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000
FXUS64 KCRP 260939
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
339 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH HAS SHIFTED TO
THE NW GULF WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WEAK TO MOD S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. AS A RESULT...MX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE SHORT
TERM. A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS S TX EARLY THU MORNING WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING. WINDS ARE PROGD TO SHIFT TO THE
NE THU MORNING BUT BY THU AFTERNOON WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E AND SE.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY LATE THIS WEEK. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND BRING A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...PWAT INCREASES FROM
NEAR 0.5 INCH EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO OVER ONE INCH ON SATURDAY.
WHILE ONLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL EXIST AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND MARINE AREAS. EXPECT
GRADUALLY INCREASING MIN TEMPS...BUT NEAR STEADY MAX TEMPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. QUIET WEATHER MAY END BY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA. MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER A FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OR NOT...MORE CONSISTENT GFS MODEL STILL KEEPS THE
FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE ECMWF RUN NOW PUSHES A
RELATIVELY STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. AS THIS IS THE FIRST INDICATION OF A STRONGER FRONT
WILL HOLD OFF ON BUYING ALL THE WAY INTO THIS...AND LEAN MORE TOWARD
GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  47  71  56  74  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          73  45  69  49  73  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            76  47  74  53  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             75  46  73  53  75  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          69  53  68  60  72  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           74  42  71  49  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        74  46  73  55  75  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  53  70  60  73  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 260939
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
339 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH HAS SHIFTED TO
THE NW GULF WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WEAK TO MOD S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. AS A RESULT...MX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE SHORT
TERM. A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS S TX EARLY THU MORNING WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING. WINDS ARE PROGD TO SHIFT TO THE
NE THU MORNING BUT BY THU AFTERNOON WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E AND SE.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY LATE THIS WEEK. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND BRING A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...PWAT INCREASES FROM
NEAR 0.5 INCH EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO OVER ONE INCH ON SATURDAY.
WHILE ONLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL EXIST AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND MARINE AREAS. EXPECT
GRADUALLY INCREASING MIN TEMPS...BUT NEAR STEADY MAX TEMPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. QUIET WEATHER MAY END BY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA. MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER A FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OR NOT...MORE CONSISTENT GFS MODEL STILL KEEPS THE
FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE ECMWF RUN NOW PUSHES A
RELATIVELY STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. AS THIS IS THE FIRST INDICATION OF A STRONGER FRONT
WILL HOLD OFF ON BUYING ALL THE WAY INTO THIS...AND LEAN MORE TOWARD
GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  47  71  56  74  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          73  45  69  49  73  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            76  47  74  53  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             75  46  73  53  75  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          69  53  68  60  72  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           74  42  71  49  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        74  46  73  55  75  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  53  70  60  73  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 260428
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1028 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENT HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. LVAR WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENTLY
SWLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE DAY...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET WED NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS RIGHT OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTED OFFSHORE JUST BEFORE 00Z WINDS CLOSE TO
THE COAST BECAME ONSHORE AND DWPTS JUMPED UP. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE
OVERALL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. ALL IN ALL THE LATEST RUC
SEEMS TO HV A GREAT HANDLE ON ALL THE SMALL SCALE NUANCES OF THE
WEATHER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HV USED IT TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. OTHERWISE THE PREV FCST APPEARS TO BE IN
GREAT SHAPE WITH A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT AHEAD FOR
SOUTH TX.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

AVIATION...CAVU THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION. LVAR WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXITS
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A CONTINUED
DRY AND COOL AIR MASS AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AREA-WIDE TONIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWERS 70S AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ACTING MORE AS A REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY RESUME AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WL TRANSITION FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD TO QUASI-ZONAL LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...
ONSHORE FLOW WL INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER
DISTURBANCES ACRS SWRN/SCNTRL CANADA FRIDAY...THEN ACRS THE U.S.
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT TOWARD TX. YET...THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STALLS THE FRONT
NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH.
CONCUR WITH THE FORMER SOLUTION. (CAVEAT...GIVEN THE VERY LOW
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO CNTRL/SRN TX AS A DENSITY CURRENT. YET WOULD LIKE TO SEE
CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF SOLN BEFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR WL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY. AT
LEAST SCEC WIND EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS OWING TO THE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  42  73  47  71  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  39  72  45  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            70  45  76  47  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             70  40  75  46  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          69  46  69  51  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           70  38  74  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        70  40  74  46  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       69  49  70  53  70  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 260428
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1028 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENT HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. LVAR WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENTLY
SWLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE DAY...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET WED NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS RIGHT OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTED OFFSHORE JUST BEFORE 00Z WINDS CLOSE TO
THE COAST BECAME ONSHORE AND DWPTS JUMPED UP. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE
OVERALL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. ALL IN ALL THE LATEST RUC
SEEMS TO HV A GREAT HANDLE ON ALL THE SMALL SCALE NUANCES OF THE
WEATHER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HV USED IT TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. OTHERWISE THE PREV FCST APPEARS TO BE IN
GREAT SHAPE WITH A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT AHEAD FOR
SOUTH TX.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

AVIATION...CAVU THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION. LVAR WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXITS
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A CONTINUED
DRY AND COOL AIR MASS AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AREA-WIDE TONIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWERS 70S AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ACTING MORE AS A REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY RESUME AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WL TRANSITION FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD TO QUASI-ZONAL LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...
ONSHORE FLOW WL INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER
DISTURBANCES ACRS SWRN/SCNTRL CANADA FRIDAY...THEN ACRS THE U.S.
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT TOWARD TX. YET...THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STALLS THE FRONT
NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH.
CONCUR WITH THE FORMER SOLUTION. (CAVEAT...GIVEN THE VERY LOW
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO CNTRL/SRN TX AS A DENSITY CURRENT. YET WOULD LIKE TO SEE
CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF SOLN BEFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR WL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY. AT
LEAST SCEC WIND EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS OWING TO THE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  42  73  47  71  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  39  72  45  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            70  45  76  47  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             70  40  75  46  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          69  46  69  51  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           70  38  74  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        70  40  74  46  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       69  49  70  53  70  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 260150
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
750 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS RIGHT OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTED OFFSHORE JUST BEFORE 00Z WINDS CLOSE TO
THE COAST BECAME ONSHORE AND DWPTS JUMPED UP. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE
OVERALL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. ALL IN ALL THE LATEST RUC
SEEMS TO HV A GREAT HANDLE ON ALL THE SMALL SCALE NUANCES OF THE
WEATHER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HV USED IT TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. OTHERWISE THE PREV FCST APPEARS TO BE IN
GREAT SHAPE WITH A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT AHEAD FOR
SOUTH TX.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

AVIATION...CAVU THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION. LVAR WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXITS
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A CONTINUED
DRY AND COOL AIR MASS AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AREA-WIDE TONIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWERS 70S AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ACTING MORE AS A REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY RESUME AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WL TRANSITION FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD TO QUASI-ZONAL LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...
ONSHORE FLOW WL INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER
DISTURBANCES ACRS SWRN/SCNTRL CANADA FRIDAY...THEN ACRS THE U.S.
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT TOWARD TX. YET...THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STALLS THE FRONT
NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH.
CONCUR WITH THE FORMER SOLUTION. (CAVEAT...GIVEN THE VERY LOW
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO CNTRL/SRN TX AS A DENSITY CURRENT. YET WOULD LIKE TO SEE
CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF SOLN BEFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR WL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY. AT
LEAST SCEC WIND EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS OWING TO THE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    42  73  47  71  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          39  72  45  69  50  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            45  76  47  74  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             40  75  46  73  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          46  69  51  69  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           38  74  42  72  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        40  74  46  73  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       49  70  53  70  59  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ






000
FXUS64 KCRP 260150
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
750 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS RIGHT OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTED OFFSHORE JUST BEFORE 00Z WINDS CLOSE TO
THE COAST BECAME ONSHORE AND DWPTS JUMPED UP. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE
OVERALL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. ALL IN ALL THE LATEST RUC
SEEMS TO HV A GREAT HANDLE ON ALL THE SMALL SCALE NUANCES OF THE
WEATHER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HV USED IT TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. OTHERWISE THE PREV FCST APPEARS TO BE IN
GREAT SHAPE WITH A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT AHEAD FOR
SOUTH TX.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

AVIATION...CAVU THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION. LVAR WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXITS
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A CONTINUED
DRY AND COOL AIR MASS AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AREA-WIDE TONIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWERS 70S AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ACTING MORE AS A REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY RESUME AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WL TRANSITION FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD TO QUASI-ZONAL LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...
ONSHORE FLOW WL INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER
DISTURBANCES ACRS SWRN/SCNTRL CANADA FRIDAY...THEN ACRS THE U.S.
