICO
INTERACTING WITH HIGHER MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COULD BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WILL ONLY
SHOW 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  60  85  60  89  /  10  10   0   0   0
VICTORIA          79  54  84  57  86  /  10  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            83  61  90  64  94  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             82  57  87  58  91  /  10  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          81  62  84  64  87  /  10  10   0   0   0
COTULLA           82  56  88  59  93  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        82  57  86  60  90  /  10  10   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       80  63  82  65  86  /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 030930
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
430 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH COMPUTER MODELS
REPORTING LESS THAN 1 INCH BY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TRAPPED
BETWEEN 3K-7K FEET ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE
THE MORNING STRATUS. HOWEVER WILL EXPECT ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS...TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...AND EVEN WARMER WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EVEN DIP INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOW LYING AREAS BETWEEN
VICTORIA TO ALICE TO COTULLA.

FOR BEACH GOERS...TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH ALONG THE BEACHES AND
WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. FURTHER NORTH FROM
PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...HAVE REMOVED THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION TO THE COASTAL FLOOD...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM PORT
ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WARMING TREND WILL
OCCUR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE/CLOUDS INCREASING BY
SUNDAY. POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MEXICO
INTERACTING WITH HIGHER MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COULD BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WILL ONLY
SHOW 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  60  85  60  89  /  10  10   0   0   0
VICTORIA          79  54  84  57  86  /  10  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            83  61  90  64  94  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             82  57  87  58  91  /  10  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          81  62  84  64  87  /  10  10   0   0   0
COTULLA           82  56  88  59  93  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        82  57  86  60  90  /  10  10   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       80  63  82  65  86  /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 030527 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4K FT OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT AND
BECOME SCT-BKN BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT N-LY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER
OUT OF THE E-NE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VCT
REMAINING NORTHERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  83  62  88  66  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          55  83  56  87  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            61  91  62  92  67  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             57  87  58  91  61  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          63  85  67  85  73  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           56  86  60  92  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        59  85  60  90  63  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       65  81  67  84  72  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 030243
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
943 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...TIDE LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
DESPITE THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL PUT THEM VERY CLOSE TO 2FT
ABV MSL AT HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SKIRT THE 2FT MSL MARK
ONCE AGAIN TUE DURING HIGH TIDE. SWELLS ARE ALSO PERSISTENTLY RUNNING
10-14SEC AT THE BUOY 42020 SO WILL ALSO EXTEND THE HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK AS WELL. BOTH PRODUCTS WILL GO THROUGH 4 PM TUE
AFTERNOON. N WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...THUS WILL EXTEND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM TUE
MORNING. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE TIDE LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW THE 2FT MSL MARK
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THIS LEVEL DUE TO A WEAKENING
N/OFFSHORE WIND...THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALSO ALLOWED THE RIP CURRENT HAZARD TO
EXPIRE AS RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE LEVELS
TONIGHT DUE TO THE SAME REASONING ABOVE. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...A CLOUD DECK ACROSS S TX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE 4KFT.
COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING BY TUE AFTERNOON FROM N TO S. IN
ADDITION...A FEW WEAK SHRA`S WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE. THESE ISOLD WEAK SHRAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY NORTH WIND
CONTINUES IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. A FEW SMALL SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...BUT ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. A BEAUTIFUL DRY DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW AS MORE
SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT WITH LOW MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...AND
HIGHS WILL ONLY HIT THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LIGHTER WINDS
TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MASSIVE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN IN THE MID-LEVELS PLACES US RIGHT UNDER THE NEARLY FULL
LATITUDINAL RIDGING...DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE BLOCKING IS SLOW
TO BREAK DOWN BUT DOES SO OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE BRING BACK SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. BUILDING
HEIGHTS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TREND AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE COLUMN LOOKS
PRETTY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BREAKING DOWN. BETTER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL GENERATE DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING BACK MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  80  60  83  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          58  79  55  83  56  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            60  83  61  91  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             60  82  57  87  58  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          62  80  63  85  67  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           58  82  56  86  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        61  82  59  85  60  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  79  65  81  67  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 030006
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
706 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE TIDE LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW THE 2FT MSL MARK
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THIS LEVEL DUE TO A WEAKENING
N/OFFSHORE WIND...THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALSO ALLOWED THE RIP CURRENT HAZARD TO
EXPIRE AS RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE LEVELS
TONIGHT DUE TO THE SAME REASONING ABOVE. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...A CLOUD DECK ACROSS S TX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE 4KFT.
COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING BY TUE AFTERNOON FROM N TO S. IN
ADDITION...A FEW WEAK SHRA`S WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE. THESE ISOLD WEAK SHRAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY NORTH WIND
CONTINUES IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. A FEW SMALL SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...BUT ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. A BEAUTIFUL DRY DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW AS MORE
SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT WITH LOW MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...AND
HIGHS WILL ONLY HIT THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LIGHTER WINDS
TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MASSIVE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN IN THE MID-LEVELS PLACES US RIGHT UNDER THE NEARLY FULL
LATITUDINAL RIDGING...DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE BLOCKING IS SLOW
TO BREAK DOWN BUT DOES SO OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE BRING BACK SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. BUILDING
HEIGHTS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TREND AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE COLUMN LOOKS
PRETTY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BREAKING DOWN. BETTER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL GENERATE DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING BACK MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  80  60  83  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          58  79  55  83  56  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            60  83  61  91  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             60  82  57  87  58  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          62  80  63  85  67  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           58  82  56  86  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        61  82  59  85  60  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  79  65  81  67  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 030006
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
706 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE TIDE LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW THE 2FT MSL MARK
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THIS LEVEL DUE TO A WEAKENING
N/OFFSHORE WIND...THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALSO ALLOWED THE RIP CURRENT HAZARD TO
EXPIRE AS RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE LEVELS
TONIGHT DUE TO THE SAME REASONING ABOVE. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...A CLOUD DECK ACROSS S TX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE 4KFT.
COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING BY TUE AFTERNOON FROM N TO S. IN
ADDITION...A FEW WEAK SHRA`S WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE. THESE ISOLD WEAK SHRAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY NORTH WIND
CONTINUES IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. A FEW SMALL SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...BUT ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. A BEAUTIFUL DRY DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW AS MORE
SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT WITH LOW MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...AND
HIGHS WILL ONLY HIT THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LIGHTER WINDS
TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MASSIVE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN IN THE MID-LEVELS PLACES US RIGHT UNDER THE NEARLY FULL
LATITUDINAL RIDGING...DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE BLOCKING IS SLOW
TO BREAK DOWN BUT DOES SO OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE BRING BACK SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. BUILDING
HEIGHTS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TREND AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE COLUMN LOOKS
PRETTY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BREAKING DOWN. BETTER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL GENERATE DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING BACK MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  80  60  83  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          58  79  55  83  56  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            60  83  61  91  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             60  82  57  87  58  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          62  80  63  85  67  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           58  82  56  86  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        61  82  59  85  60  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  79  65  81  67  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 022304
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
604 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A CLOUD DECK ACROSS S TX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE 4KFT.
COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING BY TUE AFTERNOON FROM N TO S. IN
ADDITION...A FEW WEAK SHRA`S WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE. THESE ISOLD WEAK SHRAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY NORTH WIND
CONTINUES IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. A FEW SMALL SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...BUT ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. A BEAUTIFUL DRY DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW AS MORE
SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT WITH LOW MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...AND
HIGHS WILL ONLY HIT THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LIGHTER WINDS
TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MASSIVE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN IN THE MID-LEVELS PLACES US RIGHT UNDER THE NEARLY FULL
LATITUDINAL RIDGING...DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE BLOCKING IS SLOW
TO BREAK DOWN BUT DOES SO OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE BRING BACK SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. BUILDING
HEIGHTS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TREND AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE COLUMN LOOKS
PRETTY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BREAKING DOWN. BETTER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL GENERATE DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING BACK MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  80  60  83  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          58  79  55  83  56  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            60  83  61  91  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             60  82  57  87  58  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          62  80  63  85  67  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           58  82  56  86  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        61  82  59  85  60  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  79  65  81  67  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 022304
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
604 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A CLOUD DECK ACROSS S TX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE 4KFT.
COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING BY TUE AFTERNOON FROM N TO S. IN
ADDITION...A FEW WEAK SHRA`S WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE. THESE ISOLD WEAK SHRAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY NORTH WIND
CONTINUES IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. A FEW SMALL SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...BUT ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. A BEAUTIFUL DRY DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW AS MORE
SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT WITH LOW MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...AND
HIGHS WILL ONLY HIT THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LIGHTER WINDS
TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MASSIVE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN IN THE MID-LEVELS PLACES US RIGHT UNDER THE NEARLY FULL
LATITUDINAL RIDGING...DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE BLOCKING IS SLOW
TO BREAK DOWN BUT DOES SO OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE BRING BACK SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. BUILDING
