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000
FXUS64 KCRP 251142 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
642 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS AFTER 14Z...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALI (AND OCCURRING...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE)...AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KALI. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING
(MAINLY SOUTH) BECOME SOUTHEAST WITH SEA-BREEZE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THERMAL LOW...SO WINDS WILL BE
UP WITH MAYBE A FEW GUSTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO PRECLUDE FOG AFTER 26/06Z (SO NONE MENTIONED). FINALLY...HAVE
VCTS AT KALI AND KCRP...AND THINK CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH NOT TO USE A TEMPO AT THIS TIME (TOO EARLY FOR PROB30).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND SOME OF THIS WILL GET
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS. DO NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE IT MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH AS FLOW ALONG RIDGE WILL NOT ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN.
WINDS RATHER LIGHT AGAIN TODAY AND WITH PWATS JUST BELOW 2 INCHES...
WILL SEE SOME AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
INLAND AREAS...SOME OF WHICH COULD EVEN GET INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AND MORE WIND ON SATURDAY...AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. MAY SEE A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM OR TWO BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE OF MUCH CONSEQUENCE AND LIKELY VERY SHORT-LIVED (THUS NO
RAINFALL MENTIONED). CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...AM GOING ABOUT A
DEGREE WARMER EACH DAY BASED ON 2 METER AND 850 METER TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOUT THE SAME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO GET TO AT OR
ABOVE 105F FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL BEND AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS TODAY...AND POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY. WILL WRITE SPS FOR HIGH HEAT INDICES TODAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY WITH LESS
COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SURFACE FORCING THIS MORNING BUT
ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT VERY DEEP TO WARRANT A LOT OF SHOWERS. THUS WILL
KEEP THE LOW-END/ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING BUT WILL REMOVE THUNDER.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TODAY INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS
GETTING TO SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT SOME NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS. SEEING PERIODS OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE MORNINGS...SO THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW
STREAMER SHOWERS AT LEAST SUN/MON MORNINGS...BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH A
10 POP...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OUT OF IT. BY MID WEEK...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL WED INTO
THURSDAY...BUT LOOKS TO GET A REINFORCING PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT TO
FRIDAY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE THE WIND SHIFT GETTING INTO AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. ECMWF A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AS FAR SOUTH AS CORPUS.  HAVE 20 POPS INTO
NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY
CHANGE...MAINLY HOT DAYS AND WARM NIGHTS...NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL.
THINK THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH FRONT APPROACHING AND
MORE CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  77  98  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          96  76  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           103  80 104  79 103  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  76 102  76  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  79  93  81  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          100  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  77 100  77  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  80  93  81  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 251142 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
642 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS AFTER 14Z...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALI (AND OCCURRING...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE)...AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KALI. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING
(MAINLY SOUTH) BECOME SOUTHEAST WITH SEA-BREEZE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THERMAL LOW...SO WINDS WILL BE
UP WITH MAYBE A FEW GUSTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO PRECLUDE FOG AFTER 26/06Z (SO NONE MENTIONED). FINALLY...HAVE
VCTS AT KALI AND KCRP...AND THINK CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH NOT TO USE A TEMPO AT THIS TIME (TOO EARLY FOR PROB30).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND SOME OF THIS WILL GET
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS. DO NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE IT MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH AS FLOW ALONG RIDGE WILL NOT ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN.
WINDS RATHER LIGHT AGAIN TODAY AND WITH PWATS JUST BELOW 2 INCHES...
WILL SEE SOME AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
INLAND AREAS...SOME OF WHICH COULD EVEN GET INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AND MORE WIND ON SATURDAY...AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. MAY SEE A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM OR TWO BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE OF MUCH CONSEQUENCE AND LIKELY VERY SHORT-LIVED (THUS NO
RAINFALL MENTIONED). CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...AM GOING ABOUT A
DEGREE WARMER EACH DAY BASED ON 2 METER AND 850 METER TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOUT THE SAME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO GET TO AT OR
ABOVE 105F FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL BEND AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS TODAY...AND POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY. WILL WRITE SPS FOR HIGH HEAT INDICES TODAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY WITH LESS
COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SURFACE FORCING THIS MORNING BUT
ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT VERY DEEP TO WARRANT A LOT OF SHOWERS. THUS WILL
KEEP THE LOW-END/ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING BUT WILL REMOVE THUNDER.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TODAY INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS
GETTING TO SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT SOME NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS. SEEING PERIODS OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE MORNINGS...SO THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW
STREAMER SHOWERS AT LEAST SUN/MON MORNINGS...BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH A
10 POP...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OUT OF IT. BY MID WEEK...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL WED INTO
THURSDAY...BUT LOOKS TO GET A REINFORCING PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT TO
FRIDAY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE THE WIND SHIFT GETTING INTO AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. ECMWF A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AS FAR SOUTH AS CORPUS.  HAVE 20 POPS INTO
NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY
CHANGE...MAINLY HOT DAYS AND WARM NIGHTS...NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL.
THINK THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH FRONT APPROACHING AND
MORE CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  77  98  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          96  76  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           103  80 104  79 103  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  76 102  76  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  79  93  81  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          100  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  77 100  77  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  80  93  81  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 250841
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND SOME OF THIS WILL GET
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS. DO NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE IT MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH AS FLOW ALONG RIDGE WILL NOT ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN.
WINDS RATHER LIGHT AGAIN TODAY AND WITH PWATS JUST BELOW 2 INCHES...
WILL SEE SOME AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
INLAND AREAS...SOME OF WHICH COULD EVEN GET INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AND MORE WIND ON SATURDAY...AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. MAY SEE A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM OR TWO BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE OF MUCH CONSEQUENCE AND LIKELY VERY SHORT-LIVED (THUS NO
RAINFALL MENTIONED). CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...AM GOING ABOUT A
DEGREE WARMER EACH DAY BASED ON 2 METER AND 850 METER TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOUT THE SAME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO GET TO AT OR
ABOVE 105F FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL BEND AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS TODAY...AND POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY. WILL WRITE SPS FOR HIGH HEAT INDICES TODAY.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY WITH LESS
COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SURFACE FORCING THIS MORNING BUT
ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT VERY DEEP TO WARRANT A LOT OF SHOWERS. THUS WILL
KEEP THE LOW-END/ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING BUT WILL REMOVE THUNDER.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TODAY INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS
GETTING TO SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT SOME NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS. SEEING PERIODS OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE MORNINGS...SO THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW
STREAMER SHOWERS AT LEAST SUN/MON MORNINGS...BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH A
10 POP...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OUT OF IT. BY MID WEEK...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL WED INTO
THURSDAY...BUT LOOKS TO GET A REINFORCING PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT TO
FRIDAY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE THE WIND SHIFT GETTING INTO AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. ECMWF A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AS FAR SOUTH AS CORPUS.  HAVE 20 POPS INTO
NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY
CHANGE...MAINLY HOT DAYS AND WARM NIGHTS...NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL.
THINK THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH FRONT APPROACHING AND
MORE CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  77  98  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          96  76  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           103  80 104  79 103  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  76 102  76  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  79  93  81  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          100  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  77 100  77  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  80  93  81  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 250841
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND SOME OF THIS WILL GET
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS. DO NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE IT MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH AS FLOW ALONG RIDGE WILL NOT ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN.
WINDS RATHER LIGHT AGAIN TODAY AND WITH PWATS JUST BELOW 2 INCHES...
WILL SEE SOME AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
INLAND AREAS...SOME OF WHICH COULD EVEN GET INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AND MORE WIND ON SATURDAY...AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. MAY SEE A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM OR TWO BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE OF MUCH CONSEQUENCE AND LIKELY VERY SHORT-LIVED (THUS NO
RAINFALL MENTIONED). CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...AM GOING ABOUT A
DEGREE WARMER EACH DAY BASED ON 2 METER AND 850 METER TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOUT THE SAME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO GET TO AT OR
ABOVE 105F FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL BEND AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS TODAY...AND POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY. WILL WRITE SPS FOR HIGH HEAT INDICES TODAY.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY WITH LESS
COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SURFACE FORCING THIS MORNING BUT
ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT VERY DEEP TO WARRANT A LOT OF SHOWERS. THUS WILL
KEEP THE LOW-END/ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING BUT WILL REMOVE THUNDER.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TODAY INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS
GETTING TO SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT SOME NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS. SEEING PERIODS OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE MORNINGS...SO THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW
STREAMER SHOWERS AT LEAST SUN/MON MORNINGS...BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH A
10 POP...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OUT OF IT. BY MID WEEK...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL WED INTO
THURSDAY...BUT LOOKS TO GET A REINFORCING PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT TO
FRIDAY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE THE WIND SHIFT GETTING INTO AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. ECMWF A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AS FAR SOUTH AS CORPUS.  HAVE 20 POPS INTO
NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY
CHANGE...MAINLY HOT DAYS AND WARM NIGHTS...NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL.