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT TOWARD TX. YET...THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STALLS THE FRONT
NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH.
CONCUR WITH THE FORMER SOLUTION. (CAVEAT...GIVEN THE VERY LOW
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO CNTRL/SRN TX AS A DENSITY CURRENT. YET WOULD LIKE TO SEE
CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF SOLN BEFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR WL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY. AT
LEAST SCEC WIND EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS OWING TO THE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    42  73  47  71  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          39  72  45  69  50  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            45  76  47  74  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             40  75  46  73  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          46  69  51  69  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           38  74  42  72  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        40  74  46  73  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       49  70  53  70  59  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ







000
FXUS64 KCRP 252315
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...CAVU THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION. LVAR WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXITS
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A CONTINUED
DRY AND COOL AIR MASS AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AREA-WIDE TONIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWERS 70S AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ACTING MORE AS A REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY RESUME AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WL TRANSITION FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD TO QUASI-ZONAL LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...
ONSHORE FLOW WL INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER
DISTURBANCES ACRS SWRN/SCNTRL CANADA FRIDAY...THEN ACRS THE U.S.
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT TOWARD TX. YET...THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STALLS THE FRONT
NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH.
CONCUR WITH THE FORMER SOLUTION. (CAVEAT...GIVEN THE VERY LOW
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO CNTRL/SRN TX AS A DENSITY CURRENT. YET WOULD LIKE TO SEE
CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF SOLN BEFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR WL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY. AT
LEAST SCEC WIND EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS OWING TO THE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    42  73  47  71  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          39  72  45  69  50  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            45  76  47  74  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             40  75  46  73  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          46  69  51  69  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           38  74  42  72  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        40  74  46  73  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       49  70  53  70  59  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 252315
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...CAVU THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION. LVAR WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXITS
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A CONTINUED
DRY AND COOL AIR MASS AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AREA-WIDE TONIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWERS 70S AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ACTING MORE AS A REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY RESUME AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WL TRANSITION FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD TO QUASI-ZONAL LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...
ONSHORE FLOW WL INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER
DISTURBANCES ACRS SWRN/SCNTRL CANADA FRIDAY...THEN ACRS THE U.S.
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT TOWARD TX. YET...THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STALLS THE FRONT
NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH.
CONCUR WITH THE FORMER SOLUTION. (CAVEAT...GIVEN THE VERY LOW
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO CNTRL/SRN TX AS A DENSITY CURRENT. YET WOULD LIKE TO SEE
CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF SOLN BEFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR WL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY. AT
LEAST SCEC WIND EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS OWING TO THE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    42  73  47  71  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          39  72  45  69  50  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            45  76  47  74  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             40  75  46  73  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          46  69  51  69  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           38  74  42  72  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        40  74  46  73  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       49  70  53  70  59  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 252122
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
322 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXITS
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A CONTINUED
DRY AND COOL AIR MASS AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AREA-WIDE TONIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWERS 70S AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ACTING MORE AS A REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY RESUME AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WL TRANSITION FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD TO QUASI-ZONAL LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...
ONSHORE FLOW WL INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER
DISTURBANCES ACRS SWRN/SCNTRL CANADA FRIDAY...THEN ACRS THE U.S.
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT TOWARD TX. YET...THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STALLS THE FRONT
NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH.
CONCUR WITH THE FORMER SOLUTION. (CAVEAT...GIVEN THE VERY LOW
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO CNTRL/SRN TX AS A DENSITY CURRENT. YET WOULD LIKE TO SEE
CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF SOLN BEFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR WL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY. AT
LEAST SCEC WIND EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS OWING TO THE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    42  73  47  71  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          39  72  45  69  50  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            45  76  47  74  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             40  75  46  73  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          46  69  51  69  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           38  74  42  72  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        40  74  46  73  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       49  70  53  70  59  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 252122
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
322 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXITS
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A CONTINUED
DRY AND COOL AIR MASS AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AREA-WIDE TONIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWERS 70S AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ACTING MORE AS A REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY RESUME AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WL TRANSITION FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD TO QUASI-ZONAL LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...
ONSHORE FLOW WL INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER
DISTURBANCES ACRS SWRN/SCNTRL CANADA FRIDAY...THEN ACRS THE U.S.
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT TOWARD TX. YET...THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STALLS THE FRONT
NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH.
CONCUR WITH THE FORMER SOLUTION. (CAVEAT...GIVEN THE VERY LOW
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO CNTRL/SRN TX AS A DENSITY CURRENT. YET WOULD LIKE TO SEE
CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF SOLN BEFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA MONDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR WL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY. AT
LEAST SCEC WIND EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS OWING TO THE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    42  73  47  71  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          39  72  45  69  50  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            45  76  47  74  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             40  75  46  73  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          46  69  51  69  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           38  74  42  72  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        40  74  46  73  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       49  70  53  70  59  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 251737 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1137 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...MAINLY A WIND FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAKE ON A WESTERN COMPONENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LRD BECOMING AND REMAINING SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID-LATE MORNING 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  42  72  47  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          67  39  71  45  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            70  45  76  46  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             68  40  74  46  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  46  69  51  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           68  38  73  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        69  40  73  45  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  49  70  53  71  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 251737 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1137 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...MAINLY A WIND FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAKE ON A WESTERN COMPONENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LRD BECOMING AND REMAINING SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID-LATE MORNING 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  42  72  47  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          67  39  71  45  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            70  45  76  46  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             68  40  74  46  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  46  69  51  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           68  38  73  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        69  40  73  45  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  49  70  53  71  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 251603 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1003 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS REGARDING CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO MOVE
OUT THE AREA WITH THINNING OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DID BUMP
MAX TEMPS UP FOR WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AS OBS OUT WEST HAVE
ALREADY SHOWN THE FASTER WARM UP UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING IS
RESULTING IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE AT VFR LEVELS
AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH
CLRG SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CTR OF A SFC HIGH
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROF IS BRINGING SOME MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PROGD TO
EXIT THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY CLR SKIES THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE SHORT WAVE IS ALSO BRINGING REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS S TX....WHICH HAS LED TO A MOD TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. TONIGHTS LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE N AND LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE S CWA. THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E BY WED WITH A LIGHT S TO SW FLOW
DVLPG...LEADING TO A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS
MAINLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND MARINE AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS
SHOWING HINTS OF WHAT COULD BE OUR NEXT FRONT...THOUGH BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WASH THE BOUNDARY OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD MAINLY IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WARM FROM THE 40S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE MID 60S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  42  72  47  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          67  39  71  45  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            70  45  76  46  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             68  40  74  46  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  46  69  51  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           68  38  73  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        69  40  73  45  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  49  70  53  71  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 251603 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1003 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS REGARDING CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO MOVE
OUT THE AREA WITH THINNING OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DID BUMP
MAX TEMPS UP FOR WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AS OBS OUT WEST HAVE
ALREADY SHOWN THE FASTER WARM UP UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING IS
RESULTING IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE AT VFR LEVELS
AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH
CLRG SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CTR OF A SFC HIGH
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROF IS BRINGING SOME MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PROGD TO
EXIT THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY CLR SKIES THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE SHORT WAVE IS ALSO BRINGING REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS S TX....WHICH HAS LED TO A MOD TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. TONIGHTS LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE N AND LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE S CWA. THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E BY WED WITH A LIGHT S TO SW FLOW
DVLPG...LEADING TO A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS
MAINLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND MARINE AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS
SHOWING HINTS OF WHAT COULD BE OUR NEXT FRONT...THOUGH BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WASH THE BOUNDARY OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD MAINLY IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WARM FROM THE 40S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE MID 60S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  42  72  47  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          67  39  71  45  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            70  45  76  46  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             68  40  74  46  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  46  69  51  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           68  38  73  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        69  40  73  45  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  49  70  53  71  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 251119
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
519 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING IS
RESULTING IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE AT VFR LEVELS
AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH
CLRG SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CTR OF A SFC HIGH
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROF IS BRINGING SOME MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PROGD TO
EXIT THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY CLR SKIES THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE SHORT WAVE IS ALSO BRINGING REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS S TX....WHICH HAS LED TO A MOD TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. TONIGHTS LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE N AND LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE S CWA. THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E BY WED WITH A LIGHT S TO SW FLOW
DVLPG...LEADING TO A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS
MAINLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND MARINE AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS
SHOWING HINTS OF WHAT COULD BE OUR NEXT FRONT...THOUGH BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WASH THE BOUNDARY OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD MAINLY IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WARM FROM THE 40S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE MID 60S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  42  72  47  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  39  71  45  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            70  45  76  46  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             68  40  74  46  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  46  69  51  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           68  38  73  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        69  40  73  45  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  49  70  53  71  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 251119
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
519 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING IS
RESULTING IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE AT VFR LEVELS
AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH
CLRG SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CTR OF A SFC HIGH
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROF IS BRINGING SOME MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PROGD TO
EXIT THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY CLR SKIES THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE SHORT WAVE IS ALSO BRINGING REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS S TX....WHICH HAS LED TO A MOD TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. TONIGHTS LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE N AND LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE S CWA. THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E BY WED WITH A LIGHT S TO SW FLOW
DVLPG...LEADING TO A WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS
MAINLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND MARINE AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS
SHOWING HINTS OF WHAT COULD BE OUR NEXT FRONT...THOUGH BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WASH THE BOUNDARY OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD MAINLY IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WARM FROM THE 40S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE MID 60S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  42  72  47  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  39  71  45  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            70  45  76  46  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             68  40  74  46  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  46  69  51  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           68  38  73  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        69  40  73  45  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  49  70  53  71  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 250937
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
337 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROF IS BRINGING SOME MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PROGD TO
EXIT THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY CLR SKIES THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE SHORT WAVE IS ALSO BRINGING REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS S TX....WHICH HAS LED TO A MOD TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. TONIGHTS LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE N AND LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE S CWA. THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E BY WED WITH A LIGHT S TO SW FLOW
DVLPG...LEADING TO A WARMING TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS
MAINLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND MARINE AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS
SHOWING HINTS OF WHAT COULD BE OUR NEXT FRONT...THOUGH BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WASH THE BOUNDARY OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD MAINLY IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WARM FROM THE 40S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE MID 60S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  42  72  47  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  39  71  45  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            70  45  76  46  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             68  40  74  46  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  46  69  51  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           68  38  73  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        69  40  73  45  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  49  70  53  71  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 250937
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
337 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROF IS BRINGING SOME MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PROGD TO
EXIT THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY CLR SKIES THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE SHORT WAVE IS ALSO BRINGING REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS S TX....WHICH HAS LED TO A MOD TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. TONIGHTS LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE N AND LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE S CWA. THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E BY WED WITH A LIGHT S TO SW FLOW
DVLPG...LEADING TO A WARMING TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS
MAINLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND MARINE AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS
SHOWING HINTS OF WHAT COULD BE OUR NEXT FRONT...THOUGH BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WASH THE BOUNDARY OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD MAINLY IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WARM FROM THE 40S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE MID 60S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  42  72  47  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  39  71  45  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            70  45  76  46  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             68  40  74  46  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  46  69  51  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           68  38  73  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        69  40  73  45  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  49  70  53  71  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 250455
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1055 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST FOR 06Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK
DOWN INTO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING PROVIDING
CAVU CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT NLY SURFACE WINDS
TO BECOME LVAR AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WILL UPDATE THE MWW AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST SHORTLY TO
CONNECT THE EVENING SCA WITH THE ONE THAT GOES INTO EFFECT TUESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PERIOD BELOW SCA CRITERIA WILL BE VERY
BRIEF SO CONNECTING THE TWO IS THE WAY TO GO.

WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST AND HV MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY MAINTAIN MID DECK
CIGS OVERNIGHT WELL ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS. NLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING JUST AS SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT A STG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR (RECENT
GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES/NAM DETERMINISTIC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS)...
EXPECT ONLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND NO PCPN OVER THE CWA/MSA
TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY DRG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. (SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY OVER THE MSA TUESDAY YET NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT OUTPUT GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MSTR.) COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT/TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH
READINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SCA CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED
BY A DECREASE IN WIND/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. YET...EXPECT SCA TO
OCCUR AGAIN DRG THE 09-20Z TUESDAY PERIOD OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF A WEAK SURGE OF MSLP FROM THE WEST IN RESONSE TO THE FOREGOING
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND TO A SFC LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT WIND/SEAS TO FALL BELOW SCA BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ACT MORE AS A REINFORCING HIGH WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. CHILLY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD THEN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST EASTERN LOCATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
OUT WEST. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE HEADING INTO
LATE WEEKEND WITH PWATS REACHING OVER 1 INCH...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MAINLY THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    65  44  68  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  41  64  39  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            66  47  69  45  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             66  42  67  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          64  47  66  46  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           67  41  67  38  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        66  42  68  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       65  50  66  49  70  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 250455
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1055 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST FOR 06Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK
DOWN INTO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING PROVIDING
CAVU CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT NLY SURFACE WINDS
TO BECOME LVAR AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WILL UPDATE THE MWW AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST SHORTLY TO
CONNECT THE EVENING SCA WITH THE ONE THAT GOES INTO EFFECT TUESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PERIOD BELOW SCA CRITERIA WILL BE VERY
BRIEF SO CONNECTING THE TWO IS THE WAY TO GO.

WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST AND HV MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY MAINTAIN MID DECK
CIGS OVERNIGHT WELL ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS. NLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING JUST AS SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT A STG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR (RECENT
GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES/NAM DETERMINISTIC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS)...
EXPECT ONLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND NO PCPN OVER THE CWA/MSA
TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY DRG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. (SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY OVER THE MSA TUESDAY YET NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT OUTPUT GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MSTR.) COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT/TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH
READINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SCA CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED
BY A DECREASE IN WIND/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. YET...EXPECT SCA TO
OCCUR AGAIN DRG THE 09-20Z TUESDAY PERIOD OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF A WEAK SURGE OF MSLP FROM THE WEST IN RESONSE TO THE FOREGOING
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND TO A SFC LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT WIND/SEAS TO FALL BELOW SCA BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ACT MORE AS A REINFORCING HIGH WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. CHILLY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD THEN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST EASTERN LOCATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
OUT WEST. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE HEADING INTO
LATE WEEKEND WITH PWATS REACHING OVER 1 INCH...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MAINLY THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    65  44  68  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  41  64  39  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            66  47  69  45  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             66  42  67  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          64  47  66  46  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           67  41  67  38  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        66  42  68  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       65  50  66  49  70  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 250029
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WILL UPDATE THE MWW AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST SHORTLY TO
CONNECT THE EVENING SCA WITH THE ONE THAT GOES INTO EFFECT TUESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PERIOD BELOW SCA CRITERIA WILL BE VERY
BRIEF SO CONNECTING THE TWO IS THE WAY TO GO.

WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST AND HV MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY MAINTAIN MID DECK
CIGS OVERNIGHT WELL ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS. NLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING JUST AS SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT A STG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR (RECENT
GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES/NAM DETERMINISTIC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS)...
EXPECT ONLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND NO PCPN OVER THE CWA/MSA
TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY DRG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. (SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY OVER THE MSA TUESDAY YET NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT OUTPUT GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MSTR.) COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT/TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH
READINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SCA CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED
BY A DECREASE IN WIND/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. YET...EXPECT SCA TO
OCCUR AGAIN DRG THE 09-20Z TUESDAY PERIOD OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF A WEAK SURGE OF MSLP FROM THE WEST IN RESONSE TO THE FOREGOING
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND TO A SFC LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT WIND/SEAS TO FALL BELOW SCA BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ACT MORE AS A REINFORCING HIGH WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. CHILLY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD THEN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST EASTERN LOCATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
OUT WEST. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE HEADING INTO
LATE WEEKEND WITH PWATS REACHING OVER 1 INCH...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MAINLY THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    65  44  68  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  41  64  39  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            66  47  69  45  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             66  42  67  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          64  47  66  46  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           67  41  67  38  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        66  42  68  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       65  50  66  49  70  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TJ/70...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 250029
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WILL UPDATE THE MWW AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST SHORTLY TO
CONNECT THE EVENING SCA WITH THE ONE THAT GOES INTO EFFECT TUESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PERIOD BELOW SCA CRITERIA WILL BE VERY
BRIEF SO CONNECTING THE TWO IS THE WAY TO GO.

WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST AND HV MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY MAINTAIN MID DECK
CIGS OVERNIGHT WELL ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS. NLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING JUST AS SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT A STG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR (RECENT
GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES/NAM DETERMINISTIC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS)...
EXPECT ONLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND NO PCPN OVER THE CWA/MSA
TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY DRG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. (SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY OVER THE MSA TUESDAY YET NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT OUTPUT GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MSTR.) COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT/TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH
READINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SCA CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED
BY A DECREASE IN WIND/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. YET...EXPECT SCA TO
OCCUR AGAIN DRG THE 09-20Z TUESDAY PERIOD OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF A WEAK SURGE OF MSLP FROM THE WEST IN RESONSE TO THE FOREGOING
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND TO A SFC LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT WIND/SEAS TO FALL BELOW SCA BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ACT MORE AS A REINFORCING HIGH WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. CHILLY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD THEN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST EASTERN LOCATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
OUT WEST. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE HEADING INTO
LATE WEEKEND WITH PWATS REACHING OVER 1 INCH...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MAINLY THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    65  44  68  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  41  64  39  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            66  47  69  45  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             66  42  67  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          64  47  66  46  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           67  41  67  38  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        66  42  68  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       65  50  66  49  70  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TJ/70...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 242353
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
553 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY MAINTAIN MID DECK
CIGS OVERNIGHT WELL ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS. NLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING JUST AS SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT A STG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR (RECENT
GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES/NAM DETERMINISTIC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS)...