HEIGHTS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TREND AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE COLUMN LOOKS
PRETTY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BREAKING DOWN. BETTER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL GENERATE DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING BACK MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  80  60  83  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          58  79  55  83  56  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            60  83  61  91  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             60  82  57  87  58  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          62  80  63  85  67  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           58  82  56  86  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        61  82  59  85  60  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  79  65  81  67  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 022028
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
328 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY NORTH WIND
CONTINUES IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. A FEW SMALL SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...BUT ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. A BEAUTIFUL DRY DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW AS MORE
SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT WITH LOW MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...AND
HIGHS WILL ONLY HIT THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LIGHTER WINDS
TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MASSIVE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN IN THE MID-LEVELS PLACES US RIGHT UNDER THE NEARLY FULL
LATITUDINAL RIDGING...DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE BLOCKING IS SLOW
TO BREAK DOWN BUT DOES SO OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE BRING BACK SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. BUILDING
HEIGHTS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TREND AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE COLUMN LOOKS
PRETTY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BREAKING DOWN. BETTER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL GENERATE DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING BACK MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  80  60  83  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          58  79  55  83  56  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            60  83  61  91  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             60  82  57  87  58  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          62  80  63  85  67  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           58  82  56  86  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        61  82  59  85  60  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  79  65  81  67  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
GH/77...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 021740
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS OVER LRD AND VCT HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AND WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS OVER
ALI AND CRP WITH LIGHT SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS. WIND WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN A FAIRLY MODERATE NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  61  84  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          59  78  56  83  58  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            61  83  62  89  63  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             62  81  59  86  60  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  79  63  81  66  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           59  81  56  87  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        63  81  60  85  60  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  79  66  82  67  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 021740
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS OVER LRD AND VCT HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AND WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS OVER
ALI AND CRP WITH LIGHT SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS. WIND WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN A FAIRLY MODERATE NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  61  84  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          59  78  56  83  58  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            61  83  62  89  63  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             62  81  59  86  60  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  79  63  81  66  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           59  81  56  87  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        63  81  60  85  60  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  79  66  82  67  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 021615
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1115 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH BREEZY NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL TREND WILL BE A CONTINUED
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTLINE
WILL ALLOW FOR MINOR TIDAL WASHOVER. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED WATER
CONDITIONS AND STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK ONGOING THROUGH TODAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE THUS
BEEN ISSUED AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EXTENDED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WITH OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST MORE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING...TIMING OF SCA ONSET WAS BUMPED UP BY A FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS WELL ON
TRACK...AND NO OTHER UPDATES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  64  79  61  84  /  40  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          73  59  78  56  83  /  40  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            75  61  83  62  89  /  40  10  10  10   0
ALICE             74  62  81  59  86  /  40  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          75  65  79  63  81  /  40  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           73  59  81  56  87  /  40  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  63  81  60  85  /  40  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  79  66  82  /  40  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 021139 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR/IFR
THIS MORNING BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING AS A BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION. BEST TIMING FOR THUNDER ACTIVITY REMAINS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER DECREASING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAIN ACTIVITY WILL WANE
THIS AFTN. NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 17Z-23Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM...LAPS ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TOWARD
COTULLA SOUTH TO LAREDO. A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST REMAINS...CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THUNDER ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO H85-H7 TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE WARM
SIDE. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF
MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AS INSTABILITY IS ABUNDANT ABOVE THE CAP.
THAT SAID...SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP...THERE REMAINS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT FROM STEEP LAPSE RATE
ALOFT...WITH HAIL AS A THREAT. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP
SHOULD HINDER MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY. THE
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING WITH PWATS SHOWING A DECREASING TREND AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK POPS HEADING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND WITH THIS COMBINED WITH THICK CLOUD
COVERAGE...HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM COTULLA TO VICTORIA...AND INTO THE MID 70S
FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
60S...WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S TUESDAY.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MARINE
AREAS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DRIER AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STAYS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U. S. WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BY
THE WEEKEND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW WITH ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COULD MOVE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INTERACT
WITH HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE. WILL SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  64  79  61  84  /  40  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          73  59  78  56  83  /  40  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            75  61  83  62  89  /  40  10  10  10   0
ALICE             74  62  81  59  86  /  40  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          75  65  79  63  81  /  40  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           73  59  81  56  87  /  40  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  63  81  60  85  /  40  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  79  66  82  /  40  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 020946
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
446 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...LAPS ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TOWARD
COTULLA SOUTH TO LAREDO. A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST REMAINS...CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THUNDER ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO H85-H7 TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE WARM
SIDE. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF
MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AS INSTABILITY IS ABUNDANT ABOVE THE CAP.
THAT SAID...SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP...THERE REMAINS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT FROM STEEP LAPSE RATE
ALOFT...WITH HAIL AS A THREAT. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP
SHOULD HINDER MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY. THE
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING WITH PWATS SHOWING A DECREASING TREND AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK POPS HEADING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND WITH THIS COMBINED WITH THICK CLOUD
COVERAGE...HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM COTULLA TO VICTORIA...AND INTO THE MID 70S
FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
60S...WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MARINE
AREAS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DRIER AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STAYS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U. S. WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BY
THE WEEKEND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW WITH ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COULD MOVE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INTERACT
WITH HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE. WILL SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  64  79  61  84  /  40  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          73  59  78  56  83  /  40  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            75  61  83  62  89  /  40  10  10  10   0
ALICE             74  62  81  59  86  /  40  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          75  65  79  63  81  /  40  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           73  59  81  56  87  /  40  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  63  81  60  85  /  40  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  79  66  82  /  40  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 020559 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1259 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS OF WRITING...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
HAS PUSHED THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A FEW ISO SHRAS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TOWARD 08Z- 10Z AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH. A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR
TOWARD 18Z AND RAIN ACTIVITY WANING THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  61  82  63  /  30  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          59  77  56  81  59  /  30  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            63  80  62  86  63  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             61  80  59  84  60  /  20  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  78  63  80  67  /  30  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           61  79  57  86  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        63  80  60  84  61  /  20  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  78  66  79  67  /  30  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 020559 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1259 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS OF WRITING...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
HAS PUSHED THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A FEW ISO SHRAS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TOWARD 08Z- 10Z AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH. A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR
TOWARD 18Z AND RAIN ACTIVITY WANING THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  61  82  63  /  30  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          59  77  56  81  59  /  30  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            63  80  62  86  63  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             61  80  59  84  60  /  20  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  78  63  80  67  /  30  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           61  79  57  86  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        63  80  60  84  61  /  20  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  78  66  79  67  /  30  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 020204 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
904 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS EVENING
BUT KEPT 40-60 POPS FOR 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. UPDATES WILL OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH PWAT OF 1.4 INCHES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNSTABLE BUT
850-700MB TEMPS ARE A BIT WARM RESULTING IN A CAPPING INVERSION.
THE SEA BREEZE DID PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS JUST NE OF THE CWA WHERE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WERE LOCATED. CONVECTION
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE NEAR EAGLE PASS HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES E-SE. A SHORT WAVE IS APPROACHING S TX
TONIGHT AND MODELS PROG A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AM
EXPECTING THAT THE COLD FRONT MOVG THROUGH S TX WILL CONVERGE WITH
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SEA BREEZE TO PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT.  AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE
TO THE MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND UPPER SUPPORT...SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG. ONCE THE COOLER/DRIER NEAR SFC SHALLOW AIRMASS UNDERCUTS
THE STORMS...THEY SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY MORE
STRATIFORM. WILL HOLD OFF MAKING ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR BY MID TO LATE MON MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR POSSIBLE TSRA`S
TONIGHT/MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
AND NEAR THE STORMS. THERE ARE ISOLD WEAK SHRA`S CURRENTLY DVLPG
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WHICH IS DRAPED FROM NEAR PKV TO NEAR ALI.
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HRS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO CONVECTION CURRENTLY DVLPG S OF DRT WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SE THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS S TX. THE CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO
MONDAY...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