THINK THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH FRONT APPROACHING AND
MORE CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  77  98  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          96  76  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           103  80 104  79 103  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  76 102  76  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  79  93  81  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          100  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  77 100  77  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  80  93  81  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 250542 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE WHETHER THERE WILL BE FOG IN THE KALI
AND KVCT TERMINALS...AND WHETHER TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE FOR FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BRING SOME FOG TO THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME CALM AFTER BEING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST. HAVE PUT IN MVFR BR/TEMPO IFR BR AT KALI AND TEMPO
MVFR BR AT KVCT BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS IN KALI ARE ABOUT 3F RIGHT NOW WHILE THEY ARE STILL 5F
AT KVCT. CONCERNING CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AT EASTERN
TERMINALS FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA- BREEZE...BUT ONLY MAINTAIN
A PROB30 AT KALI FOR NOW. THIS IS BASED ON 4KM MODEL OUTPUT AS
WELL AS GFS IS SHOWING SOME LIFT AT KALI WITH KVCT BEING MUCH
DRIER (WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING DRIER AIR COMING IN). WILL DECIDE ON
WHETHER TO KEEP VCTS AND/OR PROB30S (OR RE-ADD THEM) FOR THE 12Z
TERMINAL ISSUANCE. OTHER THAN THAT...WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT MAINLY SOUTH WINDS BEFORE THEY BECOME SOUTHEAST WITH
THE SEA- BREEZE BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL SPEEDS AS GRADIENT
IS NOT STRONG. ANY CONVECTION THAT IS AROUND SHOULD END BY 26/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON SURROUNDING RADARS...CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
WEST AND DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER DISTURBANCE AS SEEN ON
WV SATELLITE...IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SW WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER MID
LEVELS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NE CWA. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING
SHOWED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE AND MODELS PROG
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AM EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DVLP
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE MID TX COAST AND A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT COMBINING WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO
REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING PRECIP...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY ENDING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND A BLANKET OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS FROM KALI-KBEA-KVCT AROUND DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY DIPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRI AFTN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVERHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...IDEAL SETUP TODAY FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS S TX AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...MID
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY/SURFACE
CONVERGENCE HAVE ALL COMBINED TO RESULT IN A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF CWA SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST A COUPLE OF HOURS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY BEFORE EFFECTS FROM NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKE EFFECT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NW ZONES. A WEAK TUTT LOW WILL SLIDE WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. INTERACTION OF TUTT LOW WITH
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MAX
TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT OVERALL STILL NOT TOO STRONG.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS WL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE RESULT WL BE
TO MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FCST PD. THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN
RETROGRADING BY WED AND THU. THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO A SEWD MOVING
S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSCTD WITH THIS
S/WV WL BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWA BY THURSDAY. FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE AND POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES BY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST PD.
IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS WL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS.  BASICALLY WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  95  78  94  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  97  76  96  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 104  79 103  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  77  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  90  80  90  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  77 100  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  78  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 250542 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE WHETHER THERE WILL BE FOG IN THE KALI
AND KVCT TERMINALS...AND WHETHER TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE FOR FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BRING SOME FOG TO THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME CALM AFTER BEING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST. HAVE PUT IN MVFR BR/TEMPO IFR BR AT KALI AND TEMPO
MVFR BR AT KVCT BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS IN KALI ARE ABOUT 3F RIGHT NOW WHILE THEY ARE STILL 5F
AT KVCT. CONCERNING CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AT EASTERN
TERMINALS FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA- BREEZE...BUT ONLY MAINTAIN
A PROB30 AT KALI FOR NOW. THIS IS BASED ON 4KM MODEL OUTPUT AS
WELL AS GFS IS SHOWING SOME LIFT AT KALI WITH KVCT BEING MUCH
DRIER (WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING DRIER AIR COMING IN). WILL DECIDE ON
WHETHER TO KEEP VCTS AND/OR PROB30S (OR RE-ADD THEM) FOR THE 12Z
TERMINAL ISSUANCE. OTHER THAN THAT...WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT MAINLY SOUTH WINDS BEFORE THEY BECOME SOUTHEAST WITH
THE SEA- BREEZE BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL SPEEDS AS GRADIENT
IS NOT STRONG. ANY CONVECTION THAT IS AROUND SHOULD END BY 26/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON SURROUNDING RADARS...CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
WEST AND DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER DISTURBANCE AS SEEN ON
WV SATELLITE...IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SW WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER MID
LEVELS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NE CWA. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING
SHOWED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE AND MODELS PROG
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AM EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DVLP
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE MID TX COAST AND A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT COMBINING WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO
REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING PRECIP...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY ENDING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND A BLANKET OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS FROM KALI-KBEA-KVCT AROUND DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY DIPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRI AFTN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVERHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...IDEAL SETUP TODAY FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS S TX AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...MID
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY/SURFACE
CONVERGENCE HAVE ALL COMBINED TO RESULT IN A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF CWA SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST A COUPLE OF HOURS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY BEFORE EFFECTS FROM NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKE EFFECT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NW ZONES. A WEAK TUTT LOW WILL SLIDE WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. INTERACTION OF TUTT LOW WITH
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MAX
TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT OVERALL STILL NOT TOO STRONG.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS WL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE RESULT WL BE
TO MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FCST PD. THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN
RETROGRADING BY WED AND THU. THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO A SEWD MOVING
S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSCTD WITH THIS
S/WV WL BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWA BY THURSDAY. FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE AND POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES BY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST PD.
IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS WL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS.  BASICALLY WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  95  78  94  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  97  76  96  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 104  79 103  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  77  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  90  80  90  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  77 100  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  78  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 250052
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
752 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON SURROUNDING RADARS...CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
WEST AND DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER DISTURBANCE AS SEEN ON
WV SATELLITE...IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SW WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER MID
LEVELS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NE CWA. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING
SHOWED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE AND MODELS PROG
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AM EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DVLP
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE MID TX COAST AND A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT COMBINING WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO
REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING PRECIP...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY ENDING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND A BLANKET OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS FROM KALI-KBEA-KVCT AROUND DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY DIPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRI AFTN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVERHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...IDEAL SETUP TODAY FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS S TX AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...MID
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY/SURFACE
CONVERGENCE HAVE ALL COMBINED TO RESULT IN A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF CWA SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST A COUPLE OF HOURS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY BEFORE EFFECTS FROM NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKE EFFECT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NW ZONES. A WEAK TUTT LOW WILL SLIDE WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. INTERACTION OF TUTT LOW WITH
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MAX
TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT OVERALL STILL NOT TOO STRONG.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS WL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE RESULT WL BE
TO MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FCST PD. THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN
RETROGRADING BY WED AND THU. THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO A SEWD MOVING
S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSCTD WITH THIS
S/WV WL BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWA BY THURSDAY. FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE AND POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES BY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST PD.
IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS WL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS.  BASICALLY WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  97  76  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  98  75  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 103  80 104  79  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74 101  75  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  92  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  76 102  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  99  77  97  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  91  80  90  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 250052
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
752 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON SURROUNDING RADARS...CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
WEST AND DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER DISTURBANCE AS SEEN ON
WV SATELLITE...IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SW WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER MID
LEVELS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NE CWA. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING
SHOWED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE AND MODELS PROG
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AM EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DVLP
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE MID TX COAST AND A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT COMBINING WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO
REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING PRECIP...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY ENDING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND A BLANKET OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS FROM KALI-KBEA-KVCT AROUND DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY DIPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRI AFTN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVERHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...IDEAL SETUP TODAY FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS S TX AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...MID
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY/SURFACE
CONVERGENCE HAVE ALL COMBINED TO RESULT IN A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF CWA SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST A COUPLE OF HOURS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY BEFORE EFFECTS FROM NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKE EFFECT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NW ZONES. A WEAK TUTT LOW WILL SLIDE WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. INTERACTION OF TUTT LOW WITH
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MAX
TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT OVERALL STILL NOT TOO STRONG.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS WL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE RESULT WL BE
TO MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FCST PD. THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN
RETROGRADING BY WED AND THU. THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO A SEWD MOVING
S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSCTD WITH THIS
S/WV WL BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWA BY THURSDAY. FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE AND POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES BY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST PD.
IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS WL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS.  BASICALLY WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  97  76  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  98  75  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 103  80 104  79  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74 101  75  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  92  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  76 102  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  99  77  97  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  91  80  90  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 250003
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
703 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY ENDING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND A BLANKET OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS FROM KALI-KBEA-KVCT AROUND DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY DIPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRI AFTN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...IDEAL SETUP TODAY FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS S TX AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...MID
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY/SURFACE
CONVERGENCE HAVE ALL COMBINED TO RESULT IN A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF CWA SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST A COUPLE OF HOURS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY BEFORE EFFECTS FROM NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKE EFFECT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NW ZONES. A WEAK TUTT LOW WILL SLIDE WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. INTERACTION OF TUTT LOW WITH
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MAX
TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT OVERALL STILL NOT TOO STRONG.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS WL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE RESULT WL BE
TO MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FCST PD. THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN
RETROGRADING BY WED AND THU. THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO A SEWD MOVING
S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSCTD WITH THIS
S/WV WL BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWA BY THURSDAY. FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE AND POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES BY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST PD.
IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS WL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS.  BASICALLY WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  97  76  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  98  75  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 103  80 104  79  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74 101  75  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  92  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  76 102  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  99  77  97  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  91  80  90  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 250003
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
703 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY ENDING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND A BLANKET OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS FROM KALI-KBEA-KVCT AROUND DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY DIPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRI AFTN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...IDEAL SETUP TODAY FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS S TX AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...MID
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY/SURFACE
CONVERGENCE HAVE ALL COMBINED TO RESULT IN A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF CWA SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST A COUPLE OF HOURS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY BEFORE EFFECTS FROM NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKE EFFECT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NW ZONES. A WEAK TUTT LOW WILL SLIDE WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. INTERACTION OF TUTT LOW WITH
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MAX
TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT OVERALL STILL NOT TOO STRONG.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS WL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE RESULT WL BE
TO MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FCST PD. THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN
RETROGRADING BY WED AND THU. THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO A SEWD MOVING
S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSCTD WITH THIS
S/WV WL BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWA BY THURSDAY. FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE AND POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES BY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST PD.
IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS WL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS.  BASICALLY WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  97  76  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  98  75  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 103  80 104  79  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74 101  75  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  92  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  76 102  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  99  77  97  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  91  80  90  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 242018
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...IDEAL SETUP TODAY FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS S TX AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...MID
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY/SURFACE
CONVERGENCE HAVE ALL COMBINED TO RESULT IN A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF CWA SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST A COUPLE OF HOURS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY BEFORE EFFECTS FROM NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKE EFFECT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NW ZONES. A WEAK TUTT LOW WILL SLIDE WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. INTERACTION OF TUTT LOW WITH
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MAX
TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT OVERALL STILL NOT TOO STRONG.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS WL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE RESULT WL BE
TO MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FCST PD. THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN
RETROGRADING BY WED AND THU. THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO A SEWD MOVING
S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSCTD WITH THIS
S/WV WL BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWA BY THURSDAY. FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE AND POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES BY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST PD.
IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS WL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS.  BASICALLY WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  97  76  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  98  75  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 103  80 104  79  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74 101  75  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  92  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  76 102  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  99  77  97  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  91  80  90  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 242018
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...IDEAL SETUP TODAY FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS S TX AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...MID
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY/SURFACE
CONVERGENCE HAVE ALL COMBINED TO RESULT IN A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF CWA SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST A COUPLE OF HOURS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY BEFORE EFFECTS FROM NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKE EFFECT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NW ZONES. A WEAK TUTT LOW WILL SLIDE WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. INTERACTION OF TUTT LOW WITH
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MAX
TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT OVERALL STILL NOT TOO STRONG.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS WL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE RESULT WL BE
TO MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FCST PD. THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN
RETROGRADING BY WED AND THU. THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO A SEWD MOVING
S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSCTD WITH THIS
S/WV WL BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWA BY THURSDAY. FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE AND POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES BY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST PD.
IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS WL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS.  BASICALLY WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  97  76  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  98  75  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 103  80 104  79  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74 101  75  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  92  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  76 102  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  99  77  97  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  91  80  90  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 241738 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UDPATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTN/EVENING IS PRIMARY
FCST CHALLENGE. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR ALL
TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTN WITH KVCT AND POSSIBLY KLRD HAVING
GREATEST CHANCES. IF TSRA MOVES DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS THEN A
PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO HVY RA. CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VFR XPCTD OVERNIGHT /ASIDE
FROM BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE AT KVCT/KALI. VFR TO PERSIST
INTO FRI MRNG WITH SCT CU FIELD DVLPNG. GENERALLY LIGHT/VRB SFC
WINDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERHAPS MORE ESERLY DIRECTION MID
TO LATE AFTN THRU EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  74  96  76  95  /  30  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          96  75  97  75  97  /  40  20  10  10  10
LAREDO           102  79 103  79 104  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             99  74 100  74  99  /  40  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  78  91  79  90  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 102  75 102  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  75  98  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  78  93  80  89  /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 241738 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UDPATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTN/EVENING IS PRIMARY
FCST CHALLENGE. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR ALL
TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTN WITH KVCT AND POSSIBLY KLRD HAVING
GREATEST CHANCES. IF TSRA MOVES DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS THEN A
PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO HVY RA. CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VFR XPCTD OVERNIGHT /ASIDE
FROM BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE AT KVCT/KALI. VFR TO PERSIST
INTO FRI MRNG WITH SCT CU FIELD DVLPNG. GENERALLY LIGHT/VRB SFC
WINDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERHAPS MORE ESERLY DIRECTION MID
TO LATE AFTN THRU EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  74  96  76  95  /  30  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          96  75  97  75  97  /  40  20  10  10  10
LAREDO           102  79 103  79 104  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             99  74 100  74  99  /  40  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  78  91  79  90  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 102  75 102  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  75  98  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  78  93  80  89  /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 241456 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
956 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO TODAY/S FORECAST. H5
VORT MAX IS PROG TO MOVE FROM NE TO SW ACROSS NORTHERN CWA TODAY.
COMBINATION OF SAID DISTURBANCE...AN INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE...INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...AND LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT
FROM AFTERNOON SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD LEAD TO A
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS AREAWIDE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS AND
LIGHTNING BEING PRIMARY HAZARD OF CONCERN. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. FUTURE UPDATES POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  74  96  76  95  /  30  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          96  75  97  75  97  /  40  20  10  10  10
LAREDO           102  79 103  79 104  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             99  74 100  74  99  /  40  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  78  91  79  90  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 102  75 102  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  75  98  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  78  93  80  89  /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 241456 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
956 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO TODAY/S FORECAST. H5
VORT MAX IS PROG TO MOVE FROM NE TO SW ACROSS NORTHERN CWA TODAY.