EXPECT ONLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND NO PCPN OVER THE CWA/MSA
TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY DRG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. (SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY OVER THE MSA TUESDAY YET NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT OUTPUT GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MSTR.) COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT/TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH
READINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SCA CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED
BY A DECREASE IN WIND/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. YET...EXPECT SCA TO
OCCUR AGAIN DRG THE 09-20Z TUESDAY PERIOD OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF A WEAK SURGE OF MSLP FROM THE WEST IN RESONSE TO THE FOREGOING
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND TO A SFC LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT WIND/SEAS TO FALL BELOW SCA BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ACT MORE AS A REINFORCING HIGH WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. CHILLY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD THEN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST EASTERN LOCATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
OUT WEST. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE HEADING INTO
LATE WEEKEND WITH PWATS REACHING OVER 1 INCH...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MAINLY THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    65  43  68  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  40  64  39  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            66  46  69  45  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             66  41  67  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          64  46  66  46  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           67  39  67  38  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        66  41  68  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       65  49  66  49  70  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 242353
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
553 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY MAINTAIN MID DECK
CIGS OVERNIGHT WELL ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS. NLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING JUST AS SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT A STG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR (RECENT
GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES/NAM DETERMINISTIC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS)...
EXPECT ONLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND NO PCPN OVER THE CWA/MSA
TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY DRG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. (SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY OVER THE MSA TUESDAY YET NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT OUTPUT GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MSTR.) COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT/TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH
READINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SCA CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED
BY A DECREASE IN WIND/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. YET...EXPECT SCA TO
OCCUR AGAIN DRG THE 09-20Z TUESDAY PERIOD OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF A WEAK SURGE OF MSLP FROM THE WEST IN RESONSE TO THE FOREGOING
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND TO A SFC LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT WIND/SEAS TO FALL BELOW SCA BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ACT MORE AS A REINFORCING HIGH WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. CHILLY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD THEN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST EASTERN LOCATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
OUT WEST. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE HEADING INTO
LATE WEEKEND WITH PWATS REACHING OVER 1 INCH...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MAINLY THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    65  43  68  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  40  64  39  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            66  46  69  45  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             66  41  67  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          64  46  66  46  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           67  39  67  38  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        66  41  68  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       65  49  66  49  70  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 242127
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
327 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT A STG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR (RECENT
GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES/NAM DETERMINISTIC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS)...
EXPECT ONLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND NO PCPN OVER THE CWA/MSA
TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY DRG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. (SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY OVER THE MSA TUESDAY YET NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT OUTPUT GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MSTR.) COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT/TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH
READINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SCA CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED
BY A DECREASE IN WIND/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. YET...EXPECT SCA TO
OCCUR AGAIN DRG THE 09-20Z TUESDAY PERIOD OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF A WEAK SURGE OF MSLP FROM THE WEST IN RESONSE TO THE FOREGOING
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND TO A SFC LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT WIND/SEAS TO FALL BELOW SCA BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ACT MORE AS A REINFORCING HIGH WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. CHILLY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD THEN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST EASTERN LOCATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
OUT WEST. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE HEADING INTO
LATE WEEKEND WITH PWATS REACHING OVER 1 INCH...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MAINLY THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    43  68  42  72  47  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          40  64  39  70  44  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            46  69  45  75  47  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             41  67  40  73  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          46  66  46  69  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           39  67  38  73  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        41  68  40  73  46  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       49  66  49  70  54  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 242127
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
327 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT A STG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR (RECENT
GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES/NAM DETERMINISTIC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS)...
EXPECT ONLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND NO PCPN OVER THE CWA/MSA
TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY DRG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. (SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY OVER THE MSA TUESDAY YET NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT OUTPUT GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MSTR.) COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT/TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH
READINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SCA CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED
BY A DECREASE IN WIND/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. YET...EXPECT SCA TO
OCCUR AGAIN DRG THE 09-20Z TUESDAY PERIOD OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF A WEAK SURGE OF MSLP FROM THE WEST IN RESONSE TO THE FOREGOING
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND TO A SFC LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT WIND/SEAS TO FALL BELOW SCA BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ACT MORE AS A REINFORCING HIGH WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. CHILLY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD THEN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST EASTERN LOCATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
OUT WEST. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE HEADING INTO
LATE WEEKEND WITH PWATS REACHING OVER 1 INCH...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MAINLY THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    43  68  42  72  47  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          40  64  39  70  44  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            46  69  45  75  47  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             41  67  40  73  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          46  66  46  69  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           39  67  38  73  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        41  68  40  73  46  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       49  66  49  70  54  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 242127
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
327 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT A STG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR (RECENT
GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES/NAM DETERMINISTIC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS)...
EXPECT ONLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND NO PCPN OVER THE CWA/MSA
TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY DRG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. (SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY OVER THE MSA TUESDAY YET NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT OUTPUT GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MSTR.) COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT/TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH
READINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SCA CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED
BY A DECREASE IN WIND/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. YET...EXPECT SCA TO
OCCUR AGAIN DRG THE 09-20Z TUESDAY PERIOD OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF A WEAK SURGE OF MSLP FROM THE WEST IN RESONSE TO THE FOREGOING
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND TO A SFC LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT WIND/SEAS TO FALL BELOW SCA BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ACT MORE AS A REINFORCING HIGH WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. CHILLY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD THEN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST EASTERN LOCATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
OUT WEST. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE HEADING INTO
LATE WEEKEND WITH PWATS REACHING OVER 1 INCH...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MAINLY THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    43  68  42  72  47  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          40  64  39  70  44  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            46  69  45  75  47  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             41  67  40  73  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          46  66  46  69  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           39  67  38  73  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        41  68  40  73  46  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       49  66  49  70  54  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 241807
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1207 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY
LGT/MODERATE N/NE SFC WIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...VFR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EASTERN TAFS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WINDS MAY PICK UP A TAD
WITH IT TOO...BUT NOTHING ABOVE 11 KNOTS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TOO DRY
NEAR THE SURFACE FOR SHOWERS...AND THAT DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER AND
MID LEVELS REMAINS (MOISTENS UP 700MB AND ABOVE TONIGHT). PRETTY
POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND JET IMPACT AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND MOISTURE 700MB AND ABOVE DUE TO LIFT MAY PRODUCE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER EXTREME EASTERN AREAS AND COASTAL WATERS
(MAINLY CLOUDS THOUGH). HOWEVER...SINCE SPRINKLES WILL NOT MENTION.
WILL GO WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO PRECLUDE SOME SUN AT
LEAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN AREA GETS ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF
UPPER SYSTEM. AM GOING TO GO ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MORE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR
TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH. WIND FORECAST GENERALLY A BLEND OF RUC13 AND
NAM12 FOR THE MORNING...THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM AND MOS FOR THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WILL ADJUST SCA TO KEEP THE
NEARSHORE IN A BIT LONGER (TIL ABOUT NOON)...AND THE OFFSHORE TIL
ABOUT 5 PM...GIVEN WIND AND WAVE FORECAST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD
OFF ON HAVING AN SCA FOR THAT AT THIS TIME SINCE 3RD PERIOD AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL TAPER OFF SOME TONIGHT (AND BORDERLINE SCA AT
THAT). WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A PEEK AT THIS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...GENERALLY BENIGN
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT A FEW DETAILS TO
CONSIDER IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
EAST OF THE AREA AT ONSET OF LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOULD BE CLEARING
OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT...IF NOT ALREADY CLEARED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR FILTERS IN WITH REINFORCING RIDGE WITH PWATS
WELL BELOW HALF INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FRI EVENING AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENT THAT AIR WILL STILL BE DRY FOR FRIDAY EVENING SHORT
WAVE...BUT SUNDAY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POPS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED LATE IN THE WEEK. AT
THIS TIME WITH A MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST...NOT
THINKING TOO HIGHLY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FOR THE WEEK SHOULD BE WAVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES...BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY BACK IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  45  69  44  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  41  64  41  70  /   0  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            68  48  69  41  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             67  43  70  41  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  48  65  52  69  /   0  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           66  42  67  39  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        68  44  69  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  52  68  50  69  /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 241807
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1207 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY
LGT/MODERATE N/NE SFC WIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...VFR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EASTERN TAFS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WINDS MAY PICK UP A TAD
WITH IT TOO...BUT NOTHING ABOVE 11 KNOTS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TOO DRY
NEAR THE SURFACE FOR SHOWERS...AND THAT DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER AND
MID LEVELS REMAINS (MOISTENS UP 700MB AND ABOVE TONIGHT). PRETTY
POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND JET IMPACT AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND MOISTURE 700MB AND ABOVE DUE TO LIFT MAY PRODUCE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER EXTREME EASTERN AREAS AND COASTAL WATERS
(MAINLY CLOUDS THOUGH). HOWEVER...SINCE SPRINKLES WILL NOT MENTION.