WEAK/STALLING COLD FRONT IS STILL DRAPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AT THIS HOUR. IT HAS MADE VERY LITTLE IF ANY MOVEMENT SOUTH TODAY
BUT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION HAS REALLY HELD FIRM TODAY AS
WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DROP FARTHER SOUTH. THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING EXIST.
THE STORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY BECOME STRONG...POSSIBLY
ISOLATED SEVERE...AND RELATIVELY ORGANIZED WITH BETTER BULK SHEAR
INDICES AS THEY MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH PROJECTED
PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES ANY OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE URBAN AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR REGION BY MONDAY LATE
MORNING/EARLY  AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BACK TOWARDS MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS UNDER
A STIFFER NORTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COOLER DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS WELL AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. SCEC CONDITIONS
SHOULD END BY NOON OVER THE GULF WATERS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUE NGT
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES PLUMETING INTO
THE 50S INLAND (MID 60S COAST). CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED-THU WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AND INCREASES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MEAN
RH`S PROGGED BELOW 30% OUT WEST FRI-SAT AND INCREASING WINDS...COULD
SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH ABOVE
NORMAL FUEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR. INSERTED 20%
POPS FOR SAT NGT/SUNDAY AS PWATS REACH 1.7-2.0 INCHES AND A WEAK S/W
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  80  64  79  61  /  50  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          67  78  59  77  56  /  60  50  30  10  10
LAREDO            68  75  63  80  62  /  60  50  10  10  10
ALICE             69  78  61  80  59  /  40  40  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  81  65  78  63  /  50  50  30  10  10
COTULLA           67  75  61  79  57  /  40  40  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        71  79  63  80  60  /  40  50  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  80  66  78  66  /  50  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 020143
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
843 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH PWAT OF 1.4 INCHES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNSTABLE BUT
850-700MB TEMPS ARE A BIT WARM RESULTING IN A CAPPING INVERSION.
THE SEA BREEZE DID PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS JUST NE OF THE CWA WHERE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WERE LOCATED. CONVECTION
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE NEAR EAGLE PASS HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES E-SE. A SHORT WAVE IS APPROACHING S TX
TONIGHT AND MODELS PROG A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AM
EXPECTING THAT THE COLD FRONT MOVG THROUGH S TX WILL CONVERGE WITH
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SEA BREEZE TO PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT.  AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE
TO THE MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND UPPER SUPPORT...SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG. ONCE THE COOLER/DRIER NEAR SFC SHALLOW AIRMASS UNDERCUTS
THE STORMS...THEY SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY MORE
STRATIFORM. WILL HOLD OFF MAKING ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR BY MID TO LATE MON MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR POSSIBLE TSRA`S
TONIGHT/MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
AND NEAR THE STORMS. THERE ARE ISOLD WEAK SHRA`S CURRENTLY DVLPG
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WHICH IS DRAPED FROM NEAR PKV TO NEAR ALI.
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HRS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO CONVECTION CURRENTLY DVLPG S OF DRT WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SE THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS S TX. THE CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO
MONDAY...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

WEAK/STALLING COLD FRONT IS STILL DRAPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AT THIS HOUR. IT HAS MADE VERY LITTLE IF ANY MOVEMENT SOUTH TODAY
BUT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION HAS REALLY HELD FIRM TODAY AS
WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DROP FARTHER SOUTH. THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING EXIST.
THE STORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY BECOME STRONG...POSSIBLY
ISOLATED SEVERE...AND RELATIVELY ORGANIZED WITH BETTER BULK SHEAR
INDICES AS THEY MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH PROJECTED
PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES ANY OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE URBAN AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR REGION BY MONDAY LATE
MORNING/EARLY  AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BACK TOWARDS MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS UNDER
A STIFFER NORTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COOLER DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS WELL AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. SCEC CONDITIONS
SHOULD END BY NOON OVER THE GULF WATERS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUE NGT
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES PLUMETING INTO
THE 50S INLAND (MID 60S COAST). CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED-THU WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AND INCREASES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MEAN
RH`S PROGGED BELOW 30% OUT WEST FRI-SAT AND INCREASING WINDS...COULD
SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH ABOVE
NORMAL FUEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR. INSERTED 20%
POPS FOR SAT NGT/SUNDAY AS PWATS REACH 1.7-2.0 INCHES AND A WEAK S/W
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  80  64  79  61  /  50  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          67  78  59  77  56  /  60  50  30  10  10
LAREDO            68  75  63  80  62  /  60  50  10  10  10
ALICE             69  78  61  80  59  /  40  40  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  81  65  78  63  /  50  50  30  10  10
COTULLA           67  75  61  79  57  /  40  40  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        71  79  63  80  60  /  40  50  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  80  66  78  66  /  50  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 012329
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR BY MID TO LATE MON MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR POSSIBLE TSRA`S
TONIGHT/MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
AND NEAR THE STORMS. THERE ARE ISOLD WEAK SHRA`S CURRENTLY DVLPG
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WHICH IS DRAPED FROM NEAR PKV TO NEAR ALI.
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HRS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO CONVECTION CURRENTLY DVLPG S OF DRT WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SE THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS S TX. THE CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO
MONDAY...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