COMBINATION OF SAID DISTURBANCE...AN INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE...INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...AND LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT
FROM AFTERNOON SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD LEAD TO A
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS AREAWIDE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS AND
LIGHTNING BEING PRIMARY HAZARD OF CONCERN. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. FUTURE UPDATES POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  74  96  76  95  /  30  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          96  75  97  75  97  /  40  20  10  10  10
LAREDO           102  79 103  79 104  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             99  74 100  74  99  /  40  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  78  91  79  90  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 102  75 102  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  75  98  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  78  93  80  89  /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 241120
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING...BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
REMAIN SO FAR...ALI AND CRP COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MAINLY VFR DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT LRD...BUT CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AT 850 MB ALONG WITH
LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE THE MOST LIKELY DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AND PUSH WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...SEEING A BIT OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE USUAL
SPOTS...NE ZONES INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

LATER THIS MORNING...A WEAK PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE NORTHEAST AND MARINE ZONES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH. GFS INDICATES 2 INCH PWAT ZONE APPROACHING NORTHEAST
ZONES...BUT OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST WITH MOISTURE. SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN MARINE
ZONES.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING EASTWARD WILL SEE A GENERAL
DECREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WEST TOPPING OUT JUST OVER
100...AND MID 90S EAST. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WL PESIST OVER THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD WITH DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ONE
SUCH DISTURRBANCE IS PROGD TO DIG/DEVELOP ACRS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS
AND CONTRIBUTE TO A SFC BNDRY ENTERING CNTRL TX BY TUESDAY. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAK BNDRY WL MEANDER JUSTS NORTH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. GFS PROG PWAT VALUES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE CWA. WL RETAIN ONLY 10 POPS OVER
THE NRN CWA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITHOUT PCPN. EXPECT MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 100-105F RANGE. WW3 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SWELL PERIODS IN THE 8 TO 9 SECOND RANGE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST
SATURDAY/SUNDAY ENHANCING THE RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  74  96  76  95  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          98  75  97  75  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           103  79 103  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  74 100  74  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  78  91  79  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          101  75 102  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  75  98  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  78  93  80  89  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 241120
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING...BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
REMAIN SO FAR...ALI AND CRP COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MAINLY VFR DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT LRD...BUT CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AT 850 MB ALONG WITH
LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE THE MOST LIKELY DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AND PUSH WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...SEEING A BIT OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE USUAL
SPOTS...NE ZONES INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

LATER THIS MORNING...A WEAK PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE NORTHEAST AND MARINE ZONES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH. GFS INDICATES 2 INCH PWAT ZONE APPROACHING NORTHEAST
ZONES...BUT OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST WITH MOISTURE. SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN MARINE
ZONES.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING EASTWARD WILL SEE A GENERAL
DECREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WEST TOPPING OUT JUST OVER
100...AND MID 90S EAST. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WL PESIST OVER THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD WITH DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ONE
SUCH DISTURRBANCE IS PROGD TO DIG/DEVELOP ACRS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS
AND CONTRIBUTE TO A SFC BNDRY ENTERING CNTRL TX BY TUESDAY. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAK BNDRY WL MEANDER JUSTS NORTH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. GFS PROG PWAT VALUES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE CWA. WL RETAIN ONLY 10 POPS OVER
THE NRN CWA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITHOUT PCPN. EXPECT MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 100-105F RANGE. WW3 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SWELL PERIODS IN THE 8 TO 9 SECOND RANGE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST
SATURDAY/SUNDAY ENHANCING THE RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  74  96  76  95  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          98  75  97  75  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           103  79 103  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  74 100  74  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  78  91  79  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          101  75 102  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  75  98  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  78  93  80  89  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION








000
FXUS64 KCRP 240858
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AT 850 MB ALONG WITH
LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE THE MOST LIKELY DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AND PUSH WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...SEEING A BIT OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE USUAL
SPOTS...NE ZONES INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

LATER THIS MORNING...A WEAK PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE NORTHEAST AND MARINE ZONES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH. GFS INDICATES 2 INCH PWAT ZONE APPROACHING NORTHEAST
ZONES...BUT OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST WITH MOISTURE. SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN MARINE
ZONES.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING EASTWARD WILL SEE A GENERAL
DECREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WEST TOPPING OUT JUST OVER
100...AND MID 90S EAST. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WL PESIST OVER THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD WITH DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ONE
SUCH DISTURRBANCE IS PROGD TO DIG/DEVELOP ACRS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS
AND CONTRIBUTE TO A SFC BNDRY ENTERING CNTRL TX BY TUESDAY. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAK BNDRY WL MEANDER JUSTS NORTH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. GFS PROG PWAT VALUES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE CWA. WL RETAIN ONLY 10 POPS OVER
THE NRN CWA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITHOUT PCPN. EXPECT MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 100-105F RANGE. WW3 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SWELL PERIODS IN THE 8 TO 9 SECOND RANGE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST
SATURDAY/SUNDAY ENHANCING THE RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  74  96  76  95  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          98  75  97  75  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           103  79 103  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  74 100  74  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  78  91  79  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          101  75 102  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  75  98  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  78  93  80  89  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 240858
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AT 850 MB ALONG WITH
LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE THE MOST LIKELY DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AND PUSH WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...SEEING A BIT OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE USUAL
SPOTS...NE ZONES INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

LATER THIS MORNING...A WEAK PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE NORTHEAST AND MARINE ZONES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH. GFS INDICATES 2 INCH PWAT ZONE APPROACHING NORTHEAST
ZONES...BUT OTHER MODELS NOT AS ROBUST WITH MOISTURE. SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN MARINE
ZONES.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING EASTWARD WILL SEE A GENERAL
DECREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WEST TOPPING OUT JUST OVER
100...AND MID 90S EAST. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WL PESIST OVER THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD WITH DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ONE
SUCH DISTURRBANCE IS PROGD TO DIG/DEVELOP ACRS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS
AND CONTRIBUTE TO A SFC BNDRY ENTERING CNTRL TX BY TUESDAY. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAK BNDRY WL MEANDER JUSTS NORTH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. GFS PROG PWAT VALUES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE CWA. WL RETAIN ONLY 10 POPS OVER
THE NRN CWA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITHOUT PCPN. EXPECT MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 100-105F RANGE. WW3 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SWELL PERIODS IN THE 8 TO 9 SECOND RANGE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST
SATURDAY/SUNDAY ENHANCING THE RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  74  96  76  95  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          98  75  97  75  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           103  79 103  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  74 100  74  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  78  91  79  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          101  75 102  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  75  98  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  78  93  80  89  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 240546
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NORTH. HAVE SEEN A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP CLOSE TO VCT TONIGHT...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
BRIEF AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITE. CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR
TCU...BUT CHANCE IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
LIGHT FOG ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT WOULD BE BRIEF. SHOULD SEE
A VFR DAY TOMORROW AFTER ANY MORNING FOG CLEARS...ALSO EXPECT
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES ALONG WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. RADAR
INDICATED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHRA`S MOVG W ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE
ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT ISOLD SHRAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
THE STRONGEST ALONG WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO SFC/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE WIND.
AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
BRIEFLY HAVE VSBYS DROP TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AROUND SUNRISE.
OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS HAS
BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG/BR TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE RETAINED THE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT ALI/CRP/VCT
MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LRD WILL
REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TOO MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
/THOUGH DECENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT AT TIMES JUST TO OUR
NE/. TUTT LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR APART
WITH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROG TO SLIDE SW ACROSS THE WEST GULF
AND OVER DEEP S TX. DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO
TONIGHT AND COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND FIELD...ABOVE NORMAL
PARTICULATE MATTER...AND SAID DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG/HAZE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
LIGHT LANDBREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST
WHICH SHOULD AID IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY ALONG WITH APPROACH OF SHEAR AXIS /THOUGH AXIS SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA/. COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH ENHANCED MORNING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LANDBREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MARINE AREAS AND IMMEDIATE COAST THURSDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. ANY CONVECTION PRESENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY/S VALUES WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
FOR FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RDG AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS RGN WL REMAIN IN FIRM
CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MAIN
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WL REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...HOLDING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR CWA.  OVERALL THE MOISTURE LEVELS WL
REMAIN DRY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.  AS A RESULT WL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH TUE WITH THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE.  TEMPS
WL LIKEWISE REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN THESE DRY CONDITIONS.
BY WED...THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST AS A S/WV
DIVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE ASSCTD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS FEATURE AND BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING REMNANT CONVECTION MAKING INTO THE VCT AREA.  WAY TOO
EARLY TO CALL FOR THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL KEEP WED DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  73  97  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          98  74  97  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           103  79 104  80 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  73 101  75 101  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          92  79  92  80  92  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  74 103  75 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  74  99  76  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  78  92  80  92  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 240131
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
831 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES ALONG WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. RADAR
INDICATED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHRA`S MOVG W ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE
ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT ISOLD SHRAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
THE STRONGEST ALONG WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO SFC/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE WIND.
AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
BRIEFLY HAVE VSBYS DROP TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AROUND SUNRISE.
OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS HAS
BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG/BR TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE RETAINED THE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT ALI/CRP/VCT
MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LRD WILL
REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TOO MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
/THOUGH DECENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT AT TIMES JUST TO OUR
NE/. TUTT LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR APART
WITH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROG TO SLIDE SW ACROSS THE WEST GULF
AND OVER DEEP S TX. DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO
TONIGHT AND COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND FIELD...ABOVE NORMAL
PARTICULATE MATTER...AND SAID DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG/HAZE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
LIGHT LANDBREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST
WHICH SHOULD AID IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY ALONG WITH APPROACH OF SHEAR AXIS /THOUGH AXIS SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA/. COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH ENHANCED MORNING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LANDBREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MARINE AREAS AND IMMEDIATE COAST THURSDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. ANY CONVECTION PRESENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY/S VALUES WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
FOR FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RDG AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS RGN WL REMAIN IN FIRM
CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MAIN
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WL REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...HOLDING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR CWA.  OVERALL THE MOISTURE LEVELS WL
REMAIN DRY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.  AS A RESULT WL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH TUE WITH THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE.  TEMPS
WL LIKEWISE REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN THESE DRY CONDITIONS.
BY WED...THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST AS A S/WV
DIVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE ASSCTD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS FEATURE AND BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING REMNANT CONVECTION MAKING INTO THE VCT AREA.  WAY TOO
EARLY TO CALL FOR THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL KEEP WED DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  97  73  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  98  74  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 103  79 104  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74 100  73 101  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  92  79  92  80  /  10  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  74 103  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  74  99  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  92  78  92  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 240131
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
831 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES ALONG WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. RADAR
INDICATED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHRA`S MOVG W ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE
ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT ISOLD SHRAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
THE STRONGEST ALONG WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO SFC/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE WIND.
AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
BRIEFLY HAVE VSBYS DROP TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AROUND SUNRISE.
OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS HAS
BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG/BR TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE RETAINED THE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT ALI/CRP/VCT
MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LRD WILL
REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TOO MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
/THOUGH DECENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT AT TIMES JUST TO OUR
NE/. TUTT LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR APART
WITH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROG TO SLIDE SW ACROSS THE WEST GULF
AND OVER DEEP S TX. DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO
TONIGHT AND COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND FIELD...ABOVE NORMAL
PARTICULATE MATTER...AND SAID DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG/HAZE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
LIGHT LANDBREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST
WHICH SHOULD AID IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY ALONG WITH APPROACH OF SHEAR AXIS /THOUGH AXIS SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA/. COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH ENHANCED MORNING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LANDBREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MARINE AREAS AND IMMEDIATE COAST THURSDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. ANY CONVECTION PRESENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY/S VALUES WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
FOR FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RDG AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS RGN WL REMAIN IN FIRM
CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MAIN
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WL REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...HOLDING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR CWA.  OVERALL THE MOISTURE LEVELS WL
REMAIN DRY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.  AS A RESULT WL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH TUE WITH THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE.  TEMPS
WL LIKEWISE REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN THESE DRY CONDITIONS.
BY WED...THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST AS A S/WV
DIVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE ASSCTD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS FEATURE AND BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING REMNANT CONVECTION MAKING INTO THE VCT AREA.  WAY TOO
EARLY TO CALL FOR THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL KEEP WED DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  97  73  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  98  74  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 103  79 104  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74 100  73 101  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  92  79  92  80  /  10  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  74 103  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  74  99  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  92  78  92  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232357 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
657 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS HAS
BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG/BR TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE RETAINED THE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT ALI/CRP/VCT
MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LRD WILL
REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TOO MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
/THOUGH DECENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT AT TIMES JUST TO OUR
NE/. TUTT LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR APART
WITH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROG TO SLIDE SW ACROSS THE WEST GULF
AND OVER DEEP S TX. DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO
TONIGHT AND COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND FIELD...ABOVE NORMAL
PARTICULATE MATTER...AND SAID DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG/HAZE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
LIGHT LANDBREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST
WHICH SHOULD AID IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY ALONG WITH APPROACH OF SHEAR AXIS /THOUGH AXIS SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA/. COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH ENHANCED MORNING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LANDBREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MARINE AREAS AND IMMEDIATE COAST THURSDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. ANY CONVECTION PRESENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY/S VALUES WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
FOR FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RDG AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS RGN WL REMAIN IN FIRM
CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MAIN
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WL REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...HOLDING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR CWA.  OVERALL THE MOISTURE LEVELS WL
REMAIN DRY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.  AS A RESULT WL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH TUE WITH THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE.  TEMPS
WL LIKEWISE REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN THESE DRY CONDITIONS.
BY WED...THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST AS A S/WV
DIVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE ASSCTD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS FEATURE AND BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING REMNANT CONVECTION MAKING INTO THE VCT AREA.  WAY TOO
EARLY TO CALL FOR THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL KEEP WED DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  97  73  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  98  74  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 103  79 104  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74 100  73 101  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  92  79  92  80  /  10  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  74 103  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  74  99  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  92  78  92  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 232357 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
657 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS HAS
BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG/BR TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE RETAINED THE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT ALI/CRP/VCT
MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LRD WILL
REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TOO MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
/THOUGH DECENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT AT TIMES JUST TO OUR
NE/. TUTT LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR APART
WITH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROG TO SLIDE SW ACROSS THE WEST GULF
AND OVER DEEP S TX. DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO
TONIGHT AND COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND FIELD...ABOVE NORMAL
PARTICULATE MATTER...AND SAID DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG/HAZE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
LIGHT LANDBREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST
WHICH SHOULD AID IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY ALONG WITH APPROACH OF SHEAR AXIS /THOUGH AXIS SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA/. COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH ENHANCED MORNING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LANDBREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MARINE AREAS AND IMMEDIATE COAST THURSDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. ANY CONVECTION PRESENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY/S VALUES WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
FOR FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RDG AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS RGN WL REMAIN IN FIRM
CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MAIN
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WL REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...HOLDING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR CWA.  OVERALL THE MOISTURE LEVELS WL
REMAIN DRY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.  AS A RESULT WL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH TUE WITH THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE.  TEMPS
WL LIKEWISE REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN THESE DRY CONDITIONS.
BY WED...THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST AS A S/WV
DIVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE ASSCTD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS FEATURE AND BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING REMNANT CONVECTION MAKING INTO THE VCT AREA.  WAY TOO
EARLY TO CALL FOR THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL KEEP WED DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  97  73  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  98  74  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 103  79 104  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74 100  73 101  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  92  79  92  80  /  10  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  74 103  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  74  99  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  92  78  92  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232003
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
303 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
/THOUGH DECENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT AT TIMES JUST TO OUR
NE/. TUTT LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR APART
WITH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROG TO SLIDE SW ACROSS THE WEST GULF
AND OVER DEEP S TX. DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO
TONIGHT AND COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND FIELD...ABOVE NORMAL
PARTICULATE MATTER...AND SAID DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG/HAZE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
LIGHT LANDBREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST
WHICH SHOULD AID IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY ALONG WITH APPROACH OF SHEAR AXIS /THOUGH AXIS SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA/. COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH ENHANCED MORNING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LANDBREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MARINE AREAS AND IMMEDIATE COAST THURSDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. ANY CONVECTION PRESENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY/S VALUES WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
FOR FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RDG AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS RGN WL REMAIN IN FIRM
CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MAIN
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WL REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...HOLDING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR CWA.  OVERALL THE MOISTURE LEVELS WL
REMAIN DRY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.  AS A RESULT WL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH TUE WITH THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE.  TEMPS
WL LIKEWISE REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN THESE DRY CONDITIONS.