WILL GO WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO PRECLUDE SOME SUN AT
LEAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN AREA GETS ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF
UPPER SYSTEM. AM GOING TO GO ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MORE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR
TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH. WIND FORECAST GENERALLY A BLEND OF RUC13 AND
NAM12 FOR THE MORNING...THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM AND MOS FOR THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WILL ADJUST SCA TO KEEP THE
NEARSHORE IN A BIT LONGER (TIL ABOUT NOON)...AND THE OFFSHORE TIL
ABOUT 5 PM...GIVEN WIND AND WAVE FORECAST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD
OFF ON HAVING AN SCA FOR THAT AT THIS TIME SINCE 3RD PERIOD AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL TAPER OFF SOME TONIGHT (AND BORDERLINE SCA AT
THAT). WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A PEEK AT THIS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...GENERALLY BENIGN
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT A FEW DETAILS TO
CONSIDER IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
EAST OF THE AREA AT ONSET OF LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOULD BE CLEARING
OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT...IF NOT ALREADY CLEARED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR FILTERS IN WITH REINFORCING RIDGE WITH PWATS
WELL BELOW HALF INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FRI EVENING AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENT THAT AIR WILL STILL BE DRY FOR FRIDAY EVENING SHORT
WAVE...BUT SUNDAY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POPS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED LATE IN THE WEEK. AT
THIS TIME WITH A MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST...NOT
THINKING TOO HIGHLY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FOR THE WEEK SHOULD BE WAVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES...BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY BACK IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  45  69  44  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  41  64  41  70  /   0  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            68  48  69  41  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             67  43  70  41  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  48  65  52  69  /   0  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           66  42  67  39  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        68  44  69  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  52  68  50  69  /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 241114 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
514 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EASTERN TAFS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WINDS MAY PICK UP A TAD
WITH IT TOO...BUT NOTHING ABOVE 11 KNOTS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TOO DRY
NEAR THE SURFACE FOR SHOWERS...AND THAT DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER AND
MID LEVELS REMAINS (MOISTENS UP 700MB AND ABOVE TONIGHT). PRETTY
POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND JET IMPACT AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND MOISTURE 700MB AND ABOVE DUE TO LIFT MAY PRODUCE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER EXTREME EASTERN AREAS AND COASTAL WATERS
(MAINLY CLOUDS THOUGH). HOWEVER...SINCE SPRINKLES WILL NOT MENTION.
WILL GO WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO PRECLUDE SOME SUN AT
LEAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN AREA GETS ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF
UPPER SYSTEM. AM GOING TO GO ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MORE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR
TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH. WIND FORECAST GENERALLY A BLEND OF RUC13 AND
NAM12 FOR THE MORNING...THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM AND MOS FOR THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WILL ADJUST SCA TO KEEP THE
NEARSHORE IN A BIT LONGER (TIL ABOUT NOON)...AND THE OFFSHORE TIL
ABOUT 5 PM...GIVEN WIND AND WAVE FORECAST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD
OFF ON HAVING AN SCA FOR THAT AT THIS TIME SINCE 3RD PERIOD AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL TAPER OFF SOME TONIGHT (AND BORDERLINE SCA AT
THAT). WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A PEEK AT THIS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...GENERALLY BENIGN
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT A FEW DETAILS TO
CONSIDER IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
EAST OF THE AREA AT ONSET OF LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOULD BE CLEARING
OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT...IF NOT ALREADY CLEARED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR FILTERS IN WITH REINFORCING RIDGE WITH PWATS
WELL BELOW HALF INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FRI EVENING AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENT THAT AIR WILL STILL BE DRY FOR FRIDAY EVENING SHORT
WAVE...BUT SUNDAY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POPS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED LATE IN THE WEEK. AT
THIS TIME WITH A MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST...NOT
THINKING TOO HIGHLY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FOR THE WEEK SHOULD BE WAVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES...BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY BACK IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  45  69  44  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  41  64  41  70  /   0  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            68  48  69  41  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             67  43  70  41  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  48  65  52  69  /   0  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           66  42  67  39  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        68  44  69  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  52  68  50  69  /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 241114 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
514 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EASTERN TAFS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WINDS MAY PICK UP A TAD
WITH IT TOO...BUT NOTHING ABOVE 11 KNOTS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TOO DRY
NEAR THE SURFACE FOR SHOWERS...AND THAT DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER AND
MID LEVELS REMAINS (MOISTENS UP 700MB AND ABOVE TONIGHT). PRETTY
POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND JET IMPACT AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND MOISTURE 700MB AND ABOVE DUE TO LIFT MAY PRODUCE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER EXTREME EASTERN AREAS AND COASTAL WATERS
(MAINLY CLOUDS THOUGH). HOWEVER...SINCE SPRINKLES WILL NOT MENTION.
WILL GO WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO PRECLUDE SOME SUN AT
LEAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN AREA GETS ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF
UPPER SYSTEM. AM GOING TO GO ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MORE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR
TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH. WIND FORECAST GENERALLY A BLEND OF RUC13 AND
NAM12 FOR THE MORNING...THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM AND MOS FOR THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WILL ADJUST SCA TO KEEP THE
NEARSHORE IN A BIT LONGER (TIL ABOUT NOON)...AND THE OFFSHORE TIL
ABOUT 5 PM...GIVEN WIND AND WAVE FORECAST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD
OFF ON HAVING AN SCA FOR THAT AT THIS TIME SINCE 3RD PERIOD AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL TAPER OFF SOME TONIGHT (AND BORDERLINE SCA AT
THAT). WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A PEEK AT THIS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...GENERALLY BENIGN
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT A FEW DETAILS TO
CONSIDER IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
EAST OF THE AREA AT ONSET OF LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOULD BE CLEARING
OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT...IF NOT ALREADY CLEARED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR FILTERS IN WITH REINFORCING RIDGE WITH PWATS
WELL BELOW HALF INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FRI EVENING AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENT THAT AIR WILL STILL BE DRY FOR FRIDAY EVENING SHORT
WAVE...BUT SUNDAY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POPS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED LATE IN THE WEEK. AT
THIS TIME WITH A MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST...NOT
THINKING TOO HIGHLY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FOR THE WEEK SHOULD BE WAVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES...BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY BACK IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  45  69  44  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  41  64  41  70  /   0  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            68  48  69  41  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             67  43  70  41  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  48  65  52  69  /   0  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           66  42  67  39  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        68  44  69  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  52  68  50  69  /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 240920
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
320 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TOO DRY
NEAR THE SURFACE FOR SHOWERS...AND THAT DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER AND
MID LEVELS REMAINS (MOISTENS UP 700MB AND ABOVE TONIGHT). PRETTY
POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND JET IMPACT AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND MOISTURE 700MB AND ABOVE DUE TO LIFT MAY PRODUCE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER EXTREME EASTERN AREAS AND COASTAL WATERS
(MAINLY CLOUDS THOUGH). HOWEVER...SINCE SPRINKLES WILL NOT MENTION.