WEAK/STALLING COLD FRONT IS STILL DRAPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AT THIS HOUR. IT HAS MADE VERY LITTLE IF ANY MOVEMENT SOUTH TODAY
BUT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION HAS REALLY HELD FIRM TODAY AS
WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DROP FARTHER SOUTH. THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING EXIST.
THE STORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY BECOME STRONG...POSSIBLY
ISOLATED SEVERE...AND RELATIVELY ORGANIZED WITH BETTER BULK SHEAR
INDICES AS THEY MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH PROJECTED
PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES ANY OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE URBAN AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR REGION BY MONDAY LATE
MORNING/EARLY  AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BACK TOWARDS MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS UNDER
A STIFFER NORTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COOLER DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS WELL AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. SCEC CONDITIONS
SHOULD END BY NOON OVER THE GULF WATERS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUE NGT
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES PLUMETING INTO
THE 50S INLAND (MID 60S COAST). CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED-THU WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AND INCREASES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MEAN
RH`S PROGGED BELOW 30% OUT WEST FRI-SAT AND INCREASING WINDS...COULD
SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH ABOVE
NORMAL FUEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR. INSERTED 20%
POPS FOR SAT NGT/SUNDAY AS PWATS REACH 1.7-2.0 INCHES AND A WEAK S/W
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  80  64  79  61  /  50  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          67  78  59  77  56  /  60  50  30  10  10
LAREDO            68  75  63  80  62  /  60  50  10  10  10
ALICE             69  78  61  80  59  /  40  40  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  81  65  78  63  /  50  50  30  10  10
COTULLA           67  75  61  79  57  /  40  40  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        71  79  63  80  60  /  40  50  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  80  66  78  66  /  50  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 012329
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR BY MID TO LATE MON MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR POSSIBLE TSRA`S
TONIGHT/MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
AND NEAR THE STORMS. THERE ARE ISOLD WEAK SHRA`S CURRENTLY DVLPG
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WHICH IS DRAPED FROM NEAR PKV TO NEAR ALI.
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HRS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO CONVECTION CURRENTLY DVLPG S OF DRT WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SE THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS S TX. THE CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO
MONDAY...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

WEAK/STALLING COLD FRONT IS STILL DRAPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AT THIS HOUR. IT HAS MADE VERY LITTLE IF ANY MOVEMENT SOUTH TODAY
BUT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION HAS REALLY HELD FIRM TODAY AS
WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DROP FARTHER SOUTH. THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING EXIST.
THE STORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY BECOME STRONG...POSSIBLY
ISOLATED SEVERE...AND RELATIVELY ORGANIZED WITH BETTER BULK SHEAR
INDICES AS THEY MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH PROJECTED
PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES ANY OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE URBAN AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR REGION BY MONDAY LATE
MORNING/EARLY  AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BACK TOWARDS MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS UNDER
A STIFFER NORTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COOLER DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS WELL AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. SCEC CONDITIONS
SHOULD END BY NOON OVER THE GULF WATERS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUE NGT
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES PLUMETING INTO
THE 50S INLAND (MID 60S COAST). CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED-THU WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AND INCREASES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MEAN
RH`S PROGGED BELOW 30% OUT WEST FRI-SAT AND INCREASING WINDS...COULD
SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH ABOVE
NORMAL FUEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR. INSERTED 20%
POPS FOR SAT NGT/SUNDAY AS PWATS REACH 1.7-2.0 INCHES AND A WEAK S/W
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  80  64  79  61  /  50  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          67  78  59  77  56  /  60  50  30  10  10
LAREDO            68  75  63  80  62  /  60  50  10  10  10
ALICE             69  78  61  80  59  /  40  40  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  81  65  78  63  /  50  50  30  10  10
COTULLA           67  75  61  79  57  /  40  40  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        71  79  63  80  60  /  40  50  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  80  66  78  66  /  50  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 012033
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
333 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

WEAK/STALLING COLD FRONT IS STILL DRAPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AT THIS HOUR. IT HAS MADE VERY LITTLE IF ANY MOVEMENT SOUTH TODAY
BUT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION HAS REALLY HELD FIRM TODAY AS
WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DROP FARTHER SOUTH. THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING EXIST.
THE STORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY BECOME STRONG...POSSIBLY
ISOLATED SEVERE...AND RELATIVELY ORGANIZED WITH BETTER BULK SHEAR
INDICES AS THEY MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH PROJECTED
PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES ANY OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE URBAN AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR REGION BY MONDAY LATE
MORNING/EARLY  AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BACK TOWARDS MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS UNDER
A STIFFER NORTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COOLER DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS WELL AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. SCEC CONDITIONS
SHOULD END BY NOON OVER THE GULF WATERS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUE NGT
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES PLUMETING INTO
THE 50S INLAND (MID 60S COAST). CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED-THU WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AND INCREASES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MEAN
RH`S PROGGED BELOW 30% OUT WEST FRI-SAT AND INCREASING WINDS...COULD
SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH ABOVE
NORMAL FUEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR. INSERTED 20%
POPS FOR SAT NGT/SUNDAY AS PWATS REACH 1.7-2.0 INCHES AND A WEAK S/W
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  80  64  79  61  /  50  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          67  78  59  77  56  /  60  50  30  10  10
LAREDO            68  75  63  80  62  /  60  50  10  10  10
ALICE             69  78  61  80  59  /  40  40  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  81  65  78  63  /  50  50  30  10  10
COTULLA           67  75  61  79  57  /  40  40  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        71  79  63  80  60  /  40  50  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  80  66  78  66  /  50  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011809
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
109 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS STILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION...MOSTLY AROUND KVCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AROUND KVCT AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT
BISECTS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST ELSEWHERE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT - MONDAY...MOSTLY MVFR/IFR. COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS THE CIGS BACK DOWN. BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE TEMPO GROUPS...GREATEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
AROUND KLRD. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
KEEP AT LEAST MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CYCLE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. 12Z CRP
SOUNDING SHOWS A DECENT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 900MB
TOWARDS 850MB WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...WHAT IS THE FOCUS. WEAK
CONVERGENCE LINE NORTHEAST OF PORT ARANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE BETTER CAPPING WE HAVE IN PLACE...ALREADY SEEING
SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING AROUND THE BAY CITY AND WHARTON.

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...NEARLY STATIONARY...IS DRAPED ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR ACTIVITY
AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN GREAT INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIDES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE RADAR TRENDS TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA
IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE POLAR JET WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING TO THE OZARKS TONIGHT WHILE A
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.

VERY WEAK BOUNDARY HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. CAP WILL BE STRONG AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET
COULD LEAD TO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND
INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS
WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AREA TONIGHT. AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS DEPICT
STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING TOWARD
THE COAST WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD ABOVE THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT LOWERED POPS BACK TO 50 PERCENT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TIDES...TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN ABOUT A
FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP THE TIDE LEVELS FROM REACHING
THE 2 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL CRITERIA AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SWELLS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SWELLS DIMINISH AND
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SO EXPECT RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL FALL TO MODERATE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY A STORM
OR TWO WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER
AIR WINS OUT.  SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MODEST CAA PERSISTS.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
A BIT AS AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE COOL AND MODELS LIKELY DON`T HV A GOOD
HANDLE.

ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BECAUSE IT
WILL NOT HANG AROUND LONG.  DEEP RIDGING ENSUES LATE IN THE WEEK
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.  COULD
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FRI OR SAT...ESPLY CLOSE TO THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CVRG EXPECTED TO CARRY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  79  65  78  62  /  40  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          70  77  61  77  57  /  50  50  30  10  10
LAREDO            71  76  64  79  62  /  50  50  20  10  10
ALICE             72  77  62  79  59  /  40  50  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          74  78  66  77  64  /  50  50  30  10  10
COTULLA           68  74  62  80  58  /  50  40  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        73  79  64  79  60  /  30  50  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       75  79  67  78  66  /  40  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011809
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
109 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS STILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION...MOSTLY AROUND KVCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AROUND KVCT AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT
BISECTS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST ELSEWHERE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT - MONDAY...MOSTLY MVFR/IFR. COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS THE CIGS BACK DOWN. BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE TEMPO GROUPS...GREATEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
AROUND KLRD. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
KEEP AT LEAST MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CYCLE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. 12Z CRP
SOUNDING SHOWS A DECENT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 900MB
TOWARDS 850MB WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...WHAT IS THE FOCUS. WEAK
CONVERGENCE LINE NORTHEAST OF PORT ARANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE BETTER CAPPING WE HAVE IN PLACE...ALREADY SEEING
SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING AROUND THE BAY CITY AND WHARTON.

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...NEARLY STATIONARY...IS DRAPED ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR ACTIVITY
AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN GREAT INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIDES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE RADAR TRENDS TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA
IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE POLAR JET WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING TO THE OZARKS TONIGHT WHILE A
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.

VERY WEAK BOUNDARY HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. CAP WILL BE STRONG AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET
COULD LEAD TO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND
INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS
WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AREA TONIGHT. AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS DEPICT
STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING TOWARD
THE COAST WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD ABOVE THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT LOWERED POPS BACK TO 50 PERCENT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TIDES...TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN ABOUT A
FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP THE TIDE LEVELS FROM REACHING
THE 2 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL CRITERIA AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SWELLS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SWELLS DIMINISH AND
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SO EXPECT RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL FALL TO MODERATE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY A STORM
OR TWO WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER
AIR WINS OUT.  SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MODEST CAA PERSISTS.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
A BIT AS AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE COOL AND MODELS LIKELY DON`T HV A GOOD
HANDLE.

ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BECAUSE IT
WILL NOT HANG AROUND LONG.  DEEP RIDGING ENSUES LATE IN THE WEEK
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.  COULD
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FRI OR SAT...ESPLY CLOSE TO THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CVRG EXPECTED TO CARRY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  79  65  78  62  /  40  50  30  10  10
VICTORIA          70  77  61  77  57  /  50  50  30  10  10
LAREDO            71  76  64  79  62  /  50  50  20  10  10
ALICE             72  77  62  79  59  /  40  50  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          74  78  66  77  64  /  50  50  30  10  10
COTULLA           68  74  62  80  58  /  50  40  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        73  79  64  79  60  /  30  50  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       75  79  67  78  66  /  40  50  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011619
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1119 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. 12Z CRP
SOUNDING SHOWS A DECENT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 900MB
TOWARDS 850MB WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...WHAT IS THE FOCUS. WEAK
CONVERGENCE LINE NORTHEAST OF PORT ARANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE BETTER CAPPING WE HAVE IN PLACE...ALREADY SEEING
SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING AROUND THE BAY CITY AND WHARTON.

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...NEARLY STATIONARY...IS DRAPED ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR ACTIVITY
AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN GREAT INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIDES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE RADAR TRENDS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA
IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE POLAR JET WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING TO THE OZARKS TONIGHT WHILE A
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.

VERY WEAK BOUNDARY HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. CAP WILL BE STRONG AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET
COULD LEAD TO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND
INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS
WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AREA TONIGHT. AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS DEPICT
STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING TOWARD
THE COAST WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD ABOVE THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT LOWERED POPS BACK TO 50 PERCENT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TIDES...TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN ABOUT A
FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP THE TIDE LEVELS FROM REACHING
THE 2 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL CRITERIA AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SWELLS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SWELLS DIMINISH AND
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SO EXPECT RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL FALL TO MODERATE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY A STORM
OR TWO WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER
AIR WINS OUT.  SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MODEST CAA PERSISTS.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
A BIT AS AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE COOL AND MODELS LIKELY DON`T HV A GOOD
HANDLE.

ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BECAUSE IT
WILL NOT HANG AROUND LONG.  DEEP RIDGING ENSUES LATE IN THE WEEK
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.  COULD
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FRI OR SAT...ESPLY CLOSE TO THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CVRG EXPECTED TO CARRY MENTION AT THIS TIME.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  73  79  65  78  /  20  40  50  30  10
VICTORIA          86  70  77  61  77  /  40  50  50  30  10
LAREDO            94  71  76  64  79  /  10  50  50  20  10
ALICE             90  72  77  62  79  /  20  40  50  30  10
ROCKPORT          86  74  78  66  77  /  20  50  50  30  10
COTULLA           88  68  74  62  80  /  20  50  40  10  10
KINGSVILLE        90  73  79  64  79  /  20  30  50  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       87  75  79  67  78  /  10  40  50  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011619
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1119 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. 12Z CRP
SOUNDING SHOWS A DECENT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 900MB
TOWARDS 850MB WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...WHAT IS THE FOCUS. WEAK
CONVERGENCE LINE NORTHEAST OF PORT ARANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE BETTER CAPPING WE HAVE IN PLACE...ALREADY SEEING
SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING AROUND THE BAY CITY AND WHARTON.

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...NEARLY STATIONARY...IS DRAPED ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR ACTIVITY
AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN GREAT INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIDES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE RADAR TRENDS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA
IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE POLAR JET WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING TO THE OZARKS TONIGHT WHILE A
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.

VERY WEAK BOUNDARY HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. CAP WILL BE STRONG AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET
COULD LEAD TO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND
INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS
WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AREA TONIGHT. AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS DEPICT
STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING TOWARD
THE COAST WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD ABOVE THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT LOWERED POPS BACK TO 50 PERCENT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TIDES...TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN ABOUT A
FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP THE TIDE LEVELS FROM REACHING
THE 2 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL CRITERIA AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SWELLS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SWELLS DIMINISH AND
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SO EXPECT RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL FALL TO MODERATE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY A STORM
OR TWO WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER
AIR WINS OUT.  SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MODEST CAA PERSISTS.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
A BIT AS AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE COOL AND MODELS LIKELY DON`T HV A GOOD
HANDLE.

ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BECAUSE IT
WILL NOT HANG AROUND LONG.  DEEP RIDGING ENSUES LATE IN THE WEEK
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.  COULD
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FRI OR SAT...ESPLY CLOSE TO THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CVRG EXPECTED TO CARRY MENTION AT THIS TIME.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  73  79  65  78  /  20  40  50  30  10
VICTORIA          86  70  77  61  77  /  40  50  50  30  10
LAREDO            94  71  76  64  79  /  10  50  50  20  10
ALICE             90  72  77  62  79  /  20  40  50  30  10
ROCKPORT          86  74  78  66  77  /  20  50  50  30  10
COTULLA           88  68  74  62  80  /  20  50  40  10  10
KINGSVILLE        90  73  79  64  79  /  20  30  50  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       87  75  79  67  78  /  10  40  50  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011138 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND IFR CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS ALSO AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
15Z. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FROM 15-19Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS HOLDING EVEN INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT OVER
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE BRUSH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TOWARD LRD BETWEEN 02-06Z WITH SCATTERED
STORMS REACHING THE COASTAL SITES OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG/HAZE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL SITES IN THE EVENING.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA
IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE POLAR JET WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING TO THE OZARKS TONIGHT WHILE A
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.

VERY WEAK BOUNDARY HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. CAP WILL BE STRONG AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET
COULD LEAD TO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND
INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS
WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AREA TONIGHT. AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS DEPICT
STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING TOWARD
THE COAST WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD ABOVE THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT LOWERED POPS BACK TO 50 PERCENT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TIDES...TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN ABOUT A
FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP THE TIDE LEVELS FROM REACHING
THE 2 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL CRITERIA AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SWELLS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SWELLS DIMINISH AND
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SO EXPECT RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL FALL TO MODERATE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY A STORM
OR TWO WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER
AIR WINS OUT.  SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MODEST CAA PERSISTS.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
A BIT AS AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE COOL AND MODELS LIKELY DON`T HV A GOOD
HANDLE.

ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BECAUSE IT
WILL NOT HANG AROUND LONG.  DEEP RIDGING ENSUES LATE IN THE WEEK
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.  COULD
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FRI OR SAT...ESPLY CLOSE TO THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CVRG EXPECTED TO CARRY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  73  79  65  78  /  20  40  50  30  10
VICTORIA          86  70  77  61  77  /  30  50  50  30  10
LAREDO            94  71  76  64  79  /  10  50  50  20  10
ALICE             90  72  77  62  79  /  20  40  50  30  10
ROCKPORT          86  74  78  66  77  /  20  50  50  30  10
COTULLA           88  68  74  62  80  /  20  50  40  10  10
KINGSVILLE        90  73  79  64  79  /  20  30  50  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       87  75  79  67  78  /  10  40  50  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011138 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND IFR CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS ALSO AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
15Z. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FROM 15-19Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS HOLDING EVEN INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT OVER
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE BRUSH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TOWARD LRD BETWEEN 02-06Z WITH SCATTERED
STORMS REACHING THE COASTAL SITES OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG/HAZE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL SITES IN THE EVENING.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA
IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE POLAR JET WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING TO THE OZARKS TONIGHT WHILE A
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.

VERY WEAK BOUNDARY HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. CAP WILL BE STRONG AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET
COULD LEAD TO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND
INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS
WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AREA TONIGHT. AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS DEPICT
STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING TOWARD
THE COAST WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD ABOVE THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT LOWERED POPS BACK TO 50 PERCENT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TIDES...TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN ABOUT A
FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP THE TIDE LEVELS FROM REACHING
THE 2 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL CRITERIA AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SWELLS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SWELLS DIMINISH AND
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SO EXPECT RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL FALL TO MODERATE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY A STORM
OR TWO WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER
AIR WINS OUT.  SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MODEST CAA PERSISTS.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
A BIT AS AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE COOL AND MODELS LIKELY DON`T HV A GOOD
HANDLE.

ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BECAUSE IT
WILL NOT HANG AROUND LONG.  DEEP RIDGING ENSUES LATE IN THE WEEK
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.  COULD
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FRI OR SAT...ESPLY CLOSE TO THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CVRG EXPECTED TO CARRY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  73  79  65  78  /  20  40  50  30  10
VICTORIA          86  70  77  61  77  /  30  50  50  30  10
LAREDO            94  71  76  64  79  /  10  50  50  20  10
ALICE             90  72  77  62  79  /  20  40  50  30  10
ROCKPORT          86  74  78  66  77  /  20  50  50  30  10
COTULLA           88  68  74  62  80  /  20  50  40  10  10
KINGSVILLE        90  73  79  64  79  /  20  30  50  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       87  75  79  67  78  /  10  40  50  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010851
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
351 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA
IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE POLAR JET WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING TO THE OZARKS TONIGHT WHILE A
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.

VERY WEAK BOUNDARY HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. CAP WILL BE STRONG AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET
COULD LEAD TO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND
INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS
WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AREA TONIGHT. AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS DEPICT
STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING TOWARD
THE COAST WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD ABOVE THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT LOWERED POPS BACK TO 50 PERCENT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.TIDES...TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN ABOUT A
FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP THE TIDE LEVELS FROM REACHING
THE 2 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL CRITERIA AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SWELLS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SWELLS DIMINISH AND
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SO EXPECT RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL FALL TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY A STORM
OR TWO WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER
AIR WINS OUT.  SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MODEST CAA PERSISTS.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
A BIT AS AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE COOL AND MODELS LIKELY DON`T HV A GOOD
HANDLE.

ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BECAUSE IT
WILL NOT HANG AROUND LONG.  DEEP RIDGING ENSUES LATE IN THE WEEK
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.  COULD
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FRI OR SAT...ESPLY CLOSE TO THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CVRG EXPECTED TO CARRY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  73  79  65  78  /  20  40  50  30  10
VICTORIA          86  70  77  61  77  /  30  50  50  30  10
LAREDO            94  71  76  64  79  /  10  50  50  20  10
ALICE             90  72  77  62  79  /  20  40  50  30  10
ROCKPORT          86  74  78  66  77  /  20  50  50  30  10
COTULLA           88  68  74  62  80  /  20  50  40  10  10
KINGSVILLE        90  73  79  64  79  /  20  30  50  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       87  75  79  67  78  /  10  40  50  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010544 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1244 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH IFR CEILINGS NOTED OVER THE GULF. FOG HAS FORMED
OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS WITH IFR VSBYS ALREADY IN PLACE.
EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW AND REACH LRD AROUND 09Z. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BY 08Z FOR ALI/VCT ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS THROUGH 13Z.
MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES BY DAYBREAK AND COULD SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR
BUT FOG/HAZE WILL LIMIT VSBYS TO MVFR. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY T-STORMS AT VCT. BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE BRUSH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TOWARD LRD BETWEEN 02-06Z. MVFR CIGS WITH
MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL SITES IN THE EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  81  65  78  61  /  40  60  40  20  10
VICTORIA          69  77  61  77  56  /  50  60  40  10  10
LAREDO            72  79  64  79  61  /  40  60  20  10  10
ALICE             72  80  62  79  58  /  30  60  40  10  10
ROCKPORT          73  79  66  77  63  /  50  60  40  10  10
COTULLA           67  75  62  80  57  /  50  50  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        74  81  64  79  59  /  30  60  40  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       75  80  67  78  65  /  40  60  40  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010028
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
728 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS. PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED MID
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PREDOMINATE VFR DRG THE
AFTN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... MAIN ISSUE IN THE
SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. VIS SATELLITE REVEALS A SHARP SFC BOUNDARY WITH MODERATE
CU DRAPED FROM ROBSTOWN TO VICTORIA...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NW.
BEST INSTABILITY AND SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS OVER VICTORIA
WHERE SEVERAL WEAK CELLSHAVE FORMED AND DISSIPATED IN THE PAST
HOUR. LAPS SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO
BEING MET WITH CAPES AROUND 4000J/KG. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MENTION AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR STORM MAY
BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT PATCHYFOG AND STRATUS TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVES INTO
S TX FROM NE MEXICO. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN CHC POPS SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NRN CWA. THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN THE HAZY CONDITONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FROPA MONDAY.