BY WED...THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST AS A S/WV
DIVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE ASSCTD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS FEATURE AND BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING REMNANT CONVECTION MAKING INTO THE VCT AREA.  WAY TOO
EARLY TO CALL FOR THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL KEEP WED DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  97  73  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  98  74  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 103  79 104  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74 100  73 101  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  92  79  92  80  /  10  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  74 103  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  74  99  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  92  78  92  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232003
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
303 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
/THOUGH DECENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT AT TIMES JUST TO OUR
NE/. TUTT LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR APART
WITH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROG TO SLIDE SW ACROSS THE WEST GULF
AND OVER DEEP S TX. DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO
TONIGHT AND COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND FIELD...ABOVE NORMAL
PARTICULATE MATTER...AND SAID DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG/HAZE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
LIGHT LANDBREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST
WHICH SHOULD AID IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY ALONG WITH APPROACH OF SHEAR AXIS /THOUGH AXIS SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA/. COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH ENHANCED MORNING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LANDBREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MARINE AREAS AND IMMEDIATE COAST THURSDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. ANY CONVECTION PRESENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY/S VALUES WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
FOR FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RDG AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS RGN WL REMAIN IN FIRM
CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MAIN
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WL REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...HOLDING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR CWA.  OVERALL THE MOISTURE LEVELS WL
REMAIN DRY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.  AS A RESULT WL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH TUE WITH THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE.  TEMPS
WL LIKEWISE REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN THESE DRY CONDITIONS.
BY WED...THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST AS A S/WV
DIVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE ASSCTD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS FEATURE AND BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING REMNANT CONVECTION MAKING INTO THE VCT AREA.  WAY TOO
EARLY TO CALL FOR THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL KEEP WED DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  97  73  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  98  74  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 103  79 104  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74 100  73 101  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  92  79  92  80  /  10  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  74 103  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  98  74  99  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  92  78  92  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 231733 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH POSSIBLE DETERIORATION OF
FLIGHT RULES OVERNIGHT. VFR LEVEL CU FIELD THIS AFTN WITH ISO TO
SCT CONVECTION XPCTD TO DVLP. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE VCNTY KVCT
AND HAVE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR SAID TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING /SOME PASSING CI/ WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BR/FG DVLPMNT OVERNIGHT AT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI AND HAVE VSBYS REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR LATE TONIGHT.
KLRD XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE NIGHT. VSBYS ACROSS THE EAST
WILL IMPROVE DRNG THE MRNG THURS WITH VFR RETURNING. GENERALLY
LIGHT/VRB WINDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SE WINDS MID/LATE AFTERNOON AT
KCRP/KALI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  95  75  97  /  20  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          96  75  96  75  97  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           102  79 102  79 105  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  76  97  74 101  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  79  91  79  92  /  30  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          101  76 102  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  76  96  75  99  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  89  80  92  /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 231733 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH POSSIBLE DETERIORATION OF
FLIGHT RULES OVERNIGHT. VFR LEVEL CU FIELD THIS AFTN WITH ISO TO
SCT CONVECTION XPCTD TO DVLP. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE VCNTY KVCT
AND HAVE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR SAID TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING /SOME PASSING CI/ WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BR/FG DVLPMNT OVERNIGHT AT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI AND HAVE VSBYS REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR LATE TONIGHT.
KLRD XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE NIGHT. VSBYS ACROSS THE EAST
WILL IMPROVE DRNG THE MRNG THURS WITH VFR RETURNING. GENERALLY
LIGHT/VRB WINDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SE WINDS MID/LATE AFTERNOON AT
KCRP/KALI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  95  75  97  /  20  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          96  75  96  75  97  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           102  79 102  79 105  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  76  97  74 101  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  79  91  79  92  /  30  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          101  76 102  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  76  96  75  99  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  89  80  92  /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231543 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1043 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST FOR
TODAY. INCREASED POPS ACROSS NE ZONES AS ENHANCED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE/LANDBREEZE HAS HELPED INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS VCNTY MATAGORDA BAY. CONVERGENCE SHOULD RELAX OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...SEABREEZE
INITIATES...AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DPVA. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS
BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS PRIMARILY EASTERN HALF OF CWA. REDUCED
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST FOR THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASED IT ACROSS THE E/NE ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  95  75  97  /  20  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          96  75  96  75  97  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           102  79 102  79 105  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  76  97  74 101  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  79  91  79  92  /  30  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          101  76 102  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  76  96  75  99  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  89  80  92  /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231543 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1043 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST FOR
TODAY. INCREASED POPS ACROSS NE ZONES AS ENHANCED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE/LANDBREEZE HAS HELPED INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS VCNTY MATAGORDA BAY. CONVERGENCE SHOULD RELAX OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...SEABREEZE
INITIATES...AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DPVA. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS
BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS PRIMARILY EASTERN HALF OF CWA. REDUCED
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST FOR THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASED IT ACROSS THE E/NE ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  95  75  97  /  20  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          96  75  96  75  97  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           102  79 102  79 105  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  76  97  74 101  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  79  91  79  92  /  30  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          101  76 102  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  76  96  75  99  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  79  89  80  92  /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 231146
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
646 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AVIATION...A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DRG ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 181 DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. AGAIN GENERALLY LGT
WIND DRG THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WL TRANSITION
FROM VFR THIS EVENING TO MVFR DRG THE 09-13Z THURSDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT A
TUTT LOW WL ENTER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA FROM THE
NORTHEAST (GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY (NAM
DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE ERN
CWA/WRN MSA MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES TODAY 105F OR LESS OVER THE CWA. NOCTURAL ISOLD CONVECTION
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE MSA. THE GFS SHEARS APART THE TUTT LOW
AS IT ENTERS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTN. THUS UNCLEAR OF THE EXTENT TO
WHICH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WL AFFECT THE CWA/MSA. WL MAINTAIN
ISOLD CONVECTION FOR THE ERN CWA/MSA THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS RETURN TO
UNFAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AS IT MOVES WESTWARD EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. MOISTURE REMAINS
MODEST WITH PWAT VALUES FROM 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. H85 AND H7 TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMED KEEPING A WEAK CAP
ACROSS THE REGION. ALL THIS SAID...AS MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE LOW
END FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO REMAIN VERY WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...AND FROM 100-105 ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LATE SEASON FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH WITH WEAK PUSH FROM THE MIDLEVELS...WILL MAINTAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA LEAVING POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  76  95  75  97  /  20  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          94  75  96  75  97  /  20  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           102  79 102  79 105  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             97  76  97  74 101  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          89  79  91  79  92  /  20  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          100  76 102  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        95  76  96  75  99  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       88  79  89  80  92  /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 231146
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
646 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AVIATION...A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DRG ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 181 DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. AGAIN GENERALLY LGT
WIND DRG THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WL TRANSITION
FROM VFR THIS EVENING TO MVFR DRG THE 09-13Z THURSDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT A
TUTT LOW WL ENTER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA FROM THE
NORTHEAST (GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY (NAM
DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE ERN
CWA/WRN MSA MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES TODAY 105F OR LESS OVER THE CWA. NOCTURAL ISOLD CONVECTION
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE MSA. THE GFS SHEARS APART THE TUTT LOW
AS IT ENTERS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTN. THUS UNCLEAR OF THE EXTENT TO
WHICH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WL AFFECT THE CWA/MSA. WL MAINTAIN
ISOLD CONVECTION FOR THE ERN CWA/MSA THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS RETURN TO
UNFAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AS IT MOVES WESTWARD EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. MOISTURE REMAINS
MODEST WITH PWAT VALUES FROM 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. H85 AND H7 TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMED KEEPING A WEAK CAP
ACROSS THE REGION. ALL THIS SAID...AS MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE LOW
END FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO REMAIN VERY WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...AND FROM 100-105 ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LATE SEASON FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH WITH WEAK PUSH FROM THE MIDLEVELS...WILL MAINTAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA LEAVING POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  76  95  75  97  /  20  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          94  75  96  75  97  /  20  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           102  79 102  79 105  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             97  76  97  74 101  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          89  79  91  79  92  /  20  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          100  76 102  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        95  76  96  75  99  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       88  79  89  80  92  /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 230858
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
358 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT A
TUTT LOW WL ENTER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA FROM THE
NORTHEAST (GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY (NAM
DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE ERN
CWA/WRN MSA MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES TODAY 105F OR LESS OVER THE CWA. NOCTURAL ISOLD CONVECTION
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE MSA. THE GFS SHEARS APART THE TUTT LOW
AS IT ENTERS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTN. THUS UNCLEAR OF THE EXTENT TO
WHICH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WL AFFECT THE CWA/MSA. WL MAINTAIN
ISOLD CONVECTION FOR THE ERN CWA/MSA THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS RETURN TO
UNFAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AS IT MOVES WESTWARD EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. MOISTURE REMAINS
MODEST WITH PWAT VALUES FROM 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. H85 AND H7 TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMED KEEPING A WEAK CAP
ACROSS THE REGION. ALL THIS SAID...AS MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE LOW
END FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO REMAIN VERY WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...AND FROM 100-105 ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LATE SEASON FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH WITH WEAK PUSH FROM THE MIDLEVELS...WILL MAINTAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA LEAVING POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  76  95  75  97  /  20  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          94  75  96  75  97  /  20  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           102  79 102  79 105  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             97  76  97  74 101  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          89  79  91  79  92  /  20  10  20  10  10
COTULLA          100  76 102  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        95  76  96  75  99  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       88  79  89  80  92  /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 230610
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
110 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A COMBINATION OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281 DURING THE 08-13Z THURSDAY PERIOD. AFTERWARD...