WILL GO WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO PRECLUDE SOME SUN AT
LEAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN AREA GETS ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF
UPPER SYSTEM. AM GOING TO GO ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MORE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR
TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH. WIND FORECAST GENERALLY A BLEND OF RUC13 AND
NAM12 FOR THE MORNING...THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM AND MOS FOR THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WILL ADJUST SCA TO KEEP THE
NEARSHORE IN A BIT LONGER (TIL ABOUT NOON)...AND THE OFFSHORE TIL
ABOUT 5 PM...GIVEN WIND AND WAVE FORECAST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD
OFF ON HAVING AN SCA FOR THAT AT THIS TIME SINCE 3RD PERIOD AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL TAPER OFF SOME TONIGHT (AND BORDERLINE SCA AT
THAT). WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A PEEK AT THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...GENERALLY BENIGN
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT A FEW DETAILS TO
CONSIDER IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
EAST OF THE AREA AT ONSET OF LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOULD BE CLEARING
OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT...IF NOT ALREADY CLEARED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR FILTERS IN WITH REINFORCING RIDGE WITH PWATS
WELL BELOW HALF INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FRI EVENING AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENT THAT AIR WILL STILL BE DRY FOR FRIDAY EVENING SHORT
WAVE...BUT SUNDAY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POPS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED LATE IN THE WEEK. AT
THIS TIME WITH A MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST...NOT
THINKING TOO HIGHLY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FOR THE WEEK SHOULD BE WAVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES...BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY BACK IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  45  69  44  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  41  64  41  70  /   0  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            68  48  69  41  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             67  43  70  41  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  48  65  52  69  /   0  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           66  42  67  39  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        68  44  69  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  52  68  50  69  /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 240653 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...JUST A QUICK GRID UPDATE TO MATCH TEMPERATURES
BETTER WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND HANDLE COLD FRONT. WILL MAKE OTHER
CHANGES (MAINLY MINOR) FOR MORNING PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW

AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. COLD FRONT IS ON SCHEDULE TO
MOVE THROUGH AREA TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-08Z WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING 20-23KTS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND THROUGH MIDDAY MON BEFORE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING BY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION....SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-08Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY 18-19Z MONDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH THE SFC REFLECTION MOVG ACRS THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. NOTWITHSTANDING LOW RH
VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN...WIND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH STG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PER 1000-700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA. YET...LIMITED MSTR WL
PRECLUDE PCPN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CLOUDS NEVERTHELESS. COLD
TEMPEATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
OVER THE EXTREME NRN CWA. YET...WL FCST LOWS IN THE 40S ACRS THE
CWA GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD COVER.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...AS THE FOREGOING COLD
FRONT MOVES ACRS THE MSA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP...CONSISTENT WITH NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT...AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES ACRS THE WARMER SEA SFC (65-70F
NEARSHORE AND 70-75F OFFSHORE PER SPORT SST COMPOSITE.) YET...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z
MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ONE LAST UPPER SYS WILL DIG
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY INITIATING A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF.  PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP ENUF OFFSHORE THAT WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDS BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY LETS UP TUE AFTN.
COULD ALSO SEE ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE AND WILL
INCLUDE 20 POPS ERLY TUE.  OTHW THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK HELPING TO KEEP
OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTD WARMUP.  LEANED TWRD THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
OVER THE MUCH COOLER HPC READINGS FOR HIGHS.  COULD SEE A FEW SHRA
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    45  69  42  71  48  /  10  10   0   0   0
VICTORIA          41  64  38  69  45  /  10  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            48  69  41  73  47  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             43  70  41  72  45  /  10  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          48  65  44  67  53  /  10  20   0   0   0
COTULLA           42  67  38  73  43  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        44  69  42  72  46  /  10  10   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       52  68  49  68  53  /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 240653 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...JUST A QUICK GRID UPDATE TO MATCH TEMPERATURES
BETTER WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND HANDLE COLD FRONT. WILL MAKE OTHER
CHANGES (MAINLY MINOR) FOR MORNING PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW

AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. COLD FRONT IS ON SCHEDULE TO
MOVE THROUGH AREA TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-08Z WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING 20-23KTS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND THROUGH MIDDAY MON BEFORE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING BY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION....SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-08Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY 18-19Z MONDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH THE SFC REFLECTION MOVG ACRS THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. NOTWITHSTANDING LOW RH
VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN...WIND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH STG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PER 1000-700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA. YET...LIMITED MSTR WL
PRECLUDE PCPN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CLOUDS NEVERTHELESS. COLD
TEMPEATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
OVER THE EXTREME NRN CWA. YET...WL FCST LOWS IN THE 40S ACRS THE
CWA GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD COVER.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...AS THE FOREGOING COLD
FRONT MOVES ACRS THE MSA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP...CONSISTENT WITH NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT...AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES ACRS THE WARMER SEA SFC (65-70F
NEARSHORE AND 70-75F OFFSHORE PER SPORT SST COMPOSITE.) YET...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z
MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ONE LAST UPPER SYS WILL DIG
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY INITIATING A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF.  PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP ENUF OFFSHORE THAT WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDS BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY LETS UP TUE AFTN.
COULD ALSO SEE ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE AND WILL
INCLUDE 20 POPS ERLY TUE.  OTHW THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK HELPING TO KEEP
OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTD WARMUP.  LEANED TWRD THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
OVER THE MUCH COOLER HPC READINGS FOR HIGHS.  COULD SEE A FEW SHRA
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    45  69  42  71  48  /  10  10   0   0   0
VICTORIA          41  64  38  69  45  /  10  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            48  69  41  73  47  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             43  70  41  72  45  /  10  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          48  65  44  67  53  /  10  20   0   0   0
COTULLA           42  67  38  73  43  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        44  69  42  72  46  /  10  10   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       52  68  49  68  53  /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 240454
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1054 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNFICIANT CHANGES. COLD FRONT IS ON SCHEDULE TO
MOVE THROUGH AREA TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-08Z WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING 20-23KTS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND THROUGH MIDDAY MON BEFORE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING BY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION....SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-08Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY 18-19Z MONDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH THE SFC REFLECTION MOVG ACRS THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. NOTWITHSTANDING LOW RH
VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN...WIND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH STG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PER 1000-700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA. YET...LIMITED MSTR WL
PRECLUDE PCPN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CLOUDS NEVERTHELESS. COLD
TEMPEATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
OVER THE EXTREME NRN CWA. YET...WL FCST LOWS IN THE 40S ACRS THE
CWA GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD COVER.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...AS THE FOREGOING COLD
FRONT MOVES ACRS THE MSA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP...CONSISTENT WITH NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT...AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES ACRS THE WARMER SEA SFC (65-70F
NEARSHORE AND 70-75F OFFSHORE PER SPORT SST COMPOSITE.) YET...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z
MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ONE LAST UPPER SYS WILL DIG
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY INITIATING A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF.  PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP ENUF OFFSHORE THAT WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDS BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY LETS UP TUE AFTN.
COULD ALSO SEE ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE AND WILL
INCLUDE 20 POPS ERLY TUE.  OTHW THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK HELPING TO KEEP
OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTD WARMUP.  LEANED TWRD THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
OVER THE MUCH COOLER HPC READINGS FOR HIGHS.  COULD SEE A FEW SHRA
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  66  45  69  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
VICTORIA          46  67  40  66  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
LAREDO            49  69  49  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             48  67  44  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          51  67  48  67  44  /   0   0  10  20   0
COTULLA           45  67  41  67  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        50  65  43  70  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  66  52  68  49  /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 240454
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1054 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNFICIANT CHANGES. COLD FRONT IS ON SCHEDULE TO
MOVE THROUGH AREA TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-08Z WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING 20-23KTS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND THROUGH MIDDAY MON BEFORE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING BY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION....SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-08Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY 18-19Z MONDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH THE SFC REFLECTION MOVG ACRS THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. NOTWITHSTANDING LOW RH
VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN...WIND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH STG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PER 1000-700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA. YET...LIMITED MSTR WL
PRECLUDE PCPN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CLOUDS NEVERTHELESS. COLD
TEMPEATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
OVER THE EXTREME NRN CWA. YET...WL FCST LOWS IN THE 40S ACRS THE
CWA GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD COVER.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...AS THE FOREGOING COLD
FRONT MOVES ACRS THE MSA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP...CONSISTENT WITH NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT...AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES ACRS THE WARMER SEA SFC (65-70F
NEARSHORE AND 70-75F OFFSHORE PER SPORT SST COMPOSITE.) YET...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z
MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ONE LAST UPPER SYS WILL DIG
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY INITIATING A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF.  PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP ENUF OFFSHORE THAT WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDS BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY LETS UP TUE AFTN.
COULD ALSO SEE ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE AND WILL
INCLUDE 20 POPS ERLY TUE.  OTHW THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK HELPING TO KEEP
OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTD WARMUP.  LEANED TWRD THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
OVER THE MUCH COOLER HPC READINGS FOR HIGHS.  COULD SEE A FEW SHRA
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  66  45  69  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
VICTORIA          46  67  40  66  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
LAREDO            49  69  49  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             48  67  44  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          51  67  48  67  44  /   0   0  10  20   0
COTULLA           45  67  41  67  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        50  65  43  70  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  66  52  68  49  /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232352
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
552 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION....SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-08Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY 18-19Z MONDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH THE SFC REFLECTION MOVG ACRS THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. NOTWITHSTANDING LOW RH
VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN...WIND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH STG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PER 1000-700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA. YET...LIMITED MSTR WL
PRECLUDE PCPN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CLOUDS NEVERTHELESS. COLD
TEMPEATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
OVER THE EXTREME NRN CWA. YET...WL FCST LOWS IN THE 40S ACRS THE
CWA GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD COVER.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...AS THE FOREGOING COLD
FRONT MOVES ACRS THE MSA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP...CONSISTENT WITH NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT...AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES ACRS THE WARMER SEA SFC (65-70F
NEARSHORE AND 70-75F OFFSHORE PER SPORT SST COMPOSITE.) YET...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z
MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ONE LAST UPPER SYS WILL DIG
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY INITIATING A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF.  PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP ENUF OFFSHORE THAT WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDS BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY LETS UP TUE AFTN.