COASTAL FLOOD UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DUE
TO A WEAKING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...TIDES STILL PEAKED ABOUT 1 1/4
FT ABOVE NORMAL AROUND NOON TODAY (2.25FT MSL) ON THE GULF SIDE
NEAR PORT ARANSAS. TIDES ARE SIMILARLY HIGH ON THE INLAND BAY
SIDE...AND WILL BE SLOW TO FALL IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP POOLING OF
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG
WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD WILL AID IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN COLD SECTOR BEHIND FRONT...AND
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH OMEGA PATTERN
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK.  A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY MODIFY LATE IN THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  87  73  81  65  /  10  30  40  60  40
VICTORIA          72  85  69  77  61  /  10  30  50  60  40
LAREDO            74  94  72  79  64  /  10  20  40  60  20
ALICE             74  89  72  80  62  /  10  30  30  60  40
ROCKPORT          76  87  73  79  66  /  10  30  50  60  40
COTULLA           72  89  67  75  62  /  10  20  50  50  20
KINGSVILLE        75  88  74  81  64  /  10  20  30  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       77  85  75  80  67  /  10  20  40  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010028
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
728 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS. PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED MID
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PREDOMINATE VFR DRG THE
AFTN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... MAIN ISSUE IN THE
SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. VIS SATELLITE REVEALS A SHARP SFC BOUNDARY WITH MODERATE
CU DRAPED FROM ROBSTOWN TO VICTORIA...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NW.
BEST INSTABILITY AND SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS OVER VICTORIA
WHERE SEVERAL WEAK CELLSHAVE FORMED AND DISSIPATED IN THE PAST
HOUR. LAPS SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO
BEING MET WITH CAPES AROUND 4000J/KG. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MENTION AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR STORM MAY
BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT PATCHYFOG AND STRATUS TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVES INTO
S TX FROM NE MEXICO. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN CHC POPS SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NRN CWA. THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN THE HAZY CONDITONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FROPA MONDAY.

COASTAL FLOOD UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DUE
TO A WEAKING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...TIDES STILL PEAKED ABOUT 1 1/4
FT ABOVE NORMAL AROUND NOON TODAY (2.25FT MSL) ON THE GULF SIDE
NEAR PORT ARANSAS. TIDES ARE SIMILARLY HIGH ON THE INLAND BAY
SIDE...AND WILL BE SLOW TO FALL IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP POOLING OF
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG
WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD WILL AID IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN COLD SECTOR BEHIND FRONT...AND
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH OMEGA PATTERN
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK.  A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY MODIFY LATE IN THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  87  73  81  65  /  10  30  40  60  40
VICTORIA          72  85  69  77  61  /  10  30  50  60  40
LAREDO            74  94  72  79  64  /  10  20  40  60  20
ALICE             74  89  72  80  62  /  10  30  30  60  40
ROCKPORT          76  87  73  79  66  /  10  30  50  60  40
COTULLA           72  89  67  75  62  /  10  20  50  50  20
KINGSVILLE        75  88  74  81  64  /  10  20  30  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       77  85  75  80  67  /  10  20  40  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 302002
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
302 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... MAIN ISSUE IN THE
SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. VIS SATELLITE REVEALS A SHARP SFC BOUNDARY WITH MODERATE
CU DRAPED FROM ROBSTOWN TO VICTORIA...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NW.
BEST INSTABILITY AND SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS OVER VICTORIA
WHERE SEVERAL WEAK CELLSHAVE FORMED AND DISSIPATED IN THE PAST
HOUR. LAPS SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO
BEING MET WITH CAPES AROUND 4000J/KG. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MENTION AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR STORM MAY
BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT PATCHYFOG AND STRATUS TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVES INTO
S TX FROM NE MEXICO. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN CHC POPS SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NRN CWA. THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN THE HAZY CONDITONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FROPA MONDAY.

COASTAL FLOOD UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DUE
TO A WEAKING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...TIDES STILL PEAKED ABOUT 1 1/4
FT ABOVE NORMAL AROUND NOON TODAY (2.25FT MSL) ON THE GULF SIDE
NEAR PORT ARANSAS. TIDES ARE SIMILARLY HIGH ON THE INLAND BAY
SIDE...AND WILL BE SLOW TO FALL IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP POOLING OF
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG
WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD WILL AID IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN COLD SECTOR BEHIND FRONT...AND
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH OMEGA PATTERN
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK.  A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY MODIFY LATE IN THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  87  73  81  65  /  10  30  40  60  40
VICTORIA          72  85  69  77  61  /  10  30  50  60  40
LAREDO            74  94  72  79  64  /  10  20  40  60  20
ALICE             74  89  72  80  62  /  10  30  30  60  40
ROCKPORT          76  87  73  79  66  /  10  30  50  60  40
COTULLA           72  89  67  75  62  /  10  20  50  50  20
KINGSVILLE        75  88  74  81  64  /  10  20  30  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       77  85  75  80  67  /  10  20  40  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 301751
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1251 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST POP/TEMPERATURE/WIND
TRENDS. ALSO SEE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM
NEAR TAFT TO VICTORIA...AND COULD NOSE INTO BEEVILLE BY LATE AFTN.
BEST INSTABILITY IS OVER VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES ATTM. WILL
MAINTAIN VICINITY THUNDER FOR THE VCT TERMINAL FROM 21-00Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PACHY FOG AND MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW REFORMS OVERNIGHT BENEITH A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WAS LIMITING CONVECTION
OVER SOUTH TX AND THUS ONLY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS
OBSERVED MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE COASTAL COUNTIES ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE
THIS AFTN. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR AND LESS HAZE. GIVEN
THE SWLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO HEAT
UP REACHING THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NE COASTAL BEND AND UPPER 90S
OUT WEST. STILL THINK THE SEA BREEZE COULD FORM AND MOVE INLAND
LATE THIS AFTN AND TRIGGER A FEW STORMS IF CONVECTIVE TEMPS CAN
BE REACHED. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY A STRONG/PULSE SVR
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RETURN OF SE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
THE HAZE BACK TO THE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. THE ZONES HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO RELFECT THE LATEST THINKING.

COASTAL FLOOD UPDATE - ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
TODAY...TIDE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (ABOUT 1 1/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL).
NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT 1231 PM THIS AFTN AT PORT ARANSAS.
THIS COULD CAUSE WATER TO REACH THE DUNES IN MANY AREAS OF THE MID
COAST.