PRIMARILY PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR DRG ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 181
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY LGT WIND DRG THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE NE OF THE AREA WITH RIDGING
TO THE NW MAINTAINING CONTROL OVER S TX. SFC/SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG FOR SOME EASTERN LOCATIONS
TOWARD WED MORNING...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTIONING IN THE ZONE FCST. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...VFR IN KLRD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS THIS EVENING. OVERALL THOUGH...RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FORECAST. FARTHER EAST...HAD
SOME LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING AT KALI AND KVCT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HIGHER THAN THEY ARE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO THINK FOG WILL
AGAIN BE A FACTOR IN THE EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
THUS...AM GOING MVFR BR (TEMPO IFR BR) AT KALI AND KVCT BETWEEN
08Z AND 14Z (TEMPO BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z). WITH WEAK GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE SEA-BREEZE BUT STILL NOT AS
GUSTY AS USUAL BEHIND IT. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY (EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON) IS INSUFFICIENT AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IN THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER THERE BASED ON MOISTURE ADVECTION PROFILES IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TUTT LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL GULF COAST IS PROG TO SLOWLY
SHIFT WEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ELONGATED/SHEAR
AXIS WED NIGHT. HEIGHT FIELD SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH APPROACH
OF THE SYSTEM...AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR WED/WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
AVAILABILITY/PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE /ESPECIALLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ WITH THE NAM HAVING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WED AND GFS HAVING DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY /THOUGH A QUICK GLANCE SHOWS 18Z NAM MAY BE
COMING MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z GFS PWATS/. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO TUTT LOW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EVEN MORESO
WED NIGHT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIGHT AND VRB LLVL WIND
FIELD...SHOULD RESULT IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. COOLER H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS ON WED SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS SHEAR AXIS MOVES FURTHER
TO THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA. HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 105 DEGREES
NEAR LAREDO TO MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET...BUT RAIN
CHANCES POPS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  74  96  75  97  /  20  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          97  74  97  76  97  /  30  10  20  10  20
LAREDO           104  79 103  79 105  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             99  74 100  74 101  /  20  10  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          92  78  92  79  92  /  20  10  20  10  20
COTULLA          102  75 103  76 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        97  74  98  75  99  /  20  10  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       91  80  91  80  92  /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 230610
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
110 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A COMBINATION OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281 DURING THE 08-13Z THURSDAY PERIOD. AFTERWARD...
PRIMARILY PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR DRG ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 181
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY LGT WIND DRG THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE NE OF THE AREA WITH RIDGING
TO THE NW MAINTAINING CONTROL OVER S TX. SFC/SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG FOR SOME EASTERN LOCATIONS
TOWARD WED MORNING...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTIONING IN THE ZONE FCST. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...VFR IN KLRD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS THIS EVENING. OVERALL THOUGH...RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FORECAST. FARTHER EAST...HAD
SOME LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING AT KALI AND KVCT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HIGHER THAN THEY ARE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO THINK FOG WILL
AGAIN BE A FACTOR IN THE EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
THUS...AM GOING MVFR BR (TEMPO IFR BR) AT KALI AND KVCT BETWEEN
08Z AND 14Z (TEMPO BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z). WITH WEAK GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE SEA-BREEZE BUT STILL NOT AS
GUSTY AS USUAL BEHIND IT. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY (EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON) IS INSUFFICIENT AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IN THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER THERE BASED ON MOISTURE ADVECTION PROFILES IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TUTT LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL GULF COAST IS PROG TO SLOWLY
SHIFT WEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ELONGATED/SHEAR
AXIS WED NIGHT. HEIGHT FIELD SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH APPROACH
OF THE SYSTEM...AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR WED/WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
AVAILABILITY/PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE /ESPECIALLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ WITH THE NAM HAVING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WED AND GFS HAVING DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY /THOUGH A QUICK GLANCE SHOWS 18Z NAM MAY BE
COMING MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z GFS PWATS/. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO TUTT LOW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EVEN MORESO
WED NIGHT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIGHT AND VRB LLVL WIND
FIELD...SHOULD RESULT IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. COOLER H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS ON WED SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS SHEAR AXIS MOVES FURTHER
TO THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA. HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 105 DEGREES
NEAR LAREDO TO MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET...BUT RAIN
CHANCES POPS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  74  96  75  97  /  20  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          97  74  97  76  97  /  30  10  20  10  20
LAREDO           104  79 103  79 105  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             99  74 100  74 101  /  20  10  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          92  78  92  79  92  /  20  10  20  10  20
COTULLA          102  75 103  76 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        97  74  98  75  99  /  20  10  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       91  80  91  80  92  /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 230215
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
915 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE NE OF THE AREA WITH RIDGING
TO THE NW MAINTAINING CONTROL OVER S TX. SFC/SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG FOR SOME EASTERN LOCATIONS
TOWARD WED MORNING...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTIONING IN THE ZONE FCST. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...VFR IN KLRD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS THIS EVENING. OVERALL THOUGH...RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FORECAST. FARTHER EAST...HAD
SOME LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING AT KALI AND KVCT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HIGHER THAN THEY ARE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO THINK FOG WILL
AGAIN BE A FACTOR IN THE EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
THUS...AM GOING MVFR BR (TEMPO IFR BR) AT KALI AND KVCT BETWEEN
08Z AND 14Z (TEMPO BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z). WITH WEAK GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE SEA-BREEZE BUT STILL NOT AS
GUSTY AS USUAL BEHIND IT. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY (EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON) IS INSUFFICIENT AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IN THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER THERE BASED ON MOISTURE ADVECTION PROFILES IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TUTT LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL GULF COAST IS PROG TO SLOWLY
SHIFT WEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ELONGATED/SHEAR
AXIS WED NIGHT. HEIGHT FIELD SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH APPROACH
OF THE SYSTEM...AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR WED/WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
AVAILABILITY/PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE /ESPECIALLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ WITH THE NAM HAVING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WED AND GFS HAVING DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY /THOUGH A QUICK GLANCE SHOWS 18Z NAM MAY BE
COMING MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z GFS PWATS/. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO TUTT LOW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EVEN MORESO
WED NIGHT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIGHT AND VRB LLVL WIND
FIELD...SHOULD RESULT IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. COOLER H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS ON WED SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS SHEAR AXIS MOVES FURTHER
TO THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA. HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 105 DEGREES
NEAR LAREDO TO MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET...BUT RAIN
CHANCES POPS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  96  74  96  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
VICTORIA          74  97  74  97  76  /  10  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            80 104  79 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  74 100  74  /  10  20  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          79  92  78  92  79  /  10  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           76 102  75 103  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  74  98  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  91  80  /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 230215
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
915 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE NE OF THE AREA WITH RIDGING
TO THE NW MAINTAINING CONTROL OVER S TX. SFC/SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG FOR SOME EASTERN LOCATIONS
TOWARD WED MORNING...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTIONING IN THE ZONE FCST. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...VFR IN KLRD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS THIS EVENING. OVERALL THOUGH...RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FORECAST. FARTHER EAST...HAD
SOME LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING AT KALI AND KVCT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HIGHER THAN THEY ARE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO THINK FOG WILL
AGAIN BE A FACTOR IN THE EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
THUS...AM GOING MVFR BR (TEMPO IFR BR) AT KALI AND KVCT BETWEEN
08Z AND 14Z (TEMPO BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z). WITH WEAK GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE SEA-BREEZE BUT STILL NOT AS
GUSTY AS USUAL BEHIND IT. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY (EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON) IS INSUFFICIENT AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IN THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER THERE BASED ON MOISTURE ADVECTION PROFILES IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TUTT LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL GULF COAST IS PROG TO SLOWLY
SHIFT WEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ELONGATED/SHEAR
AXIS WED NIGHT. HEIGHT FIELD SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH APPROACH
OF THE SYSTEM...AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR WED/WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
AVAILABILITY/PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE /ESPECIALLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ WITH THE NAM HAVING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WED AND GFS HAVING DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY /THOUGH A QUICK GLANCE SHOWS 18Z NAM MAY BE
COMING MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z GFS PWATS/. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO TUTT LOW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EVEN MORESO