COULD ALSO SEE ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE AND WILL
INCLUDE 20 POPS ERLY TUE.  OTHW THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK HELPING TO KEEP
OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTD WARMUP.  LEANED TWRD THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
OVER THE MUCH COOLER HPC READINGS FOR HIGHS.  COULD SEE A FEW SHRA
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  66  45  69  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
VICTORIA          46  67  40  66  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
LAREDO            49  69  49  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             48  67  44  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          51  67  48  67  44  /   0   0  10  20   0
COTULLA           45  67  41  67  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        50  65  43  70  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  66  52  68  49  /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232352
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
552 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION....SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-08Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY 18-19Z MONDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH THE SFC REFLECTION MOVG ACRS THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. NOTWITHSTANDING LOW RH
VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN...WIND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH STG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PER 1000-700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA. YET...LIMITED MSTR WL
PRECLUDE PCPN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CLOUDS NEVERTHELESS. COLD
TEMPEATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
OVER THE EXTREME NRN CWA. YET...WL FCST LOWS IN THE 40S ACRS THE
CWA GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD COVER.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...AS THE FOREGOING COLD
FRONT MOVES ACRS THE MSA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP...CONSISTENT WITH NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT...AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES ACRS THE WARMER SEA SFC (65-70F
NEARSHORE AND 70-75F OFFSHORE PER SPORT SST COMPOSITE.) YET...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z
MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ONE LAST UPPER SYS WILL DIG
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY INITIATING A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF.  PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP ENUF OFFSHORE THAT WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDS BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY LETS UP TUE AFTN.
COULD ALSO SEE ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE AND WILL
INCLUDE 20 POPS ERLY TUE.  OTHW THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK HELPING TO KEEP
OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTD WARMUP.  LEANED TWRD THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
OVER THE MUCH COOLER HPC READINGS FOR HIGHS.  COULD SEE A FEW SHRA
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  66  45  69  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
VICTORIA          46  67  40  66  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
LAREDO            49  69  49  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             48  67  44  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          51  67  48  67  44  /   0   0  10  20   0
COTULLA           45  67  41  67  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        50  65  43  70  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  66  52  68  49  /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 232201 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
347 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH THE SFC REFLECTION MOVG ACRS THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. NOTWITHSTANDING LOW RH
VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN...WIND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH STG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PER 1000-700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA. YET...LIMITED MSTR WL
PRECLUDE PCPN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CLOUDS NEVERTHELESS. COLD
TEMPEATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
OVER THE EXTREME NRN CWA. YET...WL FCST LOWS IN THE 40S ACRS THE
CWA GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...AS THE FOREGOING COLD
FRONT MOVES ACRS THE MSA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP...CONSISTENT WITH NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT...AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES ACRS THE WARMER SEA SFC (65-70F
NEARSHORE AND 70-75F OFFSHORE PER SPORT SST COMPOSITE.) YET...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z
MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ONE LAST UPPER SYS WILL DIG
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY INITIATING A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF.  PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP ENUF OFFSHORE THAT WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDS BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY LETS UP TUE AFTN.
COULD ALSO SEE ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE AND WILL
INCLUDE 20 POPS ERLY TUE.  OTHW THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK HELPING TO KEEP
OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTD WARMUP.  LEANED TWRD THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
OVER THE MUCH COOLER HPC READINGS FOR HIGHS.  COULD SEE A FEW SHRA
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  66  45  69  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
VICTORIA          46  67  40  66  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
LAREDO            49  69  49  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             48  67  44  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          51  67  48  67  44  /   0   0  10  20   0
COTULLA           45  67  41  67  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        50  65  43  70  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  66  52  68  49  /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 232201 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
347 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH THE SFC REFLECTION MOVG ACRS THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. NOTWITHSTANDING LOW RH
VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN...WIND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH STG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PER 1000-700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA. YET...LIMITED MSTR WL
PRECLUDE PCPN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CLOUDS NEVERTHELESS. COLD
TEMPEATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
OVER THE EXTREME NRN CWA. YET...WL FCST LOWS IN THE 40S ACRS THE
CWA GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...AS THE FOREGOING COLD
FRONT MOVES ACRS THE MSA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP...CONSISTENT WITH NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT...AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES ACRS THE WARMER SEA SFC (65-70F
NEARSHORE AND 70-75F OFFSHORE PER SPORT SST COMPOSITE.) YET...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z
MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ONE LAST UPPER SYS WILL DIG
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY INITIATING A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF.  PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP ENUF OFFSHORE THAT WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDS BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY LETS UP TUE AFTN.
COULD ALSO SEE ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE AND WILL
INCLUDE 20 POPS ERLY TUE.  OTHW THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK HELPING TO KEEP
OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTD WARMUP.  LEANED TWRD THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
OVER THE MUCH COOLER HPC READINGS FOR HIGHS.  COULD SEE A FEW SHRA
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  66  45  69  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
VICTORIA          46  67  40  66  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
LAREDO            49  69  49  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             48  67  44  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          51  67  48  67  44  /   0   0  10  20   0
COTULLA           45  67  41  67  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        50  65  43  70  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  66  52  68  49  /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232201 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
347 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH THE SFC REFLECTION MOVG ACRS THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. NOTWITHSTANDING LOW RH
VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN...WIND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH STG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PER 1000-700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA. YET...LIMITED MSTR WL
PRECLUDE PCPN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CLOUDS NEVERTHELESS. COLD
TEMPEATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
OVER THE EXTREME NRN CWA. YET...WL FCST LOWS IN THE 40S ACRS THE
CWA GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...AS THE FOREGOING COLD
FRONT MOVES ACRS THE MSA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP...CONSISTENT WITH NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT...AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES ACRS THE WARMER SEA SFC (65-70F
NEARSHORE AND 70-75F OFFSHORE PER SPORT SST COMPOSITE.) YET...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z
MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ONE LAST UPPER SYS WILL DIG
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY INITIATING A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF.  PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP ENUF OFFSHORE THAT WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDS BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY LETS UP TUE AFTN.
COULD ALSO SEE ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE AND WILL
INCLUDE 20 POPS ERLY TUE.  OTHW THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK HELPING TO KEEP
OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTD WARMUP.  LEANED TWRD THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
OVER THE MUCH COOLER HPC READINGS FOR HIGHS.  COULD SEE A FEW SHRA
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  66  45  69  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
VICTORIA          46  67  40  66  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
LAREDO            49  69  49  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             48  67  44  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          51  67  48  67  44  /   0   0  10  20   0
COTULLA           45  67  41  67  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        50  65  43  70  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  66  52  68  49  /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232201 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
347 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH THE SFC REFLECTION MOVG ACRS THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. NOTWITHSTANDING LOW RH
VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN...WIND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH STG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PER 1000-700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA. YET...LIMITED MSTR WL
PRECLUDE PCPN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CLOUDS NEVERTHELESS. COLD
TEMPEATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
OVER THE EXTREME NRN CWA. YET...WL FCST LOWS IN THE 40S ACRS THE
CWA GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...AS THE FOREGOING COLD
FRONT MOVES ACRS THE MSA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP...CONSISTENT WITH NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT...AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES ACRS THE WARMER SEA SFC (65-70F
NEARSHORE AND 70-75F OFFSHORE PER SPORT SST COMPOSITE.) YET...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z
MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ONE LAST UPPER SYS WILL DIG
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY INITIATING A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF.  PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP ENUF OFFSHORE THAT WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDS BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY LETS UP TUE AFTN.
COULD ALSO SEE ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE AND WILL
INCLUDE 20 POPS ERLY TUE.  OTHW THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK HELPING TO KEEP
OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTD WARMUP.  LEANED TWRD THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
OVER THE MUCH COOLER HPC READINGS FOR HIGHS.  COULD SEE A FEW SHRA
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  66  45  69  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
VICTORIA          46  67  40  66  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
LAREDO            49  69  49  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             48  67  44  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          51  67  48  67  44  /   0   0  10  20   0
COTULLA           45  67  41  67  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        50  65  43  70  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  66  52  68  49  /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 232141
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH THE SFC REFLECTION MOVG ACRS THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS PROG ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...WITH STG SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT PER 1000-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...TO MOVE ACRS THE
CWA/MSA. YET...LIMITED MSTR WL PRECLUDE PCPN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE
CLOUDS NEVERTHELESS. NOTWITHSTANDING LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTN...WIND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE FOREGOING COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE MSA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP...CONSISTENT WITH NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT...
AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES ACRS THE WARMER SEA SFC (65-70F NEARSHORE
AND 70-75F OFFSHORE PER SPORT SST COMPOSITE.) YET...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z MONDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ONE LAST UPPER SYS WILL DIG
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY INITIATING A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF.  PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP ENUF OFFSHORE THAT WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDS BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY LETS UP TUE AFTN.
COULD ALSO SEE ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE AND WILL
INCLUDE 20 POPS ERLY TUE.  OTHW THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK HELPING TO KEEP
OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTD WARMUP.  LEANED TWRD THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
OVER THE MUCH COOLER HPC READINGS FOR HIGHS.  COULD SEE A FEW SHRA
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  66  45  69  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
VICTORIA          46  67  40  66  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
LAREDO            49  69  49  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             48  67  44  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          51  67  48  67  44  /   0   0  10  20   0
COTULLA           45  67  41  67  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        50  65  43  70  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  66  52  68  49  /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 232141
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH THE SFC REFLECTION MOVG ACRS THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS PROG ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...WITH STG SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT PER 1000-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...TO MOVE ACRS THE
CWA/MSA. YET...LIMITED MSTR WL PRECLUDE PCPN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE
CLOUDS NEVERTHELESS. NOTWITHSTANDING LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTN...WIND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE FOREGOING COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE MSA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP...CONSISTENT WITH NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT...
AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES ACRS THE WARMER SEA SFC (65-70F NEARSHORE
AND 70-75F OFFSHORE PER SPORT SST COMPOSITE.) YET...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z MONDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ONE LAST UPPER SYS WILL DIG
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY INITIATING A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF.  PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP ENUF OFFSHORE THAT WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDS BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY LETS UP TUE AFTN.
COULD ALSO SEE ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE AND WILL
INCLUDE 20 POPS ERLY TUE.  OTHW THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK HELPING TO KEEP
OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTD WARMUP.  LEANED TWRD THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
OVER THE MUCH COOLER HPC READINGS FOR HIGHS.  COULD SEE A FEW SHRA
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  66  45  69  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
VICTORIA          46  67  40  66  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
LAREDO            49  69  49  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             48  67  44  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          51  67  48  67  44  /   0   0  10  20   0
COTULLA           45  67  41  67  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        50  65  43  70  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  66  52  68  49  /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231757
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1157 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. SFC WIND
WILL TRANSITION FROM WEAK/MODERATE W/SW THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING TO
INCREASING NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BREEZY NORTH WIND ANTICIPATED
NEAR THE COAST DRG THE 12-18Z MONDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AREA OF LOW STRATUS
AND FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ALI AND CRP THROUGH 14Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BY 15Z WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH TEXAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH DRY AIR MASS...SKY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE FOR CRP
AND VCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING TO EAST TEXAAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR COVERING SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
FOR THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO WARM CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S...5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR MONDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED
OVER THE GULF WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS AGAIN AND LAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS MONDAY...THEN DECREASE TO SCEC LEVELS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT TO TALK ABOUT IN THE EXTENDED. FROPA BRINGS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR...BUT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING
MECHANISM (DUAL JET AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) WOULD HAVE PROVIDED
SOME PRECIPITATION IF IT WAS NOT SO DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. COULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE THIS
MOVES OUT (MAINLY OVER THE WATERS) BUT DID NOT MENTION THIS AT THIS
TIME. WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS.
GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY KEEP ZONAL FLOW IN THE AREA STARTING THIS
WEEKEND...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY RAIN CHANCES. BY SUNDAY ENOUGH
MOISTURE COULD BE PRESENT FOR SOME SHOWERS EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA...BUT TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO MENTION THEM IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO THERE IS A SORT-OF CUT-OFF TROUGH DURING THAT TIME WHICH COULD
SLIGHTLY HELP TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. OVERALL...LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT
INCREASED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT TOO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  51  69  47  69  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          83  47  67  42  66  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  51  71  48  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  49  70  45  70  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  52  68  48  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           84  46  69  41  67  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        85  50  70  45  70  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  54  68  54  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231757
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1157 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. SFC WIND
WILL TRANSITION FROM WEAK/MODERATE W/SW THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING TO
INCREASING NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BREEZY NORTH WIND ANTICIPATED
NEAR THE COAST DRG THE 12-18Z MONDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AREA OF LOW STRATUS
AND FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ALI AND CRP THROUGH 14Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BY 15Z WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH TEXAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH DRY AIR MASS...SKY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE FOR CRP
AND VCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING TO EAST TEXAAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR COVERING SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
FOR THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO WARM CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S...5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR MONDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED
OVER THE GULF WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS AGAIN AND LAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS MONDAY...THEN DECREASE TO SCEC LEVELS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT TO TALK ABOUT IN THE EXTENDED. FROPA BRINGS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR...BUT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING
MECHANISM (DUAL JET AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) WOULD HAVE PROVIDED
SOME PRECIPITATION IF IT WAS NOT SO DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. COULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE THIS
MOVES OUT (MAINLY OVER THE WATERS) BUT DID NOT MENTION THIS AT THIS
TIME. WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS.
GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY KEEP ZONAL FLOW IN THE AREA STARTING THIS
WEEKEND...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY RAIN CHANCES. BY SUNDAY ENOUGH
MOISTURE COULD BE PRESENT FOR SOME SHOWERS EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA...BUT TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO MENTION THEM IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO THERE IS A SORT-OF CUT-OFF TROUGH DURING THAT TIME WHICH COULD
SLIGHTLY HELP TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. OVERALL...LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT
INCREASED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT TOO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  51  69  47  69  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          83  47  67  42  66  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  51  71  48  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  49  70  45  70  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  52  68  48  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           84  46  69  41  67  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        85  50  70  45  70  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  54  68  54  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 231131 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
531 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AREA OF LOW STRATUS
AND FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ALI AND CRP THROUGH 14Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BY 15Z WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH TEXAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH DRY AIR MASS...SKY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE FOR CRP
AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING TO EAST TEXAAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR COVERING SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
FOR THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO WARM CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S...5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR MONDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED
OVER THE GULF WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS AGAIN AND LAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS MONDAY...THEN DECREASE TO SCEC LEVELS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT TO TALK ABOUT IN THE EXTENDED. FROPA BRINGS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR...BUT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING
MECHANISM (DUAL JET AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) WOULD HAVE PROVIDED
SOME PRECIPITATION IF IT WAS NOT SO DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. COULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE THIS
MOVES OUT (MAINLY OVER THE WATERS) BUT DID NOT MENTION THIS AT THIS
TIME. WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS.
GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY KEEP ZONAL FLOW IN THE AREA STARTING THIS
WEEKEND...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY RAIN CHANCES. BY SUNDAY ENOUGH
MOISTURE COULD BE PRESENT FOR SOME SHOWERS EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA...BUT TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO MENTION THEM IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO THERE IS A SORT-OF CUT-OFF TROUGH DURING THAT TIME WHICH COULD
SLIGHTLY HELP TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. OVERALL...LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT
INCREASED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT TOO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  51  69  47  69  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          83  47  67  42  66  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  51  71  48  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  49  70  45  70  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  52  68  48  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           84  46  69  41  67  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        85  50  70  45  70  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  54  68  54  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 231131 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
531 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AREA OF LOW STRATUS
AND FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ALI AND CRP THROUGH 14Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BY 15Z WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH TEXAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH DRY AIR MASS...SKY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE FOR CRP
AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING TO EAST TEXAAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR COVERING SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
FOR THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO WARM CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S...5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR MONDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED
OVER THE GULF WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS AGAIN AND LAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS MONDAY...THEN DECREASE TO SCEC LEVELS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT TO TALK ABOUT IN THE EXTENDED. FROPA BRINGS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR...BUT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING
MECHANISM (DUAL JET AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) WOULD HAVE PROVIDED
SOME PRECIPITATION IF IT WAS NOT SO DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. COULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE THIS
MOVES OUT (MAINLY OVER THE WATERS) BUT DID NOT MENTION THIS AT THIS
TIME. WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS.
GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY KEEP ZONAL FLOW IN THE AREA STARTING THIS
WEEKEND...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY RAIN CHANCES. BY SUNDAY ENOUGH
MOISTURE COULD BE PRESENT FOR SOME SHOWERS EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA...BUT TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO MENTION THEM IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO THERE IS A SORT-OF CUT-OFF TROUGH DURING THAT TIME WHICH COULD
SLIGHTLY HELP TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. OVERALL...LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT
INCREASED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT TOO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  51  69  47  69  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          83  47  67  42  66  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  51  71  48  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  49  70  45  70  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  52  68  48  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           84  46  69  41  67  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        85  50  70  45  70  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  54  68  54  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






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