MARINE...WILL ALLOW THE SCA`S TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. WINDS ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING AND
SHOULD DROP BELOW 7 FEET LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  87  74  82  66  /  10  20  40  70  40
VICTORIA          73  87  70  76  63  /  10  30  50  60  40
LAREDO            75  94  72  79  64  /  10  20  30  70  20
ALICE             75  89  72  80  64  /  10  20  40  70  40
ROCKPORT          76  88  75  80  67  /  10  20  50  70  40
COTULLA           71  89  68  74  62  /  10  30  40  50  10
KINGSVILLE        76  89  74  83  65  /  10  20  30  70  40
NAVY CORPUS       77  86  75  80  69  /  10  20  30  70  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 301422
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
922 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WAS LIMITING CONVECTION
OVER SOUTH TX AND THUS ONLY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS
OBSERVED MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE COASTAL COUNTIES ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE
THIS AFTN. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR AND LESS HAZE. GIVEN
THE SWLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO HEAT
UP REACHING THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NE COASTAL BEND AND UPPER 90S
OUT WEST. STILL THINK THE SEA BREEZE COULD FORM AND MOVE INLAND
LATE THIS AFTN AND TRIGGER A FEW STORMS IF CONVECTIVE TEMPS CAN
BE REACHED. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY A STRONG/PULSE SVR
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RETURN OF SE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
THE HAZE BACK TO THE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. THE ZONES HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO RELFECT THE LATEST THINKING.

COASTAL FLOOD UPDATE - ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
TODAY...TIDE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (ABOUT 1 1/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL).
NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT 1231 PM THIS AFTN AT PORT ARANSAS.
THIS COULD CAUSE WATER TO REACH THE DUNES IN MANY AREAS OF THE MID
COAST.

.MARINE...WILL ALLOW THE SCA`S TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. WINDS ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING AND
SHOULD DROP BELOW 7 FEET LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  76  87  74  82  /  30  10  20  40  70
VICTORIA          88  73  87  70  76  /  30  10  30  50  60
LAREDO            98  75  94  72  79  /  20  10  20  30  70
ALICE             93  75  89  72  80  /  30  10  20  40  70
ROCKPORT          89  76  88  75  80  /  20  10  20  50  70
COTULLA           95  71  89  68  74  /  10  10  30  40  50
KINGSVILLE        93  76  89  74  83  /  30  10  20  30  70
NAVY CORPUS       88  77  86  75  80  /  20  10  20  30  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 301122 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED T-STORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS EARLY THIS MORNING.
BUT ACTIVITY HAS WEAKEND AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF STRONGER
CAP OVER SOUTH TEXAS. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG CONTINUE OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE VFR CONDITIONS EXIST AT COTULLA. EXPECT
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR THROUGH 14-18Z. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS COULD
FORM OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS. MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAINS BY 03Z SUNDAY AND LOWER TO IFR
BY 08-09Z WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. MVFR CIGS WILL REACH LRD
AROUND 09Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF A SAN ANTONIO
TO EAGLE PASS LINE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD
TOGETHER WHILE IT MOVES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. MODELS DEPICT
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE LIMITING FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE CAP AND SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING FOR THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTH TEXAS LIKELY IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON
HOW STRONG THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SREF
AND HI-RES ARW SHOWING WEAK VALUES WHILE THE NAM/GFS SHOW STRONG
INSTABILITY. IF STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE THE CAP WILL
REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR...THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW HAS DIMINISHED BUT THE SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CANCELED THE SCA FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

TIDES...TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AGAIN
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TIDE LEVELS COULD REACH 2.25 FEET MSL AT BOB HALL PIER. CONTINUED
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING. SWELLS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF 8 SECONDS.
EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...SFC FRONT IS PROG TO BE
JUST NORTH OF THE SUNDAY EVENING WITH ESERLY LLVL FLOW SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY  ALLOWING FOR POOLING OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MOST
OF THE EVENING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH BOUNDARY
BEING TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE NIGHT THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AS MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SW CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. AS SUCH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT. GIVEN DENSITY OF AIRMASS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
/AND ALSO AIDED BY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY/...THE
FRONT IS NOW PROG TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AS STRONG SURFACE FORCING QUICKLY OVERCOMES A
WEAKENING EML. DESPITE FRONT BEING SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MIDDAY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE COLD
SECTOR DUE TO A STRONG H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS POST FROPA AIRMASS GIVEN CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG ALOFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING
IN VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR EARLY MAY. MOISTURE RETURN AND
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  76  87  74  82  /  30  10  20  40  70
VICTORIA          88  73  87  70  76  /  40  10  30  50  60
LAREDO            98  75  94  72  79  /  20  10  20  30  70
ALICE             93  75  89  72  80  /  30  10  20  40  70
ROCKPORT          89  76  88  75  80  /  40  10  20  50  70
COTULLA           95  71  89  68  74  /  20  10  30  40  50
KINGSVILLE        93  76  89  74  83  /  30  10  20  30  70
NAVY CORPUS       88  77  86  75  80  /  30  10  20  30  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 301122 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED T-STORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS EARLY THIS MORNING.
BUT ACTIVITY HAS WEAKEND AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF STRONGER
CAP OVER SOUTH TEXAS. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG CONTINUE OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE VFR CONDITIONS EXIST AT COTULLA. EXPECT
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR THROUGH 14-18Z. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS COULD
FORM OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS. MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAINS BY 03Z SUNDAY AND LOWER TO IFR
BY 08-09Z WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. MVFR CIGS WILL REACH LRD
AROUND 09Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF A SAN ANTONIO
TO EAGLE PASS LINE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD
TOGETHER WHILE IT MOVES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. MODELS DEPICT
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE LIMITING FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE CAP AND SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING FOR THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTH TEXAS LIKELY IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON
HOW STRONG THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SREF
AND HI-RES ARW SHOWING WEAK VALUES WHILE THE NAM/GFS SHOW STRONG
INSTABILITY. IF STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE THE CAP WILL
REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR...THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW HAS DIMINISHED BUT THE SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CANCELED THE SCA FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

TIDES...TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AGAIN
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TIDE LEVELS COULD REACH 2.25 FEET MSL AT BOB HALL PIER. CONTINUED
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING. SWELLS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF 8 SECONDS.
EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...SFC FRONT IS PROG TO BE
JUST NORTH OF THE SUNDAY EVENING WITH ESERLY LLVL FLOW SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY  ALLOWING FOR POOLING OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MOST
OF THE EVENING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH BOUNDARY
BEING TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE NIGHT THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AS MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SW CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. AS SUCH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT. GIVEN DENSITY OF AIRMASS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
/AND ALSO AIDED BY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY/...THE
FRONT IS NOW PROG TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AS STRONG SURFACE FORCING QUICKLY OVERCOMES A
WEAKENING EML. DESPITE FRONT BEING SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MIDDAY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE COLD
SECTOR DUE TO A STRONG H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS POST FROPA AIRMASS GIVEN CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG ALOFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING
IN VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR EARLY MAY. MOISTURE RETURN AND
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  76  87  74  82  /  30  10  20  40  70
VICTORIA          88  73  87  70  76  /  40  10  30  50  60
LAREDO            98  75  94  72  79  /  20  10  20  30  70
ALICE             93  75  89  72  80  /  30  10  20  40  70
ROCKPORT          89  76  88  75  80  /  40  10  20  50  70
COTULLA           95  71  89  68  74  /  20  10  30  40  50
KINGSVILLE        93  76  89  74  83  /  30  10  20  30  70
NAVY CORPUS       88  77  86  75  80  /  30  10  20  30  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





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