WED NIGHT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIGHT AND VRB LLVL WIND
FIELD...SHOULD RESULT IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. COOLER H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS ON WED SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS SHEAR AXIS MOVES FURTHER
TO THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA. HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 105 DEGREES
NEAR LAREDO TO MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET...BUT RAIN
CHANCES POPS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  96  74  96  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
VICTORIA          74  97  74  97  76  /  10  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            80 104  79 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  74 100  74  /  10  20  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          79  92  78  92  79  /  10  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           76 102  75 103  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  74  98  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  91  80  /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 222344 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR IN KLRD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS THIS EVENING. OVERALL THOUGH...RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FORECAST. FARTHER EAST...HAD
SOME LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING AT KALI AND KVCT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HIGHER THAN THEY ARE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO THINK FOG WILL
AGAIN BE A FACTOR IN THE EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
THUS...AM GOING MVFR BR (TEMPO IFR BR) AT KALI AND KVCT BETWEEN
08Z AND 14Z (TEMPO BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z). WITH WEAK GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE SEA-BREEZE BUT STILL NOT AS
GUSTY AS USUAL BEHIND IT. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY (EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON) IS INSUFFICIENT AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IN THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER THERE BASED ON MOISTURE ADVECTION PROFILES IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TUTT LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL GULF COAST IS PROG TO SLOWLY
SHIFT WEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ELONGATED/SHEAR
AXIS WED NIGHT. HEIGHT FIELD SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH APPROACH
OF THE SYSTEM...AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR WED/WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
AVAILABILITY/PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE /ESPECIALLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ WITH THE NAM HAVING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WED AND GFS HAVING DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY /THOUGH A QUICK GLANCE SHOWS 18Z NAM MAY BE
COMING MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z GFS PWATS/. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO TUTT LOW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EVEN MORESO
WED NIGHT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIGHT AND VRB LLVL WIND
FIELD...SHOULD RESULT IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. COOLER H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS ON WED SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS SHEAR AXIS MOVES FURTHER
TO THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA. HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 105 DEGREES
NEAR LAREDO TO MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET...BUT RAIN
CHANCES POPS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  96  74  96  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
VICTORIA          74  97  74  97  76  /  10  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            80 104  79 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  74 100  74  /  10  20  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          79  92  78  92  79  /  10  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           76 102  75 103  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  74  98  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  91  80  /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 222046
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TUTT LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL GULF COAST IS PROG TO SLOWLY
SHIFT WEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ELONGATED/SHEAR
AXIS WED NIGHT. HEIGHT FIELD SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH APPROACH
OF THE SYSTEM...AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR WED/WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
AVAILABILITY/PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE /ESPECIALLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ WITH THE NAM HAVING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WED AND GFS HAVING DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY /THOUGH A QUICK GLANCE SHOWS 18Z NAM MAY BE
COMING MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z GFS PWATS/. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO TUTT LOW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EVEN MORESO
WED NIGHT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIGHT AND VRB LLVL WIND
FIELD...SHOULD RESULT IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. COOLER H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS ON WED SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS SHEAR AXIS MOVES FURTHER
TO THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA. HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 105 DEGREES
NEAR LAREDO TO MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET...BUT RAIN
CHANCES POPS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  96  74  96  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
VICTORIA          74  97  74  97  76  /  10  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            80 104  79 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  74 100  74  /  10  20  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          79  92  78  92  79  /  10  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           76 102  75 103  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  74  98  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  91  80  /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 222046
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TUTT LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL GULF COAST IS PROG TO SLOWLY
SHIFT WEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ELONGATED/SHEAR
AXIS WED NIGHT. HEIGHT FIELD SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH APPROACH
OF THE SYSTEM...AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR WED/WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
AVAILABILITY/PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE /ESPECIALLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ WITH THE NAM HAVING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WED AND GFS HAVING DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY /THOUGH A QUICK GLANCE SHOWS 18Z NAM MAY BE
COMING MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z GFS PWATS/. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO TUTT LOW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EVEN MORESO
WED NIGHT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIGHT AND VRB LLVL WIND
FIELD...SHOULD RESULT IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. COOLER H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS ON WED SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS SHEAR AXIS MOVES FURTHER
TO THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA. HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 105 DEGREES
NEAR LAREDO TO MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET...BUT RAIN
CHANCES POPS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  96  74  96  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
VICTORIA          74  97  74  97  76  /  10  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            80 104  79 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  74 100  74  /  10  20  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          79  92  78  92  79  /  10  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           76 102  75 103  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  74  98  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  91  80  /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 221736 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS ASIDE FROM BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AROUND
SUNRISE WED. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS AFTN WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES /SOME PASSING CI/ OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SE WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT MAY
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE. ANY REDUCED
VSBYS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MID MRNG WITH SCT CU FIELD DVLPNG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  78  94  76  96  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          98  76  93  76  97  /  10  10  20  10  20
LAREDO           105  78 102  79 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             99  76  98  75 100  /  10  10  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  79  89  79  92  /  10  10  20  10  20
COTULLA          101  77 102  76 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  77  97  76  98  /  10  10  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       91  79  89  79  91  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 221736 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS ASIDE FROM BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AROUND
SUNRISE WED. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS AFTN WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES /SOME PASSING CI/ OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SE WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT MAY
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE. ANY REDUCED
VSBYS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MID MRNG WITH SCT CU FIELD DVLPNG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  78  94  76  96  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          98  76  93  76  97  /  10  10  20  10  20
LAREDO           105  78 102  79 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             99  76  98  75 100  /  10  10  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  79  89  79  92  /  10  10  20  10  20
COTULLA          101  77 102  76 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  77  97  76  98  /  10  10  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       91  79  89  79  91  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221453 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
953 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY A CATEGORY TO TWO
FOR ALL INLAND AREAS FOR THIS MORNING...AND LOWERED BY A CATEGORY
OVER GULF WATERS. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WE MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS SE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HAZARDS AS DRY LAYER FROM APPROX H9 TO H7
SHOULD MIX DOWN. HOWEVER...HEAT INDICES MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO
AROUND 110 DEGREES IMMEDIATELY AFTER SEABREEZE PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  78  94  76  96  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          98  76  93  76  97  /  10  10  20  10  20
LAREDO           105  78 102  79 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             99  76  98  75 100  /  10  10  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  79  89  79  92  /  10  10  20  10  20
COTULLA          101  77 102  76 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  77  97  76  98  /  10  10  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       91  79  89  79  91  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 221453 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
953 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY A CATEGORY TO TWO
FOR ALL INLAND AREAS FOR THIS MORNING...AND LOWERED BY A CATEGORY
OVER GULF WATERS. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WE MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS SE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HAZARDS AS DRY LAYER FROM APPROX H9 TO H7
SHOULD MIX DOWN. HOWEVER...HEAT INDICES MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO
AROUND 110 DEGREES IMMEDIATELY AFTER SEABREEZE PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  78  94  76  96  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          98  76  93  76  97  /  10  10  20  10  20
LAREDO           105  78 102  79 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             99  76  98  75 100  /  10  10  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  79  89  79  92  /  10  10  20  10  20
COTULLA          101  77 102  76 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  77  97  76  98  /  10  10  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       91  79  89  79  91  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM






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